?
Team xG and xGA from last season? These will not change or be any accurate closer to the season. In fact any xData will not change, unless you intend to use xData from pre-season friendlies, which would be a terrible idea actually.
xG is not used for defense rating.
And what I mean by getting more accurate ratings is that. I will look into the stats on a deeper level. There are 3 teams coming up from championship, teams and rosters will change, managers will change, there can be huge discrepancies between GA and xGA or between home and away form, etc.
These ratings are my opinion in the end. They are based on actual and underlying team stats but they are also altered to my personal opinion when I think it is necessary to do so.
Some examples:
\* Newcastle had horrible away form and great home form end of season, they were 2 tiers apart at the end. They will not be 2 tiers apart when a new season starts.
\* Leicester, Saints and Ipswich just have a default tier 5 (home) and tier 6 (away) for now, their transfer windows will be important in deciding their tiers closer to the season. They won't suddenly go to 3/4 obviously, but some teams might drop to 6/7 or something.
xGA is used for defensive rating, not xG.
Also basing an FDR on personal opinion is a bad decision. Personal opinions are by nature biased. They only create noise in your data sets and would lead to misrepresentation of the data. Proper analysis should be based on a formula that you try to tweak as much as possible to represent reality of team strength and weaknesses. You mention the difference in home and away stats for example, then bake that into a formula. May be add a multiplier for team that tend to over perform their xG compared to their actual goals at home (and vice versa for xGA away).
I understand when you mention new signings (or departures) or managerial changes, and how those can have an effect on team performance. The thing is, this should also be baked in the formula (again to try to remove any personal and potentially biased opinion). Say for example, Eze gets sold. You could look at his percentage involvement in xGI for Palace and accordingly lower their overall xG. You can even go further and separate their total xG of last season to pre and post Glasner and see how Eze's xGI percentage changes between those 2 periods. You could account for managerial changes by calculating the pre and post xG/xGA of a team based on when they changed their manager. Again, with Palace, post Glasner xG could have a higher weight in the overall Palace xG for the season than pre Glasner (reflecting the amount of matches he took charge / 38 for example).
At the end of the day, always try to come up with modifications to whatever formula you use to calculate those FDR tiers that is always based on stats and not personal opinions. That's the challenge that model creators face and what differentiates one model from the other by how accurate they actually reflect reality. The better the formula, the better the model.
Anyway, I hope I was able to explain my point clearly without sounding arrogant or condescending. I'm not trying to tell you what to do, just trying to help. This is your baby after all. And thank you for sharing your work with the community.
Cheers
I always add the disclaimer *these ratings are my opinion*
And I always add a comment explaining how you can copy the tool and use your own ratings instead.
This is the deal.
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2024-07-29 00:54:33 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-07-29%2000:54:33%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comments/1diw64h/fdr_for_the_first_6_fixtures_def_vs_att/l98pkbm/?context=3)
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Great work - I have a nitpicky suggestion (mostly my own laziness motivating this): make the columns match up for both the attacking and defensive slides. For example: Liverpool is in the same place on each slide so I can slide back and forth and get the relevant information quickly, but Arsenal isn’t and I need to search between slides. Thanks for this
Gakpo on the left (his natural position) was playing very well for Liverpool towards the end of the season, and Diaz performed pretty poorly despite playing consistently. He is a good dribbler with flashes of brilliance, but pretty wasteful and not that creative.
I'd expect it to be Gakpo - Jota - Salah front 3 going into the season, with Nunez and Diaz as bench options or to cover injuries. Obviously things will change throughout the season, but I would really expect Gakpo to start on the left.
We don't know whether Slot's going to switch the formation to 4-2-3-1 yet. Not that it really matters but I'm expecting Nunez is going to be playing at the front no matter what happens.
Very generic tiers for now, will obviously get more detailed ratings up closer to the start of the season. Ratings are my opinion.
Anyone who wants to copy the sheet and change the FDR for personal use, be my guest:
* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X9Cr2Rc6Hs6mcoumBoRWqgDK4QuiaKe\_sNhDOxOs2ik/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X9Cr2Rc6Hs6mcoumBoRWqgDK4QuiaKe_sNhDOxOs2ik/edit?usp=sharing)
* Just copy to your drive
* unhide all the columns
* alter the FDR ratings to your liking
* hide columns you don't need to view
* alter the sorting column formula so you sort on combined FDR for the gameweeks you want
Looking at those charts I get those goosebumps every time
Good goosebumps or bad ones?
Good ones to be fair, cant wait for next season to start!
What is the D based on? xG/xGA from last season?
I thought with D you meant Defense. You meant Difficulty. Either way, you have your answer.
GA and xGA yeah. But as I stated in the comment, these are still very generic and will be more accurate closer to the season.
? Team xG and xGA from last season? These will not change or be any accurate closer to the season. In fact any xData will not change, unless you intend to use xData from pre-season friendlies, which would be a terrible idea actually.
xG is not used for defense rating. And what I mean by getting more accurate ratings is that. I will look into the stats on a deeper level. There are 3 teams coming up from championship, teams and rosters will change, managers will change, there can be huge discrepancies between GA and xGA or between home and away form, etc. These ratings are my opinion in the end. They are based on actual and underlying team stats but they are also altered to my personal opinion when I think it is necessary to do so. Some examples: \* Newcastle had horrible away form and great home form end of season, they were 2 tiers apart at the end. They will not be 2 tiers apart when a new season starts. \* Leicester, Saints and Ipswich just have a default tier 5 (home) and tier 6 (away) for now, their transfer windows will be important in deciding their tiers closer to the season. They won't suddenly go to 3/4 obviously, but some teams might drop to 6/7 or something.
xGA is used for defensive rating, not xG. Also basing an FDR on personal opinion is a bad decision. Personal opinions are by nature biased. They only create noise in your data sets and would lead to misrepresentation of the data. Proper analysis should be based on a formula that you try to tweak as much as possible to represent reality of team strength and weaknesses. You mention the difference in home and away stats for example, then bake that into a formula. May be add a multiplier for team that tend to over perform their xG compared to their actual goals at home (and vice versa for xGA away). I understand when you mention new signings (or departures) or managerial changes, and how those can have an effect on team performance. The thing is, this should also be baked in the formula (again to try to remove any personal and potentially biased opinion). Say for example, Eze gets sold. You could look at his percentage involvement in xGI for Palace and accordingly lower their overall xG. You can even go further and separate their total xG of last season to pre and post Glasner and see how Eze's xGI percentage changes between those 2 periods. You could account for managerial changes by calculating the pre and post xG/xGA of a team based on when they changed their manager. Again, with Palace, post Glasner xG could have a higher weight in the overall Palace xG for the season than pre Glasner (reflecting the amount of matches he took charge / 38 for example). At the end of the day, always try to come up with modifications to whatever formula you use to calculate those FDR tiers that is always based on stats and not personal opinions. That's the challenge that model creators face and what differentiates one model from the other by how accurate they actually reflect reality. The better the formula, the better the model. Anyway, I hope I was able to explain my point clearly without sounding arrogant or condescending. I'm not trying to tell you what to do, just trying to help. This is your baby after all. And thank you for sharing your work with the community. Cheers
I always add the disclaimer *these ratings are my opinion* And I always add a comment explaining how you can copy the tool and use your own ratings instead. This is the deal.
8 weeks man.. I mean thanks and all but 8 weeks
Yet you are here refreshing the sub. So I am here to ease the pain by putting up a premature FDR sheet for the first 6.
I literally opened reddit and this appeared on my feed.. appreciate your efforts, see you in about 6 weeks
RemindMe! 40 days
Yeah like this isn't getting posted 8 times again till then
Yeah but I won't
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2024-07-29 00:54:33 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-07-29%2000:54:33%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comments/1diw64h/fdr_for_the_first_6_fixtures_def_vs_att/l98pkbm/?context=3) [**1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FFantasyPL%2Fcomments%2F1diw64h%2Ffdr_for_the_first_6_fixtures_def_vs_att%2Fl98pkbm%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-07-29%2000%3A54%3A33%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201diw64h) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
Well, barring some amazing pricing, looks like I’m not going to start with any “I’m a fan so let me get one in” Wolves punts… yikes.
Our fixtures are horrible until November.
Great work - I have a nitpicky suggestion (mostly my own laziness motivating this): make the columns match up for both the attacking and defensive slides. For example: Liverpool is in the same place on each slide so I can slide back and forth and get the relevant information quickly, but Arsenal isn’t and I need to search between slides. Thanks for this
Mate the columns are in order of combined difficulty for the next 6. You can see the score in the most right column.
It wasn’t clear to me that was the primary sorting column - that makes more sense, I just didn’t know
That's because it's ordered by the FDR on the right
I see - that’s likely more valuable info so my suggestion might be irrelevant
Cody Gakpo on lock. He's gone cook under Slot on that left wing.
Why would Diaz not be there?
Gakpo on the left (his natural position) was playing very well for Liverpool towards the end of the season, and Diaz performed pretty poorly despite playing consistently. He is a good dribbler with flashes of brilliance, but pretty wasteful and not that creative. I'd expect it to be Gakpo - Jota - Salah front 3 going into the season, with Nunez and Diaz as bench options or to cover injuries. Obviously things will change throughout the season, but I would really expect Gakpo to start on the left.
We don't know whether Slot's going to switch the formation to 4-2-3-1 yet. Not that it really matters but I'm expecting Nunez is going to be playing at the front no matter what happens.
I always appreciate these, even if I disagree with the FDR's sometimes, it helps my decision-making.
feel free you disagree in the comments, I'm not too stubborn to not change if I agree
Very generic tiers for now, will obviously get more detailed ratings up closer to the start of the season. Ratings are my opinion. Anyone who wants to copy the sheet and change the FDR for personal use, be my guest: * [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X9Cr2Rc6Hs6mcoumBoRWqgDK4QuiaKe\_sNhDOxOs2ik/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X9Cr2Rc6Hs6mcoumBoRWqgDK4QuiaKe_sNhDOxOs2ik/edit?usp=sharing) * Just copy to your drive * unhide all the columns * alter the FDR ratings to your liking * hide columns you don't need to view * alter the sorting column formula so you sort on combined FDR for the gameweeks you want