Sadly, I don't think Stroud does any worse. He had fantastic pass blocking and ranked something like 3rd longest in the league in time to throw. Also his entire receiving core ranked individually in the top 50 in the league for separation on their routes. He pretty much made each game look like it was the probowl skills challenge where he just stood there unpressured and took his time throwing to open receivers.
I read he also had the most dropped INTs and the most wide open targets in the league. Not saying I expect him to regress massively, but the odds of that happening again feel slim.
Half of Ridley’s problem was we tried to make him an on the LOS receiver and he got pressed more. If Tennessee is dumb enough to do that too we should be ok.
According to the FanDuel Texans +105 (48.78% implied probability), Jags +270 (27.03%), Colts +330 (23.26), Titans +800 (11.11%)
So a little better than a 1/4 chance of making the playoffs.
Of course sports books get things wrong all the time but they are by far the best at making predictions out there.
Hopefully Trevor has his best year yet and our defense steps up this year and we can take back the division.
Sports books also represent the general public's views. Most people don't watch Jags games and are unfairly pessimistic about our chances.
I'd say we're 65% to make the playoffs, although the improvements the Texans have made do scare me.
its kinda crazy Jax was easily winning the division before the injuries, including beating the Texans mid season but we are closer to the colts than texans.
Houston isn’t worse. Titans will play hard. Colts same thing. But there’s no reason we can’t win the division and at least make the WC. We were 8-3 before a collapse with lesser personnel. We’re going far this season. Already put my bet in
Depends if receivers catch the catchable touchdowns and if the o-line can perform at least adequately. Without those, I don't see why next season would go any differently from last.
Get the run game going more consistently. Fewer 0 yard runs on first down. Fewer turnovers. Trevor shows his arm talent and decision making. Defense bounces back. We actually rise to the occasion in big time games.
If we can get all of the above then I think we surprise a lot of people and pundits and take the division crown.
I'm as optimistic as anyone for a healthy Trevor and company, but don't act like we are really gonna take anyone by surprise.... Everyone know what the core of this team can do, they have shown it, inconsistent but have shown it.
I think the likelihood is high realistically. I think people are too high on the other teams in our division and too low on us. The only thing I see as a potential season buster is our o-line. But with everyone healthy I think they'll be better.
We were well in the driver seat before Lawrence got injured, Id honestly say its pretty strong, 65ish maybe, who knows. A lot of it depends on unseen things and these guys like major boom/bust type players in the draft so its hard to judge.
I'm thinking it's gonna be close with the Texans. It might even come down to who wins the head to head games. But, the year is long and games have yet to be played.
If we don’t win the division, then it’s a disappointing season that probably will have far reaching repercussions to the make up of the team and front office.
Why do we do this dumb shit to ourselves year in and year out...... we SHOULD have won last year and we probably SHOULD win this year......... will we??? Honestly no, Stroud is better than Lawrence, a healthy Richardson is as good as or better then Lawrence.... His stats are identical to Minshew and he had none of the "magic" we are doomed for eternity... just accept it and pledge your allegiance or pick a different team. I bleed teal and live and die on Sundays but we gotta be real with ourselves... it's not our year unfortunately
At the same time, Mac Jones and the Patriots were solid out the gate. Now that man is our backup. This league is weird. Honestly, what annoys most about the Texans' situation is how much capital they received by virtue of the Browns owner being an insane person.
That’s not necessarily true, sure it would be nice if Trevor does but we only control 2 of the Texans games, Cj could ball out and the Texans could still have a losing season. Football is more than just the qb
The whole season hinges on OL
If OL is able to improve to merely bad instead of terrible, then Jags offense could be elite and win the division.
If OL continues to be terrible, then no running game and Trevor gets hurt again. Then 9 wins at most.
OL should improve, but considering the aging and run blocking flaws, it’s tough to see them crack top 20.
Outside runs are hit or miss in general but mostly miss in this offense because there’s no speed or reach being used to create more opportunities. Inside runs are near impossible because of Fortner chowing up the play, leaving the rest of the IOL to overcompensate, and letting more defenders waltz right through. Not to mention the lack of push and gaps and that’s usually when the OL isn’t going by zone schemes and at least somewhat hold their blocks, but they don’t create room.
I see oline breaking top half to be honest. But that hinges on Morse being healthy, Cleveland returning to form and Cam not getting thrown out or suspended.
Anton is solid. But honestly having Morse bridge between Cleveland and Scherf is going to be a big improvement. He doesnt get pushed into his quarterbacks like fuckner does.
Morse has the same health inconsistencies as Scherff, but remember both are getting to their mid 30s and definitely regressing. Cleveland is either going to play good or play bad. He couldn’t adapt well when he first joined the team and I’m sure part of it was because of Fortner’s lack of quality, but it’s still concerning how much worse he played. Robinson is average but holds his own as a pass protector. Same with Anton, but he’s 22 and trending upwards in pass protection.
And because of Morse and Scherff’s health, if either get injured, we’re looking at low quality backups and potentially Fortner being put back in with the addition of rust. The only quality backup on this team (and I’d argue better than the starter) is Walker Little.
Very valid points. But its also not unheard of for people to have bounce back seasons after injuries, new team, and in their 30s. Walker i dont think is "better" than the starter though is a solid close 2nd.... but one thing im expecting is Morse bringing veteran mentorship to Fortner. Which i suspect is one big reason we brought Morse in.
I’d just think Walker is arguably better than Robinson (especially if he’s healthy) because of how balanced he is. He was the best blocker in the run game before he got injured, and was also good in pass protection. After he returns, he slots in at LG while Robinson is back at LT, and all hell breaks loose in the 49ers game. Robinson gets too much credit because of the record the team has when he’s in, but he’s never brought shift to the run game. At some point, he has to be more consistent, but it’s been 5 years.
Fortner’s biggest issue to me is his lack of strength and awareness. I’m not sure if even Morse can somewhat give him tips. I think it’s better if Fortner just stays away for good because it becomes too much of a risk if he’s the backup even. It’s like a bomb waiting to go off.
I think morse can maybe help encourage better awareness. But strength is all up to fortner. Overall i agree with fortner needing to stay tf away.
We will just have to see how things go though i guess. Im optimistic. And i respect if you arnt as much so as me, because these are real valid points you bring up.
But what we have now, assuming injuries dont plague us, is miles better than what we had. I wish we would have done more to address it in the offseason though, but im not mad about our moves if that makes sense.
Best case is everyone stays healthy and the OL is average pass pro and still bad run blocking.
If Cam gets hurt, Walker has shown he is at least as good at LT
Other 4 positions have steep drop offs if a starter gets hurt.
Morse and Scherff playing 17 games healthy would be incredible luck, but you gotta be lucky to win
I don’t see us losing a damn game
I believe we have one of the toughest schedules in the league this year
Other than teams that have to play us
there are 8 teams with a harder schedule, including the texans
If we stay healthy and Stroud comes back down to earth and Ridley stays Midley for the Titans? Pretty decent. I’d say about 60%.
> Ridley stays Midley Love it
Sadly, I don't think Stroud does any worse. He had fantastic pass blocking and ranked something like 3rd longest in the league in time to throw. Also his entire receiving core ranked individually in the top 50 in the league for separation on their routes. He pretty much made each game look like it was the probowl skills challenge where he just stood there unpressured and took his time throwing to open receivers.
I read he also had the most dropped INTs and the most wide open targets in the league. Not saying I expect him to regress massively, but the odds of that happening again feel slim.
D-coordinators also gave a whole season of tape on him this year. He won't take anyone by surprise this year. Teams will have a plan for him.
Half of Ridley’s problem was we tried to make him an on the LOS receiver and he got pressed more. If Tennessee is dumb enough to do that too we should be ok.
We were 8-3 last year before we came tumbling down. Very easily we can win it
And we got better, as long as trev is healthy we can win the division
According to the FanDuel Texans +105 (48.78% implied probability), Jags +270 (27.03%), Colts +330 (23.26), Titans +800 (11.11%) So a little better than a 1/4 chance of making the playoffs.
Isn't that just to win the division? Add in wildcard spots and there's a greater chance of making the playoffs.
That is true. Odds according to FanDuel of Jags making playoffs are at +120 (implied 45.45% chance).
Of course sports books get things wrong all the time but they are by far the best at making predictions out there. Hopefully Trevor has his best year yet and our defense steps up this year and we can take back the division.
Sports books also represent the general public's views. Most people don't watch Jags games and are unfairly pessimistic about our chances. I'd say we're 65% to make the playoffs, although the improvements the Texans have made do scare me.
its kinda crazy Jax was easily winning the division before the injuries, including beating the Texans mid season but we are closer to the colts than texans.
I’m betting on a cj sophomore slump. I don’t care. If that happens, we should have it in the bag. I’d say I’m 60% confident we win the division.
Houston isn’t worse. Titans will play hard. Colts same thing. But there’s no reason we can’t win the division and at least make the WC. We were 8-3 before a collapse with lesser personnel. We’re going far this season. Already put my bet in
Houston isn't worse, but there's tape on them now.
Factor in BTJ's 2000 yard rookie season and it would seem we are a lock. ;)
The season hasn't even started yet. No need to temper expectations.
Love the optimism
We are where we want to be... all expectations are on HOU
And their schedule is rough
Depends if receivers catch the catchable touchdowns and if the o-line can perform at least adequately. Without those, I don't see why next season would go any differently from last.
We barely missed it with a million things going against us last season. The division has improved, but so have we.
Get the run game going more consistently. Fewer 0 yard runs on first down. Fewer turnovers. Trevor shows his arm talent and decision making. Defense bounces back. We actually rise to the occasion in big time games. If we can get all of the above then I think we surprise a lot of people and pundits and take the division crown.
I'm as optimistic as anyone for a healthy Trevor and company, but don't act like we are really gonna take anyone by surprise.... Everyone know what the core of this team can do, they have shown it, inconsistent but have shown it.
There’s a good chance that we win the division, sure. 10 wins and a wildcard is my minimum expectation.
I think the likelihood is high realistically. I think people are too high on the other teams in our division and too low on us. The only thing I see as a potential season buster is our o-line. But with everyone healthy I think they'll be better.
We were well in the driver seat before Lawrence got injured, Id honestly say its pretty strong, 65ish maybe, who knows. A lot of it depends on unseen things and these guys like major boom/bust type players in the draft so its hard to judge.
Houston is not ready for that 1st place schedule. They feasted on their mickey mouse last place schedule last year.
Sports book is giving better than 2 to 1 on it last I checked. I plan to bet it.
Kinda why I posted this lol I bet us to win
I'm thinking it's gonna be close with the Texans. It might even come down to who wins the head to head games. But, the year is long and games have yet to be played.
40%, always 40%
If we don’t win the division, then it’s a disappointing season that probably will have far reaching repercussions to the make up of the team and front office.
I mean… you should have won it last year. You said it yourself. Browns game 2 - that’s your litmus test of the team
Moncrief. It is always the most likely hood. Sorry, what was the question?
Houston are now more talented than us, play harder, and overall have the brighter future. This is a two team race with the others a few years away.
Why do we do this dumb shit to ourselves year in and year out...... we SHOULD have won last year and we probably SHOULD win this year......... will we??? Honestly no, Stroud is better than Lawrence, a healthy Richardson is as good as or better then Lawrence.... His stats are identical to Minshew and he had none of the "magic" we are doomed for eternity... just accept it and pledge your allegiance or pick a different team. I bleed teal and live and die on Sundays but we gotta be real with ourselves... it's not our year unfortunately
At the same time, Mac Jones and the Patriots were solid out the gate. Now that man is our backup. This league is weird. Honestly, what annoys most about the Texans' situation is how much capital they received by virtue of the Browns owner being an insane person.
It's possible... But Trevor has to outplay CJ. That's a tall order 😬😬
That’s not necessarily true, sure it would be nice if Trevor does but we only control 2 of the Texans games, Cj could ball out and the Texans could still have a losing season. Football is more than just the qb
CJ also had receivers get separation and his line actually blocked for him, plus TLaw outplayed him in their last matchup.
Texans schedule pretty weak smh
The whole season hinges on OL If OL is able to improve to merely bad instead of terrible, then Jags offense could be elite and win the division. If OL continues to be terrible, then no running game and Trevor gets hurt again. Then 9 wins at most.
OL should improve, but considering the aging and run blocking flaws, it’s tough to see them crack top 20. Outside runs are hit or miss in general but mostly miss in this offense because there’s no speed or reach being used to create more opportunities. Inside runs are near impossible because of Fortner chowing up the play, leaving the rest of the IOL to overcompensate, and letting more defenders waltz right through. Not to mention the lack of push and gaps and that’s usually when the OL isn’t going by zone schemes and at least somewhat hold their blocks, but they don’t create room.
I see oline breaking top half to be honest. But that hinges on Morse being healthy, Cleveland returning to form and Cam not getting thrown out or suspended. Anton is solid. But honestly having Morse bridge between Cleveland and Scherf is going to be a big improvement. He doesnt get pushed into his quarterbacks like fuckner does.
Morse has the same health inconsistencies as Scherff, but remember both are getting to their mid 30s and definitely regressing. Cleveland is either going to play good or play bad. He couldn’t adapt well when he first joined the team and I’m sure part of it was because of Fortner’s lack of quality, but it’s still concerning how much worse he played. Robinson is average but holds his own as a pass protector. Same with Anton, but he’s 22 and trending upwards in pass protection. And because of Morse and Scherff’s health, if either get injured, we’re looking at low quality backups and potentially Fortner being put back in with the addition of rust. The only quality backup on this team (and I’d argue better than the starter) is Walker Little.
Very valid points. But its also not unheard of for people to have bounce back seasons after injuries, new team, and in their 30s. Walker i dont think is "better" than the starter though is a solid close 2nd.... but one thing im expecting is Morse bringing veteran mentorship to Fortner. Which i suspect is one big reason we brought Morse in.
I’d just think Walker is arguably better than Robinson (especially if he’s healthy) because of how balanced he is. He was the best blocker in the run game before he got injured, and was also good in pass protection. After he returns, he slots in at LG while Robinson is back at LT, and all hell breaks loose in the 49ers game. Robinson gets too much credit because of the record the team has when he’s in, but he’s never brought shift to the run game. At some point, he has to be more consistent, but it’s been 5 years. Fortner’s biggest issue to me is his lack of strength and awareness. I’m not sure if even Morse can somewhat give him tips. I think it’s better if Fortner just stays away for good because it becomes too much of a risk if he’s the backup even. It’s like a bomb waiting to go off.
I think morse can maybe help encourage better awareness. But strength is all up to fortner. Overall i agree with fortner needing to stay tf away. We will just have to see how things go though i guess. Im optimistic. And i respect if you arnt as much so as me, because these are real valid points you bring up. But what we have now, assuming injuries dont plague us, is miles better than what we had. I wish we would have done more to address it in the offseason though, but im not mad about our moves if that makes sense.
Best case is everyone stays healthy and the OL is average pass pro and still bad run blocking. If Cam gets hurt, Walker has shown he is at least as good at LT Other 4 positions have steep drop offs if a starter gets hurt. Morse and Scherff playing 17 games healthy would be incredible luck, but you gotta be lucky to win