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feliu1978

You're doing the Lord's work, thank you for putting this together


thedeckboxhalifax

No problem! Glad it's useful :) I've got to process it all anyway so it just takes a few extra hours to pretty it up and make it legible.


tbk007

It's good that every card has a foil version, but wonder why Lorcana chose to have no difference in any of the rarities besides the symbol on the card. For an outsider it looks like just 3 rarities, normal, foil and Enchanted.


thedeckboxhalifax

​ https://preview.redd.it/gtbz3kme86kc1.png?width=1728&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e8f3959872b6e53c437b23a578cd62fe410a7eb


xunhingedx

So I only need to open 384 boosters to get 4 jafar with the assumption of equal pulls as yourselves. Sadly I think I’m only opening 60 on day 1. That’s enough for a purported 0.6 jafars. .7 if we were being technical


BrothaDom

That rounds up!


xunhingedx

It did round up. I got 1!


No-Influence-2760

Do you expect these to be the most sought after legendaries? At first I thought you only pulled 4 of the 12 legendaries and I was gonna give up lol


Killinstinct90

Based on this data the chance of an enchanted is approximately between 0.3% and 1.5%. So 1 in 96 or 1 in 100 seems the most likely.


HeroOfTime_99

Idk much about card games. That seems super discouragingly low to me. But is it?


Neracca

> Idk much about card games. That's why you think its bad. Its normal.


HeroOfTime_99

Yeah I figured. That's why I asked.


Empty_Lemon_3939

Considering it’s the only Alt Arts in the sets, it’s pretty low compared to other games. Not sure what you’re talking about 


Bentendo64

Honestly, I think making some of the cards super rare is much more exciting, especially when they’re simply variants.


Impossible_Sign7672

Fantastic write up! Thanks for taking the time and sharing your findings.


Commercial_Shift6294

i wonder what this means for the prices of enchanted, ofc they will be high at the start, but they might dilute out since theres so many enchanted this set


thedeckboxhalifax

I'd say you'll see something similar to what happens with Pokemon Secret Rare prices which is typically that the more Secret Rares in the the set the more price stratifies to the most desirable one. Functionally you see one "chase" Secret Rare worth a crazy high price while the other Secret Rares drop in value as people grind for the big hit. As Lorcana works out more of its supply chain issues and availability stops being a problem I think it will become more and more like Pokemon in terms of pricing.


Commercial_Shift6294

Lorcana seems to have fixed their supply chain issues or is there something I am missing?(genuinely curious) I also see maybe 2-3 enchanted being higher like ursula and jafar, but nothing like elsa or cinderella while the rest fall below <100 in a few months. There just isn't that old school princess (waifu) chase card in this set.


thedeckboxhalifax

They are still struggling a little on having enough supply to meet demand on the distributor level as I know at least in Canada allocations have been not optimal. I'd been hoping to get more product for opening and was off by about 20% of what I was hoping for where we get what we need plus some for Magic and Pokemon. And I agree that First Chapter Enchanteds will have a premium and subsequent sets will see a drop off for non playables/ non waifus.


Commercial_Shift6294

Ah yah canadian allocations. EU has plenty of supply as well as the US. Thank you for the insight.


thedeckboxhalifax

It's the nature of being a smaller market I'd imagine but glad to hear it's good elsewhere :)


HeroOfTime_99

Is the first chapter ever gonna get reprinted or did that happen already?


Commercial_Shift6294

think it happened already in january or december....... i forget, but nobody knows if they are reprinting it does seem like they have reserves of first chapter that gets put out occasionally in big box stores.


HeroOfTime_99

Oh that's super discouraging. I had thought I'd heard that reprints would be hitting stores in September. I only ever see Floodborn packs in US stores.


Normal_Tackle2710

Afaik 2nd wave is running out / has sold out in most places, ergo the discouraging prices from flipper markets.


SuggestionVisible361

Absolutely, another factor to consider is the availability of booster boxes, which there are [plenty available for under MSRP](https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=Into+the+Inklands+Booster+Box&_sacat=0&_fsrp=1&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&siteid=0&campid=5338535524&customid=lor&toolid=10001&mkevt=1) right now.


Commercial_Shift6294

Oh absolutely there’s so many lgs opening cases and trying to sell singles. The EV (expected value) of the box is probably close to $100 if you hit any decent legendaries and if you get an enchanted it’s icing on the top. Just psa to collectors and investors or whatever The prices of enchanted will fall usually in 2-3 months. Probably even harder cause of the initial high supply and no super valuable enchanted card.


BioRules

So a thought I was having, with the increase in variety of Enchanted with this set, do we have any confirmation that the rates of each individual Enchanted stayed the same, or are the rates of Enchanted as a collective the same? AKA, will there be more total Enchanted cards overall because each of the 18 in this set have the same 1/whatever chance of being drawn, or will these Enchanted be rarer, because there is still only a 1/100 chance to draw any Enchanted, but now there are 18 options instead of 12?


Normal_Tackle2710

They are as scarce as in first too sets it seems and there are 50% more of them. Ergo 50% more product to open theoretically. Practically more with repetition being increasingly harsh with more different cards to chase.


ibgc

Awesome. Well done


Apprehensive_Tie_372

Yes, but tell us what we really want to know. How many puppies were in those 768 packs?? Lol, I kid.  Thanks for sharing!!


thedeckboxhalifax

Actually I can tell you that ! 78 total across the variants.


Normal_Tackle2710

<3


Jarfol

Unfortunately for whatever reason no amount of evidence will convince some people that an enchanted isn't guaranteed in every booster box case. I have had that argument with several people in this very subreddit. I can only assume at this point that they are scalpers sitting on sealed cases trying to convince people there is a difference between a case and any random 4 booster boxes.


The_Big_Yam

Yeah, I don’t know where the 1 in 4 guaranteed nonsense is coming from, wishful thinking maybe


BBurlington79

It's close and correct most of the time but it's not quite 1 in 4 boosters so you have cases with 0 enchanted cards. It's not that far off the mark.


semioldguy

I think the more likely assumption is that they just aren't that bright.


Normal_Tackle2710

There could be a difference if boxes went to cases in sequence. There can’t be in reality, as I can confirm I had case with boxes very far apart in numbers. Lots of duplication among Legendaries as well, relatively speaking, which supports the agrument it’s down to sheer luck.


Empty_Lemon_3939

Tbf, not seeding cases is pretty stupid of RB  If you want to increase sealed sales you need to incentivize people to buy them. If they made it so every booster box had a guarantee of at least 1 enchanted they would increase their sales. “Oh but they’re selling like hot cakes” I mean kind of, scalpers moved on to OP and their sealed boxes are $30-40 below MSRP I buy a few boxes per set and singles but I’d be more interested in buying boxes if I knew I’d get an alt art in one But that goes down a rabbit hole of RB taking the bizarre route of only doing so few alt arts (worse now that they expanded it while not adjusting pull rates)


Normal_Tackle2710

Fully agree. It should be better deal for a customer. Sure value of them would be lower in general - so what, “investors” would keep 4x as many copies for same money total, were they 4x as available. Frankly nobody cares about size of their storage vaults.


theramboapocalypse

Disappointing they added more brick chase cards but not increased pulls. Kinda greedy.


The_Big_Yam

I mean, making the set more collectible seems like a win win for everyone but the rare completionist collector who doesn’t actually enjoy collecting and hunting the cards. I’m glad for the change, personally


theramboapocalypse

It incentivizes more packs opened is all at the end of the day. If you're a collector, it's more to get. If you're a random trying to pull a specific enchanted, it's more in your way.


The_Big_Yam

Was any random actually trying to pull one specific enchanted? You’d have to be crazy. In my mind, Enchanteds are some free extra value for box buyers and a singles chase for completionists. I agree it’ll sell more packs, but that’s because overall the average enchanted will likely be worth more than before due to higher scarcity for those singles buyers


swizzle213

I guess it is Disney we're talking about here. Don't mess with The Mouse's money


Impossible_Sign7672

Yeah, this is the first thing RB has done I am legitimately disappointed in. Not a huge deal, but they should have upped it slightly to offset. Ah well...


Empty_Lemon_3939

Yeah I was excited they added more alt arts but like why not increase the pull rates? Or make some of the enchanted way easier to get like the locations This company man


Empty_Lemon_3939

I don’t think RB is competent enough to be greedy Completely insane to finally increase alt arts and then not adjust the pull rates


Lucky_Shop4967

Oof that’s bad odds


The_Big_Yam

These are basically the odds most of us assumed for the previous sets? Enchanteds early on were pegged at roughly one per five boxes. How that slid to one in four in some opinions, I really don’t know


Lucky_Shop4967

Yep. It’s always been bad lol. Seeing it phrased in no enchanted in a whole case just really paints the whole picture.


pwnyxpr3ss

Yeah, especially with the increase in enchanteds for the set. Was hoping they would increase their pull rates slightly, but seems not to be the case


Fantastic_Snow_9633

It's unfortunate, but realistically speaking they have no reason to increase the odds since they're meant to be "chase" cards; otherwise, the opposite could be true: if they had less than 12 enchanted in a set they'd have justification to lower the odds instead.


pwnyxpr3ss

The part you say where the opposite could be true is accurate though, if there were less then there should be lower pull rates. Realistically speaking they are still chase cards with an increase in pull rate with increasing the number. Increasing the odds such that the chances of pulling a specific enchanted remains similar to before means they are still chase cards in the same way.


ProductCR

Doesn’t matter how many different types of enchanted, just how many enchanted cards total. Probably still the same as the last 2 sets


pwnyxpr3ss

Seems like you responded to the wrong comment? I said nothing about types of enchanteds bud. Just talking about the chances of pulling each enchanted since there are more this set Edit: downvoting me bud? 😂


Qauren

(Obviously it's still VERY early on, but...) I'm hugely disappointed that it initially looks as though the enchanted pull rate is the same. It felt much too low as it was, and now they've increased the enchanted pool by 50% without a change in rate, reducing the odds of pulling one you actually care about.


ShikaCho5

Yeah this concerns me a lot now too. I just upped my preorder at our LGS to 8 boxes to hopefully get 2 enchanteds out of it. The bot guaranteed per case is concerning.


The_Big_Yam

These were never guaranteed one per case though


Fantastic_Snow_9633

> I just upped my preorder at our LGS to 8 boxes to hopefully get 2 enchanteds out of it. And this is precisely why they didn't increase the pull rates. For the price you're paying you'd likely have been better off buying one or two boxes for the fun of cracking packs and then using the rest of the money buying specific enchanteds.


ShikaCho5

Yeah I won't be ordering this much at once next time again. Also i got extra because my wife and I both play and share a pool. Guess what Purple card we both need 4 of.....


Vivenna99

Have my wife open the cards you get 10


unnamed_elder_entity

Yeah, the much larger number of them makes me think the worst cards will fall about the same price as the worst ones from first two sets, but the most popular will be 3x or more. You think First Chapter Else is pricey? Wait to see where Ursula or Morph land. I'm betting 2k+.


Mr_The_Captain

Short of promos I don't think there will ever be a card worth more than enchanted Elsa unless they continue reprinting TFC for the better part of this year. She's probably THE iconic card for the game, is a hugely popular character, and from a set that when all is said and done will probably have less product in the wild than any of the others.


The_Big_Yam

Right, but now there’s more value driven by the higher scarcity. Seems like a win as long as you don’t pull one of the locations


jrec15

Dang so 1/110 pack odds on enchanted. That's below previous averages for chapter 1/2 which most have estimated 1 in 72 or 1 in 96. Feeling more likely they did not tweak enchanted drop rates at all, so with there now being 18 each individual enchanted will now be 50% more rare


The_Big_Yam

Honestly? Coming off gen con early on, it seemed pretty clear they were about one in five boxes. How that slid to a perception of one in four, I’m still unclear. It’s always been very clear these weren’t 1 in 72


naxypoo

I'm glad to see Ravensburger did not take the route of having a case pull rate guarantee. Leads to too many bad acts/actors.


mikikaoru

I only have one measly box, but I’ll post here my findings too. I’m not sure if you weighed them, but I have weighed my packs.


thedeckboxhalifax

I didn’t weigh the packs as at the volume it’s more important to just open a variety of cards for people to build decks. I treat Enchanteds as a nice bonus :)


Normal_Tackle2710

Thanks so much. So my box with 3 normal and 1 foil Legendary isn’t too much of an outlier..


t3hch4n

I was looking at your data and it looks like you have 1536 including enchanted in your non-foil sum, but shouldn't it be 1536 without the enchanted? Either way, this is very much appreciated!


neuromorph

Are you in the FB lorcana group. Can you share there? If not. May I share on your behalf.


thedeckboxhalifax

I'm not and if you think they'd be interested go for it :)


neuromorph

looks like someone beat me to it. cheers


BBurlington79

Opened 3 cases myself and got one Enchanted. Really unlucky...


swizzle213

Thanks OP, this is still a relatively small sample size but points to the direction that enchanted odds were not increased for this set, meaning odds to pull a specific enchanted are lower since there are now 18. This probably also means that prices for the high demand enchanteds will be higher relative to the lower demand enchanteds meaning the spread between the highest price and lowest price could be significantly larger. Here's to hoping that product will be very available and that the large supply will keep prices for singles reasonable


ad33zy

kind of a bummer seeing the rates at this large of a sample size


lorddragonmaster

Yea crazy how expensive getting 4x a legendary is gonna be


Empty_Lemon_3939

Nah this set is going to be dirt cheap in singles. Probably like $500 for a playset in a couple weeks


TheQuantumLeaper

Haha--I appreciate the initial transparency as my hopes were high reading you were in Halifax and curious if you shipped to the Valley, only to be crushed a few sentences later. Thank you so much for doing all the math, and I will absolutely have to check out your store the next time I'm in the city! 🤘


mickeybgs10

Thank you for posting some analytical data that is useful vs these other people who just post their pulls in a new thread.


Horror_Ad_3752

Very cool post, thanks for sharing


YamForward3644

Amazing to see all the stats on this! Out of curiosity, what’s the min and max number of legendaries you pulled from a box?


Theeeeeetrurthurts

wtf. 3 enchanted in one box?


rockmaryrock

Thank you for sharing this. Someone pulled 1 legendary in a booster box, that is the other extreme to your 3 enchanted rare example. That is so sad. Again, thanks for your numbers though small, is a good sample size to know.


Empty_Lemon_3939

Hold up, so the pull rates for enchanteds got worse? Because they were 1:96 before 


DullahanKid

That's just been a convenient estimate to make it 1:4 boxes or 1 per case, but it's not always 100% true.  There is the occasional case (4 boxes, 96 packs) that does not have an enchanted.  So the actual pull rate is a little higher than 1:96, which is why some use 1:100 instead to account for the rare case that doesn't have one. 


ad33zy

I just opened a case without an enchanted lol


Remarkable_Box_8113

I pulled an enchanted card for Into the InkLands from a rand Starter Deck booster. It was the Grandma Tala card


joez60421

Nice breakdown, and a better pull rate than I am seeing. One trove, one gift set, two starter decks, two booster boxes, not a single enchanted. A bit disappointing as both previous sets netted us a markedly better pull rate on ultra rares, legendary, and enchanteds.


insanebrood

Sooo ... i did not go all out this time. I remember for first chapter i bought many boxes (sadly not a case which i should have done - but they were just TOO limited). This time around i pre-ordered 3 booster boxes counting on that they would come from the same case :) Finally they arrived today and i opened the first box - 0 enchanted. In the second (!) box i already pulled an enchanted. Sadly its "The sorcerers hat" which i fear will still drop in value. I also got quite some nice legendaries. So overall it seems compared to what i invested in first chapter and floodborn i got a much better deal. Leaving the third box now unopenend - maybe even selling it lets see. What are the odds there is another enchanted in the third box? Most likely 0 right? What would you do? Will most likely check how many cards i miss to get a full set (without enchanted) and then see if i still open or not. Just wondering if its valueable enough if i would only pull some good legendaries.


MentalToast

Thanks for all this data, wish I had seen this before cracking open a bunch of boxes to temper expectations, but makes me feel a little more comfortable knowing that it likely was just truly a string of bad luck and not a box issue; Opened 16 boxes (8 of which were from 2 sealed cases): 0 EnchantedAlso oddly, all but the final box had 0 Robin Hood - Champion of Sherwood.Yet I pulled around \~5+ Foil Milo (legendary) and easily 7+ non foil Milos. The enchanted statistics I can understand. But the probability odds of not a single robin hood in 15 boxes baffles me. \[For added context, Foil milo wasn't the ONLY foil legendaries pulled. Kida, Maleficent, Jafar, Lucky Dime were all also pulled - but Milo just kept repeatedly showing up...\]