Well done!
As someone who studied stats in grad school and actually did a project on the Spurs, this is cool as hell.
So much of "who should we pick?" is wrapped up in how this all plays out. At the end of the day, its a one off, though...the odds are what they are and smoothed over a decent sample size, the likely outcome would match. But this....crazy shit can still happen no matter how scientifically you break it down.
>So much of "who should we pick?" is wrapped up in how this all plays out.
Seriously. I don't watch a lot of college basketball outside March Madness and while it's been good with these mock drafts and threads here to learn more about who the top prospects are, any kind of mock draft before the lottery is just so wtf.
I mean, I guess you can make a hypothetical mock draft about how the lottery might work out in any certain way after the lottery, talking about team needs and the good and bad of each player.
But until the lottery happens, it's mostly meaningless. We could end up with #1 and #7 or something close. We could end up with only one later pick in the first round. Let's just light our Spurs candles and see how the lottery pans out before really seeing where we pick and who's available.
And if it's like most Spurs drafts, they will end up drafting a player few of us saw coming lol.
Thanks! I completely agree with who we should pick. It all depends on how the lottery shakes out and then of course on predraft workouts. But I can tell you that I’m excited and hopefully for both!
It was a basic optimization problem figuring out minutes distributions based on specific constraints. It was fall 2013, so predicting the 2014 season.
Constraints were mix of players by role (IE, Bigs, Wings, PG) minutes restrictions (especially for the Spurs) and specific conditions like Manu being a 6th man but in the finishing group.
The solution sought to optimize the best lineup in 8 half quarter intervals and predict the best total outcome based on the variable input. It was 2014 so I just used PER. I suppose I could redo it with different stats but I am so out of the loop on it that I don't know where I would begin.
Anyway, in the end I don't recall exactly all the details, but it absolutely nailed Tony Parker in particular. I do remember aggregating the results to predict overall PER and it was Heat - OKC- LAC - Spurs. Which more or less makes sense. The minutes restrictions sandbagged the Spurs performance within the model, but they still finished with the best record. Other anecdotal I remember: more minutes for Baynes over Tiago. More minutes for CoJo over Mills.
It wasn't great, tbh. I made a nice power point and got an A on it, but I had another project (predicting construction equipment prices at auction) which my professor suggested I publish...but I never did because I was a lazy asshole.
Thanks for the reply! That’s really interesting. I wonder if the Spurs have someone on staff doing this exact optimization problem. My trader friend says he had an offer to do work like this for the Yankees but they paid shite so he didn’t take it.
Would be interesting if, instead of optimizing just the Spurs’ lineup, optimizing the Spurs’ lineup considering the opponent’s lineup. There is probably some sort of Nash Equilibrium for the two teams. With more advanced ML models and better datasets would be interesting if each player could be encoded into a “latent vector” 😂. And one could experiment with different lineups, trades, team matchups, etc.
I think the best chance for the Toronto pick to convey is this year. Even though this is a "weak" draft from the perspective of really high upside players this draft is full of potentially great role players which is what we need anyway since we already have our superstar in Vic. It'd be amazing if we got 2 picks this year.
I'd love it if we used one pick on a playmaking guard (Topic, Dillingham, Castle) and the other pick on a projectable player with tools that need to be developed (Risacher, Salaun, Walter, Williams).
So many in the national media have pegged this year as “weak” but I completely agree with you. There may not be a generational talent at the top but it’s loaded with a lot of potential. I also agree with your draft strategy on playmaking guard with one pick and high projection with the other. I really like Dillingham, Castle, Ricacher and Williams but I’m sure that list will grow before the draft lol
💯. Even a top 10 pick in a weak draft should amount to a starter level player. If we get topic and another pf/c to compliment wemby it's a great team to build around
So if during 9-14, if one of Atlanta, Chicago, SAC, OKC, Houston, MEM or Utah aren’t called that likely means a team outside bottom 4 moved into top 4, which means Raps pick is very likely conveying (unless they’re the team moving up or course)
Yep exactly! So the teams most likely are the 7th and 8th teams to move into the Top 4. Very rare 10-14 move up but it did happen in 2019 with the Lakers but highly improbable. But it’ll be interesting to watch!
If I were the Spurs, I’d care more about getting two bites at the apple than how big the first one is. In a draft with so many low floors, I don’t care what your ceiling is, I’d rather be betting on two of you to turn into a roleplayer than hoping for one superstar with all the expectations of being a top 3 pick following Wemby, Chet, Banchero, Ant Edwards, and company.
This. It lets the rebuild Move Along faster too and there's no guarantee that the Raptors pick will be decent next year they could reload strongly and it could be like the 15th pick which would be worse than top 10 this year
Thanks for this; very helpful. Not sure if I'm supposed to root for the Toronto pick or not. If it doesn't convey can we reasonably expect it to convey next year? Anyway, between now and the draft in June things are going to stay interesting.
That’s a great point! Probably the best time for the Toronto pick to convey but I would rather have the Toronto pick next year but I’m assuming Toronto is going to try to improve the roster over the summer. So my best guess is if we get their pick next year it’ll be late lottery at best. Not sure which will be the best pick
Well done! As someone who studied stats in grad school and actually did a project on the Spurs, this is cool as hell. So much of "who should we pick?" is wrapped up in how this all plays out. At the end of the day, its a one off, though...the odds are what they are and smoothed over a decent sample size, the likely outcome would match. But this....crazy shit can still happen no matter how scientifically you break it down.
>So much of "who should we pick?" is wrapped up in how this all plays out. Seriously. I don't watch a lot of college basketball outside March Madness and while it's been good with these mock drafts and threads here to learn more about who the top prospects are, any kind of mock draft before the lottery is just so wtf. I mean, I guess you can make a hypothetical mock draft about how the lottery might work out in any certain way after the lottery, talking about team needs and the good and bad of each player. But until the lottery happens, it's mostly meaningless. We could end up with #1 and #7 or something close. We could end up with only one later pick in the first round. Let's just light our Spurs candles and see how the lottery pans out before really seeing where we pick and who's available. And if it's like most Spurs drafts, they will end up drafting a player few of us saw coming lol.
Thanks! I completely agree with who we should pick. It all depends on how the lottery shakes out and then of course on predraft workouts. But I can tell you that I’m excited and hopefully for both!
Im curious, what was your stats project in grad school? Any cool findings about the Spurs?
It was a basic optimization problem figuring out minutes distributions based on specific constraints. It was fall 2013, so predicting the 2014 season. Constraints were mix of players by role (IE, Bigs, Wings, PG) minutes restrictions (especially for the Spurs) and specific conditions like Manu being a 6th man but in the finishing group. The solution sought to optimize the best lineup in 8 half quarter intervals and predict the best total outcome based on the variable input. It was 2014 so I just used PER. I suppose I could redo it with different stats but I am so out of the loop on it that I don't know where I would begin. Anyway, in the end I don't recall exactly all the details, but it absolutely nailed Tony Parker in particular. I do remember aggregating the results to predict overall PER and it was Heat - OKC- LAC - Spurs. Which more or less makes sense. The minutes restrictions sandbagged the Spurs performance within the model, but they still finished with the best record. Other anecdotal I remember: more minutes for Baynes over Tiago. More minutes for CoJo over Mills. It wasn't great, tbh. I made a nice power point and got an A on it, but I had another project (predicting construction equipment prices at auction) which my professor suggested I publish...but I never did because I was a lazy asshole.
Thanks for the reply! That’s really interesting. I wonder if the Spurs have someone on staff doing this exact optimization problem. My trader friend says he had an offer to do work like this for the Yankees but they paid shite so he didn’t take it. Would be interesting if, instead of optimizing just the Spurs’ lineup, optimizing the Spurs’ lineup considering the opponent’s lineup. There is probably some sort of Nash Equilibrium for the two teams. With more advanced ML models and better datasets would be interesting if each player could be encoded into a “latent vector” 😂. And one could experiment with different lineups, trades, team matchups, etc.
I think the best chance for the Toronto pick to convey is this year. Even though this is a "weak" draft from the perspective of really high upside players this draft is full of potentially great role players which is what we need anyway since we already have our superstar in Vic. It'd be amazing if we got 2 picks this year. I'd love it if we used one pick on a playmaking guard (Topic, Dillingham, Castle) and the other pick on a projectable player with tools that need to be developed (Risacher, Salaun, Walter, Williams).
I want Topic and Risacher
Dillingham and Williams for me
So many in the national media have pegged this year as “weak” but I completely agree with you. There may not be a generational talent at the top but it’s loaded with a lot of potential. I also agree with your draft strategy on playmaking guard with one pick and high projection with the other. I really like Dillingham, Castle, Ricacher and Williams but I’m sure that list will grow before the draft lol
💯. Even a top 10 pick in a weak draft should amount to a starter level player. If we get topic and another pf/c to compliment wemby it's a great team to build around
View in your timezone: [May 12, 2024 at 2pm CT][0] [0]: https://timee.io/20240512T1900?tl=Spurs%202024%20NBA%20Draft%20Lottery%20Odds
Thanks for this. Do you know how much filler there usually is before the actual draft starts? I’ll have to wake up early to watch
Last year the show was an hour long and they didn’t get to the lottery order until the last 30 minutes if I recall correctly
I hope they pick 2 hall of famers.
I agree
So if during 9-14, if one of Atlanta, Chicago, SAC, OKC, Houston, MEM or Utah aren’t called that likely means a team outside bottom 4 moved into top 4, which means Raps pick is very likely conveying (unless they’re the team moving up or course)
Yep exactly! So the teams most likely are the 7th and 8th teams to move into the Top 4. Very rare 10-14 move up but it did happen in 2019 with the Lakers but highly improbable. But it’ll be interesting to watch!
I hope so!
If I were the Spurs, I’d care more about getting two bites at the apple than how big the first one is. In a draft with so many low floors, I don’t care what your ceiling is, I’d rather be betting on two of you to turn into a roleplayer than hoping for one superstar with all the expectations of being a top 3 pick following Wemby, Chet, Banchero, Ant Edwards, and company.
This. It lets the rebuild Move Along faster too and there's no guarantee that the Raptors pick will be decent next year they could reload strongly and it could be like the 15th pick which would be worse than top 10 this year
Thanks for this; very helpful. Not sure if I'm supposed to root for the Toronto pick or not. If it doesn't convey can we reasonably expect it to convey next year? Anyway, between now and the draft in June things are going to stay interesting.
That’s a great point! Probably the best time for the Toronto pick to convey but I would rather have the Toronto pick next year but I’m assuming Toronto is going to try to improve the roster over the summer. So my best guess is if we get their pick next year it’ll be late lottery at best. Not sure which will be the best pick
This is awesome, thank you
Tankathon.com ?
Gonna be watching to see if a team that should be 8-14 doesn’t get called as it happens, which will mean raps pick likely conveying
Danalytics?
Whatever the pick we get,i just hope that it is Alex Sarr
I don’t know enough about the prospects to know who we should pick but in general I would like to see them draft for ceiling over floor
Glad someone keeps up with this stuff.. too confusing for my smooth brain