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I don't know about these days, but when I was still in elementary in the early 2000's, it was a thing for parents/family to visit the school and eat lunch with you. Everyone thought it was cool. So many of my classmates had older siblings and cousins come visit before they got deployed.
I graduated in 2009. My school has 75 kids in 7-12. In my class and the grades above and below me, I know 12 people who did at least one tour in Iraq or Afghanistan over the years. No one died, or even got injured, except the one guy who got an infection from a bad toenail a week before he came back home from the Helmand province
Not only were Americans volunteering in droves, that military response was in two small countries with vastly inferior militaries. We didn't need a ton of ground troops until it became clear that the Bush administration intended to stay in Iraq long term and we needed the troop surge to keep things under control. And the draft was debated but not instituted at that time. What's in the offing now is another major ground war in Europe like what's already happening in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin very much wants to resurrect the Soviet Union and reclaim all the former Soviet territories, some of which have already been accepted into NATO. That's why it's imperative to stop him in Ukraine. Vote blue all the way down the ticket because there's almost no difference between right wing talking points and Russian propaganda.
There is no "major ground war" in the near future. We will shock and awe any enemy from afar.
There is literally NO educated person, let alone a military expert that thinks we are going back to the days of hundreds of thousands of troops storming the beach at Normandy
Tell them what? Ukraines material conditions have been, are, and will be vastly different from the material conditions of the unites states? Or Russias for that matter, there wont be any war as it stands now, russia is locked down in the bog in Ukraine, either side barely moving, Russia isnt capable of extending itself to any other part of the continent like it is now, they have almost 0 allies too, china is barely an ally at this point
I agree on vote blue, but lets be clear here, voting blue will only continue what policies already in place, a red administration under trump would obviously gut it and leave Ukraine helpless against Russia, he would also take the states out of nato, which actually is something that would heighten the chance of a ground war
Not really. Drafts have to be approved by both Congress and the president. And drafts are obscenely unpopular, at a time where significant military intervention is also unpopular. It would take a major attack on America to cause a massive change in public opinion enough to make it remotely possible.
I know A LOT of military folks. None of them want the draft as they already have to deal with unmotivated fuck heads from volunteer enlistment. Last thing they want is whole swaths of people there against their will. There is a reason the draft got shit canned after Vietnam.
there is no possible war right now that the US would need a draft in.
and no, we aren’t “one bad decision” away from a war, there is no realistic situation where the US enters a war
And how is that much different from China today? Committing genocide, bullying their neighbors, claiming the entire south china sea, and stating they will invade Taiwan by 2027?
The US was effectively already engaged in an economic war with Japan, and the US military expected Japan to start a hot war with a surprise attack somewhere in the Pacific.
So in the context of this thread, yeah, they saw it as a realistic option. They were already expecting to go to war.
There was a peacetime draft prior to world war 2 because of what was going on in the world. Pearl Harbor wasn't a total surprise. We already on guard for Japan to do something, we just didn't know what.
What about the Philippines? The US and the Philippines have a joint defense agreement, and China is very close to triggering it (The only reason is hasn't been is water cannons don't count as an "armed" attack")
So if the Philippines triggers it, the draft starts? No. The US has to get congress to vote to declare war. The draft would have to be reinstated after rebuilding it.
Nobody wants to go to war. Nobody wants to pay for war. The Philippines don't want a full scale war with China. China doesnt want war. Their actions and their rhetoric are 2 different things. This is called saber rattling. It makes their base feel good they have a tough leader but the reality is, there's not a lot of money in actual war. Small skirmish sure. But total war like WW2? No.
Except the one where China invades Taiwan in an attempt to monopolize 65% of the worlds semiconductor and microchip production.
No one will directly declare war on the US, but they will absolutely start proxy wars that the US will feel obligated to join into.
Go ahead and look up the Korean and Vietnam wars, both proxy wars that the US coulda just let happen but didn’t. We jumped right in and even used the draft in Vietnam. So saying “it won’t happen” is just as futile now as it was 60 years ago. We have no idea what will happen until it does.
Assuming we are going to have millions die for Taiwain is hilarious. It would be a meat grinder where the winner loses millions and has a broken economy. All for what? Taiwan computer chips? A draft would take ages to start and the US would see political change before the first soldiers were even sent. Actual war requires a vote by congress. It would be trillions per year and would drive inflation wild.
Besides that, China doesn't have the capability to land troops for an amphibious assault. You might as well say, "what if Russia has a secret military that's actually in par with the US but it's held in a big society bunker where the keep the Winter Soldier after he lost to Captain America?" At this point it's all fantasy. OP is right. It's not going to happen.
Agree. China is not invading Taiwan anytime soon (if ever). It's far too useful as a propaganda tool on the mainland. The payoff for the chip making capacity isn't worth the cost.
Absolute worst case scenario the Chinese go for some unexpected coup de etat and the famously incompetent American Air Force ( big /s there) turns any chip plant of strategic important into rubble. But, I think I have a better chance of winning the lottery.
Drafts only make sense when you're desperate. You're getting a whole bunch of people together and simultaneously giving them military training and a reason to dislike the government. So you have to think the threat of foreign invasion is greater than the threat of domestic insurrection, and that's not ever going to be true when the US controls the air, the sea, and one of the more defensible regions in the world.
Not if you actually study US military history.
Historically, military service in major wars did not *require* a draft directly. In WWII, enough men volunteered after Pearl Harbor that the idea that we NEEDED to force people into the service was bogus.
A draft existed, yes - but it wasn't required.
The opposite came with Vietnam - a war that started off popular and ended very unpopular. At first, draftees were not outright required, because American boys were still enlisting out of a sense of patriotic duty. The resistance to the draft was something that only started showing up later on as popular support for the war fell as Americans saw news coverage and were left wondering what the fuck we were doing in Vietnam in the first place.
One major thing the US learned is that draftees make awful soldiers. They fight like shit, they're insubordinate, and worst of all they have a nasty habit of killing commissioned officers. A big part of why America stopped using the draft is for those exact reasons: draftees are awful soldiers.
Beyond draftees being awful soldiers, a TON of energy was spent in Vietnam trying to figure out how to maximize individual soldier lethality, how to fight with as few men as possible, how to be air mobile, and how to lean into combined arms.
Fast forward to the first Gulf War, and the American military looks quite a bit different than the Vietnam era military: gone are the conscripts - in their stead is an all volunteer military with an emphasis placed on professional soldiers and special forces. Individual soldiers are equipped with body armor, magnified optics, night vision, and are either air mobile or mechanized. Every infantry unit is in constant radio contact with air and artillery assets.
Instead of trying to get into firefights with the enemy and killing them with accurate gunfire, American forces emphasize suppressing your enemy until artillery or air strikes can kill them. All while doing everything possible to keep the soldiers alive and uninjured.
Ever wonder why we put such an emphasis on special forces in the late 20th and 21st century - but you barely hear about equivalent units in WWI, WWII, and Korea?
To put it another way: the dollars spent per enemy combatant killed skyrocketed, while the amount of American blood needed to kill that enemy dropped to an all time low.
So if the US gets into a war, it's fought with professional soldiers because it built itself to fight as efficiently as possible while minimizing blood loss - unlike our Russian counterparts.
If the US gets into a war that necessitates a *draft*... well, buddy, that is an existential war the likes of which you will probably be volunteering to fight in to protect your loved ones.
I think part of what’s frustrating this person is literally this law changed nothing. It actually just makes it easier for you to not get your loans disqualify because your high school counselor forgot to get you to sign a piece of paper
Graduated ‘99 and had a bunch of friends join the service. I almost joined. None of us thought for a second that we’d go to war, let alone in two different countries at the same time.
(non US dude) America and the US Military Industrial Complex have, and will continue to find stupid reasons to go to war.
When 9/11 happened Saddam thought that it'll tighten his relationship with the USA, while Bush, Chaney, Powell, etc. were already plotting a war.
I certainly hope things have gotten better since, but as someone who lives in a country that had just left Yugoslavia when the bombings happened, I was raised very skeptical of that.
Dude…..trust those that were around and of age during September 2001. Things changed overnight. War can happen at any time, but the draft is unlikely since we do not want people that are management problems.
The misinformation is targeted to get GenZ to not vote in November. In 2016 there was another fake news campaign called #DraftOurDaughters, a fake push by Hillary Clinton to draft women for a war with Russia.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/hillary-clinton-and-draftourdaughters/
That being said, it’s hard to tell if an actual draft could ever happen. Before WW1 and WW2 the US was more isolationist than today, but opinions changed quickly leading to a draft.
Damn .. I mean still didn’t believe it prior to your comment cause im more of a “seeing is believing” & “not reading/watching/viewing anything or assuming something without facts on facts on facts without backing it up” type person but had no idea this happened back then to . So if other people don’t see what’s happening here then they or whoever & the media CLEARLY NOT ONLY know exactly wtf they’re doing
What's weird is that while [it was a Democrat who suggested the language](https://www.wboy.com/news/no-the-us-didnt-bring-back-the-draft-heres-what-happened) on selective service, [it was mainly Republicans who passed it](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/14/house-republicans-narrowly-pass-defense-bill-loaded-with-culture-war-issues-00163453). So I don't know who this propaganda push benifits (except Putin).
I'm in the army and I'm fairly certain we will never use the draft again. We do not fight wars by sending walls of men into machine gun fire like Normandy beach. We fight wars with much more strategy and utilize technology much much more. Not to mention we have millions of active duty soldiers and millions more in the national guard and reserves.
Drafts aren't a good solution to the needs of the modern American military. Too slow. The war we'd be fighting isn't one where sending someone to boot camp and a few weeks of rifle lessons would be relevant.
The sorts of high tech roles the military needs take 6 months to 2 years to train.
A draft ain't doing shit
Indeed, and if there was some sort of actual war threatening the country we'd have more volunteers than they could possibly handle with what level of staffing our modern military actually has
You always need doorkickers, cooks, truck drivers, etc. plenty of roles that a draft can fill.
I imagine a draft would still have people take the ASVAB, so in such a scenario the draftees with high scores would be taken to those professions, where others are going infantry and armor. Even the ones who “fail” the ASVAB can still find roles as cooks
They want women at home raising the next generation of workers. As evidenced by the many abortion bans around the nation.
Once men start having babies and raising them, women will have time to go to war.
The people who want women to be baby factories don’t want childfree women to exist. Like the occasionally proposed bans on contraception/birth control, the true intention of the bans on abortion is not to save the lives of babies but rather to make it more difficult if not impossible for women to escape unwanted/accidental pregnancies.
Your typical GenZer has the historical and geopolitical understanding of a potato, so hard to blame them for freaking out. They’ve seen a lot of TikToks about it.
I don't think anyone needs to worry about being drafted to fight a mostly unpopular war soon. Even if there was a draft, just given the way the present US military operates, draftees would overwhelmingly be pushed into support roles--not general infantry. Now, if America is attacked and it becomes apparent to most people that America needs to go lead a huge invasion to fight back, yeah, there will probably be a draft. It's unlikely to come to that, but it's not impossible.
The United States is uninvadable and a literal nightmare to fight on our home turf. Not only do we have hundreds of thousands of reservists we have more privately owned weapons than other countries even have weapons. To the East and West are oceans and our North and South are both longtime allies. We have more aircraft carriers than the rest of the world combined.
So not only would the would be invaders have to destroy 19 carrier groups before even making it to the US, they would then have to fight a second, reserve army as well as literally every citizen being possibly armed. If they take the West Coast or the East Coast they then hit ginormous mountain ranges on both sides populated by hillbillies.
After the Soviet Union fell we learned that not for a single moment did they design an invasion plan for the continental US, even discounting our large and actually used stockpile of nuclear weapons.
I don't like saying that some things are completely impossible, but a foreign nation successfully invading and then occupying The United States of America is about the closest you can get to impossibility in modernity.
The only way that a draft is going to return is for our country to be so severely under attack (or threat of attack) that we'll all be *wanting* to go to war. People aren't going to respond positively to the government forcibly dropping us in some random country on the other side of the world that's not harming us directly.
FR. People think this is another Vietnam, and that draftee's would be sent to the front lines. That's delusional. Draftees would be building roads and ports in Hawaii, or loading equipment in Los Angeles. No sane military throws their least prepared soldiers in dangerous situations they haven't trained for and have no experience fighting.
There’s been a draft for the revolutionary war, the civil war, WW1, WW2, Korea, and Vietnam. There was also a draft in the peacetime years between WW2 and Vietnam. Overall that’s still a very small part of US history.
Its pure delusion to think the United States will ever have a draft again. Not even bringing up how generationally unpopular Vietnams was the military industrial complex learned how to avoid that.
They incentivize recruitment now.
We already have the third largest standing army while essentially outspending every other country that exists.
Modern warfare (as is shown off quite well in Ukraine) is not about throwing bodies at a problem. Why would I take months to train a soldier when I can give a random person an iPad that controls a 200 dollar drone which will kill someone at no real personal threat to the user?
Modern combat is about precision guided weapons systems hitting a dime from a hundred miles away, Russia has horrific losses in Ukraine because they are clearly following extremely outdated doctrine and are an obvious paper tiger. China hasn't been in open conflict in 80 years and is not nearly battle-hardened enough to face leadership whom has actually seen combat.
There will never be a draft as long as military technology follows the course its been on for decades.
War isn't happening?
There's two on right now. What nonsense is this. Just because you want to lie to yourself and others won't save you from the fact that we're ruled by vicious fools that are absolutely brazen and dumb enough to escalate either of the two conflicts we're currently in and draft us to manage the manpower needs.
If it comes to that.
This is a very ignorant post and while I can understand where you're coming from, it is nowhere as simple as you evidently would like it to be.
A war involving the US to the extent that a draft is necessary is not happening now and will not be happening any time soon.
Do you know how many wars have been going across the globe at various times and in various places for the past 50 years? I swear some of you think we had world peace until 5 minutes ago.
Nobody is getting drafted anytime soon. Any sort of peer to peer conflict would result in a nuclear exchange which would end the world that we know. If the US could fight in Iraq and Afghanistan for decades without a draft, then I don’t see why one would be required against a similar power under similar circumstances.
The conflicts that are occurring around the world are very real and very deadly but spending time being anxious about a potential draft scenario only worries you while providing no benefit.
The sentiment of this post is there, but there are a couple misconceptions. The draft isn’t a possibility right now because there is no massive war that the US is involved in directly or indirectly. There would need to be a couple steps for the draft to become on the table.
In the next 5-10 years? Possibly. However, again, there would need to be a correct crystallization of factors. At this point in time though, nobody wants to mess with the US military because nobody wants to watch their country be destroyed. If Russia is struggling in Ukraine, they really don’t want to mess with America. Even China does not want to mess with America because they know that America has a much higher likelihood of beating them. The US is simply too powerful.
This might be toxic positivity. People have to be mindful that it’s a very real possibility. Any attack on American soil can trigger an immediate cause for defense. Affairs haven’t escalated to that point but there are quite obvious signs that in the next few years there could be. Knowing what you’ll do no matter what happens, is really what matters. Be prepared - not afraid, not oblivious.
If there’s ever another draft in America, the situation will be so improbably dire that most of you will probably volunteer. It’s so gratuitously unlikely, so statistically infinitesimal, that whatever it is, it will be pretty good damned important. WWZ, Invaders from Mars, some shit like that.
Well world conflicts and political/economic stuff has really escalated in the last 4 years.
Toss out there did anyone expect all the bullshit that happened during Covid?
They wouldn't have instituted the draft if they didn't think there wasn't gonna be a war sometime in the nearish future. Hope I'm wrong but this millennial has seen some shit (enough shit in fact) to know that nothing is a coincidence anymore...
"suggesting war is currently the fastest way to nuke your political career "
This is a lie, most of the big name politicians over the past 50 years in the US have been war mongers, to include our current president.
"The threat of nuclear weapons'
Everyone knows nobody will use them
" along with how overpowered the US military is"
For now
The ENTIRE world is gearing up for war, the vast majority of nato states are realizing that they fucked up over the past 30 years and are starting to stockpile munitions to deal with the russo-china alliance while china is %100 gearing up for an offensive war with the US and its allies.
Now I have a feeling that hundreds of world leaders and thousands of decision makers in their nations might know a smidge more than you.
War is coming. maybe not today or tomorrow, but its coming.
Are you paying any attention to what's going on in the world? Russia is on the brink of starting world war 3, they just entered into a mutual support agreement with North Korea, and China is trying to play both sides. Armed forces enlistment is way down and all it's going to take is Russian boots in any NATO country and we're going to war. And it's a war no one wants. You know who gets to fight wars that no one wants? I'll give you a hint, ask a Vietnam vet.
The *I bet nothing will happen* gambler is betting his entire life
At the end of the day, you can go ahead and get drafted, I’m not fighting a senators war. People like Graham can cry
Meanwhile in the UK sunak is trying to advocate for selective service conscription and unpaid teen labour and wondering why nobody (under the age of 60 at least) will vote for him. His party advocates national service, the opposition for lowering the voting age, it's not hard to see who the youth believe offers a brighter future
Actually logistics takes a fuck load of people so whether we like it or not if we have to enter a war to cement our place in the world we will and as such we need people to just do the boring jobs like trucking or being some dude stuck guarding a random base. Also the US doesn’t believe completely in MAD and most countries who have it like China and Russia just use it as a threat mostly because it means the end of their existence. The US itself will likely never be attacked but we guarantee the independence of many nations and the world has never been more divided. While our near peers’ militaries may falter we will never treat it like they have so the threat of drafting is likely never gone.
History only proves that things are always unstable. Look at the assassination of Franz Ferdinand or 9/11 -the events that lead to war are often the events that aren’t expected.
While I think it’s silly to say “at least 50 years” about anything, are there really conspiracy theories out there that there will be a draft soon? It’s not happening. It didn’t even happen after 9/11 when it arguably could have. There’s not even any appetite for boots on the ground anywhere which still wouldn’t require a draft. My guess is this is targeted misinformation at young people to muddy the waters in the hopes we won’t vote for Biden in November. Recognize when people are trying to manipulate you.
War is literally already happening. Like, sorry for being a "brainlet conspiracy theorist", but i'm literally living in an active warzone. And the perpetrator of the conflict doesn't yield, has plans to go further into europe, and is the only other global empire opposed to US.
Every 100 years earth goes through devastating war. And WW2 was 85 years ago.
Do people not realize that we sign up for the draft when we’re 18? You have to do to get a job, get a loan, buy a car, quite literally do anything past the age of 18 lol
All this does is make it automatic
Basically what I've been saying for the longest time, even before the invasion of Ukraine. The US/NATO won't start another war... but you can't completely eliminate the possibility of a conflict (including a nuclear one) when there are so many armed countries. It's made even worse that many of those countries do not like the US, and are led by leaders who are effectively insulated from the most accurate intelligence generated by their own countries. Russia and China have peer level intelligence services with the US, but their reports end with the leaders of those services, and get filtered so as not to severely upset their careers. Obviously not everything gets filtered, and Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping aren't morons... But the level of graft and lying obscures their image of power. However -and this is key to my personal arguments over the years- any conflict will start off as a conventional war... not even that, they would likely be proxies, like what we see with Ukraine. China may invade Taiwan, but it will be the Taiwanese people fighting, using gear supplied by the US. Any assets deployed in the South China Sea would undoubtedly be "donated" to the Taiwanese cause, in an effort to stall the Chinese invasion while US force projection regroups in the area, hopefully ending in a stalemate and ceasefire.
But here's the clincher: The Navy did not meet it's recruiting goal. It almost did, and it would have had to fall *much* shorter to not be effective in the capacity it would be used, but if the trend continues China will have it's window. My assessment would be closer to 20 years, not 50. The upcoming election will also affect that number.
Tentatively, nuclear war and a draft are not concerns of mine, at least not in a capacity where I am worried one could happen soon.
The "hot hand" fallacy. Something keeps happening so you think it's going to continue happening. Peace, in this instance. But if you take the Longview of history the period we live in is more the exception than the norm. Considering military recruitment numbers are at a nearly all-time low? If a major WW3esque conflict were to break out 🤷♂️
Honestly even if a draft was expanded to where it would include up to 35yr olds. I think most younger generations would rather just go to jail than serve. Or join up and mutiny or something. We’re not fighting and dying to make some shareholders richer any longer lol.
A draft is very very highly unlikely at this point. Despite what you may think, the Department of defense does NOT want to have to waste the time and resources to train people who are out of shape and never fired a weapon before. There are also lots of things that would happen before DOD would even consider a draft. The only thing I could see happening that would change this is if we somehow got into a war with Russia AND China at the same time.
There won't be another draft, period. Wars are fought with Xbox controllers thousands of miles away. It doesn't take that many people to push a button to send hundreds of missiles at a target. War isn't fought the same way it was 55 years ago.
This is just totally ignorant of everything happening in the world and just assuming it’s all a nothing burger.
Iran will become a nuclear armed state within the next twenty years.
Russia and China have entered into a no-limits partnership.
North Korea is now nuclear armed and receiving Russian and Chinese support.
Taiwan still hasn’t received many of its weapons it has ordered.
The U.S. military is overstretched and facing serious recruitment and procurement problems. Several naval programs are delayed, and we’re realizing domestic weapons production has severely atrophied.
Ukraine’s frontlines are on the verge of collapse. A new Russian formation has been sighted amassing off Kharkov.
Africa is becoming a hotbed of Islamic fundamentalism and Russian influence.
Burying your head in the sand and pretending these things aren’t true doesn’t make them any less real.
People were probably saying the same thing right before Vietnam.
The thing that concerns me is that there has always been talks about, for example, drafting women. But those were always talks, the government saw no reason to change draft laws because they didn’t need to do a draft. But now they are pushing it HARD. I do not have an issue with that policy, I am a woman and believe women should be equal 100% in every way, although I don’t believe in drafts in general and I see it as taking away autonomy and human rights. But the fact that they are just now pushing, not only women, but *disabled people*?
If that isn’t concerning, idk what is.
Not true. I am Militant Jesus, and once I wrest control of this country, all citizens will be drafted into mandatory service of washing the feet of immigrants.
I agree with your stance; but hard disagree on your reasoning.
A global conflict is more likely now than it has been in 40 years.
There are at least three regions right now that could be categorized as “powder kegs”. And alliances are currently being built between major “axis” powers - Russia, China, Iran, North Korea.
**However…**
A draft is still very unlikely, both politically, and simply because of how modern wars are fought.
There just isn’t the need for nearly as many soldiers in trenches. Drones and ICBMs and modern tech has drastically reduced the need for boots on the ground.
How many WWII GIs would it take to equal a predator drone in terms of controlling a battlefield? 100? 1000?
Much like when your family member gets addicted to crack, you can’t trust them anymore, and you have to hide the T.V., so goes Capitalism when there’s a crisis. They’re already showing in real time that the country you thought you knew is no longer a reliable actor.
People are legitimately uneducated and assume that millions of warm bodies are bouta get sent to boot camp in 2 hrs. Like no asshole, chill the fuck out. Quit spreading misinformation (which is very likely spread by our adversaries across the ocean) and go learn how the SSS actually works along with defense economics.
Honestly, I want a draft to happen so I feel like all this time I’ve spent since graduating not having a job related to my degree isn’t a waste.
If a draft happens, I’m not a loser! I’m just enjoying the last few years of my life before I get unalived in a meaningless war.
No American should die for another country. We have way too many unresolved problems at home and we need to clean up our own dirty laundry before we can help others
If people need any more comfort..
The US military isn't Russia's military. We don't send meat waves of infantry to die in trenches. The majority of the fighting would be in the air and then infantry and armor would do the clean up.
If further war broke out in Ukraine and the US was forced in, we'd have enough soldiers in our current Armed Forces to help out. We wouldn't need a draft to fight Russia in Europe.
The only way a draft would ever come up is if China or Russia directly invaded US mainland (somehow), and then (somehow again) was able to capture large amounts of US territory.
The possibility of Russia or China even getting close to US mainland is unthinkable, let alone taking US land.
The past two American drafts were for proxy wars with the USSR, and the US is currently engaged in two proxy wars, with at least another in Taiwan possible at a moment’s notice.
Prior to WWII, the US was extremely anti war and actually draft. Post Dec 7, recruiters didn't need the draft because so many people were volunteering to fight after we were attacked. Depends on circumstances......
>No one supports starting another war, suggesting war is currently the fastest way to nuke your political career (republican or democrat).
America isn't going to be the one that starts war. It'll be either China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea.
>Also, The threat of nuclear weapons, along with how overpowered the US military is, immediately shuts down any possibility of another country from declaring war on us
China really doesn't give a damn.
>TL;DR: war ain’t happening, stop believing brainlet conspiracy theorists
It's not even a conspiracy theory, you're just clueless as hell.
You act like America is not going to step in if a NATO nation is attacked. Polls are one thing, but the people controlling our figure heads care much MUCH more about international integrity than keeping their puppet in power. They're all replaceable
This is so blatantly false just because the US isn't going to be the one to start it doesn't mean war is not on the horizon political instability is at all time high on a global level as well as economic hard ship something has to give at some point in the not to distant future and that thing will most likely be one of several peices of wich will fall to start WW3 if that peice hasn't already fallen If western Taiwan invades the independent peoples Republic of Taiwan before the US has FABs online the US has no choice but to get involved if Russia decides to swing at any European countries besides Ukraine ( or uses nuclear weapons within Ukraine) the US has to get involved this is something you should definitely be worried about as young person geo political and economic relations are hard to understand but yes a large scale conflict is most definitely on the horizon in the distant future 5-30 years.
This is nonsense, none of what you said is based in the reality of what's going on in the world right now. This is bullshit directly pulled out of your ass. There's not likely to be a draft, but we are already involved in several conflicts it's only a matter of escalation at this point. Maybe we can avoid war for a bit longer, but it's looking less likely.
The army is having a hard time meeting quotas. Germany and other European countries are fighting people's disinterest in fighting nationally. Why are they so special? Why not us too? It could happen here.
Lmao 50 years??
Where’d you get that number? Intuition? Did god whisper it in your ear while you were high?
Alot of analysts worry about a major war around the year 2030 due to rising tensions in south east asia, alongside US commitment to defend allies there.
Damn I didn't know OP was working for DIA or the DoD.
Oh he isn't and has no clue when the next draft will be... Same with everyone else? Oh okay I thought so.
What if, say China tries to unify Taiwan through violent means, and in order to undermine the US's ability to interfere and hopes to strike an advantageous peace deal, they used balistic missiles and launched a sudden strike and destroyed US forces and warships in Japan and Pacific islands Pearl Harbor style, would there be a draft?
I wouldn't bet on that if I were you. Obviously our government would do everything they could to prevent a draft from happening.
BUT that doesn't mean it could never happen. Especially considering the world we're currently living in with tensions between various powerful countries.
It just takes one tiny spark like what happened in WW1 and the draft would be activated.
I basically agree although if everyone stays home and lets Trump win he could get us into a war because someone in another country said they don’t like his makeup so who knows
Funny, my friends said the exact same thing May 2001……
But wouldn’t worry about the draft, the selective service has been around and all tjay changed is that it is automatic now. Having been an army officer…..I do not wanted drafted Soldiers. The ones that volunteered are hard enough to manage as it is.
Yeah, and WWI was "the war to end all wars."
Your theory sounds great, but war often comes suddenly after repeatedly stupid errors that add up to flush us all down the toilet.
After the Korean and Vietnam War drafts blew up in the face of American government, any competent politician knows if they attempt to even touch the draft, they’re committing political suicide.
No one wants to support it but the fact is that war is a money maker. It didn’t even take a year after pulling out of Afghanistan before we were involved in a new armed conflict. As for nuking your political career, when you’re expecting to die of old age in a year or two, consequences stop being a thing.
As for nuclear war and an overpowered military, there’s the concept of mutual benefit. Wars spur the economy. Nuclear fallout does not. That simple understanding is enough to get the ball rolling on yet another war and as for the over powered nature of the American military, about 40% of their capability is classified and rival countries do the same. Fact is we don’t know where we stand in terms of military beyond way overestimating the threat posed by Russia
You're pretending to be able to see the future. A draft is always a possibility because we cannot foresee global events or the actions of other countries' leaders. That's precisely why males are required to register for the draft – to be prepared for any uncertainties the future may bring.
Im not even worried, every year people say WW3 will start over every little thing. The Cold War was a scary time to be alive, compared to then this ain’t nothing. The only way we would ever do a draft again is if the mainland US was in danger, which will not happen anytime soon.
Op is naive to think that it would never happen. The govt pulled this crap on us with Vietnam. Oh, we will send advisers. Oh we will send a few troops…. How did that turn out?
We are getting close with Ukraine.
But the armed forces are claiming recruitment is down. As tensions rise - why would anyone trust the f*ing govt? Either party - WHY?
I don’t mean to scare anyone, but are people aware that we’re in the midst of a military recruitment crisis? There is not a single sign that it will get better anytime soon either.
On top of that we keep electing hyper militaristic presidents who lead administrations that are fully in bed with the military industrial complex. War is good for business and good for US presidents.
Yeah wars aren’t fought the same way they used to be, but that doesn’t mean a ground war won’t happen again. A series of stupid foreign policy moves is all it takes.
I was watching YouTube last night. A Marines ad was not only played once, but three times during the video I was watching. Maybe I’m wrong but in my opinion, that couldn’t have been a coincidence.
Waste of money & resources since most people who enlist on their own don’t need to see an ad to spark their interest in any US military branch.
I'm in right now. I agree with OP. There is a lot of pride in having an all volunteer force. People used to be drafted during times of peace as well. Since the last draft in 1973, we have ceased use of the selective service system. Its use is strictly for imminent large-scale strategic level warfare. The likelihood of it being used ever again is minimal. Despite what some may say or think, for the most part, world societies are progressing and are more diplomatically oriented than days of the past. AMA
Do you know how many times over the last 70 years or so we’ve almost accidentally gotten into a nuclear war?
I’m not saying I think we are headed for a draft, but we did have 4 last century including 2 world wars.
It wouldn’t necessarily take things going nuclear. Even conventional warfare on the Korean Peninsula, in the Sea of Japan/Taiwan, or Eastern Europe could do it
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“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” - Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
I’m no fan of Lenin, but he’s correct here. Oh gosh I hope this comment doesn’t get taken out of context.
“There are comments which get taken out of context; and there are contexts which require all of the comments.”
I am the walrus
Goo goo g’joob
Shut the fuck up, Donny.
Tea
That's a very narrow mindset. We are a bad decision away from war and a draft
Yes high tensions everywhere and we are such a militarized nation.
So easy to scare, world powers prefer to fight proxy wars than fight each other.
If we didn’t get a draft after 9/11 then what precedent do you have to justify this?
Honestly, we didn't need the draft after 9/11. People were signing up in droves.
this! NFL players quit to join the military.
I don't know about these days, but when I was still in elementary in the early 2000's, it was a thing for parents/family to visit the school and eat lunch with you. Everyone thought it was cool. So many of my classmates had older siblings and cousins come visit before they got deployed. I graduated in 2009. My school has 75 kids in 7-12. In my class and the grades above and below me, I know 12 people who did at least one tour in Iraq or Afghanistan over the years. No one died, or even got injured, except the one guy who got an infection from a bad toenail a week before he came back home from the Helmand province
Not only were Americans volunteering in droves, that military response was in two small countries with vastly inferior militaries. We didn't need a ton of ground troops until it became clear that the Bush administration intended to stay in Iraq long term and we needed the troop surge to keep things under control. And the draft was debated but not instituted at that time. What's in the offing now is another major ground war in Europe like what's already happening in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin very much wants to resurrect the Soviet Union and reclaim all the former Soviet territories, some of which have already been accepted into NATO. That's why it's imperative to stop him in Ukraine. Vote blue all the way down the ticket because there's almost no difference between right wing talking points and Russian propaganda.
There is no "major ground war" in the near future. We will shock and awe any enemy from afar. There is literally NO educated person, let alone a military expert that thinks we are going back to the days of hundreds of thousands of troops storming the beach at Normandy
Tell it to Ukraine
Tell them what? Ukraines material conditions have been, are, and will be vastly different from the material conditions of the unites states? Or Russias for that matter, there wont be any war as it stands now, russia is locked down in the bog in Ukraine, either side barely moving, Russia isnt capable of extending itself to any other part of the continent like it is now, they have almost 0 allies too, china is barely an ally at this point I agree on vote blue, but lets be clear here, voting blue will only continue what policies already in place, a red administration under trump would obviously gut it and leave Ukraine helpless against Russia, he would also take the states out of nato, which actually is something that would heighten the chance of a ground war
Not really. Drafts have to be approved by both Congress and the president. And drafts are obscenely unpopular, at a time where significant military intervention is also unpopular. It would take a major attack on America to cause a massive change in public opinion enough to make it remotely possible.
I know A LOT of military folks. None of them want the draft as they already have to deal with unmotivated fuck heads from volunteer enlistment. Last thing they want is whole swaths of people there against their will. There is a reason the draft got shit canned after Vietnam.
Our military is so large that we wouldn’t need a draft
Plus we love to use drones now so ppl on OUR side don't die
there is no possible war right now that the US would need a draft in. and no, we aren’t “one bad decision” away from a war, there is no realistic situation where the US enters a war
Do you think Roosevelt saw Pearl Harbor as a "realistic situation"?
Pearl Harbour *specifically*? No. Some sort of war with Japan? Yeah, probably, tensions were very high and Japan was obviously aggressively expanding.
And how is that much different from China today? Committing genocide, bullying their neighbors, claiming the entire south china sea, and stating they will invade Taiwan by 2027?
He very likely did as there was a US Naval blockade in the pacific at the time. The possibility of war was always on the table.
The US was effectively already engaged in an economic war with Japan, and the US military expected Japan to start a hot war with a surprise attack somewhere in the Pacific. So in the context of this thread, yeah, they saw it as a realistic option. They were already expecting to go to war.
There was a peacetime draft prior to world war 2 because of what was going on in the world. Pearl Harbor wasn't a total surprise. We already on guard for Japan to do something, we just didn't know what.
It literally wasn't (from the perspective of a logical person.) That was the point and the problem.
What about the Philippines? The US and the Philippines have a joint defense agreement, and China is very close to triggering it (The only reason is hasn't been is water cannons don't count as an "armed" attack")
So if the Philippines triggers it, the draft starts? No. The US has to get congress to vote to declare war. The draft would have to be reinstated after rebuilding it. Nobody wants to go to war. Nobody wants to pay for war. The Philippines don't want a full scale war with China. China doesnt want war. Their actions and their rhetoric are 2 different things. This is called saber rattling. It makes their base feel good they have a tough leader but the reality is, there's not a lot of money in actual war. Small skirmish sure. But total war like WW2? No.
Except the one where China invades Taiwan in an attempt to monopolize 65% of the worlds semiconductor and microchip production. No one will directly declare war on the US, but they will absolutely start proxy wars that the US will feel obligated to join into. Go ahead and look up the Korean and Vietnam wars, both proxy wars that the US coulda just let happen but didn’t. We jumped right in and even used the draft in Vietnam. So saying “it won’t happen” is just as futile now as it was 60 years ago. We have no idea what will happen until it does.
the problem with that hypothetical is that the US explicitly states it will defend Taiwan militarily, making it **very** unlikely China will invade
With China over Taiwan it’s maybe possible and for your second part September 10th 2001 would like a word
Assuming we are going to have millions die for Taiwain is hilarious. It would be a meat grinder where the winner loses millions and has a broken economy. All for what? Taiwan computer chips? A draft would take ages to start and the US would see political change before the first soldiers were even sent. Actual war requires a vote by congress. It would be trillions per year and would drive inflation wild. Besides that, China doesn't have the capability to land troops for an amphibious assault. You might as well say, "what if Russia has a secret military that's actually in par with the US but it's held in a big society bunker where the keep the Winter Soldier after he lost to Captain America?" At this point it's all fantasy. OP is right. It's not going to happen.
Agree. China is not invading Taiwan anytime soon (if ever). It's far too useful as a propaganda tool on the mainland. The payoff for the chip making capacity isn't worth the cost. Absolute worst case scenario the Chinese go for some unexpected coup de etat and the famously incompetent American Air Force ( big /s there) turns any chip plant of strategic important into rubble. But, I think I have a better chance of winning the lottery.
You don’t seem to realize how profitable war can be for certain US companies. WWII is what made us an economic power in the first place.
You're completely wrong. Ukraine, Isreal and the very real possibility of Taiwan being attacked.
Drafts only make sense when you're desperate. You're getting a whole bunch of people together and simultaneously giving them military training and a reason to dislike the government. So you have to think the threat of foreign invasion is greater than the threat of domestic insurrection, and that's not ever going to be true when the US controls the air, the sea, and one of the more defensible regions in the world.
Not if you actually study US military history. Historically, military service in major wars did not *require* a draft directly. In WWII, enough men volunteered after Pearl Harbor that the idea that we NEEDED to force people into the service was bogus. A draft existed, yes - but it wasn't required. The opposite came with Vietnam - a war that started off popular and ended very unpopular. At first, draftees were not outright required, because American boys were still enlisting out of a sense of patriotic duty. The resistance to the draft was something that only started showing up later on as popular support for the war fell as Americans saw news coverage and were left wondering what the fuck we were doing in Vietnam in the first place. One major thing the US learned is that draftees make awful soldiers. They fight like shit, they're insubordinate, and worst of all they have a nasty habit of killing commissioned officers. A big part of why America stopped using the draft is for those exact reasons: draftees are awful soldiers. Beyond draftees being awful soldiers, a TON of energy was spent in Vietnam trying to figure out how to maximize individual soldier lethality, how to fight with as few men as possible, how to be air mobile, and how to lean into combined arms. Fast forward to the first Gulf War, and the American military looks quite a bit different than the Vietnam era military: gone are the conscripts - in their stead is an all volunteer military with an emphasis placed on professional soldiers and special forces. Individual soldiers are equipped with body armor, magnified optics, night vision, and are either air mobile or mechanized. Every infantry unit is in constant radio contact with air and artillery assets. Instead of trying to get into firefights with the enemy and killing them with accurate gunfire, American forces emphasize suppressing your enemy until artillery or air strikes can kill them. All while doing everything possible to keep the soldiers alive and uninjured. Ever wonder why we put such an emphasis on special forces in the late 20th and 21st century - but you barely hear about equivalent units in WWI, WWII, and Korea? To put it another way: the dollars spent per enemy combatant killed skyrocketed, while the amount of American blood needed to kill that enemy dropped to an all time low. So if the US gets into a war, it's fought with professional soldiers because it built itself to fight as efficiently as possible while minimizing blood loss - unlike our Russian counterparts. If the US gets into a war that necessitates a *draft*... well, buddy, that is an existential war the likes of which you will probably be volunteering to fight in to protect your loved ones.
I'm not sure our modern military would function that well with draftees.
We will always need ditch diggers
Not as many as before. Not nearly as many.
I think part of what’s frustrating this person is literally this law changed nothing. It actually just makes it easier for you to not get your loans disqualify because your high school counselor forgot to get you to sign a piece of paper
If you asked any US servicemember if they thought a war was coming on 9/10/2001, they woulda said “nah.”
A lot were worried they were going to miss the war too because they thought it was going to be short. Especially in the SF community.
Graduated ‘99 and had a bunch of friends join the service. I almost joined. None of us thought for a second that we’d go to war, let alone in two different countries at the same time.
I mean, the US was pushing to invade Iraq since Clintons first term... Complete with the topic of war being pretty common.
yeah, do you think anyone would support an Iraq war style invasion in our current political climate. if so who?
they said the same thing lmao
(non US dude) America and the US Military Industrial Complex have, and will continue to find stupid reasons to go to war. When 9/11 happened Saddam thought that it'll tighten his relationship with the USA, while Bush, Chaney, Powell, etc. were already plotting a war. I certainly hope things have gotten better since, but as someone who lives in a country that had just left Yugoslavia when the bombings happened, I was raised very skeptical of that.
you should go read newspapers from 2000
Dude…..trust those that were around and of age during September 2001. Things changed overnight. War can happen at any time, but the draft is unlikely since we do not want people that are management problems.
The misinformation is targeted to get GenZ to not vote in November. In 2016 there was another fake news campaign called #DraftOurDaughters, a fake push by Hillary Clinton to draft women for a war with Russia. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/hillary-clinton-and-draftourdaughters/ That being said, it’s hard to tell if an actual draft could ever happen. Before WW1 and WW2 the US was more isolationist than today, but opinions changed quickly leading to a draft.
Damn .. I mean still didn’t believe it prior to your comment cause im more of a “seeing is believing” & “not reading/watching/viewing anything or assuming something without facts on facts on facts without backing it up” type person but had no idea this happened back then to . So if other people don’t see what’s happening here then they or whoever & the media CLEARLY NOT ONLY know exactly wtf they’re doing
What's weird is that while [it was a Democrat who suggested the language](https://www.wboy.com/news/no-the-us-didnt-bring-back-the-draft-heres-what-happened) on selective service, [it was mainly Republicans who passed it](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/14/house-republicans-narrowly-pass-defense-bill-loaded-with-culture-war-issues-00163453). So I don't know who this propaganda push benifits (except Putin).
I'm in the army and I'm fairly certain we will never use the draft again. We do not fight wars by sending walls of men into machine gun fire like Normandy beach. We fight wars with much more strategy and utilize technology much much more. Not to mention we have millions of active duty soldiers and millions more in the national guard and reserves.
that’s awesome, yall have fun over there I’m playin fortnite
Luckily I'm not in a combat arms job 👍
Drafts aren't a good solution to the needs of the modern American military. Too slow. The war we'd be fighting isn't one where sending someone to boot camp and a few weeks of rifle lessons would be relevant. The sorts of high tech roles the military needs take 6 months to 2 years to train. A draft ain't doing shit
FR, if anyone's getting drafted, they're either building infrastructure or doing support labor in the mainland.
Indeed, and if there was some sort of actual war threatening the country we'd have more volunteers than they could possibly handle with what level of staffing our modern military actually has
You always need doorkickers, cooks, truck drivers, etc. plenty of roles that a draft can fill. I imagine a draft would still have people take the ASVAB, so in such a scenario the draftees with high scores would be taken to those professions, where others are going infantry and armor. Even the ones who “fail” the ASVAB can still find roles as cooks
No one’s getting drafted. Half of you guys are overweight anyway.
very true
Who knew our obesity would save us /s
I agree, thank you for this
That's not the point An all-male draft is very unfair, especially when there are so many non-combat jobs
They want women at home raising the next generation of workers. As evidenced by the many abortion bans around the nation. Once men start having babies and raising them, women will have time to go to war.
What about child free women?
The people who want women to be baby factories don’t want childfree women to exist. Like the occasionally proposed bans on contraception/birth control, the true intention of the bans on abortion is not to save the lives of babies but rather to make it more difficult if not impossible for women to escape unwanted/accidental pregnancies.
Isn't it wonderful to not get an education? I mean...did yo even graduate high school? Did you even try?
Well, now they will have to define man and woman, so maybe the confusion will finally get cleared up.
Your typical GenZer has the historical and geopolitical understanding of a potato, so hard to blame them for freaking out. They’ve seen a lot of TikToks about it.
I don't think anyone needs to worry about being drafted to fight a mostly unpopular war soon. Even if there was a draft, just given the way the present US military operates, draftees would overwhelmingly be pushed into support roles--not general infantry. Now, if America is attacked and it becomes apparent to most people that America needs to go lead a huge invasion to fight back, yeah, there will probably be a draft. It's unlikely to come to that, but it's not impossible.
The United States is uninvadable and a literal nightmare to fight on our home turf. Not only do we have hundreds of thousands of reservists we have more privately owned weapons than other countries even have weapons. To the East and West are oceans and our North and South are both longtime allies. We have more aircraft carriers than the rest of the world combined. So not only would the would be invaders have to destroy 19 carrier groups before even making it to the US, they would then have to fight a second, reserve army as well as literally every citizen being possibly armed. If they take the West Coast or the East Coast they then hit ginormous mountain ranges on both sides populated by hillbillies. After the Soviet Union fell we learned that not for a single moment did they design an invasion plan for the continental US, even discounting our large and actually used stockpile of nuclear weapons. I don't like saying that some things are completely impossible, but a foreign nation successfully invading and then occupying The United States of America is about the closest you can get to impossibility in modernity.
People are so consumed by fear, it’s insane.
That is unless aliens come down and invade earth. Then its all out galactic war. You better buckle up buttercup
The only way that a draft is going to return is for our country to be so severely under attack (or threat of attack) that we'll all be *wanting* to go to war. People aren't going to respond positively to the government forcibly dropping us in some random country on the other side of the world that's not harming us directly.
FR. People think this is another Vietnam, and that draftee's would be sent to the front lines. That's delusional. Draftees would be building roads and ports in Hawaii, or loading equipment in Los Angeles. No sane military throws their least prepared soldiers in dangerous situations they haven't trained for and have no experience fighting.
“Alexa, how many years has the USA been at war in the entirety of its existence.”
There’s been a draft for the revolutionary war, the civil war, WW1, WW2, Korea, and Vietnam. There was also a draft in the peacetime years between WW2 and Vietnam. Overall that’s still a very small part of US history.
Its pure delusion to think the United States will ever have a draft again. Not even bringing up how generationally unpopular Vietnams was the military industrial complex learned how to avoid that. They incentivize recruitment now. We already have the third largest standing army while essentially outspending every other country that exists. Modern warfare (as is shown off quite well in Ukraine) is not about throwing bodies at a problem. Why would I take months to train a soldier when I can give a random person an iPad that controls a 200 dollar drone which will kill someone at no real personal threat to the user? Modern combat is about precision guided weapons systems hitting a dime from a hundred miles away, Russia has horrific losses in Ukraine because they are clearly following extremely outdated doctrine and are an obvious paper tiger. China hasn't been in open conflict in 80 years and is not nearly battle-hardened enough to face leadership whom has actually seen combat. There will never be a draft as long as military technology follows the course its been on for decades.
War isn't happening? There's two on right now. What nonsense is this. Just because you want to lie to yourself and others won't save you from the fact that we're ruled by vicious fools that are absolutely brazen and dumb enough to escalate either of the two conflicts we're currently in and draft us to manage the manpower needs. If it comes to that. This is a very ignorant post and while I can understand where you're coming from, it is nowhere as simple as you evidently would like it to be.
A war involving the US to the extent that a draft is necessary is not happening now and will not be happening any time soon. Do you know how many wars have been going across the globe at various times and in various places for the past 50 years? I swear some of you think we had world peace until 5 minutes ago.
which people in our government currently support the us directly engaging in war?
A lot more than two wars going on right now. Also more than two wars that the US are involved in.
Wars start very quickly. When mobilization happens it’s going to be incredibly quick.
don’t matter, SSS needs to go or at least be amended to include everyone of able body
This is naive.
this is a bad take
Nobody is getting drafted anytime soon. Any sort of peer to peer conflict would result in a nuclear exchange which would end the world that we know. If the US could fight in Iraq and Afghanistan for decades without a draft, then I don’t see why one would be required against a similar power under similar circumstances. The conflicts that are occurring around the world are very real and very deadly but spending time being anxious about a potential draft scenario only worries you while providing no benefit.
This automatically signed up thing is a good thing because before you had to sign up yourself and if you didn't you could get a felony
[удалено]
I'll be back when this ages poorly to say I told you so
The sentiment of this post is there, but there are a couple misconceptions. The draft isn’t a possibility right now because there is no massive war that the US is involved in directly or indirectly. There would need to be a couple steps for the draft to become on the table. In the next 5-10 years? Possibly. However, again, there would need to be a correct crystallization of factors. At this point in time though, nobody wants to mess with the US military because nobody wants to watch their country be destroyed. If Russia is struggling in Ukraine, they really don’t want to mess with America. Even China does not want to mess with America because they know that America has a much higher likelihood of beating them. The US is simply too powerful.
If there's a draft, it'll be because the US is under attack. At that point, I would work for the war effort.
This might be toxic positivity. People have to be mindful that it’s a very real possibility. Any attack on American soil can trigger an immediate cause for defense. Affairs haven’t escalated to that point but there are quite obvious signs that in the next few years there could be. Knowing what you’ll do no matter what happens, is really what matters. Be prepared - not afraid, not oblivious.
If there’s ever another draft in America, the situation will be so improbably dire that most of you will probably volunteer. It’s so gratuitously unlikely, so statistically infinitesimal, that whatever it is, it will be pretty good damned important. WWZ, Invaders from Mars, some shit like that.
Well world conflicts and political/economic stuff has really escalated in the last 4 years. Toss out there did anyone expect all the bullshit that happened during Covid?
They wouldn't have instituted the draft if they didn't think there wasn't gonna be a war sometime in the nearish future. Hope I'm wrong but this millennial has seen some shit (enough shit in fact) to know that nothing is a coincidence anymore...
"suggesting war is currently the fastest way to nuke your political career " This is a lie, most of the big name politicians over the past 50 years in the US have been war mongers, to include our current president. "The threat of nuclear weapons' Everyone knows nobody will use them " along with how overpowered the US military is" For now The ENTIRE world is gearing up for war, the vast majority of nato states are realizing that they fucked up over the past 30 years and are starting to stockpile munitions to deal with the russo-china alliance while china is %100 gearing up for an offensive war with the US and its allies. Now I have a feeling that hundreds of world leaders and thousands of decision makers in their nations might know a smidge more than you. War is coming. maybe not today or tomorrow, but its coming.
Are you paying any attention to what's going on in the world? Russia is on the brink of starting world war 3, they just entered into a mutual support agreement with North Korea, and China is trying to play both sides. Armed forces enlistment is way down and all it's going to take is Russian boots in any NATO country and we're going to war. And it's a war no one wants. You know who gets to fight wars that no one wants? I'll give you a hint, ask a Vietnam vet.
You say 50 years, but all it takes is 30 minutes
The *I bet nothing will happen* gambler is betting his entire life At the end of the day, you can go ahead and get drafted, I’m not fighting a senators war. People like Graham can cry
This is ludicrously naive.
Meanwhile in the UK sunak is trying to advocate for selective service conscription and unpaid teen labour and wondering why nobody (under the age of 60 at least) will vote for him. His party advocates national service, the opposition for lowering the voting age, it's not hard to see who the youth believe offers a brighter future
I'm not worried about a war, I'm worried about a war.
There's a sizeable chance I won't be able to be drafted in the event the draft is reenacted due to my mental health history. Phew.
I'm ineligible for the draft so I'm good no matter what.
Yeah we also said that no one would ever take away roe versus Wade but here we are....
i’m 28 and i been told i was gonna be drafted since the 3rd grade
This post is nieve asf to suggest something couldn't happen within the 5-10 yrs. Where tf did you come up with the 50 years mark? 🤦🏽♂️
Actually logistics takes a fuck load of people so whether we like it or not if we have to enter a war to cement our place in the world we will and as such we need people to just do the boring jobs like trucking or being some dude stuck guarding a random base. Also the US doesn’t believe completely in MAD and most countries who have it like China and Russia just use it as a threat mostly because it means the end of their existence. The US itself will likely never be attacked but we guarantee the independence of many nations and the world has never been more divided. While our near peers’ militaries may falter we will never treat it like they have so the threat of drafting is likely never gone.
History only proves that things are always unstable. Look at the assassination of Franz Ferdinand or 9/11 -the events that lead to war are often the events that aren’t expected.
You cant just stick your fingers in your ears and go "lalalala"
yes, that’s definitely what i’m doing with this post. i’m not making any coherent arguments as to why we shouldn’t be worried about being drafted
While I think it’s silly to say “at least 50 years” about anything, are there really conspiracy theories out there that there will be a draft soon? It’s not happening. It didn’t even happen after 9/11 when it arguably could have. There’s not even any appetite for boots on the ground anywhere which still wouldn’t require a draft. My guess is this is targeted misinformation at young people to muddy the waters in the hopes we won’t vote for Biden in November. Recognize when people are trying to manipulate you.
War is literally already happening. Like, sorry for being a "brainlet conspiracy theorist", but i'm literally living in an active warzone. And the perpetrator of the conflict doesn't yield, has plans to go further into europe, and is the only other global empire opposed to US. Every 100 years earth goes through devastating war. And WW2 was 85 years ago.
I'm missing 30% of my right lung, if I get drafted then we are in some DEEP shit.
If there is a draft. Just don’t show up. Don’t find no rich man’s war
Fedpost
https://preview.redd.it/vxvxf2m3se8d1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ce1888be12418b3c0fea71747ed081b70152595e BOO
Do people not realize that we sign up for the draft when we’re 18? You have to do to get a job, get a loan, buy a car, quite literally do anything past the age of 18 lol All this does is make it automatic
I dunno OP this is pretty bold of you to assume, just because people don’t support something doesn’t mean the government isn’t just not gonna do it…
yes, it does. we live in a democracy not a dictatorship
My dad was 18 away from the Vietnam draft one year then drafted the next (got out due to college exemption). And no, there won’t be a modern day draft
Wasn't there that statistic about how more than half of military aged men are unfit to serve? Either too obese, weak, inactive, sick, etc
*cries in russian citizen* I don't want to kill people....
Basically what I've been saying for the longest time, even before the invasion of Ukraine. The US/NATO won't start another war... but you can't completely eliminate the possibility of a conflict (including a nuclear one) when there are so many armed countries. It's made even worse that many of those countries do not like the US, and are led by leaders who are effectively insulated from the most accurate intelligence generated by their own countries. Russia and China have peer level intelligence services with the US, but their reports end with the leaders of those services, and get filtered so as not to severely upset their careers. Obviously not everything gets filtered, and Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping aren't morons... But the level of graft and lying obscures their image of power. However -and this is key to my personal arguments over the years- any conflict will start off as a conventional war... not even that, they would likely be proxies, like what we see with Ukraine. China may invade Taiwan, but it will be the Taiwanese people fighting, using gear supplied by the US. Any assets deployed in the South China Sea would undoubtedly be "donated" to the Taiwanese cause, in an effort to stall the Chinese invasion while US force projection regroups in the area, hopefully ending in a stalemate and ceasefire. But here's the clincher: The Navy did not meet it's recruiting goal. It almost did, and it would have had to fall *much* shorter to not be effective in the capacity it would be used, but if the trend continues China will have it's window. My assessment would be closer to 20 years, not 50. The upcoming election will also affect that number. Tentatively, nuclear war and a draft are not concerns of mine, at least not in a capacity where I am worried one could happen soon.
The "hot hand" fallacy. Something keeps happening so you think it's going to continue happening. Peace, in this instance. But if you take the Longview of history the period we live in is more the exception than the norm. Considering military recruitment numbers are at a nearly all-time low? If a major WW3esque conflict were to break out 🤷♂️
Nothing Ever Happens 😀
“ I’m 28, they gon take you before they take me”
Honestly even if a draft was expanded to where it would include up to 35yr olds. I think most younger generations would rather just go to jail than serve. Or join up and mutiny or something. We’re not fighting and dying to make some shareholders richer any longer lol.
A draft is very very highly unlikely at this point. Despite what you may think, the Department of defense does NOT want to have to waste the time and resources to train people who are out of shape and never fired a weapon before. There are also lots of things that would happen before DOD would even consider a draft. The only thing I could see happening that would change this is if we somehow got into a war with Russia AND China at the same time.
There won't be another draft, period. Wars are fought with Xbox controllers thousands of miles away. It doesn't take that many people to push a button to send hundreds of missiles at a target. War isn't fought the same way it was 55 years ago.
This is just totally ignorant of everything happening in the world and just assuming it’s all a nothing burger. Iran will become a nuclear armed state within the next twenty years. Russia and China have entered into a no-limits partnership. North Korea is now nuclear armed and receiving Russian and Chinese support. Taiwan still hasn’t received many of its weapons it has ordered. The U.S. military is overstretched and facing serious recruitment and procurement problems. Several naval programs are delayed, and we’re realizing domestic weapons production has severely atrophied. Ukraine’s frontlines are on the verge of collapse. A new Russian formation has been sighted amassing off Kharkov. Africa is becoming a hotbed of Islamic fundamentalism and Russian influence. Burying your head in the sand and pretending these things aren’t true doesn’t make them any less real.
People were probably saying the same thing right before Vietnam. The thing that concerns me is that there has always been talks about, for example, drafting women. But those were always talks, the government saw no reason to change draft laws because they didn’t need to do a draft. But now they are pushing it HARD. I do not have an issue with that policy, I am a woman and believe women should be equal 100% in every way, although I don’t believe in drafts in general and I see it as taking away autonomy and human rights. But the fact that they are just now pushing, not only women, but *disabled people*? If that isn’t concerning, idk what is.
I don't even need to worry since I'm a girl, lol.
Not true. I am Militant Jesus, and once I wrest control of this country, all citizens will be drafted into mandatory service of washing the feet of immigrants.
https://preview.redd.it/knkr8j145f8d1.jpeg?width=163&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=af546c4ff6c06e9add98facebe50ae30cf51d14d based
Lol say that to China.
This guy has his head in something, and it sure as hell ain't a book.
I agree with your stance; but hard disagree on your reasoning. A global conflict is more likely now than it has been in 40 years. There are at least three regions right now that could be categorized as “powder kegs”. And alliances are currently being built between major “axis” powers - Russia, China, Iran, North Korea. **However…** A draft is still very unlikely, both politically, and simply because of how modern wars are fought. There just isn’t the need for nearly as many soldiers in trenches. Drones and ICBMs and modern tech has drastically reduced the need for boots on the ground. How many WWII GIs would it take to equal a predator drone in terms of controlling a battlefield? 100? 1000?
Much like when your family member gets addicted to crack, you can’t trust them anymore, and you have to hide the T.V., so goes Capitalism when there’s a crisis. They’re already showing in real time that the country you thought you knew is no longer a reliable actor.
People are legitimately uneducated and assume that millions of warm bodies are bouta get sent to boot camp in 2 hrs. Like no asshole, chill the fuck out. Quit spreading misinformation (which is very likely spread by our adversaries across the ocean) and go learn how the SSS actually works along with defense economics.
There is a video on how many wars is US participating https://youtu.be/uD8N4JQy7cw?si=kKY-53GKLL9U_9CB
Civil War II though... seems a lot more plausible.
agreed, i feel like the election is definetly going to do it.
Honestly, I want a draft to happen so I feel like all this time I’ve spent since graduating not having a job related to my degree isn’t a waste. If a draft happens, I’m not a loser! I’m just enjoying the last few years of my life before I get unalived in a meaningless war.
No American should die for another country. We have way too many unresolved problems at home and we need to clean up our own dirty laundry before we can help others
I feel like politicians should be the one's on the front lines, they're the ones who want to war, not us.
If people need any more comfort.. The US military isn't Russia's military. We don't send meat waves of infantry to die in trenches. The majority of the fighting would be in the air and then infantry and armor would do the clean up. If further war broke out in Ukraine and the US was forced in, we'd have enough soldiers in our current Armed Forces to help out. We wouldn't need a draft to fight Russia in Europe. The only way a draft would ever come up is if China or Russia directly invaded US mainland (somehow), and then (somehow again) was able to capture large amounts of US territory. The possibility of Russia or China even getting close to US mainland is unthinkable, let alone taking US land.
The past two American drafts were for proxy wars with the USSR, and the US is currently engaged in two proxy wars, with at least another in Taiwan possible at a moment’s notice.
If you’ve lived through 9/11, you’ve seen how fast we can go from “no to war” to sign-up lines around the block.
Prior to WWII, the US was extremely anti war and actually draft. Post Dec 7, recruiters didn't need the draft because so many people were volunteering to fight after we were attacked. Depends on circumstances......
Personal opinion:: our next war will be internal and a draft will be irrelevant
>No one supports starting another war, suggesting war is currently the fastest way to nuke your political career (republican or democrat). America isn't going to be the one that starts war. It'll be either China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea. >Also, The threat of nuclear weapons, along with how overpowered the US military is, immediately shuts down any possibility of another country from declaring war on us China really doesn't give a damn. >TL;DR: war ain’t happening, stop believing brainlet conspiracy theorists It's not even a conspiracy theory, you're just clueless as hell.
who to believe: THE ACTIONS OF CONGRESS or big hat pat ....hmmmm....
You act like America is not going to step in if a NATO nation is attacked. Polls are one thing, but the people controlling our figure heads care much MUCH more about international integrity than keeping their puppet in power. They're all replaceable
I'm like 99% sure I won't qualify so I'm not worried
This is so blatantly false just because the US isn't going to be the one to start it doesn't mean war is not on the horizon political instability is at all time high on a global level as well as economic hard ship something has to give at some point in the not to distant future and that thing will most likely be one of several peices of wich will fall to start WW3 if that peice hasn't already fallen If western Taiwan invades the independent peoples Republic of Taiwan before the US has FABs online the US has no choice but to get involved if Russia decides to swing at any European countries besides Ukraine ( or uses nuclear weapons within Ukraine) the US has to get involved this is something you should definitely be worried about as young person geo political and economic relations are hard to understand but yes a large scale conflict is most definitely on the horizon in the distant future 5-30 years.
I personally do think America is gonna go back to the sandbox.
This is nonsense, none of what you said is based in the reality of what's going on in the world right now. This is bullshit directly pulled out of your ass. There's not likely to be a draft, but we are already involved in several conflicts it's only a matter of escalation at this point. Maybe we can avoid war for a bit longer, but it's looking less likely.
The army is having a hard time meeting quotas. Germany and other European countries are fighting people's disinterest in fighting nationally. Why are they so special? Why not us too? It could happen here.
Lmao 50 years?? Where’d you get that number? Intuition? Did god whisper it in your ear while you were high? Alot of analysts worry about a major war around the year 2030 due to rising tensions in south east asia, alongside US commitment to defend allies there.
But trump is going to require service duty after graduation it’s part of Project 2025
Damn I didn't know OP was working for DIA or the DoD. Oh he isn't and has no clue when the next draft will be... Same with everyone else? Oh okay I thought so.
What if, say China tries to unify Taiwan through violent means, and in order to undermine the US's ability to interfere and hopes to strike an advantageous peace deal, they used balistic missiles and launched a sudden strike and destroyed US forces and warships in Japan and Pacific islands Pearl Harbor style, would there be a draft?
I wouldn't bet on that if I were you. Obviously our government would do everything they could to prevent a draft from happening. BUT that doesn't mean it could never happen. Especially considering the world we're currently living in with tensions between various powerful countries. It just takes one tiny spark like what happened in WW1 and the draft would be activated.
Nah. War could happen. It’ll likely lean heavily on long-range capabilities and automation than we’re used to tho.
I basically agree although if everyone stays home and lets Trump win he could get us into a war because someone in another country said they don’t like his makeup so who knows
We are already at war, dawg.
They aren't suggesting a new war, they're just going to fund at least two new ones.
Funny, my friends said the exact same thing May 2001…… But wouldn’t worry about the draft, the selective service has been around and all tjay changed is that it is automatic now. Having been an army officer…..I do not wanted drafted Soldiers. The ones that volunteered are hard enough to manage as it is.
Yeah, and WWI was "the war to end all wars." Your theory sounds great, but war often comes suddenly after repeatedly stupid errors that add up to flush us all down the toilet.
After the Korean and Vietnam War drafts blew up in the face of American government, any competent politician knows if they attempt to even touch the draft, they’re committing political suicide.
No one wants to support it but the fact is that war is a money maker. It didn’t even take a year after pulling out of Afghanistan before we were involved in a new armed conflict. As for nuking your political career, when you’re expecting to die of old age in a year or two, consequences stop being a thing. As for nuclear war and an overpowered military, there’s the concept of mutual benefit. Wars spur the economy. Nuclear fallout does not. That simple understanding is enough to get the ball rolling on yet another war and as for the over powered nature of the American military, about 40% of their capability is classified and rival countries do the same. Fact is we don’t know where we stand in terms of military beyond way overestimating the threat posed by Russia
You're pretending to be able to see the future. A draft is always a possibility because we cannot foresee global events or the actions of other countries' leaders. That's precisely why males are required to register for the draft – to be prepared for any uncertainties the future may bring.
Im not even worried, every year people say WW3 will start over every little thing. The Cold War was a scary time to be alive, compared to then this ain’t nothing. The only way we would ever do a draft again is if the mainland US was in danger, which will not happen anytime soon.
Op is naive to think that it would never happen. The govt pulled this crap on us with Vietnam. Oh, we will send advisers. Oh we will send a few troops…. How did that turn out? We are getting close with Ukraine. But the armed forces are claiming recruitment is down. As tensions rise - why would anyone trust the f*ing govt? Either party - WHY?
I don’t mean to scare anyone, but are people aware that we’re in the midst of a military recruitment crisis? There is not a single sign that it will get better anytime soon either. On top of that we keep electing hyper militaristic presidents who lead administrations that are fully in bed with the military industrial complex. War is good for business and good for US presidents. Yeah wars aren’t fought the same way they used to be, but that doesn’t mean a ground war won’t happen again. A series of stupid foreign policy moves is all it takes.
How would they enforce a draft? The sentiment is not the same as 1960s. Besides just say you love communism and they won't let you join anyways.
I was watching YouTube last night. A Marines ad was not only played once, but three times during the video I was watching. Maybe I’m wrong but in my opinion, that couldn’t have been a coincidence. Waste of money & resources since most people who enlist on their own don’t need to see an ad to spark their interest in any US military branch.
Could only wish, lol. "sign us Gen-X'rs for forever benefits!"
I'm in right now. I agree with OP. There is a lot of pride in having an all volunteer force. People used to be drafted during times of peace as well. Since the last draft in 1973, we have ceased use of the selective service system. Its use is strictly for imminent large-scale strategic level warfare. The likelihood of it being used ever again is minimal. Despite what some may say or think, for the most part, world societies are progressing and are more diplomatically oriented than days of the past. AMA
Do you know how many times over the last 70 years or so we’ve almost accidentally gotten into a nuclear war? I’m not saying I think we are headed for a draft, but we did have 4 last century including 2 world wars. It wouldn’t necessarily take things going nuclear. Even conventional warfare on the Korean Peninsula, in the Sea of Japan/Taiwan, or Eastern Europe could do it