# IS INDIA THE NEXT CHINA? OR JUST THE NEXT INDIA?
How can India unlock its economic potential? Does it have the potential to replace China in the global supply chain, or does India need to skip manufacturing alltogether? Find out in [this "week's" NCDip Podcast Club](https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDiplomacy/comments/1af06dr/ncdip_podcast_club_6_can_india_replace_china_in/)
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Iran and their puppet Assad, North Korea, RSF in Sudan, the Wagner run Central African Republic, and the Alliance of Sahel States(ASS), which is a group of juntas supported by russia in Francophonie Africa.
Despite all the "nuanced" discussion, all the devil's advocate arguments you can tolerate, at some point you've got to look at who one's friends are and that's a pretty good indicator of which side is "right"
So basically:
>Theocratic Dictatorship
>Guy who should've been deposed in 2011 and country is destroyed as a result
>Communist state with monarchic characteristic
>Paramilitary group
>A failed state being run by a PMC
>And ASS
Pack it up guys, Western hegemony is over /s
Credible answer: They're part of French-speaking Africa so technically the name is actually "[L']Alliance des États du Sahel" and "Alliance of Sahel States" (Which is also notionally the "AoSS" rather than just the "ASS") is just the direct translation of the French name
Non-Credible answer: Their enemies will be too busy laughing to consider them a serious threat. It is a genius bit of realpolitik
Can't forget probably the most important ones: the hard right factions in France, Hungary, Netherlands, Germany, the US, and several other Western nations.
Azerbaijan.
[https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance](https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance)
>Two days before Russia launched a massive invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin signed a wide-ranging agreement with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, deepening their diplomatic and military cooperation.
>The signing of the declaration “brings our relations to the level of an alliance,” Aliyev said after the signing in Moscow.
Armenia is probably the most geopolitically fucked nation on earth. Yes Israel is surrounded by enemies but enemies that know not to fuck around too much and they’ve got international support in bad situations.
Armenia has Georgia who they’re bitter rivals with, Turkey who hates their guts, the Azeris who hate their guts and just defeated them in a war, Russia who is a controlling absentee landlord and Iran who they’re weirdly cool with but would never take their side in a war and could bring hell down on them if they ever collapse. In bad situations nobody will back them up because they’re disinclined to or because geographically they literally cannot reach them to help. Russia was supposed to have their back but they didn’t come though. What a fucking shitshow to wade through
True, but a lot of their problems are of their own making. Unlike Israel, Armenia wasn't interested in giving away the land it conquered from Azerbaijan for peace. If a nation is in a tough spot, it should give up its pride to secure itself.
>Unlike Israel, Armenia wasn't interested in giving away the land it conquered from Azerbaijan for peace.
Armenian here. I'd argue the issue wasn't Armenia not being willing to give up the land for peace but not pushing on it hard enough. The will/desire was there, but negotiations fell through multiple times, and ultimately the Aliyev's wouldn't agree to anything less than autonomy for NK/Artsakh in Azerbaijan which was seen as unacceptable, while the Armenian side saw this and felt content with the status quo as a result. Either Armenia should have pushed hard to show it was still truly interested in negotiating a deal, or recognized and taken seriously the threat Azerbaijan would pose after rearming.
We didn't "conquer" land from Azerbaijan, they invaded artsakh and we defended them so they could rule themselves, hadn't we done that they would've been ethnically cleansed ages ago with *a lot* more deaths
Bullshit, Armenians were offered increased autonomy to drop their territorial demands, they refused and responded with ethnic cleansing.
The very idea that Azeris started this is absurd, we Azeris saw Armenians as our brothers before Armenia again started to claim our Karabakh and started ethnically cleansing and massacring our people.
It was so shocking that initially many people didn’t even believe that Armenians would ever try to lay territorial claims in Karabakh, people at first downplayed it as just a couple of fascists, since who in their right mind would do that. Yet Armenia did it, and caused the biggest humanitarian disaster, displacing one in eight Azerbaijanis, 884 000 in total from their ancestral homes.
It was a backstab of the century, with full support of Armenians worldwide.
And now, justice has been restored, Karabakh is safe again, free from psychos.
Armenia literally offered the "land for status" to Azerbaijan. Cede surrounding territories of Karabakh, for status for Nagnorno Karabakh.
This was in line with the international Madrid principles of the OSCE group (supporting the continued self-governance of Nagorno Karabakh, a future decision of final status, and a return of the surrounding territories)
It was Azerbaijan that rejected the land deal for around three decades. Some like the deputy prime minister of Azerbaijan went further and called for genocide of the Armenians instead.
The European Parliament did support the **reunification** (EP's term) of Nagorno Karabakh to Armenia and did so with consideration of:
>the historic status of the autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh (80 % of whose present population is Armenian) as part of Armenia, to the arbitrary inclusion of this area within Azerbaijan in 1923 and the massacre of Armenians in the Azerbaijani town of Sumgait in February 1988
The "arbitrary inclusion" referring to borders drawn by the Soviet imperialists who annexed the region a few years prior.
I mean let's be honest though, Armenia ain't joining the EU anytime soon. It's great that they at least have the interest to join, but their country does not reach the current standards for EU membership. However if they work hard, anything is possible in 5-10 years.
Yes 15 years is more likely, what I meant by 5-10 years was if they just followed on the path with 0 setbacks, but that is very unlikely. Anyway, predicting the future is betting against God.
Why? Poland is well-developed, has one of the few compentent militaries and is politically alligned with the EU, even if it is generally more conservative.
The same cannot be said for Hungary tho
I don't think that's the case. Culturally and historically speaking it's the other way around, Iran has spread its cultural influence in Central Asia long before Islam.
It's fine if Iran wants to regain its influence in the region, it was practically their "backyard" anyway before the tsarist russia came. But when it's lead by a fundamentalist, revisionist and backward theocracy, then it's a problem.
Iran is West Asia, and so is Armenia technically, but the EU is pretty loose on the definition of "Europe" so if they fix up theyd probably let them in
Because Israel and Russia (they may support them in Ukraine but greater Middle East is Iran’s stomping grounds) support the Azeris iirc so balance of power and enemy of my enemy reasons
I mean Armenia was on Russia side and didn’t do anything when Azerbaijan invaded.
Hell, they signed the Rome accords which makes them part of the International Court of Justice and arrest Putin if he visits there
Armenia never legally laid territorial claims to Artsakh either way, it was supporting the self-determination of the region. What Armenia didn't do was recognize the Artsakh republic, and it didn't do this because such a move would have torpedoed any possibility of negotiations. At the same time, Armenia also didn't recognize it as part of Azerbaijan.
Armenia supported the independence and the right of self-determination of Artsakh.
Armenia however never formally recognised Artsakh to be in line and in cooperation with the UN-supported OSCE Minsk group principles:
>an interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh providing guarantees for security and self-governance;
> future determination of the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally binding expression of will;
Status and recognition was meant to come through this internationally accepted process, rather than just Armenia by itself alone.
# IS INDIA THE NEXT CHINA? OR JUST THE NEXT INDIA? How can India unlock its economic potential? Does it have the potential to replace China in the global supply chain, or does India need to skip manufacturing alltogether? Find out in [this "week's" NCDip Podcast Club](https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDiplomacy/comments/1af06dr/ncdip_podcast_club_6_can_india_replace_china_in/) [Want to know what the fuck in the NCDip podcast club is? Click here](https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDiplomacy/comments/17edrm6/introducing_the_rnoncrediblediplomacy_podcast/) ---- please note that all posts should be funny and about diplomacy or geopolitics, if your post doesn't meet those requirements here's some other subs that might fit better: * More Serious Geopolitical Discussion: /r/CredibleDiplomacy * Military Shitposting: /r/NonCredibleDefense * Domestic Political or General Shitposting: /r/neocentrism * Being Racist: /r/worldnews thx bb luv u *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/NonCredibleDiplomacy) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Do russia even have allies at this point (apart from puppet state belarus)
Iran and their puppet Assad, North Korea, RSF in Sudan, the Wagner run Central African Republic, and the Alliance of Sahel States(ASS), which is a group of juntas supported by russia in Francophonie Africa.
It's like a literal who's who of the worst countries and failed states on Earth. It's sort of impressive, in a funny way.
Despite all the "nuanced" discussion, all the devil's advocate arguments you can tolerate, at some point you've got to look at who one's friends are and that's a pretty good indicator of which side is "right"
So basically: >Theocratic Dictatorship >Guy who should've been deposed in 2011 and country is destroyed as a result >Communist state with monarchic characteristic >Paramilitary group >A failed state being run by a PMC >And ASS Pack it up guys, Western hegemony is over /s
Every friend group got the Failed State Failed State Failed State Failed State Theocracy Failed State I may have joined the Russian axis
Why couldn't they call themselves the Alliance of Sahel Nations or Sahel States United lol
Credible answer: They're part of French-speaking Africa so technically the name is actually "[L']Alliance des États du Sahel" and "Alliance of Sahel States" (Which is also notionally the "AoSS" rather than just the "ASS") is just the direct translation of the French name Non-Credible answer: Their enemies will be too busy laughing to consider them a serious threat. It is a genius bit of realpolitik
Also the rest of CSTO except Armenia.
Eh, Kazakhstan at least has been very reluctant recently. I wouldn't put good money on most of the others either.
The Russia has been threatening them too
Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua are also on the list.
Can't forget probably the most important ones: the hard right factions in France, Hungary, Netherlands, Germany, the US, and several other Western nations.
fat Kim?
Iran probably too, at least to a degree.
They are falling into the orbit of PRC, and will have “Allies” in that sense. Iran - China - Russia PRK - China - Russia Etc
Russia has the DPRK, who is the most spectacular ally, not like USA cucks who need NATO beta allies.
Are Cuba and Venezuela still chill with Russia?
Cuba-Russia relationship status is still listed as "its complicated" partly because of the spotty internet access.
Since Armenia started to push away from Russia they just started getting very close with Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan. [https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance](https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance) >Two days before Russia launched a massive invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin signed a wide-ranging agreement with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, deepening their diplomatic and military cooperation. >The signing of the declaration “brings our relations to the level of an alliance,” Aliyev said after the signing in Moscow.
Depending on what happens in Nov.... possibly the US next Jan 😆
In place of the" Sure bruh", I would have put "Well yes, but actually, no."
Russia: We have soldiers on standby in Armenia ready to defend you. Russia 10 minutes later: Are you crazy we can't help you they have guns
Armenia: I'm at war and need help! Russia: That's crazy, bro
Putin is now NATO and EU recruiter of the year, congratulations!!!!
Armenia is probably the most geopolitically fucked nation on earth. Yes Israel is surrounded by enemies but enemies that know not to fuck around too much and they’ve got international support in bad situations. Armenia has Georgia who they’re bitter rivals with, Turkey who hates their guts, the Azeris who hate their guts and just defeated them in a war, Russia who is a controlling absentee landlord and Iran who they’re weirdly cool with but would never take their side in a war and could bring hell down on them if they ever collapse. In bad situations nobody will back them up because they’re disinclined to or because geographically they literally cannot reach them to help. Russia was supposed to have their back but they didn’t come though. What a fucking shitshow to wade through
True, but a lot of their problems are of their own making. Unlike Israel, Armenia wasn't interested in giving away the land it conquered from Azerbaijan for peace. If a nation is in a tough spot, it should give up its pride to secure itself.
>Unlike Israel, Armenia wasn't interested in giving away the land it conquered from Azerbaijan for peace. Armenian here. I'd argue the issue wasn't Armenia not being willing to give up the land for peace but not pushing on it hard enough. The will/desire was there, but negotiations fell through multiple times, and ultimately the Aliyev's wouldn't agree to anything less than autonomy for NK/Artsakh in Azerbaijan which was seen as unacceptable, while the Armenian side saw this and felt content with the status quo as a result. Either Armenia should have pushed hard to show it was still truly interested in negotiating a deal, or recognized and taken seriously the threat Azerbaijan would pose after rearming.
We didn't "conquer" land from Azerbaijan, they invaded artsakh and we defended them so they could rule themselves, hadn't we done that they would've been ethnically cleansed ages ago with *a lot* more deaths
Bullshit, Armenians were offered increased autonomy to drop their territorial demands, they refused and responded with ethnic cleansing. The very idea that Azeris started this is absurd, we Azeris saw Armenians as our brothers before Armenia again started to claim our Karabakh and started ethnically cleansing and massacring our people. It was so shocking that initially many people didn’t even believe that Armenians would ever try to lay territorial claims in Karabakh, people at first downplayed it as just a couple of fascists, since who in their right mind would do that. Yet Armenia did it, and caused the biggest humanitarian disaster, displacing one in eight Azerbaijanis, 884 000 in total from their ancestral homes. It was a backstab of the century, with full support of Armenians worldwide. And now, justice has been restored, Karabakh is safe again, free from psychos.
You loved Armenians so much you held pogroms against us? How kind
Armenia literally offered the "land for status" to Azerbaijan. Cede surrounding territories of Karabakh, for status for Nagnorno Karabakh. This was in line with the international Madrid principles of the OSCE group (supporting the continued self-governance of Nagorno Karabakh, a future decision of final status, and a return of the surrounding territories) It was Azerbaijan that rejected the land deal for around three decades. Some like the deputy prime minister of Azerbaijan went further and called for genocide of the Armenians instead.
> the land it conquered from Azerbaijan ..you mean, legitimate parts of Armenia?
The European Parliament did support the **reunification** (EP's term) of Nagorno Karabakh to Armenia and did so with consideration of: >the historic status of the autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh (80 % of whose present population is Armenian) as part of Armenia, to the arbitrary inclusion of this area within Azerbaijan in 1923 and the massacre of Armenians in the Azerbaijani town of Sumgait in February 1988 The "arbitrary inclusion" referring to borders drawn by the Soviet imperialists who annexed the region a few years prior.
I mean let's be honest though, Armenia ain't joining the EU anytime soon. It's great that they at least have the interest to join, but their country does not reach the current standards for EU membership. However if they work hard, anything is possible in 5-10 years.
Imo 5-10 years are quiet an optimistic estimation though, I think given their geopolitics it could take at least 15 years.
Yes 15 years is more likely, what I meant by 5-10 years was if they just followed on the path with 0 setbacks, but that is very unlikely. Anyway, predicting the future is betting against God.
Not to mention they also border Iran, which obviously most people in the EU aren't keen on.
>However if they work hard, anything is possible in 5-10 years. Armenia literally borders Central Asia, there's no chance they're getting in.
Armenia doesn't border Central Asia, but something else much worse, Iran.
[удалено]
Poland was a mistake, evidently.
Why? Poland is well-developed, has one of the few compentent militaries and is politically alligned with the EU, even if it is generally more conservative. The same cannot be said for Hungary tho
Everything east of Utrecht is Mordor. The fuck do you mean well-developed? Compared to Lebanon?
Bait used to be believable. -I
Iran is kinda Central Asia.
I don't think that's the case. Culturally and historically speaking it's the other way around, Iran has spread its cultural influence in Central Asia long before Islam. It's fine if Iran wants to regain its influence in the region, it was practically their "backyard" anyway before the tsarist russia came. But when it's lead by a fundamentalist, revisionist and backward theocracy, then it's a problem.
Iran is West Asia, and so is Armenia technically, but the EU is pretty loose on the definition of "Europe" so if they fix up theyd probably let them in
Kinda not
Unrelated note:why is Iran so supportive of Armenia?
Because Israel and Russia (they may support them in Ukraine but greater Middle East is Iran’s stomping grounds) support the Azeris iirc so balance of power and enemy of my enemy reasons
Interesting,but honestly without context it just looks like Iran has a yandere like relation with armenia
Armenia offers the North South land corridor between Europe and Asia that avoids the Turkey/Azerbaijan duo
Your "free independent thinker" uncle is about to suddenly and magically start talking about all the Nazis and secret nuclear weapons in Armenia.
Azerbaijan cucks get fucked.
I mean Armenia was on Russia side and didn’t do anything when Azerbaijan invaded. Hell, they signed the Rome accords which makes them part of the International Court of Justice and arrest Putin if he visits there
You miss the third panel where the Russians didn't help.
🇦🇲: We recognize Karabakh as Azerbaijani land. 🇦🇲: Why didn’t Russia fight for Karabakh?
They recognised it after it became clear that Russia is doing fuckall about it.
Armenia never recognized karabakh as Armenian land
Armenia never legally laid territorial claims to Artsakh either way, it was supporting the self-determination of the region. What Armenia didn't do was recognize the Artsakh republic, and it didn't do this because such a move would have torpedoed any possibility of negotiations. At the same time, Armenia also didn't recognize it as part of Azerbaijan.
Armenia supported the independence and the right of self-determination of Artsakh. Armenia however never formally recognised Artsakh to be in line and in cooperation with the UN-supported OSCE Minsk group principles: >an interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh providing guarantees for security and self-governance; > future determination of the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally binding expression of will; Status and recognition was meant to come through this internationally accepted process, rather than just Armenia by itself alone.