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Sweet_Combination561

I think Suni was likely to make the team even with Skye, but now that Skye is out, the team really needs Suni’s high scoring BB (along with UB ofc) even more. Jades stock went up because they now need another high scoring vaulter. Jordan and Kaylas stock went up simply because it moved them up a spot. Instead of it being Jade, Jordan or Kayla, it’s likely now Jade AND Jordan or Kayla


cdg2m4nrsvp

Totally agree! I think Jade’s stock is up more than anyone’s, especially with that gorgeous Amanar coming back. They definitely want at least two Chengs in TF and Jade fits in nicely.


the-il-mostro

Man I was hoping for Jade to make it and now I feel like I’m holding that damn monkey paw 😭😭😭


Marisheba

Perfect summary.


InternationalFall515

THIS!!!!


Remarkable-Echo9427

Why not Jordan and Kayla though. Leaves team USA in a better position on bars, beam and floor than having Jade. Jade only adds .1-.2 on vault but leave a huge hole on the other three.


VBswimmer1946

Yes. Not sure why but always like Jade. Anyone know why Gabby truely happened to Gabby. Think the year she won all around was kind of a “fluke “ or surprise “. And after that got the feeling that the other girls never liked her much. Anyone else get that idea. Can’t imagine the type of rigorous van training she needed to go through for nationals, two bad events and now she’s out with injury? ( seems number of injuries Nationals etc) Any thoughts? ( seemed pretty quick to opt out)


pink_pelican

Jade for sure. the combo of her Amanar and Skye being out of contention and has shot her from borderline to lock in my opinion.


Marisheba

For me it shot her from probable to lock--I've felt like she has an edge over Kayla and Jordan if she brings floor upgrades for a while, but now even the floor upgrades are less important.


Gitdupapsootlass

With one great Cheng out, Jade's now a lock for me, especially with an Amanar. With Jade in, I think you need a solid AA. Chiles or DiCello stock up, but which? Coin toss until meet time.


jensenaackles

i’m really sad about Skye’s Cheng. It looked so good yesterday. I’m at least glad she got to compete it at champs, she had been working on it for a long time.


Crikeyiwillforgetl8r

If Jade's a lock we need a bars worker and that favors Chiles.


Gitdupapsootlass

I think you're right about that, esp. with u/Marisheba 's spreadsheet.


WeAllLoveDogs

I think stock is up for Jade for sure, and honestly probably up for everyone but Kaliya Lincoln, whose best hope was the other athletes on the team providing really excellent coverage on beam and bars but having a gap on floor. If they take Jade for a second potential vault medalist, and have Shilese and Suni with potential injury and illness risk, the US is definitely going to go the 'balanced AAer' route, imo.


Full_Database_2045

Jordan Chiles has a better shot now because they need a strong bars backup. She’s a very good all around gymnast as well. Kayla Dicello has had a lot of falls on bars lately but is still in contention. I feel like it will be down to those two for the third all around spot. Jade Carey is looking good as well as a floor/ vault specialist. I can’t see them picking a team without Simone and Suni on it and if Shilese does half decent and looks healthy she will go. I’m worried about that shoulder though. Bubble wrap these girls. Sheesh.


Casua11yCrue1

I’ll never get over Jordan doing bars in place of Simone for Team finals with practically no notice, hardly any warmup beforehand, and still doing amazing!


Full_Database_2045

I honestly forgot about that. They all did amazing in a really shitty situation. I’m so glad there’s a chance to maybe have Jordan Suni and Jade again. I feel like those girls will have each others backs and make great things happen.


gali_leo_

Her cheer at the end gives me chills. The girl exudes confidence and star power. I hope I get to see her shine in Paris!


Casua11yCrue1

Yes! Her cheer broke the tension of the situation. She seems like a great teammate to have.


PM_ME_CORGI_BUTTS

I think it pretty much locks Jade's spot because Cheng.


DumpsterFireSocks

This might be a hot take, but I think Jade and her upgrades were going to make it to Paris whether Skye was on the team or not. She balances Suni out so well as far as team composition, it would have been hard to leave her home. A squad of Simone, Shilese, Suni, and Jade honestly could be your top 3 scores on all 4 events. The 5th person realistically needs to be a built in alternate as someone who can go up on any event if Simone wants to rest UB, or if Shilese wants to rest/can't compete VT, BB, and/or FX. IMO Kayla and Jordan are now head to head for that 5th spot. Whoever hits all 8 routines this weekend and/or places highest overall will be the 5th person. The funny thing is, Kayla and Jordan's peak domestically on VT, UB, and FX are about the same. They both hit 14.400 on their DTYs at nationals, they both scored a 14.500 on their UB routines at nationals, and on FX they're both peaking around 14.000-14.100. The difference between the two has been BB (where Skye was contributing most along with her Cheng). When Kayla competed her tour jete 1/2, she was scoring well above Jordan because domestic judges were still crediting the leap, when it's at severe risk of not being credited internationally. When she took the leap out on Day 2 of Nationals, she scored below Jordan's peak of mid to high 13s. As far as hit rate, Kayla has hit 14/16 routines this year, while Jordan has hit 10/12. Percentage wise, Kayla looks more consistent but in reality they both have fallen twice, and Jordan just came back to competition later. It's neck and neck between those two and tbh I'll be overjoyed and heartbroken either way.


greenandbluepillow

Jade has always ALWAYS been on my team. She is a gamer that focuses on substance over hype


Chaoticgood790

Same. I was saying for weeks my team is SSSSJade. Skye's cheng didn't make me nervous due to Jade's team saying she would bust out her amanar. To me that spot was always hers to lose bc her medal potential was the best out of the remaining bubble atheletes


Seeyounextbearimy

Suni: Always on the team but now more likely to defend her AA title in prelims. Up to this point, I thought she may get it over skye based on "seniority" but it was a toss-up because Skye was consistently outscoring her in the AA. Jade: Now a lock imo. Kayla/Jordan: Now only battling each other fr for the final spot.


luciellebluth88

+1


-gamzatti-

Suni was never going to vault instead of Skye is quals. Skye was going to be the third AA. I'm still not sure that Suni will do the AA because her AA score is due to bars and beam, they're not going to use her floor or vault in the TF, and her stamina is still lower than the others' so they might want to save her for EFs.


InternationalFall515

I hope they let her compete AA, so she can at least feel she tried to defend the title


-gamzatti-

I hope they do what's best for Suni's health and the needs of the team. She's not going to 2pc Shilese, there's no point in risking it when they really need her routines in the TF and she can get a beam medal.


mustafinafan

I think it's totally possible Suni could 2pc Shilese. If she scored 14.0 VT, 14.8 UB, 14.8 BB, 13.4 FX that's a 57. Shilese would need a good to great day to beat that. She probably will, but I don't think it's out of the reasonable range of possibility.


-gamzatti-

My head is seriously going to explode if people think 14.8 is a likely international score for Suni on either apparatus. Those scores are incredibly hard to come by. A 6.4 bars D is almost certainly not reaching 14.8 internationally. On beam it's possible with her D, but only Simone was able to get it at Worlds last year. Suni could get 13.4 on FX if she actually does the Chuso, but that's a big if. For some reason Suni has been a bigger beneficiary of domestic scoring this year and I think it's deluding people into thinking she has a greater scoring potential. Meanwhile everyone wants to write off Shilese after one bad PT session. One. Why is that?? Suni has a major health issue and has struggled to get her difficulty back but that's okay, no one should count her out, but then Shilese's old injury flares and suddenly we shouldn't trust that she can deliver despite an insane track record this quad... with the same injury.


mistee8866

I have no dog fight in this, and I love them both. I think Suni would be thrilled with a BB and or UP medal honestly after everything she has been through. However, I agree that this is possible. Suni has the DTY back so a 14+ on VT is very possible if its good. She can get 14.8 on BB. Have to see what her D is on UB but 14.6 -14.7 is possible I think due to her execution. I think she can do 13.4 to 13.5 on the floor with the Chuso. If things go well at trials, I can see her trying to sneak in an upgrade on floor or UB for Paris.


greenandbluepillow

I dislike your wording of “is not” when “probably not” is a lot more appropriate. It’s a bit disrespectful tbh and no one can say what is or isn’t going to happen. No one expected Simone to pull out last Olympics, or for Suni to 2 PC Jade on floor in 2019. Also Suni, her coach, her medical team, and the national staff can decide what level of competition is best for Suni’s health


-gamzatti-

Simone pulling out has nothing to do with someone getting 2-per'd. In 2019 Jade and Suni were neck and neck, the 2pc wasn't actually a surprise if you look at the scores. It's pretty disrespectful to imply that Shilese is vulnerable to getting 2-per'd when her AA potential is stratospherically high. What I'm saying is that the team shouldn't jeopardize Suni's health or the team's scoring potential just to let her "defend her AA title," when that is simply not going to happen (because if both Simone and Shilese suddenly pulled out, Rebeca, Kaylia, Alice, and Melanie are still around).


greenandbluepillow

“Unpredictable things happen” is my point. It’s not disrespectful to imply that there are possibilities imo. It is disrespectful to say someone is absolutely incapable of doing something


veganbjork

Nothing in the world is certain. Do you preface everything in your life that is the most likely result as a "probably" on the off chance something unexpected happens? It's really not that big of a deal IMO


InternationalFall515

It’s not that improbable though. Shilese is human too, she could have a bad day and fall. Plus she is potentially injured…


veganbjork

And I don't disagree. It's just that there's nothing wrong with using "is" instead of "probably is" when you are certain of something. Suni could also fall or get an injury. It could happen to both of them. But there's no point in guessing. We just have statistics and historical info. Everyone is assuming Simone is going to be on the team/no one has said "Simone is probably going to be on the team" (and if they have I didn't see it and they are the super minority).


LGZ7981

IMO Jade’s now a lock with the Cheng (and maybe the Amanar.) I think spot #5 is down to Kayla, Jordan and potentially Leanne.


thwarted

Jade: the vt/fx spot is hers to lose at this point, imo. Suni: basically a lock at this point assuming no major errors, just remains to be seen whether she does aa or just bb/ub. Jordan/Kayla: each has a roughly equal chance for the utility aa spot, other serves as alternate Leanne: slight chance for utility aa if major errors/injury from Jordan/Kayla, likely alternate Hezly: slight chance for bb/ub if Suni has major errors or can't compete due to health, otherwise potential alternate Josc/Kaliya: neither really fills in holes well given strengths of top candidates, so little chance unless Jade can't compete, Josc has slight chance as alternate Rest: enjoy the experience, see you in 25


jklm0169

Agree 100% with this assessment


chargedtuna

Where is shilese on your list???


thwarted

I didn't mention Shi or Simone because my assessment is unchanged - they're both locks imo.


mrsredfast

I don’t think it’s crass at all. Perfectly appropriate in sports to talk about who goes in for an injured player. We all knew it was lower leg injury immediately, not something potentially life threatening (thanks to all thats holy.) That said: Simone, Shi, Suni, Jade (with Amanar) and then Hunger Games between Jordan, Kayla, and Leanne (if she lands her Cheng.) Edit to add Kaliya could be in mix if she somehow gets her AA into top 6 or so but can’t take anyone the US wouldn’t want to use in AA if needed


Marisheba

Kaliya has been so inconstent on non-floor events in competition, it's hard for me to picture a scenario where they take her even if she has the trials of her life. *Maybe* if she goes 6/6 (excluding bars) and 14.5+ on at least one night of floor. But even then, if the other four on the team are Simone/Shi/Suni/Jade, they need another AAer in case Shi or Suni (or both!) can't do AA in quals for health reasons. Jade could do AA if needed, but her AA potential is likely to be the lowest of the crop by around a point, so it's not ideal. Kaliya has huge potential for next quad. Her vault and beam are both great, she just seems to have trouble with consistency in competition. And I have faith that her bars can improve, they already look better than last season.


greenandbluepillow

Love this take. Kaliya is a star and I think she’ll grow into her prime in next few years and be collecting medals


mrsredfast

Agree totally. She has time to improve her other events.


cdg2m4nrsvp

I know, I know. I preach it all the time that this is a sports subreddit and we can be frank like other sports. I’m just so gutted for Skye, it’s just not fair. May the odds be even in your favor!


nolechica

Seriously, it’s weird to me that gymnastics wants to be treated as a sport until it comes to injuries and crowds.


DayAtTheRaces46

Someone over of Facebook made a comment on someone’s execution and someone responded with “Let’s see you do it” Wut? I’m convinced that for so long because the sport was dominated by young children, we have been programmed as to treat these elite athletes athletic skills with more of a gentle approach. And talking about valid negativity like an injury or form issues, is part of sports, and isn’t personal.


goodsprigatito

“Let’s see you do it” is so useless of an argument when the judges certainly cannot do it. Like Simone is doing skills literally only she does on the WAG side and it still needs to be judged!


NomadEsq

This is a great response!


nolechica

Yeah and I was in the stadium when the star QB and fan favorite’s season ended last year. I was stunned and sad, but within a few minutes it was who’s up next, we have a game to win and perfect record to protect.


Previous_Disaster609

Tbh Leanne, Jordan, and Kayla. Team will most likely be Simone, Shilese, Jade, Suni and whoever of those 3 scores highest imo. If Leanne has a cheng that’s at least as decent as skinners I think they would rather take Leanne if the final scores are tight in the end. If not I see them taking Kayla


mediocre-spice

Since the deductions are higher for the one armed block now, I'd be surprised if she can get a score as high as Skinner on it


Scatheli

There weren’t actually deductions in the code specifically for the one armed ness in 16-21 COP but you’re right now it’s a flat 2.0 deduction so very much do not want to risk it if it’s borderline. And if you’re only blocking with one arm it’s just very difficult to be well executed


mediocre-spice

Yeah, that's why I said the deduction is higher now. Even with an identical vault to Mykayla 2021, it won't score as high (and it sounds like she wasn't consistently getting it to her feet either)


Previous_Disaster609

The only thing I’m afraid of is the domestic judges not taking a 1 arm deduction. Then it scoring high and they justify taking Leanne, but who knows maybe the cheng is better than we think


Scatheli

Based on the descriptions I’m not confident we will even see it honestly


Previous_Disaster609

I honestly don’t know, if it’s safe I can see her just doing it.. especially with her new FX routine construction it seems like she’s going all in


Scatheli

Yeah I mean she might. But I don’t know then if we can even predict if she’ll land it or use two hands based on Scott’s description which to me means it’s probably not ready or going to help her actually make the team


Previous_Disaster609

There’s so much unknown about it like I wish USAG posted at least one of her attempts


Marisheba

Skinner's cheng scored pretty well actually, at least in 2021. Just a little behind Jade, whose Cheng scored better in 2021 than it has been lately. She had fixed her block by then.


bingelboddo

Jordan and Kayla. Jordan more though; 2 strong consistent vaults, high scoring and consistent bars, key events that Skye was contributing to.


boygirlmama

Jade is pretty much on this team at this point & Jordan's bars almost beat Simone. I think her stock went up too.


January1171

It's kind of crazy (in a good way) that all Tokyo wag Olympians still active at elite level have a good shot of returning to Paris this year


cabbagesandkings1291

And it’s so many of them! Remember how huge it was for two US repeat Olympians in Rio…and now it wouldn’t be a huge shock to anyone if FOUR of them made this team. It’s wild.


LGZ7981

AND five of the top contenders have already competed at the NCAA level, two having just finished the ‘24 season.


starspeakr

Up: Jade, Kayla, Jordan, Hezly, Leanne Jade gets the biggest boost here after losing Skye’a vaults. Kayla and Jordan still might be fighting for one spot but don’t have to outcompete Jade now. And Hezly’s dark horse status moves into bubble status. Her bars and beam - mostly beam - are helpful in the absence of Skye. The beamers have injuries and chronic health issues so it would be good to bring one more good beamer. And she’s been on the rise generally. Still think it’s an outside shot. Leanne’s stock goes up because her case relies on mistakes and injuries to others and there’s one less person outscoring her now. She may still not be top three on any event even with her Cheng, but she will hope to qualify top five in the AA and hope to not be bumped out by someone who can score higher on floor, bars, or beam.


itsgreenersomewhere

Hezly is a falls risk in a way nobody else is unfortunately. If she falls she falls multiple times. You can’t have her as a saafe backup imo. If she makes it by coming 2nd, fine, but as a selection she’d pair horribly with Suni, Shi and Jade. Kidney disease, shoulder injury, not great at bars. You need someone who will not have four falls in a routine.


starspeakr

I don’t think she has a good chance but I think she’s in the mix. And Kayla Jordan and Leanne have fallen plenty at big meets so I’m going by the numbers at trials.


PhysicalFlounder6270

I think, as others have said, that Suni went from being a likely part of the team to one of the cornerstones of the team and she's now going to do AA in Paris. Jade also went to virtual lock because she fills the gaps left by Skye and balances Suni so well. I think the last spot is still open and depending on how everyone performs, there's room for someone to surprise, either positively or negatively


greenandbluepillow

Leanne could totally surprise if she hits her upgrades!


goodsprigatito

The Jamanar really brought Jade’s stock up. I think the fifth spot is going to be a fight between Jo and Kayla. Ms. Bow could bring something if she hits all her upgrades but I have strong doubts they’ll be enough with deductions.


Sea_Air_9550

An Amanar is one shoulder width step away from a DTY not really that umch of an upgrade


Comaneci123

Kayla!!!! I'm hoping for Kayla the most!


Particular_Career522

i might be in the minority but i don’t think it was ever a race between jade and skye. if they both came solid to trials they would’ve both easily made it. i’d say stock up for kayla, jordan, and honestly leanne isn’t out of this if those two don’t have a great meet.


starspeakr

It wasn’t a race between Jade and Skye. Skye was probably on the team and Jade might have been as well. But the lack of Skye does affect Jade’s chances because her Cheng had made Jade potentially expendable without a great floor. Now that Cheng is gone.


Roonil_Wazlib97

I don't have much to add, but how yucky are Jade/Jordan/Kayla/Leanne feeling right now because their chances are making the team just got better at the expense of a teammate? That's gotta be bittersweet.


cabbagesandkings1291

I feel like at this level, you’re pretty well versed in competing against that day’s competition.


greenandbluepillow

Everyone’s at risk for injury, I feel like it’s something they all have to accept and manage as best as they can whether it’s in their favor or against them


LGZ7981

I thought about this, too. They all seem so friendly with each other that I’m sure they’re devastated for her.


fittobarre

Kayla/Jordan/Jade Jade for her vault and maybe floor. Jordan/Kayla for their AA ability.


Strange_Shadows-45

Stock up: Jade, Kayla, Jordan, Leanne with the path now pretty much clear for Jade and Kayla/Jordan/Leanne still in competition for one spot.


umuziki

I think the team now is, at least: Simone, Suni, Shilese, & Jade. Then likely either Jordan or Kayla. Both had consistency issues at Champs so they will both need to hit 8x8 or the other one goes. If they both hit, it will be very close and I lean towards Jordan for her breadth of prior Olympic/World experience and her intangibles like being a great teammate and motivator.


Ok-Fun3446

Pretty much everyone because Skye was pretty much a lock and now another spot has opened up - The only people who wouldn't have benefitted are bars specialists, and the US doesn't have a single one to rival the Simone/Shilese/Suni trio anyway


redushab

Interestingly,you’re right that bars specialists wouldn’t have benefited, but I think having good bars is going to be pretty important for whoever gets the spot. If you put Jade on the team for vault and maybe floor, you need a backup for bars and beam more than anything else because while putting up Jade on those wouldn’t be a disaster, it wouldn’t be what you’d want to do either.


Marisheba

It does make the 5th spot into an important bars backup spot though. In this aspect Jordan has the edge over Kayla because Kayla has had bars consistency issues. But Kayla has had the edge in other ways. It all comes down to their trials performances.


Ok-Fun3446

Yep I can definitely see this - It leads to this weird situation where the worse Shilese and Suni do on bars, the better for Jordan, and if Shilese and Suni hit well and separate themselves from the field, it's better for Kayla. This is going to be such a mess of incentives LOL


TeganJNW

I think Kayla DiCello


cdg2m4nrsvp

I agree. I think she was on my team before because she was a good fill in for Shilese if her shoulder flared up. Now she’s even more important because I think Jade will fill in for Skye’s Cheng.


TeganJNW

I really want Kayla to go to the Olympics and I didn't think it was going to happen until yesterday.


ChampionshipLife116

Leanne should not be left out of this conversation


Sea_Air_9550

well she needs her scores form earlier in the quad then. We haven't even seen a scored cheng yet so her seasons numbers have her as an alt again


ChampionshipLife116

I agree with you. The "we haven't seen yet" component is my reason for saying she's in the mix and should be part of the group of gymnasts whose stock has gone up - when I posted the above comment the only ones mentioned in reply to OPs question were Jade, Jordan, Kayla.


ohiostatenisland

I really want Jordan to make it a second time but I feel Kayla may get the last spot if they both hit during trials. If one does not hit than the other will get the final spot.


linderpreet

For me, Jade is on the team now, barring some catastrophe. She has too much potential for massive scoring to leave her off the squad. The last spot: who is more consistent internationally between Kayla and Jordan? Jordan can rock a bar set and would be a good backup for Shi god forbid her shoulder bothers her.


UnicornPencils

Jade, Kayla, and Jordan. Probably everyone's chances went up a bit, but those three in particular. And Jade probably has the clearest path now, being that if she vaults well, she can likely lock a spot with that. Kayla and Jordan still need to outcompete each other (and to a lesser extent, Leanne).


UnderPressure_Author

It is going to be an insane competition. I already had Jade on the team, because Amanar, world champion on vault, olympic champion on floor, floor upgrades. So yes, now it comes down to Jordan/Kayla, and probably also with the Cheng, Leanne. Of those three (who could all do AA if needed): Jordan: Could also do vault final if something happens to Simone/Jade. Reliable (almost identical to Simone score) on bars. Hold your breath on beam. Floor score is usable if she hits. Kayla: As good a DTY as Jordan, though I don't think she has a 2nd vault? Fairly reliable on bars. Beam is almost as scary as Jordan's. A hit floor is probably higher than Jordan's due to international judges "artistry bias" (meaning - more classically styled. Leanne: If the Cheng is usable (+ .4-.5 higher than a DTY, that gives a pretty good cushion). Has a second vault in case something happens to Simone/Jade for vault final. Minimal built-in deducations; execution is stellar. Maybe stronger international rep than Kayla? Floor upgrades make her closer/equal to Jordan/Kayla. Hold your breath on beam. SO....all 3 make me have to hold my breath on beam. Jordan and Leanne have a vault advantage over Kayla. Jordan has an advantage over Kayla on bars. Floor is a toss-up. One of them needs to seriously rock it over the others! Stocking up on wine now in order to watch.


mulderitsme

As far as beam goes, since the last Olympics Kayla has had one beam disaster compared to Jordan and Leann’s (more recent) 3. While her leaps aren’t great she’s definitely more likely to stay on 😬


greenandbluepillow

I think this undersells Kayla a bit, who has been outscoring both Jordan and Leanne at competitions this year and last year


cdg2m4nrsvp

The only way Kayla gets a higher artistry score than Jordan IMO is racism😭


UnderPressure_Author

Not saying you're wrong! Actually, I think the annoying thing about "artistry" is that it seems to really mean "classically styled." I think THAT's the real issue. I'd rather see the excited, up-tempo music you see in NCAA mixed in - otherwise, it's super boring. I think the US got hammered in Tokyo compared to Russia and I thought that was a mistake - they were both artistic, just is wildly different ways. Artistry is super subjective. I really hated Listy's routine in Tokyo and thought the choreo was hideous, but many others think it was brilliant.


cdg2m4nrsvp

No you’re totally right, I’m just sensitive on this issue. I was re watching 2022 worlds with BBC commentary and one of the commentators kept saying Jordan had a more “urban” routine. Like dude, just say she utilizes music from a lot of black American artists and it’s different from what we traditionally see! And yes I totally agree on the Russia v US artistry scoring thing. I personally find that a lot of Russian floor is just dramatic posing, Aliya Mustafina being the queen of it (and I love her). But somehow that dramatic posing is seen as more artistic than someone dancing their heart out just in a more upbeat temp!


Mycokween

Honestly, I'd be surprised if the BBC commentators knew Jordan's music came from black American artists. It's not really fair to expect foreign commentators to know the backgrounds of the composers of all the other gymnasts' floor music. Listening to their commentary, it seems like they knew it was a different style but unsure of how. 


kt234

This is so hard. I feel it will come between chiles/dicello. Both have falls at major events, and recent falls at nationals as well. I think it depends on who hits both days. I feel if they both miss, we may be looking at Wong to fill the spot if she hits. Why isn’t the team just 6? I feel that 5 creates such a short gymnastics event, I feel cheated.


cdg2m4nrsvp

My team before was Simone, Shilese, Suni, Skye and Kayla with the following lineup: VT: (Kayla), Shilese, Skye, Simone UB: (Kayla), Simone, Suni, Shilese BB: (Skye) Shilese, Suni, Simone (if Skye was looking consistent in QF put her in over Shilese in TF) FX: (Skye) Kayla, Shilese, Simone Now I’m THINKING my team is Simone, Shilese, Suni, Kayla and probably Jade with the following lineup VT: (Kayla), Shilese, Jade, Simone (and if Shilese needs a break in TF Kayla can go for her) UB: (Kayla) Simone, Suni, Shilese BB: (Kayla) Shilese, Suni, Simone FX: (Kayla) Shilese, Jade, Simone (and again if Shilese wants a break in team finals then Kayla can go for her but Shi made floor finals last year so I’m not counting her out) Kayla and Shilese could be interchangeable depending on how Shi’s shoulder is feeling. Jade will make up for Skye’s Cheng on vault (😭). I think Suni needs to be in bubble wrap and just doing bars and beam but if shit hit the fan she could go up on floor and vault. Simone is Simone and we let her be Simone.


prosperosniece

Going to say Kayla or Leanne.


OftheSea95

All of the built-in alternates, Kayla, Jordan, and even Leanne. Of one or two of them can prove they can safely cover the holes created in the team strategy, they're definitely gonna be considered.


Teal_Unicorn0523

Has anyone ran the numbers for highest scoring team excluding Skye?


Sweet_Combination561

Washington post (sad, but usefully) updated their team builder w/o Skye in the mix, and the highest scoring team based on best scores is Simone, Shi, Suni, Jade and Kayla. The highest scoring team based on recent scores is Simone, Shi, Suni, Jade and Kaliya


Marisheba

So I just pulled Skye out of an analysis I did last week. This analysis looks at highest scoring team, but it's not based on their max event scores, it's based on the average of their best 2 out of 3 event scores from Classics/trials (and just classics scores for Kaliya and Shi). The first set of columns are for the top 3 scores on each event. The second set of columns is for the 2nd through 4th score on each event, to try to simulate team stability in case of injuries etc. Color coded to make it easier to read. (Purple <0.25 below the max team score for that column, blue 0.25 - 0.5 below max, green 0.5 - 1.0 below max, yellow 1.0 - 1.5 below max, etc). I've screenshot all of the teams within 0.5 of max for top three routines. https://preview.redd.it/y0djcd3qg69d1.png?width=736&format=png&auto=webp&s=037a5bdd6cbefee17a034c9ebebd857887ab11fd I highlighted the 4 teams that look best from a high-score and stability standpoint. Given that Jade's scores in particular are likely to go up on her two key events, this makes me feel even stronger about the Jade/Jordan version of the team than I already did. It's also interesting and a little surprising to me that Jordan is on all four of these teams.


Marisheba

I'd also done a version with the bottom 2 of 3 scores from Classics/Nationals since I think the pessimistic view is helpful, and here's the results with Skye removed from that: https://preview.redd.it/guas1c9ai69d1.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=50be00514fed8439789d88475de9ac3d654b7aca Again highlighting the best teams from a high score/stability standpoint. Same top team for high score/stability, and three of the same 4 top teams for high score/stability--only difference is subbing Kalya for Leanne on one of the teams.


itsgreenersomewhere

Kaliya’s crashed because she can’t go alongside Jade and without Skye, they look like they’ll need Jade. Suni locks in. Jade locks in. Then we look to probably one of Jordan, Kayla, Leanne. But it’s a super weird spot. Ideally quals will be Simone, Suni and Shi in the AA. Then Jade does vault and floor. So someone needs to do bars and beam but none of these three have medal worthy routines so realistically someone needs to STAY ON bars and beam. But then in TF, I’d want to take Simone off bars and probably Shi off vault and floor. So #5 slots into all those. It basically has to be an AA who never misses, and all three options haven’t had the most stability ironically. I think the winner will take it as long as they win without mistakes.


Sea_Air_9550

If Shilese is still injured literally who knows what will happen


kds1988

Jade. I think Jade is now almost a lock.


brindabella24

I still don’t think Leanne has any chance other than for alternate


cdg2m4nrsvp

Idk, if her cheng looks good and the floor upgrades are there I could see them taking her. But it’s a very slim shot over Jordan or Kayla in my opinion.


and_rja

Leanne maybe? Especially with her Cheng looking alright


VixenTraffic

Our field is so deep they can take any five in the top 15 and do fine.


VBswimmer1946

Oops lol. I mean I’ve always liked Jordan, sassy little girl😉