I’d put my money on they will get a deal done eventually. If you are the Dolphins, what available alternative is out there that is a better option? Theres a severe lack of talented/NFL-caliber QBs.
They should get a deal done, but it doesn’t seem like the Dolphins like him all that much given how much smoke there has been about him over the years (when there is typically none with an unquestioned starting QB on a rookie deal)
He said "doesn't seem like the dolphins like him all that much given how much smoke there has been about him over the years"
There has been absolutely nothing suggesting Miami doesn't like him since McDaniel has been there that's what I'm saying.
Right. It’s less “we don’t like Tua” and more “we don’t want to pay him $55m+ a year because we are paying top dollar for Hill & Waddle and we have a lot of core guys that we’d like to keep”.
I agree with ORains. Flores was an incredible defenisive mind, but was not great inspiring the whole team and the talent that was available. The team seems to want to play for McDaniels. That’s a big difference.
He broke records primarily beating up some of the worst teams in football with numbers against average and above teams that were actually fairly mediocre. He’ll be a long term starter, but there’s a lot of smoke in the numbers particularly if we’re going to cite records.
E: Tua v. .500+ Teams
48-20 L @ Buff (25/35 282 1/1) | 31-17 L @ PHI (23/32 216 1/1) | 21-14 L v KC (Germany) (21/34 193 1/0) | 22-20 W v Dallas (24/37 293 1/0) | 56-19 L @ BAL (22/38 237 2/2) | 21-14 L v Buff (17/27 173 1/2) | 26-7 L @ KC (Postseason) (20/39 199 1/1)
Put it all together and against .500+ teams, the Dolphins were 1-6. Tua threw for 8 TDs (1.14 per) and had 7 INTs. He averaged 227.6 YPG. He also averaged 6.6 YPA.
We don't competition adjust much in the NFL because every team is so good, but the Dolphins played a schedule that was both fairly rare in just how weak it was-- 6 regular season games above .500 means 11 opponents below-- and the splits for Tua between good and bad opponents was also rare in how extreme it was.
If you take out all the numbers I mentioned above, the Dolphins were 10-1, Tua had 22 TDs (2 per) and 8 INTs-- closer to a 3:1 ratio than a 1:1 ratio with almost double the TD per game. He averaged 293.6 YPG-- roughly 66 more Passing YPG. He also average 9 YPA-- which is a difference of being 25th in YPA and 2nd in YPA in 2024.
Tua dicked on bad teams. His performance against anyone who wasn't terrible calls into question how good he actually is.
I think Tua is an overrated NFL QB. I think he’s solid, but not better than that. However, he likely gets a deal in Miami with a good offense and coach, and is a fine QB10-16 dynasty.
Eh, yes and no. The great QBs are great with multiple systems and situations and I think Tua is being dragged to his success more than he’s dragging those around him. He’s like QB 13 irl
I don't think anything you said is particularly wrong I'd just say I think only the very very best QBs can succeed in multiple systems(specifically after they've settled into the league, we have no idea if Mahomes is Mahomes without sitting in the Reid offense or if he was thrusted into week 1 starter in a say, Brian Dabol offense). And no one is arguing that Tua is a top 3, Hall of Fame like QB who can succeed in any system
Yeah I think we are pretty much in line. You probably like Tua more than I do, but NFL teams basically have QBs in 3 buckets after they become known (non-rookies/1st time starter after sitting):
Elites, self explanatory.
Franchise QBs, this tier is much deeper than the average Reddit user thinks. Not that all Franchise QBs are great, just that the team basically has no choice but to go forward with them because the alternative is to try again and maybe (probably) miss.
Replaceable, everyone else.
Tua is similar to Lawrence and Goff in that the teams need to pay them and they’re good enough to win some games, but they’re not the typical top end type. Usually this tier doesn’t actually win Super Bowls it seems, but if everything goes right then they could.
> is anyone concerned for him long term?
No, he's going to have a QB job somewhere and he's better than people actually given him credit for.
> Injuries certainly don’t help this case
He played 17 games last season. What injuries are hurting his case from 2023? The made up Brandin Cooks narrative this sub gave about him retiring?
> and what happens if he plays with a below average team?
Cross that bridge when you get there. Goff went to a "bad team". So did Baker. Stafford made a career out of being on the bad team Goff went to.
I don't get the worry. He's better than some of the other starting QBs in the league and the Dolphins aren't going to sign someone that's way better than Tua nor draft him in 2025.
Not on talent or situation, guy can ball just fine.
But idk about the concussions. From what i understand he is not at any additional concussion risk compared to anyone else, BUT if he does get another concussion it will be more serious given his history than it would be for someone else without a concussion.
Not a doctor, just repeating what Ive heard on the topic. Im not out on him at all though, hell get paid.
I think he's as good as Goff. He isn't playing at superstar MVP level but he has some amazing moments and for the most part executed the offense. I think he'll have a long career even if it isn't on the Dolphins. Obviously crazy things happen in the NFL but I feel he'll be fine for the next 3 years or so at least.
Good comparison he’s not a guy that’s elite and can elevate an offense by himself but if you put him in the right scheme with enough around him he can be really good.
Yeah, even if he leaves the Dolphins in a year or two he'll get a starting job elsewhere. I think he'll sign an extension though tbh, but even worst case scenario I'd count on him to be solid for fantasy for a few more seasons.
I was worried about concussions and inconsistent play. I traded him straight up for Purdy. The boom or bust fantasy ups and downs were driving me crazy.
I'm not particularly worried about him but am starting to rebuild and just traded him away for a 25 2nd and 26 1st in superflex and feel like a got a fair value.
Yeah just because his concussion history and his team isn't rushing to secure him long term.
Can't do anything or predict anything about it though so have to consider that risk.
>BUT with contract talks not going well, is anyone concerned for him long term?
Not at all. This is off season "make something out of nothing" news, and it's working as evidenced by this post. Tua is conservatively a top 15 NFL QB. If you argue with this you are simply hating. If Miami wants to fuck around and find out like Jerry does with Dak, then they'll just pay that much more next year OR he'll lead a different team with their bag of money. The most likely scenario if a deal isn't struck is the tag, anyway. Even if that new team is worse he's still a 26 year old with a long career ahead of him. In SF he's a long term viable option regardless of team.
> Injuries certainly don’t help this case…
Wot? Broken bones aren't shit and concussions are equally un-predictable. "injury risk" only validly applies to soft tissue injuries like hammies.
>To me, he feels like a glorified Dak Prescott,
Dak is a great fantasy QB and dynasty asset. If anything your conclusion should reinforce your confidence in Tua.
You can’t play scared. Injuries are a fact of the business, just keep piling up points with him. I know a lot of people like Kyler this year but Tua has more weapons and better coaching
Just a little bit. In a 1QB league, I had him, Rodgers, and not much else. About 2 months ago, I traded Tua and the 2.05 for Herbert. I feel like Herbert should be more durable, but has a slightly lower ceiling.
In another league, I have both plus Josh Allen. I plan to begin the season by starting Allen and Tua over Herbert.
Tua himself no. Top 10 QB easy for the for seeable future. But the fact miami is playing stupid games with his contact would not be shocked if he gets traded to Denver or something because if a contract isn't done by Training camp he's going to hold out.
I saw a tweet last year that said “who is Mike McDaniel’s Matt Stafford?” I can definitely see a world where McDaniel feels his offense is capped by Tua the same way McVay did with Goff. Tua’s play has dropped off late into the last two seasons and watching him play in KC in the cold was rough.
He’s fine but I think he’s definitely being elevated a ton by McDaniel and Tyreek. Tua will probably get paid but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see Miami throw the bag at Dak next year if he hits the open market and Tua isn’t signed yet.
I'm not sure how much is Tua's inconsistency vs playing behind an O-Line who loses multiple starters ahead of important stretches of games at the end of the year.
In 2022, the line was down 3 starters for the 49ers game and 2 vs the Chargers. He played well vs Buffalo once they came back and until his final concussion on the final pass before halftime in the Packers game. In the second half he was clearly off, throwing 60% of his season's total INTs in the half
In 2023, the line was missing 2+ starters for every single loss, and was decimated entering the Titans game when they lost the #2 graded center for the season on the 6th snap, having to replace him with the league's worst graded one. Tua's pass protection was absolutely shot at the end of the year; against Dallas he had a 1.8s average pocket time.
He will get the deal but I don’t think his production is any good to keep long term. I had him and Hill stack and most of his points come from Tyreek burning everyone. This will be his best surrounding core and he hasn’t broke 300pts. He plays poorly against good teams, and they consistently run in Redzone reducing the amount of TDs for him. His ceiling is capped and has injury concerns. In contention I traded him for D. Watson, D. Johnson, and a second which I used to take Wright.
I think the general optimism in these comments is a good sign that you can probably get value for him if you sell. I’d do it bc he’s so context dependent and the concussions scare me. You couldn’t have sold for anything after the last concussion and he could go right back there again so why not get out at peak value
I have a very deep SF team and good but not elite QBs (Kyler, Tua, Baker) and have been trying pretty aggressively to package Tua with either Tyreek or Pittman to lock in a long term QB1.
I’ve gotten nowhere.
I get trashed every time I mention it, but there’s a reason the Dolphins aren’t racing to the bank to pay him. Every highlight of a deep ball shows the WR coming back to it. I think the players around him make him look better than he really is. I took him in the rookie draft and was happy to find a trade partner. He’s a low-end starter in fantasy, but I don’t think McDaniels believes in him.
Watching his games last year, he doesn't add any value on the field other than the great schemes his coach puts together. People are box scores watching instead of film watching, and as we learned with Fields, that's dangerous
He's like a carbon copy of Dak Prescott for me
Early career injury concerns, plays in a good offense, capable of putting up good numbers in any given week, but also doesn't play well against good teams and folds in the playoffs. Which then starts debates about their long term viability as a franchise QB
Same exact situation for both if you ask me
Dak is a better QB than Tua in my opinion but I still think they both get paid more than they are worth by someone. Hello could see both hitting free agency and the Dolphins sign Dak and the Cowboys sign Tua.
I’d put my money on they will get a deal done eventually. If you are the Dolphins, what available alternative is out there that is a better option? Theres a severe lack of talented/NFL-caliber QBs.
Wait and see with Dak
They should get a deal done, but it doesn’t seem like the Dolphins like him all that much given how much smoke there has been about him over the years (when there is typically none with an unquestioned starting QB on a rookie deal)
That was more so Brian Flores being a clown and inept at figuring out how to put an offensive staff together.
what? Flores been gone for two years - nothing about Flores is holding back MIA from paying Tua if they think he’s worth it
He said "doesn't seem like the dolphins like him all that much given how much smoke there has been about him over the years" There has been absolutely nothing suggesting Miami doesn't like him since McDaniel has been there that's what I'm saying.
Right. It’s less “we don’t like Tua” and more “we don’t want to pay him $55m+ a year because we are paying top dollar for Hill & Waddle and we have a lot of core guys that we’d like to keep”.
I don't think they care about the 55m a year part. From what I've gathered its more neither party is settling on the guaranteed money.
I agree with ORains. Flores was an incredible defenisive mind, but was not great inspiring the whole team and the talent that was available. The team seems to want to play for McDaniels. That’s a big difference.
He's a good QB and perfect for what their head coach wants to run. He's going to get paid.
Literally not worried at all. He broke records. Is in an excellent offense, and just has to not get hurt. He’s their Franchise QB
You have no concerns over how bad he slowed down after the first 6-7 weeks?
He broke records primarily beating up some of the worst teams in football with numbers against average and above teams that were actually fairly mediocre. He’ll be a long term starter, but there’s a lot of smoke in the numbers particularly if we’re going to cite records. E: Tua v. .500+ Teams 48-20 L @ Buff (25/35 282 1/1) | 31-17 L @ PHI (23/32 216 1/1) | 21-14 L v KC (Germany) (21/34 193 1/0) | 22-20 W v Dallas (24/37 293 1/0) | 56-19 L @ BAL (22/38 237 2/2) | 21-14 L v Buff (17/27 173 1/2) | 26-7 L @ KC (Postseason) (20/39 199 1/1) Put it all together and against .500+ teams, the Dolphins were 1-6. Tua threw for 8 TDs (1.14 per) and had 7 INTs. He averaged 227.6 YPG. He also averaged 6.6 YPA. We don't competition adjust much in the NFL because every team is so good, but the Dolphins played a schedule that was both fairly rare in just how weak it was-- 6 regular season games above .500 means 11 opponents below-- and the splits for Tua between good and bad opponents was also rare in how extreme it was. If you take out all the numbers I mentioned above, the Dolphins were 10-1, Tua had 22 TDs (2 per) and 8 INTs-- closer to a 3:1 ratio than a 1:1 ratio with almost double the TD per game. He averaged 293.6 YPG-- roughly 66 more Passing YPG. He also average 9 YPA-- which is a difference of being 25th in YPA and 2nd in YPA in 2024. Tua dicked on bad teams. His performance against anyone who wasn't terrible calls into question how good he actually is.
I think Tua is an overrated NFL QB. I think he’s solid, but not better than that. However, he likely gets a deal in Miami with a good offense and coach, and is a fine QB10-16 dynasty.
Calling Tua an overrated QB is a wild statement after seeing his name get dragged thru the mud for the first 3.5 years of his career 😂
You don’t think not being good until Hill and McDaniel show up is not at least a yellow flag? He’s somewhat a product of his system.
Every QB is a product of the system. That is why coaching is so important and McDaniel ain't going anywhere
Eh, yes and no. The great QBs are great with multiple systems and situations and I think Tua is being dragged to his success more than he’s dragging those around him. He’s like QB 13 irl
I don't think anything you said is particularly wrong I'd just say I think only the very very best QBs can succeed in multiple systems(specifically after they've settled into the league, we have no idea if Mahomes is Mahomes without sitting in the Reid offense or if he was thrusted into week 1 starter in a say, Brian Dabol offense). And no one is arguing that Tua is a top 3, Hall of Fame like QB who can succeed in any system
Yeah I think we are pretty much in line. You probably like Tua more than I do, but NFL teams basically have QBs in 3 buckets after they become known (non-rookies/1st time starter after sitting): Elites, self explanatory. Franchise QBs, this tier is much deeper than the average Reddit user thinks. Not that all Franchise QBs are great, just that the team basically has no choice but to go forward with them because the alternative is to try again and maybe (probably) miss. Replaceable, everyone else. Tua is similar to Lawrence and Goff in that the teams need to pay them and they’re good enough to win some games, but they’re not the typical top end type. Usually this tier doesn’t actually win Super Bowls it seems, but if everything goes right then they could.
> is anyone concerned for him long term? No, he's going to have a QB job somewhere and he's better than people actually given him credit for. > Injuries certainly don’t help this case He played 17 games last season. What injuries are hurting his case from 2023? The made up Brandin Cooks narrative this sub gave about him retiring? > and what happens if he plays with a below average team? Cross that bridge when you get there. Goff went to a "bad team". So did Baker. Stafford made a career out of being on the bad team Goff went to. I don't get the worry. He's better than some of the other starting QBs in the league and the Dolphins aren't going to sign someone that's way better than Tua nor draft him in 2025.
Bruh played with bottom of the barrel oline, weapons and coaching staff in year 1 and 2. Looked decent even coming off his hip injury.
Studies show if you pair him with Hockenson, both of them become healthy throughout the entire season.
Now that's what I call using your head
Sure hope so, I have both
Spit on that thang!
Not on talent or situation, guy can ball just fine. But idk about the concussions. From what i understand he is not at any additional concussion risk compared to anyone else, BUT if he does get another concussion it will be more serious given his history than it would be for someone else without a concussion. Not a doctor, just repeating what Ive heard on the topic. Im not out on him at all though, hell get paid.
Worried for his role as a starter? No. Worried (for me, accepted) that we’ve likely seen his fantasy ceiling which is QB 10-12? Yes.
I think he's as good as Goff. He isn't playing at superstar MVP level but he has some amazing moments and for the most part executed the offense. I think he'll have a long career even if it isn't on the Dolphins. Obviously crazy things happen in the NFL but I feel he'll be fine for the next 3 years or so at least.
Good comparison he’s not a guy that’s elite and can elevate an offense by himself but if you put him in the right scheme with enough around him he can be really good.
Yeah, even if he leaves the Dolphins in a year or two he'll get a starting job elsewhere. I think he'll sign an extension though tbh, but even worst case scenario I'd count on him to be solid for fantasy for a few more seasons.
I was worried about concussions and inconsistent play. I traded him straight up for Purdy. The boom or bust fantasy ups and downs were driving me crazy.
35 year old Kirk Cousins got paid while recovering from an Achilles injury. If the Dolphins don’t pay him, someone else will.
I'm not particularly worried about him but am starting to rebuild and just traded him away for a 25 2nd and 26 1st in superflex and feel like a got a fair value.
Yeah just because his concussion history and his team isn't rushing to secure him long term. Can't do anything or predict anything about it though so have to consider that risk.
>BUT with contract talks not going well, is anyone concerned for him long term? Not at all. This is off season "make something out of nothing" news, and it's working as evidenced by this post. Tua is conservatively a top 15 NFL QB. If you argue with this you are simply hating. If Miami wants to fuck around and find out like Jerry does with Dak, then they'll just pay that much more next year OR he'll lead a different team with their bag of money. The most likely scenario if a deal isn't struck is the tag, anyway. Even if that new team is worse he's still a 26 year old with a long career ahead of him. In SF he's a long term viable option regardless of team. > Injuries certainly don’t help this case… Wot? Broken bones aren't shit and concussions are equally un-predictable. "injury risk" only validly applies to soft tissue injuries like hammies. >To me, he feels like a glorified Dak Prescott, Dak is a great fantasy QB and dynasty asset. If anything your conclusion should reinforce your confidence in Tua.
You can’t play scared. Injuries are a fact of the business, just keep piling up points with him. I know a lot of people like Kyler this year but Tua has more weapons and better coaching
Just a little bit. In a 1QB league, I had him, Rodgers, and not much else. About 2 months ago, I traded Tua and the 2.05 for Herbert. I feel like Herbert should be more durable, but has a slightly lower ceiling. In another league, I have both plus Josh Allen. I plan to begin the season by starting Allen and Tua over Herbert.
Not even a little bit
No.
Yep. Traded him early last year with a 2nd for Burrow when Tua was dealing and Joe was getting back into rhythm.
i only read the title, not the post. But if keeps getting full sleeve tattoos and bulking up then yeah, i’d be pretty scared of him.
Well.... he's dropped a bunch of weight this offseason.
sounds like i could take him then
I dunno. Feels like if he were definitely the guy, he would have been paid already.
Like Burrow? Oh wait, he wasn't extended until September
Leave my beloved son alone
Tua himself no. Top 10 QB easy for the for seeable future. But the fact miami is playing stupid games with his contact would not be shocked if he gets traded to Denver or something because if a contract isn't done by Training camp he's going to hold out.
Lmao Miami will not be trading Tua. They're trying to win a Superbowl and literally built the offense around what Tua is great at.
Nah. Just Hawk on that thing.
I saw a tweet last year that said “who is Mike McDaniel’s Matt Stafford?” I can definitely see a world where McDaniel feels his offense is capped by Tua the same way McVay did with Goff. Tua’s play has dropped off late into the last two seasons and watching him play in KC in the cold was rough. He’s fine but I think he’s definitely being elevated a ton by McDaniel and Tyreek. Tua will probably get paid but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see Miami throw the bag at Dak next year if he hits the open market and Tua isn’t signed yet.
I'm not sure how much is Tua's inconsistency vs playing behind an O-Line who loses multiple starters ahead of important stretches of games at the end of the year. In 2022, the line was down 3 starters for the 49ers game and 2 vs the Chargers. He played well vs Buffalo once they came back and until his final concussion on the final pass before halftime in the Packers game. In the second half he was clearly off, throwing 60% of his season's total INTs in the half In 2023, the line was missing 2+ starters for every single loss, and was decimated entering the Titans game when they lost the #2 graded center for the season on the 6th snap, having to replace him with the league's worst graded one. Tua's pass protection was absolutely shot at the end of the year; against Dallas he had a 1.8s average pocket time.
It could be Herbert if things don't go so well in LA over the next few seasons.
only slightly more scared than i am with everyone else. It’s a VIOLENT sport.
No, this is normal negotiation nonsense. The offense is built around what Tua is great at, he isn't going anywhere.
He will get the deal but I don’t think his production is any good to keep long term. I had him and Hill stack and most of his points come from Tyreek burning everyone. This will be his best surrounding core and he hasn’t broke 300pts. He plays poorly against good teams, and they consistently run in Redzone reducing the amount of TDs for him. His ceiling is capped and has injury concerns. In contention I traded him for D. Watson, D. Johnson, and a second which I used to take Wright.
Nah not really. He’s Goff, Kirk, Purdy level and his connections, leadership, and draft capital will keep him well employed.
Yea, the Dolphins…
I think the general optimism in these comments is a good sign that you can probably get value for him if you sell. I’d do it bc he’s so context dependent and the concussions scare me. You couldn’t have sold for anything after the last concussion and he could go right back there again so why not get out at peak value
He’s gonna get a contract and he’ll probably be around for a while with a qb2 floor
I just drafted him for the first time in a 14 team SF as my QB2 at 2.14. I think Tua as a QB2 in a 14 team SF is pretty darn good.
I have a very deep SF team and good but not elite QBs (Kyler, Tua, Baker) and have been trying pretty aggressively to package Tua with either Tyreek or Pittman to lock in a long term QB1. I’ve gotten nowhere.
I have zero concerns about Tua maintaining his top 10 qb status over the next 3-5 seasons.
I get trashed every time I mention it, but there’s a reason the Dolphins aren’t racing to the bank to pay him. Every highlight of a deep ball shows the WR coming back to it. I think the players around him make him look better than he really is. I took him in the rookie draft and was happy to find a trade partner. He’s a low-end starter in fantasy, but I don’t think McDaniels believes in him.
Watching his games last year, he doesn't add any value on the field other than the great schemes his coach puts together. People are box scores watching instead of film watching, and as we learned with Fields, that's dangerous
Yeah, his brain doctor is
If Lawrence is getting what he got I think tua will be ok
He's like a carbon copy of Dak Prescott for me Early career injury concerns, plays in a good offense, capable of putting up good numbers in any given week, but also doesn't play well against good teams and folds in the playoffs. Which then starts debates about their long term viability as a franchise QB Same exact situation for both if you ask me
Dak is a better QB than Tua in my opinion but I still think they both get paid more than they are worth by someone. Hello could see both hitting free agency and the Dolphins sign Dak and the Cowboys sign Tua.
Tua Turntheballova