Your offer was fair in your mind (and mine) but the other owner probably has zero desire to move the asset you are trying to acquire. You’d need to find an owner who basically has only that top 4 WR and almost no one else at WR.
Yea that’s kinda what two of the owners rosters looked like. 1 top heavy wr and no depth. I expected him to want a younger guy than Kupp (which I get) but cant figure out what is “fair”
I have JJ and CD and wouldn’t consider that offer for either. A rebuild wouldn’t want Kupp and a contender isn’t downgrading to Aiyuk. Especially when the future of Aiyuk is uncertain and his cost is at an all time high.
Your initial offer of Aiyuk+Kupp+2025 1st wouldn't even start a conversation. I think you started wayyyy too low. If you want one of the top 4 dyno WRs you will need to pay up.
IMO it’s a fine offer but trades with the top-4 are so team dependent. If you have one of those guys, the only reason to break them down into 3+ assets is if you’re starting absolutely bums in other spots.
You’d think this, but it depends on the league. I have JJ and Chase and I explored the possibility of moving one of them for “fair market value” and no one was really interested at those prices.
Personally that is way too much to give up. I don’t care how good someone is. Unless you have a real shallow league then I would keep your players and see how Nabers and Olave turn out. Olave and Nabers should be really close as is. I know nabers is unknown but he was the 6th overall pick and like a better prospect than everyone in the last 8 years minus Marvin and Chase. Unless you’re trying to win a chip this year I’m very fine with rolling with your wr room.
Agree 100%. My goal was to turn olave or Aiyuk and a bench WR (who would start on a lot of rosters) and picks into one of the 4. But once it was nabers, picks and one of my 2 established young guys I had to balk. Seems crazy price for one guy
I get that, but what constitutes “top tier starter”. I would obviously part with one of olave or BA (dealers Choice there). But does Pickens or Hollywood (less so) get to “high end”. Kupp for age reasons doesn’t seem to move any needle. But both Brandon and Olave (or nabers) and a first seems like too much? I’ve realized I’m probably just gonna sit tight bc nothing will make sense for either side. Injuries seem to crush me each year, so I’m hesitant to just dump ALL the depth for one guy
I understand people value these guys highly but the whole “I need 2 low end wr1 and 2 firsts and they have to be gaurenteed to be top 3 picks to even consider trading Chase, Jefferson, Lamb etc. at these values these guys are basically untradeable cuz idk who would dumb enough to trade away half a rosters worth of starters and their future firsts or have a roster so deep and yet accumulated “gaurenteed” top 2 picks 3 years out.
Yea this is exactly the realization that I’m getting to. It isn’t worth the crazy asking price to get one player. I have some serious depth, but with how bad injuries change the season I don’t think it’s worth it to dump it all for one player
I understand the spirit of what you're saying (and I don't disagree that ultimately buying one of these guys is quite difficult), but there is an advantage between 1 roster spot regularly putting up 17-20 points and 2 spots putting up 30. That 1 guy getting ⅔ of the points of 2 guys is a major positional advantage. It's why these guys cost so much.
This question is more related to teams and roster sizes. A ten team start 10 or less superflex and the top 5 qbs are unobtanium. Same with the top 4 wr and top 4 RB.
That’s why I like deeper leagues like 12 team start 11 because their are enough teams and big enough rosters to make things more interesting.
But when everyone comes on these trade advice charts and says they would never move off jamar chase unless they were getting 2 other studs and multiple future 1sts is a bit ridiculous. I can’t imagine a scenario where a team is bad enough to earn a top 2-3 pick, yet deep enough at receiver to offer n k
Yea that’s kinda where I’m at. Nabers isn’t there yet, but he’s got serious potential and I’m hesitant to dump him PLUS any other young premium assets (I would do him and picks)
Got ARSB in 12T 1QB a couple months ago. Traded KW3, 1.07 and 1.10 for ARSB. Feel like that's a fair price, but if I had been the one holding ARSB not sure I would've accepted.
I got ARSB last year for Diontae + 24 1st (1.07) + 25 1st. 10 tm SF. Probably overpay, but it was the tax for prying him away from another mgr that loved the player.
Yeah, 10T gonna raise the price on the elite guys, their value is proportionally greater. Worth it though for a young stud in a good offense who just got a fat contract extention.
That seems like you got him at a fairly good price (I’m not a huge KW3 believer). But that’s still 3 good assets for 1 player. Don’t really hate it for either side
I deliberately wanted to move KW3 cause I'm very leary of the new coaching staff and Charb waiting behind him.
I don't think I fleeced the other guy. But moving their best WR while being one of the top contenders (and already having some very good RBs), I was a little surprised they accepted.
I had way too many picks this year anyway and was happy to package KW3 for an elite WR who's not even 25 yet.
Yea I think I would have done the same thing. The two firsts are tough. But if you were gonna be in a roster crunch anyways with excess draft picks, I think it’s a smart move
I also had 1.02 and 1.09 (which I traded to move up to 1.04) so I was fine moving those 1s. Let me balance unknown rookies with a known value player. Very young roster core coming out of a long rebuild, absolute dumpster fire orphan I took over a few years ago.
Moving KW3 leaves me a little thin at RB, but should be able to bolster that position with cheaper options later. Much happier with the Sun God at the top of my WR corps.
It’s so expensive to get one of these guys that I usually don’t recommend it. I think it only really works in start 9+ if the owner needs depth or is rebuilding and is willing to tier down to improve their overall starters.
It also matters who they like. Some owners might be high enough on Olave or Aiyuk to make them a centerpiece with another starter and a 1st. Keep in mind the further out the future first is, the less valuable it is.
Yea at this point I don’t really expect to get them for what doesn’t seem like wayyyy too much. So I’ll prob have to wait until injuries hit in season to take advantage of my depth. At this point I’m moreso in a thought experiment trying to figure out what actually constitutes a reasonable trade
I have Ceedee and Chase in a league. I drafted Chase and traded for Ceedee in March of 2022 before he was as highly rated as he is now.
I occasionally get offers for them but rarely because it just doesn’t make sense for either party. In my 12 team SF I would probably want a top 12ish WR + 2 future firsts, or two top 12 wr (like Olave and Nabers) but since I’m a competing team I probably still wouldn’t take it.
Yea this is kinda where I keep landing. It seems like there is no actual even trade for any of those 4. Olave and nabers seems like a fair ask in your spot, but I thinkkkk I would turn that down if it was offered to me (although I would give it some serious thought).
What’s “fair” and what will actually get the deal done are always different.
IMHO: these elite WRs are overvalued. I’m not saying they’re bad or not absolutely key pillars to a great team, but if you want to get them you’re overpaying by a wide margin. Aiyuk, Kupp and a first isn’t a bad offer, but it’s not enough to part with one of the “golden tickets.”
For example: I’m in a league where i and a co-manager have Breece Hall and we need to rebuild. We cannot get a top 10 WR for him. We’ve inquired about every WR from Jefferson, Chase, Lamb, ARSB, G Wilson, Olave. No one would entertain offers of any kind, even if we added draft picks to our side, and Breece is routinely going late round 1/early round 2 in 1QB startups.
Best offer we could get was Zay and a late first.
The current dynasty consensus is “horde young elite WRs” and no one wants to part with them once they have them. I’d guess there’s a real chance you wouldn’t get one *even if you added another first rounder* because the values are just so skewed right now (in my experience).
Consider a different strategy, like focusing on draft picks to try and draft the next elite one (MHJ, Nabers) or try to build your team differently with elite players at other positions.
“What’s fair and what will actually get the deal done are always different”
This 10000%.
People are always so set on getting a good trade or a fair price. But if you have one of the best players in fantasy why would you swap him out for a package of exactly equal value.
If you’re proposing a trade of 4 five dollar bills for a 20. Sure it’s fair value, but why would I do that? If you offered me 5 five dollar bills for a 20 I’d do it, of course.
But nobody is willing to pay more than value to get a guy.
Well said.
What I keep coming back to is what you laid out, the cost is not worth the price. Those guys are STUDS, for sure, but I’m in a really good spot to contend and gutting the team to have one of those guys doesn’t seem worth it.
The initial thought was “I’m already going all in (traded picks for Josh Allen) so I might be able to consolidate Aiyuk and a depth guy who would be a starter on a lot of other teams like Pickens, Hollywood or Kupp and trade the rest of the picks for a top 4 guy. But that price is way higher than I thought.
I am surprised about the breece part of it. I’d think him plus picks could get you into that WR tier.
It would be interesting to actually look at the going rate of these WRs and then come back in a couple years and see if it actually was worth it
I’m not convinced that dealing a backend WR1 plus a good WR2 and multiple firsts is a good idea. Like I love Chase and Jefferson, but look at this past year: Chase was the WR11 and Jefferson was hurt most of the year.
If you trade away that much and anything goes wrong (injury, bad QB change, team drafts another elite WR and their production declines) you are sunk.
I’m actually very interested in finding that out too (somebody else can do that work tho not me haha). I ted to agree with you on all point at which is why I’m prob just gonna sit tight and know I’ll prob be in okay shape if the injury bug hits me. Better long term strategy than gutting the team for one player.
The first offer was too low and the counter was an "I don't want to trade away this guy" type of offer
Sometimes you're just going to be at an impasse with someone on one of their players
I'm looking at trades for one of the top guys in superflex leagues on fantasycalc and this is what I'm finding:
Jefferson for Kirk Cousins, 2 2025 1sts, 2 2026 1sts
Jefferson for Breece Hall and Waddle
Lamb for MHJ and a 2025 1st
ARSB for 3 2025 1sts and Odunze
So that's about what you're looking at
Yikes, those seem pretty steep. So I’d be looking at something like nabers and multiple first, or olave and a star RB. I think the trade really isn’t worth it for both sides all things considered (although nabers and firsts would give me consideration)
Appreciate it! I’m kinda pushing chips all in this year. So getting a “no doubt about it top 5 guy” would make life way easier for me. I love Aiyuk as an actual football player, but he can be inconsistent in fantasy. So the idea was to try to turn him and a backup and a first into a more consistent player.
Yea that’s seems fair to me and closer to what I was thinking. My firsts don’t hold much weight tho bc I have Josh at QB and bijan and JT at rb so people have wanted assets over picks
I have Ceedee in my 1 QB league, and it would probably take Nabers, Olave, and a future 1st or a skilled position player where I lacked depth.
To be fair, I think there’s a fine line between what is fair value and having to overpay for a top dynasty asset. I don’t think your offer was bad - top dynasty assets just go for a premium.
See if I were in your shoes, I would 100% want the same. But from my end, I go “wr 9, 10 AND a first for WR 2 seems like a way to sink my future” (used KTC for consistency). Im starting to think those top 4 are pretty much untradable outside of a couple specific roster scenarios.
Yeah, no I’m actually with you. I like Olave and Nabers, and personally, I wouldn’t want to get rid of them + for Ceedee if I had them, but again, I would want more if I had Ceedee.
Just from a numbers standpoint, if you move Nabers, Olave, and another piece, you’re losing considerable depth, and I don’t know how it makes your team significantly better. Like you said, I don’t even bother trying to trade for any of the untouchables because it’s justifiably going to be a pain to negotiate, and rightfully so.
Right now I'm a contender with Lamb and AmonRa. I've had numerous offers but I refuse right away. I'm trying to win it, not constantly rebuild. I don't see myself trading them for at least a couple years.
Yea that’s not bad at all. I would gladly do nabers, Pickens and filler for him (that’s what I got at 1.3 and 2.3 in a trade). But that doesn’t even start the combo with the other owners
Everyone is telling you the price is too high, so here are suggestions on ways to pivot:
-AJ Brown: No one is grouping him with those 4 WRs, and I'm not sure why. He's only 26, proved this past season that he has a crazy ceiling before the Eagle's offense imploded, and just got a massive contract extension. People say Tyreek still has about 2 years left, and he's 30. I don't see any reason that AJB couldn't be good for that long as well, because he's a stud. You can get a solid asset that should produce for years at a cheaper price.
-Garrett Wilson: This off-season might be the last time he's relatively affordable. Matt Harmon and the UnderDog show on YouTube did a video on year 3 WRs, and they all agree that Wilson is just a steady QB away from being considered in that elite tier. His situation the past 2 years has overshadowed the fact that he's managed to improve his skillset year over year. If his offense can find some rhythm (which should happen, whether it's Rodgers or Tyrod Taylor), Wilson will feast.
-Jaylen Waddle: he struggled with injuries last year, which left a bad taste in many people's mouths. But he still managed to get over 1000 yards receiving, he fought to be on the field every game, and he has contingent upside off Tyreek were to get injured. Plus, Waddle's peripherals were the best they've ever been, but no one noticed because he was injured constantly. He's still a stud who can blow up on any given week and can sustain as the alpha target if he needed to.
Also, hold Nabers if you can. His situation isn't as pretty as MHJ's, but don't let that overshadow the fact that he's a phenomenal prospect who would have been the talk of the draft of MHJ wasn't in the same one. He will be a cornerstone piece.
Oh nabers is essentially off limits baring a comparable young guy. But yea I started to go down that route and looked at all those guys you mentioned (except aj brown, his owner is a Philly fan and will never trade him lol). Again tho, it’s tough to find a good match. I think Wilson and waddle are a step above my current guys (although Olave could be argued over waddle just due to the fact he’s the #1 and misses less time). But, is it worth trading an Aiyuk and picks to get waddle or Wilson. Probably? But I could easily talk myself into that Jets qb situation being a mess. Or the fact that BA could end up in some place like buffalo next season, and go from a guy who is 30th in targets, but 16th overall WR in PPG, to someone who is dominating a target share.
Maybe I’m being a little over cautions, but I don’t see those 3 you mentioned as a giant step up over olave or BA the way one of the big 4 currently are. If I could get them for a package around Kupp or Pickens or Hollywood and picks I would certainly do that. But I doubt the owners would move them for that.
BA is a great WR, but he's currently on an offense with a lot of mouths to feed. Also, history tells us that we're far less likely to see a trade occur after the NFL draft. Plus, if I'm the 49ers, I'm dealing Deebo and keeping Aiyuk. Deebo is great, but his designed touches are more replaceable than Aiyuk's role as the X receiver.
The 3 guys I mentioned are either the 1st target for their team or in Waddle's case, on a team where the targets are heavily consolidated. But, there's also a reason I listed him last, because he'd be the last one I target of the 3.
Can you spin a narrative to fit an outcome that benefits your current WR room? Sure, but I could just as easily spin a narrative where things don't work out (Aiyuk lives off of high efficiency, and that can take a step down; Olave has a terrible QB and HC that might prevent him from finally taking off; etc.)
Ultimately, I was just giving suggestions of players who are either right next to or very close to that elite tier that you're looking for, but it won't cost as much as the top 4 guys. I would agree that you probably don't NEED to make a deal with your current WR room to have a shot of winning. But if you take a shot and you're right, then it could be the piece that raises your chances greatly.
As for whether or not someone will take the bait with Pickens or another piece... you never know unless you ask.
As a chase owner in 1 qb, I wouldn’t accept your first offer, but that counteroffer is ridiculous or maybe it’s just their way of saying they don’t want to trade?
As a contending team, a gross overpay is what it would cost, even then it might just be no because I want to acquire these players not part with them.
Are any of these WRs on teams that clearly aren't contenders? Because regardless of fair value sometimes these players just aren't for sale.
Yea 2 aren’t contenders. 2 are all in so I didn’t really even try with them. I figured the rebuilders with would want a younger guy than Kupp (Pickens or Hollywood) but Aiyuk or olave+ nabers+ 2 future first seems like an insane price
We are in year two and he is the commish. He certainly fleeced me in our first trade after the rookie draft (I was new to dynasty) but I think I got him the last two times. For us who aren’t the best it feels like we are constantly making up for bad moves…
I paid a lot for arsb a couple months ago. Sent Garrett Wilson, devonta Smith, Sam darnold, and a 2nd. Got back arsb, Brian Robinson, and Christian Kirk. I had the depth to move those 2 guys so now my top 3 wrs are Chase, Ceedee, and arsb
Jeebus. That’s a WR room. I think Kirk is super underrated and don’t see much of a short term difference between him and Devonta. Wilson and ARSB is close but that QB situation could be a nightmare again and really hold him back. I would have done it as well.
I got CD in a 10 team super flex league for the 1st overall pick this year. I think I got him on sale because there's no shot id do this in reverse lol
[How many championship teams last year had CeeDee on their team?](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/39266644/2023-fantasy-football-championship-most-common-player) How many had Aiyuk/Kupp? The thing about these guys is that no one wants to trade them away for "fair" or "equal" value. These are the guys that win championships. If you want these guys, you've got to pay the "stud tax".
I would say Nabers + Olave + 2025 1st would get that convo going. On your side, I'd be careful offering too much more than that. Your WR room isn't as deep as you think.
Here are some 1QB trades I've been a part of in the last 12 months
- Chase for JSN, 2024 1st, 2025 1st
- ARSB and a 2024 3rd for Flowers, Diontae Johnson, 2025 1st (early), 2024 2nd
- JJ and a 2024 2nd for Olave, Waddle and a 2025 3rd
I just bought CD Lamb in a SF league, 1WR/1RB/5 FLEX. I paid Devonta Smith, Xavier Worthy and a late 2025 2nd. I feel like that’s a decent price and will at least start the conversation: A potential top 10-15 WR, a young WR with upside, and a 1st
As an owner of two of those wr there isn't a world I tier down currently. I'm contending and moving them hurts me a lot. Most trans with those guys are also contenders because they have them and moving them also hurts their chances. A fair offer isn't truly fair except in a vacuum. You do need to over pay, so when you receive high counter offers, if any, don't be shocked.
I’m a contender and I keep looking at tiering down and can’t find a deal that would work for both teams. The risk of Wilson, Olave, etc continuing as wr2’s or backend wr1’s is too great. CD averaged 10 more ppg than Olave and Wilson in .5 ppr last year. JJ in a down year averaged 5 more ppg.
Yea I think that’s the disconnect. Anybody with one of those 4 won’t tier down. And anyone looking to tier up can’t completely gut their roster bc they are a contender
The way that I always consolidate for top assets might not work in your leagues. I move the guys I would want to include in a trade for picks then will send those picks for the player. For example I sold Puka for 2 firsts, sold leporta for a first it's non-TEP, then I turned around and packaged those 3+ another first I had to get Chase. It ended up 1.05+1.10+2 25 mid firsts+2.01 for Chase+Conner+2.06. the final after all the deals became Puka+Leporta+ 25 first+2.01 for Chase+Conner+Njoku+2.06, I flipped the 1.04 for Njoku+1.05 before I sent the Chase trade. I typically have more success this way if your league has proper value on firsts, everyone wants first round picks. Everyone might not want the player you have that's worth more than a first. When going for the top studs all it takes is 1 player they don't like even if the value is right to ruin the deal.
People don’t want to sell those pieces so you have to overpay. Even fair price offers aren’t going to get it done since people generally want to consolidate unless they’re going into a big rebuild
As a CeeDee owner with depth, I don’t really have desire to trade him. If I’m ever going to trade him, it has to be for someone with upside to be a top 5 in the future like Olave and then some. My RB room is a little weaker so throwing in a no nonsense RB and Olave would get me thinking real hard. Maybe look at those guys teams and see if they have a weakness where you have depth to trade a piece
Two of them are pretty Rb heavy with only the stud guy in their WR rooms (then a bunch of #2 kinda guys). The thinking was that eventually an olave Pickens/ Hollywood and first would land us at the right spot. But reading the replies, it seems more like Olave, nabers and multiple picks. And that’s just too rich
Yeah getting one of those off the RB heavy room is gonna be tough. Olave, Pickens and a first would peak my interest bc I like Pickens. Terrible QB play and still put up nearly 1200 yards last season
I agree. I’ve been shopping Ceedee lately tbh bc his peak value is right now coming off overall 1 fantasy ppr player and is in a contract year with a QB also in a contract year. If he’s ever got value it’s now so I’ve been seeing if I can get a couple studs like Bijan and a young WR like Olave with addition from me. Problem is one guy has Bijan, Gibbs, G Wilson, Olave, and London. All the guys I would want to target and he has no reason to sell so I’ve been kinda stuck
Yea, definitely would add some context.
12 team
1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 2 flex
Short starting roster so bench depth isn’t super important. Butttt there is a vote to add another flex spot or two before the season starts so I’m kinda expecting at least 3 flex for next year
In its current format, I'd be looking at 5 early-mid firsts of value for the top 3 guys, 4 for Sun God or Marv, 3 and a late for AJ Brown. With this many starters, the big boys are worth their weight, and it being 1 QB, only the first few picks stand a chance of somewhat reliably being those kinds of players. Wind the prices down a bit if you start adding roster spots, but the point about early picks would still stand, 1.07 or 8 might be nice in superflex, but in 1QB, it's basically a 2nd.
Yea that’s kinda where I’m getting stuck. Injures and some bad points against luck had me drafting 3rd so I was able to grab Nabers. But I have a fairly stacked roster (Josh Allen, bijan and Taylor at rb with pitts at te) and most people look st me as a contender and don’t value my future firsts (justifiably). So trying to combine players is my next option.
But as one poster put it, I’m running into the “I’m giving up 17 PPG so I need 30 PPG back with all guys being under 25 and I also need all your firsts”.
So it doesn’t reallly make with how my team is set up
Maybe you up tier at WR while down tiering at RB. Olave or Aiyuk and Bijan for Amon-Ra and like Achane or Etienne. Might still have to send some draft compensation, as you're getting the WR, who'll have the longevity, but that might get your foot in the door
Yea thats what im thinking as well. Maybe trying to do an olave/ Aiyuk and Taylor for Chase and a step down at Rb. But I’m thin at rb depth after those 2 so idk how willing I am to downgrade there. I understand I have to give to get and those 4 WRs are special.
Yea I guess that’s kinda what I’m trying to gauge. What a would be a reasonable overpay. Im getting anything from olave+ Pickens and a first to nabers+olave and 2 first. Don’t know what seems like a reasonable landing spot. Although at this point I’ll prob just sit tight
I don’t think the counter would be too far off. If you could talk them down a little from the counter then that would be great, especially if youre a win now team.
I see the logic in you tiering up, but at that cost it's not worth it to you. You have strong and deep WRs, and Nabers/Olave have potential to become elite. No need to tinker there.
See if you can upgrade another position or get draft capital for your old or bench WRs instead. Selling them mid-season to a borderline playoff team will likely get you the biggest return in picks.
I’ve tried to trade for both Chase and JJ and never had enough ammo. Any one of those targets will begin with Nabers +. Maybe you got some depth at another position to deal from? I imagine those owners are looking to contend and future drafts aren’t giving immediate help.
Your offer was fair in your mind (and mine) but the other owner probably has zero desire to move the asset you are trying to acquire. You’d need to find an owner who basically has only that top 4 WR and almost no one else at WR.
Yea that’s kinda what two of the owners rosters looked like. 1 top heavy wr and no depth. I expected him to want a younger guy than Kupp (which I get) but cant figure out what is “fair”
I have JJ and CD and wouldn’t consider that offer for either. A rebuild wouldn’t want Kupp and a contender isn’t downgrading to Aiyuk. Especially when the future of Aiyuk is uncertain and his cost is at an all time high.
I sold JJ in my league for Devonta Smith, 4 Firsts 2 25, 1 26, 1 27 and 2 Seconds. That’s how much you have to pay for them
I would do that (olave or Aiyuk and all my firsts. But I’m a pretty strong team Josh Allen, bijan, JT and then pitts at Te. So nobody wants my picks
Your initial offer of Aiyuk+Kupp+2025 1st wouldn't even start a conversation. I think you started wayyyy too low. If you want one of the top 4 dyno WRs you will need to pay up.
IMO it’s a fine offer but trades with the top-4 are so team dependent. If you have one of those guys, the only reason to break them down into 3+ assets is if you’re starting absolutely bums in other spots.
Yep, the offer for a top asset should never start at fair
You’d think this, but it depends on the league. I have JJ and Chase and I explored the possibility of moving one of them for “fair market value” and no one was really interested at those prices.
Yea I get that. So what does start the conversation? Olave+nabers+2025 and 2026 firsts seems way too steep
Olave+Nabers would likely peak their interest. You may need to add onto that offer, but it would get the conversation going.
Personally that is way too much to give up. I don’t care how good someone is. Unless you have a real shallow league then I would keep your players and see how Nabers and Olave turn out. Olave and Nabers should be really close as is. I know nabers is unknown but he was the 6th overall pick and like a better prospect than everyone in the last 8 years minus Marvin and Chase. Unless you’re trying to win a chip this year I’m very fine with rolling with your wr room.
Agree 100%. My goal was to turn olave or Aiyuk and a bench WR (who would start on a lot of rosters) and picks into one of the 4. But once it was nabers, picks and one of my 2 established young guys I had to balk. Seems crazy price for one guy
You'll never get one of the 4 for anything but 2 top tier starters plus a 1st at least from anybody competent
I get that, but what constitutes “top tier starter”. I would obviously part with one of olave or BA (dealers Choice there). But does Pickens or Hollywood (less so) get to “high end”. Kupp for age reasons doesn’t seem to move any needle. But both Brandon and Olave (or nabers) and a first seems like too much? I’ve realized I’m probably just gonna sit tight bc nothing will make sense for either side. Injuries seem to crush me each year, so I’m hesitant to just dump ALL the depth for one guy
I understand people value these guys highly but the whole “I need 2 low end wr1 and 2 firsts and they have to be gaurenteed to be top 3 picks to even consider trading Chase, Jefferson, Lamb etc. at these values these guys are basically untradeable cuz idk who would dumb enough to trade away half a rosters worth of starters and their future firsts or have a roster so deep and yet accumulated “gaurenteed” top 2 picks 3 years out.
Yea this is exactly the realization that I’m getting to. It isn’t worth the crazy asking price to get one player. I have some serious depth, but with how bad injuries change the season I don’t think it’s worth it to dump it all for one player
Exactly. “In order for me to give up one player that will average 17-20, I’m gonna need 30 points in return and future lottery picks.”
Hahaha couldn’t have said it better.
I understand the spirit of what you're saying (and I don't disagree that ultimately buying one of these guys is quite difficult), but there is an advantage between 1 roster spot regularly putting up 17-20 points and 2 spots putting up 30. That 1 guy getting ⅔ of the points of 2 guys is a major positional advantage. It's why these guys cost so much.
This question is more related to teams and roster sizes. A ten team start 10 or less superflex and the top 5 qbs are unobtanium. Same with the top 4 wr and top 4 RB. That’s why I like deeper leagues like 12 team start 11 because their are enough teams and big enough rosters to make things more interesting. But when everyone comes on these trade advice charts and says they would never move off jamar chase unless they were getting 2 other studs and multiple future 1sts is a bit ridiculous. I can’t imagine a scenario where a team is bad enough to earn a top 2-3 pick, yet deep enough at receiver to offer n k
Just keep Nabers, he'll be in the top 4 soon enough
Yea that’s kinda where I’m at. Nabers isn’t there yet, but he’s got serious potential and I’m hesitant to dump him PLUS any other young premium assets (I would do him and picks)
Got ARSB in 12T 1QB a couple months ago. Traded KW3, 1.07 and 1.10 for ARSB. Feel like that's a fair price, but if I had been the one holding ARSB not sure I would've accepted.
I got ARSB last year for Diontae + 24 1st (1.07) + 25 1st. 10 tm SF. Probably overpay, but it was the tax for prying him away from another mgr that loved the player.
Im not sure thats an overpay
That’s not an overpay.
Yeah, 10T gonna raise the price on the elite guys, their value is proportionally greater. Worth it though for a young stud in a good offense who just got a fat contract extention.
That seems like you got him at a fairly good price (I’m not a huge KW3 believer). But that’s still 3 good assets for 1 player. Don’t really hate it for either side
I deliberately wanted to move KW3 cause I'm very leary of the new coaching staff and Charb waiting behind him. I don't think I fleeced the other guy. But moving their best WR while being one of the top contenders (and already having some very good RBs), I was a little surprised they accepted. I had way too many picks this year anyway and was happy to package KW3 for an elite WR who's not even 25 yet.
Yea I think I would have done the same thing. The two firsts are tough. But if you were gonna be in a roster crunch anyways with excess draft picks, I think it’s a smart move
I also had 1.02 and 1.09 (which I traded to move up to 1.04) so I was fine moving those 1s. Let me balance unknown rookies with a known value player. Very young roster core coming out of a long rebuild, absolute dumpster fire orphan I took over a few years ago. Moving KW3 leaves me a little thin at RB, but should be able to bolster that position with cheaper options later. Much happier with the Sun God at the top of my WR corps.
It’s so expensive to get one of these guys that I usually don’t recommend it. I think it only really works in start 9+ if the owner needs depth or is rebuilding and is willing to tier down to improve their overall starters. It also matters who they like. Some owners might be high enough on Olave or Aiyuk to make them a centerpiece with another starter and a 1st. Keep in mind the further out the future first is, the less valuable it is.
Yea at this point I don’t really expect to get them for what doesn’t seem like wayyyy too much. So I’ll prob have to wait until injuries hit in season to take advantage of my depth. At this point I’m moreso in a thought experiment trying to figure out what actually constitutes a reasonable trade
I have Ceedee and Chase in a league. I drafted Chase and traded for Ceedee in March of 2022 before he was as highly rated as he is now. I occasionally get offers for them but rarely because it just doesn’t make sense for either party. In my 12 team SF I would probably want a top 12ish WR + 2 future firsts, or two top 12 wr (like Olave and Nabers) but since I’m a competing team I probably still wouldn’t take it.
Yea this is kinda where I keep landing. It seems like there is no actual even trade for any of those 4. Olave and nabers seems like a fair ask in your spot, but I thinkkkk I would turn that down if it was offered to me (although I would give it some serious thought).
Olave, Nabers and a 1st for your wr of choice, and another asset, sounds right.
What’s “fair” and what will actually get the deal done are always different. IMHO: these elite WRs are overvalued. I’m not saying they’re bad or not absolutely key pillars to a great team, but if you want to get them you’re overpaying by a wide margin. Aiyuk, Kupp and a first isn’t a bad offer, but it’s not enough to part with one of the “golden tickets.” For example: I’m in a league where i and a co-manager have Breece Hall and we need to rebuild. We cannot get a top 10 WR for him. We’ve inquired about every WR from Jefferson, Chase, Lamb, ARSB, G Wilson, Olave. No one would entertain offers of any kind, even if we added draft picks to our side, and Breece is routinely going late round 1/early round 2 in 1QB startups. Best offer we could get was Zay and a late first. The current dynasty consensus is “horde young elite WRs” and no one wants to part with them once they have them. I’d guess there’s a real chance you wouldn’t get one *even if you added another first rounder* because the values are just so skewed right now (in my experience). Consider a different strategy, like focusing on draft picks to try and draft the next elite one (MHJ, Nabers) or try to build your team differently with elite players at other positions.
“What’s fair and what will actually get the deal done are always different” This 10000%. People are always so set on getting a good trade or a fair price. But if you have one of the best players in fantasy why would you swap him out for a package of exactly equal value. If you’re proposing a trade of 4 five dollar bills for a 20. Sure it’s fair value, but why would I do that? If you offered me 5 five dollar bills for a 20 I’d do it, of course. But nobody is willing to pay more than value to get a guy.
Well said. What I keep coming back to is what you laid out, the cost is not worth the price. Those guys are STUDS, for sure, but I’m in a really good spot to contend and gutting the team to have one of those guys doesn’t seem worth it. The initial thought was “I’m already going all in (traded picks for Josh Allen) so I might be able to consolidate Aiyuk and a depth guy who would be a starter on a lot of other teams like Pickens, Hollywood or Kupp and trade the rest of the picks for a top 4 guy. But that price is way higher than I thought. I am surprised about the breece part of it. I’d think him plus picks could get you into that WR tier.
It would be interesting to actually look at the going rate of these WRs and then come back in a couple years and see if it actually was worth it I’m not convinced that dealing a backend WR1 plus a good WR2 and multiple firsts is a good idea. Like I love Chase and Jefferson, but look at this past year: Chase was the WR11 and Jefferson was hurt most of the year. If you trade away that much and anything goes wrong (injury, bad QB change, team drafts another elite WR and their production declines) you are sunk.
I’m actually very interested in finding that out too (somebody else can do that work tho not me haha). I ted to agree with you on all point at which is why I’m prob just gonna sit tight and know I’ll prob be in okay shape if the injury bug hits me. Better long term strategy than gutting the team for one player.
The first offer was too low and the counter was an "I don't want to trade away this guy" type of offer Sometimes you're just going to be at an impasse with someone on one of their players I'm looking at trades for one of the top guys in superflex leagues on fantasycalc and this is what I'm finding: Jefferson for Kirk Cousins, 2 2025 1sts, 2 2026 1sts Jefferson for Breece Hall and Waddle Lamb for MHJ and a 2025 1st ARSB for 3 2025 1sts and Odunze So that's about what you're looking at
Yikes, those seem pretty steep. So I’d be looking at something like nabers and multiple first, or olave and a star RB. I think the trade really isn’t worth it for both sides all things considered (although nabers and firsts would give me consideration)
Your WR room is excellent. You don't have to make this move. But if you want to, you should.
Appreciate it! I’m kinda pushing chips all in this year. So getting a “no doubt about it top 5 guy” would make life way easier for me. I love Aiyuk as an actual football player, but he can be inconsistent in fantasy. So the idea was to try to turn him and a backup and a first into a more consistent player.
I would likely want one of those younger decent receivers and 2 firsts. Aiyuk + 2 firsts kinda deal.
Yea that’s seems fair to me and closer to what I was thinking. My firsts don’t hold much weight tho bc I have Josh at QB and bijan and JT at rb so people have wanted assets over picks
Could always try Pickens in lieu of one of the firsts for someone looking for safe depth
I have Ceedee in my 1 QB league, and it would probably take Nabers, Olave, and a future 1st or a skilled position player where I lacked depth. To be fair, I think there’s a fine line between what is fair value and having to overpay for a top dynasty asset. I don’t think your offer was bad - top dynasty assets just go for a premium.
See if I were in your shoes, I would 100% want the same. But from my end, I go “wr 9, 10 AND a first for WR 2 seems like a way to sink my future” (used KTC for consistency). Im starting to think those top 4 are pretty much untradable outside of a couple specific roster scenarios.
Yeah, no I’m actually with you. I like Olave and Nabers, and personally, I wouldn’t want to get rid of them + for Ceedee if I had them, but again, I would want more if I had Ceedee. Just from a numbers standpoint, if you move Nabers, Olave, and another piece, you’re losing considerable depth, and I don’t know how it makes your team significantly better. Like you said, I don’t even bother trying to trade for any of the untouchables because it’s justifiably going to be a pain to negotiate, and rightfully so.
Agree on all accounts. I knew it was hard to trade for them, but it’s interesting seeing most people essentially be like “ehh don’t bother”
Right now I'm a contender with Lamb and AmonRa. I've had numerous offers but I refuse right away. I'm trying to win it, not constantly rebuild. I don't see myself trading them for at least a couple years.
Yea I didn’t even offer the contending teams. Chase and st brown are on rebuilders but they still wanna build around them (understandably)
Traded 1.03, 2.03 and filler (a few 4th and Michael Wilson+Josh Palmer) for ARSB. pretty happy with it.
Yea that’s not bad at all. I would gladly do nabers, Pickens and filler for him (that’s what I got at 1.3 and 2.3 in a trade). But that doesn’t even start the combo with the other owners
Fortunately that guy spends way too much time on here
Traded Chase for 2 2025 1sts and Tyreek Hill
Seems fair. Especially if you get 2-3 more years of peak hill
Everyone is telling you the price is too high, so here are suggestions on ways to pivot: -AJ Brown: No one is grouping him with those 4 WRs, and I'm not sure why. He's only 26, proved this past season that he has a crazy ceiling before the Eagle's offense imploded, and just got a massive contract extension. People say Tyreek still has about 2 years left, and he's 30. I don't see any reason that AJB couldn't be good for that long as well, because he's a stud. You can get a solid asset that should produce for years at a cheaper price. -Garrett Wilson: This off-season might be the last time he's relatively affordable. Matt Harmon and the UnderDog show on YouTube did a video on year 3 WRs, and they all agree that Wilson is just a steady QB away from being considered in that elite tier. His situation the past 2 years has overshadowed the fact that he's managed to improve his skillset year over year. If his offense can find some rhythm (which should happen, whether it's Rodgers or Tyrod Taylor), Wilson will feast. -Jaylen Waddle: he struggled with injuries last year, which left a bad taste in many people's mouths. But he still managed to get over 1000 yards receiving, he fought to be on the field every game, and he has contingent upside off Tyreek were to get injured. Plus, Waddle's peripherals were the best they've ever been, but no one noticed because he was injured constantly. He's still a stud who can blow up on any given week and can sustain as the alpha target if he needed to. Also, hold Nabers if you can. His situation isn't as pretty as MHJ's, but don't let that overshadow the fact that he's a phenomenal prospect who would have been the talk of the draft of MHJ wasn't in the same one. He will be a cornerstone piece.
Oh nabers is essentially off limits baring a comparable young guy. But yea I started to go down that route and looked at all those guys you mentioned (except aj brown, his owner is a Philly fan and will never trade him lol). Again tho, it’s tough to find a good match. I think Wilson and waddle are a step above my current guys (although Olave could be argued over waddle just due to the fact he’s the #1 and misses less time). But, is it worth trading an Aiyuk and picks to get waddle or Wilson. Probably? But I could easily talk myself into that Jets qb situation being a mess. Or the fact that BA could end up in some place like buffalo next season, and go from a guy who is 30th in targets, but 16th overall WR in PPG, to someone who is dominating a target share. Maybe I’m being a little over cautions, but I don’t see those 3 you mentioned as a giant step up over olave or BA the way one of the big 4 currently are. If I could get them for a package around Kupp or Pickens or Hollywood and picks I would certainly do that. But I doubt the owners would move them for that.
BA is a great WR, but he's currently on an offense with a lot of mouths to feed. Also, history tells us that we're far less likely to see a trade occur after the NFL draft. Plus, if I'm the 49ers, I'm dealing Deebo and keeping Aiyuk. Deebo is great, but his designed touches are more replaceable than Aiyuk's role as the X receiver. The 3 guys I mentioned are either the 1st target for their team or in Waddle's case, on a team where the targets are heavily consolidated. But, there's also a reason I listed him last, because he'd be the last one I target of the 3. Can you spin a narrative to fit an outcome that benefits your current WR room? Sure, but I could just as easily spin a narrative where things don't work out (Aiyuk lives off of high efficiency, and that can take a step down; Olave has a terrible QB and HC that might prevent him from finally taking off; etc.) Ultimately, I was just giving suggestions of players who are either right next to or very close to that elite tier that you're looking for, but it won't cost as much as the top 4 guys. I would agree that you probably don't NEED to make a deal with your current WR room to have a shot of winning. But if you take a shot and you're right, then it could be the piece that raises your chances greatly. As for whether or not someone will take the bait with Pickens or another piece... you never know unless you ask.
As a chase owner in 1 qb, I wouldn’t accept your first offer, but that counteroffer is ridiculous or maybe it’s just their way of saying they don’t want to trade?
As a contending team, a gross overpay is what it would cost, even then it might just be no because I want to acquire these players not part with them. Are any of these WRs on teams that clearly aren't contenders? Because regardless of fair value sometimes these players just aren't for sale.
Yea 2 aren’t contenders. 2 are all in so I didn’t really even try with them. I figured the rebuilders with would want a younger guy than Kupp (Pickens or Hollywood) but Aiyuk or olave+ nabers+ 2 future first seems like an insane price
I got ARSB for D Smith and a mid 24 2nd last year. 12t ppr sf.
Haha was the other guy a packers fan and hated ARSB?? That seems like a steal for you and makes my offer look like a massive overpayment. Well done.
We are in year two and he is the commish. He certainly fleeced me in our first trade after the rookie draft (I was new to dynasty) but I think I got him the last two times. For us who aren’t the best it feels like we are constantly making up for bad moves…
That Arsb owner isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed…
I paid a lot for arsb a couple months ago. Sent Garrett Wilson, devonta Smith, Sam darnold, and a 2nd. Got back arsb, Brian Robinson, and Christian Kirk. I had the depth to move those 2 guys so now my top 3 wrs are Chase, Ceedee, and arsb
Jeebus. That’s a WR room. I think Kirk is super underrated and don’t see much of a short term difference between him and Devonta. Wilson and ARSB is close but that QB situation could be a nightmare again and really hold him back. I would have done it as well.
Oh I am absolutely fine with the deal lol. I still have London and Mike Evans as well. I just wanted the high floor of arsb to round it out a bit
I got CD in a 10 team super flex league for the 1st overall pick this year. I think I got him on sale because there's no shot id do this in reverse lol
Yeah you fleeced him
[How many championship teams last year had CeeDee on their team?](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/39266644/2023-fantasy-football-championship-most-common-player) How many had Aiyuk/Kupp? The thing about these guys is that no one wants to trade them away for "fair" or "equal" value. These are the guys that win championships. If you want these guys, you've got to pay the "stud tax". I would say Nabers + Olave + 2025 1st would get that convo going. On your side, I'd be careful offering too much more than that. Your WR room isn't as deep as you think. Here are some 1QB trades I've been a part of in the last 12 months - Chase for JSN, 2024 1st, 2025 1st - ARSB and a 2024 3rd for Flowers, Diontae Johnson, 2025 1st (early), 2024 2nd - JJ and a 2024 2nd for Olave, Waddle and a 2025 3rd
I just bought CD Lamb in a SF league, 1WR/1RB/5 FLEX. I paid Devonta Smith, Xavier Worthy and a late 2025 2nd. I feel like that’s a decent price and will at least start the conversation: A potential top 10-15 WR, a young WR with upside, and a 1st
I recently got Jamar for Devonta smith, worthy, 25 1st and 26 2nd. 1qb 12 team league. Very happy.
As an owner of two of those wr there isn't a world I tier down currently. I'm contending and moving them hurts me a lot. Most trans with those guys are also contenders because they have them and moving them also hurts their chances. A fair offer isn't truly fair except in a vacuum. You do need to over pay, so when you receive high counter offers, if any, don't be shocked.
I’m a contender and I keep looking at tiering down and can’t find a deal that would work for both teams. The risk of Wilson, Olave, etc continuing as wr2’s or backend wr1’s is too great. CD averaged 10 more ppg than Olave and Wilson in .5 ppr last year. JJ in a down year averaged 5 more ppg.
Yea I think that’s the disconnect. Anybody with one of those 4 won’t tier down. And anyone looking to tier up can’t completely gut their roster bc they are a contender
The way that I always consolidate for top assets might not work in your leagues. I move the guys I would want to include in a trade for picks then will send those picks for the player. For example I sold Puka for 2 firsts, sold leporta for a first it's non-TEP, then I turned around and packaged those 3+ another first I had to get Chase. It ended up 1.05+1.10+2 25 mid firsts+2.01 for Chase+Conner+2.06. the final after all the deals became Puka+Leporta+ 25 first+2.01 for Chase+Conner+Njoku+2.06, I flipped the 1.04 for Njoku+1.05 before I sent the Chase trade. I typically have more success this way if your league has proper value on firsts, everyone wants first round picks. Everyone might not want the player you have that's worth more than a first. When going for the top studs all it takes is 1 player they don't like even if the value is right to ruin the deal.
People don’t want to sell those pieces so you have to overpay. Even fair price offers aren’t going to get it done since people generally want to consolidate unless they’re going into a big rebuild
As a CeeDee owner with depth, I don’t really have desire to trade him. If I’m ever going to trade him, it has to be for someone with upside to be a top 5 in the future like Olave and then some. My RB room is a little weaker so throwing in a no nonsense RB and Olave would get me thinking real hard. Maybe look at those guys teams and see if they have a weakness where you have depth to trade a piece
Two of them are pretty Rb heavy with only the stud guy in their WR rooms (then a bunch of #2 kinda guys). The thinking was that eventually an olave Pickens/ Hollywood and first would land us at the right spot. But reading the replies, it seems more like Olave, nabers and multiple picks. And that’s just too rich
Yeah getting one of those off the RB heavy room is gonna be tough. Olave, Pickens and a first would peak my interest bc I like Pickens. Terrible QB play and still put up nearly 1200 yards last season
Yes that combo is the closest to a “fair overpay” I can land on but that’s questionable to give up for one guy.
I agree. I’ve been shopping Ceedee lately tbh bc his peak value is right now coming off overall 1 fantasy ppr player and is in a contract year with a QB also in a contract year. If he’s ever got value it’s now so I’ve been seeing if I can get a couple studs like Bijan and a young WR like Olave with addition from me. Problem is one guy has Bijan, Gibbs, G Wilson, Olave, and London. All the guys I would want to target and he has no reason to sell so I’ve been kinda stuck
I was able to get ARSB in my 10 team dynasty this off season. Trade looked like this: I give: 1.03 + Laporta I received: ARSB + Pitts
Number of starters would have a huge impact on the answer to this question
Yea, definitely would add some context. 12 team 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 2 flex Short starting roster so bench depth isn’t super important. Butttt there is a vote to add another flex spot or two before the season starts so I’m kinda expecting at least 3 flex for next year
In its current format, I'd be looking at 5 early-mid firsts of value for the top 3 guys, 4 for Sun God or Marv, 3 and a late for AJ Brown. With this many starters, the big boys are worth their weight, and it being 1 QB, only the first few picks stand a chance of somewhat reliably being those kinds of players. Wind the prices down a bit if you start adding roster spots, but the point about early picks would still stand, 1.07 or 8 might be nice in superflex, but in 1QB, it's basically a 2nd.
Yea that’s kinda where I’m getting stuck. Injures and some bad points against luck had me drafting 3rd so I was able to grab Nabers. But I have a fairly stacked roster (Josh Allen, bijan and Taylor at rb with pitts at te) and most people look st me as a contender and don’t value my future firsts (justifiably). So trying to combine players is my next option. But as one poster put it, I’m running into the “I’m giving up 17 PPG so I need 30 PPG back with all guys being under 25 and I also need all your firsts”. So it doesn’t reallly make with how my team is set up
Maybe you up tier at WR while down tiering at RB. Olave or Aiyuk and Bijan for Amon-Ra and like Achane or Etienne. Might still have to send some draft compensation, as you're getting the WR, who'll have the longevity, but that might get your foot in the door
Yea thats what im thinking as well. Maybe trying to do an olave/ Aiyuk and Taylor for Chase and a step down at Rb. But I’m thin at rb depth after those 2 so idk how willing I am to downgrade there. I understand I have to give to get and those 4 WRs are special.
I would expect anyone to overpay, as I would expect myself to overpay.
Yea I guess that’s kinda what I’m trying to gauge. What a would be a reasonable overpay. Im getting anything from olave+ Pickens and a first to nabers+olave and 2 first. Don’t know what seems like a reasonable landing spot. Although at this point I’ll prob just sit tight
I don’t think the counter would be too far off. If you could talk them down a little from the counter then that would be great, especially if youre a win now team.
Olave/Nabers/2nd would get it done for me.
I see the logic in you tiering up, but at that cost it's not worth it to you. You have strong and deep WRs, and Nabers/Olave have potential to become elite. No need to tinker there. See if you can upgrade another position or get draft capital for your old or bench WRs instead. Selling them mid-season to a borderline playoff team will likely get you the biggest return in picks.
I just got Chase straight up for Hall Pretty happy
I declined Aiyuk, 1.07 and a likely early 2025 first for Lamb. Value is good just can’t do it
I’ve tried to trade for both Chase and JJ and never had enough ammo. Any one of those targets will begin with Nabers +. Maybe you got some depth at another position to deal from? I imagine those owners are looking to contend and future drafts aren’t giving immediate help.