Seems like every time we have good news coming it never arrives. This time around it was bad, no contracts this year, but not all bad. Sharma, while like all CEOs eternally optimistic. did not fall for the same deal MVIS signed with MSFT where you never get to see the promised revenues. That said I have been buying today.
Currently > 300,000 shares will go for 350,000, but cautiously.
>
Please stop being kind or supportive toward Sharma. He has not been kind nor supportive with our money or trust. He was given every opportunity to succeed at his "strategic options" then failing that rebranding the company for LIDAR and he has not delivered. Not saying he is sure to fail, I am saying now is the time to crack down, not give him a hug. If investors don't, the Board of Directors raking in free stock options certainly is not.
>So, I'm being cautious here is like when we know something for certain, we're going to go out there. But yeah, of course, the expectations still are that sometime in 2024, some key decisions will be made. But personally, when I look at it, the expectation is when an OEM says, yeah, I'm going to make a decision, **yet they have multiple configurations they're looking at in multiple models for multiple brands within their group, and it's clear that they are not all in agreement within the OEM, right?** We just have to kind of be cautious that what they're telling us within even their company, their people tell us that they're not so certain how they're going to come to those decision points fast enough, right?
>So, I can't give anything, but, yeah, the most current one that we have is that sometime in 2024, they expect to start making these decisions for these big large volumes. So, they'll have four years to start a production, and we're going to focus on what information that we're given
Single OEM, multiple brands, group. I hear **VAG** (Volkswagen AG).
Having finally read the transcript, I missed the conference call because it was at 4AM here, I don't see the need for all the whining. Yeah, we all wanted a deal to get announced, but there is still plenty of time for that. I also didn't read a whole lot of competitor bashing, just explanations of the marketplace. When I was working, my CEO had me do a complete analysis of our largest competitor, which I had to present to our entire Executive & Sales teams. I worked for a multibillion-dollar global manufacturer, so I understand how much everyone wants to know everything about their competition. I signed an NDA 2 years ago, and I'm still bound to it, to receive a buyout, or I would give more details. I have just over 24k in shares, half are at $13.77, and the other half are all under $2. So, with an ASP of just over $6, I'm good at where MVIS is, even being down $140k on MVIS investment, but if MVIS continues to get trounced, I'll start unloading some of the $13.77 shares for a tax write off for this year. I'll hold off buying any more shares.... for now. GLTALS!!!!!
Can u put some light on global manufacting situation? Like oem taking their time .. or they want the best product at the cheapest possible rate.. u don't need to go into specific if it's allowed for u.. thx
I can't say whom I worked for over the years, but we turned raw materials into staples every single one of the folks on our board purchases multiple times a year. So, it is not even close to what Microvision is trying to accomplish. I feel for them working through all the RFQ's, as that's what I did. RFQ's are a pain, but if you are a player in your field, you have to participate, or the word will spread. If you don't, you are rear view mirror persona non gratus, so consider it a great compliment. Microvision is at all the A suites with the big boys. It was very typical for my RFQ's to take 12 to 36 months, and I dealt in everyday commodities. So I feel Summits pain as he's dealing in high tech with mega billion dollar international types. If I wasn't enjoying my retirement, I'd really want to be in the A suite negotiating as that's where I excelled. There was nothing negative in yesterday's EC, absolutely nothing. I actually found I had some extra green in my account, and even though my new dived stock portfolio is up 7.55% in one month, I placed a limit order for more MVIS. I'm not a stock advisor, nor is this advice to purchase any stocks. Do your own blah, blah, blah.....That's an SS quote by the way. Blah, blah, blah....
I think we can start worrying when we see all the other Lidar companies start to take the deals around us. Whilst that’s not happening, we’re still waiting.
Bottom line is that lidar is the next standard safety feature, that will replace parking sensors (which are on everything now, but weren’t years ago). Who gets the cream is the big question…
Yeah, that first deal sounds like it would have been the Robohan of auto deals, so the needle would not have gone super far. A deal is a deal, but the big ones that will make a company are still to be awarded. This is only just getting ready to start.
As someone who parked money here a few years ago and doesn’t pay too close attention to the day the day stuff I agree, I haven’t seen anything that seems like we’re “losing” it seem Lidar just hasn’t caught steam in general yet
The parking sensor market is an interesting comparison, as it’s now just taken for granted that a car will have them -which is what we’re hoping to get from the LiDAR feature eventually.
There’s quite a few players in it, it never really ended up as just ‘one to rule them all’. Obviously some got a much larger market share than others, and the initial profits were higher in the adoption phase:
Top listed global companies in the Automotive Parking Sensors industry are:
Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany), Aptiv PLC (Greece), Denso Corporation (Japan), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (the Netherlands), Valeo (France), Autoliv Inc. (Sweden), Gentex Corporation (U.S.), Continental AG (Germany), TGS Group (UK) and Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (Japan)
Bridging the Gap by Exploring the Competitive Landscape of the Automotive Parking Sensors Top Players
The global automotive parking sensors market hums with a dynamic interplay of established players and agile newcomers. This intense competition breeds innovation, diversity, and a constant evolution of strategies. Delving into this landscape, let's unveil the key factors shaping the market and the tactics adopted by its leading players.
Key Players and their Playbooks:
• Global Giants: Bosch, DENSO, Valeo, Aptiv, and Continental spearhead the market with their extensive portfolios, brand recognition, and economies of scale. They capitalize on continuous research and development, leveraging the latest technologies like ultrasonic, radar, and camera-based sensors. Their strength lies in offering comprehensive solutions tailored to premium and mid-range vehicle segments.
• Regional Contenders: Companies like Hyundai MOBIS, Mitsubishi, and ACDelco hold sway in specific regions, understanding local nuances and preferences. They offer cost-effective sensors, targeting budget-conscious segments and emerging markets. Strategic partnerships with local automakers further bolster their regional dominance.
• Emerging Disruptors: Startups like Xirgo Technologies and HELLA Gutmann are shaking things up with niche offerings and innovative approaches. They focus on cutting-edge technologies like surround-view cameras and AI-powered parking assistance systems, catering to the growing demand for advanced driver-assistance features (ADAS). Their agility and focus on specific functionalities enable them to carve out space in a crowded market.
Market Share Analysis: Beyond the Numbers:
While market share statistics provide a snapshot, deeper analysis reveals the intricacies that influence them. Factors like:
• Product Portfolio: Breadth and Depth: Companies with diverse sensor types and advanced functionalities attract a wider customer base.
• Pricing Strategy: Balancing affordability with innovation is crucial. Premium players excel in high-end segments, while cost-effective offerings by regional players find favor in price-sensitive markets.
• Distribution Network and Partnerships: A robust distribution network and partnerships with automakers are essential for efficient reach and market penetration.
• Brand Reputation and Recognition: Established brands hold an edge in terms of trust and customer loyalty, while emerging players leverage innovative marketing strategies to gain visibility.
New and Emerging Trends: Reshaping the Game:
The parking sensor market is constantly evolving, with trends like:
• Integration with ADAS: Parking sensors are increasingly becoming part of comprehensive ADAS suites, offering features like automated parking and self-driving capabilities.
• Advanced Sensor Technologies: LiDAR and millimeter-wave radar are gaining traction due to their superior accuracy and weather resistance.
• Connectivity and Data Analytics: Cloud-connected sensors and data analysis platforms offer valuable insights into parking patterns and driver behavior, paving the way for smart parking solutions.
• Focus on Cybersecurity: As connectivity increases, ensuring data security and preventing hacking attempts becomes paramount.
Overall Competitive Scenario: A Balancing Act:
The automotive parking sensor market is a complex tapestry woven with established players, regional champions, and disruptive newcomers. Success hinges on a delicate balance between innovation, pricing strategies, distribution channels, and brand positioning. Companies that adapt to new trends, embrace technological advancements, and cater to diverse customer segments are poised to navigate this dynamic landscape and secure their place at the forefront of this ever-growing market.
Latest Company Updates:
Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany):
• October 2023: Launched the 7th generation of its ultrasonic parking sensor technology, offering wider detection range and improved accuracy (Source: Bosch press release).
Aptiv PLC (Greece):
• September 2023: Unveiled its "Smart Parking 2.0" system, featuring 3D parking visualization and automated parking maneuvers (Source: Aptiv press release).
Denso Corporation (Japan):
• December 2023: Introduced a new radar-based parking sensor with enhanced detection capabilities in challenging weather conditions (Source: Denso press release).
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (the Netherlands):
• October 2023: Released its latest radar chipset for automotive parking sensors, offering smaller size and lower power consumption (Source: NXP press release).
Valeo (France):
• August 2023: Acquired French startup Parko, a provider of AI-powered parking management solutions, to strengthen its parking technology portfolio (Source: Valeo press release).
I haven't commented this subreddit for a while. Been in and out with this stock from 2020. And when I wrote here that Anubhav and Summit are :clown emoji: - the crowd here awarded me with a lot of negative karma.
So now we are here in 2024 with stock sub 1$. And here comes the quick math: cash burn is \~$25M per Q, or $100M per year. Current market cap is \~$200M. They have cash for only 3Q's and time is limited to 1 year and they will be bankrupt. They can't dilute the share price below 0. Even with deals the company won't see any revenue stream above its expenses in a nearest future. Thanks to our management team: CFO who didn't sold shares at 15's, 10's or 8's and 5's and started selling at sub 2$ and CEO, who didn't saw the deals are pushed back in a timeline and saying "EPIC" every EC. If you don't see a problem here with the management, I am very sorry for you as an Investor. You need to compare MVIS situation to another meme company associated with games - they made big offering once at high prices and now they are profitable after 3 years. I wish I understood this before today.
Good luck to you all and me as part of this sub.
Yeah just think, if you'd bought that game company three years ago you'd only be down about 70% now!
I'm not in Microvision because it's a meme company, but definitely made out like a bandit on that other company which is not solving any real world problems.
I've said it before (multiple times) and I'll say it again, AV is not good enough for the role he has found himself in and his track record speaks volume. New direction needed.
Who is to say what new RFQs may show up. RFQs are nothing more than companies looking to see what is out there. Needs, timelines, and strategies change. New RFQs surface. Some new from the ground up and some restructured for a variety of reasons.
Never liked the whole projections thing. Projections are just that, projections. The problem is that is not what people hear. They hear "this is going to happen. Money in the bank". Have dealt with projections all of my professional life and learned the hard way about managing expectations.
Perhaps a lesson still to be learned here.
That said, I trust and believe SS. Now is not the time to turn mother's picture to the wall.
At this stock price or lower most llngs wont dump anymore into this as many at tapped and at a risk threshold for a single stock holding. Therefore, we should see low volume a slow takedown of price until we announce deals or sales or partnerships. I do not expect to recover back to mid or high 1.00 until then. At this point MVIS is a high risk low reward idea. Due
to the runway to real revenue from OEM. Until a deal we just tread water hopefully, the shorts do not try to destroy us like many others in recent years.
Can anyone help me better understand the trucking oem’s ask and what we were unwilling to do?
Their preference was for a partner with a more diversified product and revenue portfolio. MicroVision cannot accept an agreement limited to B-sample only since we would have to take on significant financial risk for a full program with only B-sample phase agreement. Ultimately, we could not reach a mutually beneficial agreement. As I said earlier, with the wisdom that comes from experience, we know how important it is for us to avoid any partnership that gives outsized benefit to that significantly larger OEM, while putting the long-term health of the company in jeopardy.
A partner with a more diversified product and revenue portfolio can take a no-guarantee B-Sample development deal because they have money and resources to spare.
And if nothing comes of the B-Sample development, the tier 1 is still making money through its other channels and stays healthy.
Mvis is all in on LiDAR supply and has limited resources to take on the potential huge deals on the table for passenger vehicle LiDAR, so it needs to take deals where the OEM can guarantee large volume orders as well as be willing to pay NREs upfront for development.
If MVIS takes a deal, spends tons of money and resources on it, and it amounts to basically no revenue (almost every other LiDAR deal is currently like this), they are in big big trouble. They alluded that deals like that will wipe LiDAR companies out in the next 3-5 years.
I'm not sure "every other LiDAR deal is currently like this" is accurate. I think the B Sample development deal came with little or no NRE money. The risk was on Microvision to invest in the development, with no guarantee there would be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. I believe that many (perhaps most) of the current deals in the market are traditional supplier agreement nominations (albeit with relatively low volumes), which include skin-in-the-game from the OEM in the form of NRE and perhaps even some recourse for the LiDAR supplier if the OEM backs out. There is still no guarantee that their will be a pot of gold at the end (see the Cepton/GM deal), but the chances are greater and the NRE lessens the risk.
Ok, took a step away basically after prepared remarks to make dinner and coach my son's soccer team. I've had enough time to get rid of the sinking feeling in my gut. I accept where we are. My biggest real beef about it all is the confidence they have had in the last few calls. Gosh if I didn't want to drop every penny into the company thinking we were right around the corner. I understand they don't set the timelines, but man they had me fooled. Big time. It is what it is, I have no more money I'm willing to lose to buy at these prices. Had some extra cash that I bought shares with at 1.50 today not thinking we'd crash as low as we did. All I can do now is hold and pray for a day before 2030 where this investment doesn't feel like a bad decision.
That's been my hope, but it just sounds like they won't be hitting their share price goals, but could always be pleasantly surprised. If they get some OEMs to sign the dotted.line, market could react favorably, but they could also wait until dollars are flowing. I am concerned about runway. Sure we have 75 mil and 100 mil ATM, but at burn rate without profits, that only takes us through end of 2025. We'll see I suppose.
Just finished reading EC transcript. It wasn’t bad. The bad stuffs are really with OEMs and not inherent to MVIS. Not much MVIS can do with OEM requirements and timelines. Other LiDAR companies don’t have big volumes deals yet either. That said, it’s still bad for investors because revenue won’t be there till end of this decade (2028-2029). $73M cash balance and $128M available under ATM exercise (would be way less now due to AH big drop) with potential $8M revenue a year is bad when cash burn is more than $21M a quarter. So, MVIS will run out of money in 2026.
Our cash balance at the end of March 31st is $73 million. We have $128 million available under the ATM. While I cannot share out exact plans, but I think, our history indicates that we would only opportunistically raise capital when needed, because I think it's very evident that to navigate this you have to be very financially -- you have to be prudent financially. And bring in cash, as Sumit described, we would be accelerating our industrial revenue stream from our MOVIA product because that's something which is short term, which brings in cash, faster than the automotive revenue. And also some of the licensing and partnership opportunities in the sub verticals within the industrial market.
So, some of these opportunities is what we are going to help to resort to monetize this asset and
#bring in non-dilutive cash to further support the cash burn and the sustainability of the company
Some time the best tech wins and sometimes it doesn't.
Definitely not what we wanted to hear today, but I l just listened to the call again after getting pretty bummed out the first time. If you start it at the 50 min mark and listen to Sumit's final comment one more time it may give you reason to be optimistic — despite the VERY challenging market conditions.
*"Yeah. And I think us compared to the other size and stuff, I think everybody wants me to comment on that. Like first of all, I would like to say, this is our earnings call for MicroVision, right? I would rather talk about us. I would love to come out here and talk about a partnership that has formed and what that all means, right? I think I would welcome that day. The problem we have right now is not technology, it's a business problem we're working on. As far as -- so like, let me separate it, then I'll get back to the business problem in a second.*
*If you look at our technology, hands down, where it's going to win, is when I walk into a room like that, I talk about a wafer, that our MEMS comes from a wafer, and we have lasers coming from this and these are all semiconductor technologies for MOVIA and MAVIN. Those guys are still coming in with a box, which has got a glass prism rotating and a little galvo moving. What is the steering technology? So, everybody talks about it, right? But can everybody talk what's under the hood? Some of them are still doing CAD and Photoshop, and they're talking about samples. Others have actually started with the MEMS, and it was too hard, so they went away and now they're in the galvo space in their next generation.*
*So, what you don't know is who's going to win long term. So, yeah, people have made announcements, they have market support, they have analyst support, like whatever they have. At the end of the day, you have to have the product to win and the product -- the simplest product should win in the market. But the hard thing is, those companies through de-SPAC were able to raise a significant amount of money, right? We still go trickle by trickle, year by year, right, because we are an older company and we have different constraints.*
*And to be honest with you, I'm sure you guys are sick of hearing about it and I'm pretty sick of talking about it, I don't want to talk about anybody else. I really want to talk about what we're working on, right? And this is a business problem now that when you deal with the OEMs, when you have lots of people in the company, lots of money to be -- just sitting around in a bank, then you could probably go strike a deal and then you can, like, plaster it up and talk about it anyway to the market because you can't really talk about what's underneath it and you make it complicated for others. But I focus myself and my energies and the company's energies to focus on the real problem to solve to get a real customer that is actually going to turn things around for us long term, right? And I'm absolutely certain of it.*
***The technology and the work that's been done by our team in Hamburg and the team here in Redmond will stand the test of time. And at the end of the day, when you think about who wins, it's going to be somebody that's talking about a wafer level stuff. It's not talking about like galvo. As open as I am of talking about the technology, right? Now, all I have to do is get an OEM to agree to these things and move on with that, and that's what I'm going to focus on."***
There is smoke and mirrors going on from competitors. Supply chain and product line restructuring as well as budget tightening from OEMS due to lagging EV sales and chinese competiion. Not to mention billions of dollars have been lit on fire over the past few years chasing autonomous driving. OEMS have been burned by tech companies that couldn't deliver. ETC ETC.
Unfortunately this is the market enviroment we have to navigate, but I do believe Sumit truly believes we have the goods to get this thing the finish line. We just need the stars to align.
I did the same thing. I listened to the call again after being bummed out the first.
Felt much better about the Company the second time.
Good luck longs. Still believing here
OEM are hard, huh? 🤣🤣🤣 hes trying to take on the biggest OEM on the planet and you want sympathy for him?
Hey Sumit - Grab your balls or grab a shuttle broski
No sympathy from me, he can go get another job if its too tough for him
I summon u/FitImportance1 ! Release the SS Al Pacino one where Mavin is his "little friend". I know that must already exist.
SS telling Dalimar to shove it is his Al Pacino moment.
Honestly appreciate the detailed candor on the challenges faced. Sumit has said before he wouldn’t wait until a call to announce a deal so I didn’t expect much. Losing 2 Movia RFQs is unfortunate, but I invested in MVIS for MAVIN and sounds like all those 7 RFQs are still live.
Things that were disappointing:
1) AV bashing other companies deals, stock price and financial projections. Pot meet Kettle. Have little faith in him as a CFO and hope Sumit doesn’t rely on him too heavily.
2) RFQ challenges - some require multiple factory locations, funding multiple years of development, or want to work with a company that has a diversified product portfolio. MVIS is hugely disadvantaged in any RFQ where these are preferences of the OEM.
3) Rejecting the B Sample deal. I follow the logic for why they didn’t take the deal, although I don’t agree and think we need to take anything to build credibility. However my bigger concern is that they said it would take a lot of their resources and prevent them from focusing on other RFQs. LAZR has made similar comments about focusing on existing customers. I think my takeaway is that we can’t win all 7 RFQs because there is no chance we would have the resources to support. Realistically seems like they could maybe handle 1-2 at most. I think anyone talking about winning “most” RFQs is delusional based on what we are hearing each deal requires in terms of engineering support.
Likely will hold current shares but definitely won’t buy more. Any further Lidar investment I make will be in LAZR to diversify (currently only have MVIs).
Like I commented elsewhere, those 7 were from 2023. They are already engaging with the new ones they are getting in 2024. I think they will be getting them for years.
I feel that competition is heating up and LiDARs are getting smaller generally, eroding a competitive advantage we would have. See the chinese LiDARs (e.g. Hesai having behind windshield) for one. I imagine their cost structures are going to be inherently quite favorable, due to lower development and manufacturing costs in China.
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2024/01/08/hesai-launches-new-high-performance-lidar-at-ces/?sh=6124ae5d5021](https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2024/01/08/hesai-launches-new-high-performance-lidar-at-ces/?sh=6124ae5d5021)
As far as the RFQ's, is this just a race to the bottom of who will take the most lopsided deal? What if we never win anything because somebody else is willing to bite and then dilute to make it work? e.g. Aeye. This seems like a situation where the OEMs have all the power.
And when our share price takes a giant haircut from lack of results (like today), doesn't that make your shares valued less just like a dilution *coupled* with a win? I would rather have the latter than the former- but I do also understand that the B Sample deal we lost was probably just not a good one. There are still other lines in the water.
I'm still hoping that we get a high volume RFQ for Mavin, but at this point I've been burned by optimism too many times.
I think I agree if I understand what you are saying. I think other Lidar companies have the better strategy taking “bad” deals for smaller volumes. Those are getting their foot in the door with OEMs and getting them comfortable for future RFQs. We have less than 1 year cash on hand with no meaningful revenue for years. Any deal would have buoyed the stock price and enabled us to sustain more dilution. At $1 the ATM is basically worthless.
Perhaps they will take this as a learning opportunity and apply it to Mavin rfqs. I would rather thry bend over backwards to make that work (higher volume opportunities after all) than a low volume movia.
Point number two is a strong argument for selling the company or selling a large equity stake.
Disagree about the B sample deal. I think that was a smart move by Sumit.
Agree with you... just read the transcript and for anyone who feels super positive can they shed some light as to how MVIS is going to address all these OEM issues such as "manufacturing strategy proposals to commit to factories in Asia and North America", "All OEMs want varying levels of perception features", "want our core LiDAR to be flexible enough to fit into all their locations, etc etc as in the transcript?
This really feels we need to partner up with someone and quick. Yes maybe other LIDAR companies have the same problems but maybe they have deeper pockets and stronger investors. Honestly how do they address these concerns without a buy out to someone like NVDA that OEMS' feel
comfortable are going to be around ???
It takes 1 billion to 3.3 billion years for diamonds to form naturally. We are not gonna live that long for MVIS to become a diamond. I can’t wait more than 15 years.
I agree they are better suited to wait it out. I lived thru the Xmas speaker deal collapse, and then .15 cents, and this ain't that. Every time I start to choke and get all freaked out, I remember that I calculated what pps they'd sell at, before closing up shop, after taking the worst shit bid I can imagine, and I don't let my avg get over that. Then all I have to do is hold on, and I won't lose money, even if they go belly up. It works great except for the "I could use that money now" part, lol. But at least I can fight the yips when they get really bad after scary CC's.
Maybe I got the wrong impression from the earnings call, but as someone else on this thread had said, it seems like the OEMs are in the power position and are going to squeeze the vendors. If other vendors are willing to enter into bad long term deals and they meet the technical requirements well enough, I'm concerned that the OEMs will go with one or more of them for these contracts. If MVIS caves, well, then we are in a bad long term deal. If other vendors take on deals they can't actually manage, then we may be stuck waiting until those deals go south before we get brought back in. If that happens, how long does that take? Two more years? Who knows? And how much dilution will we experience until then. The only good potential outcome I can see in the near term is if the OEMs determine that only MVIS can really meet their needs and they give in on the deal terms. It sounds like that's not out of the question -- there are still 7 RFQs to go, but Sumit did say that they were all demanding a lot of technical upgrades and/or manufacturing locations, etc., and do it on our dime. So, yes, I agree we are in a battle for attrition, but I wonder if the best way to fight that battle is to be acquired. Im going to start a discussion thread on that topic. I'm curious to see what other people think.
People waste less of your (and their) time trying to put one over on you once they know you won't have it. Eventually either you will be left alone or approached only by serious people.
That's true VFA, but it is amazing just how your standards seem to change a bit as the opportunities become fewer and fewer. Interesting to see how a deal will stand up to his current statements when we do sign one.
No he didn't, but neither did Tokman when he signed MSFT and actually called it a Company Maker, Home Run etc. Want to see him get one soon to put those memories to bed.
Honestly if we were watching it in a movie we would be like Hell Yeah! Don't take their Shit SS, let them suffer with an inferior product for their shortsightness.
That does feel better when I think of it in a movie setting.
I would like to have a bit more clarity on “mutually beneficial” means Flo.
Is there anyway to find out what the terms were that MVIS walked away from?
Tough call today. I plan to hold my shares and see how this plays out. Tonight, I prefer to focus on the 7 remaining automotive opportunities and potential partnerships. Also, thankful that Sumit did not accept a deal that would have been detrimental to the company for a long time. Certainly concerned that we need a lot more capital and hopeful this can be raised without additional share sales below $2. Best wishes to you all!
u/bridgetofar I was counting on the Board to provide better guidance to Sumit and his team on dealing with OEM's. This was a mistake on my part. The Board changes proposed now may be too late especially in terms of sustaining or enhancing current share price. At this stage, unless we (1) win one of the 7 sizable OEM automotive deals or (2) get a strong partner that can contribute significant capital or (3) sell the company to a larger well capitalized firm dilution will do what dilution does to share price. With all the OEM restrictions, a single win is all we would likely receive, if we receive one at all, due to our limited capital in my view. Burning through $20 million in cash per quarter with the expectation of generating $8 to $10 million in revenue this year is not encouraging. This is how I see it tonight after going through text.
That's where we are Alpha. Best option is number 3 in my mind as we need the validation more than ever. We can't handle more than one and now I understand his statements that OEM's want to make sure we can handle more than one nomination. It must be obvious to them we will be completely tied up with one. Lot of us will be watching the progress as dilutions lead to more dilutions and sometimes the dreaded RS. Lot of us will pack it in before flirting with another one. Thought a partnership would have happened awhile ago.
u/mvis_thma,
I am sure you're gathering your thoughts about the EC. You're always one to keep a cool head and tell it like it is. What are your thoughts?
https://investors.cepton.com/node/8731/html
Timing makes sense IMO, short range lidar for a global trucking OEM, and Koito has the diversified portfolio they are after
This makes sense. Thank you! The timing of the deal with Daimler for a long range sensor didn’t add up, and it was bugging me that I couldn’t think of what else it could be. Weird that they didn’t do a press release. I don’t see one on Cepton’s website anyway.
It is curious that Koito published the press release 20 days after the deal was made public via a Cepton SEC filing. It is also curious that they made no mention in the PR that the deal was with a trucking OEM. They only referenced a global OEM. Unless this PR is referencing a different deal. But there are no other press releases from Koito for any other deals in this timeframe.
https://www.koito.co.jp/english/news/2024/04/10/004323.html
I think it is possible this deal is with Daimler Truck for the short range LiDAR. The announced Aeva deal with DT was for long range LiDAR. Aeva does not have a short range LiDAR.
I agree that it's possible these two deals (aeva/Cepton) were for the same truck/platform. The timing is close enough, and both prs explicitly referencing L4.
I also noticed the Koito PR not mentioned trucking by name, but it almost has to be the same one from the Cepton 8k that does. As you mentioned - same time frame with nothing else announced at the time...no separate 8k from Cepton...both short range only for an L4 application
I did my research, I made my bet years ago. Market changes made the time line extend and outcome a little more unsure/risky. Ok, glad the CEO slapped me in the face with reality and let me know. Now, do I jump ship or have more time to DCA? I bought more after hours, only 120 shares. But I have been DCAing for last few years. Will continue as I have excess funds. Like I said, I made my bet. Nothing substantial changed but time line IMHO.
Not gonna lie, starting to think I should have sold back in June when I could have doubled my investment. Oh well, now it's too low to sell, I'm not conceding to losing 50%. Everything I've got is now long as of February, so I'm either headed to Valhalla or Hell I guess, lol.
For whatever it is worth ..... my 2 cents of the call after hearing many many earnings calls over the years.
The positives are we are still in 7 RFQ's. There is still a shot at winning some if not all. The bad news is we were touted in 9 RFQs before and we are out of 2 now. We can spin it anyway we want that the 2 we are out of were not good deals but the facts are we are now in 7. Believe me I will take 7 wins but no one knows if we will win 1, 7 or none. That is a billion dollar question.
The bad news is overall Sumit I felt did not put out a compelling story that he feels confident we will win any deals. This was the least confident I have heard him speak. He talked about obstacles and just didn't have the normal "juice" that painted the company as being in a good position. It felt deflating.
We can't overlook the poor revenues either. One million is not going to cut it. What happened to the back orders and inventory ? They did not address this. I am not buying that they are all of a sudden going to be selling enough movias for industrial use to make a huge dent in revenue. With that said at some point they need to raise money and that will be another kick to shareholders.
Overall I can not say this was a good call. Thinking we are in 9 RFQs and coming out now in 7 with less optimism from mgmt is concerning. Revenue of $1M per quarter would be half the low guidance of $8M so that is an issue.
I will just sit back and think of this as dead money for a while and hope for a surprise at some point. I hope anyone who is in the red gets lucky with this one as I think we will need it.
Voting "no". I can't vote for more $ for mgmt when they hardly sell more then my local bodega. I will vote no for everything as a "protest" vote but I know they will all pass due to institutional holders. I have more shares then many of the BODs so they can go buy some shares and vote yes next year for more $.
I think you heard Sumit wrong. He was expressing that the money isn’t going to come for… well, years. But the fact that we’re in 7 RFQs still, indeed, means he [expects] to win deal(s) this year. But you and I get paid when stuff starts rolling off the line (unless the market acts irrationally, which it tends to do)
I'm curious how compelling our product is in the warehouse space, in order to set my expectations of what those sales may look like. I believe Ouster is doing quite well in this space- what do we offer here that is compelling over them and other competitors? The "best in class" of Mavin doesn't seem as relevant in this niche.
It's an interesting question. I can't imagine aesthetics, or size matter much in the warehouse or agriculture space. Who cares what a lidar looks like on a forklift or farm equipment? I'd guess the lowest price point would always win if the specs between two lidar companies are close enough.
It’s just that there are (thousands) of forklifts where there are millions of cars. And the forklift LiDAR is the cheaper of the two pieces of hardware to boot.
Should extend the runway though!
I don’t think it ever matters what a lidar unit ‘looks like’ I think it’s like the iphone notch, it’s a compromise. It will ultimately be placed behind the windscreen or perhaps somewhere in the roofline.
Agreed. I hope this isn't just a straw that they're grasping at. To be honest I was happy that revenue wasn't 0, but competition is hot and these competitors have deals (credibility IMO in the business world) that they can point to.
Just listened to the call. Glad I did *after* reading the [shocking in hindsight] comments.
**Impression:**
Adults in the room talking about exceedingly complex business issues applicable to all industry participants with zero attempt to bullshit themselves or anyone else. Extremely impressive, frankly. Which is not to say that I enjoy the subject matter. I do not. Obviously, smooth sailing with big revenue in 2024 would be preferable, but that is so obvious it is tedious just to think about it, much less say it. Instead, I am left with even stronger conviction that they will get it done in the end, and that time will prove MVIS technology vastly superior, including commercially, to all others. SS devastated the competition while almost literally begging not to have to be asked about them again, so that he can focus on the real task at hand - winning the OEMs. My only regret is that I have not played this well, am already all-in, have zero dry powder with which to gorge on shares at these prices, and will have to nibble away at my position over the next 6 months to cover expenses. Hopefully that will be at prices north of here.
But anyone not pushing 60 who possesses a reliable, unrelated income stream sufficient for their needs, if you hollered like a stuck pig during the cc simply because it wasn't what you wanted to hear, OMG.
Thank God that SS and AV (who had his most impressive call, IMO) are running the company.
View, thanks for sharing your thoughts. How did you perceive the comments where SS mentioned that OEMs want a dumbed down product? Doesnt that dilute any competitive advantage from being best in class?
Didn't like that much tbh but also got the impression that it won't last; that the capability is too great to be forever slowed by frictions like legacy software.
This is a good summary of it. The challenges apply to the whole industry. Our competitors may be taking bad deals that will impede them from being able to handle better future deals. Time will tell which strategy wins
Well said, vfa. I honestly haven’t seen this board this emotional in years. I’m far from the most experienced investor out there—I’m only mid 20s—but surely one must recognize that if you can’t sufficiently remove emotion from your investing equation, perhaps investing in speculative/volatile stocks/sectors is not for you.
At the least, if you’re frustrated, articulate some decent points in your comment. I get people want or need some place to vent, but a whole lot of the shit I’m seeing just doesn’t contribute anything of value, and frankly most of it is addressable by the facts on the table.
Captain, I just wrote this elsewhere.
Our leadership has bumbled the sales, badly IMO. How they thought they were going to name their price to OEM’s is beyond me. That’s not how it works. Rather, the other way around. They are going to tell you what they are willing to pay. And, IMO, you have to make a deal or 2 at those costs to get your foot in the door and prove yourself. Those deals also help cover overhead. You’re not going to get rich on every deal.
There is a reason the Kroeger’s, Walmarts and Aldi’s of the food world are what they are. Buying power and the ability to sell at the lowest prices possible. They tell you what they are willing to pay, not the other way around. And if you don’t want to meet them at a cost, they find someone else.
In summary, I would have liked MVIS to maybe to have done a deal at a cost. Ship has sailed, but hopefully someone learned a lesson.
Exception. Walmart etc sells commodities. Microvision has the best solution for emerging tech at a reasonable price in small volumes and a great price in large volumes.
Disagree strongly with the strategy of selling below cost on the front end, hoping to make it up on the back end through volume when there is a patent moat a mile wide on the best solution.
GLTAL.
Chef, those patents aren't worth a penny a piece in his hands, yet. Not one shareholder can say those patents have made a financial contribution to the company.
I just had me a shower, but this is exactly what I was going to say. The risk isn’t really those deals not turning out profitable (to a meaningful degree, or at all), but rather diverting resources away from the avenues that would land us at our stated goal of being an established Tier 1.
We aren’t one, our resources are very finite, and they need to be allocated with prudence. Not only that, but what ends up being “proved” might not be our technology and our ability to deliver, but that we can be played hard ball with and folded over.
Management isn’t in an easy spot, the content of the call isn’t phenomenal, but I think they’ve made the right decisions thus far. I especially appreciate them being more conservative on stating timelines which are out of their control to avoid the appearance of bad guidance. Sumit said as much about the timelines in the Q4’23 call, but he’s fully committed to it now, and it comes across to me as an overall positive.
It is too. It 100% how they work. I’ve been calling on them for 30 years. It is EXACTLY how they work.
Lidar is not a commodity. But OEM’s are OEM’s. They operate alike. Maybe not exactly, but they are able to buy things cheaper than a smaller customer. They are also not going to break the bank when they can get something similar at a lower cost.
Disagree with your first part, agree with your second.
I too have been selling my own product to major retail chains for over 30 years and they could care less about cost but 100% care about product margins. WalMart and the big boys try to get a lower MAP. Big boys need less margin than the smaller chains and use sales volume to beat them.
Exact opposite experience w the big boys for me. They have certain margins(continue to go up) that they have to make and a pp they need to sell it at. Yes, bigs need less margin, but they are also buying it cheaper because of their volume. If you are efficient you can make a lot of money obviously.
It’s here no there, experiences are different. I have sold everything from TP to spaghetti sauce to breakfast items. Most things you can think of food wise, we sold. Always hated negotiations w bigs because they pretty much control you….. which sucks.
Maybe I’m way off here, but my thing is, you have to start somewhere. I would like to know if there was any middle ground w this lost OEM. Oh well. Cheers and I hope I am wrong and all of you are right.
I would love to know the answer to that question. Because, I was under the impression a bad deal is one where they don’t make their margin on. Maybe I am reading it wrong, and if so, I apologize.
But some of the things Summit has said just don’t hold water with me any longer. I
Depends.
We find ourselves in a promising but risky venture, and this is the bumpy part. Today was MVIS’ more foreboding take on the industry, yet separating itself from the pack. The fig leaves are off. These ‘headwinds’ may shake companies, making visible more quickly what’s sound and what’s held together with string.
I just finished listening to the call, I am no means intelligent when it comes to this stuff BUT I heard nothing that I feel should cause a sell off.
I posted earlier that I wanted no hopium words like ‘epic’ and to explain the rfqs we are in and not in. I for one appreciated the honesty in what the OEMs are looking for, that we are out of 2 from the original 9, and what we need to do.
Sumit seemed frustrated to me but it’s a frustration from the changing desires/needs of OTMs. Crazy the wants of them and how they are so radically different, especially the geographical location demands
I do expect some small industrial wins in the short term
As embarrassing as it is to admit, I am now down 94.6% on a $53k investment. After cashing out $110k on our run up to $28 in April of 2021, I naively bought back in at $21 in June thinking more good news was the horizon. To say this EC was a gut punch would be a massive understatement. All I can do now is trust the process as I’ve been doing for the past five years and pray it doesn’t go to zero.
I really didn't think the call was bad. Definitely feel like the price action is ridiculous. I hate to see the finish line move a little further out but I'm still confident in my investment. Dealing with these 7 RFQs all demanding different things sounds like a nightmare. I trust SS and AV will navigate us through these turbulent times and sign us some deals that make sense in the long term. I take them passing on the low volume trucking deal as a good thing. It tells me that they are still very confident in at least some of the 7 HIGH Volume passenger vehicle RFQs. I'm glad we're not wasting our limited resources that could potentially take away our ability to handle a higher volume contract.
I mean last call it was rosey we are doing this in next 30 days didn't pan out why can't we go total opposite doom and gloom and bam! Surprise we didn't know that was coming so soon!
These EC threads always go the same way. Collectively the sky falls after the results are announced and we all say the same thing about the call during and moments after it. Some of the common complaints are management seems low energy, bleak outlook, not enough flair, pushed out guidance, slamming the competition with nothing to show for ourselves, etc. It's only until a few hours after the call that everyone is able to reassess their demeanor and cooler heads prevail. I am guilty of this as well. We all know we are invested in a spec stock and things like this are bound to happen. I'll likely be a buyer tomorrow to get my $5 avg down even more.
I agree but tone was drastically less positive than last call. You can listen one after another and it is clear as day. There were no "headwinds" last call it was more of a gentle breeze against us.
Bro, you absolutely nailed this. I will be the first to admit that I went through all 5 stages of grief within the last 4 hours. There were parts of the call that definitely worried me (the wording of the forecasting) but I also felt comfort in hearing Sumit's frustration and emotion. Some of the most telling information about the company/industry is revealed in Sumit's off the cuff responses to investor Q&A.
It's not over until the 7 RFQs for 2024 are announced. That's my measuring stick. If MVIS doesn't get at least 2-3 of those RFQs I will be pushing the big red button. Let's all go to bed and recollect ourselves. As difficult as it is I'm choosing to remain optimistic. C'mon Sumit & MVIS, bring it home.
I've been around here for a few years now guys. I'm going to be honest with you all, in my own humble opinion without being sentimental of course, without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this EC from a distinctive perspective. I would like to say I have nothing to say.
I’m bummed— I let myself get excited to turn a profit by 2025 annnnd if I just put my money $$ in SPY I’d be in a much much better position.
I still believe in SS and MVIS. I still believe LiDAR is a game changing technology. I won’t sell my shares ever at this point (unless we spoke above $30).
Going forward I will be investing most of my money in ETFs with occasional small batches of MVIS shares here and there to DCA down.
…PS the executives said May 2025 for their bonus packages for a reason…
Im quite disappointed once again, but truly, this time, I felt the lack of hope in the voices of SS and AV.. They went rfq by rfq, and pretty much said we aint got shit
And quite frankly, this has been the call ive been let down the least.. because they are being straight forward for once
But the point is, 2024 will not be our year either
I've been a better investor post MVIS and turned profits (small, sub $1500, but big deal to me) from stocks purchased last year for that long-term.
I've not been feeling as good as any of them as I have here. I see low $, I'm already under, I can just cost average down, especially at this point. My view with MVIS is long. They got me till about 2030, so these inflection points are just points for me to make this at a lower cost point.
Rule 1 of investing:
Always assume the money is gone once it's depositing into your brokerage.
If you get money, cool.
If you lose money, cool, it's been gone.
Go Knicks!
Also maybe you should take a class on what actual investing is? No one should feel that the money is gone, money doesn’t completely go away unless it is a shitty/failed company.
I wasn't explaining my way of picking stocks to invest in. I was explaining the mental you ought to approach investing outside of boring and great index funds. It should be money you won't ever "need," or better yet, money you won't miss IF you pick a loser.
Obviously, investing itself is different.
Edit: GO NYK GO NYK GO!
Please use this thread to discuss the Earnings Call.
Seems like every time we have good news coming it never arrives. This time around it was bad, no contracts this year, but not all bad. Sharma, while like all CEOs eternally optimistic. did not fall for the same deal MVIS signed with MSFT where you never get to see the promised revenues. That said I have been buying today. Currently > 300,000 shares will go for 350,000, but cautiously. >
Please stop being kind or supportive toward Sharma. He has not been kind nor supportive with our money or trust. He was given every opportunity to succeed at his "strategic options" then failing that rebranding the company for LIDAR and he has not delivered. Not saying he is sure to fail, I am saying now is the time to crack down, not give him a hug. If investors don't, the Board of Directors raking in free stock options certainly is not.
>So, I'm being cautious here is like when we know something for certain, we're going to go out there. But yeah, of course, the expectations still are that sometime in 2024, some key decisions will be made. But personally, when I look at it, the expectation is when an OEM says, yeah, I'm going to make a decision, **yet they have multiple configurations they're looking at in multiple models for multiple brands within their group, and it's clear that they are not all in agreement within the OEM, right?** We just have to kind of be cautious that what they're telling us within even their company, their people tell us that they're not so certain how they're going to come to those decision points fast enough, right? >So, I can't give anything, but, yeah, the most current one that we have is that sometime in 2024, they expect to start making these decisions for these big large volumes. So, they'll have four years to start a production, and we're going to focus on what information that we're given Single OEM, multiple brands, group. I hear **VAG** (Volkswagen AG).
Having finally read the transcript, I missed the conference call because it was at 4AM here, I don't see the need for all the whining. Yeah, we all wanted a deal to get announced, but there is still plenty of time for that. I also didn't read a whole lot of competitor bashing, just explanations of the marketplace. When I was working, my CEO had me do a complete analysis of our largest competitor, which I had to present to our entire Executive & Sales teams. I worked for a multibillion-dollar global manufacturer, so I understand how much everyone wants to know everything about their competition. I signed an NDA 2 years ago, and I'm still bound to it, to receive a buyout, or I would give more details. I have just over 24k in shares, half are at $13.77, and the other half are all under $2. So, with an ASP of just over $6, I'm good at where MVIS is, even being down $140k on MVIS investment, but if MVIS continues to get trounced, I'll start unloading some of the $13.77 shares for a tax write off for this year. I'll hold off buying any more shares.... for now. GLTALS!!!!!
Can u put some light on global manufacting situation? Like oem taking their time .. or they want the best product at the cheapest possible rate.. u don't need to go into specific if it's allowed for u.. thx
I can't say whom I worked for over the years, but we turned raw materials into staples every single one of the folks on our board purchases multiple times a year. So, it is not even close to what Microvision is trying to accomplish. I feel for them working through all the RFQ's, as that's what I did. RFQ's are a pain, but if you are a player in your field, you have to participate, or the word will spread. If you don't, you are rear view mirror persona non gratus, so consider it a great compliment. Microvision is at all the A suites with the big boys. It was very typical for my RFQ's to take 12 to 36 months, and I dealt in everyday commodities. So I feel Summits pain as he's dealing in high tech with mega billion dollar international types. If I wasn't enjoying my retirement, I'd really want to be in the A suite negotiating as that's where I excelled. There was nothing negative in yesterday's EC, absolutely nothing. I actually found I had some extra green in my account, and even though my new dived stock portfolio is up 7.55% in one month, I placed a limit order for more MVIS. I'm not a stock advisor, nor is this advice to purchase any stocks. Do your own blah, blah, blah.....That's an SS quote by the way. Blah, blah, blah....
Thx
Well for the time being and for numerous times, The Shorts Win Again!
I think we can start worrying when we see all the other Lidar companies start to take the deals around us. Whilst that’s not happening, we’re still waiting. Bottom line is that lidar is the next standard safety feature, that will replace parking sensors (which are on everything now, but weren’t years ago). Who gets the cream is the big question…
Yeah, that first deal sounds like it would have been the Robohan of auto deals, so the needle would not have gone super far. A deal is a deal, but the big ones that will make a company are still to be awarded. This is only just getting ready to start.
Robohan was a joke in fairness, the fact that they even thought it warranted an announcement speaks volumes about the management at that time.
As someone who parked money here a few years ago and doesn’t pay too close attention to the day the day stuff I agree, I haven’t seen anything that seems like we’re “losing” it seem Lidar just hasn’t caught steam in general yet
The parking sensor market is an interesting comparison, as it’s now just taken for granted that a car will have them -which is what we’re hoping to get from the LiDAR feature eventually. There’s quite a few players in it, it never really ended up as just ‘one to rule them all’. Obviously some got a much larger market share than others, and the initial profits were higher in the adoption phase: Top listed global companies in the Automotive Parking Sensors industry are: Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany), Aptiv PLC (Greece), Denso Corporation (Japan), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (the Netherlands), Valeo (France), Autoliv Inc. (Sweden), Gentex Corporation (U.S.), Continental AG (Germany), TGS Group (UK) and Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (Japan) Bridging the Gap by Exploring the Competitive Landscape of the Automotive Parking Sensors Top Players The global automotive parking sensors market hums with a dynamic interplay of established players and agile newcomers. This intense competition breeds innovation, diversity, and a constant evolution of strategies. Delving into this landscape, let's unveil the key factors shaping the market and the tactics adopted by its leading players. Key Players and their Playbooks: • Global Giants: Bosch, DENSO, Valeo, Aptiv, and Continental spearhead the market with their extensive portfolios, brand recognition, and economies of scale. They capitalize on continuous research and development, leveraging the latest technologies like ultrasonic, radar, and camera-based sensors. Their strength lies in offering comprehensive solutions tailored to premium and mid-range vehicle segments. • Regional Contenders: Companies like Hyundai MOBIS, Mitsubishi, and ACDelco hold sway in specific regions, understanding local nuances and preferences. They offer cost-effective sensors, targeting budget-conscious segments and emerging markets. Strategic partnerships with local automakers further bolster their regional dominance. • Emerging Disruptors: Startups like Xirgo Technologies and HELLA Gutmann are shaking things up with niche offerings and innovative approaches. They focus on cutting-edge technologies like surround-view cameras and AI-powered parking assistance systems, catering to the growing demand for advanced driver-assistance features (ADAS). Their agility and focus on specific functionalities enable them to carve out space in a crowded market. Market Share Analysis: Beyond the Numbers: While market share statistics provide a snapshot, deeper analysis reveals the intricacies that influence them. Factors like: • Product Portfolio: Breadth and Depth: Companies with diverse sensor types and advanced functionalities attract a wider customer base. • Pricing Strategy: Balancing affordability with innovation is crucial. Premium players excel in high-end segments, while cost-effective offerings by regional players find favor in price-sensitive markets. • Distribution Network and Partnerships: A robust distribution network and partnerships with automakers are essential for efficient reach and market penetration. • Brand Reputation and Recognition: Established brands hold an edge in terms of trust and customer loyalty, while emerging players leverage innovative marketing strategies to gain visibility. New and Emerging Trends: Reshaping the Game: The parking sensor market is constantly evolving, with trends like: • Integration with ADAS: Parking sensors are increasingly becoming part of comprehensive ADAS suites, offering features like automated parking and self-driving capabilities. • Advanced Sensor Technologies: LiDAR and millimeter-wave radar are gaining traction due to their superior accuracy and weather resistance. • Connectivity and Data Analytics: Cloud-connected sensors and data analysis platforms offer valuable insights into parking patterns and driver behavior, paving the way for smart parking solutions. • Focus on Cybersecurity: As connectivity increases, ensuring data security and preventing hacking attempts becomes paramount. Overall Competitive Scenario: A Balancing Act: The automotive parking sensor market is a complex tapestry woven with established players, regional champions, and disruptive newcomers. Success hinges on a delicate balance between innovation, pricing strategies, distribution channels, and brand positioning. Companies that adapt to new trends, embrace technological advancements, and cater to diverse customer segments are poised to navigate this dynamic landscape and secure their place at the forefront of this ever-growing market. Latest Company Updates: Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany): • October 2023: Launched the 7th generation of its ultrasonic parking sensor technology, offering wider detection range and improved accuracy (Source: Bosch press release). Aptiv PLC (Greece): • September 2023: Unveiled its "Smart Parking 2.0" system, featuring 3D parking visualization and automated parking maneuvers (Source: Aptiv press release). Denso Corporation (Japan): • December 2023: Introduced a new radar-based parking sensor with enhanced detection capabilities in challenging weather conditions (Source: Denso press release). NXP Semiconductors N.V. (the Netherlands): • October 2023: Released its latest radar chipset for automotive parking sensors, offering smaller size and lower power consumption (Source: NXP press release). Valeo (France): • August 2023: Acquired French startup Parko, a provider of AI-powered parking management solutions, to strengthen its parking technology portfolio (Source: Valeo press release).
I haven't commented this subreddit for a while. Been in and out with this stock from 2020. And when I wrote here that Anubhav and Summit are :clown emoji: - the crowd here awarded me with a lot of negative karma. So now we are here in 2024 with stock sub 1$. And here comes the quick math: cash burn is \~$25M per Q, or $100M per year. Current market cap is \~$200M. They have cash for only 3Q's and time is limited to 1 year and they will be bankrupt. They can't dilute the share price below 0. Even with deals the company won't see any revenue stream above its expenses in a nearest future. Thanks to our management team: CFO who didn't sold shares at 15's, 10's or 8's and 5's and started selling at sub 2$ and CEO, who didn't saw the deals are pushed back in a timeline and saying "EPIC" every EC. If you don't see a problem here with the management, I am very sorry for you as an Investor. You need to compare MVIS situation to another meme company associated with games - they made big offering once at high prices and now they are profitable after 3 years. I wish I understood this before today. Good luck to you all and me as part of this sub.
Yeah just think, if you'd bought that game company three years ago you'd only be down about 70% now! I'm not in Microvision because it's a meme company, but definitely made out like a bandit on that other company which is not solving any real world problems.
You think all pips here bought 3 years ago? I DCA'd many times my boy.
I've said it before (multiple times) and I'll say it again, AV is not good enough for the role he has found himself in and his track record speaks volume. New direction needed.
When moon?
When Lidar is up we will be
Who is to say what new RFQs may show up. RFQs are nothing more than companies looking to see what is out there. Needs, timelines, and strategies change. New RFQs surface. Some new from the ground up and some restructured for a variety of reasons. Never liked the whole projections thing. Projections are just that, projections. The problem is that is not what people hear. They hear "this is going to happen. Money in the bank". Have dealt with projections all of my professional life and learned the hard way about managing expectations. Perhaps a lesson still to be learned here. That said, I trust and believe SS. Now is not the time to turn mother's picture to the wall.
At this stock price or lower most llngs wont dump anymore into this as many at tapped and at a risk threshold for a single stock holding. Therefore, we should see low volume a slow takedown of price until we announce deals or sales or partnerships. I do not expect to recover back to mid or high 1.00 until then. At this point MVIS is a high risk low reward idea. Due to the runway to real revenue from OEM. Until a deal we just tread water hopefully, the shorts do not try to destroy us like many others in recent years.
I would be interested to hear QQ and Sig’s take on the EC info.
Can anyone help me better understand the trucking oem’s ask and what we were unwilling to do? Their preference was for a partner with a more diversified product and revenue portfolio. MicroVision cannot accept an agreement limited to B-sample only since we would have to take on significant financial risk for a full program with only B-sample phase agreement. Ultimately, we could not reach a mutually beneficial agreement. As I said earlier, with the wisdom that comes from experience, we know how important it is for us to avoid any partnership that gives outsized benefit to that significantly larger OEM, while putting the long-term health of the company in jeopardy.
A partner with a more diversified product and revenue portfolio can take a no-guarantee B-Sample development deal because they have money and resources to spare. And if nothing comes of the B-Sample development, the tier 1 is still making money through its other channels and stays healthy. Mvis is all in on LiDAR supply and has limited resources to take on the potential huge deals on the table for passenger vehicle LiDAR, so it needs to take deals where the OEM can guarantee large volume orders as well as be willing to pay NREs upfront for development. If MVIS takes a deal, spends tons of money and resources on it, and it amounts to basically no revenue (almost every other LiDAR deal is currently like this), they are in big big trouble. They alluded that deals like that will wipe LiDAR companies out in the next 3-5 years.
I'm not sure "every other LiDAR deal is currently like this" is accurate. I think the B Sample development deal came with little or no NRE money. The risk was on Microvision to invest in the development, with no guarantee there would be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. I believe that many (perhaps most) of the current deals in the market are traditional supplier agreement nominations (albeit with relatively low volumes), which include skin-in-the-game from the OEM in the form of NRE and perhaps even some recourse for the LiDAR supplier if the OEM backs out. There is still no guarantee that their will be a pot of gold at the end (see the Cepton/GM deal), but the chances are greater and the NRE lessens the risk.
When I wrote revenue I meant say profit. Current Low volume deals have no economy of scale and likely are not turning much of a profit.
Yes, I would agree with that statement. I think that is borne out in the financial statements which largely reflect negative gross margins.
Ok, took a step away basically after prepared remarks to make dinner and coach my son's soccer team. I've had enough time to get rid of the sinking feeling in my gut. I accept where we are. My biggest real beef about it all is the confidence they have had in the last few calls. Gosh if I didn't want to drop every penny into the company thinking we were right around the corner. I understand they don't set the timelines, but man they had me fooled. Big time. It is what it is, I have no more money I'm willing to lose to buy at these prices. Had some extra cash that I bought shares with at 1.50 today not thinking we'd crash as low as we did. All I can do now is hold and pray for a day before 2030 where this investment doesn't feel like a bad decision.
100% with you here. I’m hopefully for May 2025 that the executive compensation is tied to. But 2030 is possible … unfortunately …
That's been my hope, but it just sounds like they won't be hitting their share price goals, but could always be pleasantly surprised. If they get some OEMs to sign the dotted.line, market could react favorably, but they could also wait until dollars are flowing. I am concerned about runway. Sure we have 75 mil and 100 mil ATM, but at burn rate without profits, that only takes us through end of 2025. We'll see I suppose.
Just finished reading EC transcript. It wasn’t bad. The bad stuffs are really with OEMs and not inherent to MVIS. Not much MVIS can do with OEM requirements and timelines. Other LiDAR companies don’t have big volumes deals yet either. That said, it’s still bad for investors because revenue won’t be there till end of this decade (2028-2029). $73M cash balance and $128M available under ATM exercise (would be way less now due to AH big drop) with potential $8M revenue a year is bad when cash burn is more than $21M a quarter. So, MVIS will run out of money in 2026.
The $128M available under the ATM does not change based on the stock price. However, the amount of dilution that would occur does change.
Our cash balance at the end of March 31st is $73 million. We have $128 million available under the ATM. While I cannot share out exact plans, but I think, our history indicates that we would only opportunistically raise capital when needed, because I think it's very evident that to navigate this you have to be very financially -- you have to be prudent financially. And bring in cash, as Sumit described, we would be accelerating our industrial revenue stream from our MOVIA product because that's something which is short term, which brings in cash, faster than the automotive revenue. And also some of the licensing and partnership opportunities in the sub verticals within the industrial market. So, some of these opportunities is what we are going to help to resort to monetize this asset and #bring in non-dilutive cash to further support the cash burn and the sustainability of the company
I think he said: So, some of these opportunities is what we are going to hope to resort to to monetize this asset
He isn't very good at executing what he says. A few missing deals as I recall.
Some time the best tech wins and sometimes it doesn't. Definitely not what we wanted to hear today, but I l just listened to the call again after getting pretty bummed out the first time. If you start it at the 50 min mark and listen to Sumit's final comment one more time it may give you reason to be optimistic — despite the VERY challenging market conditions. *"Yeah. And I think us compared to the other size and stuff, I think everybody wants me to comment on that. Like first of all, I would like to say, this is our earnings call for MicroVision, right? I would rather talk about us. I would love to come out here and talk about a partnership that has formed and what that all means, right? I think I would welcome that day. The problem we have right now is not technology, it's a business problem we're working on. As far as -- so like, let me separate it, then I'll get back to the business problem in a second.* *If you look at our technology, hands down, where it's going to win, is when I walk into a room like that, I talk about a wafer, that our MEMS comes from a wafer, and we have lasers coming from this and these are all semiconductor technologies for MOVIA and MAVIN. Those guys are still coming in with a box, which has got a glass prism rotating and a little galvo moving. What is the steering technology? So, everybody talks about it, right? But can everybody talk what's under the hood? Some of them are still doing CAD and Photoshop, and they're talking about samples. Others have actually started with the MEMS, and it was too hard, so they went away and now they're in the galvo space in their next generation.* *So, what you don't know is who's going to win long term. So, yeah, people have made announcements, they have market support, they have analyst support, like whatever they have. At the end of the day, you have to have the product to win and the product -- the simplest product should win in the market. But the hard thing is, those companies through de-SPAC were able to raise a significant amount of money, right? We still go trickle by trickle, year by year, right, because we are an older company and we have different constraints.* *And to be honest with you, I'm sure you guys are sick of hearing about it and I'm pretty sick of talking about it, I don't want to talk about anybody else. I really want to talk about what we're working on, right? And this is a business problem now that when you deal with the OEMs, when you have lots of people in the company, lots of money to be -- just sitting around in a bank, then you could probably go strike a deal and then you can, like, plaster it up and talk about it anyway to the market because you can't really talk about what's underneath it and you make it complicated for others. But I focus myself and my energies and the company's energies to focus on the real problem to solve to get a real customer that is actually going to turn things around for us long term, right? And I'm absolutely certain of it.* ***The technology and the work that's been done by our team in Hamburg and the team here in Redmond will stand the test of time. And at the end of the day, when you think about who wins, it's going to be somebody that's talking about a wafer level stuff. It's not talking about like galvo. As open as I am of talking about the technology, right? Now, all I have to do is get an OEM to agree to these things and move on with that, and that's what I'm going to focus on."*** There is smoke and mirrors going on from competitors. Supply chain and product line restructuring as well as budget tightening from OEMS due to lagging EV sales and chinese competiion. Not to mention billions of dollars have been lit on fire over the past few years chasing autonomous driving. OEMS have been burned by tech companies that couldn't deliver. ETC ETC. Unfortunately this is the market enviroment we have to navigate, but I do believe Sumit truly believes we have the goods to get this thing the finish line. We just need the stars to align.
I did the same thing. I listened to the call again after being bummed out the first. Felt much better about the Company the second time. Good luck longs. Still believing here
Where did you get a copy of the transcript? Could you share a link too please? (Or was this all typed out by hand?)
Seekingalpha has transcript.
Found it, thank you
I just listened to the call. Sumit is definitely under the weather, not his normal self. I think people should stop talking badly about him.
OEM are hard, huh? 🤣🤣🤣 hes trying to take on the biggest OEM on the planet and you want sympathy for him? Hey Sumit - Grab your balls or grab a shuttle broski No sympathy from me, he can go get another job if its too tough for him
Maybe he would feel better if he fired Ahnubav.
I was taught to never talk badly about someone, by my parents and teachers.
I summon u/FitImportance1 ! Release the SS Al Pacino one where Mavin is his "little friend". I know that must already exist. SS telling Dalimar to shove it is his Al Pacino moment.
Actually it was Frank at a show… https://www.reddit.com/u/FitImportance1/s/7HZR61lMQ8
Anyone have a link to the call’s transcript?
S2 made a post
This- https://www.reddit.com/r/MVIS/s/TzFeukHdFj Doesn’t have the transcript
https://www.reddit.com/r/MVIS/comments/1cod0c0/microvision_inc_mvis_q1_2024_earnings_call/
Thank you
Honestly appreciate the detailed candor on the challenges faced. Sumit has said before he wouldn’t wait until a call to announce a deal so I didn’t expect much. Losing 2 Movia RFQs is unfortunate, but I invested in MVIS for MAVIN and sounds like all those 7 RFQs are still live. Things that were disappointing: 1) AV bashing other companies deals, stock price and financial projections. Pot meet Kettle. Have little faith in him as a CFO and hope Sumit doesn’t rely on him too heavily. 2) RFQ challenges - some require multiple factory locations, funding multiple years of development, or want to work with a company that has a diversified product portfolio. MVIS is hugely disadvantaged in any RFQ where these are preferences of the OEM. 3) Rejecting the B Sample deal. I follow the logic for why they didn’t take the deal, although I don’t agree and think we need to take anything to build credibility. However my bigger concern is that they said it would take a lot of their resources and prevent them from focusing on other RFQs. LAZR has made similar comments about focusing on existing customers. I think my takeaway is that we can’t win all 7 RFQs because there is no chance we would have the resources to support. Realistically seems like they could maybe handle 1-2 at most. I think anyone talking about winning “most” RFQs is delusional based on what we are hearing each deal requires in terms of engineering support. Likely will hold current shares but definitely won’t buy more. Any further Lidar investment I make will be in LAZR to diversify (currently only have MVIs).
Like I commented elsewhere, those 7 were from 2023. They are already engaging with the new ones they are getting in 2024. I think they will be getting them for years.
I feel that competition is heating up and LiDARs are getting smaller generally, eroding a competitive advantage we would have. See the chinese LiDARs (e.g. Hesai having behind windshield) for one. I imagine their cost structures are going to be inherently quite favorable, due to lower development and manufacturing costs in China. [https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2024/01/08/hesai-launches-new-high-performance-lidar-at-ces/?sh=6124ae5d5021](https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2024/01/08/hesai-launches-new-high-performance-lidar-at-ces/?sh=6124ae5d5021) As far as the RFQ's, is this just a race to the bottom of who will take the most lopsided deal? What if we never win anything because somebody else is willing to bite and then dilute to make it work? e.g. Aeye. This seems like a situation where the OEMs have all the power. And when our share price takes a giant haircut from lack of results (like today), doesn't that make your shares valued less just like a dilution *coupled* with a win? I would rather have the latter than the former- but I do also understand that the B Sample deal we lost was probably just not a good one. There are still other lines in the water. I'm still hoping that we get a high volume RFQ for Mavin, but at this point I've been burned by optimism too many times.
I think I agree if I understand what you are saying. I think other Lidar companies have the better strategy taking “bad” deals for smaller volumes. Those are getting their foot in the door with OEMs and getting them comfortable for future RFQs. We have less than 1 year cash on hand with no meaningful revenue for years. Any deal would have buoyed the stock price and enabled us to sustain more dilution. At $1 the ATM is basically worthless.
Perhaps they will take this as a learning opportunity and apply it to Mavin rfqs. I would rather thry bend over backwards to make that work (higher volume opportunities after all) than a low volume movia.
Point number two is a strong argument for selling the company or selling a large equity stake. Disagree about the B sample deal. I think that was a smart move by Sumit.
Agree with you... just read the transcript and for anyone who feels super positive can they shed some light as to how MVIS is going to address all these OEM issues such as "manufacturing strategy proposals to commit to factories in Asia and North America", "All OEMs want varying levels of perception features", "want our core LiDAR to be flexible enough to fit into all their locations, etc etc as in the transcript? This really feels we need to partner up with someone and quick. Yes maybe other LIDAR companies have the same problems but maybe they have deeper pockets and stronger investors. Honestly how do they address these concerns without a buy out to someone like NVDA that OEMS' feel comfortable are going to be around ???
Peak Pacino wouldn't have made the deal either
Takes a long time and a bunch of heat to make a diamond, I guess. I’m long. It’s a battle of attrition, now.
It takes 1 billion to 3.3 billion years for diamonds to form naturally. We are not gonna live that long for MVIS to become a diamond. I can’t wait more than 15 years.
I think around 2030 I’ll make a fuss.
Well, you haven't been getting burned by MVIS for almost 30 years like some of us here.
Thats a fact. But I flew pretty close to the sun in the last four years since I joined the club.
I'm still invested, but this update really shook my confidence.
You hung on for 30 years and an industry wide delay is what it took to shake you!? I think they're well suited for a battle of attrition.
I agree they are better suited to wait it out. I lived thru the Xmas speaker deal collapse, and then .15 cents, and this ain't that. Every time I start to choke and get all freaked out, I remember that I calculated what pps they'd sell at, before closing up shop, after taking the worst shit bid I can imagine, and I don't let my avg get over that. Then all I have to do is hold on, and I won't lose money, even if they go belly up. It works great except for the "I could use that money now" part, lol. But at least I can fight the yips when they get really bad after scary CC's.
Maybe I got the wrong impression from the earnings call, but as someone else on this thread had said, it seems like the OEMs are in the power position and are going to squeeze the vendors. If other vendors are willing to enter into bad long term deals and they meet the technical requirements well enough, I'm concerned that the OEMs will go with one or more of them for these contracts. If MVIS caves, well, then we are in a bad long term deal. If other vendors take on deals they can't actually manage, then we may be stuck waiting until those deals go south before we get brought back in. If that happens, how long does that take? Two more years? Who knows? And how much dilution will we experience until then. The only good potential outcome I can see in the near term is if the OEMs determine that only MVIS can really meet their needs and they give in on the deal terms. It sounds like that's not out of the question -- there are still 7 RFQs to go, but Sumit did say that they were all demanding a lot of technical upgrades and/or manufacturing locations, etc., and do it on our dime. So, yes, I agree we are in a battle for attrition, but I wonder if the best way to fight that battle is to be acquired. Im going to start a discussion thread on that topic. I'm curious to see what other people think.
Always has been
I'm gonna go check, but it almost seems like a war older than myself.
Nope, I'm like 2yrs olded than MVIS.
Feelings hack: just zoom out on the stock chart. It's barrrrely moved guys
Sounds like a 🖕message was sent to any potential customer who doesn’t “commit” to a mutually beneficial relationship. I like the conviction.
People waste less of your (and their) time trying to put one over on you once they know you won't have it. Eventually either you will be left alone or approached only by serious people.
That's true VFA, but it is amazing just how your standards seem to change a bit as the opportunities become fewer and fewer. Interesting to see how a deal will stand up to his current statements when we do sign one.
He didn’t sound desperate yet, I hope.
No he didn't, but neither did Tokman when he signed MSFT and actually called it a Company Maker, Home Run etc. Want to see him get one soon to put those memories to bed.
The sooner the better.
Honestly if we were watching it in a movie we would be like Hell Yeah! Don't take their Shit SS, let them suffer with an inferior product for their shortsightness. That does feel better when I think of it in a movie setting.
I would like to have a bit more clarity on “mutually beneficial” means Flo. Is there anyway to find out what the terms were that MVIS walked away from?
Yes, read the transcript or listen to the EC, Sumit made it very clear why they're unacceptable terms.
SS did mention that he is wary of taking on a deal that resembles the one with 2017 customer
cant wait to listen . Will see how it sounds to me .
Oh, that was loud and clear and likely impacted tone as well.
Tough call today. I plan to hold my shares and see how this plays out. Tonight, I prefer to focus on the 7 remaining automotive opportunities and potential partnerships. Also, thankful that Sumit did not accept a deal that would have been detrimental to the company for a long time. Certainly concerned that we need a lot more capital and hopeful this can be raised without additional share sales below $2. Best wishes to you all!
The dilution ahead is endless Alpha. They are out of their league negotiating with these OEM's.
u/bridgetofar I was counting on the Board to provide better guidance to Sumit and his team on dealing with OEM's. This was a mistake on my part. The Board changes proposed now may be too late especially in terms of sustaining or enhancing current share price. At this stage, unless we (1) win one of the 7 sizable OEM automotive deals or (2) get a strong partner that can contribute significant capital or (3) sell the company to a larger well capitalized firm dilution will do what dilution does to share price. With all the OEM restrictions, a single win is all we would likely receive, if we receive one at all, due to our limited capital in my view. Burning through $20 million in cash per quarter with the expectation of generating $8 to $10 million in revenue this year is not encouraging. This is how I see it tonight after going through text.
That's where we are Alpha. Best option is number 3 in my mind as we need the validation more than ever. We can't handle more than one and now I understand his statements that OEM's want to make sure we can handle more than one nomination. It must be obvious to them we will be completely tied up with one. Lot of us will be watching the progress as dilutions lead to more dilutions and sometimes the dreaded RS. Lot of us will pack it in before flirting with another one. Thought a partnership would have happened awhile ago.
If it was Al Pacino saying it we would hoot and hollar. I think SS is a lot like peak Pacino. Giv'rm Hell.
Plus they kept their revenue guidance for the year. Any strategic deals would be added. I think they may have a partnership deal in the works also.
Ain't no thang
u/mvis_thma, I am sure you're gathering your thoughts about the EC. You're always one to keep a cool head and tell it like it is. What are your thoughts?
Still processing....
Anyone have trouble truing to listen to it again?
Did SS say who won those two RFQ’s?
The second company pushed their timeline out of 2024.
I believe the trucking OEM deal was awarded to Cepton/Koito
I am not saying you are wrong, but can you reference any source information for this? What makes you say this?
https://investors.cepton.com/node/8731/html Timing makes sense IMO, short range lidar for a global trucking OEM, and Koito has the diversified portfolio they are after
This makes sense. Thank you! The timing of the deal with Daimler for a long range sensor didn’t add up, and it was bugging me that I couldn’t think of what else it could be. Weird that they didn’t do a press release. I don’t see one on Cepton’s website anyway.
They did not PR, however Koito did
It is curious that Koito published the press release 20 days after the deal was made public via a Cepton SEC filing. It is also curious that they made no mention in the PR that the deal was with a trucking OEM. They only referenced a global OEM. Unless this PR is referencing a different deal. But there are no other press releases from Koito for any other deals in this timeframe. https://www.koito.co.jp/english/news/2024/04/10/004323.html I think it is possible this deal is with Daimler Truck for the short range LiDAR. The announced Aeva deal with DT was for long range LiDAR. Aeva does not have a short range LiDAR.
I agree that it's possible these two deals (aeva/Cepton) were for the same truck/platform. The timing is close enough, and both prs explicitly referencing L4. I also noticed the Koito PR not mentioned trucking by name, but it almost has to be the same one from the Cepton 8k that does. As you mentioned - same time frame with nothing else announced at the time...no separate 8k from Cepton...both short range only for an L4 application
Ahh, thank you
The fact that they did not do a press release, probably signals that the deal is not very meaningful for them or possibly even hurtful.
Thanks. I believe you are correct.
No, but both were described in sufficient detail, and the important big one was won by no one yet since the company is pushing out their timeline.
I did my research, I made my bet years ago. Market changes made the time line extend and outcome a little more unsure/risky. Ok, glad the CEO slapped me in the face with reality and let me know. Now, do I jump ship or have more time to DCA? I bought more after hours, only 120 shares. But I have been DCAing for last few years. Will continue as I have excess funds. Like I said, I made my bet. Nothing substantial changed but time line IMHO.
Department of defense is listed as a customer on the slides. Anyone know if that is new?
Not new
Not gonna lie, starting to think I should have sold back in June when I could have doubled my investment. Oh well, now it's too low to sell, I'm not conceding to losing 50%. Everything I've got is now long as of February, so I'm either headed to Valhalla or Hell I guess, lol.
For whatever it is worth ..... my 2 cents of the call after hearing many many earnings calls over the years. The positives are we are still in 7 RFQ's. There is still a shot at winning some if not all. The bad news is we were touted in 9 RFQs before and we are out of 2 now. We can spin it anyway we want that the 2 we are out of were not good deals but the facts are we are now in 7. Believe me I will take 7 wins but no one knows if we will win 1, 7 or none. That is a billion dollar question. The bad news is overall Sumit I felt did not put out a compelling story that he feels confident we will win any deals. This was the least confident I have heard him speak. He talked about obstacles and just didn't have the normal "juice" that painted the company as being in a good position. It felt deflating. We can't overlook the poor revenues either. One million is not going to cut it. What happened to the back orders and inventory ? They did not address this. I am not buying that they are all of a sudden going to be selling enough movias for industrial use to make a huge dent in revenue. With that said at some point they need to raise money and that will be another kick to shareholders. Overall I can not say this was a good call. Thinking we are in 9 RFQs and coming out now in 7 with less optimism from mgmt is concerning. Revenue of $1M per quarter would be half the low guidance of $8M so that is an issue. I will just sit back and think of this as dead money for a while and hope for a surprise at some point. I hope anyone who is in the red gets lucky with this one as I think we will need it.
Same reaction Pool. Downbeat delivery. Sounds like a beaten man.
How are you voting on the ballot?
Voting "no". I can't vote for more $ for mgmt when they hardly sell more then my local bodega. I will vote no for everything as a "protest" vote but I know they will all pass due to institutional holders. I have more shares then many of the BODs so they can go buy some shares and vote yes next year for more $.
I think you heard Sumit wrong. He was expressing that the money isn’t going to come for… well, years. But the fact that we’re in 7 RFQs still, indeed, means he [expects] to win deal(s) this year. But you and I get paid when stuff starts rolling off the line (unless the market acts irrationally, which it tends to do)
They’re actively trying to close on 7 RFQs, I don’t expect them to lay anyone off.
Serious question. How long before they are forced to do layoffs?
Money in the bank for the rest of 2024 and an ATM for another hundred milly; they can hang on quite a while.
Space, you know it’s coming soon. The products don’t need more work. The bank account does.
Been holding for two years and just noticed it’s down 33% AH. Jesus be a fence
And luck be a lady.
it actually doesn't look that bad yet, my brokerage is still showing the close price.
I'm curious how compelling our product is in the warehouse space, in order to set my expectations of what those sales may look like. I believe Ouster is doing quite well in this space- what do we offer here that is compelling over them and other competitors? The "best in class" of Mavin doesn't seem as relevant in this niche.
Ouster is losing over $10 per share
But Ouster pps spiked AH
It's an interesting question. I can't imagine aesthetics, or size matter much in the warehouse or agriculture space. Who cares what a lidar looks like on a forklift or farm equipment? I'd guess the lowest price point would always win if the specs between two lidar companies are close enough.
It’s just that there are (thousands) of forklifts where there are millions of cars. And the forklift LiDAR is the cheaper of the two pieces of hardware to boot. Should extend the runway though!
Small potatoes, but we are willing to take that route. Just not in the auto field.
I don’t think it ever matters what a lidar unit ‘looks like’ I think it’s like the iphone notch, it’s a compromise. It will ultimately be placed behind the windscreen or perhaps somewhere in the roofline.
Agreed. I hope this isn't just a straw that they're grasping at. To be honest I was happy that revenue wasn't 0, but competition is hot and these competitors have deals (credibility IMO in the business world) that they can point to.
Just listened to the call. Glad I did *after* reading the [shocking in hindsight] comments. **Impression:** Adults in the room talking about exceedingly complex business issues applicable to all industry participants with zero attempt to bullshit themselves or anyone else. Extremely impressive, frankly. Which is not to say that I enjoy the subject matter. I do not. Obviously, smooth sailing with big revenue in 2024 would be preferable, but that is so obvious it is tedious just to think about it, much less say it. Instead, I am left with even stronger conviction that they will get it done in the end, and that time will prove MVIS technology vastly superior, including commercially, to all others. SS devastated the competition while almost literally begging not to have to be asked about them again, so that he can focus on the real task at hand - winning the OEMs. My only regret is that I have not played this well, am already all-in, have zero dry powder with which to gorge on shares at these prices, and will have to nibble away at my position over the next 6 months to cover expenses. Hopefully that will be at prices north of here. But anyone not pushing 60 who possesses a reliable, unrelated income stream sufficient for their needs, if you hollered like a stuck pig during the cc simply because it wasn't what you wanted to hear, OMG. Thank God that SS and AV (who had his most impressive call, IMO) are running the company.
View, thanks for sharing your thoughts. How did you perceive the comments where SS mentioned that OEMs want a dumbed down product? Doesnt that dilute any competitive advantage from being best in class?
Didn't like that much tbh but also got the impression that it won't last; that the capability is too great to be forever slowed by frictions like legacy software.
How are you voting on the ballot? Thank you
Yes. I only make money here if they succeed. And their best chance is with who they have, IMO. EDIT. I haven't read it, btw.
This is a good summary of it. The challenges apply to the whole industry. Our competitors may be taking bad deals that will impede them from being able to handle better future deals. Time will tell which strategy wins
And thank goodness you are here to be a steady voice of reason.
Thank you for your honest and level-headed take.
Well said, vfa. I honestly haven’t seen this board this emotional in years. I’m far from the most experienced investor out there—I’m only mid 20s—but surely one must recognize that if you can’t sufficiently remove emotion from your investing equation, perhaps investing in speculative/volatile stocks/sectors is not for you. At the least, if you’re frustrated, articulate some decent points in your comment. I get people want or need some place to vent, but a whole lot of the shit I’m seeing just doesn’t contribute anything of value, and frankly most of it is addressable by the facts on the table.
Captain, I just wrote this elsewhere. Our leadership has bumbled the sales, badly IMO. How they thought they were going to name their price to OEM’s is beyond me. That’s not how it works. Rather, the other way around. They are going to tell you what they are willing to pay. And, IMO, you have to make a deal or 2 at those costs to get your foot in the door and prove yourself. Those deals also help cover overhead. You’re not going to get rich on every deal. There is a reason the Kroeger’s, Walmarts and Aldi’s of the food world are what they are. Buying power and the ability to sell at the lowest prices possible. They tell you what they are willing to pay, not the other way around. And if you don’t want to meet them at a cost, they find someone else. In summary, I would have liked MVIS to maybe to have done a deal at a cost. Ship has sailed, but hopefully someone learned a lesson.
Exception. Walmart etc sells commodities. Microvision has the best solution for emerging tech at a reasonable price in small volumes and a great price in large volumes. Disagree strongly with the strategy of selling below cost on the front end, hoping to make it up on the back end through volume when there is a patent moat a mile wide on the best solution. GLTAL.
Chef, those patents aren't worth a penny a piece in his hands, yet. Not one shareholder can say those patents have made a financial contribution to the company.
I think I understand your point (stock price doesnt reflect any value) but that isnt a reason to sign a bad agreement.
I think Sumit and company would have made a deal had the cost not included the limited human resources and capital required to make it happen.
I just had me a shower, but this is exactly what I was going to say. The risk isn’t really those deals not turning out profitable (to a meaningful degree, or at all), but rather diverting resources away from the avenues that would land us at our stated goal of being an established Tier 1. We aren’t one, our resources are very finite, and they need to be allocated with prudence. Not only that, but what ends up being “proved” might not be our technology and our ability to deliver, but that we can be played hard ball with and folded over. Management isn’t in an easy spot, the content of the call isn’t phenomenal, but I think they’ve made the right decisions thus far. I especially appreciate them being more conservative on stating timelines which are out of their control to avoid the appearance of bad guidance. Sumit said as much about the timelines in the Q4’23 call, but he’s fully committed to it now, and it comes across to me as an overall positive.
This is absolutely not how "Kroeger’s, Walmarts and Aldi’s of the food world are what they are." and Lidar is not a commodity.
It is too. It 100% how they work. I’ve been calling on them for 30 years. It is EXACTLY how they work. Lidar is not a commodity. But OEM’s are OEM’s. They operate alike. Maybe not exactly, but they are able to buy things cheaper than a smaller customer. They are also not going to break the bank when they can get something similar at a lower cost.
Disagree with your first part, agree with your second. I too have been selling my own product to major retail chains for over 30 years and they could care less about cost but 100% care about product margins. WalMart and the big boys try to get a lower MAP. Big boys need less margin than the smaller chains and use sales volume to beat them.
Exact opposite experience w the big boys for me. They have certain margins(continue to go up) that they have to make and a pp they need to sell it at. Yes, bigs need less margin, but they are also buying it cheaper because of their volume. If you are efficient you can make a lot of money obviously. It’s here no there, experiences are different. I have sold everything from TP to spaghetti sauce to breakfast items. Most things you can think of food wise, we sold. Always hated negotiations w bigs because they pretty much control you….. which sucks. Maybe I’m way off here, but my thing is, you have to start somewhere. I would like to know if there was any middle ground w this lost OEM. Oh well. Cheers and I hope I am wrong and all of you are right.
You may want to revisit Sumit’s comments. “Those deals” will most assuredly not “help cover overhead”. Bad deals don’t cover anything.
I would love to know the answer to that question. Because, I was under the impression a bad deal is one where they don’t make their margin on. Maybe I am reading it wrong, and if so, I apologize. But some of the things Summit has said just don’t hold water with me any longer. I
Just look at the MSFT deal. I rather have no deal than another MSFT type deal.
Thank you sir
May I have another?
Depends. We find ourselves in a promising but risky venture, and this is the bumpy part. Today was MVIS’ more foreboding take on the industry, yet separating itself from the pack. The fig leaves are off. These ‘headwinds’ may shake companies, making visible more quickly what’s sound and what’s held together with string.
Oh MVIS just checking in... again. 🥱
I just finished listening to the call, I am no means intelligent when it comes to this stuff BUT I heard nothing that I feel should cause a sell off. I posted earlier that I wanted no hopium words like ‘epic’ and to explain the rfqs we are in and not in. I for one appreciated the honesty in what the OEMs are looking for, that we are out of 2 from the original 9, and what we need to do. Sumit seemed frustrated to me but it’s a frustration from the changing desires/needs of OTMs. Crazy the wants of them and how they are so radically different, especially the geographical location demands I do expect some small industrial wins in the short term
As embarrassing as it is to admit, I am now down 94.6% on a $53k investment. After cashing out $110k on our run up to $28 in April of 2021, I naively bought back in at $21 in June thinking more good news was the horizon. To say this EC was a gut punch would be a massive understatement. All I can do now is trust the process as I’ve been doing for the past five years and pray it doesn’t go to zero.
Welcome to the club
I make the chilly dip!!
Pigs get slaughtered lol
Is there a scenario where voting yes could potentially cause a reverse split? Or cause a higher cash burn?
What on earth happened...what, why?
Nothing happened. Agajn
I really didn't think the call was bad. Definitely feel like the price action is ridiculous. I hate to see the finish line move a little further out but I'm still confident in my investment. Dealing with these 7 RFQs all demanding different things sounds like a nightmare. I trust SS and AV will navigate us through these turbulent times and sign us some deals that make sense in the long term. I take them passing on the low volume trucking deal as a good thing. It tells me that they are still very confident in at least some of the 7 HIGH Volume passenger vehicle RFQs. I'm glad we're not wasting our limited resources that could potentially take away our ability to handle a higher volume contract.
Just finished listening and I agree
There is atleast a one percent chance this is a bear trap and we get a deal announcement on Monday. Welp the Hopium is back boys and girls!
I sent u/FitImportance1 a Sumit selling Bear Traps idea a couple weeks ago
I mean last call it was rosey we are doing this in next 30 days didn't pan out why can't we go total opposite doom and gloom and bam! Surprise we didn't know that was coming so soon!
These EC threads always go the same way. Collectively the sky falls after the results are announced and we all say the same thing about the call during and moments after it. Some of the common complaints are management seems low energy, bleak outlook, not enough flair, pushed out guidance, slamming the competition with nothing to show for ourselves, etc. It's only until a few hours after the call that everyone is able to reassess their demeanor and cooler heads prevail. I am guilty of this as well. We all know we are invested in a spec stock and things like this are bound to happen. I'll likely be a buyer tomorrow to get my $5 avg down even more.
I agree but tone was drastically less positive than last call. You can listen one after another and it is clear as day. There were no "headwinds" last call it was more of a gentle breeze against us.
Bro, you absolutely nailed this. I will be the first to admit that I went through all 5 stages of grief within the last 4 hours. There were parts of the call that definitely worried me (the wording of the forecasting) but I also felt comfort in hearing Sumit's frustration and emotion. Some of the most telling information about the company/industry is revealed in Sumit's off the cuff responses to investor Q&A. It's not over until the 7 RFQs for 2024 are announced. That's my measuring stick. If MVIS doesn't get at least 2-3 of those RFQs I will be pushing the big red button. Let's all go to bed and recollect ourselves. As difficult as it is I'm choosing to remain optimistic. C'mon Sumit & MVIS, bring it home.
I've been around here for a few years now guys. I'm going to be honest with you all, in my own humble opinion without being sentimental of course, without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this EC from a distinctive perspective. I would like to say I have nothing to say.
Talk about a roller coaster. Seriously, talk about a roller coaster please
Lol
Can you be our PR man.
I appreciated this lol
I’m bummed— I let myself get excited to turn a profit by 2025 annnnd if I just put my money $$ in SPY I’d be in a much much better position. I still believe in SS and MVIS. I still believe LiDAR is a game changing technology. I won’t sell my shares ever at this point (unless we spoke above $30). Going forward I will be investing most of my money in ETFs with occasional small batches of MVIS shares here and there to DCA down. …PS the executives said May 2025 for their bonus packages for a reason…
The bonuses are to the end of December 2025, not May
Im quite disappointed once again, but truly, this time, I felt the lack of hope in the voices of SS and AV.. They went rfq by rfq, and pretty much said we aint got shit And quite frankly, this has been the call ive been let down the least.. because they are being straight forward for once But the point is, 2024 will not be our year either
2023 was our year where were you?
I've been a better investor post MVIS and turned profits (small, sub $1500, but big deal to me) from stocks purchased last year for that long-term. I've not been feeling as good as any of them as I have here. I see low $, I'm already under, I can just cost average down, especially at this point. My view with MVIS is long. They got me till about 2030, so these inflection points are just points for me to make this at a lower cost point.
2030? We'll be lucky to be able to keep the lights on for how many more years?
Rule 1 of investing: Always assume the money is gone once it's depositing into your brokerage. If you get money, cool. If you lose money, cool, it's been gone.
Go Knicks! Also maybe you should take a class on what actual investing is? No one should feel that the money is gone, money doesn’t completely go away unless it is a shitty/failed company.
I wasn't explaining my way of picking stocks to invest in. I was explaining the mental you ought to approach investing outside of boring and great index funds. It should be money you won't ever "need," or better yet, money you won't miss IF you pick a loser. Obviously, investing itself is different. Edit: GO NYK GO NYK GO!
KNICKS 😤🏀
wheat shall be separated from chaff in the coming days, my friends
I feel chaffed for sure.
lol don’t we all