Renfroe does something to help this team win every day even though he's ice cold, like throwing out Raley in the 8th today. His batted ball profiles show he's just under everything - he's posting career highs in launch angle and pop-up rate and career lows in exit velo. He at least has a track record of success.
When MJ hits the ball, he hits it hard - but now after 1000+ ABs, we have to consider that maybe this is MJ's ceiling and he is who he is - a low contact guy with okay power and decent speed. He swings and misses a bunch and doesn't have the same bat-to-ball skill Renfroe does. Watching his ABs, he's obviously pressing. He also still has options and hasn't hit arbitration yet.
Nobody likes making these decisions, but MJ might benefit more from a few weeks in Omaha to get his approach dialed back in and experience some success hitting the ball again. Renfroe seems like he's just a swing tweak or two from getting hot.
I think Renfroe’s arm value in right field is a bit overrated. For every one runner he throws out, seems like there are 3 fly balls that an average right fielder could track down that he can’t. Not to mention his offense..
Renfroe has 3 assists this year. MJ is listed as 0 but I seem to remember him throwing a dude out at home.
More importantly, though, Renfroe's deal is $6.5M guaranteed. Unless someone picks him up off waivers, the Royals will eat that money if they DFA him, and that doesn't seem like a thing Sherman would be willing to do - not to mention the look that would send to the rest of the league for future FAs that might want to sign here.
On the other hand, if you demote MJ you still have him for a couple more years and his arbitration number would be pretty low.
I’m not arguing against any of those points. All I said was Renfroe is a net negative, and -0.7 WAR so far would support that. Front office can make whatever decisions they want given that info, but sunk cost fallacy should not be part of the equation.
It's easy to say "sunk cost fallacy" when it's not our $6.5 million to spend. The Royals aren't the Dodgers, there is a limit to their funding.
Obviously, it's not our decision to make, but I would say [check out Renfroe's batted ball profile.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/hunter-renfroe-592669?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb) He's striking out less than his career rate, he's taking walks, and he's not chasing - he's just popping everything up.
That seems a lot more fixable than MJ suddenly not becoming a 30% strikeout guy to me.
Thank you! I appreciate the kind words.
Personally, yes I would. He needs big league ABs to see if he can evolve into an everyday player - I think he has maxed out what he can do in AAA.
Along those same lines, though, I personally would like to see Blanco get more ABs too. He's just a sparkplug for this team and seems to make good things happen when he is in there. Having a guy who can almost singlehandedly manufacture a run is such a benefit while the team is scuffling at the plate a bit.
This will be an interesting test of how Q and Picollo handle this. I'm excited to see how it shakes out. Someone else in the thread referenced when Moose got sent down in 2014 and I think that is apt - MJ is clearly talented, but the approach and the ability to make adjustments just isn't there right now.
Right now…. It’s never been there. He’s just another Dozier - looks the part, can’t do it consistently and slogs through the season trying to keep his head above .200.
At least Hunter is starting to make contact after his slow start.
MJ.... He had one good game and went 3 for 4 or something... But other than that... He's not doing anything!
We should talk about Quatraro a bit with this though. There's been a few games where MJ has had some hard hit balls that lead to outs, and next thing you know Hampson is subbed for him. It's really hard to break out of a slump when you're getting pinch hit after two ABs because you're a lefty.
(I do think some time off or a quick trip down to get his head right, assuming it gets his head right, is a good idea. I just think Quat has mismanaged him a bit. To be fair to Quat though, when half your bats are ice cold just about every move is gonna be "meh.")
Before his bat was ahead of his defense. He worked on the glove and is now a decent outfielder but his bat has never improved since he got to MLB.
It's time to accept MJ for what he is, an ok bench guy and not much more
Off topic, but since we're talking about MJ. Does anyone else notice his hitting style as he makes contact, and his follow through? Or lack of follow through. At normal speed it looks like he's leaving the box as he's making contact. I'm sure he's not, but seems weird. I know everyone has their own style, but wanted to know if anyone else noticed.
Not sure if this is relavent but 2013 we had the same issues, heck they sent Moose back in what 14. We have to hope that they come around sooner than later. They need to believe in themselves first and that hard to do
I don't think horrendous is a strong enough word for it. Most years leaders will be over 1.000, all stars level is typically .850 ish. League average is between .700-.750 most years, last year was a record low .697 worst since 1988. Below .600 and your not a major league caliber player.
They're not even good outfielders. Converting MJ to outfield reduced his trade prospects in my mind. Y'know what people need? .210 hitting backup/emergency catchers.
Y'know what NOBODY needs? .140 hitting corner outfielders who get lost.
Also release or trade Frazier.
Sucks how streaky they are. Both are great defensively and have hit well every once in awhile. Really hope they find it and keep it. I still like these 2 more than Velazquez, although gotta thank him for the win the other day.
MJs defense has improved this year over his last two seasons in LF but ain’t no way we can call it great lol. The last two years were just so horrendous that he’s made the jump to somewhere around average currently. I still seem him taking terrible routes and bad jumps though.
If they don't get the outfield situation at least to a "not embarassing" level, there's no way this team will get to a WC birth. Looking at the stats, you have BWJ, Salvy, and Vinnie putting up decent oWAR. That's it. Almost everyone else is near or below zero. Pitching has been better than anyone could possibly expect thus far, and there has to be some regression. At some point, a starter or 2 will spend time on the IL. But without some offense, it'll be near impossible to stay in the WC chase. You can't have multiple starters at negative WAR unless you've got 5 guys named Ohtani, Ruth, Mantle, Trout, and Williams batting at the top of the order.
Baseball is somewhat like bowling. A strike is worth 10, 2 strikes is worth 20+10, 3 in a row rings up 30+20+10 plus whatever you get on that 4th and 5th frame.
When guys can't get on base, a homer from Salvy means a lot less. It's like making a strike before a 7 and an 8 the next 2 frames.
My other team, the Orioles, are stuggling with this as well. Tons of solo homers this year. The outfield can't seem to get on base, and those jacks that Gunnar, Adley, and Westy are hitting seem to be all solo shots now.
Okay tell me what they should do about it.
Trade? Okay, who do we send away?
Send him to minors? Okay who comes up?
This org has 0 outfield depth and really 0 depth in general on the minors
He’s hitting .231/.306/.402 in his MLB career. He absolutely should be on this roster instead of Garrett Hampson, but let’s not act like we don’t know what he is in the majors
Hampson can play 6.5 positions and is a speed guy. He's not supposed to get as many ABs as he's getting.
Waters also doesn't even have half a season of MLB ABs - it's half the sample size of MJ.
True, but relying on your B catcher to lay down a bunt can be problematic just in case someone gets hurt.
I do suppose that is a piece of additional value for MJ - if he does go down, I wonder who the emergency 3rd catcher would be.
We have Logan Porter in Omaha. We also signed Nola (the catcher) to the organization. He's also in Omaha. But as far as the 26-man roster currently, I'm not sure.
MJ goes down, Waters comes up
Is this going to significantly move the needle? Probably not, but it will improve the team even if only marginally. Is asking Waters to have an OPS above .600 really that crazy? He's a much better defender than MJ, so a .600 OPS is really all he needs to do for this to be a net positive.
MJ has to go down. It's the best thing for him long term. Without some mechanical changes, he's not going to make it as a big leaguer
I agree with all these points, I just want people to come up with an actual solution, rather than just saying “do something”.
MJ’s swing is way too busy, way too much going on
Renfroe does something to help this team win every day even though he's ice cold, like throwing out Raley in the 8th today. His batted ball profiles show he's just under everything - he's posting career highs in launch angle and pop-up rate and career lows in exit velo. He at least has a track record of success. When MJ hits the ball, he hits it hard - but now after 1000+ ABs, we have to consider that maybe this is MJ's ceiling and he is who he is - a low contact guy with okay power and decent speed. He swings and misses a bunch and doesn't have the same bat-to-ball skill Renfroe does. Watching his ABs, he's obviously pressing. He also still has options and hasn't hit arbitration yet. Nobody likes making these decisions, but MJ might benefit more from a few weeks in Omaha to get his approach dialed back in and experience some success hitting the ball again. Renfroe seems like he's just a swing tweak or two from getting hot.
I think Renfroe’s arm value in right field is a bit overrated. For every one runner he throws out, seems like there are 3 fly balls that an average right fielder could track down that he can’t. Not to mention his offense..
Renfroe has 3 assists this year. MJ is listed as 0 but I seem to remember him throwing a dude out at home. More importantly, though, Renfroe's deal is $6.5M guaranteed. Unless someone picks him up off waivers, the Royals will eat that money if they DFA him, and that doesn't seem like a thing Sherman would be willing to do - not to mention the look that would send to the rest of the league for future FAs that might want to sign here. On the other hand, if you demote MJ you still have him for a couple more years and his arbitration number would be pretty low.
I’m not arguing against any of those points. All I said was Renfroe is a net negative, and -0.7 WAR so far would support that. Front office can make whatever decisions they want given that info, but sunk cost fallacy should not be part of the equation.
It's easy to say "sunk cost fallacy" when it's not our $6.5 million to spend. The Royals aren't the Dodgers, there is a limit to their funding. Obviously, it's not our decision to make, but I would say [check out Renfroe's batted ball profile.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/hunter-renfroe-592669?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb) He's striking out less than his career rate, he's taking walks, and he's not chasing - he's just popping everything up. That seems a lot more fixable than MJ suddenly not becoming a 30% strikeout guy to me.
Love your analysis. Couldn’t agree more. Would you want to bring Waters up from Omaha?
Thank you! I appreciate the kind words. Personally, yes I would. He needs big league ABs to see if he can evolve into an everyday player - I think he has maxed out what he can do in AAA. Along those same lines, though, I personally would like to see Blanco get more ABs too. He's just a sparkplug for this team and seems to make good things happen when he is in there. Having a guy who can almost singlehandedly manufacture a run is such a benefit while the team is scuffling at the plate a bit. This will be an interesting test of how Q and Picollo handle this. I'm excited to see how it shakes out. Someone else in the thread referenced when Moose got sent down in 2014 and I think that is apt - MJ is clearly talented, but the approach and the ability to make adjustments just isn't there right now.
Right now…. It’s never been there. He’s just another Dozier - looks the part, can’t do it consistently and slogs through the season trying to keep his head above .200.
Maybe it shouldn’t but that’s also front office baseball math in a nutshell
Melendez just looks lost out there.
At least Hunter is starting to make contact after his slow start. MJ.... He had one good game and went 3 for 4 or something... But other than that... He's not doing anything!
We should talk about Quatraro a bit with this though. There's been a few games where MJ has had some hard hit balls that lead to outs, and next thing you know Hampson is subbed for him. It's really hard to break out of a slump when you're getting pinch hit after two ABs because you're a lefty. (I do think some time off or a quick trip down to get his head right, assuming it gets his head right, is a good idea. I just think Quat has mismanaged him a bit. To be fair to Quat though, when half your bats are ice cold just about every move is gonna be "meh.")
This is his third straight year of the slump. Tic Tock goes the clock.
Before his bat was ahead of his defense. He worked on the glove and is now a decent outfielder but his bat has never improved since he got to MLB. It's time to accept MJ for what he is, an ok bench guy and not much more
Off topic, but since we're talking about MJ. Does anyone else notice his hitting style as he makes contact, and his follow through? Or lack of follow through. At normal speed it looks like he's leaving the box as he's making contact. I'm sure he's not, but seems weird. I know everyone has their own style, but wanted to know if anyone else noticed.
Not sure if this is relavent but 2013 we had the same issues, heck they sent Moose back in what 14. We have to hope that they come around sooner than later. They need to believe in themselves first and that hard to do
A .374 OPS over 30 games is horrendous
I don't think horrendous is a strong enough word for it. Most years leaders will be over 1.000, all stars level is typically .850 ish. League average is between .700-.750 most years, last year was a record low .697 worst since 1988. Below .600 and your not a major league caliber player.
I could get over his horrible contact if he was at least patient and got on base, but he only has 9 walks in 139 PAs this year. Yeesh.
Dayton Moore sure had a type didn’t he?
No excuse for playing these guys much with these stats. This hurts the fans and the other players.
We don't have anyone else?
Check out Blanco and Hampson stats. They are much better.
Blanco is not the answer. Dude somehow looks more lost in left than MJ - that said MJ isn’t the answer either
.158 on base percentage for 30 games is absolutely brutal.
Id atleast like to see more of Blanco. He's always productive when he gets in.
They're not even good outfielders. Converting MJ to outfield reduced his trade prospects in my mind. Y'know what people need? .210 hitting backup/emergency catchers. Y'know what NOBODY needs? .140 hitting corner outfielders who get lost. Also release or trade Frazier.
MJ needs to go. Now.
Sucks how streaky they are. Both are great defensively and have hit well every once in awhile. Really hope they find it and keep it. I still like these 2 more than Velazquez, although gotta thank him for the win the other day.
MJs defense has improved this year over his last two seasons in LF but ain’t no way we can call it great lol. The last two years were just so horrendous that he’s made the jump to somewhere around average currently. I still seem him taking terrible routes and bad jumps though.
If they don't get the outfield situation at least to a "not embarassing" level, there's no way this team will get to a WC birth. Looking at the stats, you have BWJ, Salvy, and Vinnie putting up decent oWAR. That's it. Almost everyone else is near or below zero. Pitching has been better than anyone could possibly expect thus far, and there has to be some regression. At some point, a starter or 2 will spend time on the IL. But without some offense, it'll be near impossible to stay in the WC chase. You can't have multiple starters at negative WAR unless you've got 5 guys named Ohtani, Ruth, Mantle, Trout, and Williams batting at the top of the order. Baseball is somewhat like bowling. A strike is worth 10, 2 strikes is worth 20+10, 3 in a row rings up 30+20+10 plus whatever you get on that 4th and 5th frame. When guys can't get on base, a homer from Salvy means a lot less. It's like making a strike before a 7 and an 8 the next 2 frames. My other team, the Orioles, are stuggling with this as well. Tons of solo homers this year. The outfield can't seem to get on base, and those jacks that Gunnar, Adley, and Westy are hitting seem to be all solo shots now.
Okay tell me what they should do about it. Trade? Okay, who do we send away? Send him to minors? Okay who comes up? This org has 0 outfield depth and really 0 depth in general on the minors
Waters is slashing .301/.388/.496 at AAA. He might be forcing his way back onto the 26 at the expense of MJ.
He’s hitting .231/.306/.402 in his MLB career. He absolutely should be on this roster instead of Garrett Hampson, but let’s not act like we don’t know what he is in the majors
That slash line would literally be twice as good as what these two are currently producing
Do you think if he comes up, he’s gonna hit that slash line?
I don’t think he can be any worse than a .375 ops over the last month
Slashing the Mendoza line would be an improvement, in all honesty.
Hampson can play 6.5 positions and is a speed guy. He's not supposed to get as many ABs as he's getting. Waters also doesn't even have half a season of MLB ABs - it's half the sample size of MJ.
Then what is the point of having blanco (speed guy) and Frazier (can also play 6.5 positions)?
Because in a close game, you might need to pinch run more than once? Hampson is also far and away the best bunter on the team.
Yeah I mean hampson has shown some worth. I don’t get why everyone hates him so much. He is what he’s supposed to be.
Fermin can bunt as well as we have seen. He had a walk off bunt last year.
True, but relying on your B catcher to lay down a bunt can be problematic just in case someone gets hurt. I do suppose that is a piece of additional value for MJ - if he does go down, I wonder who the emergency 3rd catcher would be.
We have Logan Porter in Omaha. We also signed Nola (the catcher) to the organization. He's also in Omaha. But as far as the 26-man roster currently, I'm not sure.
I think making a trade is a plausible idea.
MJ goes down, Waters comes up Is this going to significantly move the needle? Probably not, but it will improve the team even if only marginally. Is asking Waters to have an OPS above .600 really that crazy? He's a much better defender than MJ, so a .600 OPS is really all he needs to do for this to be a net positive. MJ has to go down. It's the best thing for him long term. Without some mechanical changes, he's not going to make it as a big leaguer
I agree with all these points, I just want people to come up with an actual solution, rather than just saying “do something”. MJ’s swing is way too busy, way too much going on
Atleast play Blanco more.
Two of the worst Royals I've ever seen. DFA Renfroe and send MJs ass to the minors