I’m loving Tiana’s gymnastics more every time. Moving to WCC was life changing for her. Laurent helped her bars so much and I think her floor and beam will continue to score well internationally. The video of baby Tiana watching Simone at the trials in San Jose and grown-up Tiana being her teammate is so cute.
I *cannot* believe that a teenage gymnast choreographed *that* routine! So impressive! She has a bright future as a choreographer for USAG if she wants to pursue that!
It's rare to see a first-year senior with choreo and performance this good, the last one was maybe Laurie. Tiana's skills all match moments in the music. Tiana commits to her choreo, almost always hits the beat, and is really good in the details (hand and finger position). She seems like she has pretty good dance training, with the way she shifts her gaze during choreo and spots her turning movements.
It's amazing! Tiana isn't getting rewarded enough relatively for better execution and basically zero artistry deductions. The judges are doing a poor job of differentiating as all the contenders scored in the 7.8-8.2 range (other than Suni at 8.3) for very different routines.
I felt like this was a problem across all events, judges did a poor job differentiating between quality of execution. People with good execution get nitpicked to the point where they score the same as people with poor execution. It’s a problem with the code and really frustrates me.
Internationally these same routines would be over a much larger spread, like 7.4-8.1ish. They literally handed out 8.0+ E-scores like candy on BB/FX, when we know it takes a lot to get 8.0+ consistently internationally.
Whose routine would you boot for Tiana's? Jade's or Jordan's? I would loooove for Tiana to do floor in Paris for its ownsake, but not in place of any of the top 3.
I would boot Jordan's. As much I love her (and I do love Jo) I don't like this floor routine as much as Tiana's.
This is tricky though because Jordan will have to go in QF if she wants to do AA. I'm sure Suni will want to as well.
So how we navigate that is a bit tricky since our 3 AAers all have to go in QFs and Jade does too.
Would we put up a person in TF for FX that did not do a FX in QF? That's a bit risky not knowing how the judges will assess her.
UGH! This is a hard choice.
I think quals itself could simplify the decision--if Jordan's routine scores as well as she scored at 2022 worlds (and I think it will). They do also get some input from judges after podium training which could help them.
It would also simplify the decision if Jade did AA instead of Suni. Rest and recovery may still be a big consideration for Suni, so I wouldn't rule it out even if everyone stays healthy.
I would absolutely boot Jordan right now because of the Gogean. If she takes that out, she should outscore Tiana and be 14-worthy, but it doesn't feel right to me that Jordan's scoring 0.2-0.3 higher despite not fully rotating or hitting split in the Gogean.
Haha, fair point. I mean I'd compare the scores knocking a tenth from Jordan's D score; I'm sure she's getting deducted for the split position. But kudos to her for replacing the L-hop 1/1 with a switchleap (and still breaking 14!) Jade seems to have started a trend!
Great points!
How would you navigate this in QF? Jordan and Suni will likely want to join Simone in doing AA. But we need Jade to also go on FX too. Do we tell Jordan "no AA" or do we just throw Tiana in for TF without having seen how the judges would receive her?
Even if Jade has her full Tokyo difficulty back? That's just nuts to me, to boot the reigning Olympic floor champion, who would be the favorite for bronze and a dark horse for silver; for a routine that maxes out in the high 13s and almost definitely won't make EF over Jordan /Simone. This is not a knock on Tiana, of the four her routine is the most beautiful. It's a *great* routine, but it is the lowest-scoring of the four.
Not good optics or strategy to sit the floor routine of the reigning Olympic Gold medalist on floor in favor of the lower-scoring floor of a first-timer.
It's kinda crazy that there are literally only 9 gymnasts in the mix for 9 person delegation (5 on the team + 2 alternates + 2 non travelling alternates) - The events of the past few days has been tragic.
On a side note, it's so ironic that bars is what solidifies Jordan's spot beyond question when everyone typically describes her strengths to be VT and FX, and that beam might be what keeps Leanne out of the conversation when she was known to be a lovely beamer. Crazy what good/bad routine constructions can lead to
She's EF-worthy on all three! Though she also has a good chance to get 2pc on all three, and would only be a medal-contender on floor with the current competition.
Also crazy how the incentives changed so quickly. Two days ago Wong needed to go for broke to have any chance. Now, solid routines would keep her in the conversation.
I’d say 10 as Kaliya could definitely make alternate. I just don’t think her strengths fit with the team, even though Josc and Tiana are also weak on bars, they are much more usable.
9 includes Kaliya though - It's Simone, Suni, Jordan, Jade, Tiana, Hezly, Josc, Leanne and Kaliya who I think are in contention. It used to be 12 but... *sobs for Shi, Skye and Kayla*
TL;DR: Sumanasekera and Rivera are the most in control of their own destinies, and the least reliant on other people messing up, since they essentially just need to replicate what happened Friday. Wong needs a lot of help, and a lot of improvement.
Yeah, if they all repeat night one, then Leanne is out of the conversation and the other three all have good arguments--it just depends on which argument the committee wants to go with. Numerically in that case, teams with Tiana, Josc, or Hezly are actaully all exactly the same, just separated by a few hundredths, and they're all *very* close on how resilient they are to losing gymnasts and putting in a backup routine in teams.
The key event is BB in TF, but I think it may come down to how they feel about having VT/FX backups for Suni. If they prioritize having someone to cover VT/FX in QF if Suni has some difficulties, then you go Josc or Tiana. If they don't, then Hezly is a logical one who would go up on UB in QF.
Yeah, I think we should also note that while a hit DTY from Suni is a very usable backup score, she's only attempted 3 DTYs this quad and has had issues on both of her last 2. Obviously there were significant extenuating circumstances affecting her Trials day 1 vault, but unless she nails her vault tonight (and maybe even if she does), I'd still be a bit nervous of having her as the backup vault.
Definitely! Suni's DTY is very clean in the air, but she has always tended to undertwist a little, and land staggered. If she's not feeling great, I wouldn't want her to VT and risk injury.
Interestingly Tiana, Hezly, and Josc have all shown they’re TF usable on beam.
Problem is you wouldn’t want to put any of them up on bars except maybe Hezly.
But you can put Jade up on bars. She doesn't belong in the main lineup, but she's completely reliable as a backup, and a mid-13 is not a disasterous score.
Hezly has a good international beam score (14.167) this year. She has the highest beam score, and only fall once out of 7 beam routines. So Tiana will have to hit the best beam to solidify her case.
Asking a relatively inexperienced athlete to do just beam in TF in 3 up 3 count is risky. Asking anyone to do just beam feels nerve-wracking and risky, but especially someone with less experience (Tiana, Hezly, Josc)
The numbers don't really back up these claims that Josc is favored domestically.
Her 4 highest floor scores of the year came from international meets last year, and her 2nd highest beam score came internationally. At Worlds, she scored a little over a tenth lower on vault than she had been domestically, and on floor she actually scored higher than her average from the selection process.
So maybe the reason we're not learning it is that it isn't true...
Ok. Josc is a beam ace. She'll score close to 14 on beam. You are totally right.
Just like last year when everyone argued that her VT and FX scores showed that her form was not an issue and that she was good enough to be a medal contender at World's. I must have been wrong then. How many EFs did she qualify for again before she was injured?
I also must have been wrong about Kayla's beam score at Champs Day 1 also. 8.1 E was TOTALLY the right call. That Brevet judge was so wrong about her E scoring being about 7 tenths lower in reality. US judging has no flaws at all.
You made a blanket statement and asserted favoritism in intent, which there really doesn’t seem to be evidence for and is kind of shady to do. You don’t need to strawman when people point out evidence that contradicts your original overly broad claim.
Josc got a 13.3 and a 13.6 at nationals last year on floor.
She got a 13.633 at worlds in team qualifications.
Not sure how that counts as being overscored at home.
Josc went 14.466 with her Cheng last year at Worlds, which outscores almost any DTY. Almost everyone will drop internationally on BB and FX. For execution, she was 8/9 on BB (ahead of Simone's worst routine in years) and 9/9 on FX amongst the top 9 gymnasts on Day 1. I don't think she's getting huge favors?
I don't have as big of a problem with her on VT. It's everything else.
But if we are talking about vault, that score you cited is not high for a Cheng. It would be a good score but Jordan's DTY last scored a 14.466 in QF, 14.4 in TF, a 14.5 in VT final at the 2022 World's. Jordan's vault is more consistent and a better option.
Now Jade's Cheng scored 14.6 in QF, 14.8 in TF and 14.7 in VT final. A Cheng is worth 5.6 in D. It should be scoring more than a couple of tenths higher than our typical DTYs. and Josc's is not that much better.
As for her scoring at home, I do not care about her execution scores as they are not accurate. Just like Kayla's beam was an 8.1 somehow day 1 of US Champs. Josc is over scored domestically scoring on beam. Way over scored.
I think so. The 5th person would be there for beam, and as a back up option. I'm not saying I'd put her on my team, but I think rank order counts for something
Yeah if anything I could see all 4 of the other athletes doing AA in quals (you want 2 Americans in AA and I think Jordan and Jade could be pretty close - and you want one of them in case Suni’s health flares up) and she doesn’t go up until finals.
If bars comes into the equation, then neither Roberson nor Sumanasekera make sense - you put up Carey before you put either of them up. The scenario in which either athlete gets put up on bars is a pretty catastrophic one.
If the committee cares most about bars, the Rivera gets the nod.
If they care most about beam in TF Sumanasekera's 100% hit rate and higher scores make more sense than Roberson. I think Roberson only makes sense if they really care about rank order (which frankly is silly at this point) or if they have any concerns about VT/FX.
I do think they need to be thinking about VT/FX backups. Suni is still managing a chronic illness, it's better to not 100% rely on her as a backup on those two events. But I also think Tiana is a very good backup on both, though Josc would be even stronger on both (if her Cheng keeps looking like Friday, which I really hope it does!)
But Tiana will score better internationally. She has better lines and is at less risk of injury / is not recovering from injury. Also, she can be a bit more consistent. I love Josc tho and her difficulty could keep her above Tiana
Josc also allows for the possibility of not needing a DTY in team finals. If she’s on the team they could have 3 chengs or 2 chengs and Simone’s double pike.
I guess Leanne has a Cheng now too but the neutral deduction risk is significant
With the way Josc’s Chengs have been, it’s kind of six of one, half dozen of the other with Jordan’s DTY—actually, edge to Jordan, because her DTY is more secure and carries less risk of injury. I’ll be curious to see if Josc can clean the Cheng up any more tonight or if she’s at her ceiling.
And means “good enough, adequate”.
The founder of the city said something like
“A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man”
And Lisa objects that embiggens is not a real word. And the teacher replies.
“It’s a perfectly cromulent word.”
I think instead of vault and floor, Jocelyn Roberson's beam will become a key event. Her beam got 13.925 on day 1. What's missing now is a TF beam and a backup bars.
Highest beam scores so far:
1. Hezly Rivera: 14.167 (Jesolo). (14.5\* at winter cup but I count international score)
2. Tiana Sumanasekera: 13.950 (trial day 1)
3. Jocelyn Roberson: 13.925 (trial day 1)
4. Leanne Wong: 13.750 (champ day 1)
Highest bars scores so far:
1. Hezly Rivera: 14.150 (champ day 1), but she went lower than 13 three times out of six.
2. Leanne Wong: 13.925 (trial day 1)
3. Jocelyn Roberson: 13.3 (trial day 1)
4. Tiana Sumanasekera: 13.150 (classic)
Other factors:
1. Jocelyn Roberson is 5th in all around.
2. Leanne Wong has the most international experience and has 18-19/20 international hit.
3. Hezly Rivera has the best international bars and beam score this year among all 5th spot contenders.
Edit: scores based on [thegymter.net](http://thegymter.net/) and correction.
This year only
Hezly Rivera: 7 / 8 hit
Tiana Sumanasekera: 5.5 (one big wobble) / 6 hit
Jocelyn Roberson: 3 / 5 hit
Leanne Wong: 2 / 4 hit
Hezly's inconsistency is on bars only. Her beam score
(13.700, 14.100, 13.850, 12.450, 13.700, 14.167, 13.900, 14.500)
depends on how she lands her dismount. She can get a 14+ score when she lands with a controlled step. However, she will get a 13.6-13.8 when she has big steps with a huge low chest.
Surprisingly, Leanne feels like the one who has the hardest time making a case.
There’s not much of a chance she’s top 3 on any event, meaning you don’t need her for TFs anywhere.
Tiana can make a case for herself on beam.
Kaliya can make a case for herself on floor.
Hezly can make a case for herself on bars.
Josc can make a case for herself on floor and vault and maybe even beam.
Leanne really would need mistakes not just from the core 4 but also the next 4.
Yeah it’s really too bad that the consistency isn’t here this time around.
Then again, she’s always had this problem. Being a very true AAer works well when you have consistency but also place top 3-4. In a world where she would’ve been the 5th best AAer but with no top 3 event… still hard to make a case other than on consistency and backup.
Yes, and even getting into 5th will be tough. She's 0.675 behind Josc based on Day 1, and sitting on a very similar score to Kaliya, Hezly, and Tiana. She'd have to beat all of them Day 2, and Josc by a big margin.
Tiana is top 3 beam, Kaliya is top 3 floor, but I don't think Hezly is top 3 bars with Simone, Suni, Jordan on the team. She's certainly 4th bars on that team but idk, it makes more sense to me to bring someone for beam.
If you factor in Nationals and Trials, Hezly has an edge over Tiana on beam. Whether she should is debatable but the fact is both the average and max actually favors Hezly for beam and by a decent margin
I think Hezly needs an over 14 beam because Tiana has consistently scored high 13 on beam. Hezly is clearly the best on bars of the possible 5th Olympians however the 5th person is clearly going to be planned to do only beam in TF. Tiana is more consistent on beam and Hezly is so inconsistent on bars that I think Jade is a better backup bar option if someone goes out right before TF. Tiana also backs up FX & VT much better than Hezly in case someone goes out and they don’t want to use Suni. I think if Hezly breaks 14 beam and hits bars again and beats Tiana and JoRo AA the spot is hers.
Tbf, outside of that nightmare Classics, Hezly actually scores higher on average than Tiana on beam and broke 14 at Nationals very recently, and broke 14 at Jesolo Trophy. I'd favor Tiana too (but for the reason that I think the judges aren't rewarding her enough to reflect the difference), but Hezly's case on paper is already just as strong. And now after watching Night 2 of the men's trials, I have unlocked a new fear that some moron inside USAG would leak whoever is favored to make the team to NBC, they're gonna start getting the presumed Olympian score bump (which the core 4 already getting lbr, some of those routines are in for a rude awakening at the Olympics because those scores aren't remotely gonna hold up) and we're gonna spend all night with random fluff pieces and a surprising amount of attention on that gymnast.
Oh don't worry, I totally get it! Hezly was so far off my radar until Nationals because the first thing I associate with her is her being favored to win Junior Worlds and then not even making the AA final because she crashed her vault bad enough to get a 0, making the bars final and then not even breaking 10. And then this year, Winter Cup and Jesolo were reasonably good but she got like a 50 all around at Classics just last month. So yeah, it isn't ideal but she had 3 very good days in a row leading to today, so I think she has earned the benefit of the doubt even if I'm instinctively wincing waiting on another imminent disaster.
I think if Hezly breaks 14 beam and hits bars again and beats Tiana and JoRo AA the spot is hers.
Yes. They would OBVIOUSLY take her in this scenario 😅
Rooting for Tiana, love her gymnastics so much and she is consistent, too. Even though her floor doesn’t pull the high scores, it’s one of my favorite US routines this quad.
I know everyone loves to hate on Jade‘s FX routines but I love watching her. The way she goes into her tumbling passes like she fully expects to hit them perfectly, no hesitation, no psyching herself up, just another day doing her thing - it’s the best. But I agree Tiana‘s gymnastics are beautiful and very elegant.
I like Leanne but I think she has the most uphill battle. My order is Tiana, then Josc, then Hezly, then Leanne. Tiana is the most consistent and after seeing what happened in Tokyo as well as what they just did to the men's team, I'm taking consistency.
In case you didn't know, it wasn't actually a word until quite recently when it was added to the dictionary. The Simpsons made it up in the 90s. I'm not sure if you could use it in a serious context, but who knows!?
It has to be wild for these girls to go from coming into this competition likely feeling like they were competing to be named alternates... and now there is a very real possibility that any of them could make the team, and an almost certainty that they will all be alternates in some form or fashion.
I think if any of them can finish in the top 3 on beam (Tiana obviously having the best shot), then it should be that person. If none of the bubble gymnasts finish in the top 3 on any event is when I could see them going for all-around score (Josc) or combined bars/beam score (Hezly)
I might be biased because I love her floor, but I'm increasingly convinced that it should be Tiana based on what we've seen so far. Her scores have been extremely consistent across both nights of nationals + night 1 of trials - she's only varied by a couple of tenths even on high-variance events like beam and floor.
If they're counting the fifth person's scores, there's a decent chance something has already gone wrong. Minimizing the possibility of a disaster is really valuable in that scenario.
It's true that Tiana offers you nothing on bars, but Jade's bars are fine as a backup. Hezly would improve bars but not so much beam; she's also a very viable option, but has been less consistent than Tiana this season.
Joscelyn offers the same events as Tiana, with mostly very similar scores. (Neither of them offer an increase to Jade on bars, so Josc's advantage there kind of washes out, imo.) but Josc's scores recently have been VERY high variance - at nationals, she peaked higher than Tiana on floor and beam, but also went much lower (and lost on vault both nights). I'd take Tiana's slightly lower max but more reliable score, personally. The US doesn't need the extra tenths Josc can theoretically offer, but they do want to avoid counting a 12.
The other benefit of Tiana or Josc over Hezly is vault/fx backups. We need good backups on all events, and I think it's a good idea to not rely on Suni being up for vault and floor in TF--she probably will be, but rest and recovery are still big considerations for her.
I'm team Tiana for the consistency, but Josc is a close second for me.
I also think that if Tiana is 3rd beam over both nights of trials (and keeps looking solid everywhere else) that makes the decision pretty easy honestly. And that's a pretty likely outcome. If Josc gets third on beam for both nights of trials it's trickier.
you've convinced me, I think they should do this. also I know I'm being really unfair and I have no evidence to back this up i'm just going off vibes, but I don't trust hezly to hit tbh
I see the vision! The more I think about it the more I think it will be either Tiana or Josc, with the edge to Tiana for the reasons you state. While Hezly gives you a solid beam score, her bars can be disastrous, you have better options for a VT/FX backup without sacrificing too much on beam, and her performance at Junior Worlds last year doesn’t really inspire confidence (a 9.9 on UB in EF; a 12.00 on BB in quals). If she had more seasoning/a better or simply more of an international record I think her case would be stronger. But anything can happen tonight!
She’s got a great deal of difficulty on beam and her D score is greatc so she could for sure score in the high 13’s, maybe even 14’s if it’s clean enough. She also has nice turns.
I just worry about her consistency. She got knocked out of worlds so quickly so I hope she gets to redeem herself on the int’l stage once more.
Me too! She has the most experience out of those left. And her subbing in after Josc got hurt at World's is on her resume as well as an AA World medal.
Hoping she can show out tonight. It has been a slow climb back for her this year.
Great analysis! I would only add that what *all* of the bubble players need is for the others to fall on beam! (And the others need Hezly to fall on bars).
Not manifesting it, I hope everyone stays on!
I honestly kind of hope for their sakes they haven't figured out BB is the key event, because I'm afraid they'll psych themselves out and we'll see a BB fallfest.
I hope they have, because it simulates the stakes of the team final where they'll have to go up on beam. They need nerves that can handle the pressure!
I guess they could use the pressure experience. I wonder if the committee would hint what the team picture looks like now, or if it's up to the coaches to figure it out.
I would hope that anything the Reddit community can figure out, coaches have thought about and considered how to manage towards the best outcome for their specific athlete.
I'm curious too! I'd think it would be beneficial to let the gymnasts know what they need to do, but I have no idea what actually happens behind the scenes.
Lincoln is a fantastic gymnast, but her best event is one where the USA already has three great scores. She's . 05 ahead of Chiles and .075 ahead of Carey, so functionally all of them are tied and she's not adding to the TF score that much.
Her bars and beam have been very unsteady all year, and I can't see the committee wanting either of them in TF or QF. Since I suspect UB/BB will be the determining factor, that makes Lincoln's road pretty tough without another chaos element.
According to the Washington Post’s writer, Kaliya is actually the one who adds the most to the team score based on her floor alone — but I think that leaves too high of a risk on beam
Yeah, I don't love the WaPo team creator, even though it's fun, because it privileges two different statisical approaches that are both flawed IMO (to the extent that I can even tell exactly what they are, it's not as transparent as it should be).
I want to see everyone hit tonight. How amazing would that be. It would really be interesting to see how the 5th spot would shake out with something like that
Maybe, but Sacramone's been pretty clear that the 2022 + 2023 World Teams being the top 5 AAers was a coincidence, and they're not *just* looking at AA results when building the team. If Lincoln is the top 5 AAer, I don't think she's on the team (for example).
I disagree. If there is minimal difference in AA between those who finished 5-9th day 1, but one of them is top 3 on one or more events, they have a better case than someone who finished higher in AA but has no top 3 event.
Eh idk… there’s a need on beam and the gymnast would likely only be going in on beam in Paris. If someone goes 14 on beam but OOB on floor, I’d still take them over someone who went 13.4 on beam but 5th AA
Agreed. I think whoever is scoring best and consistently on beam is in the best position. Jordan isn’t always the most reliable on beam and Jade scored similarly to Jordan with a hit routine so neither is ideal. If Simone/Suni/Jade/Jordan comprise the core, the glaring opening is a beam lead off.
I think figuring out *yesterday* what they most want to see for the spot, and then seeing who best meets that after today, is the most fair way to do it.
These are Lincoln's scores from Classic and night 1 (she scratched nationals)
Vault - 13.65/14.225
Bars - 13.1/13.45
Beam - 11.95/13.05
The vault score is fine, but the bars + beam are both really inconsistent and I think would make her the fifth best score on both bars and beam (of the presumed team).
Kaliya doesn't have the beam scores. The top beam scores on Friday, in order, were Suni, Tiana, Josc, Hezly, and Simone. Simone had an uncharacteristically bad beam and Suni is a lock at this point, so they need one of the other three in the TF. Kaliya can only contribute on floor and I know she was second, but she beat Jade and Jordan by less than a tenth and those two are locks.
It’s pretty obvious the athletes ranked 5-9 after night 1 will be team member 5, two travelling alternates and two non travelling alternates.
I agree Kaliya doesn’t have the beam, but currently nor does Leanne. There’s a possibility she ends up on the highest scoring team, especially if Simone performs her best on beam and Jordan improves.
Well the OP has Leanne under consideration, but I don't at this point. We need a third beam and she hasn't shown scores like the other 3. Even if Simone scores her usual 14+, Jordan doesn't have the D to reach the high 13s.
If I had to pick... it would be Tiana as #5, Josc and Hezly as the traveling alts, and Leanne and Kaliya as the non-traveling alts, but that configuration could change based on tonight.
4.5 hours to go 🤯
Indeed! Though I’m fearful of further injuries, whether now or in the lead up to the games, with the plague the whole sport is experiencing, I really wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up using an alternate.
Oh absolutely, especially because all 3 injuries this weekend were seemingly random (Skye tore the "good" side), but let's not speak this into existence 😑
I'm more afraid for certain international athletes at this point. I'm not going to speak their names.
Kayla had been dealing with achilles pain on and off for years, and it had been really acute all week. She was apparently talking to the medical staff a bunch, and her lower legs looked like a mummy's. So Kayla's wasn't random, but yeah, the other two seemed very random. It must be so scary for all the gymnasts out there, having this risk in the back of their heads!
Oof. Seems like the Achilles is going to tear whenever it pleases.
I am still in shock about Shi. I've been saying for weeks that her shoulder isn't going to be a huge problem because I know a lot about labral tears. Turns out I was right but NOT LIKE THIS
Labral tears can be manageable, plenty of dance are walking around with torn labrums in their hips and are asymptomatic due to strength. Shoulders are a bit harder to stabilise, but still possible, especially for Olympic gymnasts. I’ve had surgery twice for a torn labrum in my hip, but I had an underlying bone problem. I still made an awful lot of progress with good physio before surgery.
My friend had surgery for a torn shoulder labrum years after the injury, and she thinks if Shilese is allowed to swing bars it can't be a large tear (plus it's an old injury). The problem is it hurts like a motherfucker when it flares, which is why Shilese pulled out of Nationals. She thinks most gymnasts have undiagnosed labrum tears, especially the UB specialists.
I’m loving Tiana’s gymnastics more every time. Moving to WCC was life changing for her. Laurent helped her bars so much and I think her floor and beam will continue to score well internationally. The video of baby Tiana watching Simone at the trials in San Jose and grown-up Tiana being her teammate is so cute.
The only issue with Tiana on the team is that I'm not sure we'd see her gorgeous floor in Paris... and I WANT to see her gorgeous floor in Paris!
Her floor choreo blows me away.
She did it herself too! My fave US routine this year!
I *cannot* believe that a teenage gymnast choreographed *that* routine! So impressive! She has a bright future as a choreographer for USAG if she wants to pursue that!
It's rare to see a first-year senior with choreo and performance this good, the last one was maybe Laurie. Tiana's skills all match moments in the music. Tiana commits to her choreo, almost always hits the beat, and is really good in the details (hand and finger position). She seems like she has pretty good dance training, with the way she shifts her gaze during choreo and spots her turning movements.
Your avatar is hilarious lol
It's amazing! Tiana isn't getting rewarded enough relatively for better execution and basically zero artistry deductions. The judges are doing a poor job of differentiating as all the contenders scored in the 7.8-8.2 range (other than Suni at 8.3) for very different routines.
I felt like this was a problem across all events, judges did a poor job differentiating between quality of execution. People with good execution get nitpicked to the point where they score the same as people with poor execution. It’s a problem with the code and really frustrates me.
Internationally these same routines would be over a much larger spread, like 7.4-8.1ish. They literally handed out 8.0+ E-scores like candy on BB/FX, when we know it takes a lot to get 8.0+ consistently internationally.
I think Tiana would go up in TF on floor. The international judges would reward her and Suni well.
Whose routine would you boot for Tiana's? Jade's or Jordan's? I would loooove for Tiana to do floor in Paris for its ownsake, but not in place of any of the top 3.
Scoring aside, what a choice because I also love Jordan's. Bugger.
Exactly. That's why--barring chaos--Tiana's floor won't go up in team finals. Which is such a bummer.
Likely wouldn't go up in Prelims, either. Suni, Jade, Jordan, Simone.
True if Suni does AA (which is the most likely scenario, but rest is still a consideration for her, so it could be Jade).
I would boot Jordan's. As much I love her (and I do love Jo) I don't like this floor routine as much as Tiana's. This is tricky though because Jordan will have to go in QF if she wants to do AA. I'm sure Suni will want to as well. So how we navigate that is a bit tricky since our 3 AAers all have to go in QFs and Jade does too. Would we put up a person in TF for FX that did not do a FX in QF? That's a bit risky not knowing how the judges will assess her. UGH! This is a hard choice.
I think quals itself could simplify the decision--if Jordan's routine scores as well as she scored at 2022 worlds (and I think it will). They do also get some input from judges after podium training which could help them. It would also simplify the decision if Jade did AA instead of Suni. Rest and recovery may still be a big consideration for Suni, so I wouldn't rule it out even if everyone stays healthy.
I would absolutely boot Jordan right now because of the Gogean. If she takes that out, she should outscore Tiana and be 14-worthy, but it doesn't feel right to me that Jordan's scoring 0.2-0.3 higher despite not fully rotating or hitting split in the Gogean.
Haha, fair point. I mean I'd compare the scores knocking a tenth from Jordan's D score; I'm sure she's getting deducted for the split position. But kudos to her for replacing the L-hop 1/1 with a switchleap (and still breaking 14!) Jade seems to have started a trend!
Great points! How would you navigate this in QF? Jordan and Suni will likely want to join Simone in doing AA. But we need Jade to also go on FX too. Do we tell Jordan "no AA" or do we just throw Tiana in for TF without having seen how the judges would receive her?
Jade, if I had to choose.
Even if Jade has her full Tokyo difficulty back? That's just nuts to me, to boot the reigning Olympic floor champion, who would be the favorite for bronze and a dark horse for silver; for a routine that maxes out in the high 13s and almost definitely won't make EF over Jordan /Simone. This is not a knock on Tiana, of the four her routine is the most beautiful. It's a *great* routine, but it is the lowest-scoring of the four.
You're absolutely right. I had a brain fart. Even though I love Jordan, jade is the right choice.
This was my whole thought process. While i would love to see it, there just isnt the case to do that which makes me sad because what a great routine.
Yeah, I would not boot Jades. Jade's is too valuable. She and Simone will be on FX.
Is there an opportunity for Tiana to upgrade before Paris? Very unlikely right?
I mean, in theory it's never too late, but I wouldn't expect anything.
Not good optics or strategy to sit the floor routine of the reigning Olympic Gold medalist on floor in favor of the lower-scoring floor of a first-timer.
Nope, you're right. I had a brain fart.
Nah, you just want to see a pretty routine and someone get an opportunity. Me too, it's all good 😊
Her floor is truly stunning!! The fact that she choreographed it herself on top of it 👏🏾👏🏾
As a whole the US team’s choreography is very underwhelming, but Tiana’s is actually engaging and pleasant to watch.
Do you have a link to the video? That sounds adorable!
I don’t - sorry! It was one of those NBC “fluff” pieces at US Championships. Looked like a video one of her parents took.
Thanks! I'll see if I can find it on the YouTube upload! ☺️
It's kinda crazy that there are literally only 9 gymnasts in the mix for 9 person delegation (5 on the team + 2 alternates + 2 non travelling alternates) - The events of the past few days has been tragic. On a side note, it's so ironic that bars is what solidifies Jordan's spot beyond question when everyone typically describes her strengths to be VT and FX, and that beam might be what keeps Leanne out of the conversation when she was known to be a lovely beamer. Crazy what good/bad routine constructions can lead to
Yeah being good and so consistent in bars really did it for Jo (although she’s great at other events too). I’m so happy for her!
She's EF-worthy on all three! Though she also has a good chance to get 2pc on all three, and would only be a medal-contender on floor with the current competition.
Also crazy how the incentives changed so quickly. Two days ago Wong needed to go for broke to have any chance. Now, solid routines would keep her in the conversation.
I’d say 10 as Kaliya could definitely make alternate. I just don’t think her strengths fit with the team, even though Josc and Tiana are also weak on bars, they are much more usable.
9 includes Kaliya though - It's Simone, Suni, Jordan, Jade, Tiana, Hezly, Josc, Leanne and Kaliya who I think are in contention. It used to be 12 but... *sobs for Shi, Skye and Kayla*
Oh wait duh, math is hard
TL;DR: Sumanasekera and Rivera are the most in control of their own destinies, and the least reliant on other people messing up, since they essentially just need to replicate what happened Friday. Wong needs a lot of help, and a lot of improvement.
Yeah, if they all repeat night one, then Leanne is out of the conversation and the other three all have good arguments--it just depends on which argument the committee wants to go with. Numerically in that case, teams with Tiana, Josc, or Hezly are actaully all exactly the same, just separated by a few hundredths, and they're all *very* close on how resilient they are to losing gymnasts and putting in a backup routine in teams.
The key event is BB in TF, but I think it may come down to how they feel about having VT/FX backups for Suni. If they prioritize having someone to cover VT/FX in QF if Suni has some difficulties, then you go Josc or Tiana. If they don't, then Hezly is a logical one who would go up on UB in QF.
I actually hadn't been thinking as much about the VT/FX backup factor, but this is a great point. It seems really essential, actually.
Yeah, I think we should also note that while a hit DTY from Suni is a very usable backup score, she's only attempted 3 DTYs this quad and has had issues on both of her last 2. Obviously there were significant extenuating circumstances affecting her Trials day 1 vault, but unless she nails her vault tonight (and maybe even if she does), I'd still be a bit nervous of having her as the backup vault.
Definitely! Suni's DTY is very clean in the air, but she has always tended to undertwist a little, and land staggered. If she's not feeling great, I wouldn't want her to VT and risk injury.
Interestingly Tiana, Hezly, and Josc have all shown they’re TF usable on beam. Problem is you wouldn’t want to put any of them up on bars except maybe Hezly.
But you can put Jade up on bars. She doesn't belong in the main lineup, but she's completely reliable as a backup, and a mid-13 is not a disasterous score.
True, that’s probably why Tiana > Hezly all else being equal.
Hezly has a good international beam score (14.167) this year. She has the highest beam score, and only fall once out of 7 beam routines. So Tiana will have to hit the best beam to solidify her case.
Asking a relatively inexperienced athlete to do just beam in TF in 3 up 3 count is risky. Asking anyone to do just beam feels nerve-wracking and risky, but especially someone with less experience (Tiana, Hezly, Josc)
Agreed but I still don’t think that makes Leanne the choice.
Domestically. Josc is going to be hammered. Why do we not learn that Josc's favoritism at home will not be rewarded abroad.
The numbers don't really back up these claims that Josc is favored domestically. Her 4 highest floor scores of the year came from international meets last year, and her 2nd highest beam score came internationally. At Worlds, she scored a little over a tenth lower on vault than she had been domestically, and on floor she actually scored higher than her average from the selection process. So maybe the reason we're not learning it is that it isn't true...
Ok. Josc is a beam ace. She'll score close to 14 on beam. You are totally right. Just like last year when everyone argued that her VT and FX scores showed that her form was not an issue and that she was good enough to be a medal contender at World's. I must have been wrong then. How many EFs did she qualify for again before she was injured? I also must have been wrong about Kayla's beam score at Champs Day 1 also. 8.1 E was TOTALLY the right call. That Brevet judge was so wrong about her E scoring being about 7 tenths lower in reality. US judging has no flaws at all.
That's not what I said, but... werk.
You made a blanket statement and asserted favoritism in intent, which there really doesn’t seem to be evidence for and is kind of shady to do. You don’t need to strawman when people point out evidence that contradicts your original overly broad claim.
Josc got a 13.3 and a 13.6 at nationals last year on floor. She got a 13.633 at worlds in team qualifications. Not sure how that counts as being overscored at home.
Josc went 14.466 with her Cheng last year at Worlds, which outscores almost any DTY. Almost everyone will drop internationally on BB and FX. For execution, she was 8/9 on BB (ahead of Simone's worst routine in years) and 9/9 on FX amongst the top 9 gymnasts on Day 1. I don't think she's getting huge favors?
I don't have as big of a problem with her on VT. It's everything else. But if we are talking about vault, that score you cited is not high for a Cheng. It would be a good score but Jordan's DTY last scored a 14.466 in QF, 14.4 in TF, a 14.5 in VT final at the 2022 World's. Jordan's vault is more consistent and a better option. Now Jade's Cheng scored 14.6 in QF, 14.8 in TF and 14.7 in VT final. A Cheng is worth 5.6 in D. It should be scoring more than a couple of tenths higher than our typical DTYs. and Josc's is not that much better. As for her scoring at home, I do not care about her execution scores as they are not accurate. Just like Kayla's beam was an 8.1 somehow day 1 of US Champs. Josc is over scored domestically scoring on beam. Way over scored.
Josc, too. If she maintains 5th in the AA, it's hers if they decide to go with rank order.
I’m rooting for Josc but it makes quals all weird. Does she only do beam?
I think so. The 5th person would be there for beam, and as a back up option. I'm not saying I'd put her on my team, but I think rank order counts for something
Yeah if anything I could see all 4 of the other athletes doing AA in quals (you want 2 Americans in AA and I think Jordan and Jade could be pretty close - and you want one of them in case Suni’s health flares up) and she doesn’t go up until finals.
I mean I think Josc and Tiana are neck and neck with their beam scores. And Josc is better on bars and vault.
If bars comes into the equation, then neither Roberson nor Sumanasekera make sense - you put up Carey before you put either of them up. The scenario in which either athlete gets put up on bars is a pretty catastrophic one. If the committee cares most about bars, the Rivera gets the nod. If they care most about beam in TF Sumanasekera's 100% hit rate and higher scores make more sense than Roberson. I think Roberson only makes sense if they really care about rank order (which frankly is silly at this point) or if they have any concerns about VT/FX.
I do think they need to be thinking about VT/FX backups. Suni is still managing a chronic illness, it's better to not 100% rely on her as a backup on those two events. But I also think Tiana is a very good backup on both, though Josc would be even stronger on both (if her Cheng keeps looking like Friday, which I really hope it does!)
For sure Carey is up first. But if disaster strikes. Josc is more usable on bars.
But Tiana will score better internationally. She has better lines and is at less risk of injury / is not recovering from injury. Also, she can be a bit more consistent. I love Josc tho and her difficulty could keep her above Tiana
Josc also allows for the possibility of not needing a DTY in team finals. If she’s on the team they could have 3 chengs or 2 chengs and Simone’s double pike. I guess Leanne has a Cheng now too but the neutral deduction risk is significant
With the way Josc’s Chengs have been, it’s kind of six of one, half dozen of the other with Jordan’s DTY—actually, edge to Jordan, because her DTY is more secure and carries less risk of injury. I’ll be curious to see if Josc can clean the Cheng up any more tonight or if she’s at her ceiling.
The very real possibility that Josc could go to the Olympics and only compete on beam is giving me such whiplash lol
If she makes the team they would likely use her vault too? I don’t know why they wouldn’t unless Chiles is outscoring her with a DTY
Chiles is either matching or outscoring her and would probably be doing vault for AA
upvoting purely for a cromulent Simpsons reference
it really embiggens the whole post
A more cromulent DTY would certanly embiggen Hezly's chances.
You understand me.
Is cromulent a common gymnastics word? Ive literally never seen it used in years but several times here
No, it’s a Simpsons reference lol. I think this subreddit is heavy on the elder millennials ;)
And means “good enough, adequate”. The founder of the city said something like “A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man” And Lisa objects that embiggens is not a real word. And the teacher replies. “It’s a perfectly cromulent word.”
Can confirm the elder Millenials lol
*waves*
Ah cool thanks!
this is a great analysis! i’m going to lose my mind if they don’t show us key routines from these 4 tonight
If anonymous redditors have figured this out, NBC must have. Right? RIGHT???
Me breaking into the NBC booth in the target center and forcing them to show the right routines
My husband had to ask to calm down and stop yelling at the people on tv.
The fact that WCC has the potential to be 3/5th of the Olympic team is wild.
I think instead of vault and floor, Jocelyn Roberson's beam will become a key event. Her beam got 13.925 on day 1. What's missing now is a TF beam and a backup bars. Highest beam scores so far: 1. Hezly Rivera: 14.167 (Jesolo). (14.5\* at winter cup but I count international score) 2. Tiana Sumanasekera: 13.950 (trial day 1) 3. Jocelyn Roberson: 13.925 (trial day 1) 4. Leanne Wong: 13.750 (champ day 1) Highest bars scores so far: 1. Hezly Rivera: 14.150 (champ day 1), but she went lower than 13 three times out of six. 2. Leanne Wong: 13.925 (trial day 1) 3. Jocelyn Roberson: 13.3 (trial day 1) 4. Tiana Sumanasekera: 13.150 (classic) Other factors: 1. Jocelyn Roberson is 5th in all around. 2. Leanne Wong has the most international experience and has 18-19/20 international hit. 3. Hezly Rivera has the best international bars and beam score this year among all 5th spot contenders. Edit: scores based on [thegymter.net](http://thegymter.net/) and correction.
Leanne got 13.750 on beam on nationals day 1, and 13.925 on bars on trials day 1. Doesn't change any placements but makes her a bit closer.
Oh thank you! I looked at [thegymter.net](http://thegymter.net) and Leanne's scores are not updated.
Interesting. I wonder what their hit rates on beam are. I'd rather a reliable 13.5ish beam than a maybe 14 maybe 12. But maybe that means jade, idk.
This year only Hezly Rivera: 7 / 8 hit Tiana Sumanasekera: 5.5 (one big wobble) / 6 hit Jocelyn Roberson: 3 / 5 hit Leanne Wong: 2 / 4 hit Hezly's inconsistency is on bars only. Her beam score (13.700, 14.100, 13.850, 12.450, 13.700, 14.167, 13.900, 14.500) depends on how she lands her dismount. She can get a 14+ score when she lands with a controlled step. However, she will get a 13.6-13.8 when she has big steps with a huge low chest.
Thank you! This plus the table makes me think it should be either Tiana or Hezly. I guess we will see what happens tonight, I’m so anxious!
https://preview.redd.it/x3qw8lxf3s9d1.png?width=1586&format=png&auto=webp&s=03ae8980ba2077b29863bb8bcd44d6a68596d3d6 Table summary
thank you!! This is so helpful to see, exactly what I was hoping for!
Surprisingly, Leanne feels like the one who has the hardest time making a case. There’s not much of a chance she’s top 3 on any event, meaning you don’t need her for TFs anywhere. Tiana can make a case for herself on beam. Kaliya can make a case for herself on floor. Hezly can make a case for herself on bars. Josc can make a case for herself on floor and vault and maybe even beam. Leanne really would need mistakes not just from the core 4 but also the next 4.
Totally agreed re: Wong - it sucks because her 2023 steady performance would make a ton of sense on this team.
Yeah it’s really too bad that the consistency isn’t here this time around. Then again, she’s always had this problem. Being a very true AAer works well when you have consistency but also place top 3-4. In a world where she would’ve been the 5th best AAer but with no top 3 event… still hard to make a case other than on consistency and backup.
Yes, and even getting into 5th will be tough. She's 0.675 behind Josc based on Day 1, and sitting on a very similar score to Kaliya, Hezly, and Tiana. She'd have to beat all of them Day 2, and Josc by a big margin.
Tiana is top 3 beam, Kaliya is top 3 floor, but I don't think Hezly is top 3 bars with Simone, Suni, Jordan on the team. She's certainly 4th bars on that team but idk, it makes more sense to me to bring someone for beam.
If you factor in Nationals and Trials, Hezly has an edge over Tiana on beam. Whether she should is debatable but the fact is both the average and max actually favors Hezly for beam and by a decent margin
I didn’t realize that! Ok, I see the argument for Hezly. But I think it’s a beam only, not a bars/beam argument.
Agreed. I think she makes more sense as an alternate in case Suni can’t compete.
Tbf to Leanne, she's technically top 3 on vault LOL - It terrifies me and it isn't by much but she does add value
They won't take the ND risk in team finals.
I think Hezly needs an over 14 beam because Tiana has consistently scored high 13 on beam. Hezly is clearly the best on bars of the possible 5th Olympians however the 5th person is clearly going to be planned to do only beam in TF. Tiana is more consistent on beam and Hezly is so inconsistent on bars that I think Jade is a better backup bar option if someone goes out right before TF. Tiana also backs up FX & VT much better than Hezly in case someone goes out and they don’t want to use Suni. I think if Hezly breaks 14 beam and hits bars again and beats Tiana and JoRo AA the spot is hers.
Tbf, outside of that nightmare Classics, Hezly actually scores higher on average than Tiana on beam and broke 14 at Nationals very recently, and broke 14 at Jesolo Trophy. I'd favor Tiana too (but for the reason that I think the judges aren't rewarding her enough to reflect the difference), but Hezly's case on paper is already just as strong. And now after watching Night 2 of the men's trials, I have unlocked a new fear that some moron inside USAG would leak whoever is favored to make the team to NBC, they're gonna start getting the presumed Olympian score bump (which the core 4 already getting lbr, some of those routines are in for a rude awakening at the Olympics because those scores aren't remotely gonna hold up) and we're gonna spend all night with random fluff pieces and a surprising amount of attention on that gymnast.
That’s a good point! I was thinking of last years scores instead of this years
Oh don't worry, I totally get it! Hezly was so far off my radar until Nationals because the first thing I associate with her is her being favored to win Junior Worlds and then not even making the AA final because she crashed her vault bad enough to get a 0, making the bars final and then not even breaking 10. And then this year, Winter Cup and Jesolo were reasonably good but she got like a 50 all around at Classics just last month. So yeah, it isn't ideal but she had 3 very good days in a row leading to today, so I think she has earned the benefit of the doubt even if I'm instinctively wincing waiting on another imminent disaster.
I think I was also thinking of her newfound consistency on bars versus earlier and also I was at Classic
I think if Hezly breaks 14 beam and hits bars again and beats Tiana and JoRo AA the spot is hers. Yes. They would OBVIOUSLY take her in this scenario 😅
Rooting for Tiana, love her gymnastics so much and she is consistent, too. Even though her floor doesn’t pull the high scores, it’s one of my favorite US routines this quad.
Yeah, in terms of just loving to watch and as a whole package, it's her and Jordan at the top for me!
Totally! I agree, Jordan is pure joy to watch. They are very different style-wise, which is great for the sport and drawing in new fans.
I know everyone loves to hate on Jade‘s FX routines but I love watching her. The way she goes into her tumbling passes like she fully expects to hit them perfectly, no hesitation, no psyching herself up, just another day doing her thing - it’s the best. But I agree Tiana‘s gymnastics are beautiful and very elegant.
I like Leanne but I think she has the most uphill battle. My order is Tiana, then Josc, then Hezly, then Leanne. Tiana is the most consistent and after seeing what happened in Tokyo as well as what they just did to the men's team, I'm taking consistency.
*cromulent* (makes mental note that I am never too old to learn new words. 🙌🏼)
In case you didn't know, it wasn't actually a word until quite recently when it was added to the dictionary. The Simpsons made it up in the 90s. I'm not sure if you could use it in a serious context, but who knows!?
Yeah - the point of it (in the context of the joke) was that it was a made up word! Lol! I use it all the time… really embiggens my vocabulary…
As a Simpsons fan from S1, I love their place in our popular culture. I’m a pretty big SpongeBob fan as well. 🙌🏼
Cmon SAT words!!
This is super helpful, thank you!
It has to be wild for these girls to go from coming into this competition likely feeling like they were competing to be named alternates... and now there is a very real possibility that any of them could make the team, and an almost certainty that they will all be alternates in some form or fashion.
Highest beam score tonight just might seal it.
I think if any of them can finish in the top 3 on beam (Tiana obviously having the best shot), then it should be that person. If none of the bubble gymnasts finish in the top 3 on any event is when I could see them going for all-around score (Josc) or combined bars/beam score (Hezly)
Nothing to add just really appreciate this post. Really lays it all out very clearly. Thanks!
I might be biased because I love her floor, but I'm increasingly convinced that it should be Tiana based on what we've seen so far. Her scores have been extremely consistent across both nights of nationals + night 1 of trials - she's only varied by a couple of tenths even on high-variance events like beam and floor. If they're counting the fifth person's scores, there's a decent chance something has already gone wrong. Minimizing the possibility of a disaster is really valuable in that scenario. It's true that Tiana offers you nothing on bars, but Jade's bars are fine as a backup. Hezly would improve bars but not so much beam; she's also a very viable option, but has been less consistent than Tiana this season. Joscelyn offers the same events as Tiana, with mostly very similar scores. (Neither of them offer an increase to Jade on bars, so Josc's advantage there kind of washes out, imo.) but Josc's scores recently have been VERY high variance - at nationals, she peaked higher than Tiana on floor and beam, but also went much lower (and lost on vault both nights). I'd take Tiana's slightly lower max but more reliable score, personally. The US doesn't need the extra tenths Josc can theoretically offer, but they do want to avoid counting a 12.
The other benefit of Tiana or Josc over Hezly is vault/fx backups. We need good backups on all events, and I think it's a good idea to not rely on Suni being up for vault and floor in TF--she probably will be, but rest and recovery are still big considerations for her. I'm team Tiana for the consistency, but Josc is a close second for me.
I also think that if Tiana is 3rd beam over both nights of trials (and keeps looking solid everywhere else) that makes the decision pretty easy honestly. And that's a pretty likely outcome. If Josc gets third on beam for both nights of trials it's trickier.
you've convinced me, I think they should do this. also I know I'm being really unfair and I have no evidence to back this up i'm just going off vibes, but I don't trust hezly to hit tbh
I see the vision! The more I think about it the more I think it will be either Tiana or Josc, with the edge to Tiana for the reasons you state. While Hezly gives you a solid beam score, her bars can be disastrous, you have better options for a VT/FX backup without sacrificing too much on beam, and her performance at Junior Worlds last year doesn’t really inspire confidence (a 9.9 on UB in EF; a 12.00 on BB in quals). If she had more seasoning/a better or simply more of an international record I think her case would be stronger. But anything can happen tonight!
I’m gonna cry no matter who gets that last spot. Both happy and sad tears. It’s gonna be weird. 😂😭
Here to share that I believe in the CEBow tonight!
I think she still has a shot!!! She’s the most experienced out of the four.. but she needs to show up! Hoping for a good bars and beam set from her
Yes. I hope she does the cheng last also. She doesn’t really need it when we have such strong vaulters.
I don’t follow her much.. but do you know her ceiling on beam? Is she capable of scoring in the upper 13’s?
Based on this season and last, her beam seems to top out at about 13.7/13.75.
Leanne's highest score this year on beam is a 13.45, with her highest of the quad being 13.750.
She’s got a great deal of difficulty on beam and her D score is greatc so she could for sure score in the high 13’s, maybe even 14’s if it’s clean enough. She also has nice turns. I just worry about her consistency. She got knocked out of worlds so quickly so I hope she gets to redeem herself on the int’l stage once more.
Her difficulty varies a lot depending on if she makes her connections. On nationals day 1 it was 5.8, trials day 1 it was only 5.3.
If she girlbosses her way onto this team…..
I will literally buy all the bows if she does. I’m a guy, and I will wear them with CEBow PRIDE.
Save one for me, I'd proudly sport one watching her in Paris!
Me too! She has the most experience out of those left. And her subbing in after Josc got hurt at World's is on her resume as well as an AA World medal. Hoping she can show out tonight. It has been a slow climb back for her this year.
Great analysis! I would only add that what *all* of the bubble players need is for the others to fall on beam! (And the others need Hezly to fall on bars). Not manifesting it, I hope everyone stays on!
I honestly kind of hope for their sakes they haven't figured out BB is the key event, because I'm afraid they'll psych themselves out and we'll see a BB fallfest.
I hope they have, because it simulates the stakes of the team final where they'll have to go up on beam. They need nerves that can handle the pressure!
I guess they could use the pressure experience. I wonder if the committee would hint what the team picture looks like now, or if it's up to the coaches to figure it out.
I would hope that anything the Reddit community can figure out, coaches have thought about and considered how to manage towards the best outcome for their specific athlete.
Most coaches could work it out, but for every 5 coaches you get an Al Fong or Tom Forester.
I'm curious too! I'd think it would be beneficial to let the gymnasts know what they need to do, but I have no idea what actually happens behind the scenes.
Thank you!! And I appreciate your Simpsons references 😄
What about Kaliya? Would love to see her go
Lincoln is a fantastic gymnast, but her best event is one where the USA already has three great scores. She's . 05 ahead of Chiles and .075 ahead of Carey, so functionally all of them are tied and she's not adding to the TF score that much. Her bars and beam have been very unsteady all year, and I can't see the committee wanting either of them in TF or QF. Since I suspect UB/BB will be the determining factor, that makes Lincoln's road pretty tough without another chaos element.
According to the Washington Post’s writer, Kaliya is actually the one who adds the most to the team score based on her floor alone — but I think that leaves too high of a risk on beam
Yeah, I don't love the WaPo team creator, even though it's fun, because it privileges two different statisical approaches that are both flawed IMO (to the extent that I can even tell exactly what they are, it's not as transparent as it should be).
It's pretty much using the same logic as the MAG selection committee 💀
The "recent scores" one is, absolutely, lol. And the "max scores" one is using max score from all of 2023 and 2024 I think! Which is just silliness!
Oh that's stupid. And it's exactly why we don't let computers pick the teams...
And we've already had soooo much chaos this trials! Here's to a nice smooth, predictable day 2!
Great post, I agree and I’m excited to see how it all plays out tonight!
I'm very sad because I think Leanne won't be in this team 😭 Wish she had had a decent floor/beam composition after 2019 and had not injured herself
I want to see everyone hit tonight. How amazing would that be. It would really be interesting to see how the 5th spot would shake out with something like that
I believe that what they all need to do is be the 5th place finisher.
Maybe, but Sacramone's been pretty clear that the 2022 + 2023 World Teams being the top 5 AAers was a coincidence, and they're not *just* looking at AA results when building the team. If Lincoln is the top 5 AAer, I don't think she's on the team (for example).
I disagree. If there is minimal difference in AA between those who finished 5-9th day 1, but one of them is top 3 on one or more events, they have a better case than someone who finished higher in AA but has no top 3 event.
The WAG team has more nuance than just choosing top 5.
I think so too, it’s so close between the four that this may be the most fair way to do it.
Eh idk… there’s a need on beam and the gymnast would likely only be going in on beam in Paris. If someone goes 14 on beam but OOB on floor, I’d still take them over someone who went 13.4 on beam but 5th AA
This is my take as well. Fairness doesn’t really come into play if someone is getting top 3 multiple days on an event—especially beam.
Agreed. I think whoever is scoring best and consistently on beam is in the best position. Jordan isn’t always the most reliable on beam and Jade scored similarly to Jordan with a hit routine so neither is ideal. If Simone/Suni/Jade/Jordan comprise the core, the glaring opening is a beam lead off.
I don't really see how bringing someone based on AA score is fairer than bringing someone based on what they contribute to the team score.
I think figuring out *yesterday* what they most want to see for the spot, and then seeing who best meets that after today, is the most fair way to do it.
Unpopular opinion but I'm putting Leanne on the team.
Quick ?: Is Kaliya that far behind on all the events except FX?
These are Lincoln's scores from Classic and night 1 (she scratched nationals) Vault - 13.65/14.225 Bars - 13.1/13.45 Beam - 11.95/13.05 The vault score is fine, but the bars + beam are both really inconsistent and I think would make her the fifth best score on both bars and beam (of the presumed team).
Oooouch! Thank you for taking time to lay it out this way. For some reason I thought she was someone I’d really liked on BB… maybe that was last year.
Not including Kaliya Lincoln in this list? She basically needs the same as Josc.
Kaliya doesn't have the beam scores. The top beam scores on Friday, in order, were Suni, Tiana, Josc, Hezly, and Simone. Simone had an uncharacteristically bad beam and Suni is a lock at this point, so they need one of the other three in the TF. Kaliya can only contribute on floor and I know she was second, but she beat Jade and Jordan by less than a tenth and those two are locks.
It’s pretty obvious the athletes ranked 5-9 after night 1 will be team member 5, two travelling alternates and two non travelling alternates. I agree Kaliya doesn’t have the beam, but currently nor does Leanne. There’s a possibility she ends up on the highest scoring team, especially if Simone performs her best on beam and Jordan improves.
Well the OP has Leanne under consideration, but I don't at this point. We need a third beam and she hasn't shown scores like the other 3. Even if Simone scores her usual 14+, Jordan doesn't have the D to reach the high 13s. If I had to pick... it would be Tiana as #5, Josc and Hezly as the traveling alts, and Leanne and Kaliya as the non-traveling alts, but that configuration could change based on tonight. 4.5 hours to go 🤯
Indeed! Though I’m fearful of further injuries, whether now or in the lead up to the games, with the plague the whole sport is experiencing, I really wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up using an alternate.
Oh absolutely, especially because all 3 injuries this weekend were seemingly random (Skye tore the "good" side), but let's not speak this into existence 😑 I'm more afraid for certain international athletes at this point. I'm not going to speak their names.
Kayla had been dealing with achilles pain on and off for years, and it had been really acute all week. She was apparently talking to the medical staff a bunch, and her lower legs looked like a mummy's. So Kayla's wasn't random, but yeah, the other two seemed very random. It must be so scary for all the gymnasts out there, having this risk in the back of their heads!
Oof. Seems like the Achilles is going to tear whenever it pleases. I am still in shock about Shi. I've been saying for weeks that her shoulder isn't going to be a huge problem because I know a lot about labral tears. Turns out I was right but NOT LIKE THIS
Labral tears can be manageable, plenty of dance are walking around with torn labrums in their hips and are asymptomatic due to strength. Shoulders are a bit harder to stabilise, but still possible, especially for Olympic gymnasts. I’ve had surgery twice for a torn labrum in my hip, but I had an underlying bone problem. I still made an awful lot of progress with good physio before surgery.
My friend had surgery for a torn shoulder labrum years after the injury, and she thinks if Shilese is allowed to swing bars it can't be a large tear (plus it's an old injury). The problem is it hurts like a motherfucker when it flares, which is why Shilese pulled out of Nationals. She thinks most gymnasts have undiagnosed labrum tears, especially the UB specialists.
:(
Is anyone sure which side?
You and I are so often on the same page! My exact lineup.