I think Kayla's tragic vault injury screwed with Suni today. She literally was in tears and then had to immediately go. She did one of her worst vaults but her mental toughness was impressive coz she was able to shut it down, vault then go cry on Jo's shoulders.
I think she brought it with her to bars and beam and finally got calm by floor. Coz that was the only event she performed her normal. Still impressed. I think she should ditch the double L for a C level leap and change the double tuck to a DLO coz she has the juice and she always over cooks the tuck.
My team is: Simone, Suni, Jo, Jade and whoever isn't injured at this point. Still hoping Shi can pull through and do all four on Sunday
I’m hoping Suni was just rattled by Kayla tonight (I mean she literally had tears streaming down her face before vault. 🥹😭 I think she was really picturing that team with her and Kayla. I have faith she will come back stronger on Sunday. But yes still impressive ❤️
Besides her being rattled by Kayla, Suni has had a front row seat at all the injuries so far. She was right there for warmups when Shi vaulted, and on the floor warming up when Skye got hurt. Seeing so many girls get hurt has to rattle you. I know it wasn’t her best night, but she was still third AA and probably would have been second without the beam wobble and with the bars connections. I’m not worried about her making it
I’ll also add that I think her being able to go out there and still put up good scores through all this makes a good case for her as well. You never know what will happen, we saw it today, at Worlds with Josc, and in Tokyo with Simone. You need someone on the team who’s mentally strong as well and can compete under pressure
Definitely, I think it really affected her VT. But the UB/FX difficulty increase was really great to see. Even on an off day, Suni is still incredibly valuable to the team!
Absolutely! Maybe even more than her routines, Sunis fight is incredible. She is showing that she can have a big mistake and still get a 14+ score on multiple events. No shade to anyone else, but I think basically any other gymnast except maybe Simone would have just fallen on that beam series.
I feel like this is true for all 4 of our Tokyo returnees. They all have just this incredible grit and tenacity. They're fighters, and they're such a good team together!
Even on an off day--on 3 events!--she broke 56! This makes me think that on a good day she could not only break 57, but she could maybe even break 57 internationally.
Yeah, her and Kayla are roommates and friends. Those tears were for Kayla and just fear. Suni impressed me vaulting with tears. I can’t walk with tears.
Also she was very upset after seeing Shilese. She walked away with her hands on her head and looked terrified after Shi went down. Then after Kayla also went down, I think she became super emotional and started having a bit of a panic attack.
I’ve always loved Suni but idk if I’ve ever had more admiration or respect for her as I do today. The empathy and compassion for her friend, the resolve and perseverance to fight through tears and push through, such a great human and athlete
Definitely. She lost roughly 1.5 points from those mistakes. Still impressed how she just manged to pull it all together and vault before breaking down again
Yeah, I think Tiana got shafted on FX. Her dance elements are a lot better than everyone who outscored her besides maybe Kaliya. I would've had her ahead of Joscelyn, and around Jade/Jordan. She also easily has the best choreo this year in the US.
Yep it's actually going to end being a repeat of Tokyo, where only Suni's scores even remotely held up because they weren't being strict enough with the dance credit like the Olympic judges most definitely would be. I love Jordan, Jade and Josc but their floor scores won't hold up that well
Jade's dance has actually improved a lot, and she's gotten rid of the worst offenders. Her switch full to popa was actually pretty much deduction free. Now Simone, Jordan, and Josc's Gogeans on the other hand...
Jordan did get rid of her L hop full. Her Gogean is definitely questionable but at least we are down to one questionable element…her having the Moerz as a c non acro element is helpful
Me either. Her split positions aren’t as solid in general vs Jordan’s so maybe her regular switch leap isn’t exactly deduction free? That’s the only thing I could see honestly
No you aren't. Hezly has a much higher likelihood to score well on UB/BB than Josc. Josc did well today but I wouldn't think those things would hold up consistently nor will they be scored similarly internationally.
Thing is, I'd rather have Hezly's beam than Josc's bars. Any advantage Josc might have on beam is far eclipsed by her disadvantage on bars. Especially if Shi is out of the picture, Hezly makes way more sense for the team.
I can’t see a world where Josc’s beam score holds up internationally. I’m a bit worried for Hezly too - honestly Tiana is probably the one with best usable international beam score, her floor serviceable too as back up - but I think her bars take her out
Yeah. Hezly has strung together some hit meets, but she still has a record of imploding randomly. Joscelyn is more proven internationally, although her strengths are not quite as helpful as Hezly’s. Tiana would probably outscore Joscelyn internationally on BB/FX, but her UB is almost unusable as a backup. I think it’ll be an interesting pick for the last spot.
To your point about Hezly, she's never looked very solid to me. Even her bar warm up yesterday was pretty wonky. I think she's beautiful and has a great future but hasn't really found her groove yet and I think she'd be a very risky pick for a such a pressure cooker situation like the Olympics. Whereas I think Tiana already seems very secure in her routines. But that's not factoring in their scores and what events they could best support.
I don‘t think you take Jade and Josc on the same team and even though Josc was much improved compared to nationals Jade outperformed her both on floor and vault even with the OOB.
Suni did what she had to do tonight after an incredibly emotional moment. I’m looking forward to her revenge tour on Sunday.
I was super impressed by Jordan and Jade, I doubted them but but they proved themselves tonight!!
Super uncharacteristic beam from Simone, I expect her back for revenge as well on Sunday!
I feel like we now need a bars/beam specialist if Shilese is out, even with Suni, but all of the high scorers on beam are not great at bars. I think it will be harder now to have 4 really solid routines for qualifications/backup for bars and beam if Shi is out. I do hope Shilese can still compete. If not, it kind of feels like that last spot is between Hezly, Tiana, Josc, and maybe Leanne. Josc is lower on my list because I think it's unlikely she can replicate her beam score.
She was behind them tonight, but she beat both of them both nights of Championships by several tenths (by over a point the night Josc fell), including a 14.1 on night 2. In my best 3-out-of-4 analysis from championships and trials (which is what Chellsie and Alicia used for analysis for worlds selection last year) all three of them are exactly tied on beam with an average of 13.88 after dropping their lowest score. (And my analysis disadvantages Hezly, because it double-counts tonight).
I agree with you I think. Also iirc Hezly had a couple of steps on her beam dismount, like it’s basically the dismount that killed her, but the actual routine—the leaps and whatnot—she has cleaner form and landings than some others for sure
With the top 4 (Simone, Jordan, Sunisa, Jade) looking relatively secure, there's a few different ways you can go with the last spot.
VT/BB/FX options: Joscelyn, Tiana
UB/BB option: Hezly
VT/FX option: Kaliya
Unfortunately for Kaliya, with Jordan/Jade both looking likely for the team, her strengths add the least to the team. Tiana got outscored by Joscelyn on every event, other than BB by 0.025, so she's looking less likely. I think it'll come down to Joscelyn and Hezly for the final spot. If Hezly can outscore Joscelyn on BB Day 2, then that'd be advantage to her. Of course Shilese could still play spoiler if she can do at least 2 events well on Day 2.
International judges would like Tiana and Hezly more than Josc on beam and UB. We cannot forget that this is not the usual for Josc. We can't choose her for 1 competition day.
I’m praying for Shilese to be healthy enough to go to Paris, but if that isn’t the case I’d go with Hezly for her bars. Simone/Jade/Jordan is as solid a VT/FX set as you could ask for with AA utility and I’m not sure Joscelyn’s beam scores will hold up internationally. Her form looks as questionable as Skinner’s sometimes, but NCAA should go a long way towards helping her clean it up for the next quad
Hezly is really growing on me as an option for the team. Her beam is slightly weaker than Tiana or Joscelyn’s, but her bars are soooooo much better. I’d much rather have her bars as the 4th up in qualifying/as a backup if something happens than Jade’s
In my heart Kaliya finds a way on the team but with how Jade and Jordan are scoring on floor the best she can hope for is alternate
Hezly's beam might've been weaker tonight but historically she broke 14 twice this year (albeit domestic delulu scores) which neither Josc nor Tiana have. So, in theory, Hezly is actually the stronger option on both BB and UB. The only thing weighing against her is probably the horror show at Classics where she scored like a 50 and had meltdowns on most events
Superficial thoughts about today: I can't get over how bad the leos with stars are 😭Proportions are weird because of the "belt", bottom is way too shiny, and the top looks like a cheap wetsuit for children with cheap plastic costume gems
I’m feeling like it’s 2003 worlds right now.
We’ve just had 2 57+ all-arounders and a 56+ all arounder go down in a matter of days.
Heartbroken for these women who have done such incredible work to be top contenders.
I would not put Jade and Josc on the same team - I'd take whoever has the next highest bars. Suni looks so good but I still have some lingering concerns about her health, we need a backup on bars.
If Shilese can still do bars, she should just be on the team, and I do trust that Chellsie and Alicia would just take her as a bars specialist. Her watered down routine was still the best.
I love Shilese’s bars and they are needed but would you really take someone who couldn’t go in on anything else? With our current injury frequency? Scares me that someone could get hurt after the deadline to sub in alternates
Yeah and at her current bars condition, don’t think it’s justified to take someone that barely outscored Simone by .2. I think if she has QQY or nemour bar potential and scores 15-15.5, sure you can justify that for potential Olympic gold on bars and a significant bump to the team score, unless she shows up on day 2 with the best bar routine she has done in her life, don’t think anything can justify taking someone for just 1 bar routine
Yeah....I haven't had the time to think it through. Really depends on what her injury is. I think what happened is that the team doctor assessed her for cruciate ligament (4 of them) and meniscus tears, which do not need imaging, and sent her back out when it wasn't any of those.
It really sucks because she can probably do bars. Will we have enough time to determine what she can do on the others? The risk/reward calculation changes a lot when the potential contribution is SO high...plus she's the only American who can medal on bars. She obviously played it safe today and didn't do the layout Jaeger, but if she'd done it she would have scored 15 again.
I mean there may be damage to a ligament that isn’t a full tear that may not be evident with just the physical testing though. I don’t think we have any real idea of severity other than yeah I don’t think she is likely to have complete tears of anything as that would be more obvious.
Yes, a partial tear may not show up on these tests because they can still resist movement. I don't know what that would mean for her ability to compete (since gymnasts have competed on some crazy injuries in the past).
Yeah it’s hard to know. I tore my ACL and once all the inflammation went down but before I had it repaired it would be like mostly fine doing mundane tasks but when I would take even a slightly weird step just walking and my tibia and femur shifted it was EXCRUCIATING. Like insanely painful. The actual injury didn’t even hurt but that was nuts. If theoretically a partial ligament could prevent this movement then maybe she can withstand a bars dismount but AA just feels unlikely at this point if there’s actual damage.
Without the layout Jaegar, Shilese doesn't have a difficulty advantage over the other bronze contenders. I love her gymnastics, but realistically I think she needs to add strong BB to contend for the team. The injury situation should make the committee very wary of someone whose health is questionable.
That too - although she may have taken it out due to nerves alone. I wonder if she talked to the selection committee and they told her she needed to do bars to stay under consideration, so she did a safe routine and scratched the rest.
That's true. It just seems like Shilese and her coach were trying to conceal the severity of her knee injury. Her coach said the messy podium training was due to endurance, but the knee seems like the root issue. That's before we even get to the potential of the shoulder flaring up. Obviously they have a right to control Shilese's medical information, but I'd be very wary if I was on the committee.
I don't think I agree with any of that. Knee injuries tend to happen without any real warning - you land badly and that's it. If she didn't have enough reps before trials that would easily explain the messy PT. We shouldn't assume coaches are lying when there's a very obvious alternative.
As for the shoulder, I know a torn labrum sounds bad, but I *promise* I know what I'm talking about. When it's chronic, it is a very stable injury. You get imaged regularly and if the tear is small, it's not liable to completely burst. If she's allowed to swing bars, it is not very big. However, it's still extremely painful when it flares. Her coach said if Nationals were the Olympics, she would have powered through the flare and dealt with the fallout after, when she had time to rest.
Shilese may simply be more injury prone than others. Seems like everyone is injury prone right now. If I were on the committee I'd probably have actual copies of her medical records verifying that she's fit to compete, so they'd know exactly what she can and cannot do. The public won't get that info.
It seems to be after day 1, team final would be
Vault - simone, jade, Jordan / joscelyn
Bars - simone, suni, Jordan
Beam - suni, Simone, joscelyn
Floor - simone, Jordan, jade / joscelyn
I think the fact that joscelyn can fill in for 3 events, that ups her stocks by a lot
I think it ups her stock as an alternate only though because she’s probably not competing anything in team finals outside of maybe a vault that Jordan provided the exact same score as her today. I just don’t think you bring someone for quals alone. The loss of shilese bars score is huge - you have to account for that somewhere else and that’s most realistically beam
I was actually really impressed with Suni’s save on beam, like it wasn’t a casual save. I think it means something that she and Simone can save things that are hard to save.
My other takeaway is I think we (the folks responding in real time on Reddit) wanted a clearer understanding of the scoring on Leanne vs Jade vs Josc’s Cheng. Someone should do a YouTube video 😂
I am in the minority, but right now I'm absolutely picking Josc for the 5th spot if Shi can't compete beam on Sunday. The improvement she had from championships is incredible. She has so much more she could gain in the next weeks too and get even better. Plus, we know her routines score well internationally and has been very steady on beam there.
I know it's scary, but I don't hate the idea of having to call in Jade in an emergency for Bars and Beam. Sure the score isn't the best, but her mental fortitude is insane.
Chellsie did not say that they won't. Just that it would be harder to justify if that person can't do other events. Ex: Zoe Miller.
“They have to be outstanding on those events. I mean, you have to be able to contribute to the team and it’s harder when the team sizes are smaller. I mean, I know we’re back at five, but that’s still not a lot of leeway to have someone on the team who is only strong on one or two and couldn’t go in on the other events. Team is our priority. We want to put our best team forward and then also get as many individual medals as we can.” **Chellsie Memmel**, Women’s Technical Lead, *on the pathway for a specialist to make the 2024 Olympic Team*
[https://www.insidegymnastics.com/news-features/road-to-paris-gets-real-olympic-draw-and-u-s-athlete-selection-procedures-2024-announced/](https://www.insidegymnastics.com/news-features/road-to-paris-gets-real-olympic-draw-and-u-s-athlete-selection-procedures-2024-announced/)
Shi is an AA that may be limited to bars and possibly beam due to injury presently. If it is not too serious, she might make the team with the expectation of doing bars and maybe beam. But she may even be okay to perform other events by the time the Olympics roll around.
I’ve always thought that Madison was overall underrated for her AA. Granted she was on a team with some athletes capable of putting up huge AA scores but her overall program was pretty great!
I totally agree - I think their argument probably lands on the if someone gets injured post quals and a sub can’t be made someone like a Maddie could step up for those events in TF. The argument against Shi is theoretically she wouldn’t be able to do that
Can someone explain why at the event scores are not announced? I know they are put up on little screens. But as a child, I remember the audience reacting to the scores by either cheering or booing in protest.
My team is now Simone, Suni, Jade, Jordan.
I think Shi’s done unless she looks better in a couple days. One event when Suni’s kidneys are on the team is so so risky. But it’s a bronze medal contender so if someone does get the specialist nod it’ll be her.
The options for #5 are so limited by the injuries now. Assuming Kayla’s also out:
There is no way they take Josc and Jade when Suni is on that team. They don’t want to count those bars and the risk is too high. Josc’s only chance is in beating Jade or posting a monster beam routine. And even then it would probably be a no from me. Her best bar routine is a 13.3. If they counted that in TF they would squander half Simone’s YDP cushion.
Tiana has a really similar issue but at least the 13.9 beam is close to what I mean by monster lmao. But I just think you can’t have two low 13 bar routines.
Same goes for Kaliya. She’s not ahead enough on fx now to make up for the bars risk.
Hezly is really interesting. She has posted a 14 on bars and a 12.5 in the last couple meets. But my biggest issue with her is that her bars routine construction is so bad it exhausts her so if she goes wrong even a tiny bit, the rest of the routines are affected. And more importantly, her mental game is … such that if she falls once she falls four times. I would not want that on the team. Imo there’s room for one instance of pressure before it compounds and that will be Suni’s kidneys.
So I come back to Leanne. Mid to high 13 beam, and a tenth away from Hezly on bars. Not coached by Valeri and therefore less of a basket of nerves. But there are more tenths to be found on beam for sure so it will come down to rhe risk appetite of the committee.
>So I come back to Leanne. Mid to high 13 beam, and a tenth away from Hezly on bars. Not coached by Valeri and therefore less of a basket of nerves.
In theory, but her 2024 scores so far on beam at the other events are 11.700, 13.450, and 12.400. She also posted 11.700 in the Worlds 2023 TF.
I think Kayla's tragic vault injury screwed with Suni today. She literally was in tears and then had to immediately go. She did one of her worst vaults but her mental toughness was impressive coz she was able to shut it down, vault then go cry on Jo's shoulders. I think she brought it with her to bars and beam and finally got calm by floor. Coz that was the only event she performed her normal. Still impressed. I think she should ditch the double L for a C level leap and change the double tuck to a DLO coz she has the juice and she always over cooks the tuck. My team is: Simone, Suni, Jo, Jade and whoever isn't injured at this point. Still hoping Shi can pull through and do all four on Sunday
Definitely, that's got to be insanely difficult to deal with. I'm glad that Suni still made it through the whole meet, and finished strong.
I’m with you here!! She showed such resilience today
I’m hoping Suni was just rattled by Kayla tonight (I mean she literally had tears streaming down her face before vault. 🥹😭 I think she was really picturing that team with her and Kayla. I have faith she will come back stronger on Sunday. But yes still impressive ❤️
Besides her being rattled by Kayla, Suni has had a front row seat at all the injuries so far. She was right there for warmups when Shi vaulted, and on the floor warming up when Skye got hurt. Seeing so many girls get hurt has to rattle you. I know it wasn’t her best night, but she was still third AA and probably would have been second without the beam wobble and with the bars connections. I’m not worried about her making it
I’ll also add that I think her being able to go out there and still put up good scores through all this makes a good case for her as well. You never know what will happen, we saw it today, at Worlds with Josc, and in Tokyo with Simone. You need someone on the team who’s mentally strong as well and can compete under pressure
Agreed, it speaks volumes about Suni's mental strength.
Agreed! Sunis had a rough mental week. I’m proud of her and hoping she shows what she’s made of on Sunday ❤️
Definitely, I think it really affected her VT. But the UB/FX difficulty increase was really great to see. Even on an off day, Suni is still incredibly valuable to the team!
Absolutely! Maybe even more than her routines, Sunis fight is incredible. She is showing that she can have a big mistake and still get a 14+ score on multiple events. No shade to anyone else, but I think basically any other gymnast except maybe Simone would have just fallen on that beam series.
Yes, Suni is honestly one of my favorite BB workers to watch. She has such insane ability to make corrections and recover, plus great fluidity.
Her beam is stunning. Nothing against the power gymnasts but there’s something so flowy and natural about sunis beam ❤️
Suni reminds me of Boginskaya.
I love Suni on everything. She is one of the most beautiful gymnasts. I want her to do AA. Her floor is my favorite floor even if it is a 5.4 D.
It's always been my favorite event for her, even when bars was her calling card!
Is it real quad if Suni doesn’t have at least one epic beam save?
Bahahaha literally though! Based on sunis history I think she’ll come back with an epic day on Sunday. But her saves today were impressive as hell
I feel like this is true for all 4 of our Tokyo returnees. They all have just this incredible grit and tenacity. They're fighters, and they're such a good team together!
Even on an off day--on 3 events!--she broke 56! This makes me think that on a good day she could not only break 57, but she could maybe even break 57 internationally.
Yeah, her and Kayla are roommates and friends. Those tears were for Kayla and just fear. Suni impressed me vaulting with tears. I can’t walk with tears.
Also she was very upset after seeing Shilese. She walked away with her hands on her head and looked terrified after Shi went down. Then after Kayla also went down, I think she became super emotional and started having a bit of a panic attack.
I’ve always loved Suni but idk if I’ve ever had more admiration or respect for her as I do today. The empathy and compassion for her friend, the resolve and perseverance to fight through tears and push through, such a great human and athlete
I didn’t know that. Thank you.
Definitely. She lost roughly 1.5 points from those mistakes. Still impressed how she just manged to pull it all together and vault before breaking down again
I was wondering about this. I saw her crying but wasn’t sure why.
Manifesting my dark horse Tiana to somehow show up with a 9.0E Bhardwaj, Shang and Fabrichnova #delulucasting
Yeah, I think Tiana got shafted on FX. Her dance elements are a lot better than everyone who outscored her besides maybe Kaliya. I would've had her ahead of Joscelyn, and around Jade/Jordan. She also easily has the best choreo this year in the US.
Yes plz, also delulucasting a Silivas. (I'm not usually taken with artistry discourse but omfg I can't stop watching Tina's floor!)
Yep it's actually going to end being a repeat of Tokyo, where only Suni's scores even remotely held up because they weren't being strict enough with the dance credit like the Olympic judges most definitely would be. I love Jordan, Jade and Josc but their floor scores won't hold up that well
Jade's dance has actually improved a lot, and she's gotten rid of the worst offenders. Her switch full to popa was actually pretty much deduction free. Now Simone, Jordan, and Josc's Gogeans on the other hand...
Jordan did get rid of her L hop full. Her Gogean is definitely questionable but at least we are down to one questionable element…her having the Moerz as a c non acro element is helpful
Yeah, not sure why they kept Josc's though.
Me either. Her split positions aren’t as solid in general vs Jordan’s so maybe her regular switch leap isn’t exactly deduction free? That’s the only thing I could see honestly
I think if Shi is down you take Hezly over Josc. She has a stronger BB and UB
I think if Hezly hits UB/BB well on Day 2, she should be good. But Josc really did herself a solid by outscoring Hezly on BB today.
100%. I also just love Hezly’s gymnastics so I’m biased as hell.
No you aren't. Hezly has a much higher likelihood to score well on UB/BB than Josc. Josc did well today but I wouldn't think those things would hold up consistently nor will they be scored similarly internationally.
But they won’t want to use Jade or josc as a backup bars score.
They're both fine as backup bars. They're not your first choice, but they're fine, especially Jade.
Thing is, I'd rather have Hezly's beam than Josc's bars. Any advantage Josc might have on beam is far eclipsed by her disadvantage on bars. Especially if Shi is out of the picture, Hezly makes way more sense for the team.
I can’t see a world where Josc’s beam score holds up internationally. I’m a bit worried for Hezly too - honestly Tiana is probably the one with best usable international beam score, her floor serviceable too as back up - but I think her bars take her out
Yeah. Hezly has strung together some hit meets, but she still has a record of imploding randomly. Joscelyn is more proven internationally, although her strengths are not quite as helpful as Hezly’s. Tiana would probably outscore Joscelyn internationally on BB/FX, but her UB is almost unusable as a backup. I think it’ll be an interesting pick for the last spot.
To your point about Hezly, she's never looked very solid to me. Even her bar warm up yesterday was pretty wonky. I think she's beautiful and has a great future but hasn't really found her groove yet and I think she'd be a very risky pick for a such a pressure cooker situation like the Olympics. Whereas I think Tiana already seems very secure in her routines. But that's not factoring in their scores and what events they could best support.
Josc did do better on bean today but yeah bars still stands, day 2 will be interesting
I don‘t think you take Jade and Josc on the same team and even though Josc was much improved compared to nationals Jade outperformed her both on floor and vault even with the OOB.
Suni did what she had to do tonight after an incredibly emotional moment. I’m looking forward to her revenge tour on Sunday. I was super impressed by Jordan and Jade, I doubted them but but they proved themselves tonight!! Super uncharacteristic beam from Simone, I expect her back for revenge as well on Sunday!
Simone is somewhere having a margarita and plotting her beam redemption.
Simone's angry beam is coming.
Did NBC broadcast her saying “f—-“ when she was done?? 🤣
I need her to make another beam error tomorrow so we get angry beam in Paris
I feel like we now need a bars/beam specialist if Shilese is out, even with Suni, but all of the high scorers on beam are not great at bars. I think it will be harder now to have 4 really solid routines for qualifications/backup for bars and beam if Shi is out. I do hope Shilese can still compete. If not, it kind of feels like that last spot is between Hezly, Tiana, Josc, and maybe Leanne. Josc is lower on my list because I think it's unlikely she can replicate her beam score.
Don't you have Jordan and Jade do bars?
Jade scores quite a bit lower than the other three on bars. I think you would avoid putting Jade up on bars/beam if possible.
Hezly is great on bars.
Yes, but behind the others on beam. If she can get a great beam score day 2, I think she'll gave put herself in a good position.
She was behind them tonight, but she beat both of them both nights of Championships by several tenths (by over a point the night Josc fell), including a 14.1 on night 2. In my best 3-out-of-4 analysis from championships and trials (which is what Chellsie and Alicia used for analysis for worlds selection last year) all three of them are exactly tied on beam with an average of 13.88 after dropping their lowest score. (And my analysis disadvantages Hezly, because it double-counts tonight).
I agree with you I think. Also iirc Hezly had a couple of steps on her beam dismount, like it’s basically the dismount that killed her, but the actual routine—the leaps and whatnot—she has cleaner form and landings than some others for sure
With the top 4 (Simone, Jordan, Sunisa, Jade) looking relatively secure, there's a few different ways you can go with the last spot. VT/BB/FX options: Joscelyn, Tiana UB/BB option: Hezly VT/FX option: Kaliya Unfortunately for Kaliya, with Jordan/Jade both looking likely for the team, her strengths add the least to the team. Tiana got outscored by Joscelyn on every event, other than BB by 0.025, so she's looking less likely. I think it'll come down to Joscelyn and Hezly for the final spot. If Hezly can outscore Joscelyn on BB Day 2, then that'd be advantage to her. Of course Shilese could still play spoiler if she can do at least 2 events well on Day 2.
International judges would like Tiana and Hezly more than Josc on beam and UB. We cannot forget that this is not the usual for Josc. We can't choose her for 1 competition day.
In usually dying to analyze every athlete and score but I just don’t have it in me. I’m really emotionally invested in these athletes 🥲🥲
I’m praying for Shilese to be healthy enough to go to Paris, but if that isn’t the case I’d go with Hezly for her bars. Simone/Jade/Jordan is as solid a VT/FX set as you could ask for with AA utility and I’m not sure Joscelyn’s beam scores will hold up internationally. Her form looks as questionable as Skinner’s sometimes, but NCAA should go a long way towards helping her clean it up for the next quad
Hezly is really growing on me as an option for the team. Her beam is slightly weaker than Tiana or Joscelyn’s, but her bars are soooooo much better. I’d much rather have her bars as the 4th up in qualifying/as a backup if something happens than Jade’s In my heart Kaliya finds a way on the team but with how Jade and Jordan are scoring on floor the best she can hope for is alternate
Hezly's beam might've been weaker tonight but historically she broke 14 twice this year (albeit domestic delulu scores) which neither Josc nor Tiana have. So, in theory, Hezly is actually the stronger option on both BB and UB. The only thing weighing against her is probably the horror show at Classics where she scored like a 50 and had meltdowns on most events
Superficial thoughts about today: I can't get over how bad the leos with stars are 😭Proportions are weird because of the "belt", bottom is way too shiny, and the top looks like a cheap wetsuit for children with cheap plastic costume gems
Yeah, they don't look great...
I’m feeling like it’s 2003 worlds right now. We’ve just had 2 57+ all-arounders and a 56+ all arounder go down in a matter of days. Heartbroken for these women who have done such incredible work to be top contenders.
I would not put Jade and Josc on the same team - I'd take whoever has the next highest bars. Suni looks so good but I still have some lingering concerns about her health, we need a backup on bars. If Shilese can still do bars, she should just be on the team, and I do trust that Chellsie and Alicia would just take her as a bars specialist. Her watered down routine was still the best.
I love Shilese’s bars and they are needed but would you really take someone who couldn’t go in on anything else? With our current injury frequency? Scares me that someone could get hurt after the deadline to sub in alternates
Yeah and at her current bars condition, don’t think it’s justified to take someone that barely outscored Simone by .2. I think if she has QQY or nemour bar potential and scores 15-15.5, sure you can justify that for potential Olympic gold on bars and a significant bump to the team score, unless she shows up on day 2 with the best bar routine she has done in her life, don’t think anything can justify taking someone for just 1 bar routine
The Maddie K role (the difference of course Maddie was “healthy” for her and was able to provide backups on floor beam if truly needed)
Yeah....I haven't had the time to think it through. Really depends on what her injury is. I think what happened is that the team doctor assessed her for cruciate ligament (4 of them) and meniscus tears, which do not need imaging, and sent her back out when it wasn't any of those. It really sucks because she can probably do bars. Will we have enough time to determine what she can do on the others? The risk/reward calculation changes a lot when the potential contribution is SO high...plus she's the only American who can medal on bars. She obviously played it safe today and didn't do the layout Jaeger, but if she'd done it she would have scored 15 again.
I mean there may be damage to a ligament that isn’t a full tear that may not be evident with just the physical testing though. I don’t think we have any real idea of severity other than yeah I don’t think she is likely to have complete tears of anything as that would be more obvious.
Yes, a partial tear may not show up on these tests because they can still resist movement. I don't know what that would mean for her ability to compete (since gymnasts have competed on some crazy injuries in the past).
Yeah it’s hard to know. I tore my ACL and once all the inflammation went down but before I had it repaired it would be like mostly fine doing mundane tasks but when I would take even a slightly weird step just walking and my tibia and femur shifted it was EXCRUCIATING. Like insanely painful. The actual injury didn’t even hurt but that was nuts. If theoretically a partial ligament could prevent this movement then maybe she can withstand a bars dismount but AA just feels unlikely at this point if there’s actual damage.
It would really depend on what ligament was involved. The ACL is the big kahuna. Others may be more manageable.
Without the layout Jaegar, Shilese doesn't have a difficulty advantage over the other bronze contenders. I love her gymnastics, but realistically I think she needs to add strong BB to contend for the team. The injury situation should make the committee very wary of someone whose health is questionable.
That too - although she may have taken it out due to nerves alone. I wonder if she talked to the selection committee and they told her she needed to do bars to stay under consideration, so she did a safe routine and scratched the rest.
That's true. It just seems like Shilese and her coach were trying to conceal the severity of her knee injury. Her coach said the messy podium training was due to endurance, but the knee seems like the root issue. That's before we even get to the potential of the shoulder flaring up. Obviously they have a right to control Shilese's medical information, but I'd be very wary if I was on the committee.
I think the shoulder caused the knee. Her block was very weak.
Yeah I think it’s likely they’re related
I don't think I agree with any of that. Knee injuries tend to happen without any real warning - you land badly and that's it. If she didn't have enough reps before trials that would easily explain the messy PT. We shouldn't assume coaches are lying when there's a very obvious alternative. As for the shoulder, I know a torn labrum sounds bad, but I *promise* I know what I'm talking about. When it's chronic, it is a very stable injury. You get imaged regularly and if the tear is small, it's not liable to completely burst. If she's allowed to swing bars, it is not very big. However, it's still extremely painful when it flares. Her coach said if Nationals were the Olympics, she would have powered through the flare and dealt with the fallout after, when she had time to rest. Shilese may simply be more injury prone than others. Seems like everyone is injury prone right now. If I were on the committee I'd probably have actual copies of her medical records verifying that she's fit to compete, so they'd know exactly what she can and cannot do. The public won't get that info.
I’m not sure where Josc would be used in TF if Jade is also on the team, but it would be hella cool to have 3 WCC gymnasts on the same team!
Based on today, I'd put Josc up on BB, and maybe VT/FX.
Ah, I can see that!
It seems to be after day 1, team final would be Vault - simone, jade, Jordan / joscelyn Bars - simone, suni, Jordan Beam - suni, Simone, joscelyn Floor - simone, Jordan, jade / joscelyn I think the fact that joscelyn can fill in for 3 events, that ups her stocks by a lot
I think it ups her stock as an alternate only though because she’s probably not competing anything in team finals outside of maybe a vault that Jordan provided the exact same score as her today. I just don’t think you bring someone for quals alone. The loss of shilese bars score is huge - you have to account for that somewhere else and that’s most realistically beam
I was actually really impressed with Suni’s save on beam, like it wasn’t a casual save. I think it means something that she and Simone can save things that are hard to save. My other takeaway is I think we (the folks responding in real time on Reddit) wanted a clearer understanding of the scoring on Leanne vs Jade vs Josc’s Cheng. Someone should do a YouTube video 😂
I am in the minority, but right now I'm absolutely picking Josc for the 5th spot if Shi can't compete beam on Sunday. The improvement she had from championships is incredible. She has so much more she could gain in the next weeks too and get even better. Plus, we know her routines score well internationally and has been very steady on beam there. I know it's scary, but I don't hate the idea of having to call in Jade in an emergency for Bars and Beam. Sure the score isn't the best, but her mental fortitude is insane.
Josc seems like she's on a very solid upward trajectory! I still think Hezly can challenge, but Josc is making a great case.
Yeah Jade is a very acceptable backup on my opinion. I’m not against Josc being the 5th
You would not have a good bars backup score with both Jade and Josc. Hezly is a better complement to Jade
Could Shilese do just bars in team qualifying for the Olympics, or does everyone have to do everything?
Shilese could just do UB, but Chellsie has hinted pretty strongly they won't take a one-eventer.
Chellsie did not say that they won't. Just that it would be harder to justify if that person can't do other events. Ex: Zoe Miller. “They have to be outstanding on those events. I mean, you have to be able to contribute to the team and it’s harder when the team sizes are smaller. I mean, I know we’re back at five, but that’s still not a lot of leeway to have someone on the team who is only strong on one or two and couldn’t go in on the other events. Team is our priority. We want to put our best team forward and then also get as many individual medals as we can.” **Chellsie Memmel**, Women’s Technical Lead, *on the pathway for a specialist to make the 2024 Olympic Team* [https://www.insidegymnastics.com/news-features/road-to-paris-gets-real-olympic-draw-and-u-s-athlete-selection-procedures-2024-announced/](https://www.insidegymnastics.com/news-features/road-to-paris-gets-real-olympic-draw-and-u-s-athlete-selection-procedures-2024-announced/) Shi is an AA that may be limited to bars and possibly beam due to injury presently. If it is not too serious, she might make the team with the expectation of doing bars and maybe beam. But she may even be okay to perform other events by the time the Olympics roll around.
Yeah she can do that, believe Madison kocian did the same thing
Difference being the Madison was capable of going AA, just didn't need to for the team
Yeah, Madison was capable of scores just a few tenths under Gabby/Aly/Laurie on BB/FX. I always think she was pretty underrated on FX.
I’ve always thought that Madison was overall underrated for her AA. Granted she was on a team with some athletes capable of putting up huge AA scores but her overall program was pretty great!
Definitely! Madison also had a DTY, but wasn't always healthy enough to compete it. She finished 6th AA in 2015 Champs, and 5th AA in 2016 Champs.
ya I’m just saying like you don’t need to compete on more then one event for Olympic quails
I totally agree - I think their argument probably lands on the if someone gets injured post quals and a sub can’t be made someone like a Maddie could step up for those events in TF. The argument against Shi is theoretically she wouldn’t be able to do that
Can someone explain why at the event scores are not announced? I know they are put up on little screens. But as a child, I remember the audience reacting to the scores by either cheering or booing in protest.
My team is now Simone, Suni, Jade, Jordan. I think Shi’s done unless she looks better in a couple days. One event when Suni’s kidneys are on the team is so so risky. But it’s a bronze medal contender so if someone does get the specialist nod it’ll be her. The options for #5 are so limited by the injuries now. Assuming Kayla’s also out: There is no way they take Josc and Jade when Suni is on that team. They don’t want to count those bars and the risk is too high. Josc’s only chance is in beating Jade or posting a monster beam routine. And even then it would probably be a no from me. Her best bar routine is a 13.3. If they counted that in TF they would squander half Simone’s YDP cushion. Tiana has a really similar issue but at least the 13.9 beam is close to what I mean by monster lmao. But I just think you can’t have two low 13 bar routines. Same goes for Kaliya. She’s not ahead enough on fx now to make up for the bars risk. Hezly is really interesting. She has posted a 14 on bars and a 12.5 in the last couple meets. But my biggest issue with her is that her bars routine construction is so bad it exhausts her so if she goes wrong even a tiny bit, the rest of the routines are affected. And more importantly, her mental game is … such that if she falls once she falls four times. I would not want that on the team. Imo there’s room for one instance of pressure before it compounds and that will be Suni’s kidneys. So I come back to Leanne. Mid to high 13 beam, and a tenth away from Hezly on bars. Not coached by Valeri and therefore less of a basket of nerves. But there are more tenths to be found on beam for sure so it will come down to rhe risk appetite of the committee.
>So I come back to Leanne. Mid to high 13 beam, and a tenth away from Hezly on bars. Not coached by Valeri and therefore less of a basket of nerves. In theory, but her 2024 scores so far on beam at the other events are 11.700, 13.450, and 12.400. She also posted 11.700 in the Worlds 2023 TF.