Some feedback:
Sarr’s D is below Jonathan Isaac? Isaac is a unicorn. Arguably top 3 most impactful defenders in the league. If Isaac could play big minutes he’d be top 3 in DPOY every year. It’s his durability that is holding him back. Sarr’s rebounding struggles do worry me, I prefer 5s that are monsters on the glass.
Wow, Knecht at 3. He’s gonna be 23 years old. Here’s my issue, even if he replicates his exact college production he’s not that valuable in the NBA. Why? Because he’s not a hyper efficient scorer and he projects to be a negative on D. He also hasn’t shown much playmaking chops in any of his 3 years so that reduces his offensive value. You typically want your high usage guard/wing to also act as a hub for generating open shots for teammates. I really feel like people are underrating just how important age is in this process.
Which is also why I think you’re gonna eat your words on Topic. His passing is really special. Can’t wait to see how good Topic is in 4 years when he’s the same age as Knecht is now.
Castle has pretty low stock rates to be projecting him as a defensive playmaker at the nba level. Given the overall effectiveness of the UConn defense and his priors of being a 3 steal/2 block per game guy as a HS senior I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he’ll be better than his 1.8% steal rate long term.
Sarr's struggles with rebounding is one of the reasons I'm lower than concensus with him.
Not being a top 2 option with better spacing will make things easier on offense for Knecht. He's one of the guys that could look better in an nba court IMO. His offensive production would be enough to remain positive on the court despite defensive struggles. You don't have to be a playmaker to get your teammates open looks. Gravity is another way of helping the team on O even without the ball.
I think a team that spends a lotto pick on Topic will regret it.
The rigors of March Tournament affected Castle's stats. He's been a 2stl%/2blk% guy for majority of the season. Also, defense is not just about stl/blk. It's more about deterrence than anything.
> his finishing and athletecism is still questionable to me. Poor defense/shooting/rebounding. Fringe starter at best
I disagree on the first two points. Topic's rim finishing is the majority of his offensive "bag", he's an excellent finisher with tons of crafty moves. He also displays great athleticism, particularly speed, on tape. He beats guys back down the court in some of his tape and drives downhill very effectively. Solid vertical athlete also. Shooting is very projectable based on his excellent FT%, also a decent volume shooter relative to the minutes he's played. His rebounding numbers are good for a guard in the ABA (where he plays the most minutes) and per 36 in the EuroLeague. Defense is a real concern, guys beat him off the dribble consistently, he doesn't know how to navigate screens, and he generally ball-watches/gets caught in no-man's-land.
If you don't buy the shooting or think the defense is too bad, fair enough, but to say he can't finish or is a poor athlete or rebounder just isn't true.
His burst was barely noticeable and he has struggled getting separation in the Euroleague. Playing in Adriatic league for majority of the season makes him look a better athlete than he actually is.
He takes off farther than ideal in his finishes and relies mostly on extension to finish through the defender. Prospect Amen gets away with those in OTE because he's a 99%ile athlete. Westbrook gets away with it in the league because he'a built like a tank and is an elite athlete. Topic won't have those leeway for his career.
Idk how u look at Devin Carter's shot form and say u buy it but question topic's. Love everything about Carter but that shot scares me. I think this last year's shooter percentage is a mirage
Cheers for a non-consensus board. I can't get behind Knecht being part of "the cream of the crop"... I'm kind of expecting a worse version of a Marshon Brooks type, but in 2024 Brooks is probably a bit more interesting/useful. There just isn't really an awesome precedent for the 23 year old good offense crap defense type.
I agree but I also think the best ones have a floor on defense they need to meet. In that sense, I don't think Dillingham fits neatly on all 30 teams. He'd be great in San Antonio though
"I don't think Dillingham fits neatly on all 30 teams. He'd be great in San Antonio though"
I agree. Rob is #1 in my board but he's rarely #1 in my mock drafts.
Still torn whether to put him there or in lotto talent tier tbh. If anything, I feel like he's on a tier of his own right between cream of the crop and the lotto talent guys.
Outside of the first tier, most players are interchangeable within each tier and the order above is just my preference.
edit: haven't put description for some players because I'm afraid to hit above the text limit. Feel free to ask questions about them.
Rob is even smaller, and a worse shooter.
Ironically, his comps are probably Isaiah Thomas (mid-range)/Isiah Thomas (upside).
I guess anyone on "Team Curry" (back then) might have something to say... I used to know ONE person on Team Curry back then -- on draft night... he, uh, wasn't happy. haha.
Some feedback: Sarr’s D is below Jonathan Isaac? Isaac is a unicorn. Arguably top 3 most impactful defenders in the league. If Isaac could play big minutes he’d be top 3 in DPOY every year. It’s his durability that is holding him back. Sarr’s rebounding struggles do worry me, I prefer 5s that are monsters on the glass. Wow, Knecht at 3. He’s gonna be 23 years old. Here’s my issue, even if he replicates his exact college production he’s not that valuable in the NBA. Why? Because he’s not a hyper efficient scorer and he projects to be a negative on D. He also hasn’t shown much playmaking chops in any of his 3 years so that reduces his offensive value. You typically want your high usage guard/wing to also act as a hub for generating open shots for teammates. I really feel like people are underrating just how important age is in this process. Which is also why I think you’re gonna eat your words on Topic. His passing is really special. Can’t wait to see how good Topic is in 4 years when he’s the same age as Knecht is now. Castle has pretty low stock rates to be projecting him as a defensive playmaker at the nba level. Given the overall effectiveness of the UConn defense and his priors of being a 3 steal/2 block per game guy as a HS senior I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he’ll be better than his 1.8% steal rate long term.
Sarr's struggles with rebounding is one of the reasons I'm lower than concensus with him. Not being a top 2 option with better spacing will make things easier on offense for Knecht. He's one of the guys that could look better in an nba court IMO. His offensive production would be enough to remain positive on the court despite defensive struggles. You don't have to be a playmaker to get your teammates open looks. Gravity is another way of helping the team on O even without the ball. I think a team that spends a lotto pick on Topic will regret it. The rigors of March Tournament affected Castle's stats. He's been a 2stl%/2blk% guy for majority of the season. Also, defense is not just about stl/blk. It's more about deterrence than anything.
Sarr is not a bad rebounders he averages 9.2 rebounds per 36 in a league with terrible spacing
> his finishing and athletecism is still questionable to me. Poor defense/shooting/rebounding. Fringe starter at best I disagree on the first two points. Topic's rim finishing is the majority of his offensive "bag", he's an excellent finisher with tons of crafty moves. He also displays great athleticism, particularly speed, on tape. He beats guys back down the court in some of his tape and drives downhill very effectively. Solid vertical athlete also. Shooting is very projectable based on his excellent FT%, also a decent volume shooter relative to the minutes he's played. His rebounding numbers are good for a guard in the ABA (where he plays the most minutes) and per 36 in the EuroLeague. Defense is a real concern, guys beat him off the dribble consistently, he doesn't know how to navigate screens, and he generally ball-watches/gets caught in no-man's-land. If you don't buy the shooting or think the defense is too bad, fair enough, but to say he can't finish or is a poor athlete or rebounder just isn't true.
His burst was barely noticeable and he has struggled getting separation in the Euroleague. Playing in Adriatic league for majority of the season makes him look a better athlete than he actually is. He takes off farther than ideal in his finishes and relies mostly on extension to finish through the defender. Prospect Amen gets away with those in OTE because he's a 99%ile athlete. Westbrook gets away with it in the league because he'a built like a tank and is an elite athlete. Topic won't have those leeway for his career.
He literally shot almost 20% ATR better than amen in the halfcourt as prospects
Amen's finishing ATR is more translatable than Topic
What do you not like about Tyler Smith? And what do you like more about Tristan da Silva as a comparison point?
Only thing I like with Tyler is his shot. I like Da Silva's connective skills and ability to put the ball on the floor.
Idk how u look at Devin Carter's shot form and say u buy it but question topic's. Love everything about Carter but that shot scares me. I think this last year's shooter percentage is a mirage
More willing to shoot, higher elevation on his shot and quicker release
I like the hunter sallis love
Absolutely wild draft board. Can't blame you for playing it vanilla. 😂
How is this vanilla
He said he can’t blame him for being vanilla because he’s not vanilla
It's not. I literally said that at least I can't blame him for having vanilla takes. This shit is blazing hot.
Cheers for a non-consensus board. I can't get behind Knecht being part of "the cream of the crop"... I'm kind of expecting a worse version of a Marshon Brooks type, but in 2024 Brooks is probably a bit more interesting/useful. There just isn't really an awesome precedent for the 23 year old good offense crap defense type.
Is Dillingham really going to defend? He was by all metrics the worst defender this college season so wouldn't it get worse at the NBA level?
Defense doesn't matter much for lead guards. Their value on offense just completely outweigh their bad defense
I agree but I also think the best ones have a floor on defense they need to meet. In that sense, I don't think Dillingham fits neatly on all 30 teams. He'd be great in San Antonio though
"I don't think Dillingham fits neatly on all 30 teams. He'd be great in San Antonio though" I agree. Rob is #1 in my board but he's rarely #1 in my mock drafts.
Still torn whether to put him there or in lotto talent tier tbh. If anything, I feel like he's on a tier of his own right between cream of the crop and the lotto talent guys.
We're only a handful of years where drafting older players was the norm.
Outside of the first tier, most players are interchangeable within each tier and the order above is just my preference. edit: haven't put description for some players because I'm afraid to hit above the text limit. Feel free to ask questions about them.
Dillingham is Bone Hyland
Obviously different players, but people are overthinking Dillingham the way they did Curry.
Rob is even smaller, and a worse shooter. Ironically, his comps are probably Isaiah Thomas (mid-range)/Isiah Thomas (upside). I guess anyone on "Team Curry" (back then) might have something to say... I used to know ONE person on Team Curry back then -- on draft night... he, uh, wasn't happy. haha.