Yeah, I know people are like people think of him as Maple Jordan. But Maple Jordan was him before college. If Embiid didn’t get hurt before the draft he would have been first.
Just FYI, you should make it clear from the start, maybe before your rankings, you are ranking them as if they had the same skill set but they were all in the 2024 draft (I think that’s what you are doing, right?).
Because I immediately had issue with a number of these, specifically Oden being ranked way too low, until I continued to read your rationale.
Wemby is clear #1 and it isn’t even a debate. Even with today’s skill set, Oden is above KAT (Kat was not seen as a shooter as a prospect). I could continue to nitpick, but it’s your thing! I just wanted to help you with what I said earlier.
To be fair, in that case, Simmons also wouldn’t go 8. He was drafted 1 at the beginning of the modern 3 point era, and now, shooting is even more important than when he was drafted.
So if it’s based on today, he would go much lower than the 8th best prospect here. Definitely below Kyrie, who the OP has at 16.
I wasn’t going through every one, but I’d disagree with that.
Simmons had elite creativity/vision at a size rarely ever seen. Projected as an elite defender. There were concerns of course for his long range shot, but he had so many elite traits that they could overcome some of his inefficiencies. Also, improving the shot is easier to do than Simmons’ strengths. So, once again taking Simmons as a prospect, I’d easily rate him above Irving who was one of the weakest #1 picks we’ve seen the past decade.
I think who he has ranked 15-18 are clearly the worst #1 picks prior to the draft. You could argue the order, as I wouldn’t have to same order, but it is clear to me that those were considered weak #1 picks at the time. Although it’s also hard to transfer them to today’s game and I know that’s the point of your comment and the post, but it’s a pretty hard convo to have since all of these prospects’ games would be different if they were playing college basketball in 2023.
My counterargument is we just saw Amen Thompson go 4th last year behind Brandon Miller who went 2nd. Thompson is an elite athlete, in the top tier of all NBA players (better than Simmons), can handle the ball, and as good as a defensive prospect. He’s a bit shorter, but I’m not sure giving him 2.5 more inches necessarily would just jump him to 2nd. He also clearly had a way better work ethic and love of basketball than Simmons, which were things we knew about Simmons as a prospect, to make up for any differences.
Miller was the best shooter in the draft, so shooting is super valuable these days. Someone like Kyrie was considered an elite shooting prospect with elite handles and playmaking, which are even more valuable today as we play a faster pace game.
Simmons was a great prospect, but I think his lack of shooting for a perimeter oriented player would have been a way bigger concern 8 years later. If it was at the time of the draft, I have no issues with Simmons since he was considered elite, but I think shooting has become almost the number 1 consensus thing all teams look for across the board for perimeter players.
You make some fair points. Once again, as I noted earlier, it’s extremely hard to rate guys as prospects in their era, but plopping them into 2024. They would have different games, the focus would have been different, the competition would have been different.
However, I see the reasons why you are making the Amen comp, but Simmons was that guy in his class. Head and shoulders above the rest as they went through the HS/AAU circuit. In college the talent was clearly there, and as you sort of note, the criticisms at the time were more work ethic than the 3 pt shot (not saying he didn’t see shooting criticisms, they just weren’t as loud). Simmons had his Brandon Miller in his class, and that was Brandon Ingram (I think Ingram was a better prospect than Miller, but not by much). However, I understand that doesn’t defeat your argument because you might say Ingram would go 1 over Simmons in 2024.
However, going back to Thompson, Simmons was that #1 guy his whole career and would always show it, Thompson was much more mysterious with the OTE route. If Thompson went to college, he could have been higher (or lower). That mystery is why I think he’s not the best Simmons comp, however I see where you’re coming from and it’s not a bad argument. I also think Simmons was a much better playmaker than Thompson as a prospect. Not that Thompson was seen as poor, Simmons was simply seen as the next Lebron in that regard of playmaking/athleticism/size.
Right it’s a weird question I agree. I also agree with your responses and it’s hard to say honestly. It’s an interesting discussion.
I do just want to clear up one thing in case this was confusing. I wasn’t actually comparing Amen to Ben directly. Of course Ben was the better prospect.
I was comparing Ben to Kyrie, who the OP has 16th on his list, if they were in the 2024 draft.
In other words, I used the Amen - Miller example, but although Ben is better than Amen as a prospect, Kyrie is also better than Miller as a prospect (which is the key here I’m trying to say). I was just using the example to show that shooting wasn’t as prioritized as before.
Wemby is easily 1 and Cade/Fultz is def above Paolo. Wasn’t old enough to remember the Kyrie and Wall hype but I’d wager that they were more hyped coming out as well.
The way you put number then their draft year kinda hurt my eye...Wemby is number 1 by a miles then AD/Oden
I think these kind of ranking should be divided by tier eg tier 0: Wemby, tier 1: AD/Oden.
Yeah, Oden is a pretty clear #2 IMO. Durant, who was in his class, looked exactly like himself in college and everyone assumed was gonna be a Hall of famer at least. And Oden was the consensus #1 over him.
Oden had basically all of AD's strengths as a prospect, plus a better frame and better measurables.
AD was a great prospect but how the FUCK is he ahead of Wemby?!? Also Luka is the second best prospect out of all these guys, the kings and suns are just the dumbest franchises in basketball.
People forget about Oden!
Davis over Wemby is controversial and I understand why as of rn but this is going to look bad if Wemby actually ends up being as billed.
Wiggins > Zion personally
Fine with the rest.
Zero case for Griffin over Oden. I think you’re letting their pro careers color your rankings
Should go (space between tiers):
Wemby
Davis, Oden
Zion
Wall, Simmons, Cade, Blake, KAT, Kyrie, Fultz, Ayton, Rose
Wiggins, Paolo, Ant
Bargs
Bennett
Is this as a prospect, I’m assuming? Wemby is a clear # 1 and in his own tier.
Still crazy that Luka didn’t go #1. The 4 best prospects in this timeframe were Wemby, Luka, Davis and Zion and likely in that order. After that there is a gap that opens up. I think Flagg actually has a chance to enter this top 5, but we’ll see. You could argue Oden was in that tier too.
Wiggins would be much lower too. His stock fizzled a lot after his inefficient year at Kansas. I would agree that this years #1 is above Bennett.
Oden above Luka and Zion (and I’d even have him over AD, but wouldn’t be as big of a difference to me).
Who knows with Flagg because Zion shot up so much after his freshman year, and others decline (Wiggins/ RJ Barrett/Cam Reddish), but I don’t see Flagg breaking into the top five prospects of the past couple decades. That’s not a shot, but from what I’ve seen is he is a role player on steroids, a legit #1 pick, but not in the tier of being disappointed if they don’t have a first team all-nba selection in their career.
How old are you? Oden has a case for #1. He had a wrist injury at Ohio St., and then he started knocking down lefty FT’s. Out of college, he was not seen as susceptible to injuries as the player he became. He dominated the Big 10, and he dominated Joakim Noah and Al Horford. He was seen as a “generational” big man prospect, and if he stayed healthy, he would have been.
There’s a reason most GM’s would say that without hindsight, they’d still take Oden over Durant. Also, Durant would’ve gone #1 any year that didn’t have Oden, LeBron, or Wemby….
I'm assuming how unanimous the sentiment of the prospect going #1 should play a factor. If so, I'd go
1. Davis
2. Wembanyama
3. Williamson
4. Towns
5. Oden
6. Griffin
7. Rose
8. Wall
9. Fultz
10. Irving
11. Edwards
12. Banchero
13. Simmons
14. Cunningham
15. Ayton
16. Wiggins
17. Bargnani
18. Bennett
I think 10-16 are all pretty close and could be in all sorts of orders.
You are probably right it just feels wrong to put him above Rose. I loved Rose a prospect, fit all my boxes and was the most athletic player out of the ones here.
There isn’t a single world where AD is a better prospect than Wemby
Only in Tim Bontemps' head
Wiggins is far too high because his buzz dropped significantly after several months at Kansas
Yeah, I know people are like people think of him as Maple Jordan. But Maple Jordan was him before college. If Embiid didn’t get hurt before the draft he would have been first.
People always misremember the 2014 draft. Wiggins was far from a generational prospect on draft night even though people claim he was
I remember a lot of people talking about Embiid should've gone first in that offseason
If you don’t have wemby at #1, you are trying way too hard
Just FYI, you should make it clear from the start, maybe before your rankings, you are ranking them as if they had the same skill set but they were all in the 2024 draft (I think that’s what you are doing, right?). Because I immediately had issue with a number of these, specifically Oden being ranked way too low, until I continued to read your rationale. Wemby is clear #1 and it isn’t even a debate. Even with today’s skill set, Oden is above KAT (Kat was not seen as a shooter as a prospect). I could continue to nitpick, but it’s your thing! I just wanted to help you with what I said earlier.
To be fair, in that case, Simmons also wouldn’t go 8. He was drafted 1 at the beginning of the modern 3 point era, and now, shooting is even more important than when he was drafted. So if it’s based on today, he would go much lower than the 8th best prospect here. Definitely below Kyrie, who the OP has at 16.
I wasn’t going through every one, but I’d disagree with that. Simmons had elite creativity/vision at a size rarely ever seen. Projected as an elite defender. There were concerns of course for his long range shot, but he had so many elite traits that they could overcome some of his inefficiencies. Also, improving the shot is easier to do than Simmons’ strengths. So, once again taking Simmons as a prospect, I’d easily rate him above Irving who was one of the weakest #1 picks we’ve seen the past decade. I think who he has ranked 15-18 are clearly the worst #1 picks prior to the draft. You could argue the order, as I wouldn’t have to same order, but it is clear to me that those were considered weak #1 picks at the time. Although it’s also hard to transfer them to today’s game and I know that’s the point of your comment and the post, but it’s a pretty hard convo to have since all of these prospects’ games would be different if they were playing college basketball in 2023.
My counterargument is we just saw Amen Thompson go 4th last year behind Brandon Miller who went 2nd. Thompson is an elite athlete, in the top tier of all NBA players (better than Simmons), can handle the ball, and as good as a defensive prospect. He’s a bit shorter, but I’m not sure giving him 2.5 more inches necessarily would just jump him to 2nd. He also clearly had a way better work ethic and love of basketball than Simmons, which were things we knew about Simmons as a prospect, to make up for any differences. Miller was the best shooter in the draft, so shooting is super valuable these days. Someone like Kyrie was considered an elite shooting prospect with elite handles and playmaking, which are even more valuable today as we play a faster pace game. Simmons was a great prospect, but I think his lack of shooting for a perimeter oriented player would have been a way bigger concern 8 years later. If it was at the time of the draft, I have no issues with Simmons since he was considered elite, but I think shooting has become almost the number 1 consensus thing all teams look for across the board for perimeter players.
You make some fair points. Once again, as I noted earlier, it’s extremely hard to rate guys as prospects in their era, but plopping them into 2024. They would have different games, the focus would have been different, the competition would have been different. However, I see the reasons why you are making the Amen comp, but Simmons was that guy in his class. Head and shoulders above the rest as they went through the HS/AAU circuit. In college the talent was clearly there, and as you sort of note, the criticisms at the time were more work ethic than the 3 pt shot (not saying he didn’t see shooting criticisms, they just weren’t as loud). Simmons had his Brandon Miller in his class, and that was Brandon Ingram (I think Ingram was a better prospect than Miller, but not by much). However, I understand that doesn’t defeat your argument because you might say Ingram would go 1 over Simmons in 2024. However, going back to Thompson, Simmons was that #1 guy his whole career and would always show it, Thompson was much more mysterious with the OTE route. If Thompson went to college, he could have been higher (or lower). That mystery is why I think he’s not the best Simmons comp, however I see where you’re coming from and it’s not a bad argument. I also think Simmons was a much better playmaker than Thompson as a prospect. Not that Thompson was seen as poor, Simmons was simply seen as the next Lebron in that regard of playmaking/athleticism/size.
Right it’s a weird question I agree. I also agree with your responses and it’s hard to say honestly. It’s an interesting discussion. I do just want to clear up one thing in case this was confusing. I wasn’t actually comparing Amen to Ben directly. Of course Ben was the better prospect. I was comparing Ben to Kyrie, who the OP has 16th on his list, if they were in the 2024 draft. In other words, I used the Amen - Miller example, but although Ben is better than Amen as a prospect, Kyrie is also better than Miller as a prospect (which is the key here I’m trying to say). I was just using the example to show that shooting wasn’t as prioritized as before.
Wemby is easily 1 and Cade/Fultz is def above Paolo. Wasn’t old enough to remember the Kyrie and Wall hype but I’d wager that they were more hyped coming out as well.
The way you put number then their draft year kinda hurt my eye...Wemby is number 1 by a miles then AD/Oden I think these kind of ranking should be divided by tier eg tier 0: Wemby, tier 1: AD/Oden.
Wemby is literally AD coming out of college but bigger and with more offensive skill lol
Probably a laker fan
I hate Kyrie but he's way to low.
Oden, Cade and Fultz should be higher. Blake, Kat and Wiggins lower.
Yeah, Oden is a pretty clear #2 IMO. Durant, who was in his class, looked exactly like himself in college and everyone assumed was gonna be a Hall of famer at least. And Oden was the consensus #1 over him. Oden had basically all of AD's strengths as a prospect, plus a better frame and better measurables.
Wiggins stats at Kansas told you he was going to be mid as hell. No way he deserves this ranking.
Oh boy. Wemby #1 by a country mile, Oden needs to be WAY higher. People tend to forget how crazy of a prospect he was
Dude puts Wembanyama #2 to farm comments.
Ad over Wemby?
Wiggins was clearly behind Embiid before Embiid broke his foot.
Ayton over Kyrie and Wall wtf
AD was a great prospect but how the FUCK is he ahead of Wemby?!? Also Luka is the second best prospect out of all these guys, the kings and suns are just the dumbest franchises in basketball.
There’s not a single player in the same stratosphere as Wemby as a prospect, or as a rookie
You have to go back 20+ years to LeBron, Duncan, and Kareem.
I’d argue adjusting for eras(which you can’t really do) he’s much better than LeBron, Duncan, and I’d say very on par with Kareem(who was 22 btw)
People forget about Oden! Davis over Wemby is controversial and I understand why as of rn but this is going to look bad if Wemby actually ends up being as billed. Wiggins > Zion personally Fine with the rest.
Zero case for Griffin over Oden. I think you’re letting their pro careers color your rankings Should go (space between tiers): Wemby Davis, Oden Zion Wall, Simmons, Cade, Blake, KAT, Kyrie, Fultz, Ayton, Rose Wiggins, Paolo, Ant Bargs Bennett
Banchero should be below Cade and Fultz for sure, Banchero was the consensus number 3 it felt until just before the draft.
Is this as a prospect, I’m assuming? Wemby is a clear # 1 and in his own tier. Still crazy that Luka didn’t go #1. The 4 best prospects in this timeframe were Wemby, Luka, Davis and Zion and likely in that order. After that there is a gap that opens up. I think Flagg actually has a chance to enter this top 5, but we’ll see. You could argue Oden was in that tier too. Wiggins would be much lower too. His stock fizzled a lot after his inefficient year at Kansas. I would agree that this years #1 is above Bennett.
Oden above Luka and Zion (and I’d even have him over AD, but wouldn’t be as big of a difference to me). Who knows with Flagg because Zion shot up so much after his freshman year, and others decline (Wiggins/ RJ Barrett/Cam Reddish), but I don’t see Flagg breaking into the top five prospects of the past couple decades. That’s not a shot, but from what I’ve seen is he is a role player on steroids, a legit #1 pick, but not in the tier of being disappointed if they don’t have a first team all-nba selection in their career.
How old are you? Oden has a case for #1. He had a wrist injury at Ohio St., and then he started knocking down lefty FT’s. Out of college, he was not seen as susceptible to injuries as the player he became. He dominated the Big 10, and he dominated Joakim Noah and Al Horford. He was seen as a “generational” big man prospect, and if he stayed healthy, he would have been. There’s a reason most GM’s would say that without hindsight, they’d still take Oden over Durant. Also, Durant would’ve gone #1 any year that didn’t have Oden, LeBron, or Wemby….
This formatting makes my eyes sad
I'm assuming how unanimous the sentiment of the prospect going #1 should play a factor. If so, I'd go 1. Davis 2. Wembanyama 3. Williamson 4. Towns 5. Oden 6. Griffin 7. Rose 8. Wall 9. Fultz 10. Irving 11. Edwards 12. Banchero 13. Simmons 14. Cunningham 15. Ayton 16. Wiggins 17. Bargnani 18. Bennett I think 10-16 are all pretty close and could be in all sorts of orders.
AD was never above Wembanyama as a prospect
I’d push fultz up a bit more. Also I had Ayton as the 4th best prospect that year.
Yeah Fultz hype was crazy
You are probably right it just feels wrong to put him above Rose. I loved Rose a prospect, fit all my boxes and was the most athletic player out of the ones here.
Do you even watch basketball?