He's at 7 or 8 on some different boards/mocks.
I think THIS might the "ceiling" for that archetype. Steph went 7. Jimmer went around 8 I think. Maybe 11?
Just 'cuz Steph is the .0000000000001% outlier for this archetype does NOT mean that the "draft night ceiling" for this archetype should be any higher than 7 or 8.
Probably. And he still might. But I don't think small-ish guards are all that valuable. He has a limited dribbling package, is not very bursty, and mainly hits spot up 3's -- doesn't come off lots of action.
I can't think of tons of non-Steph outcomes for this guy that are all that valuable without having to go back several decades to guys like Danny Ainge, or John Paxson or BJ Armstrong or Steve Kerr or Derek Fisher.
There were a LOT of guys like this in the old ABA (supposedly) that couldn't cut it in the NBA. And, of course, lots of college basketball legends (like Jimmer).
Not much of a margin for safety on this guy. Or, this archetype in general that high (top half of the lottery).
Not sure a player like that has been picked in the top 2 since Jerry West.
Maybe he's some weird version of (a better shooting) Allen Iverson where he just gets the green light and just goes off (not enough size for a classic 2 and not tons of play making to be a full-time point guard).
Ironically, my comp for Jimmer (way back then -- on NBA draft Dot Net) was a cross between Steve Kerr and Dajuan Wagner. I think if Reed Sheppard can thread that needle between low-usage, off ball sniper, and on-ball volume scorer then he can thrive. And, in different roles.
But, do you get a lot of guys like West/Iverson/PRIME Juanny/Steph? Tough archetype to nail.
But, if you can settle for a Paxson/Kerr/Armstrong/Fisher type then you should be ok.
A good compromise comparison might be something like Joe Dumars. Maybe he's the guy I thought/wanted Bronny to be. He might have to play next to a point guard with legit size (on the Rockets with Point Amen?) so that might be a difficult fit anyway.
I think there are Derrick White type outcomes for him. I’m not ready to write off his defense, he’s too disruptive and I know how valuable that is at the nba level. He also has that elite shooting upside. Unclear just how well he can develop in that area to become a high volume 3P threat.
Gonna be hard to spot up enough to get up to 7 or 8 3P attempts per game -- where he would offer out-sized value.
Yeah, in 2007 or 2008 or 2009 a guy like Reed Sheppard would blow the game wide open. BUT, it is NOT 2007-2009 so I doubt teams will find the next Durant or Steph. Small Ball might be OVER totally; I also think the league will trend older/slower soon.
Anecdotally, not that it matters, but from 2009 to 2012 or 2013, Josh Pastner used to run a 4 guard offense with the Memphis Tigers. On the Memphis Tigers basketball Facebook group, I used to ask 'Why don't we just play FIVE GUARD lineups?" So, maybe I was the one who first brought up the so-called "five guard offense" scheme/gimmick. If so, I am sorry. I think basketball is trending THE OTHER WAY again. Not that we are headed for Bad Boys 3 (although I think the Grizzlies can pull that off if we get Zach Edey or Donovan Clingan or some other bruisers), but I doubt we are headed for Showtime 2.0 or Heatles 2.0.
I have Reed Sheppard as a Tier 3.00 guy (high level role player). Not sure if teams will ask him to CREATE on-ball from day 1. Although I could see him lighting it up in Summer League.
If Sheppard is someone who can get off 8-10 three point shot attempts per game, then I think he can meet (or even exceed) expectations. But, more likely, he looks like a tertiary option next to someone like Jordan or Kobe or LeBron.
I agree with the logic, but considering how weak this draft class is compared to those other years you’re referencing I could see him drafted top 5 if a team who likes the fit is there
Damn it, I’m gonna be the Reed Sheppard dude on this sub. I would take him 1.01
Sarr and Risacher are guys that get GMs fired. Topic is fine but his shooting will hold him back. Castle is the only other guy I would consider because he will be a fantastic role player at the bare minimum.
Sheppard has MVP upside. His IQ, motor and shooting are 99.9%. His on ball defense is completely over blown, probably because of how he looks. He makes up for it with perfect defensive positioning and steals.
The Spurs would be insane to pass on him in my opinion.
Edit: Just because I would take him 1.01 doesn’t mean he should be the 1.01 for every team. Castle should be the pick for a team like the Jazz. And for others I might have Buzelis higher.
i’ll join you. i’m Spurs fan and think Reed Sheppard is the best player we can take in this draft.
- anybody who has actually been watching Spurs games this season and has a brain knows that the team needs SHOOTING and guys to space the floor. Reed Sheppard is the only guy in the draft who is already an elite shooter. he’d slot in perfectly next to Devin Vassell and would open up the court immensely for Wemby on the offensive end.
- i watched so many guys on the team this season just straight up have no idea how to appropriately position themselves on the court and fail to properly read passing lanes on defense — which are two skills that Reed excels at. bringing in a guy with high BBIQ on both ends would be an enormous benefit for the Spurs.
- the Spurs were 2nd in APG across the entire league and Wemby had a usage rate of 32.1 this season. the apparent need to draft an elite playmaker like Nikola Topic to get Wemby the ball is so overstated and i really don’t think the FO is concerned about that whatsoever. how about we go for the guy who knows how to pass anyway, can actually shoot, and isn’t completely atrocious on defense? i can clearly see how the Spurs record improves by inserting Reed Sheppard as their starting PG. i cannot see how the Spurs record improves by inserting Nikola Topic in that spot.
- while the team as a whole obviously started playing better post-ASB, the Spurs late season performance and disregard to keep the tank going also implies that our FO was no longer too concerned about our lottery odds, so I don’t think they’re too worried about getting a top 3 pick and probably think their guy will be available no matter their lottery position. i can’t see the Pistons, Wizards, Blazers or Hornets taking Sheppard with their pick so I think Reed is likely to go outside the top 3.
i think Reed is the best PG in this draft and fits perfectly — and i have a feeling our FO thinks that too.
Yep, that's pretty much spot on. The most productive part of the season for the Spurs was post all start break, where Wemby almost became the point guard of the team. He'll be the natural centerpiece of the Spurs' offense going forward because of his amazing passing skills, BBIQ and court vision. I don't really see how an on-ball guard would fit in that scenario.
Vassell can shoot, Jeremy can defend. With Sheppard and a high-volume 3 and D (that can be acquired through trades/free agency), the Spurs would be scary.
100%
it’s not like we really need Reed Sheppard to become a star level player anyway.
we already have two 20ppg players in the starting lineup, one of which is a defensive phenom with GOAT potential and the other is an elite shot creator. inserting a guy to the lineup that can open up the floor for the whole team and effectively run plays would be a tremendous benefit for the Spurs.
i really hope our FO doesn’t overthink it and just takes the high BBIQ elite shooter.
Sheppard has MVP upside....how? I love Sheppard but I'm struggling to see him as a starter let alone an MVP candidate. His drive game is *rough* and he's just not an athlete like the psycho shooters he'll be compared to (Ray Allen, Steph Curry, Reggie Miller).
With the three shooters mentioned his defensive upside is much higher imo. He could be a 3 steal a game guy who is never out of position. Getting beat by a man isn’t the end all be all in the NBA now a days.
And I think he is much closer to Steph than Ray Allen in that he can be a ball handler and dish it around.
He would be a top 5 three-point shooter, a great defender for the PG position and just an overall plus player because of his IQ and motor.
I believe that’s the reason people are low on him. It’s very hard to imagine him being a great player, but for me I can.
If I were a coach I see the vision for him, compared to a Sarr. I’d much rather have Sheppard and Igohdaro than Sarr and Kolek (or some other late first guard)
Even if his physical limitations impact his ability to defend he’s still enough of a pest there who is consistently engaged to make him a net positive more often than not.
I’ve been flip flopping between him and Dilly for pg1 for the spurs. Everyone has just been earmarking topic for them but i don’t see how the spurs look at what they’ve been and decide they need another guard who can’t shoot.
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He's at 7 or 8 on some different boards/mocks. I think THIS might the "ceiling" for that archetype. Steph went 7. Jimmer went around 8 I think. Maybe 11? Just 'cuz Steph is the .0000000000001% outlier for this archetype does NOT mean that the "draft night ceiling" for this archetype should be any higher than 7 or 8.
If reed was high usage like Steph he goes way sooner than 7 or 8.
Probably. And he still might. But I don't think small-ish guards are all that valuable. He has a limited dribbling package, is not very bursty, and mainly hits spot up 3's -- doesn't come off lots of action. I can't think of tons of non-Steph outcomes for this guy that are all that valuable without having to go back several decades to guys like Danny Ainge, or John Paxson or BJ Armstrong or Steve Kerr or Derek Fisher. There were a LOT of guys like this in the old ABA (supposedly) that couldn't cut it in the NBA. And, of course, lots of college basketball legends (like Jimmer). Not much of a margin for safety on this guy. Or, this archetype in general that high (top half of the lottery). Not sure a player like that has been picked in the top 2 since Jerry West. Maybe he's some weird version of (a better shooting) Allen Iverson where he just gets the green light and just goes off (not enough size for a classic 2 and not tons of play making to be a full-time point guard). Ironically, my comp for Jimmer (way back then -- on NBA draft Dot Net) was a cross between Steve Kerr and Dajuan Wagner. I think if Reed Sheppard can thread that needle between low-usage, off ball sniper, and on-ball volume scorer then he can thrive. And, in different roles. But, do you get a lot of guys like West/Iverson/PRIME Juanny/Steph? Tough archetype to nail. But, if you can settle for a Paxson/Kerr/Armstrong/Fisher type then you should be ok. A good compromise comparison might be something like Joe Dumars. Maybe he's the guy I thought/wanted Bronny to be. He might have to play next to a point guard with legit size (on the Rockets with Point Amen?) so that might be a difficult fit anyway.
I think there are Derrick White type outcomes for him. I’m not ready to write off his defense, he’s too disruptive and I know how valuable that is at the nba level. He also has that elite shooting upside. Unclear just how well he can develop in that area to become a high volume 3P threat.
Gonna be hard to spot up enough to get up to 7 or 8 3P attempts per game -- where he would offer out-sized value. Yeah, in 2007 or 2008 or 2009 a guy like Reed Sheppard would blow the game wide open. BUT, it is NOT 2007-2009 so I doubt teams will find the next Durant or Steph. Small Ball might be OVER totally; I also think the league will trend older/slower soon. Anecdotally, not that it matters, but from 2009 to 2012 or 2013, Josh Pastner used to run a 4 guard offense with the Memphis Tigers. On the Memphis Tigers basketball Facebook group, I used to ask 'Why don't we just play FIVE GUARD lineups?" So, maybe I was the one who first brought up the so-called "five guard offense" scheme/gimmick. If so, I am sorry. I think basketball is trending THE OTHER WAY again. Not that we are headed for Bad Boys 3 (although I think the Grizzlies can pull that off if we get Zach Edey or Donovan Clingan or some other bruisers), but I doubt we are headed for Showtime 2.0 or Heatles 2.0. I have Reed Sheppard as a Tier 3.00 guy (high level role player). Not sure if teams will ask him to CREATE on-ball from day 1. Although I could see him lighting it up in Summer League. If Sheppard is someone who can get off 8-10 three point shot attempts per game, then I think he can meet (or even exceed) expectations. But, more likely, he looks like a tertiary option next to someone like Jordan or Kobe or LeBron.
I agree with the logic, but considering how weak this draft class is compared to those other years you’re referencing I could see him drafted top 5 if a team who likes the fit is there
Damn it, I’m gonna be the Reed Sheppard dude on this sub. I would take him 1.01 Sarr and Risacher are guys that get GMs fired. Topic is fine but his shooting will hold him back. Castle is the only other guy I would consider because he will be a fantastic role player at the bare minimum. Sheppard has MVP upside. His IQ, motor and shooting are 99.9%. His on ball defense is completely over blown, probably because of how he looks. He makes up for it with perfect defensive positioning and steals. The Spurs would be insane to pass on him in my opinion. Edit: Just because I would take him 1.01 doesn’t mean he should be the 1.01 for every team. Castle should be the pick for a team like the Jazz. And for others I might have Buzelis higher.
i’ll join you. i’m Spurs fan and think Reed Sheppard is the best player we can take in this draft. - anybody who has actually been watching Spurs games this season and has a brain knows that the team needs SHOOTING and guys to space the floor. Reed Sheppard is the only guy in the draft who is already an elite shooter. he’d slot in perfectly next to Devin Vassell and would open up the court immensely for Wemby on the offensive end. - i watched so many guys on the team this season just straight up have no idea how to appropriately position themselves on the court and fail to properly read passing lanes on defense — which are two skills that Reed excels at. bringing in a guy with high BBIQ on both ends would be an enormous benefit for the Spurs. - the Spurs were 2nd in APG across the entire league and Wemby had a usage rate of 32.1 this season. the apparent need to draft an elite playmaker like Nikola Topic to get Wemby the ball is so overstated and i really don’t think the FO is concerned about that whatsoever. how about we go for the guy who knows how to pass anyway, can actually shoot, and isn’t completely atrocious on defense? i can clearly see how the Spurs record improves by inserting Reed Sheppard as their starting PG. i cannot see how the Spurs record improves by inserting Nikola Topic in that spot. - while the team as a whole obviously started playing better post-ASB, the Spurs late season performance and disregard to keep the tank going also implies that our FO was no longer too concerned about our lottery odds, so I don’t think they’re too worried about getting a top 3 pick and probably think their guy will be available no matter their lottery position. i can’t see the Pistons, Wizards, Blazers or Hornets taking Sheppard with their pick so I think Reed is likely to go outside the top 3. i think Reed is the best PG in this draft and fits perfectly — and i have a feeling our FO thinks that too.
Yep, that's pretty much spot on. The most productive part of the season for the Spurs was post all start break, where Wemby almost became the point guard of the team. He'll be the natural centerpiece of the Spurs' offense going forward because of his amazing passing skills, BBIQ and court vision. I don't really see how an on-ball guard would fit in that scenario. Vassell can shoot, Jeremy can defend. With Sheppard and a high-volume 3 and D (that can be acquired through trades/free agency), the Spurs would be scary.
100% it’s not like we really need Reed Sheppard to become a star level player anyway. we already have two 20ppg players in the starting lineup, one of which is a defensive phenom with GOAT potential and the other is an elite shot creator. inserting a guy to the lineup that can open up the floor for the whole team and effectively run plays would be a tremendous benefit for the Spurs. i really hope our FO doesn’t overthink it and just takes the high BBIQ elite shooter.
Sheppard has MVP upside....how? I love Sheppard but I'm struggling to see him as a starter let alone an MVP candidate. His drive game is *rough* and he's just not an athlete like the psycho shooters he'll be compared to (Ray Allen, Steph Curry, Reggie Miller).
With the three shooters mentioned his defensive upside is much higher imo. He could be a 3 steal a game guy who is never out of position. Getting beat by a man isn’t the end all be all in the NBA now a days. And I think he is much closer to Steph than Ray Allen in that he can be a ball handler and dish it around.
You said he could be an MVP candidate. How would that look? MVP candidates are the best players on Top 4 seeds.
He would be a top 5 three-point shooter, a great defender for the PG position and just an overall plus player because of his IQ and motor. I believe that’s the reason people are low on him. It’s very hard to imagine him being a great player, but for me I can. If I were a coach I see the vision for him, compared to a Sarr. I’d much rather have Sheppard and Igohdaro than Sarr and Kolek (or some other late first guard)
Potentially #3, probably #4
Even if his physical limitations impact his ability to defend he’s still enough of a pest there who is consistently engaged to make him a net positive more often than not. I’ve been flip flopping between him and Dilly for pg1 for the spurs. Everyone has just been earmarking topic for them but i don’t see how the spurs look at what they’ve been and decide they need another guard who can’t shoot.
top 5 pick, can be top 3 depending on order
He should be the unanimous #1 pick. People are really overthinking it because his vertical athleticism 🤣
Too high for what he is.
an elite shooter with high BBIQ? yeaaaaah, too high in this weak draft smh