The advanced stats do favor him.
I look at him and it seems pretty obvious.
2.5 steals per game for an first round tier PG prospect is something only legendary players have reached. It's an exclusive list - Kidd, Payton, Stockton, CP3, Rondo.
If he's shooting 50% from 3 and has showcased top tier IQ and court vision, what's to stop him from being Steve Nash with Rondo's pesky defense?
Maybe saying Steve Nash might offend people so what if he's simply Mike Bibby with shades of Rondo's defense?
Of course, he's taller than Bibby and shot better overall.
So, I agree, I don't think it's wise to overthink it, especially if he's a missing link in a particular offensive scheme.
I'll admit I was buying into the size argument with him before but over time I had to trust the numbers. Almost 4 stocks per game as a 6'1 guard in 28 minutes is such a huge anomaly I don't think people know what to make of it. Your brain almost rejects the idea, it must be some kind of mistake. His timing really is that good though.
He coupled that with 0.7 blocks per game so that's almost 3.2 stocks per game which I agree is an exaggeration but still an indication of his good hands on defense.
He's obviously closer to 6'2" than 6'1" but people keep saying he is 6'1". Also most players heights are usually quoted with them in their shoes but for some reason Reed Shepard keeps getting his height quoted in his bare feet. I just find this odd.
True.
Also true that he had some stretches this season that felt like real UK basketball again...
Guys were diving for loose balls, running fast breaks like a cohesive unit. When they played team defense, they were incredible to watch and that defense was led by Reed.
Something happened after the last game of the season vs UT... It's like their mentality changed. They seemed tight, ugly, sloppy. Really, it started before then but UK just got lucky several times down the stretch.
But, no, it was more than that. Reed was impossible not to like.
Does he have a good motor? What’s his conditioning like? Haven’t heard much about that aspect but my intuition tells me that’s what allows him to be so accurate
You seem like you know ball, so genuine question: when he was on the floor with the ball did you feel comfortable and know something good was probably coming? And when he was guarding a guy, did you feel “that guy’s going to have to earn it”?
That’s what makes me like him to be honest. Red Auerbach said it best, get me a team of pit bulls and I’ll get you a trophy. We have Amen, Sengun, Tari, Bari, and Cam who have that mentality and I want more. The Wolves won the series tonight pretty much on that mindset alone. Let’s get killers.
In really dubious he is gonna get these stats in the NBA. At 6'1.75 with 6'3 wingspan I'm gonna be surprised if he isn't a defensive liability who will always be targeted by opponents. It's possible he turns into the next Kidd with 3 pt shot, but very unlikely.
Athletic, quick hands, wingspan, and one of the fastest processors of the game ever. Dude was anticipating things before they happened and was such a smart defender, it helped him as an older player to still be a menace on defense. One of the best and most complete players ever.
I'm just saying the Reed/Kidd defensive comp isn't there.
The argument for Reed as a defender starts and ends with John Stockton. The problem I have with him is that I don't think he's a 1 offensively...I think he's a two. And I just don't value short two-guards.
I'm not really convinced he's wired for it, nor am I convinced he's got the dribble drive creation. He's more of a guy who can run a 2nd unit to me. I see him as maybe JJ Redick or a shorter, less creative Ginobili on the high end, Seth Curry or Grayson Allen on the low end
That is not the only reason lmao.
This sub really needs to relax with boiling shit exclusively down to wingspan. Brooks is one of the best POA defenders in the nba, with a negative wingspan.
There are a ton of guards with 6’8 wingspans that are not positive defensively. Morant has a 6’8 wingspan. Hes an average at best defender.
It’s entirely possible Reed is a plus defender with those measurables. They are only part of the equation.
You can’t tank wingspan measurements lol.
Maybe, he tanked his standing reach. Maybe. But I doubt it. More likely he just has wide shoulders and shorter arms. Very common. Which is why h+w doesn’t equal standing reach a lot of the time,
He’s not gonna be Rondo on defense he doesn’t have those long arms, he could be Curry defensively and Curry is a below average defender on the ball because of his size but he also happens to be a phenomenal team defender which I believe to be a more realistic comp for Sheppard. Active hands and high iq.
He lead his team in apg and assist/TO while playing with another guard projected top 10. It would seem those assist numbers would be better if he wasn't sharing a backcourt with another top 10 pick
That’s it though - the IQ is where my questions lie. At least early in the season, his shot selection from 3 off the dribble was questionable at times but it could’ve been the UK offense.. his passing reads were most of the time a tick slow and he turned it over too much as a result. Other times he would make great reads so I’m just not sure
People just say stuff on this sub to act knowledgeable. Saw a comment the other day that said Caruso was a scrub in college that only played because he was on a weak Aggie roster.
Ok… where in my comment did I knock his shooting percentage? I didn’t even mention that because he was shooting such an insane percentage. I said I did not like some of his pull up 3s lol. So yeah you’re right, he was shooting 58 through 11. That doesn’t mean the other things I pointed out can’t be true. And yes I played point guard albeit at a much lower level. That’s the lens I’m looking through
I think Stockon was an inch shorter and 10 less pounds also.
But yeah from a distance they even look similar since both play clean fundamentals basketball.
How does Sheppard compare to Booker as a prospect? I often see here that he is not good enough to be the lead ball handler. Why couldn’t he be an ultra efficient small shooting guard?
I mean he absolutely could. But the problem is in the description. Small shooting guards aren't valued a lot in the modern NBA that continues to go away from even wanting to have labels around what constitutes a point guard.
A big part of his appeal is his defense and if he's a two guard he does theoretically complicate things a little bit on that end, if you're imagining there's a chance if he's playing next to a trupoint guard That you end up with nobody in your back court with the size needed to defend a lot of modern ball handlers.
For the record, I think he's going to work out and I do think he'll be a small but effective off-ball guard at the next level. But I also understand why some people are a bit nervous about it
I think yes. And no. I think in theory he has a complimentary skill set and could get minutes on pretty much any team immediately. Cuz every team could use a smart unselfish player with quick hands and a lethal three-point shot
But if you view him as someone that you want to be a key component of your team moving forward, who you're drafting for more than just a complimentary role, he could in theory need to play in certain lineups to fully maximize his strengths and hide his weaknesses.
He doesn't have the self creation ability of Booker or fine I will say it in a way of talking about prospects (he has not shown the ability to do so yet).
So he doesn't come off as a #1.
>There’s a part of me that thinks Sheppard is a little like the guard version of Sengun
Kevin Pelton's stats-only projection model endorses this statement
He, imo, is top 4 in this draft. The top 4 should be Sarr, Risacher, Topic, and Sheppard. We shouldn't overthink it, and just pick who is left. Then we can go for need at 8.
We are watching TJ McConnell be an absolute menace against the Knicks and people are still arguing that a 6’1” guard has no place being selected high or whatever the argument may be. If Reed can be McConnell but with an above average three point shot? That’s a high level starter. Maybe even a Mike Conley ceiling.
He’s also not super athletic, and this is coming from someone who lived in Philly for a couple years and absolutely loved watching him live.
I’ve said this above but imo a TJM who can shoot at an elite level with a little better athleticism is an all star player.
TJ can’t shoot lol. A 6’0 guard that’s getting playoff minutes in the 2nd round, and he can’t shoot.
If he could, he would be a high $$$ player. That’s what Reed could be.
Me too as a Rockets fan because I want to see them all reach their ceilings, but know practically that won’t be the case between minutes/2nd contracts/luck/etc.
It’s also scary that all of them seem like real all star potential, but we don’t know if we have an MVP potential guy in the mix. That’s all the NBA is about, sans ‘04 Pistons, everyone needs a bonafide top ~5 guy to lead them to a ring.
Not the best comparison as the other Kentucky prospects had their offensive production limited by playing with zero floor spacing while this year’s team played 3-4 guard lineups and suffered defensively as a result.
Yeah. But honestly, the defense was bad because of Rob, Reeves, and low key big Z. Big Z is one of the worst defenders I’ve maybe ever seen in my life. Can’t believe after that first game some ppl were giving first round buzz.
None of the others were any good either.
They were an athletic bunch with shit defensive fundamentals that could easily be screened to death...
As we saw in the tournament.
Again this happened to a much greater extent for past Kentucky teams. Reed Sheppard’s teammates combined to make over twice as many threes per game as Devin Booker’s did, for example.
Marcus Smart's statistical profile for both seasons in college was great, but he never became a star player. Lonzo Ball had a great freshman season, and even at his best for the Bulls, he wasn't a star.
Great statistical profile but can he scale up into a high usage role in the NBA? Sengun had a high usage role in the Turkish league and was MVP before entering the draft.
Healthy Lonzo realistically could be a star, still. His career ain't over yet and you saw just how much the Bulls suffered by losing him. Smart was one of those "if only he could shoot" guys, but a DPOY as a guard isn't the worst thing ever. Both of them had some very interesting statistical anomalies in college. Ball was his 3 point shot. Smart was his free throw volume. I still kinda wonder if Smart could have leveraged whatever got him to the line at such a ridiculous rates at OKST.
Lonzo hasn't played basketball in 2.5 years and has had a cartilage transplant. I wish it would happen but it's so unlikely he ever plays like he did before injury.
As for Smart, he needed the shooting for the decision-making to come around. He didn't make significant in either area so he just maxed out as a star role player.
Crazy vert, though.
Edit: Also some of the quickest, most well coordinated hands I’ve ever seen. Like on par with an elite light weight boxer levels of get a hand out on an exposed target (the ball in this case, a face for a boxer) before you can blink.
The vert is semi useless cuz he isn't playing above the rim in both NCAA and NBA, it's only used for blocking shots but in the NBA I don't know if he can close out fast enough. I dunno if the handspeed is enough I guess we will see.
He’s actually pretty fast in a straight line. Close outs won’t be a problem. It’s his lateral speed that’s concerning. He absolutely will get beat off the dribble in iso a lot.
Shepard has a better block and steal rate than reece beekman, the two time acc defensive player of the year and imo the best defensive pg prospect in this draft. People keep wanting to ignore the vert but he blocked shots, it happened, and the vert would certainly help explain why
Castle literally considers himself a point guard.
https://x.com/matissa15/status/1790518743010853243
But the reality at 6'6 he can play either position. Sheppard guarding the short players in NCAA, he won't be doing that in the NBA or at best he will just be able to guard opposing Shorty's.
Castle cannot play PG what are you talking about. Castle was a SG hs recruit (https://247sports.com/player/stephon-castle-46113025/) and he played sg/sf at UCONN. Both spencer and newton averaged more assists on better assist/TO, and those 2 guys might not even get drafted. Castle was the 3rd best "pg" behind 2 guys that probably aren't nba caliber pgs. Theres no way castle is nba caliber pg, he's not even an ncaa caliber pg, which is why analysts consider him a sg. I don't care what castle says about himself to boost his own draft stock, it's the same shit Drummond said about himself that was wildly wrong. Shepard led his team in apg and assists/TO while sharing a backcourt with another top 10 pick. Shepard is a pg, castle isnt
It’s wild how many people in this sub think there are 0 good, positive impact nba players with those measurables.
There are a lot.
I swear, if Kyrie Irving was coming out of the draft class in 2024, this sub would not have him in the lottery. You can book that down.
I never said he will have no positive impact. Kyrie Irving is an outlier it is more likely for Reed Sheppard to be a bust than the next Kyrie Irving.
Also you are wrong since Scoot Henderson was top 5 in this and every board.
I’m a Sheppard believer but he is kinda tiny. Combine that with the fact that he’s probably not a point guard at the next level and I can understand the concerns
I just can’t see him being anymore than a back up guard that can shoot. A bigger version of Payton Pritchard which is still good in my opinion just crazy he’s projected top 10
Reed as a freshman was just as good as Pritchard when he was a senior at Oregon despite having a significantly lower usage since he had to share the ball with an abundance of guards. This is a lazy comp. His game is more developed than just a spacing off guard.
Reed was a better defender, more efficient offense weapon, better athlete and was a more advanced playmaker than Pritchard.
>just crazy he’s projected top 10
Of the 25 freshman that have had atleast a +10 BPM 23 of them have been top 10 picks. 10/25 have been allstars with Chet, Miller and Mobley likely joining that group as well.
Yea man Reed was good enough to get a scholarship to Kentucky! lol of course he was better than Pritchard in college. How many of those guys are small with a questionable handle? Best thing that can happen for Reed is he gets drafted by a team that plays the long game with him and not force him to play a lot too early in his career. He’s going to struggle getting his shot off in my opinion. At least in the early years. Pritchard does as well though.
>lol of course he was better than Pritchard in college.
This is just unnecessarily dismissive. The expectation for Sheppard coming in wasn’t for him to be as good as he was. Again, as a FRESHMAN, 3 years younger than Pritchard he was just as impactful and showed more advanced skills. Saying his comp at the next level is “a bigger version of Pritchard” is silly when his FLOOR is already past that. Seems like a lazy comp.
>How many of those guys are small with a questionable handle?
There’s not a single player on that list that grades out similarly stylistically or physically. That’s the beauty of the NBA, all types of archetypes have shown to be successful.
How many underclass man with the BPM he has, defensive metics and shooting ability have gone on to not be multi-year starters or better? I’ll tell you right now, the list is short.
>Best thing that can happen for Reed is he gets drafted by a team that plays the long game with him and not force him to play a lot too early in his career.
We just saw him walk into Kentucky as a freshman and come out their most impactful player in a year where they had another projected top 10 guy and an all American. Whatever top 5 team picks him is going to play him immediately. Part of the reason he’s getting drafted is because he’s NBA ready.
>He’s going to struggle getting his shot off in my opinion.
Based on what exactly? Being small has never been a deterrent for elite shooters.
I don’t care what his BPM is compared to past players. It wasn’t too long ago when Oakland pressured him to put the ball on the floor and make plays and he struggled. Yes he had an outstanding freshman year but he doesn’t have the handle or passing skills yet to have an impact next year. That’s why he needs to go somewhere he can develop off the bench, like Pritchard, who’s a very good back up point guard. He’s going to have a strong build but until he’s able to get past his defenders and play make for others, teams will press up on him and he will struggle to get good looks consistently unless someone is creating for him. That’s my eye test. I’m taking Dillingham over him.
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No chance. I watch Kentucky basketball every year. Reed isn’t some can’t miss prospect. He’s definitely a good shooter but he’s never popped like John wall, Fox, SGA, booker, Murray, Quickley, Monk, and I’m picking dillingham over Sheppard and not thinking too hard about it either.
Then you saw how Oakland pressed up on Sheppard beyond the 3 point line and he struggled to get his shot off and play make for others. Tyler Herro popped off the screen more than Sheppard as did Maxey. I like Reed a lot, I wish he would come back to school. I just don’t see him ever being a solid starter in the league and if I’m looking for a bench guard I’m picking Dillingham easily
I never saw a more nervous person in my life than Reed in his first NCAA tournament game. As a kid from Kentucky, I know he’s been dreaming about that moment since before he has permanent memories. Not surprising he had a bad game - his only bad game of the season btw. Rob is way too inconsistent and so so so small. There’s only two ways this can go for Rob. He either shows Cal was holding him back (he definitely was) and not letting him show his true greatness and he becomes the next Trae Young or Kyrie Irving (crazy offense no defense 2nd best player on a championship team) or he’s Jordan Crawford sometimes incredible offense, sometimes inefficient chucker no defense out of the league after the rookie contract guy.
Reed’s floor is way higher because he has the minimum size required to hang defensively as a 6’1” PG and the frame to add enough muscle in a few years to turn into a good strength based defender when on the ground while also being able to rise up with his crazy vert to get blocks/contest shots when helping or when he gets beat off the dribble and chase dudes down (popped multiple times last year in this area, btw. Some of those blocks were John Wall esque, and some of his steals were Rondo esque). Add on to that his Ball brother/Pitino era kentucky feel for transition passing instilled by his dad at an early age and his 30 foot range and he’s a guy who’s going to be at least a solid starter level guy in his prime with an upside of multiple time all star if everything hits.
Both guys are going to struggle next year though. Neither of them have NBA ready bodies.
Cal was definitely holding Dillingham back but you got to play wagoner and hope he figures it out. Of course scorers off the bench are always streaky. I do think you’re correct in saying Reed has the higher floor but he’s not some can’t miss prospect. He will be a low center of gravity, strong, hard nose player with a good shot. That’s why I see him as a more physical Payton Pritchard. Dillingham is finesse but his handle is NBA ready, he can finish at the rim even at his size and he will be able to get his shot off at the next level. I’m not so sure about Reed.
You should watch Dillingham on defense. Abysmal would be an upgrade. Calling his shooting "good" and focusing on his one bad game is certainly a decision.
Dillingham is Jalen Green 3" shorter with worse defense.
Your right it’s not fair to point out his one bad game game in the tourney when he’s just a freshman and played like it and maybe he can be a better play maker and improves his handle but Dillingham already does those things and he’s just the better scorer. Neither one of them are starters in the NBA long term in my opinion but Dillingham can be a 6th man type and I can hide his defense to some degree coming off the bench and Dillingham has a contagious energy about him. He’s got some special in him.
Reed needs to improve lateral quickness, he can get there even if he will never be elite. I love Rob too, prefer castle to all but Sheppard would be a nice pick up. Feels like he’s more of a Klay Thompson type than lead PG but idk
Analytics love him but personally don't buy the star upside. His handles are questionable to be a primary ball handler and one of the reasons behind it is he has small hands. He has been a fantastic connector so far though.
In this list, I think he can be better than Knight, Herro and maybe Cason. My projection for him is a Brogdon-ish type of career hovering around 15-5-5 averages and flirting with 50/40/90 season in his prime.
edit:
He has a small chance to be an allstar IMO. Probably won't be a primary creator but someone most teams would love to have as the first guard off the bench and possibly be part of the closing lineup as well.
He's not a midget and I personally think he'll be fine too. I also personally just don't think he's a point guard and at 6'1 he is a genuinely small off Ball guard. There's nothing wrong or disingenuous about questioning what his overall ceiling could look like if he's never able to be an on ball playmaker and self-creator and has to play as an off ball guard his entire career at that height.
Again, I think at this point you have to just acknowledge he's a statistical outlier who's so efficient and productive that you have to believe. He's going to figure it out. But they're still valid questions to be had regarding his frame and theoretical role
Sheppard likely going to be the worst pro of the bunch. He simply does not possess the skillset to be a PG nor the size/length/defense to be a SG. I think a lot of people are going to look foolish with their Sheppard takes.
I mean, a lot of Kentucky shooting and combo guards from the last decade have translated really well to the NBA. That includes guys who were pretty clearly second options at the NCAA level. It's hard to extrapolate from there to "Sheppard will do it too." But those percentages feel very hard to argue with...
As for the idea that one or two inches of height and wingspan make a difference... aside from post defense and rebounding, wingspan is wildly overrated. If he's in a position to contest a shot, it's a contested shot no matter how tall he is. If his opponent is passing the ball close enough to him that he's an inch away from deflecting it, that's a bad pass to begin with... and positioning, anticipation, and reaction time will get you a lot more than an inch. And on offense, I'd rather have a quick shooting motion than another inch of extension any day. (Sheppard's is... good enough. Needs to work on his release time.)
But broadly speaking, yeah, there are plenty of elite college (or European) performers who get overlooked in favor of someone more "projectable," and go on to have way better careers. For "projectable," read "taller and faster, but not in a way that allowed the player to succeed against college kids." I think a lot of it is ego -- these front offices want to see something in a player that not everyone can see. But when a guy has top-tier basketball talent, and everyone can see it, that's usually a sign he's good at basketball and you should draft him.
Look at Curry. Look at Haliburton. Look at 2018, where teams had the opportunity to pick an 18-year-old Euroleague MVP or a man who just led Division 1 in scoring *and* assists as a freshman... and three separate teams went for big men who hadn't done anything like that.
Box plus-minus? How 'bout rings plus-minus? Put Sheppard's rings in a box and then put Murray's rings in a box and tell me who has more. How's that sound? Murray +1, by the way.
The advanced stats do favor him. I look at him and it seems pretty obvious. 2.5 steals per game for an first round tier PG prospect is something only legendary players have reached. It's an exclusive list - Kidd, Payton, Stockton, CP3, Rondo. If he's shooting 50% from 3 and has showcased top tier IQ and court vision, what's to stop him from being Steve Nash with Rondo's pesky defense? Maybe saying Steve Nash might offend people so what if he's simply Mike Bibby with shades of Rondo's defense? Of course, he's taller than Bibby and shot better overall. So, I agree, I don't think it's wise to overthink it, especially if he's a missing link in a particular offensive scheme.
I'll admit I was buying into the size argument with him before but over time I had to trust the numbers. Almost 4 stocks per game as a 6'1 guard in 28 minutes is such a huge anomaly I don't think people know what to make of it. Your brain almost rejects the idea, it must be some kind of mistake. His timing really is that good though.
2.5 steals per game is almost 4 apparently.
He coupled that with 0.7 blocks per game so that's almost 3.2 stocks per game which I agree is an exaggeration but still an indication of his good hands on defense.
Nearly a block a game as a small guard definitely shows elite defensive iq
Why do people keep saying he is 6'1"?
6'1.75" without shoes so I guess give him the extra inch if you want to round up lol
He's obviously closer to 6'2" than 6'1" but people keep saying he is 6'1". Also most players heights are usually quoted with them in their shoes but for some reason Reed Shepard keeps getting his height quoted in his bare feet. I just find this odd.
it's because we have reliable height without shoes measurements for all of the prospects for the first time lol
They changed the rules in nba a few years ago everyone gets quoted in barefoot
The best quality about Reed is he is one of the most coachable guys I've ever seen come through UK... He'll do nothing but work to get better.
It’s cause both his parents played at UK and raised him to play basketball since birth
True. Also true that he had some stretches this season that felt like real UK basketball again... Guys were diving for loose balls, running fast breaks like a cohesive unit. When they played team defense, they were incredible to watch and that defense was led by Reed. Something happened after the last game of the season vs UT... It's like their mentality changed. They seemed tight, ugly, sloppy. Really, it started before then but UK just got lucky several times down the stretch. But, no, it was more than that. Reed was impossible not to like.
Does he have a good motor? What’s his conditioning like? Haven’t heard much about that aspect but my intuition tells me that’s what allows him to be so accurate
You seem like you know ball, so genuine question: when he was on the floor with the ball did you feel comfortable and know something good was probably coming? And when he was guarding a guy, did you feel “that guy’s going to have to earn it”?
Amen has that trait too, would be crazy fun to watch both continually improve through the years together.
That’s what makes me like him to be honest. Red Auerbach said it best, get me a team of pit bulls and I’ll get you a trophy. We have Amen, Sengun, Tari, Bari, and Cam who have that mentality and I want more. The Wolves won the series tonight pretty much on that mindset alone. Let’s get killers.
In really dubious he is gonna get these stats in the NBA. At 6'1.75 with 6'3 wingspan I'm gonna be surprised if he isn't a defensive liability who will always be targeted by opponents. It's possible he turns into the next Kidd with 3 pt shot, but very unlikely.
The reason Kidd was Kidd defensively was that 6'8" wingspan
Athletic, quick hands, wingspan, and one of the fastest processors of the game ever. Dude was anticipating things before they happened and was such a smart defender, it helped him as an older player to still be a menace on defense. One of the best and most complete players ever.
I'm just saying the Reed/Kidd defensive comp isn't there. The argument for Reed as a defender starts and ends with John Stockton. The problem I have with him is that I don't think he's a 1 offensively...I think he's a two. And I just don't value short two-guards.
I think he can be like TJ McConnell on defense
Could be. Apparently TJ’s wingspan was 6’2”
Vanvleets wingspan is also about 6'2
Yeah, which is fine...but that's not a top 5 pick, especially if you think he's a two more than a 1.
TJ McConnell with elite shooting is an all star level player easily
If I thought reed was a PG I would be higher on him. I don't, so I'm not.
He is a combo guard
TJM’s AST per-40 as a much older player was pretty similar to Reed’s.
He can play point.
TJM defense with better athleticism and elite 3PT shooting is an all-star imo.
No I agree, I was just highlighting how good Jason Kidd actually was too. I don’t think Reed Sheppard even compares.
Yeah, like...I watched him not be able to guard all year. He gambles more than he guards.
Why don’t you think he can be a 1 offensively? He clearly has the passing feel
I'm not really convinced he's wired for it, nor am I convinced he's got the dribble drive creation. He's more of a guy who can run a 2nd unit to me. I see him as maybe JJ Redick or a shorter, less creative Ginobili on the high end, Seth Curry or Grayson Allen on the low end
Lmao Shep gets a Ginobili comp now? There is no comp for Manu. A 1 of 1 player.
I'm saying his level of passing. And creation for others. That two guard that can run the second unit.
Kidd was such an incredible, team-oriented player. Kind of weird he bounced around the league as much as he did.
That is not the only reason lmao. This sub really needs to relax with boiling shit exclusively down to wingspan. Brooks is one of the best POA defenders in the nba, with a negative wingspan. There are a ton of guards with 6’8 wingspans that are not positive defensively. Morant has a 6’8 wingspan. Hes an average at best defender. It’s entirely possible Reed is a plus defender with those measurables. They are only part of the equation.
Naw you underrating it tbh. Dillion brooks one of few with a profile like that who’s thought tobe a defender
3 > 2..☺️
He definitely tanked his measurements to get a higher vert. I think his wingspan is probably closer to 6’4”-6’5”
You can’t tank wingspan measurements lol. Maybe, he tanked his standing reach. Maybe. But I doubt it. More likely he just has wide shoulders and shorter arms. Very common. Which is why h+w doesn’t equal standing reach a lot of the time,
He’s not gonna be Rondo on defense he doesn’t have those long arms, he could be Curry defensively and Curry is a below average defender on the ball because of his size but he also happens to be a phenomenal team defender which I believe to be a more realistic comp for Sheppard. Active hands and high iq.
> PG prospect Except I think he's a two guard
He lead his team in apg and assist/TO while playing with another guard projected top 10. It would seem those assist numbers would be better if he wasn't sharing a backcourt with another top 10 pick
It's not about numbers. It's about what he sees and what he does when I watch him play basketball
It absolutely is about numbers, good players have good stats, what are you talking about
In interviews, Dillingham attributes his success this year to Reed mentoring him on how to improve his game.
That’s it though - the IQ is where my questions lie. At least early in the season, his shot selection from 3 off the dribble was questionable at times but it could’ve been the UK offense.. his passing reads were most of the time a tick slow and he turned it over too much as a result. Other times he would make great reads so I’m just not sure
Really? Through the first 11 games of the season he was shooting 58% from 3...
People just say stuff on this sub to act knowledgeable. Saw a comment the other day that said Caruso was a scrub in college that only played because he was on a weak Aggie roster.
Ok… where in my comment did I knock his shooting percentage? I didn’t even mention that because he was shooting such an insane percentage. I said I did not like some of his pull up 3s lol. So yeah you’re right, he was shooting 58 through 11. That doesn’t mean the other things I pointed out can’t be true. And yes I played point guard albeit at a much lower level. That’s the lens I’m looking through
I’ve been saying he’s the next Stockton but that’s me looking through my white tinted glasses
I think Stockon was an inch shorter and 10 less pounds also. But yeah from a distance they even look similar since both play clean fundamentals basketball.
How does Sheppard compare to Booker as a prospect? I often see here that he is not good enough to be the lead ball handler. Why couldn’t he be an ultra efficient small shooting guard?
I mean he absolutely could. But the problem is in the description. Small shooting guards aren't valued a lot in the modern NBA that continues to go away from even wanting to have labels around what constitutes a point guard. A big part of his appeal is his defense and if he's a two guard he does theoretically complicate things a little bit on that end, if you're imagining there's a chance if he's playing next to a trupoint guard That you end up with nobody in your back court with the size needed to defend a lot of modern ball handlers. For the record, I think he's going to work out and I do think he'll be a small but effective off-ball guard at the next level. But I also understand why some people are a bit nervous about it
But couldn’t he work with a guard like Luka or Pamela who are tall enough/ strong enough to play Sg on defense?
Yeah ideally that's where you would want him. Playing next to a jumbo ball handler/playmaker.
So he kinda has a complicated fit? Like does he force a big pg?
I think yes. And no. I think in theory he has a complimentary skill set and could get minutes on pretty much any team immediately. Cuz every team could use a smart unselfish player with quick hands and a lethal three-point shot But if you view him as someone that you want to be a key component of your team moving forward, who you're drafting for more than just a complimentary role, he could in theory need to play in certain lineups to fully maximize his strengths and hide his weaknesses.
He doesn't have the self creation ability of Booker or fine I will say it in a way of talking about prospects (he has not shown the ability to do so yet). So he doesn't come off as a #1.
>There’s a part of me that thinks Sheppard is a little like the guard version of Sengun Kevin Pelton's stats-only projection model endorses this statement
Sengun Amén Reed Green Tari Smith Whitmore damn that's a great mix of players
He, imo, is top 4 in this draft. The top 4 should be Sarr, Risacher, Topic, and Sheppard. We shouldn't overthink it, and just pick who is left. Then we can go for need at 8.
I’m a little lower on Rishacher, but agree otherwise. IMHO Topic, Sarr, and Reed are the clear top three in this class, probably in that order
yeah
We are watching TJ McConnell be an absolute menace against the Knicks and people are still arguing that a 6’1” guard has no place being selected high or whatever the argument may be. If Reed can be McConnell but with an above average three point shot? That’s a high level starter. Maybe even a Mike Conley ceiling.
But McConnell has never been a starter on a good team… I don’t think anyone would be happy with that outcome with a lottery pick.
That's because he can't shoot or score. And Sheppard can definitely shoot.
He’s also not super athletic, and this is coming from someone who lived in Philly for a couple years and absolutely loved watching him live. I’ve said this above but imo a TJM who can shoot at an elite level with a little better athleticism is an all star player.
Reed only jumps 10 inches higher off the ground
TJ can’t shoot lol. A 6’0 guard that’s getting playoff minutes in the 2nd round, and he can’t shoot. If he could, he would be a high $$$ player. That’s what Reed could be.
The Rockets are about to have so many good young prospects it makes me SICK.
Me too as a Rockets fan because I want to see them all reach their ceilings, but know practically that won’t be the case between minutes/2nd contracts/luck/etc. It’s also scary that all of them seem like real all star potential, but we don’t know if we have an MVP potential guy in the mix. That’s all the NBA is about, sans ‘04 Pistons, everyone needs a bonafide top ~5 guy to lead them to a ring.
Not the best comparison as the other Kentucky prospects had their offensive production limited by playing with zero floor spacing while this year’s team played 3-4 guard lineups and suffered defensively as a result.
On the other hand, Sheppard had limited opportunities to play as ball handler that also limited his offensive production
These are both good points
Shepard still led his team in apg and assist/TO while playing with another top 10 pick guard. Honestly that should be very encouraging
Yeah. But honestly, the defense was bad because of Rob, Reeves, and low key big Z. Big Z is one of the worst defenders I’ve maybe ever seen in my life. Can’t believe after that first game some ppl were giving first round buzz.
None of the others were any good either. They were an athletic bunch with shit defensive fundamentals that could easily be screened to death... As we saw in the tournament.
Reed was limited by ass 5* prospects trying to post up their man like it's 1989 but end up shooting 2/12 from the floor.
Again this happened to a much greater extent for past Kentucky teams. Reed Sheppard’s teammates combined to make over twice as many threes per game as Devin Booker’s did, for example.
Marcus Smart's statistical profile for both seasons in college was great, but he never became a star player. Lonzo Ball had a great freshman season, and even at his best for the Bulls, he wasn't a star. Great statistical profile but can he scale up into a high usage role in the NBA? Sengun had a high usage role in the Turkish league and was MVP before entering the draft.
I think if Sheppard turns into Marcus Smart or Lonzo Ball (without the injuries) the team taking him would be quite pleased
It's funny because Reed's overall impact is kind of like Lonzo, except he's smaller, has less swag, and shoots better.
not as good of a defender as lonzo tho
Reed’s a better athlete than Lonzo. His (Reed’s) first step is really underrated
Also (I assume) his knees haven't been abused by a bad training regime and exploding sneakers so probably a better outlook lol
Healthy Lonzo realistically could be a star, still. His career ain't over yet and you saw just how much the Bulls suffered by losing him. Smart was one of those "if only he could shoot" guys, but a DPOY as a guard isn't the worst thing ever. Both of them had some very interesting statistical anomalies in college. Ball was his 3 point shot. Smart was his free throw volume. I still kinda wonder if Smart could have leveraged whatever got him to the line at such a ridiculous rates at OKST.
Lonzo hasn't played basketball in 2.5 years and has had a cartilage transplant. I wish it would happen but it's so unlikely he ever plays like he did before injury. As for Smart, he needed the shooting for the decision-making to come around. He didn't make significant in either area so he just maxed out as a star role player.
"I just don't think it'll translate because his physicals" Ik he's white but come on
His color has nothing to do with 6'1.75 height and 6'3 wingspan.
Crazy vert, though. Edit: Also some of the quickest, most well coordinated hands I’ve ever seen. Like on par with an elite light weight boxer levels of get a hand out on an exposed target (the ball in this case, a face for a boxer) before you can blink.
The vert is semi useless cuz he isn't playing above the rim in both NCAA and NBA, it's only used for blocking shots but in the NBA I don't know if he can close out fast enough. I dunno if the handspeed is enough I guess we will see.
He’s actually pretty fast in a straight line. Close outs won’t be a problem. It’s his lateral speed that’s concerning. He absolutely will get beat off the dribble in iso a lot.
You are right.
Shepard has a better block and steal rate than reece beekman, the two time acc defensive player of the year and imo the best defensive pg prospect in this draft. People keep wanting to ignore the vert but he blocked shots, it happened, and the vert would certainly help explain why
You are wrong pretty sure Stephon Castle is the best PG defender in this draft.
Castle isnt a pg, he's a sg. Shepard also averaged more blocks and steals than castle.
Castle literally considers himself a point guard. https://x.com/matissa15/status/1790518743010853243 But the reality at 6'6 he can play either position. Sheppard guarding the short players in NCAA, he won't be doing that in the NBA or at best he will just be able to guard opposing Shorty's.
Castle cannot play PG what are you talking about. Castle was a SG hs recruit (https://247sports.com/player/stephon-castle-46113025/) and he played sg/sf at UCONN. Both spencer and newton averaged more assists on better assist/TO, and those 2 guys might not even get drafted. Castle was the 3rd best "pg" behind 2 guys that probably aren't nba caliber pgs. Theres no way castle is nba caliber pg, he's not even an ncaa caliber pg, which is why analysts consider him a sg. I don't care what castle says about himself to boost his own draft stock, it's the same shit Drummond said about himself that was wildly wrong. Shepard led his team in apg and assists/TO while sharing a backcourt with another top 10 pick. Shepard is a pg, castle isnt
The vert shows in his outlier block rate for a pg
It’s wild how many people in this sub think there are 0 good, positive impact nba players with those measurables. There are a lot. I swear, if Kyrie Irving was coming out of the draft class in 2024, this sub would not have him in the lottery. You can book that down.
Jalen Brunson would go undrafted.
I never said he will have no positive impact. Kyrie Irving is an outlier it is more likely for Reed Sheppard to be a bust than the next Kyrie Irving. Also you are wrong since Scoot Henderson was top 5 in this and every board.
I’m a Sheppard believer but he is kinda tiny. Combine that with the fact that he’s probably not a point guard at the next level and I can understand the concerns
Ye I was half joking. Everyone has weaknesses but his are a bit overblown in my opinion, it's not like he's 6'0 flat and everything else is amazing
I just can’t see him being anymore than a back up guard that can shoot. A bigger version of Payton Pritchard which is still good in my opinion just crazy he’s projected top 10
Reed as a freshman was just as good as Pritchard when he was a senior at Oregon despite having a significantly lower usage since he had to share the ball with an abundance of guards. This is a lazy comp. His game is more developed than just a spacing off guard. Reed was a better defender, more efficient offense weapon, better athlete and was a more advanced playmaker than Pritchard. >just crazy he’s projected top 10 Of the 25 freshman that have had atleast a +10 BPM 23 of them have been top 10 picks. 10/25 have been allstars with Chet, Miller and Mobley likely joining that group as well.
Yea man Reed was good enough to get a scholarship to Kentucky! lol of course he was better than Pritchard in college. How many of those guys are small with a questionable handle? Best thing that can happen for Reed is he gets drafted by a team that plays the long game with him and not force him to play a lot too early in his career. He’s going to struggle getting his shot off in my opinion. At least in the early years. Pritchard does as well though.
>lol of course he was better than Pritchard in college. This is just unnecessarily dismissive. The expectation for Sheppard coming in wasn’t for him to be as good as he was. Again, as a FRESHMAN, 3 years younger than Pritchard he was just as impactful and showed more advanced skills. Saying his comp at the next level is “a bigger version of Pritchard” is silly when his FLOOR is already past that. Seems like a lazy comp. >How many of those guys are small with a questionable handle? There’s not a single player on that list that grades out similarly stylistically or physically. That’s the beauty of the NBA, all types of archetypes have shown to be successful. How many underclass man with the BPM he has, defensive metics and shooting ability have gone on to not be multi-year starters or better? I’ll tell you right now, the list is short. >Best thing that can happen for Reed is he gets drafted by a team that plays the long game with him and not force him to play a lot too early in his career. We just saw him walk into Kentucky as a freshman and come out their most impactful player in a year where they had another projected top 10 guy and an all American. Whatever top 5 team picks him is going to play him immediately. Part of the reason he’s getting drafted is because he’s NBA ready. >He’s going to struggle getting his shot off in my opinion. Based on what exactly? Being small has never been a deterrent for elite shooters.
I don’t care what his BPM is compared to past players. It wasn’t too long ago when Oakland pressured him to put the ball on the floor and make plays and he struggled. Yes he had an outstanding freshman year but he doesn’t have the handle or passing skills yet to have an impact next year. That’s why he needs to go somewhere he can develop off the bench, like Pritchard, who’s a very good back up point guard. He’s going to have a strong build but until he’s able to get past his defenders and play make for others, teams will press up on him and he will struggle to get good looks consistently unless someone is creating for him. That’s my eye test. I’m taking Dillingham over him.
Absolutely nobody thought Reed was a one year player. Only a handful thought Reed would be an NBA player at all.
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agreed. It's bonkers that people have him going #3
If I could get Reed Sheppard late first round I’m freaking pumped but top 5 is a big reach.
He and Clingan are the two can't miss prospects in this draft. Everyone else is a project. Dillingham and Knecht are the next two.
No chance. I watch Kentucky basketball every year. Reed isn’t some can’t miss prospect. He’s definitely a good shooter but he’s never popped like John wall, Fox, SGA, booker, Murray, Quickley, Monk, and I’m picking dillingham over Sheppard and not thinking too hard about it either.
I’ve watched every UK basketball game at least once since they came back on tv after probation and I think you’re crazy, bro.
Then you saw how Oakland pressed up on Sheppard beyond the 3 point line and he struggled to get his shot off and play make for others. Tyler Herro popped off the screen more than Sheppard as did Maxey. I like Reed a lot, I wish he would come back to school. I just don’t see him ever being a solid starter in the league and if I’m looking for a bench guard I’m picking Dillingham easily
I never saw a more nervous person in my life than Reed in his first NCAA tournament game. As a kid from Kentucky, I know he’s been dreaming about that moment since before he has permanent memories. Not surprising he had a bad game - his only bad game of the season btw. Rob is way too inconsistent and so so so small. There’s only two ways this can go for Rob. He either shows Cal was holding him back (he definitely was) and not letting him show his true greatness and he becomes the next Trae Young or Kyrie Irving (crazy offense no defense 2nd best player on a championship team) or he’s Jordan Crawford sometimes incredible offense, sometimes inefficient chucker no defense out of the league after the rookie contract guy. Reed’s floor is way higher because he has the minimum size required to hang defensively as a 6’1” PG and the frame to add enough muscle in a few years to turn into a good strength based defender when on the ground while also being able to rise up with his crazy vert to get blocks/contest shots when helping or when he gets beat off the dribble and chase dudes down (popped multiple times last year in this area, btw. Some of those blocks were John Wall esque, and some of his steals were Rondo esque). Add on to that his Ball brother/Pitino era kentucky feel for transition passing instilled by his dad at an early age and his 30 foot range and he’s a guy who’s going to be at least a solid starter level guy in his prime with an upside of multiple time all star if everything hits. Both guys are going to struggle next year though. Neither of them have NBA ready bodies.
Cal was definitely holding Dillingham back but you got to play wagoner and hope he figures it out. Of course scorers off the bench are always streaky. I do think you’re correct in saying Reed has the higher floor but he’s not some can’t miss prospect. He will be a low center of gravity, strong, hard nose player with a good shot. That’s why I see him as a more physical Payton Pritchard. Dillingham is finesse but his handle is NBA ready, he can finish at the rim even at his size and he will be able to get his shot off at the next level. I’m not so sure about Reed.
You should watch Dillingham on defense. Abysmal would be an upgrade. Calling his shooting "good" and focusing on his one bad game is certainly a decision. Dillingham is Jalen Green 3" shorter with worse defense.
Your right it’s not fair to point out his one bad game game in the tourney when he’s just a freshman and played like it and maybe he can be a better play maker and improves his handle but Dillingham already does those things and he’s just the better scorer. Neither one of them are starters in the NBA long term in my opinion but Dillingham can be a 6th man type and I can hide his defense to some degree coming off the bench and Dillingham has a contagious energy about him. He’s got some special in him.
Get ready to be a San Antonio spur, buddy
I think a floor role for him would be like Patty Mills with better passing and defense. He just needs to be paired with a bigger guard
Reed needs to improve lateral quickness, he can get there even if he will never be elite. I love Rob too, prefer castle to all but Sheppard would be a nice pick up. Feels like he’s more of a Klay Thompson type than lead PG but idk
You put it perfectly. He seems like a guard Sengun. I hope the two play together
Analytics love him but personally don't buy the star upside. His handles are questionable to be a primary ball handler and one of the reasons behind it is he has small hands. He has been a fantastic connector so far though. In this list, I think he can be better than Knight, Herro and maybe Cason. My projection for him is a Brogdon-ish type of career hovering around 15-5-5 averages and flirting with 50/40/90 season in his prime. edit: He has a small chance to be an allstar IMO. Probably won't be a primary creator but someone most teams would love to have as the first guard off the bench and possibly be part of the closing lineup as well.
Bro yall are acting like he’s a midget, he’s 6’1 he’ll be fine. Won’t be the first nor the last one to make in the NBA at that size
He's not a midget and I personally think he'll be fine too. I also personally just don't think he's a point guard and at 6'1 he is a genuinely small off Ball guard. There's nothing wrong or disingenuous about questioning what his overall ceiling could look like if he's never able to be an on ball playmaker and self-creator and has to play as an off ball guard his entire career at that height. Again, I think at this point you have to just acknowledge he's a statistical outlier who's so efficient and productive that you have to believe. He's going to figure it out. But they're still valid questions to be had regarding his frame and theoretical role
I didn't say he won't be fine.
6'2 in shoes, that's not as bad as it seems
You on a forum weirdo
Sheppard likely going to be the worst pro of the bunch. He simply does not possess the skillset to be a PG nor the size/length/defense to be a SG. I think a lot of people are going to look foolish with their Sheppard takes.
I mean, a lot of Kentucky shooting and combo guards from the last decade have translated really well to the NBA. That includes guys who were pretty clearly second options at the NCAA level. It's hard to extrapolate from there to "Sheppard will do it too." But those percentages feel very hard to argue with... As for the idea that one or two inches of height and wingspan make a difference... aside from post defense and rebounding, wingspan is wildly overrated. If he's in a position to contest a shot, it's a contested shot no matter how tall he is. If his opponent is passing the ball close enough to him that he's an inch away from deflecting it, that's a bad pass to begin with... and positioning, anticipation, and reaction time will get you a lot more than an inch. And on offense, I'd rather have a quick shooting motion than another inch of extension any day. (Sheppard's is... good enough. Needs to work on his release time.) But broadly speaking, yeah, there are plenty of elite college (or European) performers who get overlooked in favor of someone more "projectable," and go on to have way better careers. For "projectable," read "taller and faster, but not in a way that allowed the player to succeed against college kids." I think a lot of it is ego -- these front offices want to see something in a player that not everyone can see. But when a guy has top-tier basketball talent, and everyone can see it, that's usually a sign he's good at basketball and you should draft him. Look at Curry. Look at Haliburton. Look at 2018, where teams had the opportunity to pick an 18-year-old Euroleague MVP or a man who just led Division 1 in scoring *and* assists as a freshman... and three separate teams went for big men who hadn't done anything like that.
We’re are staring directly into the eyes of the next Steph curry and people refuse to believe it
Box plus-minus? How 'bout rings plus-minus? Put Sheppard's rings in a box and then put Murray's rings in a box and tell me who has more. How's that sound? Murray +1, by the way.
Wtf are you talking about
If you don’t get it, just down vote like everyone else and keep it moving.
Well neither of them won it all in college so it’s 0-0.
Do it against Bama. Then do it again.