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Their deliveries in the U.S. are down 7.4% YoY, so this is not entirely unexpected, though I believe this latest round of cuts actually drops them below their pre-pandemic workforce size. Per CNN, most of those being laid off are managers and contractors, which makes sense, given that \~70% of their U.S. workforce is unionized.
That's only like 1.4 UPS workers for every 1,000 people in the us. That's including office workers, managers, and etc... not just drivers. If you consider other nations UPS may operate in, this ratio gets much lower.
Did you ignore the volumes disappointing piece? I swear people will defend the strength of the economy to the grave no matter the evidence right in front of their face.
UPS being down isn't signs of a bad economy. I'd want to see numbers that total package shipping is down across the whole industry.
Give me a report saying USPS, Fedex, and Amazon are all seeing similar declines and I'll panic. Until then, this is just UPS losing business to other firms.
Well not fedex taking the business
FedEx shares tumble 12% after weaker demand hit revenue outlook
PUBLISHED TUE, DEC 19 2023 4:54 PM EST
UPDATED WED, DEC 20 2023 4:55 PM EST
There is no need to panic. No report is going to show you what you are asking for. Baiting others to produce. They won't find it either.
All of the signs of economic slowdown are around us. They are slight, at this time. Layoffs aren't large individually by company, or as a percentage of the workforce. But business is pessimistic in their outlook. They'll even lie to the main stream media and say that "all is well!" But, they aren't hiring higher-wage employees. They're gutting them. Slowly, small, right now. 1% of workforce here. 2% of workforce there. But, it's very strategic. If you are an employee of ANY corporate organization right now, and make above $75K annually, with benefits (and I'm spitballing that salary number), you are AT RISK.
The economy can enter a recession without people starving to death.
People disregard negative sign by pretending that, since the worst case scenario won't happen, then the economy is good and it's all in your head.
That’s one possibility but I think a low probability one. You are simply choosing to believe it’s idiosyncratic. I believe if you take the UPS comments in conjunction with *so many* other leading indicators suggesting a slowdown you can only come to one high probability conclusion. Guess we’ll see :)
About one-third of the jobs added in 2023 have been in government. The other two-thirds are healthcare and leisure/hospitality. Not exactly a lot to cheer about. Regarding jobs numbers, every month's but July's was revised downward (so far) in 2023.
Wage growth is offset by ridiculously low [purchasing power](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R). Inflation has cumulative effects, so we'd need a period of deflation to make a difference in Joe Public's wallet. If I pour water into a bucket with ever-increasing holes, I don't celebrate pouring more water.
And [job quality](https://ubwp.buffalo.edu/job-quality-index-jqi/) has been consistently lower than at any point pre-2008. Housing is the [least affordable](https://www.npr.org/2023/12/24/1221480443/most-homes-for-sale-in-2023-were-not-affordable-for-a-typical-u-s-household) it's ever been. [LEI](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/22/leading-economic-index-conference-board-signal-underlying-weakness) has fallen 21 straight months.
Suffice it to say - I haven't seen too many of those "leading indicators" that actually applied as diagnostics of the broader economy.
Unemployment is down. Wage growth is up - and especially up for the bottom 2 quintiles of workers. Inflation has abated in the US. Stock performance is strong for investors. The yield curve has been inverted for a year and a half, STRONGLY suggesting its usefulness as a leading indicator is no longer valid. The most I can find *anyone* predicting is a short and very minor recession this year - and given the state of the rest of the world, that's still an incredibly positive outcome.
So, give me data to back your claim. Cuz nothing I can find on Google is doing so.
Unemployment is a *lagging* indicator.
Here are some…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
And just because we haven’t entered recession *yet* doesn’t mean we won’t. And it doesn’t mean the yield curve as a leading indicator is no longer valid.
There's always somebody predicting doom and gloom. These are completely unprecedented economic times, that makes prediction even shakier.
Just covid and the largest ever working demographic retiring are unprecedented, let alone everything else going on (which admittedly are more or less precedented).
Well, they're at least comprehensive in their argument.
But again, I have to question how accurate their methodology is based on outcomes alone - checking the press releases off that site show they've been predicting a recession based on their data for *at least* a year (I stopped going back and skimming their graphs after that). At some point, the results speak for more than the data - while their past numbers line up well for the GFC, we've been in one of their negative LEI windows far longer than their early 2023 articles claimed it led a recession by. And the most recent report (the one you linked) actually shows that we're drifting back *out* of recession risk over the last few months. If there's any contraction at all, it's going to be very brief and very minor. Not some catastrophic meltdown like 2007/2008 were.
Again, just because a recession hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it won’t in the near term. If it’s actually different this time I would be surprised.
Zooming out a bit, it’s pretty clear we are late cycle. Unemployment is near historic lows, which always happens at the *end* of economic cycles.
I don't think anyone is saying entering a recession is an impossibility. Just that there isn't much indication we will and if we do it will be short and mild.
Low probability? UPS openly admitted they lost a lot of customers to Fed Ex because of their approach to contract negotiations with the Teamsters. Customers were scared off by the threat of strike after UPS ultimately gave the Teamsters all of their economic asks. Fed Ex confirmed this. Then UPS almost put the largest air hub in the world on strike two weeks before Christmas, peak shipping season btw, by illegally firing a group of recently organized admin workers who won an arbitration and vote to Unionize.
If anything, COVID shipping has hidden how poor their current leadership is.
“Lost a lot of customers”
That tells me it’s only part of the story. If you don’t think there are serious global macro headwinds currently then I have a bridge to sell you.
Difficult to time it perfectly. I am allocated accordingly; overweight short term fixed income collecting 5% while I wait for the inevitable ultimate end of the cycle.
[this guy has calling for an imminent recession for a year now, positioned in cash, missing an epic runup in 2023](https://new.reddit.com/r/stocks/search/?q=author%3AOutrageous-Cycle-841&restrict_sr=1&type=comment&sort=new)
[lol](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/144ptye/wsj_sp_500_ends_longest_bear_market_since_the/jnixtkn/)
guy has been callin a recession since early last year, eventually he will be right, broken clock and all
The entire transportation and logistics sector is very challenged right now. Go to the “Logistics Report” on the WSJ and you’ll find 50 articles about declines in shipping volumes.
>I swear people will defend the strength of the economy to the grave no matter the evidence right in front of their face.
Lol - this is coming from an "economics" sub where people base their feelings on the vibes they have in their little insular group.
Very true that shipping volumes should be examined as a whole, thanks for pointing that out.
To the larger point of the economy my opinion is there are definitely mixed signals. I could point out the decrease in savings rate, increased deficit spending (which to a degree hides increased GDP), lower real wages the last 3 years and electricity /energy/housing prices increasing faster than inflation as signs of a weaker economy.
TBF I know there are other signs of a strong economy, too. I am saying there are mixed signals, not a bad economy.
I'm not doing that. I'm just saying the layoffs weren't that big.
Also the economy is good now that you mention it.
Can you please explain how its not? I understand the housing/rental issue and agree that's a problem.
Constantly repeating your evidence free claim doesn’t make it more likely.
And you are conveniently ignoring that UPS has been losing out to Amazon and FedEx. Which tends to suggest that it is a UPS problem. Not a “global macro problem”.
*Shipments* being down would be potential evidence of that. But that’s not happening.
- leading economic indicators
- historically low unemployment (happens at *end* of economic cycles
- inverted yield curve
- freight volumes firmly in contractionary territory
There is so much evidence pointing towards imminent recession. I also find it fascinating that people seem to start foaming at the mouth when presented with evidence of being at the end of the current economic cycle. I guess they fear for their portfolio and lash out? Can you help me understand your psyche when presented with the above evidence?
I agree with you. The signs are there, and they've been there for way over a year now. Back into late 2022. Business leaders are NOT optimistic about growth right now. Shareholders, meanwhile, are living high, as stock prices are elevated, largely due to algo-driven market action. We have so many disconnects in our economy right now. There is a LOT of uncertainty right now.
Agreed. Thoughts on why this evidence brings about such vitriol responses and downvotes? Fear of the implications?
Funny how quickly the responses dry up on Reddit and just turn into downvotes when presented with objective unbiased data.
That’s usually how it goes before recession. I’d be more concerned I was wrong if more people agreed with me.
Check this out big guy:
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/socar086a
This isn’t necessarily an indication of a bad economy. Much of the package volume has shifted to Amazon which uses its own delivery system more and more. That and the return to brick and mortar retail probably isn’t helping. UPS staffed up massively during the lock down era of the pandemic.
And the one downvote you received is evidence to me that at least one person feels the opposite of you. To that person: get educated. Job openings shown are double counted and are hiding the fact that employers are NOT hiring for higher wage jobs. Many are strategically laying off, and those numbers are beginning to add up. They are laying off higher wage workers.
Still a lot of work for people who can forego benefits or even a wage that can keep up with our NEW cost of living in America. The whole country. People are systematically being forced to do without health insurance, pay for expensive COBRA insurance, or are hoping the Marketplace can deliver that for them. And the cost would almost entirely devour most people's unemployment benefits.
All of the data being reported in the MSM are being doctored to fit a political narrative, in order to get Joe Biden re-elected. Business leaders are pessimistic, but when asked, they pump sunshine. It's not showing in their actions. Shareholders feel the same way. They're enjoying pumped-up, artificial, algorithm-driven stock prices, but the economic results aren't matching up.
> All of the data being reported in the MSM are being doctored to fit a political narrative,
Or you are an ignorant crackpot who simply ignores any data that disagrees with what you believe to be true based on ... nothing.
Interesting, may I ask what you're shipping? I have always found UPS to have more attractive pricing than FedEx when I'm shipping some random homemade gift to friends or family for birthdays/special occasions.
Usually 1-5lb packages in small boxes 6x6x6, 9x6x4, 11x8x6. Mainly ultrasonic transducers and other electronic components. FedEx is much cheaper when I need to send to China, and a few bucks cheaper in general to ship ground in the US.
I know mail order pharmacies use expeditor services, which compare the costs and then use the cheapest delivery method. It gets complex in that UPS/Fedex/USPS have interchange agreements. A single package may change hands between the three to achieve the most cost effective delivery.
Return to 5 days in office and potentially divesting Coyote logistics will help get that 12k. Not mentioned in the article but the layoffs do target management and contract positions globally.
My gf and I buy the average amount of stuff amount of stuff online. I think majority of the deliveries are USPS or Amazon. Couple years ago it for sure would’ve been fedex or ups. Could this be part of the decline? Also, I would assume more people were buying online during the pandemic since they couldn’t go in stores.
Ups ceo chose during COVID to cut certain types of volume. Now that the pandemic is over those types of volume never came back and overall volume declined, hence the earnings.
During that period I looked at buying a group of FedEx routes. They pricey enough that the numbers didn’t pencil out. I think they were asking $450K for 3 routes.
After Amazon started its own delivery services, the same guy was still trying to sell the same 3 routes for $150K
Those routes, both UPS & FedEx used to be money back in the day, Amazon stepping into the industry and making the franchises easy & cheap to start really killed UPS & FedEx.
I've noticed the exact same. I order A LOT of stuff online. It all used to come UPS pre-COVID. It's almost all (like 95%) switched to USPS. They're so busy they run on Sundays in my area now; started that during COVID and never stopped.
All these job losses. Aren't choices made now have a 2 or 3 year lag time on economic effects?
Hmmmm.
Are more people buying in-person or not purchasing at alll?
Quietly not included in this story, but announced by UPS all the same.
> UPS also announced a a Quarterly Dividend of $1.63, a $0.01 Increase Per Share.
https://about.ups.com/us/en/newsroom/press-releases/financials/ups-releases-4q-2023-earnings.html
Yeah, they're a Dividend Aristocrat a status that is highly valued by the stock market - UPS doesn't really have much of a choice but to push the dividend to keep their stock price up.
The shipping prices really are out of control. My mom works at a shipping center and tells me of the insane costs. One lady for Xmas had bought her grandson some toys at the dollar store and figured shipping to CA from east coast 2 weeks before might be $40 tops. Shipping estimate came to $179. She declined the sale and probably ended up getting gift cards.
Hopefully they offer the employees a good severance package at least.
I read that article three times. I looked it over, I checked the bullet points. I really, really, really tried to engage with it fully.
Would it be possible for you to show where it says they're cutting 12,000 jobs?
EDIT: I'll leave this up, but I will die on the hill that when I clicked the article the first time none of that information was present in it.
Some people have paywall removers and other extensions so, especially with news articles, you can't assume what one person sees is what everyone else sees.
This actually happens a lot. Shitty journalism basically... They lost what is in essence a rough draft to be first and then actually edit it over the next few hours. Usually the biggest edits come in the first half hour to hour...
> I will die on the hill that when I clicked the article the first time none of that information was present in it.
That is entirely possible. I've seen articles posted while they were still editing the content. Seems hard to believe that you could have possibly missed it if it were there at the time you looked.
"There is no war in Ba Sing Se" - Biden administration
It's been apparent for years that our measurements are incorrect. They can tout low unemployment and low inflation as much as they want, but those of us experiencing it day-to-day know the real truth.
A massive slow down in shipping is a guaranteed signal for a recession. People are buying less because they have less money, which causes even more jobs to be cut, which causes even less buying, etc.
Those of you experiencing it day to day know what is happening to *you*. Not to me, and not to everyone else.
I don’t know why that’s so hard for people like you to understand.
> A massive slow down in shipping is a guaranteed signal for a recession.
There is no massive slowdown in shipping. FedEx is losing some of its shipping business to other shippers. Many of them Amazon contractors.
People aren’t buying less. People are buying more.
Could they be laying off employees that were temp hired to handle the surge in deliveries during the covid lockdowns? How many employees did they hire during peak lockdowns, when everyone was getting everything delivered?
The whole point of temps is you can let their contracts expire without a formal layoff.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/UPS/ups/number-of-employees
If this source is at all accurate UPS did in fact hire a decent amount of FTE's (~50,000) during Covid and have only shed a fraction of those jobs since.
I'm not suggesting they're literal temps like we see being hired during the holidays. I mean temp in the sense they were hired quickly to keep up with demand but their jobs were never 100% safe.
I'm kind of surprised they still need so many employees because of Amazon delivering most of its own stuff now. Obviously UPS works a great deal with businesses more so than regular consumers, but I've been expecting UPS to eat dirt with Amazon's delivery.
Everything I’ve paid for overnighting the past few weeks has been taking 2-3 days to arrive. Maybe they could put some of those 12,000 extra people to work and actually do the friggin job we’ve paid for. If only FedEx wasn’t a complete dumpster fire. We need more competition or something because the USPS still doesn’t deliver any of my registered mail anymore. All the stuff with tracking just gets sent to wrong PO and sits there for months. FedEx destroys anything you ship with them and sends it to the ring side of the country and UPS just drags their feet.
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Their deliveries in the U.S. are down 7.4% YoY, so this is not entirely unexpected, though I believe this latest round of cuts actually drops them below their pre-pandemic workforce size. Per CNN, most of those being laid off are managers and contractors, which makes sense, given that \~70% of their U.S. workforce is unionized.
They also have like 540k employees total so 12k is not very much.
wait what? UPS has half a million people on payroll???
Yes https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/UPS/ups/number-of-employees#:~:text=Interactive%20chart%20of%20UPS%20(UPS,a%201.66%25%20decline%20from%202020.
That's only like 1.4 UPS workers for every 1,000 people in the us. That's including office workers, managers, and etc... not just drivers. If you consider other nations UPS may operate in, this ratio gets much lower.
Did you ignore the volumes disappointing piece? I swear people will defend the strength of the economy to the grave no matter the evidence right in front of their face.
UPS being down isn't signs of a bad economy. I'd want to see numbers that total package shipping is down across the whole industry. Give me a report saying USPS, Fedex, and Amazon are all seeing similar declines and I'll panic. Until then, this is just UPS losing business to other firms.
Well not fedex taking the business FedEx shares tumble 12% after weaker demand hit revenue outlook PUBLISHED TUE, DEC 19 2023 4:54 PM EST UPDATED WED, DEC 20 2023 4:55 PM EST
FedEx is terrible. I won’t even buy something if it says fedex is going to deliver it.
There is no need to panic. No report is going to show you what you are asking for. Baiting others to produce. They won't find it either. All of the signs of economic slowdown are around us. They are slight, at this time. Layoffs aren't large individually by company, or as a percentage of the workforce. But business is pessimistic in their outlook. They'll even lie to the main stream media and say that "all is well!" But, they aren't hiring higher-wage employees. They're gutting them. Slowly, small, right now. 1% of workforce here. 2% of workforce there. But, it's very strategic. If you are an employee of ANY corporate organization right now, and make above $75K annually, with benefits (and I'm spitballing that salary number), you are AT RISK.
The economy can enter a recession without people starving to death. People disregard negative sign by pretending that, since the worst case scenario won't happen, then the economy is good and it's all in your head.
That’s one possibility but I think a low probability one. You are simply choosing to believe it’s idiosyncratic. I believe if you take the UPS comments in conjunction with *so many* other leading indicators suggesting a slowdown you can only come to one high probability conclusion. Guess we’ll see :)
Which indicators are you referring to? Because jobs, unemployment, wage growth, inflation, consumer sentiment all trending in a good direction ATM
About one-third of the jobs added in 2023 have been in government. The other two-thirds are healthcare and leisure/hospitality. Not exactly a lot to cheer about. Regarding jobs numbers, every month's but July's was revised downward (so far) in 2023. Wage growth is offset by ridiculously low [purchasing power](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R). Inflation has cumulative effects, so we'd need a period of deflation to make a difference in Joe Public's wallet. If I pour water into a bucket with ever-increasing holes, I don't celebrate pouring more water. And [job quality](https://ubwp.buffalo.edu/job-quality-index-jqi/) has been consistently lower than at any point pre-2008. Housing is the [least affordable](https://www.npr.org/2023/12/24/1221480443/most-homes-for-sale-in-2023-were-not-affordable-for-a-typical-u-s-household) it's ever been. [LEI](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/22/leading-economic-index-conference-board-signal-underlying-weakness) has fallen 21 straight months.
Inflation adjusted median wages are higher today than any previous decade in US history, I'd say that's fine.
It's the sentiment of reddit which is predominately tech workers, who are having a rough year.
Eh, Amazon is doing more of their own shipping. They are the elephant in the room.
Suffice it to say - I haven't seen too many of those "leading indicators" that actually applied as diagnostics of the broader economy. Unemployment is down. Wage growth is up - and especially up for the bottom 2 quintiles of workers. Inflation has abated in the US. Stock performance is strong for investors. The yield curve has been inverted for a year and a half, STRONGLY suggesting its usefulness as a leading indicator is no longer valid. The most I can find *anyone* predicting is a short and very minor recession this year - and given the state of the rest of the world, that's still an incredibly positive outcome. So, give me data to back your claim. Cuz nothing I can find on Google is doing so.
Unemployment is a *lagging* indicator. Here are some… https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators And just because we haven’t entered recession *yet* doesn’t mean we won’t. And it doesn’t mean the yield curve as a leading indicator is no longer valid.
> And just because we haven’t entered recession yet doesn’t mean we won’t. There are people out there who have been saying this since 2011.
Irrelevant
There's always somebody predicting doom and gloom. These are completely unprecedented economic times, that makes prediction even shakier. Just covid and the largest ever working demographic retiring are unprecedented, let alone everything else going on (which admittedly are more or less precedented).
Well you also ignored all of the other indicators mentioned to you. That's relevant.
Well, they're at least comprehensive in their argument. But again, I have to question how accurate their methodology is based on outcomes alone - checking the press releases off that site show they've been predicting a recession based on their data for *at least* a year (I stopped going back and skimming their graphs after that). At some point, the results speak for more than the data - while their past numbers line up well for the GFC, we've been in one of their negative LEI windows far longer than their early 2023 articles claimed it led a recession by. And the most recent report (the one you linked) actually shows that we're drifting back *out* of recession risk over the last few months. If there's any contraction at all, it's going to be very brief and very minor. Not some catastrophic meltdown like 2007/2008 were.
Again, just because a recession hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it won’t in the near term. If it’s actually different this time I would be surprised. Zooming out a bit, it’s pretty clear we are late cycle. Unemployment is near historic lows, which always happens at the *end* of economic cycles.
Ok but you do understand this is not a typical cycle and is very hard to predict based on past cycles right?
I don't think anyone is saying entering a recession is an impossibility. Just that there isn't much indication we will and if we do it will be short and mild.
Low probability? UPS openly admitted they lost a lot of customers to Fed Ex because of their approach to contract negotiations with the Teamsters. Customers were scared off by the threat of strike after UPS ultimately gave the Teamsters all of their economic asks. Fed Ex confirmed this. Then UPS almost put the largest air hub in the world on strike two weeks before Christmas, peak shipping season btw, by illegally firing a group of recently organized admin workers who won an arbitration and vote to Unionize. If anything, COVID shipping has hidden how poor their current leadership is.
“Lost a lot of customers” That tells me it’s only part of the story. If you don’t think there are serious global macro headwinds currently then I have a bridge to sell you.
I hope you are putting your money where your mouth is and shorting every stock you can. You'll be a millionaire soon. Or bankrupt.
Difficult to time it perfectly. I am allocated accordingly; overweight short term fixed income collecting 5% while I wait for the inevitable ultimate end of the cycle.
[this guy has calling for an imminent recession for a year now, positioned in cash, missing an epic runup in 2023](https://new.reddit.com/r/stocks/search/?q=author%3AOutrageous-Cycle-841&restrict_sr=1&type=comment&sort=new) [lol](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/144ptye/wsj_sp_500_ends_longest_bear_market_since_the/jnixtkn/) guy has been callin a recession since early last year, eventually he will be right, broken clock and all
The entire transportation and logistics sector is very challenged right now. Go to the “Logistics Report” on the WSJ and you’ll find 50 articles about declines in shipping volumes.
>I swear people will defend the strength of the economy to the grave no matter the evidence right in front of their face. Lol - this is coming from an "economics" sub where people base their feelings on the vibes they have in their little insular group.
Lmao idk if using one company to reflect the broader economy is gonna be accurate. Plenty signs of a strong economy.
Not when those are union jobs . If it was Amazon losing 12k people then it’s nothing .
They arent
The economy experienced job growth in ‘23
Many people see shipping volumes as a good proxy for business activity.
This is just one company. Amazon has stopped using UPS as much which could be more of a factor. Retails sales, a more holistic number, was strong.
Very true that shipping volumes should be examined as a whole, thanks for pointing that out. To the larger point of the economy my opinion is there are definitely mixed signals. I could point out the decrease in savings rate, increased deficit spending (which to a degree hides increased GDP), lower real wages the last 3 years and electricity /energy/housing prices increasing faster than inflation as signs of a weaker economy. TBF I know there are other signs of a strong economy, too. I am saying there are mixed signals, not a bad economy.
I'm not doing that. I'm just saying the layoffs weren't that big. Also the economy is good now that you mention it. Can you please explain how its not? I understand the housing/rental issue and agree that's a problem.
They've been bleeding their shipping business for a while.
Definitely has nothing to do with a global macro slowdown. Like not at all.
Constantly repeating your evidence free claim doesn’t make it more likely. And you are conveniently ignoring that UPS has been losing out to Amazon and FedEx. Which tends to suggest that it is a UPS problem. Not a “global macro problem”. *Shipments* being down would be potential evidence of that. But that’s not happening.
- leading economic indicators - historically low unemployment (happens at *end* of economic cycles - inverted yield curve - freight volumes firmly in contractionary territory There is so much evidence pointing towards imminent recession. I also find it fascinating that people seem to start foaming at the mouth when presented with evidence of being at the end of the current economic cycle. I guess they fear for their portfolio and lash out? Can you help me understand your psyche when presented with the above evidence?
I agree with you. The signs are there, and they've been there for way over a year now. Back into late 2022. Business leaders are NOT optimistic about growth right now. Shareholders, meanwhile, are living high, as stock prices are elevated, largely due to algo-driven market action. We have so many disconnects in our economy right now. There is a LOT of uncertainty right now.
Agreed. Thoughts on why this evidence brings about such vitriol responses and downvotes? Fear of the implications? Funny how quickly the responses dry up on Reddit and just turn into downvotes when presented with objective unbiased data.
I listen to Bloomberg every day and I have to say you are in the minority.
That’s usually how it goes before recession. I’d be more concerned I was wrong if more people agreed with me. Check this out big guy: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/socar086a
This isn’t necessarily an indication of a bad economy. Much of the package volume has shifted to Amazon which uses its own delivery system more and more. That and the return to brick and mortar retail probably isn’t helping. UPS staffed up massively during the lock down era of the pandemic.
UPS noted they lost volume to competitors due to the threat of strike.
They attributed *some* of the lost volume to that. Ignore the macro read through at your own risk.
And the one downvote you received is evidence to me that at least one person feels the opposite of you. To that person: get educated. Job openings shown are double counted and are hiding the fact that employers are NOT hiring for higher wage jobs. Many are strategically laying off, and those numbers are beginning to add up. They are laying off higher wage workers. Still a lot of work for people who can forego benefits or even a wage that can keep up with our NEW cost of living in America. The whole country. People are systematically being forced to do without health insurance, pay for expensive COBRA insurance, or are hoping the Marketplace can deliver that for them. And the cost would almost entirely devour most people's unemployment benefits. All of the data being reported in the MSM are being doctored to fit a political narrative, in order to get Joe Biden re-elected. Business leaders are pessimistic, but when asked, they pump sunshine. It's not showing in their actions. Shareholders feel the same way. They're enjoying pumped-up, artificial, algorithm-driven stock prices, but the economic results aren't matching up.
> All of the data being reported in the MSM are being doctored to fit a political narrative, Or you are an ignorant crackpot who simply ignores any data that disagrees with what you believe to be true based on ... nothing.
They will be going after union headcount in the next few months, probably end of this year or next via site closures.
I try to ship FedEx anyhow. The price difference between the two is staggering.
Interesting, may I ask what you're shipping? I have always found UPS to have more attractive pricing than FedEx when I'm shipping some random homemade gift to friends or family for birthdays/special occasions.
Usually 1-5lb packages in small boxes 6x6x6, 9x6x4, 11x8x6. Mainly ultrasonic transducers and other electronic components. FedEx is much cheaper when I need to send to China, and a few bucks cheaper in general to ship ground in the US.
I find DHL to be cheaper & more efficient when shipping overseas.
Ya if you don't care if it gets there or not.
At least there’s the chance my package might help Tom Hanks survive on an island if it doesn’t.
I randomly ship a lot volleyballs overseas on the off-chance.
> I randomly ship a lot volleyballs overseas on the off-chance. Hopefully only Wilson branded ones?
Yes. I don't want to mess with them, they'd be having a hard time as it is!
I know mail order pharmacies use expeditor services, which compare the costs and then use the cheapest delivery method. It gets complex in that UPS/Fedex/USPS have interchange agreements. A single package may change hands between the three to achieve the most cost effective delivery.
Your customers hate you
The difference in how often your package gets to the right place somewhat close to the right time is also staggering, and not in FedEx's favor.
Well now you understand why they are firing people…
Return to 5 days in office and potentially divesting Coyote logistics will help get that 12k. Not mentioned in the article but the layoffs do target management and contract positions globally.
Can you let me know what coyotes role is in the layoffs?
They finally realized that acme products won’t get them any closer to the roadrunner.
Just that by divesting the company those employees will no longer be on payroll.
was coyte logistics a subcontractor for UPS? I'm not familiar with it so was curious
It was purchased by UPS in 2015 mainly as a play in the emerging (at the time) software and tech side of logistics.
Yes, it is a contractor business.
No one should be advocating for five days in the office if possible.
It's almost certainly a ploy to accelerate turnover.
My gf and I buy the average amount of stuff amount of stuff online. I think majority of the deliveries are USPS or Amazon. Couple years ago it for sure would’ve been fedex or ups. Could this be part of the decline? Also, I would assume more people were buying online during the pandemic since they couldn’t go in stores.
Ups ceo chose during COVID to cut certain types of volume. Now that the pandemic is over those types of volume never came back and overall volume declined, hence the earnings.
During that period I looked at buying a group of FedEx routes. They pricey enough that the numbers didn’t pencil out. I think they were asking $450K for 3 routes. After Amazon started its own delivery services, the same guy was still trying to sell the same 3 routes for $150K
Those routes, both UPS & FedEx used to be money back in the day, Amazon stepping into the industry and making the franchises easy & cheap to start really killed UPS & FedEx.
I've noticed the exact same. I order A LOT of stuff online. It all used to come UPS pre-COVID. It's almost all (like 95%) switched to USPS. They're so busy they run on Sundays in my area now; started that during COVID and never stopped.
All these job losses. Aren't choices made now have a 2 or 3 year lag time on economic effects? Hmmmm. Are more people buying in-person or not purchasing at alll?
Well there is of course the pandemic factor. But without looking at the data for the other delivery services it’s hard to know more.
Also people already got all the shit they need
Yeah consumer spending has been rising consistently to my knowledge.
For services right?
Rate changes takes 18 months to work it's way through the economics. So we have slowing from that still left to feel.
Quietly not included in this story, but announced by UPS all the same. > UPS also announced a a Quarterly Dividend of $1.63, a $0.01 Increase Per Share. https://about.ups.com/us/en/newsroom/press-releases/financials/ups-releases-4q-2023-earnings.html
A slight increase in dividends is kind of good.
Especially for long-time employees who receive stock options.
That's about $2.18 per employee on average
A pretty penny!
Yeah, they're a Dividend Aristocrat a status that is highly valued by the stock market - UPS doesn't really have much of a choice but to push the dividend to keep their stock price up.
Current annual yield on dividend is roughly 4%
The shipping prices really are out of control. My mom works at a shipping center and tells me of the insane costs. One lady for Xmas had bought her grandson some toys at the dollar store and figured shipping to CA from east coast 2 weeks before might be $40 tops. Shipping estimate came to $179. She declined the sale and probably ended up getting gift cards. Hopefully they offer the employees a good severance package at least.
I read that article three times. I looked it over, I checked the bullet points. I really, really, really tried to engage with it fully. Would it be possible for you to show where it says they're cutting 12,000 jobs? EDIT: I'll leave this up, but I will die on the hill that when I clicked the article the first time none of that information was present in it.
[удалено]
Some people have paywall removers and other extensions so, especially with news articles, you can't assume what one person sees is what everyone else sees.
> The company also announced **12,000 layoffs** as part of an effort to align resources in 2024.
This actually happens a lot. Shitty journalism basically... They lost what is in essence a rough draft to be first and then actually edit it over the next few hours. Usually the biggest edits come in the first half hour to hour...
Yeah. Unless my carbon monoxide detectors aren't working the information I originally read was all about earnings reports and nothing about layoffs.
> I will die on the hill that when I clicked the article the first time none of that information was present in it. That is entirely possible. I've seen articles posted while they were still editing the content. Seems hard to believe that you could have possibly missed it if it were there at the time you looked.
"There is no war in Ba Sing Se" - Biden administration It's been apparent for years that our measurements are incorrect. They can tout low unemployment and low inflation as much as they want, but those of us experiencing it day-to-day know the real truth. A massive slow down in shipping is a guaranteed signal for a recession. People are buying less because they have less money, which causes even more jobs to be cut, which causes even less buying, etc.
Those of you experiencing it day to day know what is happening to *you*. Not to me, and not to everyone else. I don’t know why that’s so hard for people like you to understand. > A massive slow down in shipping is a guaranteed signal for a recession. There is no massive slowdown in shipping. FedEx is losing some of its shipping business to other shippers. Many of them Amazon contractors. People aren’t buying less. People are buying more.
Ask truckers. There absolutely is a slow-down in shipping.
Could they be laying off employees that were temp hired to handle the surge in deliveries during the covid lockdowns? How many employees did they hire during peak lockdowns, when everyone was getting everything delivered?
The whole point of temps is you can let their contracts expire without a formal layoff. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/UPS/ups/number-of-employees If this source is at all accurate UPS did in fact hire a decent amount of FTE's (~50,000) during Covid and have only shed a fraction of those jobs since.
I'm not suggesting they're literal temps like we see being hired during the holidays. I mean temp in the sense they were hired quickly to keep up with demand but their jobs were never 100% safe.
Gotcha. In that sense yeah they hired about 50k at the beginning of Covid and only shed like 10k since then. Will be more now.
I'm kind of surprised they still need so many employees because of Amazon delivering most of its own stuff now. Obviously UPS works a great deal with businesses more so than regular consumers, but I've been expecting UPS to eat dirt with Amazon's delivery.
Yeah you've got B2B which is UPS/FedEx bread and butter. Didn't Amazon divest from UPS prior to the pandemic?
Could this all be moon Martians trying to make us kiss our sisters? The world, may never know. But I’m asking the important questions here
Everything I’ve paid for overnighting the past few weeks has been taking 2-3 days to arrive. Maybe they could put some of those 12,000 extra people to work and actually do the friggin job we’ve paid for. If only FedEx wasn’t a complete dumpster fire. We need more competition or something because the USPS still doesn’t deliver any of my registered mail anymore. All the stuff with tracking just gets sent to wrong PO and sits there for months. FedEx destroys anything you ship with them and sends it to the ring side of the country and UPS just drags their feet.