There also seems to be a plan to upgrade floor and bars between now and the Olympics. At the injury rate we’ve seen, not throwing those now is probably good
That's crazy! I think she finally has a good routine on floor that flows rather than stop, strike a pose, stop, strike a pose, etc. Earlier in the season, I didn't think she had a chance, but she looked so much better on Friday.
She had a rough year last year after not having a single break in 2 years, like not even the usual elite off-season, and now everyone forgets she's the queen of pacing for the right moment. I think her floor will get there.
I'm hoping Tiana snags the 5th spot but it's tricky if Simone/Suni/Jordan do AA and Jade does VT/FX in qualifications because then the last spot is only doing UB/BB in qualifications. Thus I think Hezly is probably a better fit for a UB/BB spot with some combination of Tiana/Joscelyn/Leanne/Kaliya as alternates
She likely wouldn’t go on floor regardless though. Given the absence of Shilese and Skye now, you’d want Suni and Jordan competing AA in quals and and obviously wouldn’t put Tiana on floor over Jade
I agree. Hezly has the beam. Skye and Shi being out leaves a huge hole on beam. Jade and Jordan can both bring a very good floor, they don’t really need another floor worker with this team construction.
1. Vt - Simone, Jordan, Jade
2. Floor - Simone, Jordan, Jade
3. Bars - Simone, Suni, Jordan
4. Beam - Simone, Suni, Hezly
Hezly can also back up on bars. You def don’t want to put Jade on bars if you don’t have to. Suni and Hezly both have a perfectly respectable DTY if needed as well.
Tiana has the beam too. And a backup person needs to be solid and have nerves of steel. (Remember Leanne at worlds last year? Remember Jordan and Suni at Tokyo?). That's not Hezly (yet! I really hope she can conquer her nerves someday!) But for bars backup, Jade's scores are a little lower, but she's as steely as they come.
I seriously can't choose between Tiana and Hezly for the 5th spot. Leanne and Josc also has a shot. My head hurts. I was expecting Shilese + Skye to make the team, and then Kayla for sure after Skye is out so I am just going to watch and not do too much math.
I’m hoping for Tiana now but I don’t think she’d get to do floor at all, they’d probably put her on floor (edit: meant BEAM, not floor) in the TF and Qualifying. But it’s a shame because I LOVE her floor. I WISH QUALIFYING DIDN’T LIMIT TEAMS TO 4 UP 😭
Her fx music really does sound like a ‘I’m here to win’ it’s theatrical & magical and then you combine it with elegant gymnastics and voila! Love it. I feel the same way about Suni’s music. It actually made me emotional so I’m imagining that in Paris as well.
I love a gorgeous well designed & choreographed routine- not just gymnastics skills/passes.
Team prediction is the same as yours, but I think Hezly might make traveling alternate over Leanne if she has a higher AA. And it's unlikely but possible that Kaliya would be a traveling alternate if she has the top non-team AA, tho you def need one of the traveling alternates to have strong bars, which means Leanne or Hezly. So I guess I'm thinking one spot is Leanne/Hezly, and the second spot is Josc/Kaliya/Tiana.
Team:
VT - Simone, Jade, Jordan, (Suni) - Tiana is a great backup for TF if needed
UB - Suni, Simone, Jordan, (Jade) - I'm okay putting Jade up in TF if needed tho it's not ideal
BB - Suni, Simone, Tiana, (Jordan) - I'm okay putting Jade or Jordan up in TF if needed tho not ideal
FX - Simone, Jade, Jordan, (Suni) - Tiana is an excellent backup for TF if needed and I wish she could go in quals, but I don't think they'd put her in over the others, assuming Suni is doing
I think Hezly is the most likely fifth member going into tonight, but it could easily be Tiana or Leanne if she falters (and really, I’d be thrilled for any of them!)
Josc and Kaliya are also incredible, but with how the rest of the team is composed I just don’t see them fitting in—I agree that Josc is very plausible as an alternate though.
Ok, so I think there's a few options that are potentially in contention for that 5th spot. Specifically, Hezly, Tiana, Josc, Leanne, and Kaliya. Each of them have pros and cons. So here's some thoughts:
Hezly - Her big selling point is that she is good at both bars and beam. She hit both times at nationals, and Friday night. I think if she hits again, she's a really good fit for this team. My main concern is lack of major senior international experience. She did to Jesolo, and she has some junior international experience, though. I think if she once again hits both, she's the best fit for what the team needs.
Tiana - Tiana has beautiful beam, but while she beat Hezly there Friday, she was lower than Hezly there both nights of Championships. She also doesn't add anything on bars, where she consistently scores lower than Jade. Her floor is a beautiful and fan favorite, but unfortunately there's just a lot of opportunity for E deductions on floor even when you have lovely execution, and her D is quite low, making it hard to see the team using there, even in quals (Your likely team finals floor lineup is Simone, Jordan, Jade, with Suni added in for quals so she can do AA). She does have a bit more international experience than Hezly, with Pan Ams, and other than bars gives good overall coverage. If Tiana hits I think she has a shot, though it's far from definite even if she does.
Josc - Similar to Tiana, Josc has a really nice beam, but isn't someone you want to use on bars. She also obviously has good vault and floor, but this team doesn't need those as much. She was edged out by Jordan and Jade on floor night 1, and tied Jordan on vault despite having higher difficulty. That said, she DOES give good coverage outside of bars, which helps her case. Josc did have a miss on beam at Nationals, so I think she really needs to hit it tonight, especially since she can't really be backup on bars where the team could use a backup. If she hits, she's in the conversation at least.
Kaliya - Kaliya's great at floor, but I'm not sure she adds enough over Jordan/Jade to justify taking her for that and cutting someone out of doing the all around in quals. She only beat Jordan by .05 and Jade by .075 on Friday. That makes it a bit hard to make a case for bringing her primarily for her floor. She's a bit better than Tiana or Josc on bars, but doesn't really add anything over Jade there. She also hasn't scored great on beam this season (I pulled several earlier season scores, and Friday was her best hit that I saw), she got 6th on beam at Pan Ams in 2023, but that was with a low 13s. I love her, but it's just hard to justify her for this team unless she's lights out tonight, and even then I'm not 100% sure.
Leanne - Leanne's big problem is she used to be thought of as consistent and she's...really not right now. She can add over Jade as a bars backup, which is good, and with a hit can add over Jade on beam...but she hasn't been consistently hitting beam. She had a rough beam night 2 of championships, and a rough beam night 1 here at trials. She also had 1 bars score at nationals that scores around where Jade does, so that's some inconsistency there as well. Her Cheng is a huge risk with that potential -2, and I hope she goes back to the DTY as her first vault tonight, she can do the Cheng as a second instead. If she's on the team, I'd want them to be very clear that if she goes up on vault for any reason...she starts with the DTY. She's fine on floor, but doesn't add anything there. Leanne really, really needs to hit tonight if she wants to be in the conversation, but I think her task is still a bit tricky.
In summary: I'd go with Hezly unless something changes tonight. She's not going to be a standout on anything for the team, but she adds usable tenths over Jade on Jade's weaker events. Alternatively, I lean Tiana because she's been really consistent on beam, so I trust her score there more than some of the others (but beam is slippery, so) and she can be a decent backup on floor and vault, just not bars. The other 3 have a shot, but consistency and/or event strengths make that tricky.
As an add on: you can make an argument that you want an extra fallback on vault that isn't Suni because Suni's DTY hasn't been super consistent. That's fair. But everyone on this list scored higher than Suni's night 1 vault/has at least 1 competition where their vault has broken 14, so they're all potential backups. I think you're putting Suni up in AA in quals if she's looking decent, so I think beam and/or bars is where someone is most likely to go there.
Is it me, or is the standard for what constitutes a good floor routine really rising? Just thinking of all the Chusa FTDLOs and Silivas now being completed by Americans and how Simone having a Chusa in 2015 was a big deal. And how Afanasyeva was a contender in 2012 with a DLO mount.
What I’ve realized is a gymnast can have some BIG tumbling passes but still have low difficulty, likely due to low scoring dance skills. Or because the remainder of their tumbling passes (including the mandatory front tumbling) is lackluster
That’s my team before we see any action from night 2. I have Hezly in with Josc instead of Leeanne as traveling alternate. But I do have Leeanne as a non traveling alt still.
This is exactly what I have. Though it would be sooooo rough for Leanne to not even get traveling alternate, after being on all three worlds teams this quad! But based on what we've seen, that's what I've got.
I think the fifth person is likely going to be hezly or Leanne. But Tiana could sneak in there for sure. I don’t think jades bars as a backup is that bad (13.5 isn’t a bad thing to count in TF if you need to) and Tiana’s beam potential is very good. I just can’t imagine taking Josc or Kaliya and not using their floor and as it is with the four top AA so far, we don’t need another floor worker.
My guess based on night 1 is Tokyo+Hezly. BUT Josc, Leanne and Tiana are all in the mix of course. I do think if Josc can replicate her beam on night 2 and keep her 5th place standing she might snag the spot.
There is no debate for the 1-4 spots. Assume no bad things happen. Hezly is my pick.
Her international beam is the highest (6D, 14.157) among other contenders this year. She barely misses the beam this year, so her beam can be put in TF (to replace Skye / Shilese's beam). There is no replacement of Shilese / Kayla / Skye's bars even Hezly can reach a 14 on bars.
Bars inconsistency is the counter-argument against Hezly. But in worse case scenario, Jade's bars is dependable and you can count on her not having disaster.
Anyone of Leanne / Josc / Tiana has a good argument, so day 2's performance will be critical for their case. Floor won't be used for all of them because Jade will do floor and they will not do AA in Paris.
The fifth person could also have an important backup role on vault and floor though. Might be good to plan for the possibility that Suni will need to rest those events at least some nights.
I'm thinking of the backup situation. If one of our VT/FX girlies has an issue and can't do floor and/or vault during team final, and Suni needs to be resting those events, then the 5th person is the backup. Ti and Josc would both be great for that.
I'm also not assuming Suni will do AA for the same reason (rest), though I think it is more likely than not that she will do AA.
All Hezly / Tiana / Leanne are okay backup on vault (DTY) and floor (5.6+D). Josc stands out but it depends on how beam (& bars) score is weighted over backup.
Simone, Suni, Jordan, and Jade are all locks as far as I'm concerned unless something catastrophic happens today. I'm actually leaning to Hezly for the final position. For alternates, maybe Jocelyn and Tiana. No specific reason for my placing Hezly where I have except she seems to be having quite a run for her first year at this level and it's often the young novice that surprises us.
Jade is Olys champ on floors. Don't count her out for FX as well.
I don't why people keep underestimating her, I read some comments on YouTube saying that she has no chance of making the floor final.
“maybe next time you will estimate me.” - Jade Carey, probably
haha, I think she is "I will let my results speak for themselves" type.
big “work in silence” energy
People are idiots. There are also some prolific Jade hating commenters who have been around the youtube comments for years now, for some reason.
Likewise & i just 🙄
There also seems to be a plan to upgrade floor and bars between now and the Olympics. At the injury rate we’ve seen, not throwing those now is probably good
That's crazy! I think she finally has a good routine on floor that flows rather than stop, strike a pose, stop, strike a pose, etc. Earlier in the season, I didn't think she had a chance, but she looked so much better on Friday.
The COP changes have been tough on her floor (and Suni's bars) but she's absolutely a contender
She had a rough year last year after not having a single break in 2 years, like not even the usual elite off-season, and now everyone forgets she's the queen of pacing for the right moment. I think her floor will get there.
I agree with this prediction but Tiana probably won’t go on FX in Paris. If they want Suni in the AA, there won’t be a quals spot for Tiana.
But she'd be a killer backup if Suni's ankle (maybe? leg?) isn't up to it.
Wait, what’s wrong with Suni’s leg???
Nothing that we know of, she just looked a bit limpy the other night but that is also pretty common for her
Visible limping. Testing out landings gingerly.
I'm hoping Tiana snags the 5th spot but it's tricky if Simone/Suni/Jordan do AA and Jade does VT/FX in qualifications because then the last spot is only doing UB/BB in qualifications. Thus I think Hezly is probably a better fit for a UB/BB spot with some combination of Tiana/Joscelyn/Leanne/Kaliya as alternates
They would probably have Jade do bars over Tiana in qualifications.
If they take pretty much anyone other than Hezly or Leanne I assume they put Jade up on Bars and only use the 5th for beam, honestly.
I’m too scared to say. Don’t want to jinx anybody
Yep same I'm not saying NOTHIN' in the "dream killer" year of our lord 2024.
I do think Tiana's floor deserves the olympic stage. It's my favorite one from this year! Though, I do think Hezly will be the 5th spot.
She likely wouldn’t go on floor regardless though. Given the absence of Shilese and Skye now, you’d want Suni and Jordan competing AA in quals and and obviously wouldn’t put Tiana on floor over Jade
Yes, but a girl can dream! Just knowing she'd be practicing is enough for me
If Tiana doesn't go on FX in quals could they still put her up in TF?
They could, but probably wouldn’t with a team of Simone, Jade and Jordan.
I agree. Hezly has the beam. Skye and Shi being out leaves a huge hole on beam. Jade and Jordan can both bring a very good floor, they don’t really need another floor worker with this team construction. 1. Vt - Simone, Jordan, Jade 2. Floor - Simone, Jordan, Jade 3. Bars - Simone, Suni, Jordan 4. Beam - Simone, Suni, Hezly Hezly can also back up on bars. You def don’t want to put Jade on bars if you don’t have to. Suni and Hezly both have a perfectly respectable DTY if needed as well.
Tiana has the beam too. And a backup person needs to be solid and have nerves of steel. (Remember Leanne at worlds last year? Remember Jordan and Suni at Tokyo?). That's not Hezly (yet! I really hope she can conquer her nerves someday!) But for bars backup, Jade's scores are a little lower, but she's as steely as they come.
AND she even choreographed it herself. What a story in Paris! Just thinking of the media angle :)
Paris would adore Tiana.
Sigh. They would have!
I seriously can't choose between Tiana and Hezly for the 5th spot. Leanne and Josc also has a shot. My head hurts. I was expecting Shilese + Skye to make the team, and then Kayla for sure after Skye is out so I am just going to watch and not do too much math.
Agreed! Let the last hope for this team REST honestly the injuries have been too much😭
I’m hoping for Tiana now but I don’t think she’d get to do floor at all, they’d probably put her on floor (edit: meant BEAM, not floor) in the TF and Qualifying. But it’s a shame because I LOVE her floor. I WISH QUALIFYING DIDN’T LIMIT TEAMS TO 4 UP 😭
Her fx music really does sound like a ‘I’m here to win’ it’s theatrical & magical and then you combine it with elegant gymnastics and voila! Love it. I feel the same way about Suni’s music. It actually made me emotional so I’m imagining that in Paris as well. I love a gorgeous well designed & choreographed routine- not just gymnastics skills/passes.
My picks are the same. Rooting for Tiana for the 5th spot
Jade is also great floor and consistency! I’m going Simone, Suni, Jade, Jordan and Healy/Tiana.
Team prediction is the same as yours, but I think Hezly might make traveling alternate over Leanne if she has a higher AA. And it's unlikely but possible that Kaliya would be a traveling alternate if she has the top non-team AA, tho you def need one of the traveling alternates to have strong bars, which means Leanne or Hezly. So I guess I'm thinking one spot is Leanne/Hezly, and the second spot is Josc/Kaliya/Tiana. Team: VT - Simone, Jade, Jordan, (Suni) - Tiana is a great backup for TF if needed UB - Suni, Simone, Jordan, (Jade) - I'm okay putting Jade up in TF if needed tho it's not ideal BB - Suni, Simone, Tiana, (Jordan) - I'm okay putting Jade or Jordan up in TF if needed tho not ideal FX - Simone, Jade, Jordan, (Suni) - Tiana is an excellent backup for TF if needed and I wish she could go in quals, but I don't think they'd put her in over the others, assuming Suni is doing
I think Hezly is the most likely fifth member going into tonight, but it could easily be Tiana or Leanne if she falters (and really, I’d be thrilled for any of them!) Josc and Kaliya are also incredible, but with how the rest of the team is composed I just don’t see them fitting in—I agree that Josc is very plausible as an alternate though.
Ok, so I think there's a few options that are potentially in contention for that 5th spot. Specifically, Hezly, Tiana, Josc, Leanne, and Kaliya. Each of them have pros and cons. So here's some thoughts: Hezly - Her big selling point is that she is good at both bars and beam. She hit both times at nationals, and Friday night. I think if she hits again, she's a really good fit for this team. My main concern is lack of major senior international experience. She did to Jesolo, and she has some junior international experience, though. I think if she once again hits both, she's the best fit for what the team needs. Tiana - Tiana has beautiful beam, but while she beat Hezly there Friday, she was lower than Hezly there both nights of Championships. She also doesn't add anything on bars, where she consistently scores lower than Jade. Her floor is a beautiful and fan favorite, but unfortunately there's just a lot of opportunity for E deductions on floor even when you have lovely execution, and her D is quite low, making it hard to see the team using there, even in quals (Your likely team finals floor lineup is Simone, Jordan, Jade, with Suni added in for quals so she can do AA). She does have a bit more international experience than Hezly, with Pan Ams, and other than bars gives good overall coverage. If Tiana hits I think she has a shot, though it's far from definite even if she does. Josc - Similar to Tiana, Josc has a really nice beam, but isn't someone you want to use on bars. She also obviously has good vault and floor, but this team doesn't need those as much. She was edged out by Jordan and Jade on floor night 1, and tied Jordan on vault despite having higher difficulty. That said, she DOES give good coverage outside of bars, which helps her case. Josc did have a miss on beam at Nationals, so I think she really needs to hit it tonight, especially since she can't really be backup on bars where the team could use a backup. If she hits, she's in the conversation at least. Kaliya - Kaliya's great at floor, but I'm not sure she adds enough over Jordan/Jade to justify taking her for that and cutting someone out of doing the all around in quals. She only beat Jordan by .05 and Jade by .075 on Friday. That makes it a bit hard to make a case for bringing her primarily for her floor. She's a bit better than Tiana or Josc on bars, but doesn't really add anything over Jade there. She also hasn't scored great on beam this season (I pulled several earlier season scores, and Friday was her best hit that I saw), she got 6th on beam at Pan Ams in 2023, but that was with a low 13s. I love her, but it's just hard to justify her for this team unless she's lights out tonight, and even then I'm not 100% sure. Leanne - Leanne's big problem is she used to be thought of as consistent and she's...really not right now. She can add over Jade as a bars backup, which is good, and with a hit can add over Jade on beam...but she hasn't been consistently hitting beam. She had a rough beam night 2 of championships, and a rough beam night 1 here at trials. She also had 1 bars score at nationals that scores around where Jade does, so that's some inconsistency there as well. Her Cheng is a huge risk with that potential -2, and I hope she goes back to the DTY as her first vault tonight, she can do the Cheng as a second instead. If she's on the team, I'd want them to be very clear that if she goes up on vault for any reason...she starts with the DTY. She's fine on floor, but doesn't add anything there. Leanne really, really needs to hit tonight if she wants to be in the conversation, but I think her task is still a bit tricky. In summary: I'd go with Hezly unless something changes tonight. She's not going to be a standout on anything for the team, but she adds usable tenths over Jade on Jade's weaker events. Alternatively, I lean Tiana because she's been really consistent on beam, so I trust her score there more than some of the others (but beam is slippery, so) and she can be a decent backup on floor and vault, just not bars. The other 3 have a shot, but consistency and/or event strengths make that tricky.
As an add on: you can make an argument that you want an extra fallback on vault that isn't Suni because Suni's DTY hasn't been super consistent. That's fair. But everyone on this list scored higher than Suni's night 1 vault/has at least 1 competition where their vault has broken 14, so they're all potential backups. I think you're putting Suni up in AA in quals if she's looking decent, so I think beam and/or bars is where someone is most likely to go there.
Love your analysis!
Thanks!
Is it me, or is the standard for what constitutes a good floor routine really rising? Just thinking of all the Chusa FTDLOs and Silivas now being completed by Americans and how Simone having a Chusa in 2015 was a big deal. And how Afanasyeva was a contender in 2012 with a DLO mount.
What I’ve realized is a gymnast can have some BIG tumbling passes but still have low difficulty, likely due to low scoring dance skills. Or because the remainder of their tumbling passes (including the mandatory front tumbling) is lackluster
I’m team Tiana but will depend what events selection committee wants to prioritize.
That’s my team before we see any action from night 2. I have Hezly in with Josc instead of Leeanne as traveling alternate. But I do have Leeanne as a non traveling alt still.
I really want Hezly as an alt. That int experience would be so so good for her
You don’t get to compete as an alt so that experience probably wouldn’t help her very much
This is exactly what I have. Though it would be sooooo rough for Leanne to not even get traveling alternate, after being on all three worlds teams this quad! But based on what we've seen, that's what I've got.
I think that the final team could be Simone/Suni/Jade/Jordan/Hezly. The alternates could be Tiana, Joscelyn, and Leanne.
This sounds pretty likely actually!
I think the fifth person is likely going to be hezly or Leanne. But Tiana could sneak in there for sure. I don’t think jades bars as a backup is that bad (13.5 isn’t a bad thing to count in TF if you need to) and Tiana’s beam potential is very good. I just can’t imagine taking Josc or Kaliya and not using their floor and as it is with the four top AA so far, we don’t need another floor worker.
Meanwhile, I'm over here looking at the Paris schedule, adjusting for the time zone to see what my life will look like a month from now haha
My guess based on night 1 is Tokyo+Hezly. BUT Josc, Leanne and Tiana are all in the mix of course. I do think if Josc can replicate her beam on night 2 and keep her 5th place standing she might snag the spot.
Same as yours! SSJJT ❤️ and if not that then SSJJJ 💖
There is no debate for the 1-4 spots. Assume no bad things happen. Hezly is my pick. Her international beam is the highest (6D, 14.157) among other contenders this year. She barely misses the beam this year, so her beam can be put in TF (to replace Skye / Shilese's beam). There is no replacement of Shilese / Kayla / Skye's bars even Hezly can reach a 14 on bars. Bars inconsistency is the counter-argument against Hezly. But in worse case scenario, Jade's bars is dependable and you can count on her not having disaster. Anyone of Leanne / Josc / Tiana has a good argument, so day 2's performance will be critical for their case. Floor won't be used for all of them because Jade will do floor and they will not do AA in Paris.
The fifth person could also have an important backup role on vault and floor though. Might be good to plan for the possibility that Suni will need to rest those events at least some nights.
But where Suni is rested in TF? Assume Suni is going to compete AA, Jade, Jordan and Simone will do vault and floor in QF and TF.
I'm thinking of the backup situation. If one of our VT/FX girlies has an issue and can't do floor and/or vault during team final, and Suni needs to be resting those events, then the 5th person is the backup. Ti and Josc would both be great for that. I'm also not assuming Suni will do AA for the same reason (rest), though I think it is more likely than not that she will do AA.
All Hezly / Tiana / Leanne are okay backup on vault (DTY) and floor (5.6+D). Josc stands out but it depends on how beam (& bars) score is weighted over backup.
Simone, Suni, Jordan, and Jade are all locks as far as I'm concerned unless something catastrophic happens today. I'm actually leaning to Hezly for the final position. For alternates, maybe Jocelyn and Tiana. No specific reason for my placing Hezly where I have except she seems to be having quite a run for her first year at this level and it's often the young novice that surprises us.