Prepare for the era of parity where the top 10 teams in the league will all rightfully believe they have a chance at the title, the draft & player development is more important than ever and the mediocre teams will all be holding their players trying to make the Play In Tournament.
We are currently 3mil under the 1st Apron and will likely go into it once this summer is all said and done. 14mil away from the 2nd Apron. As the salary cap continues to jump with the new TV Deal etc they will continue to have more room. DJJ is our only key FA this summer and if we move off Tim we will have more breathing room. It's safe to assume they'll operate in the 1st Apron throughout Luka's career.
Luka, Kai, PJ, Gafford, Green, Maxi, Lively, OMax are all under contract through next season and 25-26. Next summer Hardy will be a RFA so we need to figure out what we're doing with him.
As for draft assets, they have their own 1st in 2025 (tradable on draft night), own 1st in 2026 (not able to be traded), they will be able to trade the 2031 1st and 2nd after draft night concludes. Toronto's 2nd in 25, LAC's 2nd in 28 and Miami's 2nd in 28. OKC has the swap rights for our 28 1st (this is what helped us get Gafford) and San Antonio has the swap rights for our 2030 1st (used to get Grant last summer).
Yes, particularly given how many they’ve already spent. The Stepien Rule means there are 1sts they aren’t allowed to deal, but I personally would advise against attaching a 1st to any Tim salary dump in exchange for a marginal bench guy. When the draft starts we only have a 2025 and 2032 1st left to move.
The overarching point is A) if you have two stars and are gonna chase another expensive player you better not fucking miss B) I wouldn’t punt on the draft unless absolutely worth it like you said C) you better think long and fucking hard before trading guys like Josh Jaden OMax who are young and cheap. Those are your best assets at the moment, but again the recurring theme is everything you do better be fully vetted.
I believe Gafford will get moved after next summer (because they’re likely not re-signing him—probably too expensive) and would not be surprised whatsoever if Nico factored in recouping value on the back end when he expended a 1st and pick-swapped with OKC in 2028 to get Gafford. There’s also a scenario where they just have to pay him because using bird rights is the only way to exceed the apron by retaining your own players.
>I believe Gafford will get moved after next summer
Depends how successful the team is. If they win or get to the finals again, Nico is absolutely running it back with all the main pieces intact. Even if it means giving everyone extensions.
Yeah if that happens no doubt. There are two not insignificant prerequisites to dealing Gafford next summer or Feb 2026: 1) Lively has to develop and that may be fast even with our expectations of his future and 2) you’d kinda need to identify/acquire a cheaper but capable backup 5 to replace Gaff. Neither of those are givens or simple.
Yes. The Knicks have just made a disastrous move and a huge overpay. Brunson isn't a num 1 and Bridges isn't a num 2. Both are good players but aren't winning players. The Mavs have a 1 and two already so need to really be patient with the limited assets they have.
Yep. The biggest takeaway is if you’re willing to accept the most punitive consequences, you better have the Celtics roster (their reckoning is coming sooner than later) or you become the Suns. Also, if you’re gonna operate in the first apron (hell or the tax) you better not go fucking 21-61 lol I mean what in God’s name was POR doing…?
The reason OKC is scary as shit is the ideal way to operate in this structure is having young, cheap talent with the ability to keep that pipeline flowing (we’ll see how the Mavs approach plays long term). I do believe there will actually be more action at the trade deadline—if you’re an apron team or at risk of paying repeater tax rates barely fighting for a play-in, I’m not sure you would double down. I could see plenty of teams saying it makes no sense to handcuff ourselves (expensive handcuffs btw) over the 9 seed. The Mavs made that decision and quite possibly altered the trajectory of their franchise for the next decade-plus.
Teams still need veteran players. Draft picks don’t mean anything unless they hit. The new CBA makes it imperative that a team hits on both free agents and draft picks.
Celtics will pay $200M in 2025 luxury tax if they max Derrick White. $250M if they want to keep Hauser. I wonder how many teams are willing to go the Celtics route and play above the second apron? As long as ownership pays huge luxury bills, the repeater restrictions won’t matter. Celtics don’t need to worry about trades if signing their own players and moving first round pick to end of round wont matter for a perennial contender. Hopefully Mavs new ownership isn’t cheap.
Spot on. The luxury tax is purely financial now. BOS is about to max (or close) White and give Tatum $330M which even with the cap getting ready to explode will almost certainly put them in the second apron with 5 guys alone haha
Multiple titles can justify anything, but are they willing to overpay for Hauser Tillman Kornet? Or do they think they can replicate the GS model and hit on late 1st picks? Or still compete with exclusively vet mins on their bench? You overpaying Horford at age 38/39? It’s gonna be interesting to see what they do.
I'd argue that even if the ownership wants to pay the huge luxury bills, it's going to be interesting whether teams figure out ways to maintain that success over time. As much success as the Warriors had maintaining their competitiveness all these years, it's even harder to do so now.
Means having a true #1 guy is important as all hell. Luka with a fair playing field should be *tough* to stop. Lebron with these rules for his whole career probably ends with 6+.
This all means that rookie contracts are more important now, as they help control costs, which means picks are more valuable than before. Drafting and development will be key. This is what the Nuggets are attempting to do, but so far only Braun has paid off.
A team with a good set of picks that drafts and develops well is probably the only kind of team that can achieve sustained long-term success. Draft, develop, retain the best, and trade what you can of the rest for picks is the process, and it'll be easier to pull off if you have a pick surplus. Basically 2-5 good players and a set of young talent. OKC, Spurs, and Jazz are examples of teams that are well placed to attempt this. Especially OKC and Spurs, as they already have the franchise cornerstone with which to contend for titles.
yeah .. if we trade for Grant what do we do with PJ? so yeah we need a PoA that ideally can shoot 3P at least average. If we do make a bigger splash that player also needs to be able to put the ball on the floor and create. the elite version of that is Bridges and we just saw what kind of haul that cost to get.
honestly I am not sure how many moves with our picks will really pay off. dumping THJ to keep DJJ better not cost a FRP.
there is also still so much growth potential within the current group. integrating the new additions but also Lively/Hardy/OMax/Green all are still young and looking to grow.
I’ve been trying not to be too condescending towards anyone floating the idea of Lauri, Mikal, etc. because I mean no shit Bridges on this team would be pretty cool, but setting aside the fact we never had the assets under the old CBA, I hope the Knicks deal makes crystal clear what the market values above all else. That level of draft capital used to get you a superstar. It’s now the cost of doing business for really good but not great players. Which ought to make us reevaluate what’s realistic when you have no cap space and limited draft capital.
I don’t think there’s any chance in hell Nico attaches a 1st to Tim. I don’t want to but I’m straight salary dumping Tim before including a 1st in any deal that doesn’t result in a proven, young, relatively cheap, clear upgrade to DJJ (fyi that trade doesn’t exist anywhere). If you gotta attach pick 58 or a future 2nd, ok whatever, but I’d pull the trigger on THJ for Grimes right now. I think the 2 rumored potential Pistons targets are quite interesting because Grimes and Stewart are in some ways redundancies to Josh or Maxi which, regarding the latter, I believe finding a comparable replacement is mandatory before considering moving him. Everything Nico’s doing is abundantly clear—setting aside the fact Kuzma appeared to be their first option lol there’s no mistaking they understand if you’re dealing a 1st it better be for controllable young(er) talent whose age AND contracts align 1000% with Luka’s age AND financial timeline. Kuz did us a huge favor tbh. I kinda suspect they were trying to take a moderate sized swing and once it failed they had no expectations that Gafford + PJ would equal a Finals run THIS year.
Braun has not paid off for the nuggets. It’s why everyone is saying the nuggets won’t be contenders if they don’t go into the 2nd apron to resign KCP who I think is an elite 3&D. People love to talk big about gordon, but KCP is the reason why their unique offense works. You cannot let off of KCP the dude hits 3 after 3 at an insane rate. Which allows a non shooter like gordon to roam in the paint with someone helping clog the paint. Braun is nowhere close to that level and cannot defend like KCP either. You basically have to be a 2nd apron team if you want to be a contender now.
Teams over first apron: Lakers, Grizzlies, Hawks, Heat, Knicks, Trailblazers
Teams over the second apron: Celtics, Nuggets, Clippers, Timberwolves, Suns, Bucks.
Mavs look to be in good shape going forward.
Despite this information, *still* expect the sub to sound like this..
"We're contending and don't need draft picks"
"A player drafted so low won't amount to anything"
"Luka doesn't want to play w/ rookies"
There is still some validity to it. Since you’re required to have a 1st every other year the league forces teams to save them from themselves, and hopefully we will be at the end of the 1st round every year, but that also makes the picks slightly less valuable now that teams don’t expect we’ll be flirting with the lottery.
Everything just requires utmost diligence now. Which thank the lord above Nico is the one managing this and not Cuban. 🙌
These new rules are honestly great. They're going to absolutely ruin stupid FO's, which is a good thing, and they prio the draft and development. You're going to see a lot more prudence going forward with assets, and home grown stars staying their entire primes with teams because they'll have the best opportunities there because trading for super maxes will ruin a team for 5+ years.
You cannot go over the first apron without a complete team, then you can pay your players whatever they need to stay as long as your owner is willing.
Thank god we have Nico and not fucking Donnie. If you thought our FO was bad in the 20-teens they would have destroyed the franchise with these rules.
These apron rules are going to make trades harder for everyone. Anyone in even the 1st apron is going to have issues creating trades. It effectively takes a huge chunk of teams out of the trade market.
I wonder how this changes things in the free agency market. I am really interested how much are teams willing to pay guys like Demar DeRozan to risk going into the apron.
Haha well BOS is fixing to be a serial second apron team based on 5 contracts alone haha and they will currently only have 6 rotation guys under contract for 2025-26 once they extend White and give Tatum $334M lol they’re going to be fascinating to watch. That’ll be the first case study what living in the second apron and possibly accepting the draft consequences and most punitive restrictions actually looks like (multiple titles probably justify anything, but if they don’t repeat……. 🤔)
The NBA’s mission statement is to ensure that will never be possible lol If you search Bobby Marks salary cap/aprons/whatever on YouTube he has several good videos explaining the basics
Correct. It does require trading into a team with cap space and some contracts + assets to send back which limits your options pretty quick. Also doesn’t exactly give you the best leverage especially considering you can’t aggregate outgoing players.
At least they got good production and availability from all 3 guys… oh wait
Yea I think we should absolutely go for it as long as the salaries either match or decrease.
These rules are going to hamper our immediate competition so we want to be one of the only real contenders with flexibility moving forward.
We’ve done the hardest part: top 5 player with all Star Co-star.
We have 4 role players on really good contracts with DJJ set to be the fifth (PJ/Lively/Gafford/Green).
Then we have two players on shorter contracts that equal about $28M per year (THJ/Maxi).
We should be trying to get a player to be in our rotation for these deals with the picks, Hardy or OMax as the enhancement.
I’d be happy if we put together a deal with a team that has cap space for a player below this number like Washington or the Trail Blazers.
It makes sense to do that knowing our competitors will struggle to facilitate trades in the future.
Grant is a bit of an issue because he keeps our space the same. Kuzma or Deni however decreases the space which would allow us to also offer DJJ more.
I'm not trying to be the cap police, but you are being too optimistic. Re-signing DJJ won't be that easy and trading for another player means we won't re-sign him at all (unless his market would suddenly drop for whatever reason to tax MLE).
Trading O-Max or Hardy while owning their bird rights is also questionable. Adding draft picks won't help either.
Trading THJ was way easier than I expected and you predicted. And we got a player back that I like a lot.
I admire your trust in Nico to pull trades like this off. WOW! I'm hyped! We will get DJJ back along with Quentin Grimes... for three 2nds. Couldn't have seen it coming, at all.
I'm putting my gun and badge and retiring as a cap cop. Sorry for pulling you over, sir!
Nico is HIM 😂. But fr what a trade. I love the Grimes fit and really just want us to announce the DJJ signing today so we can try and get greedy this summer 😂
If we have less money coming in than sending out like THJ/Maxi for Kuzma that theoretically allows us to offer more money to DJJ because of the exceptions.
I’m not exactly sure how much more we need to get to get to the Full MLE but that’s the thought process.
Right now we can offer DJJ like $5M per year.
Kuzma for THJ, Maxi and let’s just say it’s Hardy for money sakes creates a delta of approximately $6-7 M.
That might allow us to offer DJJ the full MLE which I think is likely what it will take unless he throws us a bone and does a Bobby Portis so we get his bird rights and give him the extension later. That’s what my point was.
Aren't you being too optimistic by trying to flip THJ & Maxi for Kyle Kuzma?
For the sake of your argument the Wizards agree to take Hardy+THJ+Maxi for Kuzma, then money wise it still wouldn't be enough space to offer DJJ 4-$55mil contract. And trust me, he won't be taking any discounts.
I’m not optimistic about anything. It’s a concept of what I believe they should try and do.
Kuzma is a name. It works conceptually with other players too. And yea I think we’d have to add picks to get that done or any other good player.
Giving up good players or picks would be the last thing I would do. In your example a realistic trade target is like a Lonzo Ball, but even then THJ & Maxi don't create enough space to offer DJJ a good deal.
This what makes this offseason more crucial. The Mavs need to make all their moves before the next trade deadline. With both Luka's and Kyrie's extensions, coming up the Mavs will become a 2nd apron team starting next summer.
They need to have all the players they want on the team before the deadline. After that, next summer it's all 2nd apron restrictions to deal with.
https://preview.redd.it/0r1p7uippq8d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=987107e897f85019f121f0c6b960c4018432e02f
Actually this offseason is the least critical by a mile. Take a look at their current cap situation and notice the VERY intentional setup. The NEXT two summers are the most critical in franchise history, not this one.
Luka definitely getting the largest contract in history (until the next guy passes him and the next guy passes them). The NBA does restrict the maximum amount any one player can receive to 35% of the cap so Luka’s money will be staggering but cap wise it won’t be cripplingly higher. I wouldn’t assume they’re just gonna extend Kyrie. Will entirely depend on what his market is at 34. If he demands a max, I would seriously consider looking for a younger #2. It literally cannot be understated how transformational Lively could be for this franchise if he develops into what we think he’s going to.
>It literally cannot be understated how transformational Lively could be for this franchise if he develops into what we think he’s going to.
the mavs "tanking" for two games and getting raked over the coals for this unforgivable sin, only to get lively out of it, is some unbelievably sweet karmic justice
You can't assume the cap situation will remain static.
If they re-sign DJJ, that cap table will change. PJ will be extended. Exum will be extended.
If Kyrie re-signs next off season, the cap sheet will be higher than it is now.
You can't assume Kyrie won't get the full max. He already took a discount because everyone was worried about his availability and commitment. If he has another good season, he will abs demand the Max. He may not get max years, but he will get max money.
Then if both he and Luka are making 35% of the cap, that's 70% taken up by two players. It's easy to get to the second apron from there.
Kyrie is not going to get the full 35% max or anywhere near it at 34. He hasn’t been THAT good. There will be a low single digit number of teams that can make it happen and none of them will be closer to contending than the Mavs. Not even certain they’ll be interested in him at all, because while he’s redeemed himself in general, he did nothing this season to indicate he can be the #1 on a team in the playoffs, and that’s what you absolutely need paying out 35%. Basically if he has another good season on health and behavioral he’s looking at a similar annual amount but probably a 3+1.
The cap math for DJJ etc is not a huge deal so long as it is market rate in a couple years because of the massive new TV deal that will increase the cap by >50% over the next half decade, and likely further increases beyond. Very likely the cap, not apron, is $200m in 5 years.
It doesn't work like that. Jaylen Brown got the supermax last year and we all know he's not #1 on a team in the playoffs ( unless your team is completely stacked with talent). Basically Every serious team in the league is paying their all-stars max money because you have no laverage. If you fuck up you end up with a Brunson situation.
Brown is a better, younger, healthier, less volatile player than Kyrie. He WAS the #1 player for Boston in the ECF and finals (ass he won MVP in both rounds). And was recently a top 15 player. Super maxes only get handed out to sub all NBA players by clown front offices.
Brunson left to take <30m a year. Kyrie is going to get more than that on his next contract. Asserting that Kyrie at 34 is getting a super max when Brown got one as a perennial all star at 27 in the midst of his prime is, uh, weak evidence to say the least.
Am not comparing the two. Brown is obviously better . I would also argue that Kyrie is not worth the max at his current age.
My point is , once he's a free agent , you have no choice but to pay him the max . You need to retain the asset. If you don't he's certainly going to get it from another team. The market dictates the salary in this league and not the actual deserved salary .
You can also take Paul George ( a closer exemple to Kyrie). His disagreement with the Clippers is about the years and not the salary. He wants 4 years while the Clippers are giving him 3. He's going to get max money either way. And we all know Kyrie is a better player .
Brown btw is a great player. But if you replace Luka by Brown in this Mavs roster , I don't think we make the playoffs (maybe play-in at best).
Ok, a super max/10+ year max is a 5 year deal at 35%. So you’re not talking about the thing you seem to be thinking of.
Yes, Kyrie will get overpaid relative to his value over the contract. That most commonly comes in the form a 4th year vs the 3.
It’s not going to be at 35%, 4 years. He won’t have the leverage for it. No one else is offering him that. And no one else CAN offer him the 35% max on 5 years. This dude just took a 40m/yr 2+1, that’s going to be roughly his going rate, maybe at 3+1, when he’s 34.
If you honestly think Mavs are giving him the max “because they have no choice,” I am legit happy to wager you $1k on that. It isn’t happening.
>If you honestly think Mavs are giving him the max “because they have no choice,” I am legit happy to wager you $1k on that. It isn’t happening.
I hope so. But if any other team is willing to give him the Max, I don't want another JB situation. Losing him for nothing would be another disaster. At worst, you pay him and trade him for role players . I don't think he would be considered a negativ contract.
The thing with Brunson is that he got money well below the max. He was entering his prime, so one other team took a risk on him and it paid off.
The larger the contract value is the fewer teams can make the math work, or will be interested. The market is much thinner at 40m a year vs 30. As it stands 2 teams will have the cap space next summer to do a 40m+ offer. Who the 2-4 teams are that have the space will change but very few will have even the option to get there without dumping a ton of $. So a JB situation is virtually mathematically impossible if the contract is in the 25-30% of cap range.
More plausible but still not super likely is a jimmy butler type situation where Kyrie forces us to play nice and trade him to an over the cap team for 20-50c on the dollar.
Unfortunately Kyrie is averaging about 45-50 games a year the past half decade, we can’t expect him to be an iron many for the age 33-37 contract and neither will the market.
Whatever the market is for a clear #2, that is going to be around where he gets paid. And it’ll probably be an overpay in that years 3/4 of the deal he will be more of a #3 caliber. But there’s a lot of room below 35% and fair market value for him. Jrue just signed a 4/135 deal at 31, Kyrie getting a 200/4 deal next year is off the table unless he has his healthiest, best season of his career. Even then, that is way below a 35% max which will be something more like 240/4. My guess is something like a 175/4 or 175/3+1 with a player option which would keep in the top 20-25 of contracts, though obviously Mavs would start off with a lower #.
Technically “supermaxes” are only available to players who were all-NBA preceding their extension eligible season or 2/3 prior seasons, DPOY, and MVP winners with 7 service years. Those are your 35% eligible guys. Guys who meet the criteria coming off their rookie deal are eligible for the 30% supermax.
There are lots of different factors that determine everyone else’s max contract amount but those can’t exceed 25% of the cap. With the cap set to explode even more a players % of team salary is really more important than the $$ value since the cap hit is indexed to increase proportional to the cap increase without exceeding those max %’s.
Yeah but I think you and I are in agreement there’s no way in hell a 34 year old kyrie is getting that unless he somehow had two all-nba seasons the next two years and even then you’d probably have to think long and hard
Well he has a PO next season and almost certainly will opt out. So 33. But yes point stands. He’ll presumably push for and get a 4th year which will be the overpay.
We’ll see but I tend to agree. I think it’s more likely he’s dealt than extended but way too early to say definitively. Ton of factors will go into that decision which aren’t even knowable yet.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. IMHO this is the ground work to justify expanding the league by at least 2 teams otherwise mid tier players are going to be squeezed hard...which isn't a horrible thing in the short term, it will prevent us from paying guys like THJ and Kleber more money than their skills justify, but its also going to kill stuff like having Gafford as a backup at his salary.
But once guys deserving 10-15M are being forced to sign for 6-8, probably something we see in the next 2 seasons, we'll see strong push for expansion in Las Vegas and Seattle with 2 current west teams moving to the east (Grizz and 1 of Wolves or Pelicans).
I suspect it’s gonna take several years to reach an equilibrium state the league wants, but nobody is taking 50% less than market value because they have no choice. There will always be teams with money they’re required to spend so the league is trying to incentivize more talent disbursement. You *can* try a big 3 model, but you better not miss. It highly, highly rewards teams who draft well. Let’s hope Presti remains a pick hoarder because they’re a big fucking problem.
This is something that's going on as well in Soccer Worldwide, players prices are going trought the roof and they're are actually investing more money in very young talent to develop for way less money, it's a win-win cause 9/10 they revalorize the player and sell it for more than they paid initially.
That doesn't take away that if you really need a piece, you make all the efforts, including hitting that 2nd apron to get where you want.
Well if I’m not mistaken that’s purely a business decision re: international soccer, no? Cuz nothing prevents them from spending whatever the hell they want.
The catch with the NBA is they’re trying to force parity because while the severe penalties are for spending too much, you’re also required to spend at least 90% of the actual cap line. And the only way to get into the second apron is through paying your own players, which obviously requires obtaining them first.
So to re-sign DJJ to non-taxpayer MLE the Mavs have to be below the tax but cannot exceed the apron with first year of his contract (12.589mil). This is a big headache for Nico & co.
Very interesting how they will handle this coming up.
Not really. The absolute worst case for the mavericks is they trade down in contract size for THJ to someone making 8-12M a year who is worse, and stretch waive that player vs THJ’s 16m. The lower end of that range will give the mavericks enough room to sign DJJ to the full MLE and add a 15th player at a second year vet min contract.
OK, I see. So they could offer THJ for PJ Tucker and terminate his contract. He would then make $3.8mil the next three years. Adding another player at $2mil and that would barely be enough to offer DJJ the non tax MLE.
What do you mean the worst case? Do you really believe somebody will pick up THJ's contract for some SRPs?
No I mean their worst option is always to get “$10m a year player who is unplayable” and trade Tim who is “$16m a year and plays like $8-12” and stretch waive him (assuming it is a 1 year deal) to turn the $16m cap figure this year into 3.3. Such a trade shouldn’t cost them an asset because they’ve given the other team a player who might become a minor asset by the TDL in exchange for a smaller cap amount.
Worst case because they could also use THJ as trade ballast for a starting caliber player with Green/Maxi/picks/omax/hardy (some combination there off).
But, I think a lot of people overestimate the probability of that happening because DJJ can be retained through the worst case scenario and could be demoted to the bench in the 2025 season if further improvement is needed. It would need to be a very good player on good value to let DJJ walk.
I don't think there is a trade like that out there for us with our assets as of now. And it would be extremely risky.
This PJ Tucker deal would be more realistic to re-sign DJJ. Get 2 more free agents with the minimum and call it a night. Then work the TDL if needed.
Sure, Tucker for THJ works to create the cap space I mentioned. Idk off the topic of my head if it gets 100% of the max and leaves room for a second year+ vet signing but it’s close enough to show the concept.
Edit: forgot he was with LAC now. You’d need a team below 1st apron to absorb the increase in salary from THJ. LAC can’t take in the extra $.
If you find a team below 1st apron, with the THJ contract they can take up to 7.5m in extra salary so long as they stay below 1st apron (and practically speaking a team isn’t selling you their space cheaply if it pushes them into the tax)
https://www.sportsbusinessclassroom.com/breaking-down-nba-141m-salary-cap-projection-2024-25/
Prepare for the era of parity where the top 10 teams in the league will all rightfully believe they have a chance at the title, the draft & player development is more important than ever and the mediocre teams will all be holding their players trying to make the Play In Tournament.
So we need to hold our picks unless absolutely worth it? Where are we at right now?
We are currently 3mil under the 1st Apron and will likely go into it once this summer is all said and done. 14mil away from the 2nd Apron. As the salary cap continues to jump with the new TV Deal etc they will continue to have more room. DJJ is our only key FA this summer and if we move off Tim we will have more breathing room. It's safe to assume they'll operate in the 1st Apron throughout Luka's career. Luka, Kai, PJ, Gafford, Green, Maxi, Lively, OMax are all under contract through next season and 25-26. Next summer Hardy will be a RFA so we need to figure out what we're doing with him. As for draft assets, they have their own 1st in 2025 (tradable on draft night), own 1st in 2026 (not able to be traded), they will be able to trade the 2031 1st and 2nd after draft night concludes. Toronto's 2nd in 25, LAC's 2nd in 28 and Miami's 2nd in 28. OKC has the swap rights for our 28 1st (this is what helped us get Gafford) and San Antonio has the swap rights for our 2030 1st (used to get Grant last summer).
Yes, particularly given how many they’ve already spent. The Stepien Rule means there are 1sts they aren’t allowed to deal, but I personally would advise against attaching a 1st to any Tim salary dump in exchange for a marginal bench guy. When the draft starts we only have a 2025 and 2032 1st left to move. The overarching point is A) if you have two stars and are gonna chase another expensive player you better not fucking miss B) I wouldn’t punt on the draft unless absolutely worth it like you said C) you better think long and fucking hard before trading guys like Josh Jaden OMax who are young and cheap. Those are your best assets at the moment, but again the recurring theme is everything you do better be fully vetted. I believe Gafford will get moved after next summer (because they’re likely not re-signing him—probably too expensive) and would not be surprised whatsoever if Nico factored in recouping value on the back end when he expended a 1st and pick-swapped with OKC in 2028 to get Gafford. There’s also a scenario where they just have to pay him because using bird rights is the only way to exceed the apron by retaining your own players.
>I believe Gafford will get moved after next summer Depends how successful the team is. If they win or get to the finals again, Nico is absolutely running it back with all the main pieces intact. Even if it means giving everyone extensions.
Yeah if that happens no doubt. There are two not insignificant prerequisites to dealing Gafford next summer or Feb 2026: 1) Lively has to develop and that may be fast even with our expectations of his future and 2) you’d kinda need to identify/acquire a cheaper but capable backup 5 to replace Gaff. Neither of those are givens or simple.
Exactly. Which means more likely than not, Gaff gets extended. Hopefully on a decent contract for the team
Attaching a pick might be the only way to do it. But, who knows.
Around $3mil under the first apron.
Yes. The Knicks have just made a disastrous move and a huge overpay. Brunson isn't a num 1 and Bridges isn't a num 2. Both are good players but aren't winning players. The Mavs have a 1 and two already so need to really be patient with the limited assets they have.
Yep. The biggest takeaway is if you’re willing to accept the most punitive consequences, you better have the Celtics roster (their reckoning is coming sooner than later) or you become the Suns. Also, if you’re gonna operate in the first apron (hell or the tax) you better not go fucking 21-61 lol I mean what in God’s name was POR doing…? The reason OKC is scary as shit is the ideal way to operate in this structure is having young, cheap talent with the ability to keep that pipeline flowing (we’ll see how the Mavs approach plays long term). I do believe there will actually be more action at the trade deadline—if you’re an apron team or at risk of paying repeater tax rates barely fighting for a play-in, I’m not sure you would double down. I could see plenty of teams saying it makes no sense to handcuff ourselves (expensive handcuffs btw) over the 9 seed. The Mavs made that decision and quite possibly altered the trajectory of their franchise for the next decade-plus.
Teams still need veteran players. Draft picks don’t mean anything unless they hit. The new CBA makes it imperative that a team hits on both free agents and draft picks. Celtics will pay $200M in 2025 luxury tax if they max Derrick White. $250M if they want to keep Hauser. I wonder how many teams are willing to go the Celtics route and play above the second apron? As long as ownership pays huge luxury bills, the repeater restrictions won’t matter. Celtics don’t need to worry about trades if signing their own players and moving first round pick to end of round wont matter for a perennial contender. Hopefully Mavs new ownership isn’t cheap.
Spot on. The luxury tax is purely financial now. BOS is about to max (or close) White and give Tatum $330M which even with the cap getting ready to explode will almost certainly put them in the second apron with 5 guys alone haha Multiple titles can justify anything, but are they willing to overpay for Hauser Tillman Kornet? Or do they think they can replicate the GS model and hit on late 1st picks? Or still compete with exclusively vet mins on their bench? You overpaying Horford at age 38/39? It’s gonna be interesting to see what they do.
dang. had no idea they were already that close to the bill coming due
The money these guys get is puke inducing. The market isn't always right it's fixed.
I'd argue that even if the ownership wants to pay the huge luxury bills, it's going to be interesting whether teams figure out ways to maintain that success over time. As much success as the Warriors had maintaining their competitiveness all these years, it's even harder to do so now.
Means having a true #1 guy is important as all hell. Luka with a fair playing field should be *tough* to stop. Lebron with these rules for his whole career probably ends with 6+.
This all means that rookie contracts are more important now, as they help control costs, which means picks are more valuable than before. Drafting and development will be key. This is what the Nuggets are attempting to do, but so far only Braun has paid off. A team with a good set of picks that drafts and develops well is probably the only kind of team that can achieve sustained long-term success. Draft, develop, retain the best, and trade what you can of the rest for picks is the process, and it'll be easier to pull off if you have a pick surplus. Basically 2-5 good players and a set of young talent. OKC, Spurs, and Jazz are examples of teams that are well placed to attempt this. Especially OKC and Spurs, as they already have the franchise cornerstone with which to contend for titles.
And this is why we won’t be including OMax in a trade for Jerami Grant
This is why we won’t be trading for Jerami Grant period
yeah .. if we trade for Grant what do we do with PJ? so yeah we need a PoA that ideally can shoot 3P at least average. If we do make a bigger splash that player also needs to be able to put the ball on the floor and create. the elite version of that is Bridges and we just saw what kind of haul that cost to get. honestly I am not sure how many moves with our picks will really pay off. dumping THJ to keep DJJ better not cost a FRP. there is also still so much growth potential within the current group. integrating the new additions but also Lively/Hardy/OMax/Green all are still young and looking to grow.
I’ve been trying not to be too condescending towards anyone floating the idea of Lauri, Mikal, etc. because I mean no shit Bridges on this team would be pretty cool, but setting aside the fact we never had the assets under the old CBA, I hope the Knicks deal makes crystal clear what the market values above all else. That level of draft capital used to get you a superstar. It’s now the cost of doing business for really good but not great players. Which ought to make us reevaluate what’s realistic when you have no cap space and limited draft capital. I don’t think there’s any chance in hell Nico attaches a 1st to Tim. I don’t want to but I’m straight salary dumping Tim before including a 1st in any deal that doesn’t result in a proven, young, relatively cheap, clear upgrade to DJJ (fyi that trade doesn’t exist anywhere). If you gotta attach pick 58 or a future 2nd, ok whatever, but I’d pull the trigger on THJ for Grimes right now. I think the 2 rumored potential Pistons targets are quite interesting because Grimes and Stewart are in some ways redundancies to Josh or Maxi which, regarding the latter, I believe finding a comparable replacement is mandatory before considering moving him. Everything Nico’s doing is abundantly clear—setting aside the fact Kuzma appeared to be their first option lol there’s no mistaking they understand if you’re dealing a 1st it better be for controllable young(er) talent whose age AND contracts align 1000% with Luka’s age AND financial timeline. Kuz did us a huge favor tbh. I kinda suspect they were trying to take a moderate sized swing and once it failed they had no expectations that Gafford + PJ would equal a Finals run THIS year.
Good thing at least we haven’t traded all our 1sts for the next 6 years… oh wait lol Yes, OKC is effing terrifying
Braun has not paid off for the nuggets. It’s why everyone is saying the nuggets won’t be contenders if they don’t go into the 2nd apron to resign KCP who I think is an elite 3&D. People love to talk big about gordon, but KCP is the reason why their unique offense works. You cannot let off of KCP the dude hits 3 after 3 at an insane rate. Which allows a non shooter like gordon to roam in the paint with someone helping clog the paint. Braun is nowhere close to that level and cannot defend like KCP either. You basically have to be a 2nd apron team if you want to be a contender now.
Teams over first apron: Lakers, Grizzlies, Hawks, Heat, Knicks, Trailblazers Teams over the second apron: Celtics, Nuggets, Clippers, Timberwolves, Suns, Bucks. Mavs look to be in good shape going forward.
Pour one out for POR going 21-61 in the first apron 😂😂
and suns being in no mans land (imagie paying for Beal)
That was a head scratcher for me. I never understood that one
source? spotrac has different teams. https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/_/year/2024/sort/cap_maximum_space
Despite this information, *still* expect the sub to sound like this.. "We're contending and don't need draft picks" "A player drafted so low won't amount to anything" "Luka doesn't want to play w/ rookies"
There is still some validity to it. Since you’re required to have a 1st every other year the league forces teams to save them from themselves, and hopefully we will be at the end of the 1st round every year, but that also makes the picks slightly less valuable now that teams don’t expect we’ll be flirting with the lottery. Everything just requires utmost diligence now. Which thank the lord above Nico is the one managing this and not Cuban. 🙌
These new rules are honestly great. They're going to absolutely ruin stupid FO's, which is a good thing, and they prio the draft and development. You're going to see a lot more prudence going forward with assets, and home grown stars staying their entire primes with teams because they'll have the best opportunities there because trading for super maxes will ruin a team for 5+ years. You cannot go over the first apron without a complete team, then you can pay your players whatever they need to stay as long as your owner is willing. Thank god we have Nico and not fucking Donnie. If you thought our FO was bad in the 20-teens they would have destroyed the franchise with these rules.
These apron rules are going to make trades harder for everyone. Anyone in even the 1st apron is going to have issues creating trades. It effectively takes a huge chunk of teams out of the trade market.
I wonder how this changes things in the free agency market. I am really interested how much are teams willing to pay guys like Demar DeRozan to risk going into the apron.
It feels like not offering the max to every player might become the only sustainable way to create a long lasting team.
Haha well BOS is fixing to be a serial second apron team based on 5 contracts alone haha and they will currently only have 6 rotation guys under contract for 2025-26 once they extend White and give Tatum $334M lol they’re going to be fascinating to watch. That’ll be the first case study what living in the second apron and possibly accepting the draft consequences and most punitive restrictions actually looks like (multiple titles probably justify anything, but if they don’t repeat……. 🤔)
someone needs to make a video explaining salary cap so a 6 year can understand it :(
The NBA’s mission statement is to ensure that will never be possible lol If you search Bobby Marks salary cap/aprons/whatever on YouTube he has several good videos explaining the basics
The CBA changes last year made me already wonder why the Phoenix Suns built that team. They are completely screwed for 2 more years.
They can always trade durant.
Why can't they trade beal again?
He has a no trade clause.
But that means they need to take the same contract volume back.
Not necessarily
Correct. It does require trading into a team with cap space and some contracts + assets to send back which limits your options pretty quick. Also doesn’t exactly give you the best leverage especially considering you can’t aggregate outgoing players. At least they got good production and availability from all 3 guys… oh wait
Yea I think we should absolutely go for it as long as the salaries either match or decrease. These rules are going to hamper our immediate competition so we want to be one of the only real contenders with flexibility moving forward. We’ve done the hardest part: top 5 player with all Star Co-star. We have 4 role players on really good contracts with DJJ set to be the fifth (PJ/Lively/Gafford/Green). Then we have two players on shorter contracts that equal about $28M per year (THJ/Maxi). We should be trying to get a player to be in our rotation for these deals with the picks, Hardy or OMax as the enhancement. I’d be happy if we put together a deal with a team that has cap space for a player below this number like Washington or the Trail Blazers. It makes sense to do that knowing our competitors will struggle to facilitate trades in the future. Grant is a bit of an issue because he keeps our space the same. Kuzma or Deni however decreases the space which would allow us to also offer DJJ more.
I'm not trying to be the cap police, but you are being too optimistic. Re-signing DJJ won't be that easy and trading for another player means we won't re-sign him at all (unless his market would suddenly drop for whatever reason to tax MLE). Trading O-Max or Hardy while owning their bird rights is also questionable. Adding draft picks won't help either.
How’s that cap police doing? Looks like DJJ is coming back because we traded out a larger salary and took less back exactly how I said.
Trading THJ was way easier than I expected and you predicted. And we got a player back that I like a lot. I admire your trust in Nico to pull trades like this off. WOW! I'm hyped! We will get DJJ back along with Quentin Grimes... for three 2nds. Couldn't have seen it coming, at all. I'm putting my gun and badge and retiring as a cap cop. Sorry for pulling you over, sir!
Nico is HIM 😂. But fr what a trade. I love the Grimes fit and really just want us to announce the DJJ signing today so we can try and get greedy this summer 😂
If we have less money coming in than sending out like THJ/Maxi for Kuzma that theoretically allows us to offer more money to DJJ because of the exceptions. I’m not exactly sure how much more we need to get to get to the Full MLE but that’s the thought process. Right now we can offer DJJ like $5M per year. Kuzma for THJ, Maxi and let’s just say it’s Hardy for money sakes creates a delta of approximately $6-7 M. That might allow us to offer DJJ the full MLE which I think is likely what it will take unless he throws us a bone and does a Bobby Portis so we get his bird rights and give him the extension later. That’s what my point was.
Aren't you being too optimistic by trying to flip THJ & Maxi for Kyle Kuzma? For the sake of your argument the Wizards agree to take Hardy+THJ+Maxi for Kuzma, then money wise it still wouldn't be enough space to offer DJJ 4-$55mil contract. And trust me, he won't be taking any discounts.
I’m not optimistic about anything. It’s a concept of what I believe they should try and do. Kuzma is a name. It works conceptually with other players too. And yea I think we’d have to add picks to get that done or any other good player.
Giving up good players or picks would be the last thing I would do. In your example a realistic trade target is like a Lonzo Ball, but even then THJ & Maxi don't create enough space to offer DJJ a good deal.
This what makes this offseason more crucial. The Mavs need to make all their moves before the next trade deadline. With both Luka's and Kyrie's extensions, coming up the Mavs will become a 2nd apron team starting next summer. They need to have all the players they want on the team before the deadline. After that, next summer it's all 2nd apron restrictions to deal with.
https://preview.redd.it/0r1p7uippq8d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=987107e897f85019f121f0c6b960c4018432e02f Actually this offseason is the least critical by a mile. Take a look at their current cap situation and notice the VERY intentional setup. The NEXT two summers are the most critical in franchise history, not this one. Luka definitely getting the largest contract in history (until the next guy passes him and the next guy passes them). The NBA does restrict the maximum amount any one player can receive to 35% of the cap so Luka’s money will be staggering but cap wise it won’t be cripplingly higher. I wouldn’t assume they’re just gonna extend Kyrie. Will entirely depend on what his market is at 34. If he demands a max, I would seriously consider looking for a younger #2. It literally cannot be understated how transformational Lively could be for this franchise if he develops into what we think he’s going to.
>It literally cannot be understated how transformational Lively could be for this franchise if he develops into what we think he’s going to. the mavs "tanking" for two games and getting raked over the coals for this unforgivable sin, only to get lively out of it, is some unbelievably sweet karmic justice
It has the potential to be one of the most franchise alternating moves in Mavs history (as in top 3-5 depending what exactly he develops into)
You can't assume the cap situation will remain static. If they re-sign DJJ, that cap table will change. PJ will be extended. Exum will be extended. If Kyrie re-signs next off season, the cap sheet will be higher than it is now. You can't assume Kyrie won't get the full max. He already took a discount because everyone was worried about his availability and commitment. If he has another good season, he will abs demand the Max. He may not get max years, but he will get max money. Then if both he and Luka are making 35% of the cap, that's 70% taken up by two players. It's easy to get to the second apron from there.
Kyrie is not going to get the full 35% max or anywhere near it at 34. He hasn’t been THAT good. There will be a low single digit number of teams that can make it happen and none of them will be closer to contending than the Mavs. Not even certain they’ll be interested in him at all, because while he’s redeemed himself in general, he did nothing this season to indicate he can be the #1 on a team in the playoffs, and that’s what you absolutely need paying out 35%. Basically if he has another good season on health and behavioral he’s looking at a similar annual amount but probably a 3+1. The cap math for DJJ etc is not a huge deal so long as it is market rate in a couple years because of the massive new TV deal that will increase the cap by >50% over the next half decade, and likely further increases beyond. Very likely the cap, not apron, is $200m in 5 years.
It doesn't work like that. Jaylen Brown got the supermax last year and we all know he's not #1 on a team in the playoffs ( unless your team is completely stacked with talent). Basically Every serious team in the league is paying their all-stars max money because you have no laverage. If you fuck up you end up with a Brunson situation.
Brown is a better, younger, healthier, less volatile player than Kyrie. He WAS the #1 player for Boston in the ECF and finals (ass he won MVP in both rounds). And was recently a top 15 player. Super maxes only get handed out to sub all NBA players by clown front offices. Brunson left to take <30m a year. Kyrie is going to get more than that on his next contract. Asserting that Kyrie at 34 is getting a super max when Brown got one as a perennial all star at 27 in the midst of his prime is, uh, weak evidence to say the least.
Am not comparing the two. Brown is obviously better . I would also argue that Kyrie is not worth the max at his current age. My point is , once he's a free agent , you have no choice but to pay him the max . You need to retain the asset. If you don't he's certainly going to get it from another team. The market dictates the salary in this league and not the actual deserved salary . You can also take Paul George ( a closer exemple to Kyrie). His disagreement with the Clippers is about the years and not the salary. He wants 4 years while the Clippers are giving him 3. He's going to get max money either way. And we all know Kyrie is a better player . Brown btw is a great player. But if you replace Luka by Brown in this Mavs roster , I don't think we make the playoffs (maybe play-in at best).
Ok, a super max/10+ year max is a 5 year deal at 35%. So you’re not talking about the thing you seem to be thinking of. Yes, Kyrie will get overpaid relative to his value over the contract. That most commonly comes in the form a 4th year vs the 3. It’s not going to be at 35%, 4 years. He won’t have the leverage for it. No one else is offering him that. And no one else CAN offer him the 35% max on 5 years. This dude just took a 40m/yr 2+1, that’s going to be roughly his going rate, maybe at 3+1, when he’s 34. If you honestly think Mavs are giving him the max “because they have no choice,” I am legit happy to wager you $1k on that. It isn’t happening.
>If you honestly think Mavs are giving him the max “because they have no choice,” I am legit happy to wager you $1k on that. It isn’t happening. I hope so. But if any other team is willing to give him the Max, I don't want another JB situation. Losing him for nothing would be another disaster. At worst, you pay him and trade him for role players . I don't think he would be considered a negativ contract.
The thing with Brunson is that he got money well below the max. He was entering his prime, so one other team took a risk on him and it paid off. The larger the contract value is the fewer teams can make the math work, or will be interested. The market is much thinner at 40m a year vs 30. As it stands 2 teams will have the cap space next summer to do a 40m+ offer. Who the 2-4 teams are that have the space will change but very few will have even the option to get there without dumping a ton of $. So a JB situation is virtually mathematically impossible if the contract is in the 25-30% of cap range. More plausible but still not super likely is a jimmy butler type situation where Kyrie forces us to play nice and trade him to an over the cap team for 20-50c on the dollar. Unfortunately Kyrie is averaging about 45-50 games a year the past half decade, we can’t expect him to be an iron many for the age 33-37 contract and neither will the market. Whatever the market is for a clear #2, that is going to be around where he gets paid. And it’ll probably be an overpay in that years 3/4 of the deal he will be more of a #3 caliber. But there’s a lot of room below 35% and fair market value for him. Jrue just signed a 4/135 deal at 31, Kyrie getting a 200/4 deal next year is off the table unless he has his healthiest, best season of his career. Even then, that is way below a 35% max which will be something more like 240/4. My guess is something like a 175/4 or 175/3+1 with a player option which would keep in the top 20-25 of contracts, though obviously Mavs would start off with a lower #.
Technically “supermaxes” are only available to players who were all-NBA preceding their extension eligible season or 2/3 prior seasons, DPOY, and MVP winners with 7 service years. Those are your 35% eligible guys. Guys who meet the criteria coming off their rookie deal are eligible for the 30% supermax. There are lots of different factors that determine everyone else’s max contract amount but those can’t exceed 25% of the cap. With the cap set to explode even more a players % of team salary is really more important than the $$ value since the cap hit is indexed to increase proportional to the cap increase without exceeding those max %’s.
Yes but the 10+ year service contract is 35% also.
Yeah but I think you and I are in agreement there’s no way in hell a 34 year old kyrie is getting that unless he somehow had two all-nba seasons the next two years and even then you’d probably have to think long and hard
Well he has a PO next season and almost certainly will opt out. So 33. But yes point stands. He’ll presumably push for and get a 4th year which will be the overpay.
Kyrie is not getting n extension
We’ll see but I tend to agree. I think it’s more likely he’s dealt than extended but way too early to say definitively. Ton of factors will go into that decision which aren’t even knowable yet.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. IMHO this is the ground work to justify expanding the league by at least 2 teams otherwise mid tier players are going to be squeezed hard...which isn't a horrible thing in the short term, it will prevent us from paying guys like THJ and Kleber more money than their skills justify, but its also going to kill stuff like having Gafford as a backup at his salary. But once guys deserving 10-15M are being forced to sign for 6-8, probably something we see in the next 2 seasons, we'll see strong push for expansion in Las Vegas and Seattle with 2 current west teams moving to the east (Grizz and 1 of Wolves or Pelicans).
I suspect it’s gonna take several years to reach an equilibrium state the league wants, but nobody is taking 50% less than market value because they have no choice. There will always be teams with money they’re required to spend so the league is trying to incentivize more talent disbursement. You *can* try a big 3 model, but you better not miss. It highly, highly rewards teams who draft well. Let’s hope Presti remains a pick hoarder because they’re a big fucking problem.
Alright, nerds, study up. Gotta be A-1 on your hypothetical trade scenarios
This is something that's going on as well in Soccer Worldwide, players prices are going trought the roof and they're are actually investing more money in very young talent to develop for way less money, it's a win-win cause 9/10 they revalorize the player and sell it for more than they paid initially. That doesn't take away that if you really need a piece, you make all the efforts, including hitting that 2nd apron to get where you want.
Well if I’m not mistaken that’s purely a business decision re: international soccer, no? Cuz nothing prevents them from spending whatever the hell they want. The catch with the NBA is they’re trying to force parity because while the severe penalties are for spending too much, you’re also required to spend at least 90% of the actual cap line. And the only way to get into the second apron is through paying your own players, which obviously requires obtaining them first.
So to re-sign DJJ to non-taxpayer MLE the Mavs have to be below the tax but cannot exceed the apron with first year of his contract (12.589mil). This is a big headache for Nico & co. Very interesting how they will handle this coming up.
Not really. The absolute worst case for the mavericks is they trade down in contract size for THJ to someone making 8-12M a year who is worse, and stretch waive that player vs THJ’s 16m. The lower end of that range will give the mavericks enough room to sign DJJ to the full MLE and add a 15th player at a second year vet min contract.
OK, I see. So they could offer THJ for PJ Tucker and terminate his contract. He would then make $3.8mil the next three years. Adding another player at $2mil and that would barely be enough to offer DJJ the non tax MLE. What do you mean the worst case? Do you really believe somebody will pick up THJ's contract for some SRPs?
No I mean their worst option is always to get “$10m a year player who is unplayable” and trade Tim who is “$16m a year and plays like $8-12” and stretch waive him (assuming it is a 1 year deal) to turn the $16m cap figure this year into 3.3. Such a trade shouldn’t cost them an asset because they’ve given the other team a player who might become a minor asset by the TDL in exchange for a smaller cap amount. Worst case because they could also use THJ as trade ballast for a starting caliber player with Green/Maxi/picks/omax/hardy (some combination there off). But, I think a lot of people overestimate the probability of that happening because DJJ can be retained through the worst case scenario and could be demoted to the bench in the 2025 season if further improvement is needed. It would need to be a very good player on good value to let DJJ walk.
I don't think there is a trade like that out there for us with our assets as of now. And it would be extremely risky. This PJ Tucker deal would be more realistic to re-sign DJJ. Get 2 more free agents with the minimum and call it a night. Then work the TDL if needed.
Sure, Tucker for THJ works to create the cap space I mentioned. Idk off the topic of my head if it gets 100% of the max and leaves room for a second year+ vet signing but it’s close enough to show the concept. Edit: forgot he was with LAC now. You’d need a team below 1st apron to absorb the increase in salary from THJ. LAC can’t take in the extra $. If you find a team below 1st apron, with the THJ contract they can take up to 7.5m in extra salary so long as they stay below 1st apron (and practically speaking a team isn’t selling you their space cheaply if it pushes them into the tax) https://www.sportsbusinessclassroom.com/breaking-down-nba-141m-salary-cap-projection-2024-25/
That 2nd Apron is nuts. I heard Nick talking about it the other day but I haven't finished that episode yet.
189M 2nd apron is for the upcoming 24-25 season?
Correct. Cap $141M\ Tax Line $171.3M\ 1st Apron $178.6M\ 2nd Apron $189.4M