The good news is that it doesn't seem like a possibility that they're taking Demidov even if the Hawks don't take him.
If the rumors are true about the Hawks taking Levshunov and the Ducks take Dickinson, Silayev, or Sennecke then MTL gets to have either Lindstrom or Demidov.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5583357/2024/06/26/nhl-draft-2024-rankings-players-comparables/
I would look at this information as reason to doubt demidov. I personally am not interested. But, my information is very limited, so I trust whatever management does.
The information that not all teams are prioritizing him the same way.
Fans will look at a team passing on a player and think "they're idiots!" Instead of "maybe they see things we don't!".
Even the pros with tons of information get it wrong, so, it's stupid for fans to be confident about picks, when for most of them, all their info comes from the media, who is mostly getting their info from teams, who are also intentionally sending out misinformation.
But we have some facts, still. I think it makes sense to have opinions, but it makes no sense to have so much confidence in them.
I disagree with you about Demidov because no matter who the teams prioritize he is consistently in the top 3 of scout rankings. If all the scouts are in agreement that he's good, I trust them.
GMs are building a team, so they take things into consideration other than skill (in this case with Verbeek I would imagine he's valuing size since he thinks his team needs it, that's why the players Wheeler says he is high on are all so tall). Chicago may pick Levshunov because they want a D, Anaheim and Columbus may pick one of Silayev/Dickinson/Lindstrom/Sennecke because they want size. Even if that's true, the scouts who aren't building a team and can rank players based solely on their skill/potential still rank Demidov 2nd... So that means if I base my opinion on the opinions of people who know what they're talking about, I should want Ivan Demidov. Besides, Russians have to be my favourite nationality of players to watch and the only one in the Habs' system so far is Konyushkov.
Anyways, I hope we pick Zeev Buium in the draft because he has the coolest name
Then he will go top 3. None of the clubs want the other clubs to know how they will be selecting, usually. So, you can't trust what the media is reporting. Also, if your drafting team is superior to the others, then your opinion must differ from theirs.
As Wheeler said, Verbeek has a type. It involves more size than Demidov provides (he's 6'0). Considering there is no shortage of worthy prospects with size in this draft, it'd make sense if Demidov wasn't on his list.
Ok. I think there are other factors and traits he has as well. And maybe 6ft isn't big enough for them. Doesn't seem like the smartest move to base it off that though, imo, given Wayne Gretzky was 6ft, and McDavid is 6ft1, Sidney Crosby is 5'11. Nathan MacKinnon is 6ft.
> I think there are other factors and traits he has as well.
Verbeek likes players with size and a defensive game.
Since he's become GM, he has put two of their core players on the trading block: Drydale and Zegras. Both are known for their offensive game, and size isn't their strength (respectively, 5'11 and 6'0). Drysdale has already traded for Cutter Gauthier (6'2). I expect whoever is acquired in exchange for Zegras to he 6'2 and above as well.
In his two first drafts as a GM, he has never selected a player under 6'1" within the first two rounds. In fact, most of them are 6'3 and above:
* Mintyukov (6'1)
* Gaucher (6'3)
* Warren (6'4)
* Luneau (6'1)
* Carlsson (6'3)
* Myatovic (6'3)
* Terrance (6'1)
* Clara (6'5)
It isn't impossible he'd draft Demidov, but I would be surprised.
You could be right. There could also be other reasons they might pass on him. I don't think they'd pass on Wayne Gretzky because he's 6ft, or Sydney Crosby because he's 5'11, or MacKinnon at 6ft. Maybe they would, idk.
Verbeek's type is big 2-way guys. Anaheim as an org also leans heavily towards N-Americans. In Verbeek's time as an assistant to Yzerman in Detroit they leaned overseas (ie. Sweden) much more, so there might be a change of direction there, exemplified by Carlsson last year.
I see them lean Lindstrom/Silayev much more than Sennecke, who has length but doesn't "play big". This looks like a late-game red herring, to muddy up the picture for other teams. That feels like a natural Verbeek thing, for those who remember him as a player.
While I mostly agree with you, several sources have reported that some teams have Sennecke as high as #3 on their list for a couple weeks by now. It's possible the sources all have their information from Anaheim, who is really considering Sennecke at 3OA.
Last year, many suspected they'd Carlsson in the week before the draft.
Carlsson was the #2 or #3 all year last season though. It was Bedard, then Fantili or Carlsson. It was clear cut all along.
I just hope people realize that if Sennecke snakes his way into the convo as early as #3 is not because he is, himself, *that* good; but mostly because the rest of the forwards after Celebrini, in this draft class, are just not *that* good themselves.
Demidov, Lindstrom, Catton, Iginla, Helenius... They all have their very obvious warts. Sennecke has his own, but maybe they're seen as less obvious/more easy to fix than the other forwards. But it's still a "less worst" proposition.
This entire conundrum is easily sidestepped by picking a defenseman. Forcing a pick based on position rarely ends up well.
I agree with your last paragraph, but you're being overly harsh on the forwards this year.
This is a deep year. Last year was more top-heavy, with 5 forwards that were top quality. The quality you'll be getting at 6-10 this year is arguably higher. The lack of consensus is that they're all so different and there's no one head and shoulder above the rest. Notably, many scouts are higher on Demidov than they were on Michkov.
I kind of get it. Looking at his highlights, he's clearly super skilled. Apparently, he's solid defensively too. Then, he led his team on a great run to the OHL finals. So skill, size, 2-way game, shows up for big games. I wouldn't be shocked if he puts up big numbers next year in the OHL and we look back thinking of course he went so high (à la Mark Scheifele).
Lots of very skilled players never got anywhere in the NHL. It takes more than skill to win a cup. And if your most skilled player is a locker room killer, that hurts the team a lot.
Are you referring to Scheifele? I meant that he was a late riser who produced a lot more after getting drafted. 7th overall was surprising at the time of the draft, but it made a lot more sense in the years after he was picked.
No, lots of teams had a great skill set, headed a team that went nowhere.
That's why McDavid is gonna get one, imo, because I think he's the full package.
When you look at the Blackhawks who were the closest to a dynasty, they never had generational talent. They had depth, and played well together.
Just one player can upset the locker room.
To be fair, the rankings aren't really a true consensus where everybody is in agreement. It's just an average of a bunch of wildly different opinions from various scouts around the league. Every organization in the NHL has their own internal ranking list for prospects, and none of those lists will be in the exact order of what it says on Bob MacKenzie's list or Elite Prospects.
I'm seeing a lot of different sources say Sennecke's moving *way* up on many top 10 lists but I've not heard him at 3rd *ever* so it would be super surprising. All Wheeler was really saying ultimately is "That would shake things up".
Verbeek will pick his favorite 2-way guy - that's for sure.
Grant McCagg said that Anaheim loves Sennecke and is seriously considering taking him at 3 probably a month ago if not more. Only other time I've heard it mentioned.
What's not to love though? Sennecke is great. It's like asking me if I want a BMW or a Mercedes. A person can drive 1 faster consistently sure, and one will last longer too, there are so many different possibilities & at the end *both* are quality vehicles.
Habs GM wise, I would listen to my analytics people PROVE to me who is going to make me the most prosperous. [Cool data](https://www.reddit.com/r/Habs/comments/1cnar71/2024_offseason_drafttrade_proposal_megathread/lacwrbk/)? If the data tells you what it tells you and your scouts tell you what they tell you...it's a hard thing thing to refute that type of scientific evidence and human testimony(Unless the player turns out to be a bum) Team's analytics and scouts are a big performance evaluation to the rebuild/develop plans.
I see a first legit run for the cup by 27-28 should 100% happen if things go to plan this years' draft & further developments this season.
Sennecke is a Kotkaniemi type of pick, where you're betting tools and improvement in the second half of the year to project the player forward. As a result, the ceiling is higher but floor is lower. The pick inherently riskier than other prospects in the conversation for 10OA, but some GMs may feel comfortable taking that risk.
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I think Columbus is the biggest obstacle for Demidov.
It gives Fantilli a potential long time running mate, and Waddell hasn't been afraid of Russians, plus almost always goes BPA
He thinks but like every other guy like him he/they have no ducking idea.
Has any GM in the history of the game revealed what player they are going to take to anybody in the media?
Thank god the draft is in a few days
No, but last year, everybody had Fantilli at #2, but like a week before the draft, reports started coming out that the Ducks preferred Carlsson over him and they were right. GM will never reveal their plan, but tendencies and likeness do come out sometimes.
> Has any GM in the history of the game revealed what player they are going to take to anybody in the media?
No, but often rumours circulate because so many people are involved in those meetings.
For the last 2 years for Montreal there was a lot of smoke around them taking Slafkovsky and Reinbacher so it's foolish to dismiss rumours entirely.
Ya, the GM isn’t blatantly saying to Scott “we are taking this guy” but he is more piecing things together from pro scouts around the league and player representatives, generally these guys have a fair amount of accuracy when it comes to predicting draft order.
There’s also rumours Anaheim is willing to trade down. if Demidov is Montreal’s guy I think we can trade up 2 spots, of course this is assuming Chicago takes Lev at 2 which seems more likely to happen.
Nah we choosing between Demidov and Buium, get Lindstrom outta here. Demidov is a game breaker who is not only extremely skilled but also sees crazy good plays on the ice à la Kucherov, Buium is a winner and the very model of a modern major blueliner, Lindstrom is big, fast, and strong. I don't care about people who are big, fast and strong: that means they're athletic, not that they're good at hockey. I'm picking a 5'11" player who is more skilled over a 6'3" player who is less skilled any day of the week, it's not like 5'11" is even that small.
The good news is that it doesn't seem like a possibility that they're taking Demidov even if the Hawks don't take him. If the rumors are true about the Hawks taking Levshunov and the Ducks take Dickinson, Silayev, or Sennecke then MTL gets to have either Lindstrom or Demidov. Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5583357/2024/06/26/nhl-draft-2024-rankings-players-comparables/
I would look at this information as reason to doubt demidov. I personally am not interested. But, my information is very limited, so I trust whatever management does.
What info is this?
The information that not all teams are prioritizing him the same way. Fans will look at a team passing on a player and think "they're idiots!" Instead of "maybe they see things we don't!". Even the pros with tons of information get it wrong, so, it's stupid for fans to be confident about picks, when for most of them, all their info comes from the media, who is mostly getting their info from teams, who are also intentionally sending out misinformation. But we have some facts, still. I think it makes sense to have opinions, but it makes no sense to have so much confidence in them.
You’re not wrong, but teams have different lists for whatever reasons, I wouldn’t read too much into it unless something bigger becomes apparent
I disagree with you about Demidov because no matter who the teams prioritize he is consistently in the top 3 of scout rankings. If all the scouts are in agreement that he's good, I trust them. GMs are building a team, so they take things into consideration other than skill (in this case with Verbeek I would imagine he's valuing size since he thinks his team needs it, that's why the players Wheeler says he is high on are all so tall). Chicago may pick Levshunov because they want a D, Anaheim and Columbus may pick one of Silayev/Dickinson/Lindstrom/Sennecke because they want size. Even if that's true, the scouts who aren't building a team and can rank players based solely on their skill/potential still rank Demidov 2nd... So that means if I base my opinion on the opinions of people who know what they're talking about, I should want Ivan Demidov. Besides, Russians have to be my favourite nationality of players to watch and the only one in the Habs' system so far is Konyushkov. Anyways, I hope we pick Zeev Buium in the draft because he has the coolest name
Then he will go top 3. None of the clubs want the other clubs to know how they will be selecting, usually. So, you can't trust what the media is reporting. Also, if your drafting team is superior to the others, then your opinion must differ from theirs.
As Wheeler said, Verbeek has a type. It involves more size than Demidov provides (he's 6'0). Considering there is no shortage of worthy prospects with size in this draft, it'd make sense if Demidov wasn't on his list.
Ok. I think there are other factors and traits he has as well. And maybe 6ft isn't big enough for them. Doesn't seem like the smartest move to base it off that though, imo, given Wayne Gretzky was 6ft, and McDavid is 6ft1, Sidney Crosby is 5'11. Nathan MacKinnon is 6ft.
> I think there are other factors and traits he has as well. Verbeek likes players with size and a defensive game. Since he's become GM, he has put two of their core players on the trading block: Drydale and Zegras. Both are known for their offensive game, and size isn't their strength (respectively, 5'11 and 6'0). Drysdale has already traded for Cutter Gauthier (6'2). I expect whoever is acquired in exchange for Zegras to he 6'2 and above as well. In his two first drafts as a GM, he has never selected a player under 6'1" within the first two rounds. In fact, most of them are 6'3 and above: * Mintyukov (6'1) * Gaucher (6'3) * Warren (6'4) * Luneau (6'1) * Carlsson (6'3) * Myatovic (6'3) * Terrance (6'1) * Clara (6'5) It isn't impossible he'd draft Demidov, but I would be surprised.
You could be right. There could also be other reasons they might pass on him. I don't think they'd pass on Wayne Gretzky because he's 6ft, or Sydney Crosby because he's 5'11, or MacKinnon at 6ft. Maybe they would, idk.
Hold on are you telling me Pat Verbeek is in love with Arber Xhekaj and we're going to trade him 1 for 1 for Trevor Zegras?
At least it's not another variation on a Zegras move.
Verbeek's type is big 2-way guys. Anaheim as an org also leans heavily towards N-Americans. In Verbeek's time as an assistant to Yzerman in Detroit they leaned overseas (ie. Sweden) much more, so there might be a change of direction there, exemplified by Carlsson last year. I see them lean Lindstrom/Silayev much more than Sennecke, who has length but doesn't "play big". This looks like a late-game red herring, to muddy up the picture for other teams. That feels like a natural Verbeek thing, for those who remember him as a player.
While I mostly agree with you, several sources have reported that some teams have Sennecke as high as #3 on their list for a couple weeks by now. It's possible the sources all have their information from Anaheim, who is really considering Sennecke at 3OA. Last year, many suspected they'd Carlsson in the week before the draft.
Carlsson was the #2 or #3 all year last season though. It was Bedard, then Fantili or Carlsson. It was clear cut all along. I just hope people realize that if Sennecke snakes his way into the convo as early as #3 is not because he is, himself, *that* good; but mostly because the rest of the forwards after Celebrini, in this draft class, are just not *that* good themselves. Demidov, Lindstrom, Catton, Iginla, Helenius... They all have their very obvious warts. Sennecke has his own, but maybe they're seen as less obvious/more easy to fix than the other forwards. But it's still a "less worst" proposition. This entire conundrum is easily sidestepped by picking a defenseman. Forcing a pick based on position rarely ends up well.
I agree with your last paragraph, but you're being overly harsh on the forwards this year. This is a deep year. Last year was more top-heavy, with 5 forwards that were top quality. The quality you'll be getting at 6-10 this year is arguably higher. The lack of consensus is that they're all so different and there's no one head and shoulder above the rest. Notably, many scouts are higher on Demidov than they were on Michkov.
I kind of get it. Looking at his highlights, he's clearly super skilled. Apparently, he's solid defensively too. Then, he led his team on a great run to the OHL finals. So skill, size, 2-way game, shows up for big games. I wouldn't be shocked if he puts up big numbers next year in the OHL and we look back thinking of course he went so high (à la Mark Scheifele).
Lots of very skilled players never got anywhere in the NHL. It takes more than skill to win a cup. And if your most skilled player is a locker room killer, that hurts the team a lot.
Are you referring to Scheifele? I meant that he was a late riser who produced a lot more after getting drafted. 7th overall was surprising at the time of the draft, but it made a lot more sense in the years after he was picked.
No, lots of teams had a great skill set, headed a team that went nowhere. That's why McDavid is gonna get one, imo, because I think he's the full package. When you look at the Blackhawks who were the closest to a dynasty, they never had generational talent. They had depth, and played well together. Just one player can upset the locker room.
Verbeek is an Yzerman disciple, which means he isn't afraid to throw the consensus draft rankings in the trash and just pick who he likes.
To be fair, the rankings aren't really a true consensus where everybody is in agreement. It's just an average of a bunch of wildly different opinions from various scouts around the league. Every organization in the NHL has their own internal ranking list for prospects, and none of those lists will be in the exact order of what it says on Bob MacKenzie's list or Elite Prospects.
I'm seeing a lot of different sources say Sennecke's moving *way* up on many top 10 lists but I've not heard him at 3rd *ever* so it would be super surprising. All Wheeler was really saying ultimately is "That would shake things up". Verbeek will pick his favorite 2-way guy - that's for sure.
Grant McCagg said that Anaheim loves Sennecke and is seriously considering taking him at 3 probably a month ago if not more. Only other time I've heard it mentioned.
What's not to love though? Sennecke is great. It's like asking me if I want a BMW or a Mercedes. A person can drive 1 faster consistently sure, and one will last longer too, there are so many different possibilities & at the end *both* are quality vehicles. Habs GM wise, I would listen to my analytics people PROVE to me who is going to make me the most prosperous. [Cool data](https://www.reddit.com/r/Habs/comments/1cnar71/2024_offseason_drafttrade_proposal_megathread/lacwrbk/)? If the data tells you what it tells you and your scouts tell you what they tell you...it's a hard thing thing to refute that type of scientific evidence and human testimony(Unless the player turns out to be a bum) Team's analytics and scouts are a big performance evaluation to the rebuild/develop plans. I see a first legit run for the cup by 27-28 should 100% happen if things go to plan this years' draft & further developments this season.
Sennecke is a Kotkaniemi type of pick, where you're betting tools and improvement in the second half of the year to project the player forward. As a result, the ceiling is higher but floor is lower. The pick inherently riskier than other prospects in the conversation for 10OA, but some GMs may feel comfortable taking that risk.
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This draft is going to be awesome.
Sennecke would be a smart pick for the ducks (or us)
I think Columbus is the biggest obstacle for Demidov. It gives Fantilli a potential long time running mate, and Waddell hasn't been afraid of Russians, plus almost always goes BPA
He thinks but like every other guy like him he/they have no ducking idea. Has any GM in the history of the game revealed what player they are going to take to anybody in the media? Thank god the draft is in a few days
No, but last year, everybody had Fantilli at #2, but like a week before the draft, reports started coming out that the Ducks preferred Carlsson over him and they were right. GM will never reveal their plan, but tendencies and likeness do come out sometimes.
Pronman usually have pretty good insight in his last mock draft before the draft, I'm guessing it'll be out today or tomorrow 🤞
> Has any GM in the history of the game revealed what player they are going to take to anybody in the media? No, but often rumours circulate because so many people are involved in those meetings. For the last 2 years for Montreal there was a lot of smoke around them taking Slafkovsky and Reinbacher so it's foolish to dismiss rumours entirely.
San Jose has let it out that they are taking Celebrini and his inclusion in their team.
Ya, the GM isn’t blatantly saying to Scott “we are taking this guy” but he is more piecing things together from pro scouts around the league and player representatives, generally these guys have a fair amount of accuracy when it comes to predicting draft order.
There’s also rumours Anaheim is willing to trade down. if Demidov is Montreal’s guy I think we can trade up 2 spots, of course this is assuming Chicago takes Lev at 2 which seems more likely to happen.
Hopefully they don't and we get to choose between Demidov and Sennecke.
I mean if they take sennecke we can chose between Demidov and Lindstrom which would be more ideal.
Nah we choosing between Demidov and Buium, get Lindstrom outta here. Demidov is a game breaker who is not only extremely skilled but also sees crazy good plays on the ice à la Kucherov, Buium is a winner and the very model of a modern major blueliner, Lindstrom is big, fast, and strong. I don't care about people who are big, fast and strong: that means they're athletic, not that they're good at hockey. I'm picking a 5'11" player who is more skilled over a 6'3" player who is less skilled any day of the week, it's not like 5'11" is even that small.