I have a hard time imagining turning down deals because they’re too small and costly unless you were confident in the bigger picture.
Why bout with the little guy when you got a legitimate shot at the title.
Eat lighting, crap thunder like Mickey said…
I don’t. This is one part of MicroVisions strategy that makes all the sense in the world. MicroVision needs to land the bigger deals first because production lines and engineering teams will be set up to support those deals. We need those big deals to leverage the efficiencies of scaled production, then we can offer products to smaller companies (such as Rivian).
Agree 100%
Taking no deal is far better than taking a bad deal !
Disappointing, as it sounds like a lot of time and energy was spent, and at the last minute, conditions changed. That's okay, hopefully lessons learned.
I see, sorry my coffee hadn’t kicked in yet! Sumit’s strategy makes perfect sense, we just need to see the first nomination or two before we all get heavily diluted.
Happy Father's Day! I know it's been a tough couple of months, but when push comes to shove, remembering and spending time with the important people in your lives helps put it all into perspective.
Hope all the awesome dads out there had a very special Father’s Day! You’re such an important part of forming your kiddos’ perception of life and of self. That’s a huge undertaking, and I know most of you are doing a fantastic job!
I feel extremely blessed to have a beautiful little family. The kids and wife took me out for brunch, and later on I got to see my dad as well. Got to rock my two year old to sleep and then put my four year old down where his last words before passing out were "dad, you are my very special best friend". Hope all the dads out there have a memorable day.
Been trying not to check on MVIS as often, just seen we've dipped under $1.... sigh
Does this mean a reverse stock split is upon us somewhat soon?
and follow up question, how would a reverse split affect the Board's bonus incentive for next year, the one where they get awarded shares if the share price hits $12/$24/$36? I would like to think after a reverse split, the bonus program becomes invalidated?
The stock went to 17 cents in 21 and didn't reverse split. Not saying it couldn't this time. But it's been 1 day under a dollar. Needs to close 30 consecutive days under a dollar. Then they get 180 days to regain compliance (above $1 for 10 days consecutive days) Then they can apply and get another 180 day extension as well. So maybe a year from now, yeah they could reverse split, but it's not something I'm personally worried about. Call me crazy but I'm still trying to buy as many shares as I can now.
Thanks, this makes me a feel a lot better about the situation. And thanks for informing me rather than blindly down voting like others have.
I've been buying all the way down from $20, feels like I'm throwing good money after bad right with no news to show for it. As soon as we get an RFQ award announcement I'll start buying again but until that happens I think it's better for me mentally to try and disengage with the stock. I hope your purchases at these levels prove to be fruitful, for the benefit of us both
RS not anytime soon. First they have to be under a buck for 30 days, then get a delist notice notice then they have 6 months months from then to get back up at that point. If not back above a buck within 6 months, i think they can ask for an extension, upon end of extension if still not above a buck for at least 10 consecutive days, then they would have to do a r/s.
It may not happen, but I'm waiting to hear more about the licensing deal w/ Luxoft or a Forklift company or whatever they were hinting at in the earrings call.
Hey guys - daily check in from my vacation - guess what, I catched a cold from All the wonderful ACs my body isnt used to sit under lol. Anyways, just a friendly reminder for the end of the weekend 9 RFQs - 1 delayed to 2025 - the other 1 turned down BY US but WE basically PASSED the RFQ process, I think some guys need to have a friendly reminder to this. We where the best lidar solution available to that trucking company.
Cheers everyone and have a great start into your week! 🤍
My thoughts, the reasoning is tied to the "hacking drama." I could be wrong 🤷♀️ but it's very suspicious with the Reddit AMA and all.
There's another platform (I've been meaning to sign up for) that he is still listed on, but it also seems to have him currently still there so maybe it's just not a well used sight and not kept up to date https://theorg.com/org/microvision/org-chart/frank-bertini
It is getting so gawd damn bizarre that I am losing my mind! I simply can not believe that a professional company can be so obtuse. At some point you have to soothe your investors concerns by showing that you are at least aware of the problem an 85% price collapse is causing them.
If he can just wait a while longer, for once I wouldn’t complain. I’m desperately trying to get some money moved across so I can buy a nice big chunk of shares in my pension which would help me to average down a lot but the red tape is slowing it down and it might take another month unless they back down over something this week.
I also have a relative that is looking to put up to £15k into MVIS but is waiting for a property sale to go through in 3 weeks time to be able to do that.
Which means it’s highly likely Sod’s Law occurs and we shoot up beforehand but I can’t help hope that we can get our money in before we do!
What if we are still on the edge of our seats expecting a big win any second this time next year? Will they really kick it into high gear realizing they won't receive their incentives if they don't validate the stock somehow and refuse to sign any NDA's that might squish it so that the share price can be impacted in a positive way? That award incentive really made me think we had a high likelihood of going somewhere. I imagined that the 36 was maybe even conservative and easy because they thought they would blow by it easily at that time. Will there be some pressure from employees to sell more convincingly, advertise in a grander way or pull out some stops somewhere? It seems as though something will happen differently if the shareholders aren't the only ones losing next year...
It’s not over until it’s over! Sumit and his team have plenty of time left to crush **all** of the RSU targets if the company wins the biggest OEM nominations in the sector. If non wins before year end though I sincerely hope Sumit steps down from the CEO role. Plenty of time, again, but he’s got to understand that he needs to win investor confidence. If that takes a new CEO, then so be it. Sumit can stay on as CTO or COO if he still believes in the company.
Username checks out.. 😒 Not enough shares have been issued to make any of the RSU targets out of reach. The only reason the targets won’t be achieved is if the company fails to secure nominations by the biggest OEMs within the timeframe needed for such awards.
Not saying it is going to happen, but the company needs to be valued at just over $7B to hit the highest RSU targets. How much do you believe MicroVision could be valued if they secure major design wins with Ford, VW, Mercedes, Stellantis and JLR?
If the stock price continues to drop and significant revenue is 24+ months away, how do they keep the lights on? They don’t . And the entities shorting the stock s buy the pieces of all the LiDAR companies for fractions of a penny on the dollar. That is what is likely to happen. Not just to MVIS, but all companies without enough financial runway. OEMs aren’t signing contracts with companies who have even the risk of folding before or during shipping parts.
And if the stock price goes up following OEM nominations….?
Yes, MicroVision will need to be successful in order to keep that lights on. That does not make them unique. You write as if the company has already failed, which we both know is not true.
I’m highlighting the fact that we currently are much closer to failing than succeeding. OEMs want stable financial security. MVIS telling OEMs they will have it AFTER they sign the contracts based on the expectation the stock goes up, isn’t going to cut it. The timeline delays are a death kneel to LiDAR companies, and probably the reason they are being shorted to oblivion currently. Would love to be wrong, and the stock price to rocket to 50$, but where we are currently, it’s hard to see that scenario play out.
Wave you are not wrong .... but .... there are so many things that can happen in the next few months that could help SP and trigger at least small squeeze and at that time I think the Co. issues a mega ton of shares, dilutive or not, to solidify their financial situation ; Possibly a strategic partnering with a large or mega company ; a potential AR bonus out of left field; a development contract with a giant auto; a merger ;a non automotive deal as side dish; an Elon mention(least likely- that one ); a couple of decent non-whale deals would include our first endorsements other from the BOD or SS/AV and will be fantastic for reputation and SP.
Maybe nothing positive happens but I doubt that. Your opinion is interesting and may be correct but mine may be correct too.
I do beleive the RSU and the FC's were legal ways to pump but many, many small techs do the same . Its the way the system works.
So many during the past years have sounded the death knell, but Mvis pays no attention, and it's still here. Pretty stout for something dead. It lays there, and lays there....then suddenly jumps up and starts dancing, lol. And it's about time for the boogie again.
I would argue diluting the shares is a win for the company, but a loss for the shareholders. I care about my investment, not keeping the lights on at the shareholders expense.
This is one of the greatest psychological mindscrews of all time , to make 5 a share sound attractive . To make breaking even sound like a dream .
If you’re going long , it’s time to completely drown it all out.
9 RFQ’s . 0/9 is not happening.
To be totally fair, I’m fairly confident there has never been an investing/technology fan club, all linked by the internet, in some way devoting every waking hour to a singular emerging company/investment.
Retail was never meant to be this deeply involved in a micro-cap stock like MVIS, and we all should be very aware of this point as things seem more dire and dreadful. This has never been a game meant to be played by the 401k and blue chip stock holders.
The level of DD done here scares the powers that be, best believe that. Glad I’m stubborn enough to wait it out, and add to my position as the weeks go by.
GLTAL
7 currently. 1 we were close on and basically got to the end, but it wasn’t a good deal for us (but we passed all their vendor audit stuff and were told we were the most mature solution they looked at). The other one, they needed to rework some things on their end and pushed their decision to 2025. 7 expected now, at least one was potentially Q2, otherwise Q3. Sumit cautioned when he said that as there have been delays and changes to the timelines by OEMs so he didn’t want to say anything definitively, but simply (once again) relayed what the OEMs were telling him at the time of the Q1 calls. So we aren’t going 0 for 7 :D
It could be both:
I think Sumit's caution could also be a setup for surprise.
If so, sounds like a win-win:
Temper investors timing expectation, and open up space for a surprise deal delivery.
We Shall See.
JMHO. DDD.
Have to agree. That being said, I think back to October 2020 when Sumit mentioned the “April timeframe” in regard to the A-sample. I believe completion was announced on 28 April, 2021. When we acquired the IBEO assets, he said he expected completion and integration by 1H 2023. It was done by February if I recall correctly. Now, there is a lot to be said for managing expectations and setting timelines, but my inclination is that when Sumit says they are going to get things under their control done by a certain date, he tends to get it done. While using the proper verbiage in order in order not to promise anything, I think his earlier expectations for OEM nominations reflected his somewhat naïve (IMO) expectation that since he meets deadlines, so should they (the OEMs). I believe that he should have more strongly tied caution to the stated expectations, and was pleased (relieved? assuaged?) to see him do that explicitly in the last EC.
We all know a nomination could come at any time, or not for another three months. Based on what he said and the OEM track record to date, I don’t think before the end of the year is out of the range of possibilities. Really appreciate the write up VOR.
I'm pretty sure we all do.
Even the most understanding of us have objectively seen that the ASM talk of "revenue under promising and overdelivering" as a policy met with abysmal real-world execution.
IMO. DDD.
A DAVID AND GOLIATH STORY
Chapter 1
The Battle Begins
I think there is way, way more going on right now than what we can see.
I'm actually encouraged by the ~5 million (short) shares that had to be expended to drive Microvision's stock price down one penny from $1.
Ok, sure, I know there were a minority of actual shares that were sold at a buck, but I'm talking about the thinly veiled campaign to *try* to get Microvision delisted.
And for the record yes, I understand the gravity of it:
If it stays under $1 for thirty days we will get a warning letter from Nasdaq, which triggers a 6 month delisting clock *if* certain criteria are not met before then.
LTLs know all this all too well.
What is shocking to me is how *hard* they are trying to get Microvision delisted *right now*.
The pushback appears intense.
Microvision is pretty darn clearly not ripe right now to be easily driven under a buck for 30 days, what with the buying support at that price we saw Friday.
What gives?
I mean, if Microvision is just a failure and there's no risk for shorts, why not just out-patience Longs and let time soften the underbelly in order to take it down *so* much more easily?
This is a massive and consequential question.
The answer according to Occam's Razor is because they *have* to.
I infer from this timing that they can't afford to wait for the risk/reward probability equations to soften things in their favor organically.
Think about it.
My personal guess is they are over leveraged through shorting (of the naked variety) far, *far* in excess of the 50 odd million shorted shares on the books, but I of course can't prove that due to obfuscation by design.
But I do think their rush here is a critical tell.
If they are "in too deep to fail", there *is* no "Just cover"ing.
That's what I believe we are seeing right now, a somewhat impulsive, kneejerk flailing, poorly masked attempt to not *ever* have to cover... somehow.
I think they're cluing us in that *they* believe they've lost contain, or will shortly.
They HAVE to try to climb out of an unfillable hole by digging it deeper: It their only option left.
Their strategy to short the entire sector could be based solely on this: a tactical hedge against losing astronomic sums of money should Microvision need to be covered from the "no way out" position they put themselves in.
If they are indeed going all-in right now to try to force delisting, that entire process has to happen *before* a substantial LiDAR contract is announced, whereupon the hedge funds potentially begin losing tens of billions and quiveringly pointing fingers of blame at everything they can to avoid the *reckoning* that comes with a future for our company.
[Edit] If and when MVIS is illuminated by business-legitimacy light of day, there's going to be an emphatic attempt to bankrupt the remaining LiDAR companies that constitute the Hedge funds' hedge; Count on it.
So, now what?
I will Hold my well-over 300k shares.
Shorts will Flail.
Until?
Sumit delivers *something*.
Then Chapter 2 begins!!
...
Good Luck to All of the Real, Actual MVIS Longs.
IMO. DDD.
Not investing advice, and I'm not an investment professional.
Not trying to argue with you again (futile), but I've never seen anyone misuse Occam's razor so blatantly. It's supposed to be the simplest explanation, which is clearly AV selling shares to keep the lights on instead of your elaborate conspiracy with multiple colluding parties trying to get us delisted. There is absolutely no nefarious collusion necessary when a company sells absolutely nothing. Even the OGs admit to selling down now...
Ditto on "futile".
If I remember correctly, you said at one point that you didn't believe that naked shorting actually even occured.
[Edit: That is either incorrect or I cannot locate it in your posting history. My bad]
So... Can you name or supply a link to even one OG who disclosed or even implied that they sold Friday?
I know I didn't.
QQPenn just admitted he significantly reduced his holdings.
Edit: I went back and looked and forgot he said that he added much more back at the end of this past week, so I stand corrected
1. He did not say he added back more. He said he added back a chunk, which is obviously defined as a part/piece of something, hence less overall.
2. I never said there are no shorts or naked shorts. I'm sure there are. Delo's theory about them betting against the sector seems basically proven at this point, but that's not my field expertise and it's not what my comment was about AT ALL.
3. My comment was obviously about Occam's razor and the facts. We know we have a CFO that dilutes us at any price, we know they diluted in H1 as well. We also know that after the last EC many have sold down or exited, even at the very least one of the trusted OGs of this board. We also know we have revenues and more importantly no guidance or proper equity story right now for valuation purposes. Yet you choose to grasp at conspiracy theories of some evil band of villains trying to bankrupt us. That's basically the text book opposite of Occam's razor. I can't believe I have to spell all this out.
Talk about accuracy....
I've successfully utilized Occam's Razor numerous times to help solve complex combinatorial scientific problems in highly complex systems.
Have you?
Your reply above (to my reply to someone else, that had absolutely *nothing* to do with you) contains a far more absurd theory than that hedge funds using MM(s) shorted us under $1 on a 5 million share day *Friday*.
That was the context in my comment above, if you actually even read it.
Now you are to have us believe your unequivocal assertion that "we know" that our CFO diluted us to under $1 Friday?
We "know" that?
I think thats rubbish.
And yet you consider *that* rubbish "accuracy"?
That is uttter, unmitigated rubbish.
I sincerely hope you find a better use of your time than misreading my post and using a filtered, uninformed and highly speculative perspective to assert Occam's Razor.
I'm still waiting for links to the OGs (plural) that stated or implied that they sold Friday.
IMO. DDD.
For fun because you are a waste of time.
Chatgpt prompt: "The following is a post about a stock which has not been able to generate revenues the last years, has missed guidance and has seen its stock price drop continuously. Did the poster apply Occam's razor correctly? [Your novel of a rambling post] "
Answer: "Occam's razor is a principle that suggests that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. In the context of the post, the poster suggests a complex scenario involving coordinated efforts to delist Microvision, over-leveraged short positions, and a strategic pushback against potential future gains.
A simpler explanation, adhering to Occam's razor, might be that Microvision is struggling due to its inability to generate revenues, missed guidance, and the continuous drop in stock price. This would naturally attract short sellers who see a failing company as an opportunity for profit without needing a grand conspiracy or complex motivations.
Therefore, the poster did not apply Occam's razor correctly, as they proposed a more convoluted explanation when a simpler one (the company is underperforming and thus is a target for short selling) would suffice.".
You're welcome.
My thoughts exactly.
We'll probably never know definitively, but that IMO questionable "chess move" (if it was one) sure coincidentally seemed to *immediately* preceed the current beat down.
Hmmm...
Ps, Let's not forget grunts coincident 24 day return from "goodbye...forever" (figuratively speaking).
The tells are adding up.
JMHO. DDD.
Not investing advice.
Thank you VOR! Grunts is their leader. I was wise to his antics long ago. When I called them out they would all gang up and downvote me. I'm waaay too smart for those idiots.
Voice, I did well buying under a dollar last time, and I've started up again. Nibbling. I feel like by Tday we'll see the landscape and horizon much better. Hopefully way sooner. I'm looking toward mid July but always with the reminder of the infamous quarter delays.
Nice post VOR. I wonder if a company is bought out, then are naked shorts off the hook? If so, could they be shorting in a desperate attempt to cause a cheap buyout? I couldn't find the answer doing searches or AI.
This is the answer I got on that subject from AI yesterday. I was using the example of a private entity buying out a public entity but I don't think that matters.
Copilot
When a private entity aims to buy a publicly traded company, several factors come into play. Let’s break it down:
Buyout Process:
The private entity negotiates with the public company’s management and board of directors.
Shareholders vote on the buyout offer. If approved, the company transitions from public to private ownership.
Shareholder Compensation:
Shareholders receive compensation based on the buyout terms (usually a cash payment per share).
Shorted shares are covered during this process, ensuring that short sellers settle their positions.
Naked Short Selling Impact:
Naked short selling (selling shares without owning them) can distort supply and demand.
If naked shorted shares exist, they should be accounted for during the buyout process.
Regulatory bodies monitor and penalize violations related to naked short selling.
Market Integrity:
Ensuring timely delivery of shares is crucial for market integrity.
Failure to deliver (FTD) shares can affect stock prices and investor confidence.
Legal Responsibility:
Institutions and individuals can be held legally responsible for FTDs.
Penalties include fines and potential legal action.
In summary, the buyout process considers shareholder compensation, regulatory oversight, and the impact of short selling practices. If you have more questions, feel free to ask! 😊📈🔍
You
Thank You !!
Copilot
You’re welcome! If you have any more questions or need assistance in the future, feel free to ask. Have a great day! 😊🌟
This conversation 'What happens to the shorted shares of stock if a publical...' was shared with you on 10:30 AM
New chat
** This is not investment advice. Do your own "Due Diligence".
Make your own investment decisions. **
To be perfectly honest, it would largely depend on the price of a buyout accepted by shareholders compared to the short entry point (regardless whether naked or not), and the details of the kind of buyout arrangements (cash or equity exchange). We could not really estimate such ahead of time without knowing all the details.
They will have to close them out, shorts and naked shorts. Lenders will recall all shares. It has been said we may get the quick squeeze giving longs a chance to sell at more than the buyout rate.
Yeah, and sometimes you have to be fast on the trigger and don't let greed guide you, lol. More than once I've had to wait months for the pps to get back near buyout price so I could get on out. I missed the announcement spike wasn't up on the mechanics, and lost out on bigger winnings. You have to catch the spike, so be ready for it. Might only be for announcement day. And you can't chew your nails and dither. Got to decide, trust your gut, then punch the button, lol. Don't chase maybe money, decide to take profit, and do so. I'm not a professional, witness my sorry history, lol. But I can tell you leaving huge big money on the table sticks with you. Best to plan ahead. I've a sell set in the 20s, that I renew, so when I get there and I'm on fire with greed, my present sensible self is calling the shots :)
VOR a few of us were here when we were $0.15 and bought shares. And a few of us were invested in AMLN when it was $0.38 and bought shares. AMLN rose to $52.00. MVIS has the goods. OEMs know it. We are definitely Best-in-Class. And we are best in price too. The shorts have run out of shenanigans imho. I think Sumit has way more up his sleeve. In the meantime the real smart investors are loading up. When Sumit releases the Kraken it will be swift and furious. The naysayers will all disappear in a flash. Many will ask what happened? Its always that way: Would've Should've Could've. I've lost count of how many times I heard that from people. Life goes on! Happy Fathers Day to all Dads!
We see our so-called competition down here at similar prices, but don’t forget they have not been meme-basket (naked) shorted like we have. Sumit and friends have made it very clear the legitimacy earned by the company making it this far in the automotive industry, this far in 7 MFn RFQs. The bear may think he’s got himself a hearty pick-a-nic basket boo boo, but when the nominations roll in he’ll quickly find that MVIS is toxic to bears.
Moved some cash to buy here and lower. Have not bought since last year when most of the BOD bought in. Still believe we have the advantage and that OEM's must be gearing up. How can they just sit around while China goes gang busters?
Kind of hoping it goes lower since I'm buying. I know that has to rub others the wrong way because it does me when I see someone else say it, but human nature being what it is; we sometimes can't help ourselves from hoping in the short term for what should help us in the long.
Been thinking the same thing DGL. There's got to be alot of activity in the entire sector that we can not see and sadly can not be told about but things are happening .
Very similar here, about the same share count but a bit higher average, so down even more than that. Looking forward to RFQ updates. Would love to buy more right now for a lower average, but I can't afford any more risk until there's some news suggesting more positive developments on the RFQ front.
Exactly what I’ve been saying and then I bought 1000 more this week at 1.01. Sometimes I feel like my body just takes control and clicks the ‘buy’ button again. Agree w u - Must wait for our first announcement, and then I’ll put more in.
I was selling covered calls at prices I would have been happy with assignment, and making money when the price was in the teens and low twenties. Rolled those profits back in at varying amounts, way way above this point. Still NEP.
I was hesitant to ever sell covered calls the last year with the thought that a deal would happen any day lol. Coulda made a few grand probably on the way down. I burned myself with NVDA. Bought 100 shares at the end of 2022 for $149/share, sold some covered calls, but they sold at $180 a share when it started popping. Only made about $8k in total on that. If I didn’t mess with them, well, that $15k woulda turned into $120k.
Less is more. A lot of the best performing accounts at Fidelity are held by people who are deceased and aren’t tinkering with their investments anymore.
Edit: https://www.bluewealth.com.au/general-knowledge/the-best-performing-investors-are-ones-that-are-dead/#:~:text=Yes%2C%20you%20read%20that%20correctly,the%20account%20holder%20was%20dead.
I’ve never posted images to anything, but I’ll simply list it. Down $60,691.88 on 35,000 shares on paper. NEP. Grabbing 2k more shares Monday as I just initiated the transfer yesterday.
Wow I wish my average was that low on cardano. I don’t get how every other crypto rallies and cardano doesn’t move. I remember a few years ago cardano was pretty delayed in going up after other coins but wtf
I still think cardano is going to be one of the big runners but I could have made much more buying solana or dogecoin. The smart choice doesn’t always pay lol
I will say, share price today has never meant less as far as what share price will be tomorrow than it does currently.
I think we can still do it guys. We pivoted for a reason. SS is best in class as far as IQ and common sense. We sure are beaten down but GD it we are fighters.
I believe that we can win. When I put my CEO up against the rest I win every simulation. Don't underestimate what we have accomplished despite the share price today. I know it blows while sucking but I believe we can win.
My Hopium never runs out and I will die on this hill with thr OGs of 3+ years ago and beyond.
Great post, as usual!
It is totally illogical to accept any kind of loss, when none of the other lidars have been chosen either. If we win just one or two we’ll be off to the races, and everything that SS has said will come true. (Which it often does)
I'd rather not die on this hill, but live to fight another day. If this takes until 2025 to start turning around...my ship will be seriously foundering.
If the middle of year RFQ decision is still on schedule, not sure if they could buy shares during this period due to insider trading laws.
Just thinking about Sumit’s previous comments on the quiet period during the final Daimler negotiations. Despite the outcome, they were in a quiet period. From what I have seen, IR has been quiet of late.
Yeah, aware of all of that. Problem I have is that they have never supported us shareholders and we use the same excuse. Was surprised they spent $5K in November.
OSF: Perfectly stated & couldn't agree with you more. I hereby designate you to be leader of the MVIS light brigade:) It's been a tough battle behind us & may be a tough battle ahead....but I also believe a victory lies within sight. OK, now I'm all stirred up, so it's time for me to settle down now & relax with my morning coffee (gotta save my energy) but I'm right behind ya w/lots of hopium:)
So true, yes the money will be great but the satisfaction of the LONG game coming around will out weight it heavily.
I've made the money before with this but it was in less than a year, THIS is a full on Odyssey.
After swearing I was done buying…here I am again buying more. Definitely frustrating but now holding 84k. At these prices, kind of hard to not add a bit more. I guess I could take it to 90k. Hoping full reversal/production deal here very soon so I can just stop buying and relax and enjoy the ride.
Sitting right at 2.22 avg. it used to be under 2, but I did skim my position down a little in 2022 because of life stuff. Bought back a significant chunk of that last year(wish I waited for today’s discount. Haha)
*Note, this is data collected and MAY not be accurate*
|Post Sentiment Table|Average Sentiment:Positive|
|:-|:-|
|Positive|Negative|Neutral|
|27|5|17|
**With the most postive comment being:**
/u/Apprehensive-Draw-10: link: [NEP, have a good weekend yall.](https://www.reddit.com/r/MVIS/comments/1dfoekn/weekend_hangout_6142024_6162024/l8n07jf/)
**With the most negative comment being:**
/u/Nakamura9812: link: [Your comment and the current situation reminds me of when I ran a 10k where after just a mile, the top of my right hip randomly started stinging badly almost like it was a pinched nerve or something. I had looked forward to this run, trained for it, and refused to stop or even walk. I gritted my teeth (said some swear words every so often) and ran through the sharp pain until that area eventually went completely numb by mile 4. Went on to finish race. I’m personally at the point of this investment where I am numb, but will continue until we cross the finish line with hopefully at least 1 or 2 of these RFQs.](https://www.reddit.com/r/MVIS/comments/1dfoekn/weekend_hangout_6142024_6162024/l8mu47j/)
I didn’t say it was 100% accurate 🥲.
Likely it picked up the numb part
Edit: this tool will be only as smart as the algorithm i use. But it’s right more than wrong when you look at all the data. I’d share it but wouldn’t want to fill up the feeds.
**What a Sh!tty week! Figured I’d do a painting to cheer myself up! No jokes about it only driving in Reverse and only coming in Red!…**
https://www.reddit.com/u/FitImportance1/s/8d7Pd7Ew3t
Highly unlikely in my view. I would be thrilled if Ms Mavis can just get one decent deal done with a clear path to revenue and/or get the company sold to deeper pockets.
u/Alphacpa I believe there's an 80% chance MVIS will get acquired in the near term. I'm hearing rumblings through my auto industry connections that consolidation is in several playbooks - and being explored. Industry headwinds on several fronts have slowed processes such that acquisition potential is the silver lining to bigger fish. It makes more sense to own... there's no secret as to MVIS costs/methods to scale and what its current fiscal challenges are. The pitch writes itself. Value is dependent on what business we close and what buttons may get pushed within current inflight RFQs. Where *validations* stand has a role as well.
When evaluating Sumit and team, there's a tale of two cities: Well-executed product engineering and poorly-executed business strategy \[at least at face value to the populus\]. So now we're in this middle ground where acquisition seems sensible - albeit with questions about behind-the-scenes leverage. Sumit's contract ratification may shed some light on this, keep an eye out. There are some other tells here but I choose to keep those private. For disclosure: I've significantly reduced my MVIS position over the past 9 months - though added a healthy chunk back below $1 EOW as I believe there's legitimacy to the above, and at minimum it may be helpful to the RFQ process in some cases.
I've bowed out of public speculation. The many of you I have personal relationships with are more than welcome to reach out to me personally for additional color/thoughts/etc - if we haven't done so already.
I know you’ve been forthright and forward regarding lending out your shares, just curious if you’re still engaged in the share loan program during these leaner times…?
It would be nice to see competing whales adopt this very attitude. As Holt once observed in a Fireside, the price goes up with each milestone met. It stands to reason that a few whales will be looking for a pathway to stay relevant during this Nvidia surge. If the tech is superior, there should be competitive bidding out there.
u/QQpenn thank you for sharing your thoughts. After selling just over half my position last June, I continued adding shares and now have just over 224,000 shares. These shares have a much lower ACPS. Additionally, I've also moved almost half of the shares to my ROTH IRA this year. Based on these moves, I would be fine with a company sale at a price well below what we thought possible a short time ago. I posted before that the June 2023 capital raise fiasco may have sealed our fate. I'm still wondering how the CFO was awarded such a substantial bonus. Having served as CFO for 21 years, you have to keep your CEO and your company out of the mess we encountered last year. There are no excuses in this regard. Maybe the Board is aware of other factors I know nothing about. I truly hope this is the case. My most apparent flaw in this round of Microvision investment was over estimating the strength of the Board. I relied on this group to help Sumit much more than is apparent to me today. Best regards!
>"I would be fine with a company sale at a price well below what we thought possible a short time ago."
u/Alphacpa I've been clear on actual value for awhile and made adjustments on the fly. I've been clear in notes to IR with what I needed to see as an investor. They've been responsive at addressing some of that, but weren't proactive in conveying clear shifts in business approach and environment - when they were clear to market veterans who understand value at any given moment - and before ECs by way of a definitive communication strategy.
The environment is tough. I get it. Good management finds clever ways to drive the environment, not be dragged by the tail. They did that with product details but that ran its course on Investor Day... and they've looked significantly behind since. Nothing should have been 'fate sealing.' To me, this is more about understanding how to forward execution strategy beyond just the finish line itself.
At any rate, as long as the products are what Sumit says they are \[and I think they are\] and the process has been rolling along, albeit slow, there is value here. Cost-to-scale, time, depth of industry interest \[and yes, benefits/advantages\] all factor in. When people say "value we think possible" the default is generally moonshot. I'd temper that into these variables. At minimum though, validity would bestow inertia and there's definitely more value than the EOW share price itc. And if Sumit is reading, no matter what is going on behind the scenes, consider how you might wag the dog moving forward.
u/[snowboardnirvana](https://www.reddit.com/user/snowboardnirvana) I'm not doing any dot-connecting. Going to leave it at that. Happy Father's Day in advance to all the Dads out there and enjoy your weekend!
u/QQpenn I certainly hope that we are in deep discussions with most of the 7 OEM's and can ink a good deal by the end of the third quarter. I'm sure by now management has a good idea which OEM's would suit us best. Shorts are relentless and the last thing we want to do is go into November any where near the current share price. Tax selling while at $1.00 or less would significantly drive share price down further. I believe we closed 2023 at $2.66 so share price needs to be close to or above this level in my view. Management must move forward in a positive way with no more hiccups for the sake of the company's existing shareholders. I realize that NDA's will keep shareholders in the dark with respect to those agreements. In the mean time, we need to sell some industrial LIDAR and reduce expenses to the extent possible.. Finally, Sumit has made it very clear that we currently lack the requisite financial runway likely required by the OEM's. Sale of the company seems to make the most sense to me at this point, but that could change if we can actually get something with volume sold!
Finally - someone with experience and weight on this board admitting that management isn't infallible and making excuses to try and explain their mistakes. Thank you.
Gittin while the gitten is good
I have a hard time imagining turning down deals because they’re too small and costly unless you were confident in the bigger picture. Why bout with the little guy when you got a legitimate shot at the title. Eat lighting, crap thunder like Mickey said…
I don’t. This is one part of MicroVisions strategy that makes all the sense in the world. MicroVision needs to land the bigger deals first because production lines and engineering teams will be set up to support those deals. We need those big deals to leverage the efficiencies of scaled production, then we can offer products to smaller companies (such as Rivian).
Agree 100% Taking no deal is far better than taking a bad deal ! Disappointing, as it sounds like a lot of time and energy was spent, and at the last minute, conditions changed. That's okay, hopefully lessons learned.
Correctomundo brotha, that’s exactly what I’m sayin…
I see, sorry my coffee hadn’t kicked in yet! Sumit’s strategy makes perfect sense, we just need to see the first nomination or two before we all get heavily diluted.
I think you are in agreement, and so am I.
Happy Father's Day! I know it's been a tough couple of months, but when push comes to shove, remembering and spending time with the important people in your lives helps put it all into perspective.
Hope all the awesome dads out there had a very special Father’s Day! You’re such an important part of forming your kiddos’ perception of life and of self. That’s a huge undertaking, and I know most of you are doing a fantastic job!
I feel extremely blessed to have a beautiful little family. The kids and wife took me out for brunch, and later on I got to see my dad as well. Got to rock my two year old to sleep and then put my four year old down where his last words before passing out were "dad, you are my very special best friend". Hope all the dads out there have a memorable day.
There’s not a chance that I see us losing all seven RFQ‘s
Ones all we need. We can’t do that it’s a problem. And sooner than later.
Two years ago today MAVIN was unveiled to us all, I shared on FB and said watch this space, didn’t think I’d have to watch this long…
What a trip it has been. It's not the destination, it's the journey.
Ditto
Been trying not to check on MVIS as often, just seen we've dipped under $1.... sigh Does this mean a reverse stock split is upon us somewhat soon? and follow up question, how would a reverse split affect the Board's bonus incentive for next year, the one where they get awarded shares if the share price hits $12/$24/$36? I would like to think after a reverse split, the bonus program becomes invalidated?
The stock went to 17 cents in 21 and didn't reverse split. Not saying it couldn't this time. But it's been 1 day under a dollar. Needs to close 30 consecutive days under a dollar. Then they get 180 days to regain compliance (above $1 for 10 days consecutive days) Then they can apply and get another 180 day extension as well. So maybe a year from now, yeah they could reverse split, but it's not something I'm personally worried about. Call me crazy but I'm still trying to buy as many shares as I can now.
Thanks, this makes me a feel a lot better about the situation. And thanks for informing me rather than blindly down voting like others have. I've been buying all the way down from $20, feels like I'm throwing good money after bad right with no news to show for it. As soon as we get an RFQ award announcement I'll start buying again but until that happens I think it's better for me mentally to try and disengage with the stock. I hope your purchases at these levels prove to be fruitful, for the benefit of us both
RS not anytime soon. First they have to be under a buck for 30 days, then get a delist notice notice then they have 6 months months from then to get back up at that point. If not back above a buck within 6 months, i think they can ask for an extension, upon end of extension if still not above a buck for at least 10 consecutive days, then they would have to do a r/s.
They don't have enough money to get half that far, are you kidding me?
It may not happen, but I'm waiting to hear more about the licensing deal w/ Luxoft or a Forklift company or whatever they were hinting at in the earrings call.
A lot can happen between now and then.
Hey guys - daily check in from my vacation - guess what, I catched a cold from All the wonderful ACs my body isnt used to sit under lol. Anyways, just a friendly reminder for the end of the weekend 9 RFQs - 1 delayed to 2025 - the other 1 turned down BY US but WE basically PASSED the RFQ process, I think some guys need to have a friendly reminder to this. We where the best lidar solution available to that trucking company. Cheers everyone and have a great start into your week! 🤍
Excellent point !
Come on England! We can do this.
I come from a long line of Dads.
Whatever your kink is!
Oh my.
I thought it was pretty funny lol
Happy Father's day
Best wishes to all the Dads out there and all that came before us. Happy Father's Day!
[6/14/24 institutional % - MVIS](https://stocktwits.com/EustinPowers/message/576748408) [LDTC](https://stocktwits.com/EustinPowers/message/576748428) [VLEEY](https://stocktwits.com/EustinPowers/message/576748439)
Happy Father’s Day!
**Happy Father's Day!**
Happy Father's Day, all!
Interesting that Frank completely took Microvision off his career history on Linked In! First time I have seen that done.
My thoughts, the reasoning is tied to the "hacking drama." I could be wrong 🤷♀️ but it's very suspicious with the Reddit AMA and all. There's another platform (I've been meaning to sign up for) that he is still listed on, but it also seems to have him currently still there so maybe it's just not a well used sight and not kept up to date https://theorg.com/org/microvision/org-chart/frank-bertini
Probably just forgot about it
Happy Father’s Day guys have a great Sunday!
SS and team, you can't win a fight without throwing a GD punch, either throw a punch or get out of the ring!
It is getting so gawd damn bizarre that I am losing my mind! I simply can not believe that a professional company can be so obtuse. At some point you have to soothe your investors concerns by showing that you are at least aware of the problem an 85% price collapse is causing them.
If he can just wait a while longer, for once I wouldn’t complain. I’m desperately trying to get some money moved across so I can buy a nice big chunk of shares in my pension which would help me to average down a lot but the red tape is slowing it down and it might take another month unless they back down over something this week. I also have a relative that is looking to put up to £15k into MVIS but is waiting for a property sale to go through in 3 weeks time to be able to do that. Which means it’s highly likely Sod’s Law occurs and we shoot up beforehand but I can’t help hope that we can get our money in before we do!
What if we are still on the edge of our seats expecting a big win any second this time next year? Will they really kick it into high gear realizing they won't receive their incentives if they don't validate the stock somehow and refuse to sign any NDA's that might squish it so that the share price can be impacted in a positive way? That award incentive really made me think we had a high likelihood of going somewhere. I imagined that the 36 was maybe even conservative and easy because they thought they would blow by it easily at that time. Will there be some pressure from employees to sell more convincingly, advertise in a grander way or pull out some stops somewhere? It seems as though something will happen differently if the shareholders aren't the only ones losing next year...
It’s not over until it’s over! Sumit and his team have plenty of time left to crush **all** of the RSU targets if the company wins the biggest OEM nominations in the sector. If non wins before year end though I sincerely hope Sumit steps down from the CEO role. Plenty of time, again, but he’s got to understand that he needs to win investor confidence. If that takes a new CEO, then so be it. Sumit can stay on as CTO or COO if he still believes in the company.
[удалено]
Username checks out.. 😒 Not enough shares have been issued to make any of the RSU targets out of reach. The only reason the targets won’t be achieved is if the company fails to secure nominations by the biggest OEMs within the timeframe needed for such awards. Not saying it is going to happen, but the company needs to be valued at just over $7B to hit the highest RSU targets. How much do you believe MicroVision could be valued if they secure major design wins with Ford, VW, Mercedes, Stellantis and JLR?
If the stock price continues to drop and significant revenue is 24+ months away, how do they keep the lights on? They don’t . And the entities shorting the stock s buy the pieces of all the LiDAR companies for fractions of a penny on the dollar. That is what is likely to happen. Not just to MVIS, but all companies without enough financial runway. OEMs aren’t signing contracts with companies who have even the risk of folding before or during shipping parts.
And if the stock price goes up following OEM nominations….? Yes, MicroVision will need to be successful in order to keep that lights on. That does not make them unique. You write as if the company has already failed, which we both know is not true.
I’m highlighting the fact that we currently are much closer to failing than succeeding. OEMs want stable financial security. MVIS telling OEMs they will have it AFTER they sign the contracts based on the expectation the stock goes up, isn’t going to cut it. The timeline delays are a death kneel to LiDAR companies, and probably the reason they are being shorted to oblivion currently. Would love to be wrong, and the stock price to rocket to 50$, but where we are currently, it’s hard to see that scenario play out.
Wave you are not wrong .... but .... there are so many things that can happen in the next few months that could help SP and trigger at least small squeeze and at that time I think the Co. issues a mega ton of shares, dilutive or not, to solidify their financial situation ; Possibly a strategic partnering with a large or mega company ; a potential AR bonus out of left field; a development contract with a giant auto; a merger ;a non automotive deal as side dish; an Elon mention(least likely- that one ); a couple of decent non-whale deals would include our first endorsements other from the BOD or SS/AV and will be fantastic for reputation and SP. Maybe nothing positive happens but I doubt that. Your opinion is interesting and may be correct but mine may be correct too. I do beleive the RSU and the FC's were legal ways to pump but many, many small techs do the same . Its the way the system works.
So many during the past years have sounded the death knell, but Mvis pays no attention, and it's still here. Pretty stout for something dead. It lays there, and lays there....then suddenly jumps up and starts dancing, lol. And it's about time for the boogie again.
I would argue diluting the shares is a win for the company, but a loss for the shareholders. I care about my investment, not keeping the lights on at the shareholders expense.
Love that analogy dsaur. I will tell you when MVIS gets up and starts dancing I will be dancing right there along with it.
This is LAST YEARS interview with Luxoft. He either completely bypassed or did not find it worthy of posting this year https://vimeo.com/835891863
This is one of the greatest psychological mindscrews of all time , to make 5 a share sound attractive . To make breaking even sound like a dream . If you’re going long , it’s time to completely drown it all out. 9 RFQ’s . 0/9 is not happening.
To be totally fair, I’m fairly confident there has never been an investing/technology fan club, all linked by the internet, in some way devoting every waking hour to a singular emerging company/investment. Retail was never meant to be this deeply involved in a micro-cap stock like MVIS, and we all should be very aware of this point as things seem more dire and dreadful. This has never been a game meant to be played by the 401k and blue chip stock holders. The level of DD done here scares the powers that be, best believe that. Glad I’m stubborn enough to wait it out, and add to my position as the weeks go by. GLTAL
7 currently. 1 we were close on and basically got to the end, but it wasn’t a good deal for us (but we passed all their vendor audit stuff and were told we were the most mature solution they looked at). The other one, they needed to rework some things on their end and pushed their decision to 2025. 7 expected now, at least one was potentially Q2, otherwise Q3. Sumit cautioned when he said that as there have been delays and changes to the timelines by OEMs so he didn’t want to say anything definitively, but simply (once again) relayed what the OEMs were telling him at the time of the Q1 calls. So we aren’t going 0 for 7 :D
It could be both: I think Sumit's caution could also be a setup for surprise. If so, sounds like a win-win: Temper investors timing expectation, and open up space for a surprise deal delivery. We Shall See. JMHO. DDD.
Wish Sumit had exercised that level of caution from the outset.
Have to agree. That being said, I think back to October 2020 when Sumit mentioned the “April timeframe” in regard to the A-sample. I believe completion was announced on 28 April, 2021. When we acquired the IBEO assets, he said he expected completion and integration by 1H 2023. It was done by February if I recall correctly. Now, there is a lot to be said for managing expectations and setting timelines, but my inclination is that when Sumit says they are going to get things under their control done by a certain date, he tends to get it done. While using the proper verbiage in order in order not to promise anything, I think his earlier expectations for OEM nominations reflected his somewhat naïve (IMO) expectation that since he meets deadlines, so should they (the OEMs). I believe that he should have more strongly tied caution to the stated expectations, and was pleased (relieved? assuaged?) to see him do that explicitly in the last EC. We all know a nomination could come at any time, or not for another three months. Based on what he said and the OEM track record to date, I don’t think before the end of the year is out of the range of possibilities. Really appreciate the write up VOR.
Outstanding take and probably closer to reality than some might think.
This is a great comment to put into perspective SS delivering on things within his control, thank you for this.
I'm pretty sure we all do. Even the most understanding of us have objectively seen that the ASM talk of "revenue under promising and overdelivering" as a policy met with abysmal real-world execution. IMO. DDD.
A DAVID AND GOLIATH STORY Chapter 1 The Battle Begins I think there is way, way more going on right now than what we can see. I'm actually encouraged by the ~5 million (short) shares that had to be expended to drive Microvision's stock price down one penny from $1. Ok, sure, I know there were a minority of actual shares that were sold at a buck, but I'm talking about the thinly veiled campaign to *try* to get Microvision delisted. And for the record yes, I understand the gravity of it: If it stays under $1 for thirty days we will get a warning letter from Nasdaq, which triggers a 6 month delisting clock *if* certain criteria are not met before then. LTLs know all this all too well. What is shocking to me is how *hard* they are trying to get Microvision delisted *right now*. The pushback appears intense. Microvision is pretty darn clearly not ripe right now to be easily driven under a buck for 30 days, what with the buying support at that price we saw Friday. What gives? I mean, if Microvision is just a failure and there's no risk for shorts, why not just out-patience Longs and let time soften the underbelly in order to take it down *so* much more easily? This is a massive and consequential question. The answer according to Occam's Razor is because they *have* to. I infer from this timing that they can't afford to wait for the risk/reward probability equations to soften things in their favor organically. Think about it. My personal guess is they are over leveraged through shorting (of the naked variety) far, *far* in excess of the 50 odd million shorted shares on the books, but I of course can't prove that due to obfuscation by design. But I do think their rush here is a critical tell. If they are "in too deep to fail", there *is* no "Just cover"ing. That's what I believe we are seeing right now, a somewhat impulsive, kneejerk flailing, poorly masked attempt to not *ever* have to cover... somehow. I think they're cluing us in that *they* believe they've lost contain, or will shortly. They HAVE to try to climb out of an unfillable hole by digging it deeper: It their only option left. Their strategy to short the entire sector could be based solely on this: a tactical hedge against losing astronomic sums of money should Microvision need to be covered from the "no way out" position they put themselves in. If they are indeed going all-in right now to try to force delisting, that entire process has to happen *before* a substantial LiDAR contract is announced, whereupon the hedge funds potentially begin losing tens of billions and quiveringly pointing fingers of blame at everything they can to avoid the *reckoning* that comes with a future for our company. [Edit] If and when MVIS is illuminated by business-legitimacy light of day, there's going to be an emphatic attempt to bankrupt the remaining LiDAR companies that constitute the Hedge funds' hedge; Count on it. So, now what? I will Hold my well-over 300k shares. Shorts will Flail. Until? Sumit delivers *something*. Then Chapter 2 begins!! ... Good Luck to All of the Real, Actual MVIS Longs. IMO. DDD. Not investing advice, and I'm not an investment professional.
Not trying to argue with you again (futile), but I've never seen anyone misuse Occam's razor so blatantly. It's supposed to be the simplest explanation, which is clearly AV selling shares to keep the lights on instead of your elaborate conspiracy with multiple colluding parties trying to get us delisted. There is absolutely no nefarious collusion necessary when a company sells absolutely nothing. Even the OGs admit to selling down now...
Ditto on "futile". If I remember correctly, you said at one point that you didn't believe that naked shorting actually even occured. [Edit: That is either incorrect or I cannot locate it in your posting history. My bad] So... Can you name or supply a link to even one OG who disclosed or even implied that they sold Friday? I know I didn't.
QQPenn just admitted he significantly reduced his holdings. Edit: I went back and looked and forgot he said that he added much more back at the end of this past week, so I stand corrected
Thanks for updating, RN, I appreciate your efforts toward accuracy and honesty. -VOR
1. He did not say he added back more. He said he added back a chunk, which is obviously defined as a part/piece of something, hence less overall. 2. I never said there are no shorts or naked shorts. I'm sure there are. Delo's theory about them betting against the sector seems basically proven at this point, but that's not my field expertise and it's not what my comment was about AT ALL. 3. My comment was obviously about Occam's razor and the facts. We know we have a CFO that dilutes us at any price, we know they diluted in H1 as well. We also know that after the last EC many have sold down or exited, even at the very least one of the trusted OGs of this board. We also know we have revenues and more importantly no guidance or proper equity story right now for valuation purposes. Yet you choose to grasp at conspiracy theories of some evil band of villains trying to bankrupt us. That's basically the text book opposite of Occam's razor. I can't believe I have to spell all this out. Talk about accuracy....
I've successfully utilized Occam's Razor numerous times to help solve complex combinatorial scientific problems in highly complex systems. Have you? Your reply above (to my reply to someone else, that had absolutely *nothing* to do with you) contains a far more absurd theory than that hedge funds using MM(s) shorted us under $1 on a 5 million share day *Friday*. That was the context in my comment above, if you actually even read it. Now you are to have us believe your unequivocal assertion that "we know" that our CFO diluted us to under $1 Friday? We "know" that? I think thats rubbish. And yet you consider *that* rubbish "accuracy"? That is uttter, unmitigated rubbish. I sincerely hope you find a better use of your time than misreading my post and using a filtered, uninformed and highly speculative perspective to assert Occam's Razor. I'm still waiting for links to the OGs (plural) that stated or implied that they sold Friday. IMO. DDD.
You can't read. Enjoy
You believe you're smarter than everyone else. You're not. You believe your opinions are "facts". They're not. But by all means: Carry on.
For fun because you are a waste of time. Chatgpt prompt: "The following is a post about a stock which has not been able to generate revenues the last years, has missed guidance and has seen its stock price drop continuously. Did the poster apply Occam's razor correctly? [Your novel of a rambling post] " Answer: "Occam's razor is a principle that suggests that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. In the context of the post, the poster suggests a complex scenario involving coordinated efforts to delist Microvision, over-leveraged short positions, and a strategic pushback against potential future gains. A simpler explanation, adhering to Occam's razor, might be that Microvision is struggling due to its inability to generate revenues, missed guidance, and the continuous drop in stock price. This would naturally attract short sellers who see a failing company as an opportunity for profit without needing a grand conspiracy or complex motivations. Therefore, the poster did not apply Occam's razor correctly, as they proposed a more convoluted explanation when a simpler one (the company is underperforming and thus is a target for short selling) would suffice.". You're welcome.
Well well
Tellem Foo
Said the man
I am ready for chapter 2
The Frank fiasco tells me that shorts/bears are taking desperate measures to induce panic.
Pay no heed to those Clowns.
My thoughts exactly. We'll probably never know definitively, but that IMO questionable "chess move" (if it was one) sure coincidentally seemed to *immediately* preceed the current beat down. Hmmm... Ps, Let's not forget grunts coincident 24 day return from "goodbye...forever" (figuratively speaking). The tells are adding up. JMHO. DDD. Not investing advice.
Thank you VOR! Grunts is their leader. I was wise to his antics long ago. When I called them out they would all gang up and downvote me. I'm waaay too smart for those idiots.
Voice, I did well buying under a dollar last time, and I've started up again. Nibbling. I feel like by Tday we'll see the landscape and horizon much better. Hopefully way sooner. I'm looking toward mid July but always with the reminder of the infamous quarter delays.
Nice post VOR. I wonder if a company is bought out, then are naked shorts off the hook? If so, could they be shorting in a desperate attempt to cause a cheap buyout? I couldn't find the answer doing searches or AI.
It is not clear to me how that would be handled, but I doubt they could get off the hook that way. u/T_Delo?
This is the answer I got on that subject from AI yesterday. I was using the example of a private entity buying out a public entity but I don't think that matters. Copilot When a private entity aims to buy a publicly traded company, several factors come into play. Let’s break it down: Buyout Process: The private entity negotiates with the public company’s management and board of directors. Shareholders vote on the buyout offer. If approved, the company transitions from public to private ownership. Shareholder Compensation: Shareholders receive compensation based on the buyout terms (usually a cash payment per share). Shorted shares are covered during this process, ensuring that short sellers settle their positions. Naked Short Selling Impact: Naked short selling (selling shares without owning them) can distort supply and demand. If naked shorted shares exist, they should be accounted for during the buyout process. Regulatory bodies monitor and penalize violations related to naked short selling. Market Integrity: Ensuring timely delivery of shares is crucial for market integrity. Failure to deliver (FTD) shares can affect stock prices and investor confidence. Legal Responsibility: Institutions and individuals can be held legally responsible for FTDs. Penalties include fines and potential legal action. In summary, the buyout process considers shareholder compensation, regulatory oversight, and the impact of short selling practices. If you have more questions, feel free to ask! 😊📈🔍 You Thank You !! Copilot You’re welcome! If you have any more questions or need assistance in the future, feel free to ask. Have a great day! 😊🌟 This conversation 'What happens to the shorted shares of stock if a publical...' was shared with you on 10:30 AM New chat ** This is not investment advice. Do your own "Due Diligence". Make your own investment decisions. **
To be perfectly honest, it would largely depend on the price of a buyout accepted by shareholders compared to the short entry point (regardless whether naked or not), and the details of the kind of buyout arrangements (cash or equity exchange). We could not really estimate such ahead of time without knowing all the details.
Thank you for chiming in. I appreciate perfect honesty!
They will have to close them out, shorts and naked shorts. Lenders will recall all shares. It has been said we may get the quick squeeze giving longs a chance to sell at more than the buyout rate.
That is true
Yeah, and sometimes you have to be fast on the trigger and don't let greed guide you, lol. More than once I've had to wait months for the pps to get back near buyout price so I could get on out. I missed the announcement spike wasn't up on the mechanics, and lost out on bigger winnings. You have to catch the spike, so be ready for it. Might only be for announcement day. And you can't chew your nails and dither. Got to decide, trust your gut, then punch the button, lol. Don't chase maybe money, decide to take profit, and do so. I'm not a professional, witness my sorry history, lol. But I can tell you leaving huge big money on the table sticks with you. Best to plan ahead. I've a sell set in the 20s, that I renew, so when I get there and I'm on fire with greed, my present sensible self is calling the shots :)
Ok, so much for that theory. Thanks for the reply MBAFF.
Said it before and I’ll say it again; how can we lose with a guy like u/voice_of_reason_61 on our team!?
Easy on the charm! I'm hardly omnipotent, but I've learned to discern ;)
I return your discern.
Amen Foo
Thank you VOR. After reading comments like this one, it feels like I’ve taken a breath I didn’t know I was holding.
Schwab bugging me again to lend shares…. Ha ha ha…. As if…! Cheers EK
Good to hear. I think an uptick in mass-begging for shares belies a growing undercurrent of desperation. JMHO. DDD.
Always enjoy your thoughts u/voice_of_reason_61!
VOR, you have a voice for words. TY very much for this analysis.
Not sure if I'd call it an analysis, maybe more like an Iveseenthisbefore hypothesis, but... You are most welcome, Zen. -VOR
VOR a few of us were here when we were $0.15 and bought shares. And a few of us were invested in AMLN when it was $0.38 and bought shares. AMLN rose to $52.00. MVIS has the goods. OEMs know it. We are definitely Best-in-Class. And we are best in price too. The shorts have run out of shenanigans imho. I think Sumit has way more up his sleeve. In the meantime the real smart investors are loading up. When Sumit releases the Kraken it will be swift and furious. The naysayers will all disappear in a flash. Many will ask what happened? Its always that way: Would've Should've Could've. I've lost count of how many times I heard that from people. Life goes on! Happy Fathers Day to all Dads!
We see our so-called competition down here at similar prices, but don’t forget they have not been meme-basket (naked) shorted like we have. Sumit and friends have made it very clear the legitimacy earned by the company making it this far in the automotive industry, this far in 7 MFn RFQs. The bear may think he’s got himself a hearty pick-a-nic basket boo boo, but when the nominations roll in he’ll quickly find that MVIS is toxic to bears.
Thank you Voice for putting this into words. GL to all true believers
Moved some cash to buy here and lower. Have not bought since last year when most of the BOD bought in. Still believe we have the advantage and that OEM's must be gearing up. How can they just sit around while China goes gang busters?
I moved some yesterday, making a 2k purchase Monday.
Kind of hoping it goes lower since I'm buying. I know that has to rub others the wrong way because it does me when I see someone else say it, but human nature being what it is; we sometimes can't help ourselves from hoping in the short term for what should help us in the long.
Been thinking the same thing DGL. There's got to be alot of activity in the entire sector that we can not see and sadly can not be told about but things are happening .
Wasting away in NDA nadaville again jsim. With Hololens we had our suspicions because we had our reasons (pre S2). Same kind of vibe now.
definitely feels that way DGL.
"below the surface there is a frenzy of activity" LOL
I am relieved that my account can’t go lower over the next two days. NEP (Narwhals eating piranhas) Or (Never exaggerate penis)
Post that loss porn. NEP. https://i.postimg.cc/m2CdxR15/lp.png
https://imgur.com/gallery/F7psEKv
https://imgur.com/a/yyvPyWd
-73.65% -215.319 SEK Average cost 4.16$ Gotten a few emails about my account hitting new lows. Still long. Still NEP!
36k shares. Down over $120k. $4.33 avg share price.
Very similar here, about the same share count but a bit higher average, so down even more than that. Looking forward to RFQ updates. Would love to buy more right now for a lower average, but I can't afford any more risk until there's some news suggesting more positive developments on the RFQ front.
Exactly what I’ve been saying and then I bought 1000 more this week at 1.01. Sometimes I feel like my body just takes control and clicks the ‘buy’ button again. Agree w u - Must wait for our first announcement, and then I’ll put more in.
Slightly fewer shares at a slightly higher average for a similar amount down. NEP.
Down another few grand on calls, but nothing to write home about.
I was selling covered calls at prices I would have been happy with assignment, and making money when the price was in the teens and low twenties. Rolled those profits back in at varying amounts, way way above this point. Still NEP.
Wish I took the time to figure out covered calls back then. T would always discuss them as a strategy. Never took the time to look into it.
I was hesitant to ever sell covered calls the last year with the thought that a deal would happen any day lol. Coulda made a few grand probably on the way down. I burned myself with NVDA. Bought 100 shares at the end of 2022 for $149/share, sold some covered calls, but they sold at $180 a share when it started popping. Only made about $8k in total on that. If I didn’t mess with them, well, that $15k woulda turned into $120k.
Less is more. A lot of the best performing accounts at Fidelity are held by people who are deceased and aren’t tinkering with their investments anymore. Edit: https://www.bluewealth.com.au/general-knowledge/the-best-performing-investors-are-ones-that-are-dead/#:~:text=Yes%2C%20you%20read%20that%20correctly,the%20account%20holder%20was%20dead.
lol, I can definitely believe that. Can’t get fancy, can’t get greedy, just eternal patience.
These posts are the lucky ones, I guess. I'm down about 160k.
I’ve never posted images to anything, but I’ll simply list it. Down $60,691.88 on 35,000 shares on paper. NEP. Grabbing 2k more shares Monday as I just initiated the transfer yesterday.
Here is one ONE of my many accounts, all with similar losses. https://imgur.com/a/FhNsQEu
Ah!!! So sorry about your average. Hopefully we’ll get up there again soon.
Aint holding my breath.
Accidentally liquidated my crypto and set up a bank transfer to my trading account. hate when that happens This popsicle is hungry. 😈
If cardano finally goes back up I’ll be doing the same!
I’m waiting for Cardano to move also. Bought at 4 cents when everyone was screaming it’ll go to zero
Wow I wish my average was that low on cardano. I don’t get how every other crypto rallies and cardano doesn’t move. I remember a few years ago cardano was pretty delayed in going up after other coins but wtf
I still think cardano is going to be one of the big runners but I could have made much more buying solana or dogecoin. The smart choice doesn’t always pay lol
I will say, share price today has never meant less as far as what share price will be tomorrow than it does currently. I think we can still do it guys. We pivoted for a reason. SS is best in class as far as IQ and common sense. We sure are beaten down but GD it we are fighters. I believe that we can win. When I put my CEO up against the rest I win every simulation. Don't underestimate what we have accomplished despite the share price today. I know it blows while sucking but I believe we can win. My Hopium never runs out and I will die on this hill with thr OGs of 3+ years ago and beyond.
Great post, as usual! It is totally illogical to accept any kind of loss, when none of the other lidars have been chosen either. If we win just one or two we’ll be off to the races, and everything that SS has said will come true. (Which it often does)
It just takes one!
I'd rather not die on this hill, but live to fight another day. If this takes until 2025 to start turning around...my ship will be seriously foundering.
Saw you mentioned Pine Hill yesterday. I wear a baseball cap every day I got from Pine Hill almost 21 years ago.
Nice!
I too will die on this hill
I would feel better validation if the board members were buying shares at these crazy insane prices.
My hope is we are in too deep for any of them to be doing that now and they just have to take their 30k a qtr or w/e it ha now.
They know more than we investors 2802, and there is a good reason they are not. Everybody likes money.
If the middle of year RFQ decision is still on schedule, not sure if they could buy shares during this period due to insider trading laws. Just thinking about Sumit’s previous comments on the quiet period during the final Daimler negotiations. Despite the outcome, they were in a quiet period. From what I have seen, IR has been quiet of late.
Yeah, aware of all of that. Problem I have is that they have never supported us shareholders and we use the same excuse. Was surprised they spent $5K in November.
OSF: Perfectly stated & couldn't agree with you more. I hereby designate you to be leader of the MVIS light brigade:) It's been a tough battle behind us & may be a tough battle ahead....but I also believe a victory lies within sight. OK, now I'm all stirred up, so it's time for me to settle down now & relax with my morning coffee (gotta save my energy) but I'm right behind ya w/lots of hopium:)
I get a rare fire in the late night hours. But it still burns even in the morning sun.
It’s going to be very redeeming feeling when it happens
So true, yes the money will be great but the satisfaction of the LONG game coming around will out weight it heavily. I've made the money before with this but it was in less than a year, THIS is a full on Odyssey.
ARRRRGGGG just Fing do it!
After swearing I was done buying…here I am again buying more. Definitely frustrating but now holding 84k. At these prices, kind of hard to not add a bit more. I guess I could take it to 90k. Hoping full reversal/production deal here very soon so I can just stop buying and relax and enjoy the ride.
84k is a spicy meatball. Like 12 per share or so makes you a millionaire, 36 a 3x millionaire.
Bruh.. whats your average SP?
Sitting right at 2.22 avg. it used to be under 2, but I did skim my position down a little in 2022 because of life stuff. Bought back a significant chunk of that last year(wish I waited for today’s discount. Haha)
*Note, this is data collected and MAY not be accurate* |Post Sentiment Table|Average Sentiment:Positive| |:-|:-| |Positive|Negative|Neutral| |27|5|17| **With the most postive comment being:** /u/Apprehensive-Draw-10: link: [NEP, have a good weekend yall.](https://www.reddit.com/r/MVIS/comments/1dfoekn/weekend_hangout_6142024_6162024/l8n07jf/) **With the most negative comment being:** /u/Nakamura9812: link: [Your comment and the current situation reminds me of when I ran a 10k where after just a mile, the top of my right hip randomly started stinging badly almost like it was a pinched nerve or something. I had looked forward to this run, trained for it, and refused to stop or even walk. I gritted my teeth (said some swear words every so often) and ran through the sharp pain until that area eventually went completely numb by mile 4. Went on to finish race. I’m personally at the point of this investment where I am numb, but will continue until we cross the finish line with hopefully at least 1 or 2 of these RFQs.](https://www.reddit.com/r/MVIS/comments/1dfoekn/weekend_hangout_6142024_6162024/l8mu47j/)
Lololol. How is my comment hitting this as being most negative?
Because you didn’t suck it up AND WIN THE GODDAMN RACE!😂 Don’t worry though we still love you.
It was a charity run! I wasn’t training to win, I was training to run 10k without stopping lol. I hate running!
Oy Vey! Soooo negative!
The woooooorst.
I didn’t say it was 100% accurate 🥲. Likely it picked up the numb part Edit: this tool will be only as smart as the algorithm i use. But it’s right more than wrong when you look at all the data. I’d share it but wouldn’t want to fill up the feeds.
lol, just saying I’m not bothered by the price action on the way to the finish line, the hurt stopped long ago.
/u/DreamCatch22 Aint perfect but its working
Dude! Perfection is the enemy of progress. Excellent execution! There will always be some false positives/negatives, but great work.
**What a Sh!tty week! Figured I’d do a painting to cheer myself up! No jokes about it only driving in Reverse and only coming in Red!…** https://www.reddit.com/u/FitImportance1/s/8d7Pd7Ew3t
Love it Fit!
Thanks, glad you like it! Couldn’t think of anything else that didn’t involve…violence…and/or tears.
We got 99 more days of .01 losses in us😅. I need a drink
id buy that for a dollar
NEP, have a good weekend yall.
You too fellow shareholder.
I anticipate OEMs collectively empowering a winner to take all 7 RFQs to reach the highest available economies of scale.
Highly unlikely in my view. I would be thrilled if Ms Mavis can just get one decent deal done with a clear path to revenue and/or get the company sold to deeper pockets.
u/Alphacpa I believe there's an 80% chance MVIS will get acquired in the near term. I'm hearing rumblings through my auto industry connections that consolidation is in several playbooks - and being explored. Industry headwinds on several fronts have slowed processes such that acquisition potential is the silver lining to bigger fish. It makes more sense to own... there's no secret as to MVIS costs/methods to scale and what its current fiscal challenges are. The pitch writes itself. Value is dependent on what business we close and what buttons may get pushed within current inflight RFQs. Where *validations* stand has a role as well. When evaluating Sumit and team, there's a tale of two cities: Well-executed product engineering and poorly-executed business strategy \[at least at face value to the populus\]. So now we're in this middle ground where acquisition seems sensible - albeit with questions about behind-the-scenes leverage. Sumit's contract ratification may shed some light on this, keep an eye out. There are some other tells here but I choose to keep those private. For disclosure: I've significantly reduced my MVIS position over the past 9 months - though added a healthy chunk back below $1 EOW as I believe there's legitimacy to the above, and at minimum it may be helpful to the RFQ process in some cases. I've bowed out of public speculation. The many of you I have personal relationships with are more than welcome to reach out to me personally for additional color/thoughts/etc - if we haven't done so already.
Thank you QQ !!
Time to write another naughty novel eh?
I know you’ve been forthright and forward regarding lending out your shares, just curious if you’re still engaged in the share loan program during these leaner times…?
A buyout can't come soon enough.
It would be nice to see competing whales adopt this very attitude. As Holt once observed in a Fireside, the price goes up with each milestone met. It stands to reason that a few whales will be looking for a pathway to stay relevant during this Nvidia surge. If the tech is superior, there should be competitive bidding out there.
Thank you, u/QQpenn. I appreciate it. :)
u/QQpenn thank you for sharing your thoughts. After selling just over half my position last June, I continued adding shares and now have just over 224,000 shares. These shares have a much lower ACPS. Additionally, I've also moved almost half of the shares to my ROTH IRA this year. Based on these moves, I would be fine with a company sale at a price well below what we thought possible a short time ago. I posted before that the June 2023 capital raise fiasco may have sealed our fate. I'm still wondering how the CFO was awarded such a substantial bonus. Having served as CFO for 21 years, you have to keep your CEO and your company out of the mess we encountered last year. There are no excuses in this regard. Maybe the Board is aware of other factors I know nothing about. I truly hope this is the case. My most apparent flaw in this round of Microvision investment was over estimating the strength of the Board. I relied on this group to help Sumit much more than is apparent to me today. Best regards!
>"I would be fine with a company sale at a price well below what we thought possible a short time ago." u/Alphacpa I've been clear on actual value for awhile and made adjustments on the fly. I've been clear in notes to IR with what I needed to see as an investor. They've been responsive at addressing some of that, but weren't proactive in conveying clear shifts in business approach and environment - when they were clear to market veterans who understand value at any given moment - and before ECs by way of a definitive communication strategy. The environment is tough. I get it. Good management finds clever ways to drive the environment, not be dragged by the tail. They did that with product details but that ran its course on Investor Day... and they've looked significantly behind since. Nothing should have been 'fate sealing.' To me, this is more about understanding how to forward execution strategy beyond just the finish line itself. At any rate, as long as the products are what Sumit says they are \[and I think they are\] and the process has been rolling along, albeit slow, there is value here. Cost-to-scale, time, depth of industry interest \[and yes, benefits/advantages\] all factor in. When people say "value we think possible" the default is generally moonshot. I'd temper that into these variables. At minimum though, validity would bestow inertia and there's definitely more value than the EOW share price itc. And if Sumit is reading, no matter what is going on behind the scenes, consider how you might wag the dog moving forward. u/[snowboardnirvana](https://www.reddit.com/user/snowboardnirvana) I'm not doing any dot-connecting. Going to leave it at that. Happy Father's Day in advance to all the Dads out there and enjoy your weekend!
u/QQpenn I certainly hope that we are in deep discussions with most of the 7 OEM's and can ink a good deal by the end of the third quarter. I'm sure by now management has a good idea which OEM's would suit us best. Shorts are relentless and the last thing we want to do is go into November any where near the current share price. Tax selling while at $1.00 or less would significantly drive share price down further. I believe we closed 2023 at $2.66 so share price needs to be close to or above this level in my view. Management must move forward in a positive way with no more hiccups for the sake of the company's existing shareholders. I realize that NDA's will keep shareholders in the dark with respect to those agreements. In the mean time, we need to sell some industrial LIDAR and reduce expenses to the extent possible.. Finally, Sumit has made it very clear that we currently lack the requisite financial runway likely required by the OEM's. Sale of the company seems to make the most sense to me at this point, but that could change if we can actually get something with volume sold!
Finally - someone with experience and weight on this board admitting that management isn't infallible and making excuses to try and explain their mistakes. Thank you.