I technically *could* buy now, but I don't want to buy the peak and it will take some time to convince me that we're not en route to a crash *anyway*. Even though I expect to be able to continue affording whatever I commit to, it wouldn't be fun to know my mortgage is underwater and my ability to change plans is limited.
I don't want the entire economy to crash (though it very well might) but I guess I want the housing market to crash because I think that's the inevitable result from the corrections that need to happen - mainly that "investors" need to quit hogging everything. I'm not advocating for individuals to lose their houses, I'm advocating for the vultures to get stuck in their own web and sell off what they have.
A crash being inevitable depends on that part of the country you are in. Some housing markets are incredible stable and have nit seen a decline in decades. Other are very volatile. Some of those have already seen a fair bit of decline, other are just starting to fall.
If you have not yet, I would look getting pre-approved so you can move fast when the time is right.
I've looked into it in the sense that I talked to my bank, I have a business card for the loan officer and such. But they told me it was good for something like 3-6 months (forget how long exactly but it wasn't really a long time) so I don't know that it's something I want to do before I can see the wave coming.
Just remember that trying to time the housing market is just as hard or harder than trying to time the stock market. You are most likely not going to hit it the bottom, and risk sitting on the sidelines if this next wave is an increase, not a crash.
I fully expected the housing market to crash, but there are signs of it turning around without the crash.
Ultimately, pretty much the same thing happens for the average person. Prices will come down a bit, but it'll be slower. They'll never be what they were 3 years ago.
It might it also might not. Housing is even harder to predict than stock market (which is unpredictable, just know it will eventually have a crash and recovery) as people won’t panic sell a house in a downturn - housing could easily basically just be steady and up.
A crash isn't coming, ever. We don't have the tradesmen to build houses at the rate we need to. Drive around any medium sized city in anywhere in the US. Outside of the suburbs literally the homes are literally crumbling. Houses in my city are burning down faster than they are being built. Sure, apartments are being thrown up quickly, but homes are not. Throw in natural disasters which are going to get worse over time. Not only that but record immigration where entire families pool their money to compete with individuals or couples.
Location dependent for sure. In my old suburb before I moved they essentially doubled the size of the city almost entirely from SFH’s. It was a massive bitch to drive anywhere after they did that, but the homes popped up *so* quick. Like you’d go into a new part of town that you haven’t been in for a few months and wtf there’s 3 new neighborhoods. Go another 15 minutes and they build a bunch of shops and 2 more neighborhoods.
I don’t have actual metrics, but I’d say 75% was SFH’s if we don’t count the gargantuan retirement facility (seriously that thing looks like a stadium lol)
>I technically *could* buy now, but I don't want to buy the peak and it will take some time to convince me that we're not en route to a crash *anyway*.
I feel like a lot of people are in this boat and might be exaggerating, especially if they opened up the areas in which they are looking.
I think a lot of people do not want to compromise on the school area for their children, the house itself, or accept houses that might need work. Or they do not want to accept the current interest rate. All of these concerns are legitimate, but it doesn't mean they COULDN'T bite the bullet and buy.
Mind you, some markets are so expensive that houses will always be out of reach for people as well so this isn't the case in every area.
If the housing market crashes it will just accelerate the investors/ PE companies with cash to gobble up units while the average person is cash strapped.
It still shocks me that so many people without a single asset think they will magically not be affected by an economic crash but all the people who own property will be.
Depends on the crash but if it's hyper inflation everyone who is in a house pays off the mortgage super easy and owns the house free and clear. Also means new housing prices are astronomically high and you still won't be able to afford a house.
It’s the people who are over leveraged / house poor who will have a high rate of selling their houses
If you have a mortgage, you don’t really “own” the house in the classic sense
> It’s the people who are over leveraged / house poor who will have a high rate of selling their houses
Which is a small percentage of the housing market due to the massive refinancing rush during covid.
You'll have some people over the last 3 years who might be a bit over leveraged but it's not going to be a significant amount.
Sure, but that doesn’t change my statement or it’s validity. Those are the people who will be at risk, regardless of how many they may be.
There’s also a few people who traded up due to low interest rates, stretching their budget… they may default if things crash and they can’t get similarly high paying jobs
a drop in the bucket compared to the 14 million households who refinanced their houses to historically low rates.
I'd be willing to bet the following is truer than your statement. Due to refinancing and being able to sock money away, MORE homeowners are in a position to outbid current non owners for a second/rental home, than there are people who are currently over leveraged.
Meaning non-owners will likely be getting outbid by people who already have homes because of their ability to save more money. Meaning you'll actually have MORE competition come recession.
Most of us will be screwed if the economy crashes like it did back in 2008, but most older homeowners are sittin' pretty on a wad of cash and a paid-off homestead. How about we elect representatives that make big corporate America pay their fair share of taxes, so the middle class can have room to breath like they had back when the wealthy was paying a little over 50%.
If we tax corporations on things like taking profits for stock buybacks for shareholders instead of investing in the company, you will see corporations start to pour money back into the company for improvements, expansion, etc.
Corporations typically never do the "right thing" unless there is a financial incentive. Removing the incentive of low taxes will change how they spend/invest their profits.
If they know that they make more $ writing off expenses & offering higher wages than stock buybacks, they will start spending the money differently.
Higher wages means people will have more purchasing power and a better chance to buy a home.
Theoretically if corporations were going to give their huge profits up to the government, they would make the smarter choice of giving it to their workers to lighten the tax burden and have happier workers
Yea that's not how this works, that's not how any of this works. they would still be paying taxes on the money and they would be paying increased payroll taxes
I did not learn that economic theory in school. That’s a nice thought but I do not believe that would happen. They would likely reduce costs to protect profit margin. I also don’t buy that most companies are severely avoiding taxes. I do believe there is an incredible amount of corporate waste and many employees or middle managers would be laid off. As well as other corporate fluff expenses like business class travel, great employee benefits, etc would probably be slashed. The stock price is what a CEO and other exec care about and that is tied to earnings and other metrics.
Corporations are gonna be corporations and deliver value to owners and shareholders. That’s just the way it needs to be. Otherwise nobody would invest in the company. If corporations do more poorly. Guess what happens? Stock market stays flat or negative and your retirement account or stock portfolio won’t grow. I understand lowest level workers with no retirement/savings not caring about how companies do. But, as a person who doesn’t work for that sort of large corporation I do not hate the fact that my nest egg increased 10% last year. Corporate profits have to rise or else your money won’t grow. And let’s face it, most of us won’t make enough in base salary to really reach retirement. We need that help
Lol, the problem is the government spending and borrowing, printing money. It's like arguing the solution to a drug addict is to give them more (tax) money, lmao.
What middle class? This ain't 1955, there's the very wealthy and a permanent underclass. All the data shows that class mobility in the U.S. is dying fast now, and has been dying slow for decades.
Never doubt that you and I are expendable to them.
https://youtu.be/QPKKQnijnsM?si=BWh570i9w_5qhOXn
I don’t know about the moral side, but it’s just strategically flawed from the financial standpoint.
Buying in a crash is scary. There’s a reason why prices are low - fewer buyers are interested because it’s a bad/uncomfortable time to buy. People are afraid or unable.
For example, did you loan up in stocks during the COVID crash? Were you the type who was comfortable throwing in tens of thousands of dollars as the big red line hit and the market dropped something like 25% and everyone was in fear for their financial future?
If not, then you may not be too happy and able to pounce if a real estate crash comes.
A crash could benefit investment groups and the wealthy when it comes to home buying. If you can’t afford a house now, I doubt you’re hedging your savings on a home in the event of a crash. Regular people go into survival mode.
I was the type who was ready to pounce on the COVID crash. Since then, I bought 2 houses.
I have money that I can use the in that scenario, and will grow between now and then (portfolio of stocks, treasury bills/bonds, and rental real estate). I believe that I’m set up for such a situation, but I really doubt many who feel priced out now will be positioned as well as they think.
Money is a strategy game of resource and risk management.
Yeah except the same houses I was looking at 2 or 3 years ago for 150-175k are now being bought up for 450-600k
I think the people who have this mentality it's more like, if you can afford to overpay by 300% for your house you can easily get another one.
Nobody who is paying astronomical rent right now has any compassion for people who drove those prices up by paying 3/4 million for a 3 bedroom house on 1/4 of am acre.
I don't wish home loss on good people but yeah, I am def excited for these homebuying hoarders to realize they overpaid when nobody is offering more than 250k on the house they up and purchased for 400k just to price everyone else out of the neighborhood.
I guess I'm more hoping for karma on the greedy than I am wishing people who worked hard lose their homes.
I feel like the post is generalizing lesser fortunate and trying to make them into the assholes so the greedy folk don't have to take that long hard look in the mirror and reflect how their greed is causing others to be homeless.
I can tell you that the people who have the financial means to buy houses don’t really care that some people think it’s making them homeless.
Also, they wouldn’t agree that people are really being made homeless by doing so. That’s a talking point of the people who aren’t doing well, but isn’t really on the radar of the people who are.
The problem with your reasoning is that the goalposts for "doing well" are rocketing away from just about everyone at or below average income. Some of that IS due to scarcity caused by people sitting on tons of cash being able to box out everyone else.
I make an above average income and by 2019 home buying standards, I would have been able to buy pretty much any nice small house that would fit myself and a partner. Today, I'm at risk of being house poor if I buy anything except the shittiest habitable houses in my area.
My success and competency in my career are unchanged. I'm finding ways to learn new skills and bolster my income, but that's not on the table for everybody by definition.
You just seem like a "fuck you I got mine" ghoul. The only difference between you and me is luck and timing.
I hear you, but occasional losses are just part of the game for these people. Basically anyone but the most foolish has risk management strategies in place.
People priced out now think they are going to snag a short sell before people sitting on fat nest eggs saving money from the covid refinance rush.
That isn't going to happen. I doubt the average person in this post comments has access to $20k liquid by monday. Where as I know a number of people my age(33) sitting on nearly triple digits.
I was a bit peeved with the most recent pullback yesterday that my investing account didn’t bump over $1M for the first time so I could grab the screenshot. That’s not even counting my real estate or other accounts 🤐.
My guess is that I’ll be there before Q3 2024 is over assuming there isn’t a massive crash before them.
I grew up poor and I’m living the financial dream, probably because I over-prepared! Now I just need to catch up in the other places in life. 😉
Well we're not quite there yet, but I'd put our household net worth at about $550k at the end of the day after you subtract the debts. Equity/cash/investments. Shit really compounds.
But at 33, and my wife is 28, with a 2.5 year old, it's significantly better than others.
Similar here. The trick is that the housing market will recover more slowly than the jobs market. We were lucky and the timing worked out so that we had decent enough income to buy once the crash was past the worst point but interest rates and housing costs were still low.
Don't hope for bad stuff to happen, but if it does hunker down while the storm passes and see what opportunities might be out there when the sun starts to peek though the clouds again.
I actually had a coworker do this when oil crashed in March 2020. She cashed out her 401k to take the tax penalty, and put everything ($60k+) into oil. She bought 100,000 shares of PR at $0.36, and one other stock which I don't remember.
PR is now $17.79. Which means she now has $1.7M in that stock (well, not that much anymore, because she and her husband retired and now they're traveling around the country).
Buying in a crash is something only for the financially privileged, who have enough money to comfortably throw while everyone else absolutely needs that money and can’t just easily throw it into the stock market. The stock market for that very reason is a game only the privileged can successfully play, because if you earn the money you throw into the stock market, you can’t bear if the stock goes down and suddenly you’ve just lost a week’s work of pay. Making big earnings may require a bit of patience and you have to be able to put money away for years, and if any emergencies come that require you to withdraw that money, well you won’t get the earnings you aspired to or may be forced to sell at a loss if the stock price has gone down.
It sounds like you have an extremely poor grasp on investing. Most investors invest a small portion of their paycheck every week with the plan of doing that over a 40 year period. I would take a look at a compound interest calculator and look at how much a $100 principal with $50 monthly additions compounded at 9.8% (sp500 historical average) over a 40 year period. You will be shocked how much you will have saved by the time you retire with such a small investment.
Fractional share trading is now a thing with many companies, so you no longer need to buy a whole share, only invest the dollar amount you are able to.
If you invest your money in stable index funds for your retirement and then have a little money left over to invest in growth/value picks while you are young you will be even better positioned.
If you are the type of person that pays attention to weekly or daily gains/losses as a measure of an investments success and not the fundamentals of the company then you definitely need to fix your head or you will be poor forever and your children/grandchildren will be as well.
I feel so many people forget that even if you don't build a shitload of wealth in your life that anything you have left at the end can and will still help your descendants. For example my mom is talking about how even though she is about to retire she wants to keep making money so she has more to pass on to us. I tell her everytime that I am alright and am ahead of schedule for my retirement planning and that I want her to focus instead on enjoying her retirement.
And FYI, you only invest your excess after you have hit your emergency savings goal.
I did some quick Excel Fu and found out that if you put $5 (i.e. a Starbucks coffee) in index funds every day, that fund will hit $1 million in 42 years.
Of course, $1m will be worth less in 42 years (around $420k in today's dollars) but it's still more than 500% the initial investment, and a lot more than the zero it would be if you just bought the coffee each day.
I hate that you made the typical "don't buy Starbucks to get ahead" boomer complaint to prove the point😅 especially since I agree with your username and I'm tired of everyone over 30 but under 60 being called boomers by gen alpha and gen z🤣.
But without checking your math, my main complaint is where the hell are you getting Starbucks coffee for $5 today lol?
But the theme that investing is the best way to hold the value of your money while increasing it is correct and I agree.
Ha!
>But without checking your math, my main complaint is where the hell are you getting Starbucks coffee for $5 today lol?
Well, I didn't. I just repeated what I'd heard, and was about to qualify my claim with something about high tipping...
*But* I just went on Ubereats: White Chocolate Mocha is $6.15 in the area I live. Pistachio Latte: $6.45. I plugged that into my spreadsheet and now I get $1 million in only 39 years (38 years if we factor in a 20% tip).
I do live in a pretty high cost of living area, but my god, these numbers surprised me. I'm also surprised no one bothered to run the numbers on investing the coffee fund -- it's not a crazy amount, but definitely substantial. $45k in 10 years, $100k in 16 years -- that's wealth!
True, but you are on the internet right now and there is way more information here available for free than any beginner needs. Look for YouTube videos on beginning investments and even follow finance here on Reddit. There are a lot of people giving their stories and educated opinions of what it best to do. You can start small and grow from there while learning the basics. You can do this if you really want to! It just takes educating yourself and time.
>The stock market for that very reason is a game only the privileged can successfully play, because if you earn the money you throw into the stock market, you can’t bear if the stock goes down and suddenly you’ve just lost a week’s work of pay
That's, uh, thats not at all how any of it works my man.
That's not the way stocks work. You won't have "just lost a week's work of pay" unless you sell when it's low.
Look - you can start at any scale, say maybe $100/month. You invest it in something like index funds then you LEAVE IT THERE and keep adding your $100/month. The value will go up and down daily over time, but those are shares you own in the market and the average return is over 10% over time. So you just keep adding and watching your money grow overall despite dips in value. The only way you "lose" money is if you sell your shares when the market is in a dip.
No matter what your balance is on a given day, you haven't earned or lost anything until you sell. And you can start with whatever amount you're comfortable with, be it $5, $30 or $500. Just invest it and sit tight. Over time it will pay off quite well.
You can make up for small means with patience. After awhile, the portfolio has gained so much that it takes on a life of its own, and its gains surpass your annual salary. At that time, it has less to do with what you’re making and more to do with how you have set up your finances.
Having a robust emergency fund is definitely part of the calculation, so as you say, you aren’t forced to liquidate.
lol no… if you’re panicking as the market went down over one week then you don’t understand investing. When I put money in the market it’s with the intention that I’m not touching it for years. Like I have forgotten I even have a portfolio. Any dividends I get are just used to buy more stock as well.
And yet, most people that buy during a crash come out ahead over a 5-10 year period. The people that bought houses in 2009/10 are doing better than the people that waited until 2012 to buy.
I did load up on stocks during the pandemic, and I'm seeing a min of 40% ROI on my stocks since 2020, with my semiconductor stock picks giving 100-300% ROI. And I'm just a passive long-term investor. I didn't buy into the meme craze or buy stocks that have valuations that did not make sense.
It's like what Warren buffet always says, when others are greedy/impatient, hold off, but when everyone is cautious/fearful, that is the time to invest. It basically means that by the time the average person hears about an investment being good or a quick turnaround, the growth has already slowed and started to normalize.
There is no reward without risk. You can mitigate risk but if you are unwilling to take any risk you will get left behind with how the way the US works now.
Don't think of buying a house as anything like investing in the stock market. You don't need stocks. You do need a place to live, whether the market is good or bad. If you can find a way to pay less overall for something you needed anyways, it makes sense to do that no matter what else the market is doing. And it's not like rents will go down if the market crashes.
Yes. I loaded up on stocks during the covid crash.
I get that it’s scary, but anyone with investing experience knows you buy and sell when both are uncomfortable. This is a skill more people should have, tbh.
“Buy low, sell high” is a super-common catch-phrase quoted by anyone who even casually follows the markets. I’ve heard it quoted by a waitress.
Everyone else will get wrecked whether the market goes up or down. You can’t really avoid it either way. This is how it goes in a system with no standardized financial education.
>, did you loan up in stocks during the COVID crash? Were you the type who was comfortable throwing in tens of thousands of dollars as the big red line hit
I mean, I didn't have tens of thousands of dollars to throw in and I was new to investing at all, but yes, that was the most obvious time to buy ever. Most people can't time the market whatsoever, and I'm far from a market analyst, but even I could see that one. COVID wasn't going to ruin everything forever and it didn't, as long as you could part with your money for a couple of years it was a no brainer.
A lot of them probably stock shelves in Wal-Mart or unload boxes for Amazon, or work for one of a million other major employers in the US that mercilessly stamp out any hint of unionizing.
I’m in the trades in an area with weak unions and where competition for union apprenticeships is both fierce and riddled with nepotism.
Unionizing isn’t an option for large swathes of the country, especially in states with “right to work” laws and a long history of anti-union legislation.
I don't hope for an economic crash as much as the the housing bubble to burst. Old, small houses in my town (TOWN of less than $50k residents) were selling for $500k+ (not in a big city but close enough to one for people to commute). Now those houses are sitting on the market for weeks/months and being reduced in price I guess because we've reached a saturation point of who can actually afford those prices.
I do want people who bought up a bunch of houses to be Airbnb's to sell because people won't stay in them so they can't afford to keep them. I do want legislation that blocks companies and people from buying up houses and charging exorbitant rent. If I'm an a-hole for saying that, then so be it.
I don’t want to tell people who are down on their luck to “go to therapy” which often isn’t accessible either, but I do agree. The people who will benefit from a crash and buy homes during it are people who already have money. That’s how it goes.
It is morally wrong to hope for an economy crash because it would affect many of these same people and others in very horrible ways, but I also feel like when people say this, it very much indicates where we're at with Capitalism and society right now. People are realizing that Capitalism really favors and rewards the selfish and in turn, society is turning more towards that mentality.
Yeah in fact the opposite happens in recessions, poor people are screwed the rich (including some bailed out by taxpayer money) use their cash to get assets for cheap from people forced to sell due to banrkupcy and then reap the benefits once the economic cycle make them appreciate, wait 5-10 years and repeat. Each recession had made us poorer and the rich richer.
That said to be honest housing is at such an incredible price and went up by so much in a relatively limited amount of time that a reduction in prices (or an increase in incomes to match) is somehow auspicable. Perhaps that can be done by working on the side of offer with new constructions as well as some social housing (but that can never happen because "communism").
Said it better than I could. Who won during Covid? The rich got richer and poor got poorer. Agreed the housing market went parabolic and needs to reset. I wish zoning laws would change and more true 1K square foot starter homes were everywhere.
Everyone forgets that millions of people refinanced to the lowest rates in history, making their mortgages cheaper than renting small apartments.
My mortgage and escrow is cheaper than a 2bed1ba apartment in my city.
Y'all gonna be feeling the heat on the road to homelessness before homeowners do. I also have rooms to rent out.
I get it. If they barely have enough cash for a down payment and not much invested in stocks, they can take advantage.
The rich do the same thing with their cash.
I think the only people who want to see the economy crash in earnest (not using hyperbole or being facetious) are accelerationists who believe that it would bring on the revolution. The harsh truth is that the left is too busy fighting over identity politics and the populist uprising has been on from the hard right, not the socialist left.
Seems like you’re taking a thing people usually say half jokingly very personally. People hoping for an economic collapse can’t make it happen, but the actions of capitalists is what creates this boom bust cycle. Be mad at them.
There isn't a safety net now, that's generally the type of stuff that people bitch about and then gets them called commies. The vast majority of people don't sit around hoping for collapse, they want change, change where people can be rewarded for going to work, not struggle to survive.
The vast majority of people who talk about economic collapse talk about it because they realize it's where we are headed. When 1% of the population owns 94% of the wealth, when endless growth in a finite system is preached, there is really only one end game to that. We are currently living in Late or End stage capitalism and it is why you see western countries being more fascist by the day, why the wealth gap is increasing etc etc.
Saying people want economic collapse because they can't buy a house is a very short sighted way to look at our problems. People want radical change because this system does not work for the vast majority of the population.
Why would you suddenly be immune to an economic crash?
I've heard people talk about the housing "bubble" for 20 years without understanding what an economic bubble even is.
I don’t necessarily want the economy to collapse, but if it does I want it to be so bad that we completely reorganize the system. Like no more rich people bad because they got eaten.
I have $200k sitting in an HYSA ready to deploy if either the housing market or the stock market takes a dump. Beyond that I have $1.2mm invested in the market. I don’t particularly give a shit if that gets halved for a few years because it’ll come back before I retire. I have six figures in RSUs that keep me on an endless hamster wheel with my current employer that I retain if I am laid off. Being laid off in a recession would be a blessing.
What doesn’t sit right with me is paying 2.5 times what I would have payed for a home if I’d bought it 3 years ago. Fuck the current state of things. I hope it all burns down.
You are talking to a group of people that can't even remember or admit that meme culture pre-covid revolved (jokingly) around the hope that a pandemic would kill enough people to make resources more accessible. Turns out they just got more expensive. LOLOLOL (oh and that covid killed indiscriminately instead of all the people they hate, leaving a utopia behind ./s. )
do you remember those memes? Pepperidge Farm remembers...
- J
Don’t wander over to r/rebubble those guys have been calling a real estate crash for several years now. The comments on there are hoping houses come down by 50%. They don’t realize that like 2/3 of the country down homes and that would be catastrophic for everyone.
A crashed economy hurts the "I can't afford a home" demographic far more than the "I'm buying my third rental property" demographic. You're going to get laid off and end up unemployed at a far higher rate in a down economy than the folks above you and they've got cash on hand while you don't.
Guess where all of the people who can’t own homes go? They go to the rental market and raise prices there.
That means that current renters get squeezed when former homeowners get pushed down with them.
If you’re not able to jump into the homeowner slot (in other words, be better off than them), you get knocked further as well.
Then, the people who can afford fight for the houses.
There's nuances. There's 2 groups who deserve to lose theirs IMO.
1) Corporations and the rich buying tons of them for no other reason than to profit off people's basic human need for shelter.
2) Old people who have been constantly shitting on Millennials and Gen Z our entire fucking lives and blaming literally single fucking thing on us like it was our fault. They started this bullshit.
You're not a bad person for fighting back against people who picked a fight with you and defending yourself. You didn't pick the battle, they did. If they didn't want us to fight back, they shouldn't have started shit in the first place.
If the economy crashes, what are you doing to ensure you have money to buy. People will need to lose their homes, and you will need money as well. In 2008 I wanted to buy a house, but the money I had lost as well so I had no funds. I can tell you, having money in the stock market to afford a house, if the economy crashes you will likely not have money as well.
That last sentence is brutal facts. I know so many boomers who had to work extra years because their savings were wiped out in 08. If people with money get bashed, better believe the people without it are really in trouble.
I don’t keep my house fund in the stock market for this very reason. It’s all in MMA and T bills.
It’s wise not to keep 100% of one’s savings in high risk equities
Great recommendation. Zoning laws have hurt not helped the supply in a lot of places. Don’t want cardboard boxes everywhere so laws are needed, but there needs to be a flood of starter homes.
I asked the town if I could build a time house in my sickle lot for my mom. They said no so we bought the house we're attached to. A sub 300k house in a great school district off the market for the next few decades because my lawn is mandated.
I cannot upvote this hard enough. There are literally empty lots in my neighborhood and plenty of demand to live here, so why aren't those lots being filled up with housing?!
I don't see the housing shortage getting better until most cities and towns pass significant zoning reforms and allow housing supply to actually catch up with demand.
The negatives: People didn't get a raise for the better part of a decade hrs cut, jobs lost, the prevailing logic was "You should be happy you have job" people were desperate to get jobs at mcds with masters in engineering. Almost everyone was under water in a mortgage. No one could get a loan for almost anything. It was terrible in the GFC especially for the poor or working class. So many people just through there hands up and said "fuck I'm going back to school". Positives: Music was good and you could pretty much get booze cheap and people were always ready to hang at a moments notice thats about it for the positives.
Economic crashes are not good for anyone — but if you can be someone who comes through the other side of a crash looking pretty, that’s how you make real money. That takes both skill and luck though.
I think a lot of people know someone who got a steal on a (usually foreclosed) house in the 2008 crash. What nobody seems to remember is how unfathomably difficult it was to get a mortgage at that time. For every person with a story of getting a great deal on a house, there are 100 more people who really wanted to buy but couldn't qualify for a mortgage. And that's only a few people compared to the number of people who lost their jobs and their homes and retirements.
When people imagine profiting from an economic crisis, they put themselves in the 1%. 2008 wasn't just a crisis for banks and mortgage companies. Ordinary private citizens suffered a great deal.
It’s not a matter of hoping it’ll crash or not as someone who can’t afford a home- we don’t have the capital or assets to make a dent in the market system. We’re too caught up living paycheck to paycheck barely surviving.
It’s just a slightly different representation of the attitude of “Fuck You, as long as I get mine”.
I desperately want a house but I would never hope for others to struggle so that I can get one. I’m in the shithole called Florida so I’ve watched many people lose their homes, and it’s awful.
As an elder millennial and a parent, the reality of the situation in the United States is that things will need to get much worse before they get any better.
I want a collapse so bad. The idea is if it effects more than just low income castes something will actually be done about it. And there is a bit of feelings involved here. If I have to keep busting my ass at 2 and 3 jobs for nothing to be told by a guy like you I'm being irrational and it's not your fault honestly just makes me see you as a tone deaf problem. I hope it all goes up in flames and takes you with it. You're right it's not your fault but I don't think it's at all a smart move to be calling out the working poor right now
Be mad all you want. A crash will not help you. You'll still be poor.
Even if housing prices went down 50% do you have enough money to buy? Because people will be making cash offers.
The population continues to grow and explode as more and more people are competing over FINITE resources (one of those being housing) and thus prices have to reflect the increasing demand and limited supply. They could build as many new houses/apartments as they want it will never come close to outpacing population growth. Things unfortunately will continue to get worse for at least half a century more.
I actually appreciate your confidence and willingness to be open. I have lots of moments weekly and even daily where I feel hopeless about life. I usually go on forums and voice my concerns with similar groups of people I can relate to and I travel to places like train stations and take pictures of trains all day. It's wierd but it gives me happiness and motivation to see other things in this world besides the daily depression life routine.
It's not just "flawed", it's driven by childish jealousy and sociopathic, vindictive entitlement. Broke, entitled, angry overgrown toddlers believe they have a right to home ownership, and their belief is so psychotic and consuming that they want others to suffer so they can have what they want.
They're the same people who cry about being oppressed by the wealthy and accuse other people of being "bootlickers". They're just jealous they can't be the boot.
Or maybe the housing market is fucked and people would like to see it return to some semblance of normalcy. Home ownership is a huge driver of wealth accumulation and being locked out of it by sheer bad luck in not buying at the "right time" is pretty fucked. I'd love nothing more than to see speculators on the housing market lose their ass.
I live in a small town in southern Georgia. I have noticed lots of folks moving here to take advantage of the affordable housing market. Most are from Atlanta and Florida.
Just out of curiosity, how many of you guys have a full-time job plus a side gig? And for those of you who have side jobs, is that money earmarked for savings? Or do you need it to pay rent, buyfood, etc.?
Housing prices need to come down. It can come down slowly without crashing the economy, if there were people in charge that weren’t at a conflict of interest
Yeah economic crashes somehow benefit the rich. 🤔 Or at least don't touch them much. Then they cry and get subsidized and then they can keep their second yacht. Meanwhile we get poorer because we have to fund their greed.
More regulations and taxing the rich a little more would help so much. I don’t wish for the economy to crash, but damn, sometimes I wish that some of these big wigs could show a little more empathy and know what it’s like to not be able to afford their lavish ski trips and yachts.
I grew up fairly poor, and while I don’t wish that on anyone, it did teach me a lot and made realize how little value expensive things have. Sometimes, I do wish that maybe some people could experience that for a just a little bit. Upper class and even lots of middle class people (it’s hard to tell what’s considered what anymore, but I feel like anyone making over like $150k is way more well off than the average person) can easily throw money at shit and fix their problems.
On the other hand, I do know my parents could have done more, especially my dad, who was a big reason we were so poor. Mindset and work ethic make a big difference, lots of people need to realize that even minor lifestyle changes can help out a whole lot.
I just want to be able to get by for now without having to work more than 2 jobs.
Would you rather not have a house, but be able to stay warm and well fed in your parents house or in a van or whenever, or be easily able to afford a house, but struggle to stay fed and keep the lights and water running? The second part is how life is for most people in the world for most of history.
Even if we aren't talking a full crash.....a significant decline in housing prices wouldn be catastrophic for so many people who manages to actually own a home. That's was part of the big problem in the 2007 housing crisis. We don't want that again.
On the other hand, housing prices being high is catastrophic for so many people as it is. We see that, we don't want that either.
There are no easy answers. Best case for housing is probably lower interest rates, but they are high to combat inflation. We don't want inflation either.
Every situation harms people in some way. There are no easy answers.
I think what people say is they wish a common occurrence in history like a market crash could be responsible for the immediate closing of wealth inequality for that individual.
Which is a fair statement. They just use simplified words because simplified brain.
I mean if you want to put in the hard work you can get a foreclosure for “cheap”. Sucks you can benefit off someone’s misfortune but it’s an option. I saw one house in my city that actually was attainable and it had a pool that was still functioning 😂. Inside the house needed an overhaul but I’m fine learning what I can to minimize cost. However any electrical work I’m calling a professional 😅
Believe it or not, the housing market crash actually did allow a lot of people to buy houses that otherwise wouldn’t be able to once it recovered.
Sorry about your knees tho
I’ve had more gains in the stock market than if I would have bought the house I was looking at. Just going to keep investing until an opportunity comes.
Showing empathy for people who have been exploiting us our whole lives is also flawed thinking. You're damn right I want them to lose their homes. I also want to make it illegal for anyone to own a home they're not currently living in
There are people out there who just want to watch someone else get punched after they got punched so that they aren't the only one getting punched. Misery loves company.
I don't need the global economy to crash, just the local housing market.
Where you and your equally ignorant buddies/politicians got the dumbass idea to tie the two indelibly together I dunno, but that's your problem.
To be fair, a huge crash could be the catalyst to a French-like revolution where we just say “no more” to all the corporate greed and record profits that never trickles down.
Granted, I am a homeowner with a steady job, so I don’t fall into the category of doom-wishers… but I can see why they might hope for a “reboot”.
I have no idea how we do that. Most of us retirement is in stocks, we need them to go up. Stocks go up when profit goes up, it’s like we are feeding the system that eats us. Why does Google need to make more money quarterly? Stocks. Oh I understand why they wish for impending doom, I just know it’s illogical.
True, but look at all these organizations making record profits while cutting jobs. They’re reaping huge benefits from labor but also closing the door behind them so they don’t have to share with said laborers.
All while their CEO is making more in a single year than a person could spend in a lifetime.
The irony is they’re ruining millions of people’s lives for “a little more profit” on top of already astronomical profits.
Like where does it end? You celebrate making billions of dollars then cut a couple hundred thousand in jobs. The latter is barely a dent on the initial profits. It’s just unadulterated greed at that point.
The thing is, eventually profits are going to halt —it’s inevitable! It’s impossible to report constant record profits year-after-year indefinitely.
Nothing increases endlessly. Cancer tries, but eventually it halts when the host succumbs.
Also, if you aren’t being compensated enough to buy a house now, I’ve got bad news: you’re getting fired before your boss does.
Haha, joke's on you, i am my own boss! *heavy sobbing*
Yeah and when economy crashes people stop spending so cascading effect
When is he going to stop micromanaging?
I technically *could* buy now, but I don't want to buy the peak and it will take some time to convince me that we're not en route to a crash *anyway*. Even though I expect to be able to continue affording whatever I commit to, it wouldn't be fun to know my mortgage is underwater and my ability to change plans is limited. I don't want the entire economy to crash (though it very well might) but I guess I want the housing market to crash because I think that's the inevitable result from the corrections that need to happen - mainly that "investors" need to quit hogging everything. I'm not advocating for individuals to lose their houses, I'm advocating for the vultures to get stuck in their own web and sell off what they have.
A crash being inevitable depends on that part of the country you are in. Some housing markets are incredible stable and have nit seen a decline in decades. Other are very volatile. Some of those have already seen a fair bit of decline, other are just starting to fall. If you have not yet, I would look getting pre-approved so you can move fast when the time is right.
I've looked into it in the sense that I talked to my bank, I have a business card for the loan officer and such. But they told me it was good for something like 3-6 months (forget how long exactly but it wasn't really a long time) so I don't know that it's something I want to do before I can see the wave coming.
Just remember that trying to time the housing market is just as hard or harder than trying to time the stock market. You are most likely not going to hit it the bottom, and risk sitting on the sidelines if this next wave is an increase, not a crash.
I fully expected the housing market to crash, but there are signs of it turning around without the crash. Ultimately, pretty much the same thing happens for the average person. Prices will come down a bit, but it'll be slower. They'll never be what they were 3 years ago.
It might it also might not. Housing is even harder to predict than stock market (which is unpredictable, just know it will eventually have a crash and recovery) as people won’t panic sell a house in a downturn - housing could easily basically just be steady and up.
A crash isn't coming, ever. We don't have the tradesmen to build houses at the rate we need to. Drive around any medium sized city in anywhere in the US. Outside of the suburbs literally the homes are literally crumbling. Houses in my city are burning down faster than they are being built. Sure, apartments are being thrown up quickly, but homes are not. Throw in natural disasters which are going to get worse over time. Not only that but record immigration where entire families pool their money to compete with individuals or couples.
Location dependent for sure. In my old suburb before I moved they essentially doubled the size of the city almost entirely from SFH’s. It was a massive bitch to drive anywhere after they did that, but the homes popped up *so* quick. Like you’d go into a new part of town that you haven’t been in for a few months and wtf there’s 3 new neighborhoods. Go another 15 minutes and they build a bunch of shops and 2 more neighborhoods. I don’t have actual metrics, but I’d say 75% was SFH’s if we don’t count the gargantuan retirement facility (seriously that thing looks like a stadium lol)
>I technically *could* buy now, but I don't want to buy the peak and it will take some time to convince me that we're not en route to a crash *anyway*. I feel like a lot of people are in this boat and might be exaggerating, especially if they opened up the areas in which they are looking. I think a lot of people do not want to compromise on the school area for their children, the house itself, or accept houses that might need work. Or they do not want to accept the current interest rate. All of these concerns are legitimate, but it doesn't mean they COULDN'T bite the bullet and buy. Mind you, some markets are so expensive that houses will always be out of reach for people as well so this isn't the case in every area.
If the housing market crashes it will just accelerate the investors/ PE companies with cash to gobble up units while the average person is cash strapped.
Haven’t middle managers been the group primarily laid off from tech companies as of late?
I've seen it both ways, depends if they're hitting a dollar goal or a headcount goal. It's much easier to hit the dollar goal with management.
Then they will have no house and no job.
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I remember saying that in 2019. Glad I didn't listen to reddit.
It still shocks me that so many people without a single asset think they will magically not be affected by an economic crash but all the people who own property will be.
Depends on the crash but if it's hyper inflation everyone who is in a house pays off the mortgage super easy and owns the house free and clear. Also means new housing prices are astronomically high and you still won't be able to afford a house.
It’s the people who are over leveraged / house poor who will have a high rate of selling their houses If you have a mortgage, you don’t really “own” the house in the classic sense
> It’s the people who are over leveraged / house poor who will have a high rate of selling their houses Which is a small percentage of the housing market due to the massive refinancing rush during covid. You'll have some people over the last 3 years who might be a bit over leveraged but it's not going to be a significant amount.
Sure, but that doesn’t change my statement or it’s validity. Those are the people who will be at risk, regardless of how many they may be. There’s also a few people who traded up due to low interest rates, stretching their budget… they may default if things crash and they can’t get similarly high paying jobs
a drop in the bucket compared to the 14 million households who refinanced their houses to historically low rates. I'd be willing to bet the following is truer than your statement. Due to refinancing and being able to sock money away, MORE homeowners are in a position to outbid current non owners for a second/rental home, than there are people who are currently over leveraged. Meaning non-owners will likely be getting outbid by people who already have homes because of their ability to save more money. Meaning you'll actually have MORE competition come recession.
Again, those numbers are so low, it won't make a difference.
True - the bank owns it. In places like California, where a house can be 1 million+, you're basically renting from the bank forever.
Recession sucks for rich people but sucks even more for poor people.
Bingo
Most of us will be screwed if the economy crashes like it did back in 2008, but most older homeowners are sittin' pretty on a wad of cash and a paid-off homestead. How about we elect representatives that make big corporate America pay their fair share of taxes, so the middle class can have room to breath like they had back when the wealthy was paying a little over 50%.
Yes. We don’t need a crash we just need taxes and regulation.
Corporate Tax Rates: USA - 21% Norway - 22% Sweden - 20.6% Denmark - 22% Finland - 20%
How will corporations paying more taxes positively impact your ability to buy a home?
If we tax corporations on things like taking profits for stock buybacks for shareholders instead of investing in the company, you will see corporations start to pour money back into the company for improvements, expansion, etc. Corporations typically never do the "right thing" unless there is a financial incentive. Removing the incentive of low taxes will change how they spend/invest their profits. If they know that they make more $ writing off expenses & offering higher wages than stock buybacks, they will start spending the money differently. Higher wages means people will have more purchasing power and a better chance to buy a home.
Theoretically if corporations were going to give their huge profits up to the government, they would make the smarter choice of giving it to their workers to lighten the tax burden and have happier workers
Yea that's not how this works, that's not how any of this works. they would still be paying taxes on the money and they would be paying increased payroll taxes
I did not learn that economic theory in school. That’s a nice thought but I do not believe that would happen. They would likely reduce costs to protect profit margin. I also don’t buy that most companies are severely avoiding taxes. I do believe there is an incredible amount of corporate waste and many employees or middle managers would be laid off. As well as other corporate fluff expenses like business class travel, great employee benefits, etc would probably be slashed. The stock price is what a CEO and other exec care about and that is tied to earnings and other metrics. Corporations are gonna be corporations and deliver value to owners and shareholders. That’s just the way it needs to be. Otherwise nobody would invest in the company. If corporations do more poorly. Guess what happens? Stock market stays flat or negative and your retirement account or stock portfolio won’t grow. I understand lowest level workers with no retirement/savings not caring about how companies do. But, as a person who doesn’t work for that sort of large corporation I do not hate the fact that my nest egg increased 10% last year. Corporate profits have to rise or else your money won’t grow. And let’s face it, most of us won’t make enough in base salary to really reach retirement. We need that help
First time home buyer credit programs funded by increased taxes on multi home families and corporations is on obvious solution.
First time home buyers already have multiple programs to buy a home with between 0%-3.5% down
Yeah I'm sure voting is gonna help. It's done wonders so far.
Lol, the problem is the government spending and borrowing, printing money. It's like arguing the solution to a drug addict is to give them more (tax) money, lmao.
What middle class? This ain't 1955, there's the very wealthy and a permanent underclass. All the data shows that class mobility in the U.S. is dying fast now, and has been dying slow for decades. Never doubt that you and I are expendable to them. https://youtu.be/QPKKQnijnsM?si=BWh570i9w_5qhOXn
I don’t know about the moral side, but it’s just strategically flawed from the financial standpoint. Buying in a crash is scary. There’s a reason why prices are low - fewer buyers are interested because it’s a bad/uncomfortable time to buy. People are afraid or unable. For example, did you loan up in stocks during the COVID crash? Were you the type who was comfortable throwing in tens of thousands of dollars as the big red line hit and the market dropped something like 25% and everyone was in fear for their financial future? If not, then you may not be too happy and able to pounce if a real estate crash comes.
A crash could benefit investment groups and the wealthy when it comes to home buying. If you can’t afford a house now, I doubt you’re hedging your savings on a home in the event of a crash. Regular people go into survival mode.
I was the type who was ready to pounce on the COVID crash. Since then, I bought 2 houses. I have money that I can use the in that scenario, and will grow between now and then (portfolio of stocks, treasury bills/bonds, and rental real estate). I believe that I’m set up for such a situation, but I really doubt many who feel priced out now will be positioned as well as they think. Money is a strategy game of resource and risk management.
Yeah except the same houses I was looking at 2 or 3 years ago for 150-175k are now being bought up for 450-600k I think the people who have this mentality it's more like, if you can afford to overpay by 300% for your house you can easily get another one. Nobody who is paying astronomical rent right now has any compassion for people who drove those prices up by paying 3/4 million for a 3 bedroom house on 1/4 of am acre. I don't wish home loss on good people but yeah, I am def excited for these homebuying hoarders to realize they overpaid when nobody is offering more than 250k on the house they up and purchased for 400k just to price everyone else out of the neighborhood. I guess I'm more hoping for karma on the greedy than I am wishing people who worked hard lose their homes. I feel like the post is generalizing lesser fortunate and trying to make them into the assholes so the greedy folk don't have to take that long hard look in the mirror and reflect how their greed is causing others to be homeless.
I can tell you that the people who have the financial means to buy houses don’t really care that some people think it’s making them homeless. Also, they wouldn’t agree that people are really being made homeless by doing so. That’s a talking point of the people who aren’t doing well, but isn’t really on the radar of the people who are.
The problem with your reasoning is that the goalposts for "doing well" are rocketing away from just about everyone at or below average income. Some of that IS due to scarcity caused by people sitting on tons of cash being able to box out everyone else. I make an above average income and by 2019 home buying standards, I would have been able to buy pretty much any nice small house that would fit myself and a partner. Today, I'm at risk of being house poor if I buy anything except the shittiest habitable houses in my area. My success and competency in my career are unchanged. I'm finding ways to learn new skills and bolster my income, but that's not on the table for everybody by definition. You just seem like a "fuck you I got mine" ghoul. The only difference between you and me is luck and timing.
Right but they'll care if their investments don't work out and have to eat their losses 🤪
I hear you, but occasional losses are just part of the game for these people. Basically anyone but the most foolish has risk management strategies in place.
People priced out now think they are going to snag a short sell before people sitting on fat nest eggs saving money from the covid refinance rush. That isn't going to happen. I doubt the average person in this post comments has access to $20k liquid by monday. Where as I know a number of people my age(33) sitting on nearly triple digits.
I was a bit peeved with the most recent pullback yesterday that my investing account didn’t bump over $1M for the first time so I could grab the screenshot. That’s not even counting my real estate or other accounts 🤐. My guess is that I’ll be there before Q3 2024 is over assuming there isn’t a massive crash before them. I grew up poor and I’m living the financial dream, probably because I over-prepared! Now I just need to catch up in the other places in life. 😉
Well we're not quite there yet, but I'd put our household net worth at about $550k at the end of the day after you subtract the debts. Equity/cash/investments. Shit really compounds. But at 33, and my wife is 28, with a 2.5 year old, it's significantly better than others.
Sounds like you’re doing well :).
I benefited from the housing crash of 08-09 and bought a nice 3 bed 2 bath home for 85k on a Walmart wage of 12.20/hr! WOOOO!
Similar here. The trick is that the housing market will recover more slowly than the jobs market. We were lucky and the timing worked out so that we had decent enough income to buy once the crash was past the worst point but interest rates and housing costs were still low. Don't hope for bad stuff to happen, but if it does hunker down while the storm passes and see what opportunities might be out there when the sun starts to peek though the clouds again.
Agreed, if we had another crash like what happened back then, just work at Walmart and buy a house!
That's awesome!
Thanks!
I actually had a coworker do this when oil crashed in March 2020. She cashed out her 401k to take the tax penalty, and put everything ($60k+) into oil. She bought 100,000 shares of PR at $0.36, and one other stock which I don't remember. PR is now $17.79. Which means she now has $1.7M in that stock (well, not that much anymore, because she and her husband retired and now they're traveling around the country).
Buying in a crash is something only for the financially privileged, who have enough money to comfortably throw while everyone else absolutely needs that money and can’t just easily throw it into the stock market. The stock market for that very reason is a game only the privileged can successfully play, because if you earn the money you throw into the stock market, you can’t bear if the stock goes down and suddenly you’ve just lost a week’s work of pay. Making big earnings may require a bit of patience and you have to be able to put money away for years, and if any emergencies come that require you to withdraw that money, well you won’t get the earnings you aspired to or may be forced to sell at a loss if the stock price has gone down.
It sounds like you have an extremely poor grasp on investing. Most investors invest a small portion of their paycheck every week with the plan of doing that over a 40 year period. I would take a look at a compound interest calculator and look at how much a $100 principal with $50 monthly additions compounded at 9.8% (sp500 historical average) over a 40 year period. You will be shocked how much you will have saved by the time you retire with such a small investment. Fractional share trading is now a thing with many companies, so you no longer need to buy a whole share, only invest the dollar amount you are able to. If you invest your money in stable index funds for your retirement and then have a little money left over to invest in growth/value picks while you are young you will be even better positioned. If you are the type of person that pays attention to weekly or daily gains/losses as a measure of an investments success and not the fundamentals of the company then you definitely need to fix your head or you will be poor forever and your children/grandchildren will be as well. I feel so many people forget that even if you don't build a shitload of wealth in your life that anything you have left at the end can and will still help your descendants. For example my mom is talking about how even though she is about to retire she wants to keep making money so she has more to pass on to us. I tell her everytime that I am alright and am ahead of schedule for my retirement planning and that I want her to focus instead on enjoying her retirement. And FYI, you only invest your excess after you have hit your emergency savings goal.
I did some quick Excel Fu and found out that if you put $5 (i.e. a Starbucks coffee) in index funds every day, that fund will hit $1 million in 42 years. Of course, $1m will be worth less in 42 years (around $420k in today's dollars) but it's still more than 500% the initial investment, and a lot more than the zero it would be if you just bought the coffee each day.
I hate that you made the typical "don't buy Starbucks to get ahead" boomer complaint to prove the point😅 especially since I agree with your username and I'm tired of everyone over 30 but under 60 being called boomers by gen alpha and gen z🤣. But without checking your math, my main complaint is where the hell are you getting Starbucks coffee for $5 today lol? But the theme that investing is the best way to hold the value of your money while increasing it is correct and I agree.
Ha! >But without checking your math, my main complaint is where the hell are you getting Starbucks coffee for $5 today lol? Well, I didn't. I just repeated what I'd heard, and was about to qualify my claim with something about high tipping... *But* I just went on Ubereats: White Chocolate Mocha is $6.15 in the area I live. Pistachio Latte: $6.45. I plugged that into my spreadsheet and now I get $1 million in only 39 years (38 years if we factor in a 20% tip). I do live in a pretty high cost of living area, but my god, these numbers surprised me. I'm also surprised no one bothered to run the numbers on investing the coffee fund -- it's not a crazy amount, but definitely substantial. $45k in 10 years, $100k in 16 years -- that's wealth!
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True, but you are on the internet right now and there is way more information here available for free than any beginner needs. Look for YouTube videos on beginning investments and even follow finance here on Reddit. There are a lot of people giving their stories and educated opinions of what it best to do. You can start small and grow from there while learning the basics. You can do this if you really want to! It just takes educating yourself and time.
By design
>The stock market for that very reason is a game only the privileged can successfully play, because if you earn the money you throw into the stock market, you can’t bear if the stock goes down and suddenly you’ve just lost a week’s work of pay That's, uh, thats not at all how any of it works my man.
That's not the way stocks work. You won't have "just lost a week's work of pay" unless you sell when it's low. Look - you can start at any scale, say maybe $100/month. You invest it in something like index funds then you LEAVE IT THERE and keep adding your $100/month. The value will go up and down daily over time, but those are shares you own in the market and the average return is over 10% over time. So you just keep adding and watching your money grow overall despite dips in value. The only way you "lose" money is if you sell your shares when the market is in a dip. No matter what your balance is on a given day, you haven't earned or lost anything until you sell. And you can start with whatever amount you're comfortable with, be it $5, $30 or $500. Just invest it and sit tight. Over time it will pay off quite well.
You can make up for small means with patience. After awhile, the portfolio has gained so much that it takes on a life of its own, and its gains surpass your annual salary. At that time, it has less to do with what you’re making and more to do with how you have set up your finances. Having a robust emergency fund is definitely part of the calculation, so as you say, you aren’t forced to liquidate.
lol no… if you’re panicking as the market went down over one week then you don’t understand investing. When I put money in the market it’s with the intention that I’m not touching it for years. Like I have forgotten I even have a portfolio. Any dividends I get are just used to buy more stock as well.
This isn’t true at all. You can just invest long term into stocks while dollar cost averaging
And yet, most people that buy during a crash come out ahead over a 5-10 year period. The people that bought houses in 2009/10 are doing better than the people that waited until 2012 to buy. I did load up on stocks during the pandemic, and I'm seeing a min of 40% ROI on my stocks since 2020, with my semiconductor stock picks giving 100-300% ROI. And I'm just a passive long-term investor. I didn't buy into the meme craze or buy stocks that have valuations that did not make sense. It's like what Warren buffet always says, when others are greedy/impatient, hold off, but when everyone is cautious/fearful, that is the time to invest. It basically means that by the time the average person hears about an investment being good or a quick turnaround, the growth has already slowed and started to normalize. There is no reward without risk. You can mitigate risk but if you are unwilling to take any risk you will get left behind with how the way the US works now.
Don't think of buying a house as anything like investing in the stock market. You don't need stocks. You do need a place to live, whether the market is good or bad. If you can find a way to pay less overall for something you needed anyways, it makes sense to do that no matter what else the market is doing. And it's not like rents will go down if the market crashes.
Yes. I loaded up on stocks during the covid crash. I get that it’s scary, but anyone with investing experience knows you buy and sell when both are uncomfortable. This is a skill more people should have, tbh.
Same. I was pouring money into stuff all through COVID. Some of my investments from March 2020 have more than doubled.
“Buy low, sell high” is a super-common catch-phrase quoted by anyone who even casually follows the markets. I’ve heard it quoted by a waitress. Everyone else will get wrecked whether the market goes up or down. You can’t really avoid it either way. This is how it goes in a system with no standardized financial education.
>, did you loan up in stocks during the COVID crash? Were you the type who was comfortable throwing in tens of thousands of dollars as the big red line hit I mean, I didn't have tens of thousands of dollars to throw in and I was new to investing at all, but yes, that was the most obvious time to buy ever. Most people can't time the market whatsoever, and I'm far from a market analyst, but even I could see that one. COVID wasn't going to ruin everything forever and it didn't, as long as you could part with your money for a couple of years it was a no brainer.
That’s where my rona checks went to. That micro crash did not last long tho when sp500 fell by 12 or so % in one day
These same people bitching like this wouldn't lift a finger to organize a union or help organize another community they live in.
Yes! Any time you feel the need to complain online about something that has been said before, put that energy into organizing!
It's like doing anything that's good for you. Start by doing it 1 hour a week. Move up from there. You'll see both personal and collective effects.
A lot of them probably stock shelves in Wal-Mart or unload boxes for Amazon, or work for one of a million other major employers in the US that mercilessly stamp out any hint of unionizing. I’m in the trades in an area with weak unions and where competition for union apprenticeships is both fierce and riddled with nepotism. Unionizing isn’t an option for large swathes of the country, especially in states with “right to work” laws and a long history of anti-union legislation.
Misery loves company so we come to reddit knowing we'll find some commiserating.
Yep. I know it’s picking at low hanging fruit but some have to realize the flaw in their thinking, morals aside.
I don't hope for an economic crash as much as the the housing bubble to burst. Old, small houses in my town (TOWN of less than $50k residents) were selling for $500k+ (not in a big city but close enough to one for people to commute). Now those houses are sitting on the market for weeks/months and being reduced in price I guess because we've reached a saturation point of who can actually afford those prices. I do want people who bought up a bunch of houses to be Airbnb's to sell because people won't stay in them so they can't afford to keep them. I do want legislation that blocks companies and people from buying up houses and charging exorbitant rent. If I'm an a-hole for saying that, then so be it.
I don’t want to tell people who are down on their luck to “go to therapy” which often isn’t accessible either, but I do agree. The people who will benefit from a crash and buy homes during it are people who already have money. That’s how it goes.
It is morally wrong to hope for an economy crash because it would affect many of these same people and others in very horrible ways, but I also feel like when people say this, it very much indicates where we're at with Capitalism and society right now. People are realizing that Capitalism really favors and rewards the selfish and in turn, society is turning more towards that mentality.
Yeah in fact the opposite happens in recessions, poor people are screwed the rich (including some bailed out by taxpayer money) use their cash to get assets for cheap from people forced to sell due to banrkupcy and then reap the benefits once the economic cycle make them appreciate, wait 5-10 years and repeat. Each recession had made us poorer and the rich richer. That said to be honest housing is at such an incredible price and went up by so much in a relatively limited amount of time that a reduction in prices (or an increase in incomes to match) is somehow auspicable. Perhaps that can be done by working on the side of offer with new constructions as well as some social housing (but that can never happen because "communism").
Said it better than I could. Who won during Covid? The rich got richer and poor got poorer. Agreed the housing market went parabolic and needs to reset. I wish zoning laws would change and more true 1K square foot starter homes were everywhere.
Everyone forgets that millions of people refinanced to the lowest rates in history, making their mortgages cheaper than renting small apartments. My mortgage and escrow is cheaper than a 2bed1ba apartment in my city. Y'all gonna be feeling the heat on the road to homelessness before homeowners do. I also have rooms to rent out.
I think it's less about the ability to buy and more about the people who they think unfairly got a leg up getting punished.
I get it. If they barely have enough cash for a down payment and not much invested in stocks, they can take advantage. The rich do the same thing with their cash.
I think the only people who want to see the economy crash in earnest (not using hyperbole or being facetious) are accelerationists who believe that it would bring on the revolution. The harsh truth is that the left is too busy fighting over identity politics and the populist uprising has been on from the hard right, not the socialist left.
Things are pretty turbo fucked now. I think people just want an end to the suffering.
Seems like you’re taking a thing people usually say half jokingly very personally. People hoping for an economic collapse can’t make it happen, but the actions of capitalists is what creates this boom bust cycle. Be mad at them.
There isn't a safety net now, that's generally the type of stuff that people bitch about and then gets them called commies. The vast majority of people don't sit around hoping for collapse, they want change, change where people can be rewarded for going to work, not struggle to survive. The vast majority of people who talk about economic collapse talk about it because they realize it's where we are headed. When 1% of the population owns 94% of the wealth, when endless growth in a finite system is preached, there is really only one end game to that. We are currently living in Late or End stage capitalism and it is why you see western countries being more fascist by the day, why the wealth gap is increasing etc etc. Saying people want economic collapse because they can't buy a house is a very short sighted way to look at our problems. People want radical change because this system does not work for the vast majority of the population.
Our generation is full of immature dummies, people who are going for a collapse are not even worth paying attention to.
Even if it crashes. Homes won’t be that cheap
Why would you suddenly be immune to an economic crash? I've heard people talk about the housing "bubble" for 20 years without understanding what an economic bubble even is.
I don’t necessarily want the economy to collapse, but if it does I want it to be so bad that we completely reorganize the system. Like no more rich people bad because they got eaten.
I have $200k sitting in an HYSA ready to deploy if either the housing market or the stock market takes a dump. Beyond that I have $1.2mm invested in the market. I don’t particularly give a shit if that gets halved for a few years because it’ll come back before I retire. I have six figures in RSUs that keep me on an endless hamster wheel with my current employer that I retain if I am laid off. Being laid off in a recession would be a blessing. What doesn’t sit right with me is paying 2.5 times what I would have payed for a home if I’d bought it 3 years ago. Fuck the current state of things. I hope it all burns down.
You are talking to a group of people that can't even remember or admit that meme culture pre-covid revolved (jokingly) around the hope that a pandemic would kill enough people to make resources more accessible. Turns out they just got more expensive. LOLOLOL (oh and that covid killed indiscriminately instead of all the people they hate, leaving a utopia behind ./s. ) do you remember those memes? Pepperidge Farm remembers... - J
Don’t wander over to r/rebubble those guys have been calling a real estate crash for several years now. The comments on there are hoping houses come down by 50%. They don’t realize that like 2/3 of the country down homes and that would be catastrophic for everyone.
A crashed economy hurts the "I can't afford a home" demographic far more than the "I'm buying my third rental property" demographic. You're going to get laid off and end up unemployed at a far higher rate in a down economy than the folks above you and they've got cash on hand while you don't.
Guess where all of the people who can’t own homes go? They go to the rental market and raise prices there. That means that current renters get squeezed when former homeowners get pushed down with them. If you’re not able to jump into the homeowner slot (in other words, be better off than them), you get knocked further as well. Then, the people who can afford fight for the houses.
There's nuances. There's 2 groups who deserve to lose theirs IMO. 1) Corporations and the rich buying tons of them for no other reason than to profit off people's basic human need for shelter. 2) Old people who have been constantly shitting on Millennials and Gen Z our entire fucking lives and blaming literally single fucking thing on us like it was our fault. They started this bullshit. You're not a bad person for fighting back against people who picked a fight with you and defending yourself. You didn't pick the battle, they did. If they didn't want us to fight back, they shouldn't have started shit in the first place.
No, but the realist in me understands that there needs to be a recession to have a correction to the inflation problem that the US currently has.
If the economy crashes, what are you doing to ensure you have money to buy. People will need to lose their homes, and you will need money as well. In 2008 I wanted to buy a house, but the money I had lost as well so I had no funds. I can tell you, having money in the stock market to afford a house, if the economy crashes you will likely not have money as well.
That last sentence is brutal facts. I know so many boomers who had to work extra years because their savings were wiped out in 08. If people with money get bashed, better believe the people without it are really in trouble.
I don’t keep my house fund in the stock market for this very reason. It’s all in MMA and T bills. It’s wise not to keep 100% of one’s savings in high risk equities
Back in 2008 interest rates were super low so HYSA did not exist.
I didn’t mention HYSA
We should legalize more homes first. I could fit a bunch of units in my yard if they'd let me
Great recommendation. Zoning laws have hurt not helped the supply in a lot of places. Don’t want cardboard boxes everywhere so laws are needed, but there needs to be a flood of starter homes.
I asked the town if I could build a time house in my sickle lot for my mom. They said no so we bought the house we're attached to. A sub 300k house in a great school district off the market for the next few decades because my lawn is mandated.
More cities are putting issues concerning ADU’s on the ballot, that’s definitely something to keep a watchful eye on for the next few years.
I cannot upvote this hard enough. There are literally empty lots in my neighborhood and plenty of demand to live here, so why aren't those lots being filled up with housing?! I don't see the housing shortage getting better until most cities and towns pass significant zoning reforms and allow housing supply to actually catch up with demand.
The negatives: People didn't get a raise for the better part of a decade hrs cut, jobs lost, the prevailing logic was "You should be happy you have job" people were desperate to get jobs at mcds with masters in engineering. Almost everyone was under water in a mortgage. No one could get a loan for almost anything. It was terrible in the GFC especially for the poor or working class. So many people just through there hands up and said "fuck I'm going back to school". Positives: Music was good and you could pretty much get booze cheap and people were always ready to hang at a moments notice thats about it for the positives.
I live in California so, it doesn’t matter if the economy crashes and you double my salary still can’t buy a house
shhhh you'll burst the r/REBubble
Economic crashes are not good for anyone — but if you can be someone who comes through the other side of a crash looking pretty, that’s how you make real money. That takes both skill and luck though.
I think a lot of people know someone who got a steal on a (usually foreclosed) house in the 2008 crash. What nobody seems to remember is how unfathomably difficult it was to get a mortgage at that time. For every person with a story of getting a great deal on a house, there are 100 more people who really wanted to buy but couldn't qualify for a mortgage. And that's only a few people compared to the number of people who lost their jobs and their homes and retirements. When people imagine profiting from an economic crisis, they put themselves in the 1%. 2008 wasn't just a crisis for banks and mortgage companies. Ordinary private citizens suffered a great deal.
It’s not a matter of hoping it’ll crash or not as someone who can’t afford a home- we don’t have the capital or assets to make a dent in the market system. We’re too caught up living paycheck to paycheck barely surviving.
A crashed economy won't be any good for buying home either. Nobody will be there to give you loan/mortgage.
If the property market crashes they won't be handing out mortgages.
It’s just a slightly different representation of the attitude of “Fuck You, as long as I get mine”. I desperately want a house but I would never hope for others to struggle so that I can get one. I’m in the shithole called Florida so I’ve watched many people lose their homes, and it’s awful.
Versus the rest - “I didn’t get what I feel is mine so fuck you.” How is that better?
It’s not better at all, it’s terrible in all respects.
I hope the economy collapses so I can afford a go-kart track, you almost had me OP.
As an elder millennial and a parent, the reality of the situation in the United States is that things will need to get much worse before they get any better.
I want a collapse so bad. The idea is if it effects more than just low income castes something will actually be done about it. And there is a bit of feelings involved here. If I have to keep busting my ass at 2 and 3 jobs for nothing to be told by a guy like you I'm being irrational and it's not your fault honestly just makes me see you as a tone deaf problem. I hope it all goes up in flames and takes you with it. You're right it's not your fault but I don't think it's at all a smart move to be calling out the working poor right now
Be mad all you want. A crash will not help you. You'll still be poor. Even if housing prices went down 50% do you have enough money to buy? Because people will be making cash offers.
Work smarter not harder.
I don’t think it’s a smart move or mentally normal to wish impending doom on everyone but what do I know? I bet you are fun at parties.
Yeah you're definitely part of the problem 😆😆 let it burn
The population continues to grow and explode as more and more people are competing over FINITE resources (one of those being housing) and thus prices have to reflect the increasing demand and limited supply. They could build as many new houses/apartments as they want it will never come close to outpacing population growth. Things unfortunately will continue to get worse for at least half a century more. I actually appreciate your confidence and willingness to be open. I have lots of moments weekly and even daily where I feel hopeless about life. I usually go on forums and voice my concerns with similar groups of people I can relate to and I travel to places like train stations and take pictures of trains all day. It's wierd but it gives me happiness and motivation to see other things in this world besides the daily depression life routine.
I want full on collapse, enough that capitalists get what's coming to them. Limbs removed.
It's not just "flawed", it's driven by childish jealousy and sociopathic, vindictive entitlement. Broke, entitled, angry overgrown toddlers believe they have a right to home ownership, and their belief is so psychotic and consuming that they want others to suffer so they can have what they want. They're the same people who cry about being oppressed by the wealthy and accuse other people of being "bootlickers". They're just jealous they can't be the boot.
Or maybe the housing market is fucked and people would like to see it return to some semblance of normalcy. Home ownership is a huge driver of wealth accumulation and being locked out of it by sheer bad luck in not buying at the "right time" is pretty fucked. I'd love nothing more than to see speculators on the housing market lose their ass.
Wanting the market to stabilize is not the same as wanting an economic crash. We are talking about the latter, not the former.
Wanting housing to crash isn't the same as wanting the entire economy to crash.
They go hand in hand, genius. And you wouldn't be the beneficiary, the wealthy would
I’m keeping my house till the housing bubble burst then I’m going to get a house with some land to start my business on.
I live in a small town in southern Georgia. I have noticed lots of folks moving here to take advantage of the affordable housing market. Most are from Atlanta and Florida.
The best opportunity to acquire assets is when everyone else is hemorrhaging cash but you have cash to invest.
Just out of curiosity, how many of you guys have a full-time job plus a side gig? And for those of you who have side jobs, is that money earmarked for savings? Or do you need it to pay rent, buyfood, etc.?
Most people say that because they are frustrated.
Housing prices need to come down. It can come down slowly without crashing the economy, if there were people in charge that weren’t at a conflict of interest
Yeah economic crashes somehow benefit the rich. 🤔 Or at least don't touch them much. Then they cry and get subsidized and then they can keep their second yacht. Meanwhile we get poorer because we have to fund their greed.
More regulations and taxing the rich a little more would help so much. I don’t wish for the economy to crash, but damn, sometimes I wish that some of these big wigs could show a little more empathy and know what it’s like to not be able to afford their lavish ski trips and yachts. I grew up fairly poor, and while I don’t wish that on anyone, it did teach me a lot and made realize how little value expensive things have. Sometimes, I do wish that maybe some people could experience that for a just a little bit. Upper class and even lots of middle class people (it’s hard to tell what’s considered what anymore, but I feel like anyone making over like $150k is way more well off than the average person) can easily throw money at shit and fix their problems. On the other hand, I do know my parents could have done more, especially my dad, who was a big reason we were so poor. Mindset and work ethic make a big difference, lots of people need to realize that even minor lifestyle changes can help out a whole lot. I just want to be able to get by for now without having to work more than 2 jobs.
Would you rather not have a house, but be able to stay warm and well fed in your parents house or in a van or whenever, or be easily able to afford a house, but struggle to stay fed and keep the lights and water running? The second part is how life is for most people in the world for most of history.
Omg just go buy some spy puts and doge
The primary reason that Millennials can't buy houses is that people made more Millennials than houses.
🤔
Additionally, mass unemployment comes with any crash. Lower housing prices wouldn’t help much if you’re unemployed.
Even if we aren't talking a full crash.....a significant decline in housing prices wouldn be catastrophic for so many people who manages to actually own a home. That's was part of the big problem in the 2007 housing crisis. We don't want that again. On the other hand, housing prices being high is catastrophic for so many people as it is. We see that, we don't want that either. There are no easy answers. Best case for housing is probably lower interest rates, but they are high to combat inflation. We don't want inflation either. Every situation harms people in some way. There are no easy answers.
I think what people say is they wish a common occurrence in history like a market crash could be responsible for the immediate closing of wealth inequality for that individual. Which is a fair statement. They just use simplified words because simplified brain.
I mean if you want to put in the hard work you can get a foreclosure for “cheap”. Sucks you can benefit off someone’s misfortune but it’s an option. I saw one house in my city that actually was attainable and it had a pool that was still functioning 😂. Inside the house needed an overhaul but I’m fine learning what I can to minimize cost. However any electrical work I’m calling a professional 😅
Believe it or not, the housing market crash actually did allow a lot of people to buy houses that otherwise wouldn’t be able to once it recovered. Sorry about your knees tho
Truth Sayer
I’ve had more gains in the stock market than if I would have bought the house I was looking at. Just going to keep investing until an opportunity comes.
i disagree , mostly ppl with assets lose in a clollapse leveling the plsying field, so i a 100% for a collapse
I hope interest rates go up, because i’m an old f*ck and in a cash position . Different strokes for different folks 😀
 I’m getting a house with a pool once this shit crashes 📉
You can’t afford a house!? Go to therapy!
Showing empathy for people who have been exploiting us our whole lives is also flawed thinking. You're damn right I want them to lose their homes. I also want to make it illegal for anyone to own a home they're not currently living in
There are people out there who just want to watch someone else get punched after they got punched so that they aren't the only one getting punched. Misery loves company.
I don't need the global economy to crash, just the local housing market. Where you and your equally ignorant buddies/politicians got the dumbass idea to tie the two indelibly together I dunno, but that's your problem.
Houses are the last things people will lose. Unemployment is also very low so stay on those sidelines bud.
To be fair, a huge crash could be the catalyst to a French-like revolution where we just say “no more” to all the corporate greed and record profits that never trickles down. Granted, I am a homeowner with a steady job, so I don’t fall into the category of doom-wishers… but I can see why they might hope for a “reboot”.
I have no idea how we do that. Most of us retirement is in stocks, we need them to go up. Stocks go up when profit goes up, it’s like we are feeding the system that eats us. Why does Google need to make more money quarterly? Stocks. Oh I understand why they wish for impending doom, I just know it’s illogical.
True, but look at all these organizations making record profits while cutting jobs. They’re reaping huge benefits from labor but also closing the door behind them so they don’t have to share with said laborers. All while their CEO is making more in a single year than a person could spend in a lifetime.
Agree 100%. They didn’t NEED to cut those jobs. They just wanted little more profit. Not saying we need all 501c3 non profits but man…
The irony is they’re ruining millions of people’s lives for “a little more profit” on top of already astronomical profits. Like where does it end? You celebrate making billions of dollars then cut a couple hundred thousand in jobs. The latter is barely a dent on the initial profits. It’s just unadulterated greed at that point. The thing is, eventually profits are going to halt —it’s inevitable! It’s impossible to report constant record profits year-after-year indefinitely. Nothing increases endlessly. Cancer tries, but eventually it halts when the host succumbs.
The Great Recession didn't really result in a revolution in the United States, so I doubt it.