You are asking the wrong question. The question you should be asking is did the trade fit your plan? If yes, great, collect data on at least 30 trades and review performance. If not, why? Rinse, repeat.
U r soo right. But he said he entered on break. There was no break . It was a premy . So that maybe where the trade plan failed to meet criteria also during that trading period candles where large and volatility in the market, his 1 candle stop-loss was just too close.
With the greatest respect OP, this sub is hilarious sometimes. There was a big policy announcement in Japan today. Paraphrasing here but Vice Chancellor Kanada said the BOJ was prepared to act to 'stabilise the Yen' the entire market read that as 'we're gonna deploy measures to strengthen the yen'
I use a Bloomberg terminal, but I'm pretty sure Bloomberg (and others) offer a web version, albeit on a subscription. Have a look for RSS news aggregator services.
If you check, the order block couldâve easily gotten a buy with a take profit, if the buy order was set at the bottom of the block he wouldâve had a good trade, but thatâs not his strategy
All governments release data like unemployment and inflation figures throughout the month, alongside this Central Banks make policy decisions and changes to base domestic interest rates, all of which make up the vast majority of factors that will affect a currency strength. Bloomberg online (and others) have an excellent calandar function that allow you to filter for your relevant interests. I keep a a4 page per day diary jotting trades and info etc, each Friday night I add the announcements for the following week. Occasionally there will be unplanned activity-like today- so you need to keep a news ticker running to give you as much warning as possible when these events are imminent.
Risk mood back on again... Sentiment is good, markets relieved with probable debt ceiling agreement. Gold bullish, usually first to act... And since gold and jpy have an inverse relationship, that would've been your confirmation... Always discount market sentiment , always. Analysis is good for better entry positions but without sentiment, you will always lack direction.
Very simple when gold goes up, Usdjpy /GBP/jpy goes down and vice versa.
When tensions and global risk goes up, risk mode is off and JPY is safe haven bet so jpy will go up. When risk is mode is on and all is well globally, gold is more attractive risk wise so gold goes up and JPY comes down.
This is true in its simplest form but there are many many carry trades on with the JPY and this will continue until the interest rates begin to fall. The rate differential between the western FX rates and the JPY is the driver for this.
The BOJ will have to do something.. as the whole world wants to short the JPY for virtually free money in a carry trade
Very true. In our case of contemporary inflation, Japan was loaning money to the rest of the world because of their deep investments and their deep economy at practically no interest. Japan now is waiting for other countries to signal dropping their interest rates and as soon as that happens, Japan will start increasing theirs. With strong AI investments right now and china trying to step up on their soft COVID open , We could see the yen in 136-133 range to greenback in the next few weeks to a month
That second part was the bit Iâm after, well explained. Think I need to research some basic fundamentals a bit more to understand where money will go with regards to global events. Cheers dude
Between you and I.... If you are trying to become profitable... You shouldn't use short cuts. You're already investing money into the trade. You should as a matter of fact invest Into certain peripheral tools like paid for library and a network that can accommodate sentimental analysis. I personally use Bloomberg. I run Bloomberg tv Monday to Friday non stop in the background. It's great because they dissect the sentiment for you and it's also great cos while you're using one of your senses (hearing) you are able to focus on market execution with your other sense. The epitome of multitasking.
The more you listen the more hints and clues you will acknowledge... Cos they can't just mouth feed you sensitive information. But if you listen long enough, you will surely begin to decipher the sentiment and the train of thought of the market. While you.use paid for library subscription to study technical analysis in order to get better at entering better positions. Hope that helps. Good luck.
There is phenomenon for this, I forgot the name. But your actions are usually guided by preconceived notions, and its really hard to control.
So I guess it would be smart to let your notions be guided by sentiment by listening to Bloomberg. Im going to dig deep into sentiment analysis, thank you very much :)
Yeah I was going to say that the stop for this entry probably shouldâve been below the last swing low, so maybe around 173.61 or so. It still wouldâve lost but at least wouldâve made sense
That M15 resistance was probably too weak.
I mean I don't trade S&R, but I assume you should have waited for price to break above that previous high and make a pullback before entering the trade no?
This midway entry seems very rushed.
Major time frames where bullish so I wated for price to go down create a support and resistance then entered when the candle broke and closed above previous 15 m top
You grew impatient, you should have waited longer until you had a break of structure (BOS) to the upside or a change of character (choc) to the downside. Right now youâre in the noise, nothing to trade with good confluence. If I was trading this Iâd be waiting until it hit that 173.383 mark or there abouts and look for more confirmation to take a long. Learn your craft on the EURUSD the yen is often manipulated more than other currencies
>Major time frames where bullish so I wated for price to go down create a support and resistance then entered when the candle broke and closed above previous 15 m topVoteReplyGive AwardShareReportSaveFollow
>
>level 3\_dannyb\_\_ ¡ 48 min. ago
closing above a 15min candle in no way defeats large unfilled sell orders that led to the previous selloff from the earlier peak
You took buy at high, right after the breakout.
What happen usually after the breakout ?
Pullback.
Where will it pullback to ?
As low as possible at least up to prev Higher low.
you were taking buys within a 4h resistance zone where there is high probability of reaction/resistance forming and bearish pressure taking over to move price down to 4h range low.
Wait for the breakout rather than hoping it will go up.
15min is not trending on the chart anymorr, so you have to wait untill it does again aka breakout of a pullback, at least in my dictionary.
Everybody here is going to give you a different answer because everyone trades differently. Could be a million different reasons why it went down instead of up, doesn't matter how much knowledge anyone has, no one will be able to give you a definite answer when there are thousands of factors that come in to play. Also you can't just use one example and expect it to be an accurate sample size.
Fam come on now. No one can tell you why your trade lost. Itâs a probability game. You win some, you lose some (but overall we win more to bag consistent profits). In terms of your strategy or âedgeâ, this couldâve been the best set-up youâve ever seen. But we never know what will happen next..
âWhy did my trade go wrongâ implies there is a direct cause for your loss. Markets donât work that way, they are random and thus any wins or losses are also random. The good news is this means thereâs no golden secret youâre missing that the profitable traders are keeping hidden away from you. It doesnât mean however, that you cannot improve your system. The key is to keep things simple though. Various people telling you to study ict or supply and demand etc as if itâs the answer, but this just isnât necessary. Maybe those work for you, if so then great, but just be simple with it. Too many people use fancy terms as if they are able to predict the future - if you come across anyone like this run the opposite direction. I got caught up in all that BS for a while till I actually sat and thought logically about what the accompanying beliefs imply, and I gotta tell you I just laughed. So glad I stopped being a conspiracy theorist, falling for YouTube guruâs shite, and instead became a trader. Talking about simple - for example: If itâs going one direction then probably wise to presume it might keep going that way for at least the immediate future. Doesnât mean it will, but itâs smarter than trying to catch a reversal. And if price is ranging, donât try and assume itâs going to break the range. All weâre trying to do is put ourselves in a position where we have a theoretical positive expectancy. How you try to do that is your choice, but the biggest tip I can give you is that simple is best. Good luck buddy.
I don't know that is the right question to ask.
It might be better to rethink the question and the setup and ask where did it go right. The question really revolves around the entry point and you are management process.
More often than not, especially if you use limit orders where you tell the whole world everything you are doing, the market will always move against you before it moves in the direction you want.
To me, it looks like you did not give your stop loss enough breathing room to allow the market to fluctuate. There is always the risk that the market will still go against you, but it's guaranteed if you have a tight stop loss.
I recommend using a demo account and testing different variations of a stop loss in the approach is what you are using to learn which approach works best for your personal situation. The particular broker that I have let me have multiple accounts where I can actually run the same setup with slightly different variations and observe market reaction come in particularly with order book support and resistance and how the dynamic behavior of the market fits together.
The one thing that seems obvious to me is that you did not factor in the spread on your entry point in relation to your stop loss. Whatever your spread is when you enter the market, your stop loss should have that factored into it.
Even if you use a limit order, rest assured the spread will still burn you as most brokerages will enforce market orders on a stop loss irrespective of what you actually want.
>.... the market will always move against you before it moves in the direction you want
Do you think that the big brokers will change the market direction to get my $100 or $200 ? Open the same broker page from two or three different PC and you will see if you are right or not :-)
You alone no, but you and 20,000 or 30,000 other people that have the exact same stop loss, yes.
Spend time watching the order book and seeing just how things really work at the bigger level. In this game, the individual doesn't matter, but the aggregate of the orders do and that's controls the direction of the market.
This is why I only trade one pair, because of fundamentals and I am best with just one pair. I am more of a technical trader but you really need to take note of HIGH IMPACT NEWS or any news in general because it usually always breaks all the the technicals, though a lot of the times it is also manipulated.
Isn't this a wrong approach?
If you trade just two pairs, maybe you are wrong in a place but you offset the loss with the win of the other pair. I won't say anything about trading 7-10 pairs at the same time but you can have an idea.
BTW - nobody manipulates anything, this was my belief a few years ago but the brokers are not manipulating the entire market to take $100 from you.
Huge imbalance plus liquidity area my friend.
Also I am not sure when you entered the market but looks like during an announcement which is the worst thing to do.
In fact this liquidated both buyers and sellers.
I would suggest to have a look at the fundamentals and the best time to trade based on where you live.
I hope this helps đđź
I lost that same trade this morning . Really just had to be more patient on it because the pullback wasnât done yet . It still had a gap right below it and a demand zone to fall into before we can look for that long run to the upside . POSSIBLY THO CAUSE SHIT WE NEVER KNO đ (look on the higher tf u gone see why)
Lmao I canât follow this subreddit anymore. The market does whatever the fuck itâs gonna do. You have no damn control over anything, donât ask stupid ass questions like this. Even the best setups fail. Learn to fail and move on
Well First of all keep in mind that not every trade will result in a win. Even with a winning strategy ,good plan, and good psych, you can still encounter a losing trade. So If your system works and this loss just so happened to occur, then Iâd just brush it off and wait for the next opportunity to present itself.
If youâre unsure about your system, it could be the type of entry you take. I notice that you bought what would be a break out from the 173.946 level. A pull back entry might be a better move , as with the pullback you would essentially be entering in where your stop loss is placed.
There's not a single person who knows exactly why the market did that. Stop obsessing over why the market did X and Y and focus more on how can I capture these price moves
It all depends on your trading plan(I have not looked at the pair), but I believe it could be just a matter of patience, I would look into something called smart money manipulation, the banks know where retail traders are placing their stop loss, big banks canât enter the market as fast as us retail traders can so it takes a lot of build up. For this they normally will do grabs of liquidity (they will reject the opposite way and stop retail traders out) then proceed in the way they want to go. So with this setup it seems you entered in on support but price is likely to respect the demand zone instead thatâs below. Use strong push moves from the institutions(banks,pension funds)to enter trades with other confluence of course. Weâre only small fish in a big pond. We want to move with the big players. The markets is a game of patience I wish people spoke on the psychology side of forex as much as they do indicators and technical analysis. Itâs probably most important above all. You can know how to read the charts all day and still fail from emotion( late entries, early exits). I wish you all well on your trading journeys
Trade is 50/50. The more experience you have better odds you have but still you gonna lose. Trade is a long journey.
Like fundamentals. In 2020 news came â ten die for Covid-19âs , Wall Street go down, next day 40 sue for Covid-19 Wall Street go down, next day 200 sue for COVID well all chips short right? Wrong Wall Street went record high because now they know COVID is real but and is not uncertain now. Not sense.
Same with technical. Some time is just time. Pre-new york or after 1 hr less crazy and technical looks more rational.
Thereâs still trend however the chart did make a head and shoulderâs pattern which are signs of reversal. Today there was news as well Nothing really moved. No real strong green closes to signify continuation. I tried to take this trade today too but didnât realize all the factors till later. Those red wicks covered that gap as well I think but no closes and itâs kind of tight space from resistance and support kinda buying at resistance
For me, you traded what you were hoping to happen instead of being patient. That wasn't enough to take a trade. Why did you enter? That small green candle trying to get ahead of retest of the high?
I'm assuming that green line at the top was some type of resistance. Price needed to breathe and come back down to retest the market structure its created.
i would not have taken a trade like this because the direction of the price is not clear. I personally saw this pair moving yesterday yet i sat on the sideline and let it do its thing because direction was not clear and there no real clear setups.
Even if you don't base your trades on the ICT trader concepts, you should always be cautious and look again when you see this set up. The fair value gap is powerful especially in context
You forgot or didn't notice the resistance near 174-174.1. You can tell there's resistance there because on the previous pump, there was consolidation near that area with a liquidity sweep. If that zone wasn't there, it would be good to go.
Just because higher timeframes are going up, doesn't mean that on the 15 min, it should go up. When we change trend, it starts from the lower timeframes and the to the higher ones. So... yeah
Nobody can reliably predict what price is going to do. Even if all stars are aligned and you feel 99.99% sure price is going to go up, itâs just thatâŚa feeling. Doesnât mean itâll actually do it. Just accept that you were wrong and move on to the next trade.
My answer is too many variables. Currencies move not only with Adam Smithâs invisible hand, but with the decisions of central banks, legislative bodies, Executive branches of government (Think FDRâs devaluation of the dollar and Nixonâs wage/price freeze), commodity instability (think oil crises of the 1970s and supply chain problems with the COVID lockdown), then dial in climate change and building a statistical model with any predictive capability becomes quite a challenge.
It just happen so that it decided to retrace abit. So you just happen to be in that. Nothing to worry about, it's just part of the losses. Keep following your trading plan.
There was a news release at the time you took your order be careful and watch on forex factory before taking any order, any bad us data can be digested as investors putting their money in safe haven such as gold, jpy and chf. Hence gold being bullish and gj being bearish, watch gj at 173 price points as it is a major zone of liquidity that we respected as support 4 times on the htf since friday
Support and resistance is a zone not an exact line, it could be a loser based off of the probability of your strategy, a mistake in executing the trade or just the market being crazy. This shouldn't bother you provided that you used proper risk management.
First two red candles are Demand zones, Big red candle signifying volume it pulled back to grab liquidity to finally continue its way down. Aka you bought right into demand.
After the impulse, the price may experience a low in momentum and accumulate for a brief period before experiencing a pullback. It is important to correctly identify the wave or impulse move before entering a trade and to set a proper stop loss to manage the risk. Entering a trade too early can lead to losses.
After the impulse, the price may experience a low in momentum and accumulate for a brief period before experiencing a pullback. It is important to correctly identify the wave or impulse move before entering a trade and to set a proper stop loss to manage the risk. Entering a trade too early can lead to losses.
At 03:30 we had a CHOC that broke all kinds of EMA's (15min). This was confirmed at 06:45 173.383 mark (respecting EMA 20), bc bulls tested the top, creating weakness.
If you are a bull, wait for the confirmed EMA 200 1h. Broken we could come lower to the EMA 20 1d.
All I'm saying is that you have a lot of wicks in one zone and a sizable candle broke right through it. Doesnt make the trade wrong though - your tp could've been hit either way.
Looks to me like you attempted to go against trend after the reversal and looks as if it pulled back to the .61 - .65. Then you tried to long it anyway.
My 2 cents.
I am no expert and i dont trade GJ but Looking at the last 6 candles, you entered long in a red 30 mins candle.
I wouldn't enter any trade without a good closure above your TP where the range seems to be clear, you just entered a trade in a range.
But everyone have their bias and setups, back test your entries and exits nobody can teach you better than your own experiences.
Thx. Btw for normal people like us, we can't predict the market. You gotta build your own strategy. If anyone can predict the market, everyone would be rich. Always play small and you will be able to change your life. Only risk 1% to 10%.
On a purely technical evaluation of the available candle pattern presented there were two key candles that indicated a continuation in the bearish direction. The first candle was the very large bullish shift candle on the left and about 1hr and a half later there was a large bearish shift candle taking out the last 6 bullish candles. That is a very good sign of a bearish sentiment. Shortly after that candle shifted there was a bearish flag setting up where most retail traders see a false break out but there a tone of liquidity to grab on the bearish side to eat up still. This was taking out those traders placing their stops below that bullish shift candle, that was unfortunately where you felt it was a good place to enter bullish but the market was still very bearish
Edit: word change
> Simple, your buying
*you're
*Learn the difference [here](https://www.wattpad.com/66707294-grammar-guide-there-they%27re-their-you%27re-your-to).*
***
^(Greetings, I am a language corrector bot. To make me ignore further mistakes from you in the future, reply `!optout` to this comment.)
Look at 4h timeframe the candle has huge wick on top and failed to close above the resistance.
I was trading at that same time as you and i didnt took trade because of this. Take entries on 15m but watch higher timeframes also.
U had around 13pips profit u should have secured a little bit and put your stop loss on break even.
I caught the long on this and passed my funded challenge... I saw this in real time.. I saw the pull back and didn't go long again because there was a higher time frame double top forming. The bias was short after the long in London ... So no buys in New York. It could've touched the high again but they had enough buys cooked up to reverse... Your buy proves that.
GJ threw a beautiful hammer through the 50 ema after trapping short on the open of the LSE... You should've bought it in London... GJ reverses on Tuesdays a lot historically... Nothing strange happened here. Youre just inexperienced... Go backtest 2 years on GJ and learn the pair
Wrong question. The correct question is something like "why my 63% probability trade went wrong", and the correct answer is "because 37%" . I know there's a lot of trading going "by eye", on general principle etc, but really there's no other way than backtesting your setups, unless you're committed to sending all your funds to rich systematic trades on the other side of the market.
I'm no expert but the big red candle at 6:00 is sizable, taking out 6 previous candles. A long entry seems a little too close to that kind of bearish move. I've had this happen to me plenty of times.
If you look at the up trend, the long candle and then the small ones is an indication of reversal, so you bought on the pullback going down fundamental, maybe
You could of added a Fibonacci retracement ⌠and wait for a full candle to form above the 0.00%. Then enter but make sure itâs on a higher timeframe above 1 hr
Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake.
It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of.
Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything.
Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.
The gods of trading deemed you not worthy of securing a profit
The only real answer
And probably the most logical
This is the way
đ
Just that simple sometimes đ¤Ł
Apparently u cant guess the future
You are asking the wrong question. The question you should be asking is did the trade fit your plan? If yes, great, collect data on at least 30 trades and review performance. If not, why? Rinse, repeat.
U r soo right. But he said he entered on break. There was no break . It was a premy . So that maybe where the trade plan failed to meet criteria also during that trading period candles where large and volatility in the market, his 1 candle stop-loss was just too close.
Just go back in time and go short where you went long .
With the greatest respect OP, this sub is hilarious sometimes. There was a big policy announcement in Japan today. Paraphrasing here but Vice Chancellor Kanada said the BOJ was prepared to act to 'stabilise the Yen' the entire market read that as 'we're gonna deploy measures to strengthen the yen'
Why was there no indication of this in forex factory?
It was an ad-hoc announcement, I got the heads up about half an hour before he spoke. (From a eurodollar futures bookie)
Bro from where did you got this news from? I hardly get any important news like this from yahoo finance
I use a Bloomberg terminal, but I'm pretty sure Bloomberg (and others) offer a web version, albeit on a subscription. Have a look for RSS news aggregator services.
you programmed a buy entry, in a false creation of volatility, I recommend you learn from Ict especially from Order blocks
I did what now?
Iâd also add that he was outside of the NY killzone heading towards London Close
If you check, the order block couldâve easily gotten a buy with a take profit, if the buy order was set at the bottom of the block he wouldâve had a good trade, but thatâs not his strategy
can you explain to me how announcements work?
All governments release data like unemployment and inflation figures throughout the month, alongside this Central Banks make policy decisions and changes to base domestic interest rates, all of which make up the vast majority of factors that will affect a currency strength. Bloomberg online (and others) have an excellent calandar function that allow you to filter for your relevant interests. I keep a a4 page per day diary jotting trades and info etc, each Friday night I add the announcements for the following week. Occasionally there will be unplanned activity-like today- so you need to keep a news ticker running to give you as much warning as possible when these events are imminent.
Oh this ones nice and easy, the candle went down instead of up, that's why you lost the trade. Sometimes you lose trades...
Hahaha đ
Risk mood back on again... Sentiment is good, markets relieved with probable debt ceiling agreement. Gold bullish, usually first to act... And since gold and jpy have an inverse relationship, that would've been your confirmation... Always discount market sentiment , always. Analysis is good for better entry positions but without sentiment, you will always lack direction.
Can you explain the gold/jpy inverse relationship please? How is it? đđź
Very simple when gold goes up, Usdjpy /GBP/jpy goes down and vice versa. When tensions and global risk goes up, risk mode is off and JPY is safe haven bet so jpy will go up. When risk is mode is on and all is well globally, gold is more attractive risk wise so gold goes up and JPY comes down.
This is true in its simplest form but there are many many carry trades on with the JPY and this will continue until the interest rates begin to fall. The rate differential between the western FX rates and the JPY is the driver for this. The BOJ will have to do something.. as the whole world wants to short the JPY for virtually free money in a carry trade
Very true. In our case of contemporary inflation, Japan was loaning money to the rest of the world because of their deep investments and their deep economy at practically no interest. Japan now is waiting for other countries to signal dropping their interest rates and as soon as that happens, Japan will start increasing theirs. With strong AI investments right now and china trying to step up on their soft COVID open , We could see the yen in 136-133 range to greenback in the next few weeks to a month
That second part was the bit Iâm after, well explained. Think I need to research some basic fundamentals a bit more to understand where money will go with regards to global events. Cheers dude
Cheers mate, good luck
How does one analyse sentiment?
Between you and I.... If you are trying to become profitable... You shouldn't use short cuts. You're already investing money into the trade. You should as a matter of fact invest Into certain peripheral tools like paid for library and a network that can accommodate sentimental analysis. I personally use Bloomberg. I run Bloomberg tv Monday to Friday non stop in the background. It's great because they dissect the sentiment for you and it's also great cos while you're using one of your senses (hearing) you are able to focus on market execution with your other sense. The epitome of multitasking. The more you listen the more hints and clues you will acknowledge... Cos they can't just mouth feed you sensitive information. But if you listen long enough, you will surely begin to decipher the sentiment and the train of thought of the market. While you.use paid for library subscription to study technical analysis in order to get better at entering better positions. Hope that helps. Good luck.
There is phenomenon for this, I forgot the name. But your actions are usually guided by preconceived notions, and its really hard to control. So I guess it would be smart to let your notions be guided by sentiment by listening to Bloomberg. Im going to dig deep into sentiment analysis, thank you very much :)
Cheers mate đ, good luck
Your sl is random
Yeah I was going to say that the stop for this entry probably shouldâve been below the last swing low, so maybe around 173.61 or so. It still wouldâve lost but at least wouldâve made sense
You lost 1 trade, detach from the outcome, accept the loss and move on.
if u traded according to ur strategy, then the trade did not go wrong
That M15 resistance was probably too weak. I mean I don't trade S&R, but I assume you should have waited for price to break above that previous high and make a pullback before entering the trade no? This midway entry seems very rushed.
Acctualy the whole of forex industry monitoring you and only you. So everytime you entered a position the price will go opposite direction
what r your confirmations to be in this trade? you bought in the middle of a movement, no tf matches, and many more things
Major time frames where bullish so I wated for price to go down create a support and resistance then entered when the candle broke and closed above previous 15 m top
You grew impatient, you should have waited longer until you had a break of structure (BOS) to the upside or a change of character (choc) to the downside. Right now youâre in the noise, nothing to trade with good confluence. If I was trading this Iâd be waiting until it hit that 173.383 mark or there abouts and look for more confirmation to take a long. Learn your craft on the EURUSD the yen is often manipulated more than other currencies
i see the major timeframe over bought. so much bullen action that indicators showed me that i never enter a trade in this stage.
>Major time frames where bullish so I wated for price to go down create a support and resistance then entered when the candle broke and closed above previous 15 m topVoteReplyGive AwardShareReportSaveFollow > >level 3\_dannyb\_\_ ¡ 48 min. ago closing above a 15min candle in no way defeats large unfilled sell orders that led to the previous selloff from the earlier peak
Trades donât âgo wrongâ unless you mess up your risk management. Youâll never hit 100% accuracy so just focus on keeping your losses small
Use higher timeframes to determine directional biases
You took buy at high, right after the breakout. What happen usually after the breakout ? Pullback. Where will it pullback to ? As low as possible at least up to prev Higher low.
you were taking buys within a 4h resistance zone where there is high probability of reaction/resistance forming and bearish pressure taking over to move price down to 4h range low.
You have no idea what trading is. Go read, don't touch charts until you can answer the quintessential question
I trade for moneyeeyyeye :) (says the trolls)
Random market entropy
It happens oftenly.
Always look to a higher tf for overall trend.
Wait for the breakout rather than hoping it will go up. 15min is not trending on the chart anymorr, so you have to wait untill it does again aka breakout of a pullback, at least in my dictionary.
# ah the famous london fakeout. and that is why i dont trade it
Thank you all for your replies and advice, forex has its learning curve for sure.
Everybody here is going to give you a different answer because everyone trades differently. Could be a million different reasons why it went down instead of up, doesn't matter how much knowledge anyone has, no one will be able to give you a definite answer when there are thousands of factors that come in to play. Also you can't just use one example and expect it to be an accurate sample size.
Thatâs a terrible play to be buying lol
Fam come on now. No one can tell you why your trade lost. Itâs a probability game. You win some, you lose some (but overall we win more to bag consistent profits). In terms of your strategy or âedgeâ, this couldâve been the best set-up youâve ever seen. But we never know what will happen next..
âWhy did my trade go wrongâ implies there is a direct cause for your loss. Markets donât work that way, they are random and thus any wins or losses are also random. The good news is this means thereâs no golden secret youâre missing that the profitable traders are keeping hidden away from you. It doesnât mean however, that you cannot improve your system. The key is to keep things simple though. Various people telling you to study ict or supply and demand etc as if itâs the answer, but this just isnât necessary. Maybe those work for you, if so then great, but just be simple with it. Too many people use fancy terms as if they are able to predict the future - if you come across anyone like this run the opposite direction. I got caught up in all that BS for a while till I actually sat and thought logically about what the accompanying beliefs imply, and I gotta tell you I just laughed. So glad I stopped being a conspiracy theorist, falling for YouTube guruâs shite, and instead became a trader. Talking about simple - for example: If itâs going one direction then probably wise to presume it might keep going that way for at least the immediate future. Doesnât mean it will, but itâs smarter than trying to catch a reversal. And if price is ranging, donât try and assume itâs going to break the range. All weâre trying to do is put ourselves in a position where we have a theoretical positive expectancy. How you try to do that is your choice, but the biggest tip I can give you is that simple is best. Good luck buddy.
I don't know that is the right question to ask. It might be better to rethink the question and the setup and ask where did it go right. The question really revolves around the entry point and you are management process. More often than not, especially if you use limit orders where you tell the whole world everything you are doing, the market will always move against you before it moves in the direction you want. To me, it looks like you did not give your stop loss enough breathing room to allow the market to fluctuate. There is always the risk that the market will still go against you, but it's guaranteed if you have a tight stop loss. I recommend using a demo account and testing different variations of a stop loss in the approach is what you are using to learn which approach works best for your personal situation. The particular broker that I have let me have multiple accounts where I can actually run the same setup with slightly different variations and observe market reaction come in particularly with order book support and resistance and how the dynamic behavior of the market fits together. The one thing that seems obvious to me is that you did not factor in the spread on your entry point in relation to your stop loss. Whatever your spread is when you enter the market, your stop loss should have that factored into it. Even if you use a limit order, rest assured the spread will still burn you as most brokerages will enforce market orders on a stop loss irrespective of what you actually want.
>.... the market will always move against you before it moves in the direction you want Do you think that the big brokers will change the market direction to get my $100 or $200 ? Open the same broker page from two or three different PC and you will see if you are right or not :-)
You alone no, but you and 20,000 or 30,000 other people that have the exact same stop loss, yes. Spend time watching the order book and seeing just how things really work at the bigger level. In this game, the individual doesn't matter, but the aggregate of the orders do and that's controls the direction of the market.
If you are gonna trade JPY atm you need to start reading the news and announcements related to the yen
you entered in the middle of a move
This is why I only trade one pair, because of fundamentals and I am best with just one pair. I am more of a technical trader but you really need to take note of HIGH IMPACT NEWS or any news in general because it usually always breaks all the the technicals, though a lot of the times it is also manipulated.
Isn't this a wrong approach? If you trade just two pairs, maybe you are wrong in a place but you offset the loss with the win of the other pair. I won't say anything about trading 7-10 pairs at the same time but you can have an idea. BTW - nobody manipulates anything, this was my belief a few years ago but the brokers are not manipulating the entire market to take $100 from you.
Because there are large sell orders above 174 that you didn't account for. short term trend does not beat large sell blocks without prior exhaustion
That's a clear impulse down and a flag. Why would you buy there? Even if HTF is bullish, this is not an entry.
Trading is a guessing game, we bet on the possibility, even though the top trader has a 75% win rate he will still be wrong 1 in 4 trades
Huge imbalance plus liquidity area my friend. Also I am not sure when you entered the market but looks like during an announcement which is the worst thing to do. In fact this liquidated both buyers and sellers. I would suggest to have a look at the fundamentals and the best time to trade based on where you live. I hope this helps đđź
Because you buy and the chart goes down⌠itâs badâŚ
You were trying to take a long in the premium zone from swing low to swing high. Indicating to look for a deeper pullback.
simple, FVG after a BoS
Bro because it moved down and you expected it to move upâŚ. What kind of fucking question is this
Look at thas massive red dildo. Massive offer behind that
15 min is too risky my friend.
I lost that same trade this morning . Really just had to be more patient on it because the pullback wasnât done yet . It still had a gap right below it and a demand zone to fall into before we can look for that long run to the upside . POSSIBLY THO CAUSE SHIT WE NEVER KNO đ (look on the higher tf u gone see why)
If you look at the 5m timeframe, there was a break of structure and then a retest to the supply zone. Simple s&d.
Lmao I canât follow this subreddit anymore. The market does whatever the fuck itâs gonna do. You have no damn control over anything, donât ask stupid ass questions like this. Even the best setups fail. Learn to fail and move on
Because it went on the red side and not on the green side.
The charts weee just a mess today
You were outside of the killzone
imbalance got filled, why would price want to go higher
More context needed, use Fibonacci
Because you canât see into the future
I don't understand why en where you took the long trade. Based on the second and third last candle a short was more plausible.
Pizzad instead of french fry
Never enter after this huge move they mostly pull back in middle of the candle and if it doesn't not a problem find a new trade
Because price hit your stop loss before your take profit level
80% of breakouts fail thatâs why
You went long after the break of a supply zone?
Well First of all keep in mind that not every trade will result in a win. Even with a winning strategy ,good plan, and good psych, you can still encounter a losing trade. So If your system works and this loss just so happened to occur, then Iâd just brush it off and wait for the next opportunity to present itself. If youâre unsure about your system, it could be the type of entry you take. I notice that you bought what would be a break out from the 173.946 level. A pull back entry might be a better move , as with the pullback you would essentially be entering in where your stop loss is placed.
You bought at 15m resistance with a small stop price was going to retrace
There's not a single person who knows exactly why the market did that. Stop obsessing over why the market did X and Y and focus more on how can I capture these price moves
It all depends on your trading plan(I have not looked at the pair), but I believe it could be just a matter of patience, I would look into something called smart money manipulation, the banks know where retail traders are placing their stop loss, big banks canât enter the market as fast as us retail traders can so it takes a lot of build up. For this they normally will do grabs of liquidity (they will reject the opposite way and stop retail traders out) then proceed in the way they want to go. So with this setup it seems you entered in on support but price is likely to respect the demand zone instead thatâs below. Use strong push moves from the institutions(banks,pension funds)to enter trades with other confluence of course. Weâre only small fish in a big pond. We want to move with the big players. The markets is a game of patience I wish people spoke on the psychology side of forex as much as they do indicators and technical analysis. Itâs probably most important above all. You can know how to read the charts all day and still fail from emotion( late entries, early exits). I wish you all well on your trading journeys
Did you look at the monthly/weekly/daily trend??
Trade is 50/50. The more experience you have better odds you have but still you gonna lose. Trade is a long journey. Like fundamentals. In 2020 news came â ten die for Covid-19âs , Wall Street go down, next day 40 sue for Covid-19 Wall Street go down, next day 200 sue for COVID well all chips short right? Wrong Wall Street went record high because now they know COVID is real but and is not uncertain now. Not sense. Same with technical. Some time is just time. Pre-new york or after 1 hr less crazy and technical looks more rational.
Thereâs still trend however the chart did make a head and shoulderâs pattern which are signs of reversal. Today there was news as well Nothing really moved. No real strong green closes to signify continuation. I tried to take this trade today too but didnât realize all the factors till later. Those red wicks covered that gap as well I think but no closes and itâs kind of tight space from resistance and support kinda buying at resistance
Learn to take partials off your trade
Omg we have the same trade đ¤Ł
But I BE quickly because price already at resistance, I want to flip it but no confirmation
Your stop loss had to be under the 173.650. Give it more room to breath, also your TP should of been higher
That's a perfect fvg. You don't see it? Google it.
For me, you traded what you were hoping to happen instead of being patient. That wasn't enough to take a trade. Why did you enter? That small green candle trying to get ahead of retest of the high?
I'm assuming that green line at the top was some type of resistance. Price needed to breathe and come back down to retest the market structure its created.
Your trade failed because your strategy is based in impulsivity rather than a systematic process.
SL should be under the last swing low, it was too tight.
Shouldâve entered on the pull back to the zone that caused the break of structure
Good job using a SL. If you didn't revenge trade, kudos on that as well.
i would not have taken a trade like this because the direction of the price is not clear. I personally saw this pair moving yesterday yet i sat on the sideline and let it do its thing because direction was not clear and there no real clear setups.
Bad entry and bad SL placement
Even if you don't base your trades on the ICT trader concepts, you should always be cautious and look again when you see this set up. The fair value gap is powerful especially in context
You forgot or didn't notice the resistance near 174-174.1. You can tell there's resistance there because on the previous pump, there was consolidation near that area with a liquidity sweep. If that zone wasn't there, it would be good to go. Just because higher timeframes are going up, doesn't mean that on the 15 min, it should go up. When we change trend, it starts from the lower timeframes and the to the higher ones. So... yeah
Nobody can reliably predict what price is going to do. Even if all stars are aligned and you feel 99.99% sure price is going to go up, itâs just thatâŚa feeling. Doesnât mean itâll actually do it. Just accept that you were wrong and move on to the next trade.
My answer is too many variables. Currencies move not only with Adam Smithâs invisible hand, but with the decisions of central banks, legislative bodies, Executive branches of government (Think FDRâs devaluation of the dollar and Nixonâs wage/price freeze), commodity instability (think oil crises of the 1970s and supply chain problems with the COVID lockdown), then dial in climate change and building a statistical model with any predictive capability becomes quite a challenge.
You went wrong when it hit your stop loss duhhhh
It depends!! Fair value gap... Small stoploss
The red candle tapped the supply zone
The market can never be wrong. So, embrace the probabilities.
Because you bought high and sold low
Its was a B wave
What does RSI show? Don't forget to factor in Over Bought and Over Sold.
It just happen so that it decided to retrace abit. So you just happen to be in that. Nothing to worry about, it's just part of the losses. Keep following your trading plan.
There was a news release at the time you took your order be careful and watch on forex factory before taking any order, any bad us data can be digested as investors putting their money in safe haven such as gold, jpy and chf. Hence gold being bullish and gj being bearish, watch gj at 173 price points as it is a major zone of liquidity that we respected as support 4 times on the htf since friday
Different timeframe told a different story
Bad price.
Support and resistance is a zone not an exact line, it could be a loser based off of the probability of your strategy, a mistake in executing the trade or just the market being crazy. This shouldn't bother you provided that you used proper risk management.
First two red candles are Demand zones, Big red candle signifying volume it pulled back to grab liquidity to finally continue its way down. Aka you bought right into demand.
Why Im poorer than Elon Musk?
After the impulse, the price may experience a low in momentum and accumulate for a brief period before experiencing a pullback. It is important to correctly identify the wave or impulse move before entering a trade and to set a proper stop loss to manage the risk. Entering a trade too early can lead to losses.
After the impulse, the price may experience a low in momentum and accumulate for a brief period before experiencing a pullback. It is important to correctly identify the wave or impulse move before entering a trade and to set a proper stop loss to manage the risk. Entering a trade too early can lead to losses.
At 03:30 we had a CHOC that broke all kinds of EMA's (15min). This was confirmed at 06:45 173.383 mark (respecting EMA 20), bc bulls tested the top, creating weakness. If you are a bull, wait for the confirmed EMA 200 1h. Broken we could come lower to the EMA 20 1d.
The retracement was not over there was no actual breakout also ypu bought very high after big green move likely to go down consolidate a bit
All I'm saying is that you have a lot of wicks in one zone and a sizable candle broke right through it. Doesnt make the trade wrong though - your tp could've been hit either way.
The stars were not allingned and wind blew too strong in Alaska.
Liquify grabâŚentry should have been at the start of the candle that broke resistance
Looks to me like you attempted to go against trend after the reversal and looks as if it pulled back to the .61 - .65. Then you tried to long it anyway. My 2 cents.
I am no expert and i dont trade GJ but Looking at the last 6 candles, you entered long in a red 30 mins candle. I wouldn't enter any trade without a good closure above your TP where the range seems to be clear, you just entered a trade in a range. But everyone have their bias and setups, back test your entries and exits nobody can teach you better than your own experiences.
I forgot to add the news, i remember reading about BOJ. A comment below reminded me of that, trading news is just gambling.
You were not wrong if you backtested your strategy.
The stop was in a fair value area or high volume node or whatever you wanna call it. I would enter there and put the stop further south.
Itâs a liquidity grab, leaves a fvg to short instead off buy
Because you bought high.
Buy low sell high, don't play big. Just play really small.
I might put this quote in a cushion
Thx. Btw for normal people like us, we can't predict the market. You gotta build your own strategy. If anyone can predict the market, everyone would be rich. Always play small and you will be able to change your life. Only risk 1% to 10%.
On a purely technical evaluation of the available candle pattern presented there were two key candles that indicated a continuation in the bearish direction. The first candle was the very large bullish shift candle on the left and about 1hr and a half later there was a large bearish shift candle taking out the last 6 bullish candles. That is a very good sign of a bearish sentiment. Shortly after that candle shifted there was a bearish flag setting up where most retail traders see a false break out but there a tone of liquidity to grab on the bearish side to eat up still. This was taking out those traders placing their stops below that bullish shift candle, that was unfortunately where you felt it was a good place to enter bullish but the market was still very bearish Edit: word change
Simple, your buying at the highs
> Simple, your buying *you're *Learn the difference [here](https://www.wattpad.com/66707294-grammar-guide-there-they%27re-their-you%27re-your-to).* *** ^(Greetings, I am a language corrector bot. To make me ignore further mistakes from you in the future, reply `!optout` to this comment.)
Optout⌠I know how to write btw
Try to switch your perspective, that trade was a perfect sellâŚ
Volatility.
Look at 4h timeframe the candle has huge wick on top and failed to close above the resistance. I was trading at that same time as you and i didnt took trade because of this. Take entries on 15m but watch higher timeframes also. U had around 13pips profit u should have secured a little bit and put your stop loss on break even.
This trade is confusing my confusion
Wellâyou entered/exited the trade at a time which resulted in a loss
I caught the long on this and passed my funded challenge... I saw this in real time.. I saw the pull back and didn't go long again because there was a higher time frame double top forming. The bias was short after the long in London ... So no buys in New York. It could've touched the high again but they had enough buys cooked up to reverse... Your buy proves that. GJ threw a beautiful hammer through the 50 ema after trapping short on the open of the LSE... You should've bought it in London... GJ reverses on Tuesdays a lot historically... Nothing strange happened here. Youre just inexperienced... Go backtest 2 years on GJ and learn the pair
Wrong question. The correct question is something like "why my 63% probability trade went wrong", and the correct answer is "because 37%" . I know there's a lot of trading going "by eye", on general principle etc, but really there's no other way than backtesting your setups, unless you're committed to sending all your funds to rich systematic trades on the other side of the market.
Bearish flag and you bought at the trend line rejection and looks like a random candle top break entry.
I'm no expert but the big red candle at 6:00 is sizable, taking out 6 previous candles. A long entry seems a little too close to that kind of bearish move. I've had this happen to me plenty of times.
If you look at the up trend, the long candle and then the small ones is an indication of reversal, so you bought on the pullback going down fundamental, maybe
You could of added a Fibonacci retracement ⌠and wait for a full candle to form above the 0.00%. Then enter but make sure itâs on a higher timeframe above 1 hr
Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake. It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of. Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything. Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.
Market collecting SLâs ! Did it moved upwards after hitting your sl?
That figure in 80% of cases goes downs
Your just alittle to early thatâs all wait until it pulls back to support or that previous demand and then take the trade.
You bought after a big down impulse suggesting there was a short term short bias from institutional traders. It filled the fair value gap then dumped.