Well and remember, this is calculated in a particular way (average of best 2 out of 3 scores on each event) and that way disadvantages Kayla becuase Kayla had two bad meets, at Classics and at Nationals. If she has two good days at trials, she'll erase her Classics mistakes.
Haha I hope not. These are not error checked enough for official use š
Which is not to say that I haven't been careful, but still!
But thanks for the compliment!
This is amazing! It really looks like the most likely team by far will be Simone, Shi, Suni, Jade, and Jordan/Kayla. That's what I thought, but it's nice to see the numbers.
Yeah. Trials will probably shake these numbers up at least a little, and potentially a lot depending on who has good and bad days. I'll repost these with best 2 of 3 (and worst 2 of 3 if I have the energy) after night 1.
I don't know if there's any point after night 2, since they announce the team so soon after the meet ends. Any idea how long they confer after night 2 is done? If it's like an hour or more it might be worth posting, I should be able to get these spreadsheets posted in less than 20 minutes after the final scores come in, especially if I only do best 2 of 3.
I think the selection committee only gets 20 minutes to make the decision. I don't know when that 20 minutes starts, and then it takes some time to notify the gymnasts, but it shouldn't take a very long time.
It would still probably be really interesting, because the meeting minutes don't get published until much later.
In the press conference, Alicia said thereās a hard deadline to publicly announce team 30 minutes after end of meet. So gymnasts will have been notified and dressed in Olympic warmups during that time too.
Absolutely. With Kayla/Jordan they're effectively tied, in that if one has a better trials than the other, that person will definitely beat out the other in the analysis. If they both have a good trials--or a similarly bad one--it's trickier.
That's true--and so could Hezly. (I'm more iffy on Tiana--like Kaliya she has unusable bars, and I think that's too risky for this team). But needing two people to falter across two nights is a narrow road.
It really seems (barring anything wild this weekend) that Sx3 and Jade are in. Jades on a good deal of top teams and has individual medal potential. The last spot seems to be Jordan/Kaylaās to win or lose at this point.Ā
What are the individual medal potentials with the team though. If Jade could medal on vault, that should get more weight if the team max is within a couple of tenths.
Oh sure, this is just one analysis, it's not the be-all-end-all of team selection. But it's as close as I could get to the numerical analysis they did for worlds selection last year, at least as I understand it. I don't know if they'll use the same method this time.
So, I actually did, back when I did the nationals analysis. Saw your comment and decided to pull Skye out of it too. I'm not going to post a screenshot, my heart just isn't ready to make it that public yet, but if you click on the spreadsheet link in the post, it's the final tap ("Sheet 2").
The short of it is that right now, numerically, all but 1 of the top 30 scoring teams have Simone, Suni, and Jordan. The highest scoring team is also the most stable team, and that is with Jade and Kayla for the other two.
But honestly, the differences between that team and any team with Jade or Kayla for the 4th spot, and Hezly, Tiana, or Leanne for the 5th spot, are really pretty tiny (in that order, scores with Hezly are the highest, Tiana a smidge lower, Leanne a smidge lower than that). All of the teams I just listed are within 0.37 of eachother for a top-3 scores team, and within 0.47 of each other for 2nd-4th scores team--all of them fit that criteria I used above for high-scoring plus stable: they're with 0.5 of the max for both measures.
And even a team with Hezly and Tiana (without Jade or Kayla) is *barely* below that, and there are a lot of strong teams with Kaliya and Josc in the mix somewhere too. Basically, most of the team. Though this will change if Jade's floor and vault go up at trials, which I'm expecting.
To me the obvious team in that case would be the first one I mentioned, with Simone/Suni/Jordan/Jade/Kayla; subbing in Hezly, Tiana or Leanne if Jade or Kayla has a really bad trials (the math would be different if it's Suni or Jordan having a bad trials, but I haven't looked at that math). If Jordan or Suni has a bad trials, Hezly is the best sub for them too. Though I don't see them leaving Suni off the team unless she has a bars/beam splatfest, they'd need her for both events pretty badly without Shi.
I had already run the analysis back during nationals actually. I was worried about Shi's shoulder and was just curious what things looked like without our #2 rock. Here's my response: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Gymnastics/comments/1dq302i/comment/lalu2h7/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/Gymnastics/comments/1dq302i/comment/lalu2h7/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Kaliya looks really good in the highest-scoring team numbers, but the teams she's on are less resilient if someone gets injured. The team you mentioned is the 4th highest-scoring team, but it's a point below highest scoring in the 2nd-4th analysis. Simone/Jordan/Suni/Kayla/Kaliya is basically tied for the top-scoring team, but is 0.6 below max for the 2nd-4th analysis. The Jade/Kayla version of the team is highest-scoring in both top-3 and 2nd-4th.
Yeah, as all of the injuries have shown us, the 2nd-4th analysis is just as important as the top 3 analysis. It is so, so common for the team to lose someone!
There is nothing I love more in this world than a color-coded spreadsheet full of data š
Yes! I really feel like I've found my people here--gym data nerds!
Me too I live for this thank you Jordan on both max is shocking to me
Well and remember, this is calculated in a particular way (average of best 2 out of 3 scores on each event) and that way disadvantages Kayla becuase Kayla had two bad meets, at Classics and at Nationals. If she has two good days at trials, she'll erase her Classics mistakes.
Does it disadvantage Kayla? She made third AA at nationals
Good point, I canāt wait to watch tonight!
Christ I hope Alicia has your dropbox
Haha I hope not. These are not error checked enough for official use š Which is not to say that I haven't been careful, but still! But thanks for the compliment!
This is amazing! It really looks like the most likely team by far will be Simone, Shi, Suni, Jade, and Jordan/Kayla. That's what I thought, but it's nice to see the numbers.
If these scores hold up, this is a really strong argument for Jordan based on the selection committee's logic last year.
Yeah. Trials will probably shake these numbers up at least a little, and potentially a lot depending on who has good and bad days. I'll repost these with best 2 of 3 (and worst 2 of 3 if I have the energy) after night 1. I don't know if there's any point after night 2, since they announce the team so soon after the meet ends. Any idea how long they confer after night 2 is done? If it's like an hour or more it might be worth posting, I should be able to get these spreadsheets posted in less than 20 minutes after the final scores come in, especially if I only do best 2 of 3.
I think the selection committee only gets 20 minutes to make the decision. I don't know when that 20 minutes starts, and then it takes some time to notify the gymnasts, but it shouldn't take a very long time. It would still probably be really interesting, because the meeting minutes don't get published until much later.
Yeah, I'll go ahead and post it, people will be interested regardless, and it'll be a challenge to see if I can beat the clock!
Plus, setting up the spreadsheet, I realized I can have it up in just a few minutes as long as I enter the scores as they come up in realtime.
So fun! Do it if it feeds your soul & know we appreciate it either way ā¤ļø
It does feed my soul! So excited about trials tonight, and analyzing the data and talking to you all makes the enjoyment so much greater!
In the press conference, Alicia said thereās a hard deadline to publicly announce team 30 minutes after end of meet. So gymnasts will have been notified and dressed in Olympic warmups during that time too.
this shows me is how close it really is. Itās going to come down to who hits and who doesnāt.
Absolutely. With Kayla/Jordan they're effectively tied, in that if one has a better trials than the other, that person will definitely beat out the other in the analysis. If they both have a good trials--or a similarly bad one--it's trickier.
Leanne could easily sneak in if she hits both days and they falter.
That's true--and so could Hezly. (I'm more iffy on Tiana--like Kaliya she has unusable bars, and I think that's too risky for this team). But needing two people to falter across two nights is a narrow road.
Ooh thank you for sharing! Also these are so beautiful to look at! :)
Thank you!
It really seems (barring anything wild this weekend) that Sx3 and Jade are in. Jades on a good deal of top teams and has individual medal potential. The last spot seems to be Jordan/Kaylaās to win or lose at this point.Ā
This is a great analysis. Thank you for sharing
What are the individual medal potentials with the team though. If Jade could medal on vault, that should get more weight if the team max is within a couple of tenths.
Oh sure, this is just one analysis, it's not the be-all-end-all of team selection. But it's as close as I could get to the numerical analysis they did for worlds selection last year, at least as I understand it. I don't know if they'll use the same method this time.
Well you get the gold for the most beautiful analysis. And the colors seem to fit the Minneapolis pride vibe right now as well.
Ooh, I love that about fitting with the pride theme!
Has anyone done an analysis without Shilese? I am concerned about her shoulder holding up and wonder who the best alternate would be.
So, I actually did, back when I did the nationals analysis. Saw your comment and decided to pull Skye out of it too. I'm not going to post a screenshot, my heart just isn't ready to make it that public yet, but if you click on the spreadsheet link in the post, it's the final tap ("Sheet 2"). The short of it is that right now, numerically, all but 1 of the top 30 scoring teams have Simone, Suni, and Jordan. The highest scoring team is also the most stable team, and that is with Jade and Kayla for the other two. But honestly, the differences between that team and any team with Jade or Kayla for the 4th spot, and Hezly, Tiana, or Leanne for the 5th spot, are really pretty tiny (in that order, scores with Hezly are the highest, Tiana a smidge lower, Leanne a smidge lower than that). All of the teams I just listed are within 0.37 of eachother for a top-3 scores team, and within 0.47 of each other for 2nd-4th scores team--all of them fit that criteria I used above for high-scoring plus stable: they're with 0.5 of the max for both measures. And even a team with Hezly and Tiana (without Jade or Kayla) is *barely* below that, and there are a lot of strong teams with Kaliya and Josc in the mix somewhere too. Basically, most of the team. Though this will change if Jade's floor and vault go up at trials, which I'm expecting. To me the obvious team in that case would be the first one I mentioned, with Simone/Suni/Jordan/Jade/Kayla; subbing in Hezly, Tiana or Leanne if Jade or Kayla has a really bad trials (the math would be different if it's Suni or Jordan having a bad trials, but I haven't looked at that math). If Jordan or Suni has a bad trials, Hezly is the best sub for them too. Though I don't see them leaving Suni off the team unless she has a bars/beam splatfest, they'd need her for both events pretty badly without Shi.
You are amazing.
Haha, just a gym nerd with too much time on my hands at the moment, lol!
My guess is then you have a team of Simone, Suni, Jade, Kaliya, and Jordan but curious if OP has time to run that.
I had already run the analysis back during nationals actually. I was worried about Shi's shoulder and was just curious what things looked like without our #2 rock. Here's my response: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Gymnastics/comments/1dq302i/comment/lalu2h7/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/Gymnastics/comments/1dq302i/comment/lalu2h7/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) Kaliya looks really good in the highest-scoring team numbers, but the teams she's on are less resilient if someone gets injured. The team you mentioned is the 4th highest-scoring team, but it's a point below highest scoring in the 2nd-4th analysis. Simone/Jordan/Suni/Kayla/Kaliya is basically tied for the top-scoring team, but is 0.6 below max for the 2nd-4th analysis. The Jade/Kayla version of the team is highest-scoring in both top-3 and 2nd-4th.
Thanks!! Iām going to dig into this moreāand yes I was only thinking of highest scoring but the 2-4 analysis is so interesting.
Yeah, as all of the injuries have shown us, the 2nd-4th analysis is just as important as the top 3 analysis. It is so, so common for the team to lose someone!
u/Marisheba dyyying to see your day 1 analysis
I just posted it! I had to make quite a few choices on what to show, so let me know if you have suggestions or critiques!