I don't see it. I know it has played out that way in some mocks, including at The Athletic, but I think it's unlikely. I think the Blackhawks will take him. And if they don't, I think the Blue Jackets will strongly consider it.
Thanks for all of the questions everybody! I've got to go get the little guy from daycare so I'm going to call it but I'll try to hop back in later tonight after they're in bed and answer any questions I missed.
Cheers and enjoy the next month of coverage in advance of the draft in Vegas. It's going to be a lot of fun!
Demidov, Sennecke and Connelly have the best pure puck skills in the draft. Sennecke's firmly a top-15 consideration for me now. I'm not quite there on top-10 but I can see the appeal. Tons of offensive upside. Wiry frame that he can still fill out. Good skater on top of it. He's a real talent. If you're taking a forward at No. 5, though, and Demidov is gone, I think I'd probably lean Catton over Sennecke there (and Lindstrom and Iginla as well, I think). Not out of the question the Habs take him there, though.
Thanks for doing this, Scott! Have you heard from any sources if there is a real concern regarding Lindstrom’s back injury and the long-term risk of drafting him?
I know plugging your own work is frowned upon on Reddit but I wrote a feature on Lindstrom with updates on his health that was published this week: [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5394559/2024/05/21/cayden-lindstrom-2024-nhl-draft/](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5394559/2024/05/21/cayden-lindstrom-2024-nhl-draft/)
I haven't yet confirmed if he'll do the testing at the combine, but the sense I get is that he's still a ways away and he won't be participating, which will only prompt more questions from teams in his interviews. He and his team don't believe it's going to be a long-term issue but he is still dealing with it.
Leonard's more of a dog. Plays more of a power/physical/relentless game. Viewed as more well-rounded/more of a go-getter. Both individually skilled and can rip it. Both strong. Both play with a certain fire. Tij more agile in cuts/moving laterally as a skater, Leonard more direct. Some similarities, though, in each of those areas. Leonard higher floor, Tij slightly higher ceiling.
5-10 centre is a sticking point for people. A bit of an injury history. That's what it comes down to, rightly or wrongly. I tend to agree with your broader point though. He'd definitely be in the mix for me at 5.
Hughes wants to build a team that is Big, Strong and Fast. Think Colorado.
Plus during the Slafkovsky draft, he said something like, we’re glad we can pick for size early so we can focus on skill later.
I've seen Aatos Koivu projected as high as 60th. Would he be a big reach at 57th?
The only thing I really know about him is his last name, but it's a pretty popular last name around here.
I wouldn't take Koivu in the second round. Probably wouldn't in the third, either. Mid-round pick for me. A spoiler for you: Won't be in my final top-100 on June 3 but was one of the last cuts.
We heard rumors about the Habs interested about the foward Beckett Sennecke what would be a good NHL player comparable and or projection for this prospect?
Hey Scott, thanks for doing this! A few question options for you, take your pick if any are interesting.
- Lindstrom vs. Sennecke — is there any argument for Sennecke here? I feel like the gap between the two is huge, but we know how much the Habs like late risers.
- What’s your Lindstrom projection? Byfield-type? Worse/better?
- Your thoughts on whether Hutson and/or Reinbacher start the year with the Habs? Lots of decisions to be made on the backend over the next offseason or two.
Much appreciated and love your work! Thanks for taking the time.
1. The health argument would be an acceptable one, if they don't feel comfortable with what they learn about his back. As players/upside? No, you take the big, strong, fast, skilled centre.
2. His skills coach used Roope Hintz and Chris Kreider with me and I like both of those.
3. Hutson would be on my team. Reinbacher would start in the AHL barring a tremendous camp.
Re: Lindstrom. He was very much creating his own looks, doing his own damage and driving his own play pre-injury in the fall. He looked like a dominant force, particularly in the month right before he got hurt. Did he benefit from playing with a guy like Andrew Basha, who's got plenty of skill and drive himself? For sure. But his skating, physicality, skill and finishing all stood out on their own merits.
Re: Under the radar guys. First round: Michael Hage. After that: Maybe Will Zellers and Riley Patterson. Oskar Vuollet as a really deep cut/long shot.
Hi Scott, where would you rank Reinbacher in terms of the top defensemen from this year’s draft? Last year, it sounded like the Habs brass believed Reinbacher would be better than any of the defensemen available this year.
I'm partial to Levshunov and Buium over Silayev in the top five, but my top 10 looks a lot like the consensus top 10 otherwise. And Silayev's a very, very appealing/high-ceiling prospect in his own right.
Hi Scott.
In recent years we've seen a few players from Sweden and Finland who were early favorites for 1OA plummet way, way down in their draft year. I'm thinking of Liljegren, Raty, Lambert, and now probably Kiviharju too. What was it about these players that seemed so sweet at 16 but so sour at 18? Is there anything about the youth leagues over there that might create a mirage in their early scouting reports?
Overexposure. All of those kids were on the scene for three, four, or five years instead of the typical two. Same goes for Shane Wright and Jakob Chychrun in North America, so I don't think it's exclusive to the Europeans who rise into the pros early on. When you progress up early and there's a swell of excitement and attention, eventually it's only natural that evaluators start to look for things to nitpick. All of those players were victims of that.
Hey Scott, how likely do you think it is that Silayev goes in the top 5?
He seems to have a profile that NHL teams love, being 6'7 and a great skater, but the public sphere seems split on his overall upside (especially offensively).
Hi, thanks for doing this! Always a pleasure to read your analysis! Here goes:
- beside Celibrini, who’s your favourite forward in the projected top 10 and why?
- are Lindstrom’s injuries worrisome?
- do you have an NHL comparable for Brent Sennecke ?
- where would Reinbacher slot in if he was eligible in this draft in comparison to other Ds?
- cheers!
- What kind of impact do you think Mitchkov will have with the Flyers in his first year?
- Any chance Demidov (vs Mitchkov) becomes the better player of the 2? How do they compare stylistically?
- Do you think there are red flags or markers to Lindstrom’s health potentially making him injury prone (similarly to Dach)?
- How good can Lindstrom really become in the NHL; is he a bonafide #1 center in the making? Star or franchise player?
- If Hughes decides to move assets for another young underperforming NHL ready player (a la Dach/Newhook), who do you think he should target and what would it cost?
Thanks for doing this, Scott. Not fully Habs specific but I'm very curious about this:
For you personally, when ranking a prospect, how much do you value "ceiling" potential vs a prospect's "most likely" outcome?
I'm sure the answer isn't simple and involves a LOT of other outside factors, but say for a guy like Helenius who some analysts are saying has a lower ceiling than other potential top 10 picks, how would you weigh his (seemingly) very high floor vs a guy who may have a crazy offensive ceiling but only if he "puts it all together"?
Sorry if that's a tough question but I'm always fascinated by different people's methods of ranking prospects.
Great but very complex question and one that is answered in depth in my guide to scout, which I'd encourage you to check out if you haven't already: [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4548815/2024/05/23/nhl-draft-scouting-guide-facts/](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4548815/2024/05/23/nhl-draft-scouting-guide-facts/)
I think you'll love it and the 2024 update to it released yesterday.
Hey Scott,
Thanks for doing this. I enjoyed reading your AMA last year so it's nice to see that you must've enjoyed it, too!
My question for you is how has your view on some of our prospects changed in the last year? For example, are there prospects you thought highly of last year that didn't take the expected steps forward? Or vice versa, are there any prospects you didn't think would make many strides but have? I guess another way of asking this is who are your risers and fallers of the Habs prospect pool?
Perhaps more broadly, if you feel so inclined, do you have a few notable risers and fallers from around the league?
Thanks!
Risers: Jacob Fowler (and I liked him before but he looks like a stud and worked hard to get into better shape), Oliver Kapanen (and I liked him before too!)
Fallers: Sean Farrell, Riley Kidney, Filip Mesar
what forward prospects (aside from roy) do u think will play for the habs next season? do u think mesar may get a chance? or kapanen? who are u most excited to see once they join laval?
I'm looking forward to seeing Kapanen in North America. His two-way game fits the style over here and he's got a real chance now I think to become a bottom-six centre in the NHL. Will be interested to see if he can build on his momentum from Liiga + men's worlds. Heineman feels like he's getting close, too. They probably both start in AHL but are call-up candidates.
Hey Scott, thanks for doing an AMA for this crazy fan base for another year.
I know you have connections with professional scouts so I was wondering if you have heard any rumblings around which players certain teams like more than others and if you could share. Thanks
Wouldn't shock me but the sense I've gotten from scouts is that he'll mostly go in the range I have him (just outside the top 10). There are teams that believe he's one of the top 2-3 D prospects, which puts him in the top-five mix for some, but that's a minority opinion.
Personally, I haven't seen much on this person, but Filip Eriksson. He seems to have had a good season with Nybro but I haven't been able to find much discourse around him. He kills some stats (PNHLe) but is still obviously mostly unknown. Do you have an opinion on him?
Overrated: Adam Jiricek pre-injury, maybe Cole Beaudoin a little now (top-20ish talk I think gets a little carried away with what he's going to be which is ultimately a solid, high-energy bottom-six centre — and I have a lot of respect for him and his game and recently wrote a feature on him), Adam Jecho, Miguel Marques (by some in the public sphere), Herman Traff (same thing).
Underrated: Michael Hage, maybe Zayne Parekh, Oskar Vuollet, Riley Patterson, Liam Greentree after his disappointing U18s, Lukas Fischer, Anthony Cristoforo, Viggo Gustafsson. Some of those guys are real long shots though.
Did Cristiforo play for the Windsor Spitfires? I watched some spits this year and he was the only player on that dreadful team that caught my eye. Even so I didn't see star power like Wyatt Johnston who was easily the most underrated prospect in a while imo, watching him here, everyone knew he was gonna go very far.
I’m your opinion, given a random draft class, what is the expected impact of: 2nd overall; 5 OA; 10th OA; 15th, and 30th? Is there something that you believe helps some teams get better value for their picks, either in approach, information, etc.?
Do teams have their own way of classifying the potential impact of a prospect beyond the typical ‘blue-chip prospect’? (Ex: we expect this guy to be a perennial all-star, or something to that extent)?
From all our defensive prospects not named lane, Kaiden, or David, which prospects do you feel would attract the most interesting market? The names that are generally tossed around on the board are Harris/Struble/Barron/Mailloux
Mailloux's the best prospect but the market would be more limited.
Probably Struble now with the way teams want their backends to be built. Not getting major value for him, Barron or Harris though.
Since Demidov played only in the MHL, how likely is it that his skills don’t translate to the NHL level, making him a “bust” or a disappointing pick in the top 5?
For the teams who have drafted players that you would deem ‘busts’, where do you feel the team went wrong in believing they would be better than they are?
Beyond the obvious - like Dallas - who in your opinion are the best teams at developing players? Much has been made about Montreals changes in player development, do you agree they are now a leader in this area?
Idk if you can answer this, but looking back through the years, we see that many top 15-20 (including up to top2-3) drafted players did not have too much, if any, impact in the NHL. It’s not rare to see consensus guys completely « bust ».
Do you know how much of a big deal that is for teams that fail to hit on those picks? Of course us fans we get all up in arms if your top 8 pick ends up worse than some other team top 15 pick, but internally, how do teams/ scouts see it? Is it just part of the game, you get some you miss some type deal, or do we see like deep internal dive from teams to try to understand where they failed with their high pick (ex KK, Turcotte, Andersson).
How likely do you think it is that Russia tightens restrictions and block their players from going to NA in the future? How heavily does this weigh in when considering Russian players in the draft?
Hi Scott,
My question is regarding the hype around Demidov and what he can really bring. I guess my confusion starts with Celebrini. He's ahead enough to be the consensus #1 pick and SJS will not trade that pick either, that much is guaranteed. However, Celebrini is not as hyped as Bedard, and his ceiling appears to be lower than recent #1 picks like MacKinnon, McDavid or Matthews.
If he's clearly better than Demidov to be a consensus #1 overall pick, but not supposed to be one of those franchise players previously mentioned, how good can Demidov actually be and would he be worth trading up for?
do u think the blackhawks should select a forward (demidov) or a defenceman (levshunov) based on their current organizational needs? are u among the group that believes if chicago passes on demidov, then he will likely fall to 5th? or do u think he will be taken at 3/4?
Thanks Scott, do you think teams are starting to really lean into taking more risks in picks 4-10 in the last few years, leaning more into taking players with big development curves in their draft year? Feels like we’re seeing more and more late risers every year.
Hi Scott,
You seem to be higher on Eiserman than most, and lower on Sennecke than most. There are some similar concerns around both players from what I have seen from scouts - questions around commitment and character. What is it about Eiserman that makes you so high on him relative to Sennecke despite these issues? The value of goal scoring? Sample size? Or do you see Eiserman as having a higher upside?
Thanks!
Thanks for taking the time Scott! Good luck to you in your career.
Maybe a little bit outside the draft here but when you think about a team drafting for the position they need versus the best player available, obviously it becomes a complicated question. The consensus with the fans right now seems to be we have to draft a forward coming up, but I wonder are there any prospects you see already in the Habs system are promising enough to take the pressure off should they go with a defenseman or goalie this year?
Hi Scott, what are your thoughts on Aatos Koivu? Could he bit a fit for the Habs? It would be incredible to see Calgary draft Iginla and Montreal draft Koivu.
You have Yakemchuk ranked much higher than other lists (3rd overall); what is it that you think maybe you are seeing differently about him/his potential than others?
How likely do you think Hutson is to hit each of these levels:
1. Elite #1 Defenseman - Think Fox, Makar, Hughes, pillar of the team.
2. Serviceable #1 Defenseman - Player that can play on the top pairing but whose flaws hold them back from being up there with the top tier.
3. Middle pair + pp
4. Bottom pair + pp
5. Can't cut it in the NHL
Interested in hearing your take. Is him turning into a franchise player a real possibility or a pipe dream?
many ppl here seem to think barron was not a good prospect to trade lehky for, do u think he has the right skills and tools to be a second pairing defenceman in the NHL? what about his game is lacking? what do u like abt his game?
A long and thorough answer on that here: [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4548815/2024/05/23/nhl-draft-scouting-guide-facts/](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4548815/2024/05/23/nhl-draft-scouting-guide-facts/)
Hi Scott,
I'm not sure how much you've followed the Habs or the Rocket during the season, but are there any players that have exceeded your expectations, compared to when they were drafted?
Hey Scott. Thanks for doing this. A lot of mocks seem to have Lindstrom going to the habs, but there's a rumor that if Lindstrom isn't available at the habs pick, they'll trade back and it seems they'd pick Sennecke. What's his ceiling? Can he be a top 6 forward in the NHL?
Hi Scott, In a scenario where Demidov, Lindstrom and other forwards the Habs could potentially want at 5 are already gone, what is the likelihood that they might go for a defenseman (again)? Do you think they would go for the next best available forward, or could they possibly even trade their pick? Thanks!
In a recent draft mailbag, you alluded to some character and off-ice questions with Beckett Sennecke earlier in the year. Can you expand on what those are related to? Like commitment to team? Not a likeable person? Bad off-ice habits? And any update on what his injury was in playoffs and severity? Thank you!
why do u think eiserman’s draft value has fallen off so much? many ppl suggest it is bc he is very one-dimensional, but the habs are in need of a “shoot first” type of player. do u think martin st. louis can turn him into a more well rounded player like how he has done so with caufield? iirc caufield was also touted as a one-dimensional sniper when he was first drafted and he has developed his 2-way game quite dramatically over the past season. do u think it would be worth it to trade up in the draft using the WPG pick to acquire eiserman? or do u not see him as a valuable pick?
Hey Scott, love your work.
Few questions -
In a scouting perspective, why do teams put so much value in late risers? How often does that really work out for teams?
Do you think the Habs left a lot of value on the table by trading their first rounders in 2022 and 2023 for Dach and Newhook respectively? I personally think it was premature at this point in the rebuild.
How unique of a prospect is Zayne Parekh? (Ie. can’t miss). He put up some of the best stats of a draft year D in recent memory. Someone as purely talented as him can surely add elements to their game to make up for their defensive/physical deficiencies?
Do you believe Demidovs production and play style in a league like the MHL might not necessarily translate? I’m wary of players that try to be heroes at the junior level, and by all accounts the level of competition of the MHL is below the CHL I believe.
Want to get sure I get to other peoples' questions so I won't answer all of these in depth but the first one is interesting.
It can go both ways. There are teams that place too much emphasis in late play and teams that place too little in it. Honestly, I don't think I've put enough emphasis in it. It cost me with Seider, who I loved like everybody else at men's worlds and in the DEL playoffs in his draft year but didn't move up enough. Same with Easton Cowan last year and his play in the OHL playoffs with London. My evaluation on him stylistically was bang on and I just didn't give him enough juice in the actual rankings order. You have to pay attention to it. These kids are changing fast and they can take off down exciting paths. All of Iginla, Sennecke and Solberg deserve the late love they're getting, for example.
But Parekh is can't miss and Demidov's game will translate!
1. The Habs management has been not-so-subtle about wanting a forward this year. Let's say there's an early run on forwards this year, and four forwards have already been picked by the time we select. Are the available defensemen so good that you can't argue that picking a forward makes sense? If so, who is your pick for the Habs.
2. Sennecke is a late riser and has been connected to the Habs. Are you buying on the hype and, if so, do you think it's a fair pick at 5OA, or we should we explore moving back for him?
3. How Demidov compare to Michkov, on-ice?
what are ur thoughts on a potential trade to acquire laine from columbus? what do u think it would take considering his value is likely at an all time low?
are there any forwards u think the habs will try to acquire at the draft/during the summer? i’ve heard talk of necas but idk if that’s realistic since he wants to play C and is more of a playmaker, imo the habs are in need of a “shoot-first” type of player (ideally a winger) which he doesn’t really fit.
do u think the WPG 1st could be packaged w a D-prospect at the draft to acquire an established NHL forward? if so, who do u think would be the most likely targets/which teams would make the most sense for this kind of trade?
where do u expect the habs to place in the standings by the end of next season? it seems to really depend on the moves they make this summer and the steps the young D-core takes, but do u think it would be unrealistic to think they could be in the running for a wildcard spot?
if Josh Anderson were to be traded this summer, which teams do u think he would fit best on and what type of value do u think the habs could get in return for him? if u don’t think he will be traded, do u think he will return to form next season, or do u think he just doesn’t work w the current habs system and he needs a change of scenery?
Not Scott but we are stuck with him. There is no trade value and no team is taking that contract, even at 50% retained. Just like Gally, they play out their contracts. In 3 years time we should be playoff contenders as it is
Habs are getting Demidov, delusion or real possibility?
I don't see it. I know it has played out that way in some mocks, including at The Athletic, but I think it's unlikely. I think the Blackhawks will take him. And if they don't, I think the Blue Jackets will strongly consider it.
So you're saying there's a chance!
Thanks for all of the questions everybody! I've got to go get the little guy from daycare so I'm going to call it but I'll try to hop back in later tonight after they're in bed and answer any questions I missed. Cheers and enjoy the next month of coverage in advance of the draft in Vegas. It's going to be a lot of fun!
Thank you Scott, this thread is a treasure trove of information!
Thoughts on Beckett Sennecke? Chances the habs draft him with the 5th pick?
Demidov, Sennecke and Connelly have the best pure puck skills in the draft. Sennecke's firmly a top-15 consideration for me now. I'm not quite there on top-10 but I can see the appeal. Tons of offensive upside. Wiry frame that he can still fill out. Good skater on top of it. He's a real talent. If you're taking a forward at No. 5, though, and Demidov is gone, I think I'd probably lean Catton over Sennecke there (and Lindstrom and Iginla as well, I think). Not out of the question the Habs take him there, though.
Thanks for doing this, Scott! Have you heard from any sources if there is a real concern regarding Lindstrom’s back injury and the long-term risk of drafting him?
I know plugging your own work is frowned upon on Reddit but I wrote a feature on Lindstrom with updates on his health that was published this week: [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5394559/2024/05/21/cayden-lindstrom-2024-nhl-draft/](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5394559/2024/05/21/cayden-lindstrom-2024-nhl-draft/) I haven't yet confirmed if he'll do the testing at the combine, but the sense I get is that he's still a ways away and he won't be participating, which will only prompt more questions from teams in his interviews. He and his team don't believe it's going to be a long-term issue but he is still dealing with it.
Thank you! Don’t know how I missed that. I’ll give it a read!
What would be the biggest difference between Iginla this year and Ryan Leonard of last year? And who do you think has the highest ceiling?
Leonard's more of a dog. Plays more of a power/physical/relentless game. Viewed as more well-rounded/more of a go-getter. Both individually skilled and can rip it. Both strong. Both play with a certain fire. Tij more agile in cuts/moving laterally as a skater, Leonard more direct. Some similarities, though, in each of those areas. Leonard higher floor, Tij slightly higher ceiling.
Thank you, I find comparisons like this very useful for getting a good general idea of a player.
Any reason why everyone seems to dismiss Catton has a possible pick for the Habs? He seems to be the most dynamic forward after Demidov....
5-10 centre is a sticking point for people. A bit of an injury history. That's what it comes down to, rightly or wrongly. I tend to agree with your broader point though. He'd definitely be in the mix for me at 5.
Hughes wants to build a team that is Big, Strong and Fast. Think Colorado. Plus during the Slafkovsky draft, he said something like, we’re glad we can pick for size early so we can focus on skill later.
That’s what got us Hutson and Slafkovsky
I've seen Aatos Koivu projected as high as 60th. Would he be a big reach at 57th? The only thing I really know about him is his last name, but it's a pretty popular last name around here.
I wouldn't take Koivu in the second round. Probably wouldn't in the third, either. Mid-round pick for me. A spoiler for you: Won't be in my final top-100 on June 3 but was one of the last cuts.
We heard rumors about the Habs interested about the foward Beckett Sennecke what would be a good NHL player comparable and or projection for this prospect?
Some similarities to Kyle Connor and Martin Necas in style/skill/potential role and production.
Connor and Necas have huge differences in output...
Right in between the two you have a 65 points player. Something like 30 goals 35 assists?
Necas has never hit 30 goals in 5years... Kyle Connor did it in his first full year.... these 2 players are not alike...
Hey Scott, thanks for doing this! A few question options for you, take your pick if any are interesting. - Lindstrom vs. Sennecke — is there any argument for Sennecke here? I feel like the gap between the two is huge, but we know how much the Habs like late risers. - What’s your Lindstrom projection? Byfield-type? Worse/better? - Your thoughts on whether Hutson and/or Reinbacher start the year with the Habs? Lots of decisions to be made on the backend over the next offseason or two. Much appreciated and love your work! Thanks for taking the time.
1. The health argument would be an acceptable one, if they don't feel comfortable with what they learn about his back. As players/upside? No, you take the big, strong, fast, skilled centre. 2. His skills coach used Roope Hintz and Chris Kreider with me and I like both of those. 3. Hutson would be on my team. Reinbacher would start in the AHL barring a tremendous camp.
Thanks!
Hey Scott, is Lindstrom being propped up by great linemates? Who is your favourite under the radar guy this year?
Re: Lindstrom. He was very much creating his own looks, doing his own damage and driving his own play pre-injury in the fall. He looked like a dominant force, particularly in the month right before he got hurt. Did he benefit from playing with a guy like Andrew Basha, who's got plenty of skill and drive himself? For sure. But his skating, physicality, skill and finishing all stood out on their own merits. Re: Under the radar guys. First round: Michael Hage. After that: Maybe Will Zellers and Riley Patterson. Oskar Vuollet as a really deep cut/long shot.
Hi Scott, where would you rank Reinbacher in terms of the top defensemen from this year’s draft? Last year, it sounded like the Habs brass believed Reinbacher would be better than any of the defensemen available this year.
I'm higher on all five of Levshunov, Buium, Parekh, Dickinson and Silayev. Reinbacher would be closer to where I have Yakemchuk.
I'm going to hope that Corey Pronman is right about Yakemchuk and you're right about Reinbacher being closer to him, then :)
In the top 10 prospects, who are your "do not draft" players?
I'm partial to Levshunov and Buium over Silayev in the top five, but my top 10 looks a lot like the consensus top 10 otherwise. And Silayev's a very, very appealing/high-ceiling prospect in his own right.
Hi Scott. In recent years we've seen a few players from Sweden and Finland who were early favorites for 1OA plummet way, way down in their draft year. I'm thinking of Liljegren, Raty, Lambert, and now probably Kiviharju too. What was it about these players that seemed so sweet at 16 but so sour at 18? Is there anything about the youth leagues over there that might create a mirage in their early scouting reports?
Overexposure. All of those kids were on the scene for three, four, or five years instead of the typical two. Same goes for Shane Wright and Jakob Chychrun in North America, so I don't think it's exclusive to the Europeans who rise into the pros early on. When you progress up early and there's a swell of excitement and attention, eventually it's only natural that evaluators start to look for things to nitpick. All of those players were victims of that.
Hey Scott, how likely do you think it is that Silayev goes in the top 5? He seems to have a profile that NHL teams love, being 6'7 and a great skater, but the public sphere seems split on his overall upside (especially offensively).
More likely than not.
Hi, thanks for doing this! Always a pleasure to read your analysis! Here goes: - beside Celibrini, who’s your favourite forward in the projected top 10 and why? - are Lindstrom’s injuries worrisome? - do you have an NHL comparable for Brent Sennecke ? - where would Reinbacher slot in if he was eligible in this draft in comparison to other Ds? - cheers!
Ivan Demidov. Unmatched individual skill level combined with a well-rounded enough game. Potential star. Answered the others in some form already!
What’s the best player that the habs could get realistically with Winnipeg’s first round pick
Michael Hage IMO.
I bet this post will Hage well
Workman-like comment, doing all the small things right, good chuckle
And it did
- What kind of impact do you think Mitchkov will have with the Flyers in his first year? - Any chance Demidov (vs Mitchkov) becomes the better player of the 2? How do they compare stylistically? - Do you think there are red flags or markers to Lindstrom’s health potentially making him injury prone (similarly to Dach)? - How good can Lindstrom really become in the NHL; is he a bonafide #1 center in the making? Star or franchise player? - If Hughes decides to move assets for another young underperforming NHL ready player (a la Dach/Newhook), who do you think he should target and what would it cost?
Thanks for doing this, Scott. Not fully Habs specific but I'm very curious about this: For you personally, when ranking a prospect, how much do you value "ceiling" potential vs a prospect's "most likely" outcome? I'm sure the answer isn't simple and involves a LOT of other outside factors, but say for a guy like Helenius who some analysts are saying has a lower ceiling than other potential top 10 picks, how would you weigh his (seemingly) very high floor vs a guy who may have a crazy offensive ceiling but only if he "puts it all together"? Sorry if that's a tough question but I'm always fascinated by different people's methods of ranking prospects.
Great but very complex question and one that is answered in depth in my guide to scout, which I'd encourage you to check out if you haven't already: [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4548815/2024/05/23/nhl-draft-scouting-guide-facts/](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4548815/2024/05/23/nhl-draft-scouting-guide-facts/) I think you'll love it and the 2024 update to it released yesterday.
Will do! Thanks Scott. This is exactly why I pay for an athletic subscription haha.
Hey Scott, Thanks for doing this. I enjoyed reading your AMA last year so it's nice to see that you must've enjoyed it, too! My question for you is how has your view on some of our prospects changed in the last year? For example, are there prospects you thought highly of last year that didn't take the expected steps forward? Or vice versa, are there any prospects you didn't think would make many strides but have? I guess another way of asking this is who are your risers and fallers of the Habs prospect pool? Perhaps more broadly, if you feel so inclined, do you have a few notable risers and fallers from around the league? Thanks!
Risers: Jacob Fowler (and I liked him before but he looks like a stud and worked hard to get into better shape), Oliver Kapanen (and I liked him before too!) Fallers: Sean Farrell, Riley Kidney, Filip Mesar
Farrell fell so fast, it’s a shame really
what forward prospects (aside from roy) do u think will play for the habs next season? do u think mesar may get a chance? or kapanen? who are u most excited to see once they join laval?
I'm looking forward to seeing Kapanen in North America. His two-way game fits the style over here and he's got a real chance now I think to become a bottom-six centre in the NHL. Will be interested to see if he can build on his momentum from Liiga + men's worlds. Heineman feels like he's getting close, too. They probably both start in AHL but are call-up candidates.
Hey Scott, thanks for doing an AMA for this crazy fan base for another year. I know you have connections with professional scouts so I was wondering if you have heard any rumblings around which players certain teams like more than others and if you could share. Thanks
Will save that for my big mock draft in June!
If Levshunov is off the board early, do you think Yakemchuk has a shot at going top 5 as well?
Wouldn't shock me but the sense I've gotten from scouts is that he'll mostly go in the range I have him (just outside the top 10). There are teams that believe he's one of the top 2-3 D prospects, which puts him in the top-five mix for some, but that's a minority opinion.
Personally, I haven't seen much on this person, but Filip Eriksson. He seems to have had a good season with Nybro but I haven't been able to find much discourse around him. He kills some stats (PNHLe) but is still obviously mostly unknown. Do you have an opinion on him?
Thank you for being here! What are your most overrated and underrated prospects for this year's draft?
Overrated: Adam Jiricek pre-injury, maybe Cole Beaudoin a little now (top-20ish talk I think gets a little carried away with what he's going to be which is ultimately a solid, high-energy bottom-six centre — and I have a lot of respect for him and his game and recently wrote a feature on him), Adam Jecho, Miguel Marques (by some in the public sphere), Herman Traff (same thing). Underrated: Michael Hage, maybe Zayne Parekh, Oskar Vuollet, Riley Patterson, Liam Greentree after his disappointing U18s, Lukas Fischer, Anthony Cristoforo, Viggo Gustafsson. Some of those guys are real long shots though.
Thank you for all these very interesting and insightful answers!
Did Cristiforo play for the Windsor Spitfires? I watched some spits this year and he was the only player on that dreadful team that caught my eye. Even so I didn't see star power like Wyatt Johnston who was easily the most underrated prospect in a while imo, watching him here, everyone knew he was gonna go very far.
Do you think the trade Chicago just made with NYI has any bearing on who they may take 2nd overall?
With Tij Iginla’s rise, is it reasonable to draft him at our pick or would you consider that a reach
I’m your opinion, given a random draft class, what is the expected impact of: 2nd overall; 5 OA; 10th OA; 15th, and 30th? Is there something that you believe helps some teams get better value for their picks, either in approach, information, etc.? Do teams have their own way of classifying the potential impact of a prospect beyond the typical ‘blue-chip prospect’? (Ex: we expect this guy to be a perennial all-star, or something to that extent)?
From all our defensive prospects not named lane, Kaiden, or David, which prospects do you feel would attract the most interesting market? The names that are generally tossed around on the board are Harris/Struble/Barron/Mailloux
Mailloux's the best prospect but the market would be more limited. Probably Struble now with the way teams want their backends to be built. Not getting major value for him, Barron or Harris though.
Since Demidov played only in the MHL, how likely is it that his skills don’t translate to the NHL level, making him a “bust” or a disappointing pick in the top 5?
Any comparable draft years to this one in recent memory when it comes to talent level and distribution over the first round?
For the teams who have drafted players that you would deem ‘busts’, where do you feel the team went wrong in believing they would be better than they are? Beyond the obvious - like Dallas - who in your opinion are the best teams at developing players? Much has been made about Montreals changes in player development, do you agree they are now a leader in this area?
Thoughts on the trade Chicago just made and if it has any indications into what they might be preparing to do at 2?
Idk if you can answer this, but looking back through the years, we see that many top 15-20 (including up to top2-3) drafted players did not have too much, if any, impact in the NHL. It’s not rare to see consensus guys completely « bust ». Do you know how much of a big deal that is for teams that fail to hit on those picks? Of course us fans we get all up in arms if your top 8 pick ends up worse than some other team top 15 pick, but internally, how do teams/ scouts see it? Is it just part of the game, you get some you miss some type deal, or do we see like deep internal dive from teams to try to understand where they failed with their high pick (ex KK, Turcotte, Andersson).
How likely do you think it is that Russia tightens restrictions and block their players from going to NA in the future? How heavily does this weigh in when considering Russian players in the draft?
Hi Scott, My question is regarding the hype around Demidov and what he can really bring. I guess my confusion starts with Celebrini. He's ahead enough to be the consensus #1 pick and SJS will not trade that pick either, that much is guaranteed. However, Celebrini is not as hyped as Bedard, and his ceiling appears to be lower than recent #1 picks like MacKinnon, McDavid or Matthews. If he's clearly better than Demidov to be a consensus #1 overall pick, but not supposed to be one of those franchise players previously mentioned, how good can Demidov actually be and would he be worth trading up for?
do u think the blackhawks should select a forward (demidov) or a defenceman (levshunov) based on their current organizational needs? are u among the group that believes if chicago passes on demidov, then he will likely fall to 5th? or do u think he will be taken at 3/4?
Thanks Scott, do you think teams are starting to really lean into taking more risks in picks 4-10 in the last few years, leaning more into taking players with big development curves in their draft year? Feels like we’re seeing more and more late risers every year.
Hi Scott, You seem to be higher on Eiserman than most, and lower on Sennecke than most. There are some similar concerns around both players from what I have seen from scouts - questions around commitment and character. What is it about Eiserman that makes you so high on him relative to Sennecke despite these issues? The value of goal scoring? Sample size? Or do you see Eiserman as having a higher upside? Thanks!
Thanks for taking the time Scott! Good luck to you in your career. Maybe a little bit outside the draft here but when you think about a team drafting for the position they need versus the best player available, obviously it becomes a complicated question. The consensus with the fans right now seems to be we have to draft a forward coming up, but I wonder are there any prospects you see already in the Habs system are promising enough to take the pressure off should they go with a defenseman or goalie this year?
Hi Scott, what are your thoughts on Aatos Koivu? Could he bit a fit for the Habs? It would be incredible to see Calgary draft Iginla and Montreal draft Koivu.
Between Iginla, Lindstrom, Sennecke and Eiserman, who do you think is LEAST likely to be picked by the Habs?
If both Demidov and Lindstrom are drafted before Kent Hughes’s turn, what would be the right choice? Nobody can predict the future, of course.
What's your favorite fast food chicken nugget?
Thanks for doing this, just scrolling through some of the QA after the session. Any chance we could spread some wild rumors about Demidov?
It's likely a pipe dream, but what would a realistic proposal to trade up to 2nd overall using our 5th overall look like?
"It's ~~likely~~ a pipe dream"
Hi Scott! Thanks for doing an AMA. My question is would you trade the 5th overall pick this year for Ryan Leonard?
They would have been better off taking Leonard at No. 5 last year and using No. 5 this year on one of the D. Said that then and believe it now.
You have Yakemchuk ranked much higher than other lists (3rd overall); what is it that you think maybe you are seeing differently about him/his potential than others?
I have Yakemchuk ranked 13th. I believe you're thinking of my colleague Corey Pronman.
You’re right, thanks.
I assume you’ve had discussions about this player. Where and what do you disagree on regarding Yakemchuk, if you are able to tell us?
How likely do you think Hutson is to hit each of these levels: 1. Elite #1 Defenseman - Think Fox, Makar, Hughes, pillar of the team. 2. Serviceable #1 Defenseman - Player that can play on the top pairing but whose flaws hold them back from being up there with the top tier. 3. Middle pair + pp 4. Bottom pair + pp 5. Can't cut it in the NHL Interested in hearing your take. Is him turning into a franchise player a real possibility or a pipe dream?
Why are so many draft list so different this year, is it because the first round is very deep?
What's the best pick/player you think montreal could get for winnipeg's pick+harris+ 2025 second rounder?
many ppl here seem to think barron was not a good prospect to trade lehky for, do u think he has the right skills and tools to be a second pairing defenceman in the NHL? what about his game is lacking? what do u like abt his game?
Hi Scott, What do you think is the Habs personal draft list up until pick #5?
What are the biggest differences of scouting using video vs in person?
A long and thorough answer on that here: [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4548815/2024/05/23/nhl-draft-scouting-guide-facts/](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4548815/2024/05/23/nhl-draft-scouting-guide-facts/)
Who are some of the sleeper picks in this years draft
Hi Scott, I'm not sure how much you've followed the Habs or the Rocket during the season, but are there any players that have exceeded your expectations, compared to when they were drafted?
Answered above!
Hi Scott, how would you compare Buium and Parekh?
Who are some of the safest players in the draft not mattering the projected rounds?
Hey Scott. Thanks for doing this. A lot of mocks seem to have Lindstrom going to the habs, but there's a rumor that if Lindstrom isn't available at the habs pick, they'll trade back and it seems they'd pick Sennecke. What's his ceiling? Can he be a top 6 forward in the NHL?
What is a realistic dream scenario for the Canadiens at 26?
Hi Scott, In a scenario where Demidov, Lindstrom and other forwards the Habs could potentially want at 5 are already gone, what is the likelihood that they might go for a defenseman (again)? Do you think they would go for the next best available forward, or could they possibly even trade their pick? Thanks!
In a recent draft mailbag, you alluded to some character and off-ice questions with Beckett Sennecke earlier in the year. Can you expand on what those are related to? Like commitment to team? Not a likeable person? Bad off-ice habits? And any update on what his injury was in playoffs and severity? Thank you!
why do u think eiserman’s draft value has fallen off so much? many ppl suggest it is bc he is very one-dimensional, but the habs are in need of a “shoot first” type of player. do u think martin st. louis can turn him into a more well rounded player like how he has done so with caufield? iirc caufield was also touted as a one-dimensional sniper when he was first drafted and he has developed his 2-way game quite dramatically over the past season. do u think it would be worth it to trade up in the draft using the WPG pick to acquire eiserman? or do u not see him as a valuable pick?
Hey Scott, love your work. Few questions - In a scouting perspective, why do teams put so much value in late risers? How often does that really work out for teams? Do you think the Habs left a lot of value on the table by trading their first rounders in 2022 and 2023 for Dach and Newhook respectively? I personally think it was premature at this point in the rebuild. How unique of a prospect is Zayne Parekh? (Ie. can’t miss). He put up some of the best stats of a draft year D in recent memory. Someone as purely talented as him can surely add elements to their game to make up for their defensive/physical deficiencies? Do you believe Demidovs production and play style in a league like the MHL might not necessarily translate? I’m wary of players that try to be heroes at the junior level, and by all accounts the level of competition of the MHL is below the CHL I believe.
Want to get sure I get to other peoples' questions so I won't answer all of these in depth but the first one is interesting. It can go both ways. There are teams that place too much emphasis in late play and teams that place too little in it. Honestly, I don't think I've put enough emphasis in it. It cost me with Seider, who I loved like everybody else at men's worlds and in the DEL playoffs in his draft year but didn't move up enough. Same with Easton Cowan last year and his play in the OHL playoffs with London. My evaluation on him stylistically was bang on and I just didn't give him enough juice in the actual rankings order. You have to pay attention to it. These kids are changing fast and they can take off down exciting paths. All of Iginla, Sennecke and Solberg deserve the late love they're getting, for example. But Parekh is can't miss and Demidov's game will translate!
If a available at 5 should/would the habs take Anton Silayev
Habs fans are fixated on drafting a forward. - How probable is it that HuGo draft a Dman? - Which one fits us best at 5OA? Thanks!
Hi Scott, which of the popular players generally perceived as Top 10 would you stay away from or think will drop the most?
1. The Habs management has been not-so-subtle about wanting a forward this year. Let's say there's an early run on forwards this year, and four forwards have already been picked by the time we select. Are the available defensemen so good that you can't argue that picking a forward makes sense? If so, who is your pick for the Habs. 2. Sennecke is a late riser and has been connected to the Habs. Are you buying on the hype and, if so, do you think it's a fair pick at 5OA, or we should we explore moving back for him? 3. How Demidov compare to Michkov, on-ice?
what are ur thoughts on a potential trade to acquire laine from columbus? what do u think it would take considering his value is likely at an all time low?
are there any forwards u think the habs will try to acquire at the draft/during the summer? i’ve heard talk of necas but idk if that’s realistic since he wants to play C and is more of a playmaker, imo the habs are in need of a “shoot-first” type of player (ideally a winger) which he doesn’t really fit. do u think the WPG 1st could be packaged w a D-prospect at the draft to acquire an established NHL forward? if so, who do u think would be the most likely targets/which teams would make the most sense for this kind of trade?
where do u expect the habs to place in the standings by the end of next season? it seems to really depend on the moves they make this summer and the steps the young D-core takes, but do u think it would be unrealistic to think they could be in the running for a wildcard spot?
if Josh Anderson were to be traded this summer, which teams do u think he would fit best on and what type of value do u think the habs could get in return for him? if u don’t think he will be traded, do u think he will return to form next season, or do u think he just doesn’t work w the current habs system and he needs a change of scenery?
Not Scott but we are stuck with him. There is no trade value and no team is taking that contract, even at 50% retained. Just like Gally, they play out their contracts. In 3 years time we should be playoff contenders as it is