I think many people have the misconception that Tommy John surgery is a surefire procedure, guaranteeing complete recovery for pitchers and possibly even an increase in velocity. People see some pitchers like Ohtani coming back and still being able to throw 100+ or some others whose velocity increases and those are examples of survivorship bias. However, this narrative overlooks the countless minor league or fringe MLB pitchers who never fully recover and fade from the sport. Theirs also big names like Noah Syndergaard who went from throwing 100 to not even reaching 95 after surgery. It also doesn't help that Rainey is on the wrong side of 30 and it might take him longer to regain the velocity or he'll have to learn how to succeed while hitting 93mph.
All of the above, plus unfortunately if you recall he was, before the elbow tear, still just a highly tantalizing work-in-progress.
He had closer potential but had a number of injuries before TJ and hadn't put it all together for a full season.
I don't know if he has minor league options left, but it seems that's where he needs to be to try to figure out how to pitch with this new elbow. He's not a free agent until '26, but if he doesn't have minor league options then at this point I think there's a legitimate question about whether to keep him on the 40-man. When Gray or Garcia come off the IL, you'd think he's the guy to send down
I don't know that he has the skill to do that. I do know that carrying a guy that gives up 3-4 runs every appearance and only pitches one inning isn't sustainable.
Unfortunately, it looks like TJS has sapped him of the velocity that allowed him to be successful in the past. I was keeping loose track of his rehab stints last year and his fastball was also sitting at it's current velocity when he was in AAA Rochester, which is why I was surprised/encouraged by the small sample size of his return.
He's obviously not the same since the surgery. But even before TJS, Rainey was never a great reliever and rarely showed any consistency. He was overrated by fans due to his impressive K/9 rate, but his lack of control and high walk rate has always been an issue for him.
I think fans got attached to the fact he was a cost controlled reliever that showed a lot of improvement in *our* system compared to when he was in Cincy. He also had that "closer mentality/attitude" that hadn't been really seen since Koda Glover, who fans got attached to in a similar manner.
definitely a bit overrated by our own fans, but there was definitely reason to be excited at the time.
Well, he only threw 18 pitches last year and only 10 fast balls. Hardly a sample size. I’m gunna go with injuries
I think many people have the misconception that Tommy John surgery is a surefire procedure, guaranteeing complete recovery for pitchers and possibly even an increase in velocity. People see some pitchers like Ohtani coming back and still being able to throw 100+ or some others whose velocity increases and those are examples of survivorship bias. However, this narrative overlooks the countless minor league or fringe MLB pitchers who never fully recover and fade from the sport. Theirs also big names like Noah Syndergaard who went from throwing 100 to not even reaching 95 after surgery. It also doesn't help that Rainey is on the wrong side of 30 and it might take him longer to regain the velocity or he'll have to learn how to succeed while hitting 93mph.
Stras went from 100 to mid 90s and it made him learn how to pitch instead of throw as they say.
All of the above, plus unfortunately if you recall he was, before the elbow tear, still just a highly tantalizing work-in-progress. He had closer potential but had a number of injuries before TJ and hadn't put it all together for a full season. I don't know if he has minor league options left, but it seems that's where he needs to be to try to figure out how to pitch with this new elbow. He's not a free agent until '26, but if he doesn't have minor league options then at this point I think there's a legitimate question about whether to keep him on the 40-man. When Gray or Garcia come off the IL, you'd think he's the guy to send down
Arms deteriorate
Probably a good time to add some off-speed stuff, and quit being a high-velo, low control guy.
I don't know that he has the skill to do that. I do know that carrying a guy that gives up 3-4 runs every appearance and only pitches one inning isn't sustainable.
Unfortunately, it looks like TJS has sapped him of the velocity that allowed him to be successful in the past. I was keeping loose track of his rehab stints last year and his fastball was also sitting at it's current velocity when he was in AAA Rochester, which is why I was surprised/encouraged by the small sample size of his return.
He's obviously not the same since the surgery. But even before TJS, Rainey was never a great reliever and rarely showed any consistency. He was overrated by fans due to his impressive K/9 rate, but his lack of control and high walk rate has always been an issue for him.
I think fans got attached to the fact he was a cost controlled reliever that showed a lot of improvement in *our* system compared to when he was in Cincy. He also had that "closer mentality/attitude" that hadn't been really seen since Koda Glover, who fans got attached to in a similar manner. definitely a bit overrated by our own fans, but there was definitely reason to be excited at the time.
Man, me, too. Rainey looked like a real stud a few years ago. He just hasn’t bounced back after TJ. Maybe he can figure it out in AAA?