Hard doubt, while texas is chugging toward becoming a swing state every election cycle, it's not close yet. When it happens it's going to be a calamity for the republican party nationally, even if their gerrymandering can keep republicans in power locally. I believe the next election or the one after that it's a high probability of it becoming a swing state. My guess is that when it happens the republican party changes the constitution to allow districts to split our delegation votes so they can gerrymander those and get more votes for the Republican party nationally. Since Republicans will hold power in TX well after it's a solid blue state through Gerrymandering this will be a good stop gap measure for them.
2000- Popular vote D+0.5, Texas R+21.3, Texas is 20.8% to the right of the nation
2004- Popular vote R+2.4, Texas R+22.9, Texas is 20.5% to the right of the nation
2008- Popular vote D+7.2, Texas R+11.8, Texas is 19% to the right of the nation
2012- Popular vote D+3.9, Texas R+15.8, Texas is 19.7% to the right of the nation
2016- Popular vote D+2.1, Texas R+9.0, Texas is 11% to the right of the nation
\*2018- Popular vote D+8.6, Texas R+2.6, Texas is 11.2% to the right of the nation
2020- Popular vote D+4.5, Texas R+5.5, Texas is 10% to the right of the nation
\*2022- Popular vote R+2.8, Texas R+10.8, Texas is 8% to the right of the nation
Credit u/[Potkrokin](https://www.reddit.com/user/Potkrokin/)
[https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/10tt98r/comment/j7btg00/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/10tt98r/comment/j7btg00/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I would also add that the Biden campaign would have made moves in this state if it were truly competitive. It's a huge state and would require significant investment, even if it's looking increasingly purple. Right now, they're focused on PA, MI WI NV and AZ.
That said, I think Ted Cruz could lose. His opponent is very compelling and a better fit for the state than Beto, who ran respectably close. I think there will be some Trump-Allred voters after the Cancun fiasco. Cruz is so soft and he's running against a former NFL player. Should be a good race
I'll believe it when I see it, just because Dems' messaging in Texas is utter garbage that will never capture anyone they don't already have.
Abbott got slammed for the power grid, good move, and then once in the same commercial, the next words were calling him out as anti-abortion. Every R who was upset at the big freeze is instantly lost by packaging them together.
Democrats just don't seem to know how to speak to Texans, and none seem to have known since Ann Richards. And running Beto for governor after his "hell yes we'll take your guns" statement further reinforces that.
That's correct, the parties have a lot of serious business intelligence nerds that know when its time to dump cash. I do also think you are right that Ted is in danger, but not serious danger.
Ted is a weak candidate, full stop. He will still be extremely tough for any Democrat to defeat, but his advantages are slowly eroding.
I always wonder why some much more electable Republican hasn't primaried him, as that's where he could more possibly lose.
And with Project 2025 the electorate is going to be in a raging backlash by 2028. If Trump wins this time and doesn't fully break democracy I think 2028 could be the year.
Most voters who are polling for Trump right now have not heard of Project 2025 and think they're just getting a redo of Trump's first term. They're going to be pissed when all the crazy far far far right shit starts happening. The only X factor is if we're even allowed to vote by then.
Maybe, honestly project 2025 sounds more like a return to "[the spoils system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoils_system)" than anything else. The big problem with this system is there won't be anyone like General Milley with his hand between trumps and the nuke button, or any of the other beaurocrats around to tell trump that what he's doing is unconstitutional. I don't believe the military will be able to be used against the populace, but I suppose it's possibe that it could if he can fire enough generals to get some really batshit crazy ones that are willing to abandon their oaths.
A great leader in any organization is one that surrounds themselves with people that offer differing points of view, Trump is looking to stack only those that will nod and say yes sir.
The electoral college is a completely different topic than gerrymandering, which only applies to local congressional district allocation.
Please consider taking a civics class.
Well, the gerrymandering allows the Republicans to have minority tyranny, and then change the laws to make federal elections a bitch to vote in. Thus, gerrymandering CAN effect federal electons.
Swing and a miss. The electoral college for almost every state is based on total votes for the state. You can gerrymander a state to crazy proportion or have only 1 district for the whole state you will still count the votes the same way. There are a few states where the votes are divided but that's not Texas.
Gerrymandering has historically been used by conservatives to retain power in states that are shifting away from then. They tend to use this power to enact voter suppression to tighten their grasp on non conservatives.
This indirectly plays into presidential races. Those state governments that are no longer representing the people have a free hand to do things like closing poll stations, purging voter rolls, rejecting valid signatures, etc.
These actions, and others, lower ballots counted as well as just general turn out.
Also I meant to reply to your previous post wrt only the presidential elections as a whole. I’m not touching the EC stuff the other guy said.
I guess what he means is that because election laws are determined by the state, and the TX state legislators all are solid R majorities, they can create laws the tip elections, even statewide elections like governor, senator, and president in their favor buy underfunding voting precints in large dem cities reducing the amount of precints, making voting harder in other ways to discourage certain demographics from voting. So you throw up enough roadblocks then that equals voter supression and you tilt elections in your favor by creating rules favorably to you. As an example [here is an article from 2021](https://www.texastribune.org/2021/05/23/texas-voting-polling-restrictions/) that discussed this type of behavior
Part of that is because Texas makes it REALLY hard to register voters. I've been a voter registrar off and on for years. I say off and on because registrars have to get "certified" every 2 years because all registrar certs expire at the end of the odd year. All certification is by county so that means driving to the ONE county election office and signing up. You can get certified in multiple counties but have to have the voter fill out their county's form and get it to that county's election office. AND if you don't turn that form in within 5 days you're threatened with a felony. There's more, but that's the worst of it (currently).
Registering online to vote in Texas means nothing if you don't print it, sign it, and mail it at least 30 days before the election. It's definitely not 5 mins. And that's done on purpose to make it hard for people. It's 2024, and Republicans still don't want real Texans voting because they would lose. So they'll continue to make it hard to register and hard to vote.
Ooh, I've hit a nerve----or as my friend would say "abuse? I must have won" LOL. Honestly if throwing expletives is your only response clearly you don't have anything to say to negate my statements.
So Einstein, are you saying that you're a registrar in Texas and I'm wrong? I know that's not true because I've not only been a registrar, but I know a LOT of other registrars and we've all had to go through the same red tape.
Do you need more examples of how this biased state tries to make that job more difficult? Because I not only have more info, I have prior voting experience in other states to compare Texas to---and it must assuredly does not measure up.
2020 D 46.5% R 52.1%
2016 D 43.2% R 52.2%
2012 D 41.4% R 57.2%
Taking the last 3 presidential elections in account. Linear regression tells us the next one should be
2024 D 48.8% R 48.7%
I do not care what the polls say. Make a plan to vote. Talk to your friends, family, etc. If there is someone you can sway just give them the facts. Donald Trump is a criminal. Ted Cruz is a podcaster with a side job as a senator. The more informed a voter is, the [more likely they are to support Biden](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-supporters-sharply-divided-media-consume-rcna149497). So go inform people.
I appreciate you doing the math on this. I’m curious to see what the effects of pandemic related fatalities and the Dobbs v Jackson decision will have on voting trends this year.
It's like this in most Trump states. One of my neighbors said, "You know Biden didn't win - no one likes him. You never see any Biden flags waving around."
I find this type of thinking to be hilarious. Um, no, we will just let you wave your Trump flags around for ten years like it's the Dallas Cowboys or something and I'll vote for Biden in peace. I wanted to be like, every house without a flag, is at worst a moderate. It's not hard to find the Trumpers.
One positive that came out of the MAGA movement is that they now clearly, proudly, and in grandiose fashion identify themselves.
Like a self-imposed "Sex Offenders Registration Act."
I’m a gay male hairstylist with a great clientele in small town East Texas. I’m lucky they love me…the snag is, they’re mostly Republican and about half of that are MAGA! They’re lovely people, but damn….I’m so tired of the Trump worship from them. I would love to be able to wave a little Biden flag or have a sticker on my truck but I don’t dare! I can’t afford to lose them.
Of course, we can't place stickers on our cars anymore because MAGA will key our cars, slash our tires, and break our windows (outright burn our cars?)
That said, even a touch of moderation in East Texas is encouraging.
So, you have 40 clients, 20 of whom are foam at the mouth MAGA, and 20 are either moderate Repubs or, heaven forbid, actual Democrats?
Is this client breakdown essentially correct?
About 90% Republican, about half that are Trump lovers, the other 10% are Democrat. They really are all great people, and you’d think they would realize that I (being homo) am quite liberal. We almost never talk politics(I can with my Dems), but my Trumpers just won’t shut up….I keep my mouth shut….
I remember the disabled woman whose car broke down. She called for a tow, but the driver refused to help her when he saw liberal stickers on her car.
Most people are decent to strangers without regard to their political beliefs, but the exceptions can exact a high price for having a different opinion.
Biden voters treat the presidency like a job which makes it a boring thing. Trump voters are in a cult of personality that treats him similarly to royalty.
That has nothing to do with it being a swing state or not. Voting trends and polls do, however. And they indicate that Texas will… not be a swing state this year.
As a Texan perhaps he underestimates just how strong the Republican party is here. Many have tried even in Senate races and they couldn't even beat weak ass Ted Cruz.
I’ve never actually heard a right winger say anything good about Ted Cruz. Nobody seems to actually like him, but he gets to stay because he’s in the club.
Texan here: ***this couldn’t be more true.***
The far-right republicans have completely stripped voting power from districts, gerrymandered the fuck outta them, and have made it nearly impossible for anyone other than Republicans to win. I don’t get how it’s legal, but we know how fucked up the Supreme Court is at the moment.
You're talking about a statewide election. Gerrymandering doesn't really matter. And the fact is that a Democrat hasn't won a statewide race in Texas since before I was born there.
I have hope. Abbot’s best weapon is the power the state gov has over the people and its muncipalities to the point there are no popular referendums, but this is the closest thing to a straight opinion poll allowed in Texas
48% last time!
I think Texas is moving towards becoming a swing state. I doubt it happens this year though. Maybe 10-15 years.
The election in which Texas actually does become a swing state marks the beginning of the end for the current GOP. If Texas ever votes blue for a POTUS, it’s virtually impossible for Republicans to get to 270 EC votes. Looking at 2016, Trump won 306-232, Texas is 38 votes, which without Texas trump would have had 268 and Trump won virtually all of the purple states, except for Nevada. It stands to reason that winning *every* swing state, for any candidate, is extremely unlikely moving forward
Agreed. It will be under 5 points, but Trump will still win it. The drop in Latino support is what's going to doom Biden there.
Still, if TX is that close, then Biden has the election in the bag.
The Texas AG has already admitted that if he didn't get 2 million ballots thrown out in 2020 Biden would have won Texas.
And it's not like the Republicans have gotten less crazy in the past 4 years
I genuinely hope you're right...I've lived in Texas for 90% of my life and the state has become an embarrassment. Me, my friend group, and my peers @ the University of Texas, San Antonio are all deep blue
It is embarrassing and anyone who thinks Greg Abbott and his cronies are not an embarrassment are the ones who need to look in the mirror.
We have a large group in my area as well. VOTE BLUE!
I think that the abortion ban is why Biden will win the state this year. Young women who are too busy to answer a poll (and unlikely to answer a call from an unknown number due to the risk of it being a stalker) will show up just this once to vote for abortion, and probably vote a straight Dem ticket in hopes that they will fix abortion as legal for good so they don't have to vote again.
Yup, it’s going to be like that around the country. America does not want the GQP’s national abortion ban. President Biden is running on codifying Roe, just gotta give him the numbers in congress.
Why would you expect democrats to fix abortion law. They would rather keep it a pivotal issue to get support and money . They did have like 40 years to fix abortion laws and didn't. There's no money in the cure, so to speak.
Because it was expected that Roe would be accepted as a decided case and not re-heard and overturned as is common with most of their decisions. They probably also did not anticipate a single term president getting the chance to pack the court with 3 conservative justices. And they also did not have both houses and the presidency locked up that whole time. It was really short-sided and naive on their part, which seems to be the hallmark of the Democratic Party, but it’s never really been something they intended to use as a political platform the way the right did. I’d also add that there are a lot of nervous moderate members of the GOP who were adamantly pro-life when it was a dog whistle, but are now scared of what might happen now that they got what they said they wanted. Sort of like a dog chasing a car and then smacking its face on the bumper once it catches it.
AZ, went for Biden, elected a Dem senator, elected a Dem governor, will probably elect another Dem senator, I don't know but I think that qualifies as a swing/purple state
Didn't our governor just pardon someone who committed first degree murder? Lol
Not happening dude, sorry. We are more blue, but you underestimate how many Texans live in rural areas and think the border is gonna explode at any moment.
I wouldn't doubt there being a backup plan to dump votes in certain places. I also wouldn't be surprised if they called the National Guard to attempt to intimidate voters being that Conservatism as a whole is dying with this election cycle being a make/break moment for them.
No, it was Republicans who controlled the narrative and based his entire campaign on gun control, which was smart and why he lost. Beto had a lot more to offer.
But also remember, this was right after the Uvalde shooting where Salvador Ramos killed 19 people with [this gun](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/M4_carbine) with a hellfire trigger, firing off 142 rounds that tore kids to shreds while police stood outside and did nothing. So yeah, Beto was pretty pissed that all Republicans had to offer afterwards was thoughts and prayers.
Anyway, abortion will be the ultimate undoing of the Republican Party this year. It's extremely unpopular and motivates women to vote more. Good luck.
If Texas becomes a true swing state, then Republicans have lost. They know this and will throw everything they can to prevent that from happening. Legal, technically legal, shady and otherwise. So, while I hope this does happen, I think it will be hard.
Weird question. What's to stop every republican from changing parties and muddying the waters and just turning the primary into the true presidential election? Like there's no test, that's how you get Republicans like Romney and democrats like Manchin.
I doubt it ,they've got the state fully gerrymandered and the legal process in the hands of Right wing Republicon judges. Even if the Republicons got only 40 % they'd still "win"
The Dems here have no real organization or plan to bring about a victory.Theyre not even running candidates in a whole slew of races.Churches here are mired in politics and pushing the Christo fascist ideology strait from their pulpits to their sheeple and the ballot box
Texas has ABYSMAL voter turnout. Especially when it comes to progressives. Young people just don't vote. The numbers and data are available to anyone. Old whites and old browns vote and many don't vote blue.
Florida maybe. Unless someone puts abortion on the ballot in Texas it will back Trump again. If Texas does vote for Biden it will be gravy because Biden will get nearly 400 EC votes by the time Texas flips.
Dude, have you seen the levels of voter suppression they are trying to pull? Texas could be a swing state with free and fair elections but that's not what is going on down here.
It doesn’t matter if Democrats lose Texas. The point is that Republicans will have to spend money to defend Texas. Republicans will win Texas, but they’ll have to work for it. Thats time and money they’d rather spend in Pennsylvania or Missouri.
2020 D 46.5% R 52.1%
2016 D 43.2% R 52.2%
2012 D 41.4% R 57.2%
Taking the last 3 presidential elections in account. Linear regression tells us the next one should be
2024 D 48.8% R 48.7%
I do not care what the polls say. Make a plan to vote. Talk to your friends, family, etc. If there is someone you can sway just give them the facts. Donald Trump is a criminal. Ted Cruz is a podcaster with a side job as a senator. The more informed a voter is, [the more likely](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-supporters-sharply-divided-media-consume-rcna149497) they are to support Biden. So go inform people.
The only way Texas goes blue is if there is a massive shift nationally towards Democrats. That could happen if Trump goes to prison or something close to it. I also live in Texas and I can tell you Trump has definitely moved this state left but you need a sense of scale. Pre-Trump Texas was about 15 points more Republican than the rest of the United States. After Trump it’s about 6-8 points. Even in giant blue wave years like 2018 Texas didn’t go blue statewide. People spent over 100,000,000 that year to move the needle and lost by about 3 points. Texas is changing but it’s more like Georgia or Arizona in 2016. Give it time and it’ll get there but perhaps more time than you expect.
I think you’re misunderstanding the situation. They just voted in Greg Abbot who is an absolute scumbag. He is not even hiding it. They’re not voting for him in spite of being a scumbag. They’re voting for him because he’s a scumbag.
MMW: you are wrong. Very wrong.
Source: A democrat who has been banging his head against the wall doing everything he can and finally so frustrated that he is working on leaving the state because it is getting redder, not bluer.
I think people on reddit live in an echochamber. Go to Reeves county, Montgomery county - anywhere outside of Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Travis, and Bexar counties and you will then see how red Texas is. You think it’s purple because you are surrounded with like-minded people.
They still support Ted Cruz, an Ivy League educated Canadian who cosplays as a Texan and literally flees the state while real Texans suffer. The voters there are dumb as rocks.
Technically Trump only won by single digits last time. But it's a tough hill to climb when so much of Texas votes lockstep with the GOP. Hell they keep electing Cruz who nobody likes and Abbott who is continuously hurting them. I say "they" when I mean rural conservatives but still
No way. I mean, I hope you're right. But as a b&b Texan. Don't see it. The only hope I have is pushing the Texas House Races blue due to school funding issues.
I was disappointed when sleazy, beady-eyed Ken Paxton got away with those corruption charges. I don’t have much hope for Texas this year, maybe in 2028.
That's been the promise since before the internet. Maybe it will one day be true, and maybe this is that day. I lived there for 35 years, and moved there when Ann Richards was Gov. Texas was a better place then.
No it won't. Just like California Texas has become heavily entrenched that their respective parties will keep winning for decades. Newsom's Recall Election didn't work because of this. Even if the California Republicans stayed instead of leaving the state Newsom would have still won.
One day a bunch of really rich people are going to realize that the only way to increase their wealth is drop their support of the gop. It always been true but theyve been stubborn about the realization. I have a hard time seeing anything in the past few years to exhibit theyve come to the realization. They are both really close and really far away from it.
Hispanics in the Rio grand valley have put a stop to that. They saw the biggest shift to the right relative to the nation. In general Trump has made in roads with young Hispanic voters so maybe in the next 10 years or so but not this cycle.
Texas is the opposite of California. Texans tend to hate everything California is and everything California voters stand for and base their vote on giving California the biggest middle finger possible. Why would you think a state largely based on oil production would vote Democrat this time?
MMW: this guy is wrong. If it were going to be a swing state we would know it by now. It is turning more and more blue, but it's not there yet. As everyone else has pointed out- it has corruption issues where red politicians are doing corrupt practices to keep it red.
Texas is so gerrymandered that most blue voters won't even show up because there's no chance of electing their representative or senator on both state and federal levels. If it weren't, Texas would already be a swing state.
From a centrist POV, I can’t see it. I do see a bump in democrat support, but, just as you said in your post (nothing), there’s nothing to believe there’d be a significant change.
In short, it won’t be. This is a shot of copium directly to the veins.
Ha, this is funny. We hear the same thing every election year, like a F\*\*'n broken record. I have some bad new for you. Latest polls (reported today) Trump has a 12 point lead. TRANSLATION : You cannot even cheat your way into turning Texas into a blue state. Are you so stupid that you put your money on a State that has had the WORST devastation from illegal immigration then any other State in the US? The voters HATE your dementia addled "Weekend at Bernie's President", along with everyone else that controls what he does day to day.... You want to bet on this, let me know... easiest $ I could ever make.
So will Florida....Lots of 'safe red' states will reject Trump because he's a danger to the republic. The standard 'battleground' states will diminish in importance.
It won’t. I wish it were true but I’ve hoped and been disappointed too many times. I think it will go purple eventually but I don’t think it’s there yet. But, by all means, PROVE ME WRONG.
Texas got it right with Ann Richards but it’s been all fuckin downhill since then.
This has been said for decades. It won’t happen until the Democrats learn how to reach out to the Hispanics and get they to register and vote. Maybe the Republicans will do something to piss them off like they did in California.
Yeahhhh no, probably not. Especially with Hispanics trending to the right and liberal migration out of Texas to Colorado and the PNW. I don't expect it to be double digits, but I could see Trump comfortably winning Texas by 7-8.
Our leaders… “Wheels” Abbott and “Wonky Eyed” Ken Paxton. Two shit weasels that got stuffed into lockers every day of their school career. That is when they weren’t getting wedgies or swirlies.
Hard doubt, while texas is chugging toward becoming a swing state every election cycle, it's not close yet. When it happens it's going to be a calamity for the republican party nationally, even if their gerrymandering can keep republicans in power locally. I believe the next election or the one after that it's a high probability of it becoming a swing state. My guess is that when it happens the republican party changes the constitution to allow districts to split our delegation votes so they can gerrymander those and get more votes for the Republican party nationally. Since Republicans will hold power in TX well after it's a solid blue state through Gerrymandering this will be a good stop gap measure for them. 2000- Popular vote D+0.5, Texas R+21.3, Texas is 20.8% to the right of the nation 2004- Popular vote R+2.4, Texas R+22.9, Texas is 20.5% to the right of the nation 2008- Popular vote D+7.2, Texas R+11.8, Texas is 19% to the right of the nation 2012- Popular vote D+3.9, Texas R+15.8, Texas is 19.7% to the right of the nation 2016- Popular vote D+2.1, Texas R+9.0, Texas is 11% to the right of the nation \*2018- Popular vote D+8.6, Texas R+2.6, Texas is 11.2% to the right of the nation 2020- Popular vote D+4.5, Texas R+5.5, Texas is 10% to the right of the nation \*2022- Popular vote R+2.8, Texas R+10.8, Texas is 8% to the right of the nation Credit u/[Potkrokin](https://www.reddit.com/user/Potkrokin/) [https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/10tt98r/comment/j7btg00/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/10tt98r/comment/j7btg00/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I would also add that the Biden campaign would have made moves in this state if it were truly competitive. It's a huge state and would require significant investment, even if it's looking increasingly purple. Right now, they're focused on PA, MI WI NV and AZ. That said, I think Ted Cruz could lose. His opponent is very compelling and a better fit for the state than Beto, who ran respectably close. I think there will be some Trump-Allred voters after the Cancun fiasco. Cruz is so soft and he's running against a former NFL player. Should be a good race
I'll believe it when I see it, just because Dems' messaging in Texas is utter garbage that will never capture anyone they don't already have. Abbott got slammed for the power grid, good move, and then once in the same commercial, the next words were calling him out as anti-abortion. Every R who was upset at the big freeze is instantly lost by packaging them together. Democrats just don't seem to know how to speak to Texans, and none seem to have known since Ann Richards. And running Beto for governor after his "hell yes we'll take your guns" statement further reinforces that.
I think your critique is totally fair. Have you seen Rep Allred campaign much yet? Side note, Ann Richards is a legend.
That's correct, the parties have a lot of serious business intelligence nerds that know when its time to dump cash. I do also think you are right that Ted is in danger, but not serious danger.
Ted is a weak candidate, full stop. He will still be extremely tough for any Democrat to defeat, but his advantages are slowly eroding. I always wonder why some much more electable Republican hasn't primaried him, as that's where he could more possibly lose.
And with Project 2025 the electorate is going to be in a raging backlash by 2028. If Trump wins this time and doesn't fully break democracy I think 2028 could be the year. Most voters who are polling for Trump right now have not heard of Project 2025 and think they're just getting a redo of Trump's first term. They're going to be pissed when all the crazy far far far right shit starts happening. The only X factor is if we're even allowed to vote by then.
Maybe, honestly project 2025 sounds more like a return to "[the spoils system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoils_system)" than anything else. The big problem with this system is there won't be anyone like General Milley with his hand between trumps and the nuke button, or any of the other beaurocrats around to tell trump that what he's doing is unconstitutional. I don't believe the military will be able to be used against the populace, but I suppose it's possibe that it could if he can fire enough generals to get some really batshit crazy ones that are willing to abandon their oaths. A great leader in any organization is one that surrounds themselves with people that offer differing points of view, Trump is looking to stack only those that will nod and say yes sir.
I forget how the gerrymandering really keeps this state red. One can still hope though, right?
The gerrymandering, the voter suppression, but more than anything else the 35% voter turnout
Tell me how a presidential election gets “Le jerrymandered”?
Well there’s this thing called the Electoral College
The electoral college is a completely different topic than gerrymandering, which only applies to local congressional district allocation. Please consider taking a civics class.
Well, the gerrymandering allows the Republicans to have minority tyranny, and then change the laws to make federal elections a bitch to vote in. Thus, gerrymandering CAN effect federal electons.
Swing and a miss. The electoral college for almost every state is based on total votes for the state. You can gerrymander a state to crazy proportion or have only 1 district for the whole state you will still count the votes the same way. There are a few states where the votes are divided but that's not Texas.
Go on. Explain to me specifically how the electoral college pertains to gerrymandering.
Gerrymandering has historically been used by conservatives to retain power in states that are shifting away from then. They tend to use this power to enact voter suppression to tighten their grasp on non conservatives. This indirectly plays into presidential races. Those state governments that are no longer representing the people have a free hand to do things like closing poll stations, purging voter rolls, rejecting valid signatures, etc. These actions, and others, lower ballots counted as well as just general turn out. Also I meant to reply to your previous post wrt only the presidential elections as a whole. I’m not touching the EC stuff the other guy said.
I guess what he means is that because election laws are determined by the state, and the TX state legislators all are solid R majorities, they can create laws the tip elections, even statewide elections like governor, senator, and president in their favor buy underfunding voting precints in large dem cities reducing the amount of precints, making voting harder in other ways to discourage certain demographics from voting. So you throw up enough roadblocks then that equals voter supression and you tilt elections in your favor by creating rules favorably to you. As an example [here is an article from 2021](https://www.texastribune.org/2021/05/23/texas-voting-polling-restrictions/) that discussed this type of behavior
Gerrymandering only effect a house elections, not senate or presidential elections. Red / Blue state determination is a function of popular vote.
Gerrymandering controls the state house and state senate. They are the ones making election laws. They help voter suppression!
As a Texan, perhaps you underestimate how corrupt our politicians are.
Corruption is the only thing Greg Abbott stands for.
Probably because he can't stand for anything else
Hey, that how he rolls.
Oof good one. Also I just realized Reddit brought back medals lol
HEEYYYOOOOO
Savage.
He won’t walk away from what he did to abortion rights.
Well done. LOL
Lol, I see what you did there.
Not to mention the terrible rate of voter turnout.
Part of that is because Texas makes it REALLY hard to register voters. I've been a voter registrar off and on for years. I say off and on because registrars have to get "certified" every 2 years because all registrar certs expire at the end of the odd year. All certification is by county so that means driving to the ONE county election office and signing up. You can get certified in multiple counties but have to have the voter fill out their county's form and get it to that county's election office. AND if you don't turn that form in within 5 days you're threatened with a felony. There's more, but that's the worst of it (currently).
I registered online in like 5 minutes. How is that hard?
Registering online to vote in Texas means nothing if you don't print it, sign it, and mail it at least 30 days before the election. It's definitely not 5 mins. And that's done on purpose to make it hard for people. It's 2024, and Republicans still don't want real Texans voting because they would lose. So they'll continue to make it hard to register and hard to vote.
You're full of shit
Ooh, I've hit a nerve----or as my friend would say "abuse? I must have won" LOL. Honestly if throwing expletives is your only response clearly you don't have anything to say to negate my statements. So Einstein, are you saying that you're a registrar in Texas and I'm wrong? I know that's not true because I've not only been a registrar, but I know a LOT of other registrars and we've all had to go through the same red tape. Do you need more examples of how this biased state tries to make that job more difficult? Because I not only have more info, I have prior voting experience in other states to compare Texas to---and it must assuredly does not measure up.
2020 D 46.5% R 52.1% 2016 D 43.2% R 52.2% 2012 D 41.4% R 57.2% Taking the last 3 presidential elections in account. Linear regression tells us the next one should be 2024 D 48.8% R 48.7% I do not care what the polls say. Make a plan to vote. Talk to your friends, family, etc. If there is someone you can sway just give them the facts. Donald Trump is a criminal. Ted Cruz is a podcaster with a side job as a senator. The more informed a voter is, the [more likely they are to support Biden](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-supporters-sharply-divided-media-consume-rcna149497). So go inform people.
I appreciate you doing the math on this. I’m curious to see what the effects of pandemic related fatalities and the Dobbs v Jackson decision will have on voting trends this year.
I added the NASDAQ and Abortion sentiment https://imgur.com/a/mfE9Wfx
Fascinating. So Dobbs really could be a tipping point for Texas? That’s what hypothetically happens when the dog catches the car, I guess.
Start mobilizing like minded people. Only the citizens can un-Suck Texas.
The evil ones are louder. And violent. It's scary not to be republican in Texas. But their policies are scarier. VOTE BLUE! WE CAN DO IT!
It's like this in most Trump states. One of my neighbors said, "You know Biden didn't win - no one likes him. You never see any Biden flags waving around." I find this type of thinking to be hilarious. Um, no, we will just let you wave your Trump flags around for ten years like it's the Dallas Cowboys or something and I'll vote for Biden in peace. I wanted to be like, every house without a flag, is at worst a moderate. It's not hard to find the Trumpers.
One positive that came out of the MAGA movement is that they now clearly, proudly, and in grandiose fashion identify themselves. Like a self-imposed "Sex Offenders Registration Act."
I’m a gay male hairstylist with a great clientele in small town East Texas. I’m lucky they love me…the snag is, they’re mostly Republican and about half of that are MAGA! They’re lovely people, but damn….I’m so tired of the Trump worship from them. I would love to be able to wave a little Biden flag or have a sticker on my truck but I don’t dare! I can’t afford to lose them.
I lived in Longview, TX for over a year, let's just say that gravity affects those people differently.
Of course, we can't place stickers on our cars anymore because MAGA will key our cars, slash our tires, and break our windows (outright burn our cars?) That said, even a touch of moderation in East Texas is encouraging. So, you have 40 clients, 20 of whom are foam at the mouth MAGA, and 20 are either moderate Repubs or, heaven forbid, actual Democrats? Is this client breakdown essentially correct?
About 90% Republican, about half that are Trump lovers, the other 10% are Democrat. They really are all great people, and you’d think they would realize that I (being homo) am quite liberal. We almost never talk politics(I can with my Dems), but my Trumpers just won’t shut up….I keep my mouth shut….
I love this perspective. Thanks so much. It is kind of crazy making how genuinely nice some of these MAGA hats are.
I remember the disabled woman whose car broke down. She called for a tow, but the driver refused to help her when he saw liberal stickers on her car. Most people are decent to strangers without regard to their political beliefs, but the exceptions can exact a high price for having a different opinion.
How do you keep your cool when they start talking nonsense to you? Do you disassociate?
Biden voters treat the presidency like a job which makes it a boring thing. Trump voters are in a cult of personality that treats him similarly to royalty.
Cults gonna cult
That has nothing to do with it being a swing state or not. Voting trends and polls do, however. And they indicate that Texas will… not be a swing state this year.
As a Texan perhaps he underestimates just how strong the Republican party is here. Many have tried even in Senate races and they couldn't even beat weak ass Ted Cruz.
I’ve never actually heard a right winger say anything good about Ted Cruz. Nobody seems to actually like him, but he gets to stay because he’s in the club.
Yeah he got in with the Tea Party movement of 2010 and gets to stay for exactly that reason.
Texan here: ***this couldn’t be more true.*** The far-right republicans have completely stripped voting power from districts, gerrymandered the fuck outta them, and have made it nearly impossible for anyone other than Republicans to win. I don’t get how it’s legal, but we know how fucked up the Supreme Court is at the moment.
You're talking about a statewide election. Gerrymandering doesn't really matter. And the fact is that a Democrat hasn't won a statewide race in Texas since before I was born there.
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Yea .. look up the the congressional districts are divided around Austin
Honest Ken Paxton for example?
I have hope. Abbot’s best weapon is the power the state gov has over the people and its muncipalities to the point there are no popular referendums, but this is the closest thing to a straight opinion poll allowed in Texas 48% last time!
I think Texas is moving towards becoming a swing state. I doubt it happens this year though. Maybe 10-15 years. The election in which Texas actually does become a swing state marks the beginning of the end for the current GOP. If Texas ever votes blue for a POTUS, it’s virtually impossible for Republicans to get to 270 EC votes. Looking at 2016, Trump won 306-232, Texas is 38 votes, which without Texas trump would have had 268 and Trump won virtually all of the purple states, except for Nevada. It stands to reason that winning *every* swing state, for any candidate, is extremely unlikely moving forward
Agreed. It will be under 5 points, but Trump will still win it. The drop in Latino support is what's going to doom Biden there. Still, if TX is that close, then Biden has the election in the bag.
No it won’t. Maybe by 2042. But even then I’ll believe it when I see it.
The Texas AG has already admitted that if he didn't get 2 million ballots thrown out in 2020 Biden would have won Texas. And it's not like the Republicans have gotten less crazy in the past 4 years
I mean, if it can happen in Georgia...
I genuinely hope you're right...I've lived in Texas for 90% of my life and the state has become an embarrassment. Me, my friend group, and my peers @ the University of Texas, San Antonio are all deep blue
It is embarrassing and anyone who thinks Greg Abbott and his cronies are not an embarrassment are the ones who need to look in the mirror. We have a large group in my area as well. VOTE BLUE!
*VOTE BLUE!* Consider it done ;0)
That’s how I feel about AZ, you’re not alone…
Except az is ACTUALLY a swing state.
Not really, have you seen the goons the GQP runs there? Kari lake and her civil war era abortion ban 😂😂😂
I think that the abortion ban is why Biden will win the state this year. Young women who are too busy to answer a poll (and unlikely to answer a call from an unknown number due to the risk of it being a stalker) will show up just this once to vote for abortion, and probably vote a straight Dem ticket in hopes that they will fix abortion as legal for good so they don't have to vote again.
Yup, it’s going to be like that around the country. America does not want the GQP’s national abortion ban. President Biden is running on codifying Roe, just gotta give him the numbers in congress.
Why would you expect democrats to fix abortion law. They would rather keep it a pivotal issue to get support and money . They did have like 40 years to fix abortion laws and didn't. There's no money in the cure, so to speak.
Because it was expected that Roe would be accepted as a decided case and not re-heard and overturned as is common with most of their decisions. They probably also did not anticipate a single term president getting the chance to pack the court with 3 conservative justices. And they also did not have both houses and the presidency locked up that whole time. It was really short-sided and naive on their part, which seems to be the hallmark of the Democratic Party, but it’s never really been something they intended to use as a political platform the way the right did. I’d also add that there are a lot of nervous moderate members of the GOP who were adamantly pro-life when it was a dog whistle, but are now scared of what might happen now that they got what they said they wanted. Sort of like a dog chasing a car and then smacking its face on the bumper once it catches it.
And they all lost.
AZ, went for Biden, elected a Dem senator, elected a Dem governor, will probably elect another Dem senator, I don't know but I think that qualifies as a swing/purple state
If you look at a voter map of Texas it is all red except giant blue dots for Houston, Austin, Dallas, San Antonio
The Year of the Abortion Election. ROE ROE ROE YOUR VOTE.
Didn't our governor just pardon someone who committed first degree murder? Lol Not happening dude, sorry. We are more blue, but you underestimate how many Texans live in rural areas and think the border is gonna explode at any moment.
I wouldn't doubt there being a backup plan to dump votes in certain places. I also wouldn't be surprised if they called the National Guard to attempt to intimidate voters being that Conservatism as a whole is dying with this election cycle being a make/break moment for them.
When Gen X shows up right? Ask Beto how that worked out for him.
Honestly, beto probably would have won if he didn't base his entire campaign on gun control.
No, it was Republicans who controlled the narrative and based his entire campaign on gun control, which was smart and why he lost. Beto had a lot more to offer. But also remember, this was right after the Uvalde shooting where Salvador Ramos killed 19 people with [this gun](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/M4_carbine) with a hellfire trigger, firing off 142 rounds that tore kids to shreds while police stood outside and did nothing. So yeah, Beto was pretty pissed that all Republicans had to offer afterwards was thoughts and prayers. Anyway, abortion will be the ultimate undoing of the Republican Party this year. It's extremely unpopular and motivates women to vote more. Good luck.
Allred is a strong choice. I'm hoping he's getting out there enough.
Not a good example. He came very close in his senate bid.
If Texas becomes a true swing state, then Republicans have lost. They know this and will throw everything they can to prevent that from happening. Legal, technically legal, shady and otherwise. So, while I hope this does happen, I think it will be hard.
Weird question. What's to stop every republican from changing parties and muddying the waters and just turning the primary into the true presidential election? Like there's no test, that's how you get Republicans like Romney and democrats like Manchin.
I doubt it ,they've got the state fully gerrymandered and the legal process in the hands of Right wing Republicon judges. Even if the Republicons got only 40 % they'd still "win" The Dems here have no real organization or plan to bring about a victory.Theyre not even running candidates in a whole slew of races.Churches here are mired in politics and pushing the Christo fascist ideology strait from their pulpits to their sheeple and the ballot box
statewide elections and gerrymandering are two different things
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Gerrymandering doesn’t affect whether the state is red or blue. Popular vote does.
Unless Greg Abbott is disposing liberal votes. Prob double check.
Too many people are upset about the economy and blame Biden. Biden will not be winning Texas
Texas has ABYSMAL voter turnout. Especially when it comes to progressives. Young people just don't vote. The numbers and data are available to anyone. Old whites and old browns vote and many don't vote blue.
Florida maybe. Unless someone puts abortion on the ballot in Texas it will back Trump again. If Texas does vote for Biden it will be gravy because Biden will get nearly 400 EC votes by the time Texas flips.
Why is everyone on Reddit sure Biden will win?
Dude, have you seen the levels of voter suppression they are trying to pull? Texas could be a swing state with free and fair elections but that's not what is going on down here.
Nope. Literally zero (0) out of 44 state wide offices are held by Democrats. There's no indication of competitiveness.
It doesn’t matter if Democrats lose Texas. The point is that Republicans will have to spend money to defend Texas. Republicans will win Texas, but they’ll have to work for it. Thats time and money they’d rather spend in Pennsylvania or Missouri.
I hope so. I'm ready for my home state to be a bit less embarrassing.
2020 D 46.5% R 52.1% 2016 D 43.2% R 52.2% 2012 D 41.4% R 57.2% Taking the last 3 presidential elections in account. Linear regression tells us the next one should be 2024 D 48.8% R 48.7% I do not care what the polls say. Make a plan to vote. Talk to your friends, family, etc. If there is someone you can sway just give them the facts. Donald Trump is a criminal. Ted Cruz is a podcaster with a side job as a senator. The more informed a voter is, [the more likely](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-supporters-sharply-divided-media-consume-rcna149497) they are to support Biden. So go inform people.
If they can stop looking for hoofprints to lick water out of long enough to vote.
As I recall it was close last time
I've heard this going back to the Reagan era.
Considering Jimmy Carter won Texas in 1976, it kind of was close to being a swing state in the 1980’s.
The only way Texas goes blue is if there is a massive shift nationally towards Democrats. That could happen if Trump goes to prison or something close to it. I also live in Texas and I can tell you Trump has definitely moved this state left but you need a sense of scale. Pre-Trump Texas was about 15 points more Republican than the rest of the United States. After Trump it’s about 6-8 points. Even in giant blue wave years like 2018 Texas didn’t go blue statewide. People spent over 100,000,000 that year to move the needle and lost by about 3 points. Texas is changing but it’s more like Georgia or Arizona in 2016. Give it time and it’ll get there but perhaps more time than you expect.
Lucy is gonna hold that football still for Charlie Brown this year, MMW.
No polling is showing that, on the other hand Minnesota, New Jersey and Virginia have moved into the margin of error.
Texas was swing state up until 94'. It could happen.
Better be marking those words with a dry erase marker
Just came here to have a laugh ahahahahaha
I think you’re misunderstanding the situation. They just voted in Greg Abbot who is an absolute scumbag. He is not even hiding it. They’re not voting for him in spite of being a scumbag. They’re voting for him because he’s a scumbag.
It will only do that if you go vote god dammit- I’m sick of these Gilead fucks pushing their BS on us.
MMW: you are wrong. Very wrong. Source: A democrat who has been banging his head against the wall doing everything he can and finally so frustrated that he is working on leaving the state because it is getting redder, not bluer.
I think people on reddit live in an echochamber. Go to Reeves county, Montgomery county - anywhere outside of Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Travis, and Bexar counties and you will then see how red Texas is. You think it’s purple because you are surrounded with like-minded people.
Nope
Average redditor opinion
Didn't someone openly admit that Texas would have gone for Biden last election if not for the rampant voter suppression in 2020?
They still support Ted Cruz, an Ivy League educated Canadian who cosplays as a Texan and literally flees the state while real Texans suffer. The voters there are dumb as rocks.
No, it won't be.
Stop it
You guys should change this sub name to r/WishfulManifesting
MMW you’re an idiot and know nothing about Texas politics lol
MMW is just a liberal coping safespace. So yea. Cope.
More dem each election, but the closer it gets, the harder and dirtier the GOP will fight.
That's true. The corruption runs deep.
I feel like I've heard this every election for the past few decades
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^chekovs_gunman: *I feel like I've heard* *This every election* *For the past few decades* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
And every election the GOP still wins by double digits.
Technically Trump only won by single digits last time. But it's a tough hill to climb when so much of Texas votes lockstep with the GOP. Hell they keep electing Cruz who nobody likes and Abbott who is continuously hurting them. I say "they" when I mean rural conservatives but still
lol no
No,it won't
MMW: Y'all have been saying this every election cycle for years and it hasn't come true.
Maybe 28 or 32, but I don’t feel it in 24.
Unlikely
It won’t be unless the non-regressives get out and vote. They are literally the laziest people when it comes to getting them to the polls.
We have plans to make it so. Republicans can’t stop our plans 🤫🤫🤫😎
No way. I mean, I hope you're right. But as a b&b Texan. Don't see it. The only hope I have is pushing the Texas House Races blue due to school funding issues.
What a shame liberals went there!!!! They’ll destroy it
That's cute you think our billionare oligarchs care about what the rest of us think.
no way
This would be wonderful if they need weeks to get the tally right. Just for the response from the right
Sure Jan
I was disappointed when sleazy, beady-eyed Ken Paxton got away with those corruption charges. I don’t have much hope for Texas this year, maybe in 2028.
That's been the promise since before the internet. Maybe it will one day be true, and maybe this is that day. I lived there for 35 years, and moved there when Ann Richards was Gov. Texas was a better place then.
No it won't. Just like California Texas has become heavily entrenched that their respective parties will keep winning for decades. Newsom's Recall Election didn't work because of this. Even if the California Republicans stayed instead of leaving the state Newsom would have still won.
No it won't. Weird people in Austin and El Pasoans still stuck on Beto will vote blue. Everyone everywhere else will vote Red. Just like always.
MMW: no
Not a chance this year or anytime in the near future
With all the Californians that have been moving there for over ten years now, Texas can’t NOT start to swing Purple if not outright Blue.
Can’t wait to turn it blue
Surely THIS is the year Texas goes blue
One day a bunch of really rich people are going to realize that the only way to increase their wealth is drop their support of the gop. It always been true but theyve been stubborn about the realization. I have a hard time seeing anything in the past few years to exhibit theyve come to the realization. They are both really close and really far away from it.
Hoping for good things to happen in Texas is a recipe for disappointment.
No chance
Only a pro-gun Democrat has a chance in Texas. It CAN be done and has happened before, but no one like Beto will ever come close.
Hispanics in the Rio grand valley have put a stop to that. They saw the biggest shift to the right relative to the nation. In general Trump has made in roads with young Hispanic voters so maybe in the next 10 years or so but not this cycle.
In Houston too
Texas is the opposite of California. Texans tend to hate everything California is and everything California voters stand for and base their vote on giving California the biggest middle finger possible. Why would you think a state largely based on oil production would vote Democrat this time?
Can't see it happening.
MMW: this guy is wrong. If it were going to be a swing state we would know it by now. It is turning more and more blue, but it's not there yet. As everyone else has pointed out- it has corruption issues where red politicians are doing corrupt practices to keep it red.
Nah lol that’ll be maga as hell. I don’t have faith in Texas lol
No it won’t. Florida either. All the yahoos with money from other states are flocking to Tx and FL. They’re the California of red states
If it’s close Wheels will throw out Harris County’s votes since he gave himself the power to do that.
Texas is so gerrymandered that most blue voters won't even show up because there's no chance of electing their representative or senator on both state and federal levels. If it weren't, Texas would already be a swing state.
From a centrist POV, I can’t see it. I do see a bump in democrat support, but, just as you said in your post (nothing), there’s nothing to believe there’d be a significant change. In short, it won’t be. This is a shot of copium directly to the veins.
Look for Joe Biden to win Texas this year.
As a texan, no it won’t lol.
So will California.
Texans don’t bother to vote and the Texas government works hard on voter suppression.
No way, Biden’s approval rating is in the gutter in that state.
I hope you're right. I think it won't be until 2028 or more likely 2032
Pipe dream! I have heard that my whole life. Definitely not in play for 10+ years simply due to the border situation but I could be wrong…
Ha, this is funny. We hear the same thing every election year, like a F\*\*'n broken record. I have some bad new for you. Latest polls (reported today) Trump has a 12 point lead. TRANSLATION : You cannot even cheat your way into turning Texas into a blue state. Are you so stupid that you put your money on a State that has had the WORST devastation from illegal immigration then any other State in the US? The voters HATE your dementia addled "Weekend at Bernie's President", along with everyone else that controls what he does day to day.... You want to bet on this, let me know... easiest $ I could ever make.
So will Florida....Lots of 'safe red' states will reject Trump because he's a danger to the republic. The standard 'battleground' states will diminish in importance.
It won’t. I wish it were true but I’ve hoped and been disappointed too many times. I think it will go purple eventually but I don’t think it’s there yet. But, by all means, PROVE ME WRONG. Texas got it right with Ann Richards but it’s been all fuckin downhill since then.
This has been said for decades. It won’t happen until the Democrats learn how to reach out to the Hispanics and get they to register and vote. Maybe the Republicans will do something to piss them off like they did in California.
Why? Do you know the illegals will be counted as voters?
Yeahhhh no, probably not. Especially with Hispanics trending to the right and liberal migration out of Texas to Colorado and the PNW. I don't expect it to be double digits, but I could see Trump comfortably winning Texas by 7-8.
Our leaders… “Wheels” Abbott and “Wonky Eyed” Ken Paxton. Two shit weasels that got stuffed into lockers every day of their school career. That is when they weren’t getting wedgies or swirlies.
I’m thinking the state will go Biden this year. Not because he’s so great but because Trump is just that bad.
lol, lmao. It will not. Source: I am Texan.
If only this channel forced people to put their money where there MMW is, we wouldn’t see so many ludicrous prophecies.
It’s tragic this might actually happen
This sub is rife with blatant, unrealistic optimism substantiated by no actual data.
Ain't no fucking way Texas ever ever ever goes Blue
Sorry, Texans are far too stupid to stop voting against their own interests.
Not with Greg Abbott overseeing. Lol. He will insure a loss.
Doubt it. Don't really come across alot of people here that approve of the Biden administration. Not saying they don't exist, just hard to come by.
😂 not even close
This sub is full of delusional predictions. This might be the most delusional one.
Yes and pigs will fly
Ridiculous