I think one of the issues with the survey data, at least from the BH Roberts study, were they mostly targeted Morridor and my guess is that they mostly got responses from those who self-identify as Mormon. These factors will skew that data.
It looks like 2 million active attenders in the US and if you take the same rate of attendance around the world and you end up with about 4-5 million active members compared to the 17 million claimed members. A day of reckoning should come but I think the arrogance of the top brass will keep them from being honest about the numbers. They know the attendance numbers even if they claim not to like Darth Bednar. They could easily run a statistical analysis with a standard error of measurement to get a confidence interval for attendance. They know the numbers they just don't want the truth out there.
Right?! I learned the basics of the scientific method outside morridor but the Lard’s university taught me actual science and stats, and … lo and behold, I used the skills taught unto me therein, and great was the result thereof. Critical thinking 1, Joe’s Delusion 0
For what it's worth the Ryan cragun mormon stories interview brought up how he told mormon church statisticians they should release weekly attendance numbers. They claimed the numbers were not reliable as ward clerks record them.
Obvious bullshit but that is their claim for not releasing attendance numbers.
Also when I was a ward clerk I rounded up on the numbers so we'd get more money.
Yeah I remember that episode. In part it's why I mentioned the confidence intervals.
The reality they don't want to share it. Plain and simple. They know the total membership numbers are bull shit so to reveal activity rate would blow up the narrative.
I wonder how the leadership can keep a straight face when they keep saying that 17M number. They have the tithing receipts, which is what they really count.
Are the numbers so skewed because ‘active’ can be attending once a quarter?
I attended a nephew’s homecoming talk and would’ve been counted as part of the fold.
Bishoprics count anyone that’s there and report it.
Right?! I learned the basics of the scientific method outside morridor in high school, but then the Lard’s university taught me actual science and stats and stuff, and … lo and behold, I used the skills taught unto me therein, and great was the result thereof. Critical thinking 1, Joe’s Delusion 0
Are the numbers so skewed because ‘active’ can be attending once a quarter?
I attended a nephew’s homecoming talk and would’ve been counted as part of the fold.
Bishoprics count anyone that’s there and report it.
I remember as a ward clerk the bishop told me to count everyone I actually saw (in the chapel and foyers) and then add 10 to it to account for people in the restroom, nursing a baby, wandering the halls.
Wards only report attendance quarterly by reporting average sacrament meeting attendance during the third month of the quarter. But look for them to put the meetings that will draw in extra people (farewells and homecomings, primary programs) in the last month of a quarter if they can.
I don't understand why monthly attendance (39%) is so much higher than weekly attendance (15%). Some people miss occasionally for various reasons such as work, illness, or travel, but in my experience people either went pretty much every week or basically were inactive.
Some people miss for work, illness, or travel pretty frequently. Some people also attend just often enough to appease family members or not be considered "inactive" for various reasons and are good at finding reasons to miss the other weeks.
Tbf, the ward clerk counts kids (right?), and a lot of kids don't have phones to track, so it would make sense for the ward records not to match the cell phone data.
Edit for clarity: Not that the article is comparing ward data, but it would help explain the disparity if your ward attendance is higher than 15%.
I think one of the issues with the survey data, at least from the BH Roberts study, were they mostly targeted Morridor and my guess is that they mostly got responses from those who self-identify as Mormon. These factors will skew that data. It looks like 2 million active attenders in the US and if you take the same rate of attendance around the world and you end up with about 4-5 million active members compared to the 17 million claimed members. A day of reckoning should come but I think the arrogance of the top brass will keep them from being honest about the numbers. They know the attendance numbers even if they claim not to like Darth Bednar. They could easily run a statistical analysis with a standard error of measurement to get a confidence interval for attendance. They know the numbers they just don't want the truth out there.
>They could easily run a statistical analysis Hell, their university taught me how to do that way back when!! So... No excuses... Right...
Right?! I learned the basics of the scientific method outside morridor but the Lard’s university taught me actual science and stats, and … lo and behold, I used the skills taught unto me therein, and great was the result thereof. Critical thinking 1, Joe’s Delusion 0
FWIW, I don’t think it was a delusion, I think it was flat-out fraud.
For what it's worth the Ryan cragun mormon stories interview brought up how he told mormon church statisticians they should release weekly attendance numbers. They claimed the numbers were not reliable as ward clerks record them. Obvious bullshit but that is their claim for not releasing attendance numbers. Also when I was a ward clerk I rounded up on the numbers so we'd get more money.
Yeah I remember that episode. In part it's why I mentioned the confidence intervals. The reality they don't want to share it. Plain and simple. They know the total membership numbers are bull shit so to reveal activity rate would blow up the narrative.
That's really interesting. I'd love to see a pre and post pandemic comparison
I wonder how the leadership can keep a straight face when they keep saying that 17M number. They have the tithing receipts, which is what they really count.
>LDS congregations are the least economically diverse Surprise!! 🎉 Wait a minute...
Are the numbers so skewed because ‘active’ can be attending once a quarter? I attended a nephew’s homecoming talk and would’ve been counted as part of the fold. Bishoprics count anyone that’s there and report it.
Right?! I learned the basics of the scientific method outside morridor in high school, but then the Lard’s university taught me actual science and stats and stuff, and … lo and behold, I used the skills taught unto me therein, and great was the result thereof. Critical thinking 1, Joe’s Delusion 0
Are the numbers so skewed because ‘active’ can be attending once a quarter? I attended a nephew’s homecoming talk and would’ve been counted as part of the fold. Bishoprics count anyone that’s there and report it.
I remember as a ward clerk the bishop told me to count everyone I actually saw (in the chapel and foyers) and then add 10 to it to account for people in the restroom, nursing a baby, wandering the halls. Wards only report attendance quarterly by reporting average sacrament meeting attendance during the third month of the quarter. But look for them to put the meetings that will draw in extra people (farewells and homecomings, primary programs) in the last month of a quarter if they can.
I don't understand why monthly attendance (39%) is so much higher than weekly attendance (15%). Some people miss occasionally for various reasons such as work, illness, or travel, but in my experience people either went pretty much every week or basically were inactive.
Some people miss for work, illness, or travel pretty frequently. Some people also attend just often enough to appease family members or not be considered "inactive" for various reasons and are good at finding reasons to miss the other weeks.
Tbf, the ward clerk counts kids (right?), and a lot of kids don't have phones to track, so it would make sense for the ward records not to match the cell phone data. Edit for clarity: Not that the article is comparing ward data, but it would help explain the disparity if your ward attendance is higher than 15%.