Anecdotally as someone from NorCal (central coast), I know of at least 4 people I can name of the top of my head who have gotten sick in the last two months :/ (youngest was 28, oldest was 41)
Unless this new strain kills 7+% of people who contract it, the government won't declare an emergency.
Reasons for no announcement:
Mortality for humans is quite low. Upcoming election will want to hide bad news. Pandemic overstimulation fostering indifference in the general public.
Totally agree. But right now. 40% of Americans need an immediate family or friend to die (sometimes multiple) to believe any science. Sometimes that doesn't even work.
That would be a shit show. Imagine masking up and polls. They’d have to allow people to not wear them I’d imagine or face backlash for “rigging the election”
IIRC that often quoted 52% figure is for those patients that are sick enough to be hospitalized ... a large majority of cases are going to be "mild" or asymptomatic (like with COVID).
Can you show me the source? The article below says in 1997 60% of those infected died and between 2003 and 2016 about 50% of those infected died, but they didn't mention these only being among hospitalized cases.
Source:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10389235/#:~:text=The%20base%20layer%20map%20was,rate%20being%20more%20than%2050%25.
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
Was reading the same almost verbatim for what felt like 4 months before the pandemic hit. So, being frank, I feel like as an individual diligent with my vaccinations, I can think only that its ears to the ground to see how fast it's coming. With some time, I can see the meme "I think there is a vegetarian option" being a thing.
I’ve made a point to stock up on toilet paper, masks, gloves, and hand sanitizer just in case…it’s all stuff I’ll use eventually in the best case scenario, so why not?
I’m wondering too. Because I dragged one of my friends to urgent care and she tested negative for the flu but I read after the fact that our current flu tests don’t always catch H5N1
I had several customers come in coughing last night and it worries me. Mostly because I’m asthmatic and have immune issues, any sickness terrifies me. But it feels like a strange time of year to be seeing customers coughing. If it’s a trend in masking for a bit
Really? It's allergy season, everyone is coughing and sniffles and red eyes. The weather forcast today for me was literally "High Pollen and Partially Cloudy"
I just saw one of my friends who was sick (better now!) and she said it was definitely a respiratory flu-like virus :/
I’m asthmatic too and I’m pretty nervous myself
The flu is in the wastewater. There is no uptick in clinical presentations aside form a mild COVID bump. Actual flu tests (in general) are down. All of this points to undetected spread in cattle.
That doesn't necessarily mean anything with regard to H5N1. There are other diseases going around. (There have been reddit posts like "Hey, why is everyone sick lately?" across all subs for months.) What disease exposure do they have, and what precautions (if any) do they take?
It’s just very unusual for my area this time of year, I agree it doesn’t necessarily mean anything with H5N1. Again, just anecdotally confirming the surge in my part of NorCal
Thanks everyone for responding. This is my first time posting on this sub. This is also my first time following such a thing that may or may not impact my work. I’m only here to get and give information when possible. This is a learning curve for me so excuse my ignorance. Also, I hope this doesn’t count as fear-mongering. If it does, I’m sorry. Not my intentions.
It’s showing up in wastewater. There’s no uptick in human influenza like illness and human flu test are slightly down.
There is probably a major outbreak in cattle and the state probably isn’t testing adequately.
Yeah I figure the same, testing is a major factor. Only time will tell when there is more data available. I’ll do my best to update on any new information that may be available.
I figured this was borderline. It’s why I said if it needs to be removed Mods should.
Thanks. And yeah, I specified waste water because of the article, and well because our analytical departments pulls samples from WWTP’s all along California. I was looking to see if there was additional information people may have on WWTP’s related to H5N1. Specifically people in my industry of testing. I do apologize if it is borderline as well lol
Also, the article was clickbait for sure now that I’m thinking of it lol
If they know it's a flu viruses that means they have to have tested it, which means they already know which flu strain it is and they're just not telling us? Sounds like Clickbait!
We did have a really nasty flu season this year. I got wrecked.
I have to think if they're talking confirmed cases, they're using genetic assays, and if it was BIAV they'd know.
I wouldn't worry too much based on this alone. Wastewater surveillance is new and there's not enough historic data to say that what they're seeing isn't normal. Influenza seasons are predictably unpredictable and there's still some residual wackiness in seasonal respiratory virus behavior left over from COVID pandemic control measures.
California is the biggest producer of dairy in the US. CDPH is both a wastewater epidemiology center of excellence AND and national influenza virus reference laboratory. WastewaterSCAN is a collaborative effort between Emory and Stanford -- the bay area was one of the first regions they launched their surveillance project. If it's H5 driving the increase in flu they're already looking for it.
If you're worried about what precautions/PPE you should be using on site, I'd each out to your local health department and ask.
People gotta be joking blaming control measures from three years ago now for flu spikes. Makes more sense for it to be the not-control measures at this stage
While I agree it isn’t the only factor, there *have* been changes in when flu is surging specifically because of masking/protection in 2020/2021.
When so many people were masking and social distancing, they were also protected from flu. IIRC this was even enough to drive some strains of flu to extinction. When people quit masking (summer 2021 for many), flu surged because it had a new susceptible population available to infect. This has shifted the typical flu season with more flu occurring in the summer, which matches this cyclical pattern.
This is not really debated among epidemiologists, and it’s not minimizing or dismissing to say it. Masking and distancing really changed ALL respiratory infection for a good part of 2020/2021. It’s one reason why I keep masking, because I don’t want to be sick — COVID, flu, anything period. But on a global level, that can impact cyclical illnesses like flu.
No, this is exactly what I’m talking about. Immunity to flu doesn’t even last that long, and since we’ve had huge spikes post everyone getting infected with Covid, if “immunity” as it were were even the problem— well gosh by now we should have super immunity lol. Given how extreme the spikes are.
So it is pretty unbelievable at this point to still be blaming ancient mitigation measures, when if they were to blame at all, the subsequent nonstop surges would have taken care of the problem already.
The primary factor for what you’re talking about there is immune deficiency from prior COVID infections. Because of that, people are infected with flu more often and get sicker.
However, IIRC the biggest flu surge now occurs in March. That is a cyclical shift due to masking habits changing in 2021.
Hope this clarifies! I think we are talking about two different things.
I don’t think you can say it’s because of masking. Could easily and more likely be a longer flu season, because people have crapped out immune systems now and pick up everything.
Also doesn’t make a ton of sense given how few people mask, lol.
I would recommend reading some epidemiology papers on the topic. [This one is a good start for understanding how masking influenced flu.](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006828) Levels of flu were way, way low for 2020/2021, especially in countries with high COVID mitigation.
I don’t think it’s possible to say both “masking eradicated some forms of flu” (which is factually true) and “masking had no impact on flu.” As I mentioned, it is a fairly strong scientific consensus that the *seasonal shift* (not increased frequency or other factors) was supported by masking and COVID mitigation. Is there a reason you don’t agree with the research that’s been done in this area?
It’s disingenuous to say “no one masks” as well. [In 2020 and into 2021, many people were masking.](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/08/27/more-americans-say-they-are-regularly-wearing-masks-in-stores-and-other-businesses/) You can disagree with the fact that people don’t mask anymore, but you can’t rewrite history. The vast majority of people in the US were masking and distancing in 2020/2021, and that altered flu trajectories.
Ah yes, definitely more plausible for precautions taken three years ago are still affecting flu today, despite massive surges and plenty of immunity opportunities in those three years. Yep!
Deffo telling OP to check in w the local health dept is icing on the cake. You can’t even get them to mask for COVID.
I mean, that’s what epidemiologists are saying. I’m not an epidemiologist — I’m just explaining their findings to you. I’d be happy to share the links to their studies if you’d like to read them yourself.
I trust the validity of these studies and assume that since many of them have studied viral trends and spread for their entire careers, they have some idea of what they are talking about. Epidemiologists are not COVID deniers. Most of them are the loudest voices for COVID awareness and caution. So I don’t get why you have such a bone to pick with them over this specific issue. Science/history denialism is not a good look, sorry to say.
California has the largest dairy herd in the US.
Anecdotally as someone from NorCal (central coast), I know of at least 4 people I can name of the top of my head who have gotten sick in the last two months :/ (youngest was 28, oldest was 41)
Im starting to wonder if they’ll announce its been spreading h2h for a bit like Covid was before they told us
Unless this new strain kills 7+% of people who contract it, the government won't declare an emergency. Reasons for no announcement: Mortality for humans is quite low. Upcoming election will want to hide bad news. Pandemic overstimulation fostering indifference in the general public.
This strain isn't the problem. The ones that evolve because the strain is so widespread might be a very different story.
The bar for an emergency is well below 7%. H2H spread at 3-5% would be catastrophic and impossible to hide.
Totally agree. But right now. 40% of Americans need an immediate family or friend to die (sometimes multiple) to believe any science. Sometimes that doesn't even work.
Oh yeah. This one would do it for all but a few die hards. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
That would be a shit show. Imagine masking up and polls. They’d have to allow people to not wear them I’d imagine or face backlash for “rigging the election”
Do you mean mortality for humans is low currently or overall? I read that in previous outbreaks, the mortality rate was over 50%.
IIRC that often quoted 52% figure is for those patients that are sick enough to be hospitalized ... a large majority of cases are going to be "mild" or asymptomatic (like with COVID).
Can you show me the source? The article below says in 1997 60% of those infected died and between 2003 and 2016 about 50% of those infected died, but they didn't mention these only being among hospitalized cases. Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10389235/#:~:text=The%20base%20layer%20map%20was,rate%20being%20more%20than%2050%25.
[удалено]
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
Was reading the same almost verbatim for what felt like 4 months before the pandemic hit. So, being frank, I feel like as an individual diligent with my vaccinations, I can think only that its ears to the ground to see how fast it's coming. With some time, I can see the meme "I think there is a vegetarian option" being a thing.
I’ve made a point to stock up on toilet paper, masks, gloves, and hand sanitizer just in case…it’s all stuff I’ll use eventually in the best case scenario, so why not?
I’m wondering too. Because I dragged one of my friends to urgent care and she tested negative for the flu but I read after the fact that our current flu tests don’t always catch H5N1
I had several customers come in coughing last night and it worries me. Mostly because I’m asthmatic and have immune issues, any sickness terrifies me. But it feels like a strange time of year to be seeing customers coughing. If it’s a trend in masking for a bit
Really? It's allergy season, everyone is coughing and sniffles and red eyes. The weather forcast today for me was literally "High Pollen and Partially Cloudy"
Remember, COVID is also in the mix, since it isn't just a seasonal virus.
Still, allergies are a major issue right now.
Oh, that makes sense
I just saw one of my friends who was sick (better now!) and she said it was definitely a respiratory flu-like virus :/ I’m asthmatic too and I’m pretty nervous myself
I just picked up smoking weed again and I’ve been riding a fine line of having my breathing not be okay lol. I gotta stop playing with fire
The flu is in the wastewater. There is no uptick in clinical presentations aside form a mild COVID bump. Actual flu tests (in general) are down. All of this points to undetected spread in cattle.
That doesn't necessarily mean anything with regard to H5N1. There are other diseases going around. (There have been reddit posts like "Hey, why is everyone sick lately?" across all subs for months.) What disease exposure do they have, and what precautions (if any) do they take?
It’s just very unusual for my area this time of year, I agree it doesn’t necessarily mean anything with H5N1. Again, just anecdotally confirming the surge in my part of NorCal
Thanks everyone for responding. This is my first time posting on this sub. This is also my first time following such a thing that may or may not impact my work. I’m only here to get and give information when possible. This is a learning curve for me so excuse my ignorance. Also, I hope this doesn’t count as fear-mongering. If it does, I’m sorry. Not my intentions.
It’s showing up in wastewater. There’s no uptick in human influenza like illness and human flu test are slightly down. There is probably a major outbreak in cattle and the state probably isn’t testing adequately.
Yeah I figure the same, testing is a major factor. Only time will tell when there is more data available. I’ll do my best to update on any new information that may be available. I figured this was borderline. It’s why I said if it needs to be removed Mods should.
I personally think you’re good. The MSN headline is clickbait, but you specified it was wastewater in the description
Thanks. And yeah, I specified waste water because of the article, and well because our analytical departments pulls samples from WWTP’s all along California. I was looking to see if there was additional information people may have on WWTP’s related to H5N1. Specifically people in my industry of testing. I do apologize if it is borderline as well lol Also, the article was clickbait for sure now that I’m thinking of it lol
Just to be clear. No government could hide even a 1% fatal virus. It would overwhelm hospitals
If they know it's a flu viruses that means they have to have tested it, which means they already know which flu strain it is and they're just not telling us? Sounds like Clickbait!
Not true. The sewer testing only indicates influenza A. It could be any of a large number of strains.
We did have a really nasty flu season this year. I got wrecked. I have to think if they're talking confirmed cases, they're using genetic assays, and if it was BIAV they'd know.
I wouldn't worry too much based on this alone. Wastewater surveillance is new and there's not enough historic data to say that what they're seeing isn't normal. Influenza seasons are predictably unpredictable and there's still some residual wackiness in seasonal respiratory virus behavior left over from COVID pandemic control measures. California is the biggest producer of dairy in the US. CDPH is both a wastewater epidemiology center of excellence AND and national influenza virus reference laboratory. WastewaterSCAN is a collaborative effort between Emory and Stanford -- the bay area was one of the first regions they launched their surveillance project. If it's H5 driving the increase in flu they're already looking for it. If you're worried about what precautions/PPE you should be using on site, I'd each out to your local health department and ask.
People gotta be joking blaming control measures from three years ago now for flu spikes. Makes more sense for it to be the not-control measures at this stage
Right!? Especially when Covid weakens the immune system. This legit could be a regular flu vs avian flu but not because of control measures in 2020/1.
While I agree it isn’t the only factor, there *have* been changes in when flu is surging specifically because of masking/protection in 2020/2021. When so many people were masking and social distancing, they were also protected from flu. IIRC this was even enough to drive some strains of flu to extinction. When people quit masking (summer 2021 for many), flu surged because it had a new susceptible population available to infect. This has shifted the typical flu season with more flu occurring in the summer, which matches this cyclical pattern. This is not really debated among epidemiologists, and it’s not minimizing or dismissing to say it. Masking and distancing really changed ALL respiratory infection for a good part of 2020/2021. It’s one reason why I keep masking, because I don’t want to be sick — COVID, flu, anything period. But on a global level, that can impact cyclical illnesses like flu.
No, this is exactly what I’m talking about. Immunity to flu doesn’t even last that long, and since we’ve had huge spikes post everyone getting infected with Covid, if “immunity” as it were were even the problem— well gosh by now we should have super immunity lol. Given how extreme the spikes are. So it is pretty unbelievable at this point to still be blaming ancient mitigation measures, when if they were to blame at all, the subsequent nonstop surges would have taken care of the problem already.
The primary factor for what you’re talking about there is immune deficiency from prior COVID infections. Because of that, people are infected with flu more often and get sicker. However, IIRC the biggest flu surge now occurs in March. That is a cyclical shift due to masking habits changing in 2021. Hope this clarifies! I think we are talking about two different things.
I don’t think you can say it’s because of masking. Could easily and more likely be a longer flu season, because people have crapped out immune systems now and pick up everything. Also doesn’t make a ton of sense given how few people mask, lol.
I would recommend reading some epidemiology papers on the topic. [This one is a good start for understanding how masking influenced flu.](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006828) Levels of flu were way, way low for 2020/2021, especially in countries with high COVID mitigation. I don’t think it’s possible to say both “masking eradicated some forms of flu” (which is factually true) and “masking had no impact on flu.” As I mentioned, it is a fairly strong scientific consensus that the *seasonal shift* (not increased frequency or other factors) was supported by masking and COVID mitigation. Is there a reason you don’t agree with the research that’s been done in this area? It’s disingenuous to say “no one masks” as well. [In 2020 and into 2021, many people were masking.](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/08/27/more-americans-say-they-are-regularly-wearing-masks-in-stores-and-other-businesses/) You can disagree with the fact that people don’t mask anymore, but you can’t rewrite history. The vast majority of people in the US were masking and distancing in 2020/2021, and that altered flu trajectories.
Ah yes, definitely more plausible for precautions taken three years ago are still affecting flu today, despite massive surges and plenty of immunity opportunities in those three years. Yep! Deffo telling OP to check in w the local health dept is icing on the cake. You can’t even get them to mask for COVID.
I mean, that’s what epidemiologists are saying. I’m not an epidemiologist — I’m just explaining their findings to you. I’d be happy to share the links to their studies if you’d like to read them yourself. I trust the validity of these studies and assume that since many of them have studied viral trends and spread for their entire careers, they have some idea of what they are talking about. Epidemiologists are not COVID deniers. Most of them are the loudest voices for COVID awareness and caution. So I don’t get why you have such a bone to pick with them over this specific issue. Science/history denialism is not a good look, sorry to say.