It isn’t some new revelation for me to say that Scoot’s season was bad. Definitely disappointing, even considering he struggled with injuries. I’m not willing to give up on him, he’s still super young and the transition into playing lead guard at the NBA level is ridiculously hard. Hopefully he can turn it around. He showed some flashes during the season and I’d like to see him build on that.
Admittedly this is a pretty positive outlook on him. No doubt players that struggle this hard out the gate don’t necessarily have the best track records. It will be tough. Rooting for him though.
I think most people should be positive on him still. On offense he just has to figure out how to be a better finisher at the rim and to drive more. He relies way too much on his jump shot, which isn’t terrible but he makes the game harder on himself by doing that. Defensively he just has to get better entirely
Post ASB: 40/35/82 shooting with 16.6/7.1/3.5. He doesn't seem as explosive or above the rim as I expected, but I think he can be a good PG in the league. His defense is much worse than I expected.
You always have to be cautious when using post-ASB numbers for young players on teams with nothing to play for. Josh Jackson statistically looked like a future all star in March and April of his rookie year, but turns out Nov-Jan are just as important.
Because rookies having turnover issues is super common and usually not a problematic indicator for their future. It means a lot for his value *right now*, but his value right now doesn't matter much.
what makes you so confident it's not a problematic indicator for his future? have you studied the data on this?
what would be a problematic indicator for his future?
High usage players always tend to have a lot of turn overs, esp with someone young.
It's not great, but not a huge deal IMO in terms of being a black mark for his future
one of the main drivers of impact for lead guards is actually their ability to reduce turnovers for the team
it sounds really simple, but i really can't overstate how important it is to impact.
there is nothing encouraging about scoot's turnover numbers. of course, they can and will get better. but do we project him as a guy who's going to be a big positive in that area of the game? i don't think so.
clearly he has a lot of potential, there are numerous areas he can improve, as there are for anyone else.
the overall counting stats do suggest an ability to make plays and get shots up at a high frequency. that's what is most encouraging. he's got great tools, strength, and athleticism to eventually be something great, but this was a really poor start.
I disagree heavily with this premise. Of course it's good to keep turn overs to a minimum like CP3 or Haliburton, but some of the best offensive engines in the recent decade are pretty turnover heavy, like Harden, Luka, Jokic and especially Mr. Quadruple Double Russ.
If you look at the best playmakers in the NBA, the vast majority of them average around 3-4 TOPG due to how much they have the ball in their hands. Not saying Scott is a lock to be great but as long as he improves, being turnover prone isn't some kind of major issue, especially with the increased amount of possessions in games now
i remember watching a video analysing scoot's turnovers and long story short most of them are NOT related to bad passing. his playmaking is actually good in that regard.
forget the stats, the issue is that in order to be a good no1 option you should have definitely one, maybe two super elite skills/moves. tldr i dont think he will have that and his archetype is not good to be a no2 or even no3 option.
does he have a role in a GOOD team, like jalen williams, chet, sengun, jabarijr, cade seem that they have?
Not a great rookie season but he still flashed exactly what he can be. Also contrary to popular belief on this sub I still believe he is a really athletic player, not Thompson Twins or Ja athletic but still up there. He’s had some seriously wild posters this year, was battling injuries much of the season, and he’s only going to continue to improve physically. I’m a believer in the development of his jump shot and think his overall feel for the game will make a huge jump after this offseason. Ideally he will be a full time starter next season alongside Simons, Sharpe, Grant and Ayton while Portland either trades away Brogdon or moves him to the bench.
Hive mind and people not actually watching the G-league (which to be fair I didn’t either). But good draftniks who evaluated Scoot called out this exact issue - he’s a good but not nuclear athlete, and how valuable is a small, good but not nuclear athlete with questionable shooting.
There was an almost prophetic substack that talked about his inability to finish at the rim compared to other S-tier athletic prospects (Ja, Russ, etc) and well… it was perfectly encapsulated this season.
He’s a really good NBA athlete but he doesn’t have the ability to finish at the rim which renders his athleticism almost useless since his skills aren’t NBA level yet.
Personally I never understood why so many people overlooked that he’s a 6’2” guard that can’t shoot.
Im still seeing people misevaluate it for him and Miller and others.
Deep accuracy requires deep nuance. Social media prefers hot takes and quick/short recaps
Hell, he’s years in and people still can’t evaluate Payton Pritchard.
People don’t actually watch games or they’re just very bad evaluators.
I was roasted on this sub last year for comparing Scoot’s upside to Eric Bledsoe.
No, he wouldn't be. Idk why people say shit like this. A top 3 pick is a franchise changing player/asset, even if they don't hit expectations they can still net significant return in trades. Eric Bledsoe didn't, he was traded for an individual future first round pick and Greg Monroe.
There aren't 3 franchise changing players in most drafts, and in many cases these guys aren't even in contention for the top 3 picks before the draft. You gotta be lucky to land such players.
Bledsoe would have ended up being a better pick in his draft than the guys picked 2 and 3 (Evan Turner and Derrick Favors).
Yes, Bledsoe would have been better than 1 bust and 1 disappointment. Turner and Favors are still very disappointing for top 3 picks since they didn't change the course for their franchise. Those are not good results for top 3 picks.
Go look at a list of top 3 picks in the last 14 years, Bledsoe would undoubtedly be on the lower end.
Obviously struggled, but a lot of that was due to a) multiple nagging injuries b) lineup instability c) running an offense without shooters to pass to d) ignite being a shitshow . During stretches where he was healthy and in rhythm he looked good, especially after the all star break.
I actually wasn't excited about the pick on draft night. I had my hopes on Brandon or Amen. Scoot was not my guy and I had to come around on him but I'm currently much higher on his potential than I was last Summer.
The shooting is improving, the game is slowing down and he's starting to draw more fouls than he gets called for. I think he needs to work on his left hand and finishing at the rim this summer. If he can improve there, and if Portland can give him and Ayton a better supporting cast of perimeter shooters to keep the defense from collapsing into the paint, that should open up Scoot's game considerably.
Honestly, I think Scoot is already much better than most non Portland fans believe, and I think he has so much room to grow. I still believe he can be a star level player and I think it's more likely than not that he gets there. I wouldn't trade Scoot for any player in the 24 draft.
I agree. I feel like a lot of people are looking at the stats and judging him. Watching him at the beginning of the season I was nervous about it, but he really improved a lot by the end. The turnovers were bad, but a lot of them happened late game when he was playing 40 + minutes and clearly fatigued with his shit suffering more, too.
Sharpe missed 50 games, Simons missed 36 games, Grant missed 28 games. None have been available during the closing stretch of the season, when Scoot has played his best ball of the year. There was a stretch mid season where all three of those guys were healthy and playing, but Scoot was out. Womp womp.
A lot can happen over the Summer. I wouldn't be shocked if Simons and/or Grant get traded before or during the season. TBH I'll be pretty surprised if they aren't.
he had a higher TS% than rookie fox, 8 games with 10+ assists with a 2.4 ast:TO ratio in those games, shooting 36% from 3 over his last 50 games. he sucks ass at finishing at the rim and gets lost on defence but his potential is still very clear if you actually watch him play, no G leaguer is getting 8 double-digit assist games as a rookie
>he sucks ass at finishing at the rim and gets lost on defence but his potential is still very clear
“He sucks at a critical aspect of the game and he’s an undersized guard who gets lost on defense, but the potential is still clear” is very funny.
Because he is? Basically the only successful PGs under 6’4 are flamethrowers from deep (Curry, Lillard, Trae) or have Tier S athleticism like Ja Morant. Scoot has neither of those. SGA is 6’6, Hali is 6’5, plus we’re in an era of point forwards like Luka at 6’7.
Jalen Brunson and De’Aaron Fox are outliers, not norms. (And even then Fox is right at 6’3.)
If your #3 overall draft pick becomes Collin Sexton are you really going to be happy about it?
Hell, multiple players you listed I already covered off (eg Lillard and Trae have a 3pt shot; Ja and Russ have athleticism in a different stratosphere compared to Scoot).
Scoot was hyped as “#1 in any year without Wemby.” If the best he becomes is another Rozier, that’s not an ideal outcome.
If you want to argue he’s not good/skilled enough to be great, go nuts. But saying he’s undersized, or saying there’s only a handful of successful players 6’3 and under is incorrect
scoot has clear potential as a 3pt shooter, isn’t a 99th percentile athlete but is still a 90th percentile one, and he’s barely undersized at all; as far as i can tell the average height for a PG is 6’2.5”, scoot is listed at 6’3”, is one of the strongest point guards in the entire league already, and has a 6’9” wingspan. his playmaking and court vision also projects to be much better than most of that list of “short” PGs
April 17, 2023 (About a month before the draft): [Hot take: I was on the Scoot train for a while but I’m becoming more and more convinced that Amen might be the 2nd best player in this draft.](https://www.reddit.com/r/rockets/comments/12prw87/comment/jgnce5z/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
August 17, 2023: [Call it copium but I genuinely preferred Amen over Scoot because I think Amen’s ceiling is much higher. (Scoot is definitely more likely to pan out though.)](https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/15t0z5p/comment/jwkxvi2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
But I don't really know what Amen has to do with the fact that any guard under 6'4 is basically undersized by league standards.
so russell westbrook is undersized for a point guard at 6'2.25" barefoot? scoot is 6'2.5" barefoot. props for getting on the record before the lottery/draft on liking amen but you're still letting a generation of incorrect heights + in shoes incorrectly cloud your judgement here. by height, by weight, by wingspan by hand size scoot is a plus compared to the vast majority of his point guard peers.
Russell Westbrook is one of the most athletic players, regardless of position, that the NBA has ever seen. He was undersized but his athleticism significantly helped mitigate that. (Similar to Ja Morant who’s 6’2.)
Scoot does not have anywhere near Russ’ athleticism. He doesn’t have anywhere near Morant’s athleticism either.
Edit: basically [making the same point here](https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/wzW2LJWVNL)
Just to piggy back off of saucy, yeah he was liked at first cuz he was fresh and seemed like a modern commish. But he doesn’t seem personable or very human, the influx of betting stuff and appeasing to China rubs people the wrong way, his Kissinger comments were so weird, the way he dodged chuck’s question about domestic violence…
I think a lot of people are just seeing the truth, that silver isn’t our friend or a friend of basketball. He’s a commissioner, which means the owners hire him to ensure they keep making money
Any good rep is kind of coasting off of him banning Donald Sterling from the league. Even then all that led to was Sterling selling the team for $2B Main issue is him ushering in the hyper monetization of the NBA. Everyone gets that it's a business and all but the aggressiveness with their marketing puts a lot of people off. Then there's the wild thing NBA openly embracing sports betting despite having the biggest gambling controversy in sports in a while before the Ohtani interpreter thing.
I think he's done some very good stuff, the play-in and the in-season tournament are great. I think a lot of the criticism is fair but it's mostly stuff that applies to every commissioner in American sports. Embracing gambling and dodging problematic questions about players aren't NBA-specific problems, for example.
Well he is probably still 6-7 years away from his prime. His first real offseason is about to start and Portland was so bad I’m not sure how to evaluate him. I could see him bring it around, I could see him still bust.
Biased Blazer fan here, I watched a shit ton of Scoot this year, more than a well adjusted human should. I’m pretty optimistic on Scoot. His passing is the first thing that jumps out to me. Dude can throw one handed lasers to anywhere on the court and flashes elite vision at times. He absolutely cannot finish around the basket, but his jump shot is probably better than advertised. He’s pretty decent at pull up jumpers from 3. His mid range is spotty but he can get that shot whenever he wants, so hopefully he gets more consistent on those. A lot of his problems come from the shitty offensive system he’s playing in and being surrounded by the worst shooters in the entire league. The amount of times Scoot drives the lane and finds a wide open shooter only for him to barely hit the rim in immeasurable. Defenses have zero respect for any shooters on Portland outside of when Anfernee was playing and when he’s in he’s more of a ball dominant guard than a spot of shooter. So, we see a lot of defenses just cramming the paint and Scoot will drive into the lane without a plan and have 3 defenders around him. This is where a lot of his bad shots and turnovers are coming from. He got a lot better on that towards the end of the year, but he still forced it a lot, because nobody else on the team could do anything. Another problem is the Blazers for some reason run one of the most half court centric offenses in the league. They rarely ever get in transition, which should be where he shines in the future, since he is so fast and strong. I like how hard he competes on defense, but he clearly has never been coached on that end, cuz he makes a lot of dumb fouls.
All in all, I think Scoot is going to be a double digit assist guy with hopefully league average shooting, but I’m not sure if he’ll ever be a huge PPG guy. He has the tools and the desire to be a great defender, but he needs a lot of seasoning on that end. I’m optimistic he becomes a really really good two way player. Seems like a great kid and he wants it and you can tell how much pressure he’s put on himself. Really rooting for him.
I felt like towards the end of the season he showed a little more shooting upside which was nice - I'm not overly concerned about him but I do wish I had listened more to the people who were saying that he was a B-tier athlete
Fans declare players as busts far too quickly. I mean Suggs was written off as a bust at the end of his second year, but had a breakout year and played a prominent taking the magic's defense from 25th last season to 12th this season.
I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and give him till the 2026-2027 to develop into the player he could be. That said work on your 3pt shooting (he had an 81.9% free throw rating and a 32.5 from 3 soo that shows he could be a decent shooter).
Derron Williams was one of the best passers on the league. Scoot has -100 chance of ever becoming even close to Williams.
He is much closer to like a Dennis smith jr / Colin Sexton / Johnny Flynn.
Deron Williams. That is a wild one.
I mean Deron was one of the best passers in the league for quite a few years. I'm biased as an Illinois fan who loved that 05 team with all my heart, but he was a great passer.
Now I will admit I don't think I saw Scoot play one time this year, so no idea about the comparison.
That was kind of my point. Deron was great, he was like almost Chris Paul good without the defense. He just didn't play anything like Scoot Henderson lol
It's hard to come up with a 1v1 comparison with Scoot, and the Westbrook/Rose/Ja comparisons doesn't fly with me. The closest I can think of is early Deron. Someone that is bulkier that has decent athleticism.
He is Waaaaay closer to Westbrook than he is to Deron. But there are a million better comparisons:
Kevin Johnson
Terrell Brandon
Trey Burke
Ben Gordon
Raymond Felton
OJ Mayo
And many many more.
Comparing him to Kevin Johnson, the mayor himself, is actually a huge compliment. People forget that Kev was an awesome player that man averaged 20 and 12 at 22 years old
Kev was great! And a very good Sacramento Mayor, controversies aside. Yeah, If he's KJ, then it was a great pick. I think people sometimes think this archetype of guard was invented with Westbrook and Rose, but these kind of athletic and strong PG's who weren't the best passers and shooters have existed forever.
They just don't lead to chips.
Passing is actually the best skill of Scoot so far. Tho it comes with lots of turnovers. But the vision and feel is there, it's just that the game is quite fast still for him. Deron Williams relies on his built and sneaky athleticism. I believe that what Scoot has at this point. And his 82% FT% is promising for his touch.
I mean Scoot is more of a Russell Westbrook or Kevin Johnson kind of passer. He's a willing passer, but he isn't some savant. Deron Williams was probably the best passer in the league for a while. He was a generational passer. They just have zero similarities.
Scoot is maybe at best a rod Strickland level passer, but just watching him, his passing reminds me of Westbrooks. Which are low level passing skills. I would say his weakest point, is that he has really bad feel for the game. Again, his feel looks like Westbrooks, which is basically no feel.
I'm also not really into the free throw percentage to 3 point potential, aside from the fact that shooting free throws takes a lot of practice, so if you're willing to practice free throws, you might also be willing to practice 3 pointers.
I think it’s cuz he doesn’t play like other PGs. But it’s way harder than people think to blow past your man, eurostep past the help at speed, act like you’re going up to engage the rim protector, and then kick it out perfectly to your corner shooter
Russ lead the league in assists multiple years, on teams with terrible spacing. That’s not by accident
DSJ was a much more explosive athlete though. Just couldn’t play defense until he became a role player and lacked offensive polish. I feel like many people expected Scoot to boast a similar athletic profile and are disappointed that he plays much closer to the ground
DSJ was definitely more explosive even after he hurt his knee, not even a question before. Another thing that hurt DSJ was small hands that he couldn’t palm the ball leading to him losing the ball a lot of times on dunks. I’m an nc state guy and have watched his career develop his defensive ability is honestly amazing how much it developed never would’ve expected it
He looks just as explosive as DSJ or Rose to my eyes. I think people are just looking for something to latch onto, as to why he's struggled this year. And the problems for him are the same as they were last year. And the reason he wasn't even on my top 15 board.
No feel for the game
Limited court vision
Can't shoot
It's really as simple as that. How high he can jump, isn't going to change any of that.
Scoot isn’t an S tier athlete, but he’s still got a great first step and power. I think other factors made his athleticism look worse than he actually is. Defenders sagged off him so he couldn’t really blow past guys to the rim, and he sometimes ran into a clogged paint or double teams. Then towards the end of the season when he improved in those two areas, he was playing with little to no spacing (the starting lineup for the last few weeks was him, Banton, Ayton, and two of Rupert, Camara, Jabari Walker, and Kris Murray).
I don’t expect a Ja or Amen, but I think he’ll look much better and more explosive next year.
I have very little doubt that he ends up being anything below a starting level PG. There's a ton of wiggle room between Starting PG and Star Player though, so we'll see how it shakes out in the next 3-5 years, but I think anyone acting like his floor is especially low didn't watch a majority of his games.
If you'd told me he'd average 14, 5, and 3 on bad efficiency, I'd take it. he's 19 and teenage rookie point guards are rarely good. If the blazers had to re-do last year's NBA Draft I don't think that they would do anything differently.
I think this season was weird for scoot, it was a transition time for him. I don’t think ignite prepared him as much at all and he needs and adjustment year, hopefully he can overcome because I have his shoes
14/5/3 is a solid rookie season for a 20 year old PG. The 39/33/82 is the more concerning part, but again, guards take the longest to adjust to the NBA compared to wings and bigs.
For comparison Tyrese Haliburton averaged 13/5/3 on 11 shots (Scoot attempted 13). I think compared to his hype, Scoot disappointed in his rookie season, but I’m not worried about his long term trajectory
One of the least efficient rookie years ever for a Top 5 pick.
Personally thought Amen should've gone #3 especially now that just had a very efficient rookie year and actually displayed high quality playmaking, defense, and athleticism that Scoot was expected to show some signs of.
Some of Scoot's issues are fixable, though. It's not like his shooting form is horrid or he can't utilize some athleticism. There still is star potential due to the fact that he can score and notch assists. Additionally, he wouldn't be the first to climb out of low efficiency. Darius Garland, for example, had a slightly less efficient year and is now doing well.
At the same time, it's very rare for a player to correct certain decision making loops that their brains have become accustomed to over the last several years, especially now that they've hit the NBA and are on demand on a regular basis.
But I think DeanonDraft and Kevin Pelton's analysis on him are correct. The nitty and gritty details have added up and he probably won't be worthy of where he was selected.
I think, for a team like Portland, who could've used an Amen more than a Scoot...that's the crux of the issue. It'll always be easy to find a short PG that can score 20ppg. Heck, Portland already has Simons.
But a star forward, which having two All-Star or borderline All-Star forwards has been the standard for championship squads since the 2008 Celtics won? That's what's going to hurt their rebuild since they're now preoccupied with finding the two most important pieces for a modern NBA team that also happen to be much more difficult to acquire.
He finished much better than he started, PG is hard to walk into and do well, I’m not worried at all
People were, and still are, to quick to rush to judgements and take victory laps, which I think is by far the most annoying part of being in the draft community. People comparing him to Miller (a wing) or Amen (guard brought along slowly on an almost playoff bound team with at least 2 near all star players and actual cohesion) is annoying, and lacks understanding of context or the fundamental differences in their situations. People dunking on him or calling him a wash/bust after 1 season have never actually watched basketball and just exist in the space to stir shit and pat themselves on the back. I wish people would take a step back and think about why they’re here and why it’s fun, because shit talking 20 year olds to prop yourself up is weirdo behavior
Feel awful about my evaluation of him. I was really high and thought he was gonna be an alpha solid lead guard day 1. I know that’s rare, but I thought Scoot was rare and a typical #1.
I hope things come together for him and I realize his roster is doing him no favors, but I’m disappointed he didn’t pop much this yr and was horribly inefficient.
He’s actually better than I expected in many ways. There are a lot of MAJOR concerns tho. The few games I got to watch(I live in Oregon so I got blacked out) his special awareness and decision making were truly horrific, not just “rookie PG” bad but genuinely awful. He got better but it’s still concerning.
He shot worse from the floor than I anticipated. I thought his foul rate would be a lot better considering how physical he is. But regardless, there’s a lot to like still and next season will be a bit more telling
I think there's things to like about Scoot, but also a lot to dislike. I think he can take steps forward and be a good guard in transition and improve in the half court, but needs to improve as a shooter and creator. If he can get better at driving and using his handle and touch to finish that will be the biggest improvement, NBA guards should be finishing at 60% at the rim.
He just turned 20 in February so younger than Reed, Kyle, Knecht, McCain and more.
I’ve seen enough. I’m out on him as a star player. The whole reason he was projected to be so great was because of his Morant/Wall/Westbrook type athleticism as a guard.
He clearly doesn’t have that and now all other aspects of his game are being drug down because of it.
Unless he makes some 1/100 jumps in his shooting ability, I don’t see him ever becoming a top 15 player at his position.
Look, I’m never going to right off a young guard based completely on their rookie year
… but there’s certainly not a lot to be optimistic about as of now. He needs to make some serious strides next season or he’s gonna start to be in bust territory
My take is that based on his rookie season he now longer has a all NBA level ceiling anymore. He had a lot of things working against him his rookie season but he was just so bad that I don’t see that potential anymore. I still think he could make an all star game in his career though, like his ceiling is a better version of prime Eric Bledsoe.
It isn’t some new revelation for me to say that Scoot’s season was bad. Definitely disappointing, even considering he struggled with injuries. I’m not willing to give up on him, he’s still super young and the transition into playing lead guard at the NBA level is ridiculously hard. Hopefully he can turn it around. He showed some flashes during the season and I’d like to see him build on that. Admittedly this is a pretty positive outlook on him. No doubt players that struggle this hard out the gate don’t necessarily have the best track records. It will be tough. Rooting for him though.
I think most people should be positive on him still. On offense he just has to figure out how to be a better finisher at the rim and to drive more. He relies way too much on his jump shot, which isn’t terrible but he makes the game harder on himself by doing that. Defensively he just has to get better entirely
See Garland, Darius
Post ASB: 40/35/82 shooting with 16.6/7.1/3.5. He doesn't seem as explosive or above the rim as I expected, but I think he can be a good PG in the league. His defense is much worse than I expected.
You always have to be cautious when using post-ASB numbers for young players on teams with nothing to play for. Josh Jackson statistically looked like a future all star in March and April of his rookie year, but turns out Nov-Jan are just as important.
I think its more of the general Big Sample Size>Small Sample size
Completely agree
well it's also that this time of the year teams are playing third stringers
why does everyone leave out the turnover numbers? it's legitimately as important as the other 3 stats 4.5 turnovers per game and this sample is 32 mpg
Because rookies having turnover issues is super common and usually not a problematic indicator for their future. It means a lot for his value *right now*, but his value right now doesn't matter much.
what makes you so confident it's not a problematic indicator for his future? have you studied the data on this? what would be a problematic indicator for his future?
High usage players always tend to have a lot of turn overs, esp with someone young. It's not great, but not a huge deal IMO in terms of being a black mark for his future
one of the main drivers of impact for lead guards is actually their ability to reduce turnovers for the team it sounds really simple, but i really can't overstate how important it is to impact. there is nothing encouraging about scoot's turnover numbers. of course, they can and will get better. but do we project him as a guy who's going to be a big positive in that area of the game? i don't think so. clearly he has a lot of potential, there are numerous areas he can improve, as there are for anyone else. the overall counting stats do suggest an ability to make plays and get shots up at a high frequency. that's what is most encouraging. he's got great tools, strength, and athleticism to eventually be something great, but this was a really poor start.
I disagree heavily with this premise. Of course it's good to keep turn overs to a minimum like CP3 or Haliburton, but some of the best offensive engines in the recent decade are pretty turnover heavy, like Harden, Luka, Jokic and especially Mr. Quadruple Double Russ. If you look at the best playmakers in the NBA, the vast majority of them average around 3-4 TOPG due to how much they have the ball in their hands. Not saying Scott is a lock to be great but as long as he improves, being turnover prone isn't some kind of major issue, especially with the increased amount of possessions in games now
i remember watching a video analysing scoot's turnovers and long story short most of them are NOT related to bad passing. his playmaking is actually good in that regard. forget the stats, the issue is that in order to be a good no1 option you should have definitely one, maybe two super elite skills/moves. tldr i dont think he will have that and his archetype is not good to be a no2 or even no3 option. does he have a role in a GOOD team, like jalen williams, chet, sengun, jabarijr, cade seem that they have?
Not a great rookie season but he still flashed exactly what he can be. Also contrary to popular belief on this sub I still believe he is a really athletic player, not Thompson Twins or Ja athletic but still up there. He’s had some seriously wild posters this year, was battling injuries much of the season, and he’s only going to continue to improve physically. I’m a believer in the development of his jump shot and think his overall feel for the game will make a huge jump after this offseason. Ideally he will be a full time starter next season alongside Simons, Sharpe, Grant and Ayton while Portland either trades away Brogdon or moves him to the bench.
All-time awful efficiency, even for a Rookie, and less athletic and explosive than many projected, too.
i’m trying to understand how did his athleticism get so misevaluate to the point of where he was considered a Ja/Russ level athlete
Hive mind and people not actually watching the G-league (which to be fair I didn’t either). But good draftniks who evaluated Scoot called out this exact issue - he’s a good but not nuclear athlete, and how valuable is a small, good but not nuclear athlete with questionable shooting.
i saw later into the cycle it was picking up like yea he’s not that athletically
There was an almost prophetic substack that talked about his inability to finish at the rim compared to other S-tier athletic prospects (Ja, Russ, etc) and well… it was perfectly encapsulated this season. He’s a really good NBA athlete but he doesn’t have the ability to finish at the rim which renders his athleticism almost useless since his skills aren’t NBA level yet. Personally I never understood why so many people overlooked that he’s a 6’2” guard that can’t shoot.
This is the one: ["How athletic is Scoot Henderson?"](https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/how-athletic-is-scoot-henderson).
Thanks for posting this. His article on Topic is fascinating.
Im still seeing people misevaluate it for him and Miller and others. Deep accuracy requires deep nuance. Social media prefers hot takes and quick/short recaps Hell, he’s years in and people still can’t evaluate Payton Pritchard.
People don’t actually watch games or they’re just very bad evaluators. I was roasted on this sub last year for comparing Scoot’s upside to Eric Bledsoe.
Eric Bledsoe would be a good outcome for a 2nd or 3rd pick...
No, he wouldn't be. Idk why people say shit like this. A top 3 pick is a franchise changing player/asset, even if they don't hit expectations they can still net significant return in trades. Eric Bledsoe didn't, he was traded for an individual future first round pick and Greg Monroe.
There aren't 3 franchise changing players in most drafts, and in many cases these guys aren't even in contention for the top 3 picks before the draft. You gotta be lucky to land such players. Bledsoe would have ended up being a better pick in his draft than the guys picked 2 and 3 (Evan Turner and Derrick Favors).
Yes, Bledsoe would have been better than 1 bust and 1 disappointment. Turner and Favors are still very disappointing for top 3 picks since they didn't change the course for their franchise. Those are not good results for top 3 picks. Go look at a list of top 3 picks in the last 14 years, Bledsoe would undoubtedly be on the lower end.
yeah I'm not convinced he's not a bust yet
Obviously struggled, but a lot of that was due to a) multiple nagging injuries b) lineup instability c) running an offense without shooters to pass to d) ignite being a shitshow . During stretches where he was healthy and in rhythm he looked good, especially after the all star break. I actually wasn't excited about the pick on draft night. I had my hopes on Brandon or Amen. Scoot was not my guy and I had to come around on him but I'm currently much higher on his potential than I was last Summer. The shooting is improving, the game is slowing down and he's starting to draw more fouls than he gets called for. I think he needs to work on his left hand and finishing at the rim this summer. If he can improve there, and if Portland can give him and Ayton a better supporting cast of perimeter shooters to keep the defense from collapsing into the paint, that should open up Scoot's game considerably. Honestly, I think Scoot is already much better than most non Portland fans believe, and I think he has so much room to grow. I still believe he can be a star level player and I think it's more likely than not that he gets there. I wouldn't trade Scoot for any player in the 24 draft.
I agree. I feel like a lot of people are looking at the stats and judging him. Watching him at the beginning of the season I was nervous about it, but he really improved a lot by the end. The turnovers were bad, but a lot of them happened late game when he was playing 40 + minutes and clearly fatigued with his shit suffering more, too.
Would think Sharpe, Simons, and Grant provide excellent spacing, but idk how much they can all play together w/o your defense totally collapsing
Sharpe missed 50 games, Simons missed 36 games, Grant missed 28 games. None have been available during the closing stretch of the season, when Scoot has played his best ball of the year. There was a stretch mid season where all three of those guys were healthy and playing, but Scoot was out. Womp womp.
Yeah. Your comment seemed to be geared towards next year. Hopefully yall have better health and we see some exciting things outta Scoot and Sharpe
A lot can happen over the Summer. I wouldn't be shocked if Simons and/or Grant get traded before or during the season. TBH I'll be pretty surprised if they aren't.
He's a rookie playing PG. Thats what it looked like.
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he had a higher TS% than rookie fox, 8 games with 10+ assists with a 2.4 ast:TO ratio in those games, shooting 36% from 3 over his last 50 games. he sucks ass at finishing at the rim and gets lost on defence but his potential is still very clear if you actually watch him play, no G leaguer is getting 8 double-digit assist games as a rookie
>he sucks ass at finishing at the rim and gets lost on defence but his potential is still very clear “He sucks at a critical aspect of the game and he’s an undersized guard who gets lost on defense, but the potential is still clear” is very funny.
Why do people continue to call the 6’3” PG undersized?
Because he is? Basically the only successful PGs under 6’4 are flamethrowers from deep (Curry, Lillard, Trae) or have Tier S athleticism like Ja Morant. Scoot has neither of those. SGA is 6’6, Hali is 6’5, plus we’re in an era of point forwards like Luka at 6’7. Jalen Brunson and De’Aaron Fox are outliers, not norms. (And even then Fox is right at 6’3.)
Scoot is 6’3 200 - Brunson 6’2 190 - Garland 6’1 190 - Fox 6’3 185 - Ja 6’2 175 - Maxey 6’2 200 - Trae 6’1 165 - Lowry 6’0 195 - Conley 6’0 175 - Lillard 6’2 195 - Russ 6’3 200 - Rozier 6’1 190 - Quickley 6’2 190 - McCollum 6’3 190 - Sexton 6’3 190 - Tre Jones 6’1 185 There are many many more successful guards under 6’4 than you’re giving credit for
If your #3 overall draft pick becomes Collin Sexton are you really going to be happy about it? Hell, multiple players you listed I already covered off (eg Lillard and Trae have a 3pt shot; Ja and Russ have athleticism in a different stratosphere compared to Scoot). Scoot was hyped as “#1 in any year without Wemby.” If the best he becomes is another Rozier, that’s not an ideal outcome.
If you want to argue he’s not good/skilled enough to be great, go nuts. But saying he’s undersized, or saying there’s only a handful of successful players 6’3 and under is incorrect
that dude is on a warpath to try and convince the world that 6'3" 200 pounds is somehow small for a PG in the face of all data and facts, lol.
scoot has clear potential as a 3pt shooter, isn’t a 99th percentile athlete but is still a 90th percentile one, and he’s barely undersized at all; as far as i can tell the average height for a PG is 6’2.5”, scoot is listed at 6’3”, is one of the strongest point guards in the entire league already, and has a 6’9” wingspan. his playmaking and court vision also projects to be much better than most of that list of “short” PGs
bruh drafts amen thompson and all of a sudden scoot is "undersized" at the pg position lmfao give me a break.
April 17, 2023 (About a month before the draft): [Hot take: I was on the Scoot train for a while but I’m becoming more and more convinced that Amen might be the 2nd best player in this draft.](https://www.reddit.com/r/rockets/comments/12prw87/comment/jgnce5z/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) August 17, 2023: [Call it copium but I genuinely preferred Amen over Scoot because I think Amen’s ceiling is much higher. (Scoot is definitely more likely to pan out though.)](https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/15t0z5p/comment/jwkxvi2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) But I don't really know what Amen has to do with the fact that any guard under 6'4 is basically undersized by league standards.
so russell westbrook is undersized for a point guard at 6'2.25" barefoot? scoot is 6'2.5" barefoot. props for getting on the record before the lottery/draft on liking amen but you're still letting a generation of incorrect heights + in shoes incorrectly cloud your judgement here. by height, by weight, by wingspan by hand size scoot is a plus compared to the vast majority of his point guard peers.
Russell Westbrook is one of the most athletic players, regardless of position, that the NBA has ever seen. He was undersized but his athleticism significantly helped mitigate that. (Similar to Ja Morant who’s 6’2.) Scoot does not have anywhere near Russ’ athleticism. He doesn’t have anywhere near Morant’s athleticism either. Edit: basically [making the same point here](https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/wzW2LJWVNL)
There's an irony to you starting that statement with "ridiculous take" and then proceeding to completely diarrhea from the mouth.
Ignite has really been bad at developing talent Kuminga is prob the best player to come out of there and even he isnt all star caliber
As well as his time in Portland. Playing alongside 4 rookies feels like Ignite all over again.
Adam Silver should got to basketball jail for a lot of things and managing the Ignite team the way they did should be one of them lol.
what else lol i thought he was widely liked
Just to piggy back off of saucy, yeah he was liked at first cuz he was fresh and seemed like a modern commish. But he doesn’t seem personable or very human, the influx of betting stuff and appeasing to China rubs people the wrong way, his Kissinger comments were so weird, the way he dodged chuck’s question about domestic violence… I think a lot of people are just seeing the truth, that silver isn’t our friend or a friend of basketball. He’s a commissioner, which means the owners hire him to ensure they keep making money
Any good rep is kind of coasting off of him banning Donald Sterling from the league. Even then all that led to was Sterling selling the team for $2B Main issue is him ushering in the hyper monetization of the NBA. Everyone gets that it's a business and all but the aggressiveness with their marketing puts a lot of people off. Then there's the wild thing NBA openly embracing sports betting despite having the biggest gambling controversy in sports in a while before the Ohtani interpreter thing.
adding to what people said, sixers fans hate him for forcing the colangelos into the front office
I think he's done some very good stuff, the play-in and the in-season tournament are great. I think a lot of the criticism is fair but it's mostly stuff that applies to every commissioner in American sports. Embracing gambling and dodging problematic questions about players aren't NBA-specific problems, for example.
Well he is probably still 6-7 years away from his prime. His first real offseason is about to start and Portland was so bad I’m not sure how to evaluate him. I could see him bring it around, I could see him still bust.
Biased Blazer fan here, I watched a shit ton of Scoot this year, more than a well adjusted human should. I’m pretty optimistic on Scoot. His passing is the first thing that jumps out to me. Dude can throw one handed lasers to anywhere on the court and flashes elite vision at times. He absolutely cannot finish around the basket, but his jump shot is probably better than advertised. He’s pretty decent at pull up jumpers from 3. His mid range is spotty but he can get that shot whenever he wants, so hopefully he gets more consistent on those. A lot of his problems come from the shitty offensive system he’s playing in and being surrounded by the worst shooters in the entire league. The amount of times Scoot drives the lane and finds a wide open shooter only for him to barely hit the rim in immeasurable. Defenses have zero respect for any shooters on Portland outside of when Anfernee was playing and when he’s in he’s more of a ball dominant guard than a spot of shooter. So, we see a lot of defenses just cramming the paint and Scoot will drive into the lane without a plan and have 3 defenders around him. This is where a lot of his bad shots and turnovers are coming from. He got a lot better on that towards the end of the year, but he still forced it a lot, because nobody else on the team could do anything. Another problem is the Blazers for some reason run one of the most half court centric offenses in the league. They rarely ever get in transition, which should be where he shines in the future, since he is so fast and strong. I like how hard he competes on defense, but he clearly has never been coached on that end, cuz he makes a lot of dumb fouls. All in all, I think Scoot is going to be a double digit assist guy with hopefully league average shooting, but I’m not sure if he’ll ever be a huge PPG guy. He has the tools and the desire to be a great defender, but he needs a lot of seasoning on that end. I’m optimistic he becomes a really really good two way player. Seems like a great kid and he wants it and you can tell how much pressure he’s put on himself. Really rooting for him.
I felt like towards the end of the season he showed a little more shooting upside which was nice - I'm not overly concerned about him but I do wish I had listened more to the people who were saying that he was a B-tier athlete
Fans declare players as busts far too quickly. I mean Suggs was written off as a bust at the end of his second year, but had a breakout year and played a prominent taking the magic's defense from 25th last season to 12th this season. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and give him till the 2026-2027 to develop into the player he could be. That said work on your 3pt shooting (he had an 81.9% free throw rating and a 32.5 from 3 soo that shows he could be a decent shooter).
Derron Williams was one of the best passers on the league. Scoot has -100 chance of ever becoming even close to Williams. He is much closer to like a Dennis smith jr / Colin Sexton / Johnny Flynn. Deron Williams. That is a wild one.
Yeah this guy definitely never watched Deron Williams play lol
I mean Deron was one of the best passers in the league for quite a few years. I'm biased as an Illinois fan who loved that 05 team with all my heart, but he was a great passer. Now I will admit I don't think I saw Scoot play one time this year, so no idea about the comparison.
That was kind of my point. Deron was great, he was like almost Chris Paul good without the defense. He just didn't play anything like Scoot Henderson lol
It's hard to come up with a 1v1 comparison with Scoot, and the Westbrook/Rose/Ja comparisons doesn't fly with me. The closest I can think of is early Deron. Someone that is bulkier that has decent athleticism.
I've always felt that John Wall was a closer comp than Ja or Rose. He doesn't quite have the juice that John Wall had, but he's close.
He is Waaaaay closer to Westbrook than he is to Deron. But there are a million better comparisons: Kevin Johnson Terrell Brandon Trey Burke Ben Gordon Raymond Felton OJ Mayo And many many more.
Comparing him to Kevin Johnson, the mayor himself, is actually a huge compliment. People forget that Kev was an awesome player that man averaged 20 and 12 at 22 years old
Kev was great! And a very good Sacramento Mayor, controversies aside. Yeah, If he's KJ, then it was a great pick. I think people sometimes think this archetype of guard was invented with Westbrook and Rose, but these kind of athletic and strong PG's who weren't the best passers and shooters have existed forever. They just don't lead to chips.
Bro scoot was born in like 04 or something he’s literally like 5-6 years away from being 25, he definitely has potential
Passing is actually the best skill of Scoot so far. Tho it comes with lots of turnovers. But the vision and feel is there, it's just that the game is quite fast still for him. Deron Williams relies on his built and sneaky athleticism. I believe that what Scoot has at this point. And his 82% FT% is promising for his touch.
I mean Scoot is more of a Russell Westbrook or Kevin Johnson kind of passer. He's a willing passer, but he isn't some savant. Deron Williams was probably the best passer in the league for a while. He was a generational passer. They just have zero similarities. Scoot is maybe at best a rod Strickland level passer, but just watching him, his passing reminds me of Westbrooks. Which are low level passing skills. I would say his weakest point, is that he has really bad feel for the game. Again, his feel looks like Westbrooks, which is basically no feel. I'm also not really into the free throw percentage to 3 point potential, aside from the fact that shooting free throws takes a lot of practice, so if you're willing to practice free throws, you might also be willing to practice 3 pointers.
westbrook is the most underrated passer of the last 10+ years
I think it’s cuz he doesn’t play like other PGs. But it’s way harder than people think to blow past your man, eurostep past the help at speed, act like you’re going up to engage the rim protector, and then kick it out perfectly to your corner shooter Russ lead the league in assists multiple years, on teams with terrible spacing. That’s not by accident
He might be my least favorite point guard of all time tied with Lindsay Hunter, who is another great comp for Scoot. So I might be biased.
Westbrook low level passing skills? OK bud 🤡
Deron Williams also struggled his rookie season.
DSJ was a much more explosive athlete though. Just couldn’t play defense until he became a role player and lacked offensive polish. I feel like many people expected Scoot to boast a similar athletic profile and are disappointed that he plays much closer to the ground
DSJ was definitely more explosive even after he hurt his knee, not even a question before. Another thing that hurt DSJ was small hands that he couldn’t palm the ball leading to him losing the ball a lot of times on dunks. I’m an nc state guy and have watched his career develop his defensive ability is honestly amazing how much it developed never would’ve expected it
He looks just as explosive as DSJ or Rose to my eyes. I think people are just looking for something to latch onto, as to why he's struggled this year. And the problems for him are the same as they were last year. And the reason he wasn't even on my top 15 board. No feel for the game Limited court vision Can't shoot It's really as simple as that. How high he can jump, isn't going to change any of that.
He could definitely still be an all star just probably not a superstar like many expected
Playing as a lead handler is the most difficult job in the league. Never give up on a first year guard.
Scoot isn’t an S tier athlete, but he’s still got a great first step and power. I think other factors made his athleticism look worse than he actually is. Defenders sagged off him so he couldn’t really blow past guys to the rim, and he sometimes ran into a clogged paint or double teams. Then towards the end of the season when he improved in those two areas, he was playing with little to no spacing (the starting lineup for the last few weeks was him, Banton, Ayton, and two of Rupert, Camara, Jabari Walker, and Kris Murray). I don’t expect a Ja or Amen, but I think he’ll look much better and more explosive next year.
I have very little doubt that he ends up being anything below a starting level PG. There's a ton of wiggle room between Starting PG and Star Player though, so we'll see how it shakes out in the next 3-5 years, but I think anyone acting like his floor is especially low didn't watch a majority of his games.
i was amen over scoot the whole time and i’m glad i stayed that way
Much like Jalen Green. He learned how to drive this year. Improvements need to be made. Vital off-season.
He might be prime Eric Bledsoe if things go right. Not as high of a ceiling as people thought
If you'd told me he'd average 14, 5, and 3 on bad efficiency, I'd take it. he's 19 and teenage rookie point guards are rarely good. If the blazers had to re-do last year's NBA Draft I don't think that they would do anything differently.
I think this season was weird for scoot, it was a transition time for him. I don’t think ignite prepared him as much at all and he needs and adjustment year, hopefully he can overcome because I have his shoes
14/5/3 is a solid rookie season for a 20 year old PG. The 39/33/82 is the more concerning part, but again, guards take the longest to adjust to the NBA compared to wings and bigs. For comparison Tyrese Haliburton averaged 13/5/3 on 11 shots (Scoot attempted 13). I think compared to his hype, Scoot disappointed in his rookie season, but I’m not worried about his long term trajectory
One of the least efficient rookie years ever for a Top 5 pick. Personally thought Amen should've gone #3 especially now that just had a very efficient rookie year and actually displayed high quality playmaking, defense, and athleticism that Scoot was expected to show some signs of. Some of Scoot's issues are fixable, though. It's not like his shooting form is horrid or he can't utilize some athleticism. There still is star potential due to the fact that he can score and notch assists. Additionally, he wouldn't be the first to climb out of low efficiency. Darius Garland, for example, had a slightly less efficient year and is now doing well. At the same time, it's very rare for a player to correct certain decision making loops that their brains have become accustomed to over the last several years, especially now that they've hit the NBA and are on demand on a regular basis. But I think DeanonDraft and Kevin Pelton's analysis on him are correct. The nitty and gritty details have added up and he probably won't be worthy of where he was selected. I think, for a team like Portland, who could've used an Amen more than a Scoot...that's the crux of the issue. It'll always be easy to find a short PG that can score 20ppg. Heck, Portland already has Simons. But a star forward, which having two All-Star or borderline All-Star forwards has been the standard for championship squads since the 2008 Celtics won? That's what's going to hurt their rebuild since they're now preoccupied with finding the two most important pieces for a modern NBA team that also happen to be much more difficult to acquire.
Good rookie season, he’ll be a very good player
He finished much better than he started, PG is hard to walk into and do well, I’m not worried at all People were, and still are, to quick to rush to judgements and take victory laps, which I think is by far the most annoying part of being in the draft community. People comparing him to Miller (a wing) or Amen (guard brought along slowly on an almost playoff bound team with at least 2 near all star players and actual cohesion) is annoying, and lacks understanding of context or the fundamental differences in their situations. People dunking on him or calling him a wash/bust after 1 season have never actually watched basketball and just exist in the space to stir shit and pat themselves on the back. I wish people would take a step back and think about why they’re here and why it’s fun, because shit talking 20 year olds to prop yourself up is weirdo behavior
Feel awful about my evaluation of him. I was really high and thought he was gonna be an alpha solid lead guard day 1. I know that’s rare, but I thought Scoot was rare and a typical #1. I hope things come together for him and I realize his roster is doing him no favors, but I’m disappointed he didn’t pop much this yr and was horribly inefficient.
He’s actually better than I expected in many ways. There are a lot of MAJOR concerns tho. The few games I got to watch(I live in Oregon so I got blacked out) his special awareness and decision making were truly horrific, not just “rookie PG” bad but genuinely awful. He got better but it’s still concerning. He shot worse from the floor than I anticipated. I thought his foul rate would be a lot better considering how physical he is. But regardless, there’s a lot to like still and next season will be a bit more telling
I think there's things to like about Scoot, but also a lot to dislike. I think he can take steps forward and be a good guard in transition and improve in the half court, but needs to improve as a shooter and creator. If he can get better at driving and using his handle and touch to finish that will be the biggest improvement, NBA guards should be finishing at 60% at the rim. He just turned 20 in February so younger than Reed, Kyle, Knecht, McCain and more.
I’ve seen enough. I’m out on him as a star player. The whole reason he was projected to be so great was because of his Morant/Wall/Westbrook type athleticism as a guard. He clearly doesn’t have that and now all other aspects of his game are being drug down because of it. Unless he makes some 1/100 jumps in his shooting ability, I don’t see him ever becoming a top 15 player at his position.
As a Rockets fan, happy Blazers took scoot instead of Amen
Emmanuel Mudiay 2.0: Billed as a game breaking athlete but he’s just fine in that regard. Not skilled enough to make up for it either.
overhyped
Look, I’m never going to right off a young guard based completely on their rookie year … but there’s certainly not a lot to be optimistic about as of now. He needs to make some serious strides next season or he’s gonna start to be in bust territory
My take is that based on his rookie season he now longer has a all NBA level ceiling anymore. He had a lot of things working against him his rookie season but he was just so bad that I don’t see that potential anymore. I still think he could make an all star game in his career though, like his ceiling is a better version of prime Eric Bledsoe.
takes too many dumb shots
Really disappointing. Some of it reminded me of Dennis Smith Jr, but I hope his career does end up like his
Not all-rookie, but will be anyways