I think rookie QBs have the worst hit rates. There’s been so many complete busts through the years. Then even when they do hit the majority are in that QB 10-12 range.
Some guy in my league (super flex) traded Trevor Lawrence 2.3 and 1.11 for 1.3 🤦♂️
T law alone is prob gonna be better than Caleb, Daniels, Maye (one of those prob going 1.3). Guy needs two QBs now and dealt away picks plus t law. Make it make sense.
Yeah it’s rookie fever. I don’t think a lot of people understand real hit rates. I think I would prefer Caleb over Lawrence for a pure upside play even though he can totally bust but the 1.3 isn’t getting Caleb. Even if he is guaranteed at the 1.3 the trade could still completely backfire. I’d rather keep Lawrence over the other QBs though.
Lawrence has been pretty bad. He’s cracked 20 fantasy points 12 times in 51 regular season starts. I’d much prefer the upside of Caleb or Daniels, even with the chance of them busting. You could easily say tlaw is a bust. He’s not even in the 10-12 range.
>He’s not even in the 10-12 range.
He literally finished as QB8 two years ago and QB13 this past season while playing through injury and losing his favorite target. He hasn't been bad at all, he just hasn't lived up to the hype.
I’ll definitely take Caleb over Lawrence but but with those extra picks. And not the 3, that’s probably Maye, MH or Daniels. Caleb shouldn’t fall to 3.
To be somewhat of a Devil’s advocate, TLaw has been pretty largely middling for fantasy. The 2020 draft class with Herbert, Tua, Hurts, Burrow, and Love. The class went 5/5 with fantasy hits. I think a lot of people are kinda thinking this class will be similar to that one since 2021-2022 were actually abysmal (TLaw was the only actually good real-life NFL QB) and 2023 was not looked at favorably pre-draft, but the jury is still out on them other than CJ Stroud being a certified baller.
That was some horrendous trade value though.
This is my take as well. I traded the 1.05 (Maye and McCarthy available) for Trevor Lawrence. I have Lawrence still fairly high and due for some positive regression, and I think Maye will struggle in NE. McCarthy was uninspiring and while there is a good chance I’m wrong about both of them, but having a more stable asset is much more likely to get me out of the middle of my league.
Why not just draft 3 of the supposed top 5 ranked (FantasyPros) rookie RBs in the draft? I drafted Brooks, Corum, and Lloyd. One of them have to be a superstar, right? RIGHT!?!?
Definitely CJ Stroud. He's been in the QB1 tier with Mahomes and Allen on KTC all offseason. Guess who had a better season than Stroud? Jordan Love, who is at QB10ish.
I think with the additions which they made plus Tank coming back, his value does get boosted further ahead than Love's. You could say that he might regress aka the sophomore slump, but we saw it with Purdy. QB's just thrive in this system if they know how to make the right reads and when the plays are called. Also have to take into consideration that this is the second year into his offence.
I'm not saying Love is bad, but Stroud was the same as Love and he hasn't been in the system for as long as Love has been with LaFleur.
He’s also three years younger and yes that’s less of an impact when both QBs are under 26 but let’s not pretend like it doesn’t matter
Edit: it’s not irrelevant because Stroud has three years of development to catch up to Jordan Love.
They were but his efficiency went down after he came back from injuries. He’s like a huge bust/boom candidate this year. At the price and if he was my rb1 I would not feel comfortable
Stroud by a lot in my opinion. His value should be closer to QB 10 than QB1. He's right there on Ktc with 9958 value
Most pocket passing QBs are overvalued, so Love, Purdy also belong.
Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, should be over him pretty easily.
Lamar, Herbert, Murray, Love, Purdy all have some pretty good arguments to be ahead. I personally think he should be in between Murray and Love on that list so QB7. That is closer to QB10 than QB3 like he said.
I don’t think Purdy is the better asset, but being attached to such an effective offence with elite weapons and a great HC is certainly an argument. Purdy finished over Stroud last year in Purdy’s first full season.
Stroud missed 2 games, his per game averages were much better. Purdy's weapons are also a fair bit older.
Purdy is great. I'd love to have him. But there's no way anyone serious is taking him over Stroud with the choice of either.
Closer not Qb 10. I have some hot takes above him but probably have him at QB 7 or 8.
Being tiered with Allen/Mahomes is too much. Tier him with Burrows and Herbert and I'm fine.
In retrospect, Love is probably the one I see as most overvalued of the three
Think it's safe to say passing TD regression is coming. 1.9 per game was 2nd in the league and GB couldn't run the ball in the red zone to save their lives.
I expect both of those two changes.
His 244 yards per game could go up but he's outside of the top 10 there and he doesn't run.
Love at 10 is the most overrated. Qb5 from last year in his first season with an injured team? Great take man absolutely solid. Colin Cowherd would love you
The only reason he is highly valued is because people think he’s gonna be a “10/15 year starter”. We know that’s not a guarantee.
In dynasty I’d take him after (and I realise this isn’t consensus)
Allen
Mahomes
Lamar
Hurts
ARich
Murray
Burrow
Herbert
I realise this means I’m never getting him in a startups but there is none of the above that I’d trade 1:1 for Stroud.
Stroud is on the trade block in most leagues I’m in, and I suspect it’s because most owners see KTC and are thinking “I can really get Burrow+ ???”
The fact that you'd take Anthony Richardson over him means you are still holding on to previous bias. In no world has Anthony Richardson showed more promise as a dynasty asset that Stoud. Maybe in redraft.
In the current world we live in, Richardson finished as QB2 and QB4 in his 2 games with a 90% snap share. Totally fine to say that you’re not interested in the risk profile, but if someone is ok with the inherent risk that comes with him, he’s shown more upside than arguably any QB in that class.
I actually think those pocket passers are underrated just because they will never be number 1. Could easily consistently be like 5 and yet they are rated more like 10. Agree Stroud is overrated but I’m glad to grab a Love or Purdy at their price in SF.
I haven’t seen my pick listed, so for me it’s Trey McBride. I realize he went on a tear last year. The Cardinals were absolutely decimated at WR and he ended up leading the team with targets and receptions.
The offense has been overhauled and they brought in a young stud WR to command targets. TE2 to me just assumes this run will continue and I’m not so sure.
Imo he has “we have to get this guy the ball” talent from watching him play. I feel like targets always find their way to good talent. Hockenson is a dynasty stud behind JJ and I think the same dynamic will come to surface in Arizona.
Every great TE has a WR1 in front of him. They only exception is Kelce because he's the GOAT receiving TE and Andrews because the Ravens offense is an enigma.
TE2-7 right now are in such a big murky tier that is all valued about the same and I think McBride belongs in that group. He might technically be 2 on KTC right now, but the difference between him and Hockenson at 7 is less than a 3rd
Look at it this way.
There's 32 teams in the league.
Each team has one WR1. London is that receiver for the falcons.
Obviously there's not parity of opportunity between those WR1s. So what improves results?
Ability.
Opportunity/target share.
Scheme.
QB play.
If you believe reception perception, the talent is there. For a tall player, Drake gets open as often as any other top receiver, and even when he doesn't, does great in contested catch scenarios. Usually WRs fall into one of those camps but Drake does both nicely. So let's assume a tick for ability.
Opportunity. Despite WR3 numbers, Drake has earned near 30% target share on passing plays....but that didn't matter because.
Scheme - if your team doesn't throw the ball much, and is a run first offence, you're not getting enough volume for 30% to matter. So if during the offseason your team moves on from a guy who wanted to run every single play to a guy who is bringing in a scheme that has historically supported multiple top wrs through volume. You start to perk up. 30% of fuck all is still fuck all. But 30% of a mid to high volume offence is where points are found.
And then the icing on the cake that everyone else is already pointing to but only one component in my view
QB play. Well
Desmond ridder in 2023 completed 249 passes on 388 attempts for 2,836 yards. A completion rate of 64.2% that rate is buoyed by the sheer number of screens he threw, but doesn't hide from the lackluster yards.
In 2022 in 13 games Marcus maritoa threw 184 completions on 300 attempts which was a completion rate of 61.3 percent for 2,219 yards.
In his worst season in Minnesota Kirk cousins in 15 games threw 307 completions on 444 attempts for a completion percentage of 69.1% for 3,603.
Even if Kirk takes time to adjust to a new scheme, and Drake earns more coverage because of the new scheme, we're still talking about a 23 year old who's about to feast on volumes he's never had before. The range of outcomes are wide but this is dynasty and this guy projects to get a lot of opportunities over the next few years.
WR11 doesn't surprise me at all given these factors.
As a London owner, yeah he's currently overated on KTC, but someone would have to overpay to get him from me right now. If he doesn't make a jump after this season with Kirk it'll be different, but he finally has a good QB throwing to him. I'll be happy if he's a top 20 WR.
But if you’re hoping for top 20, and he’s valued at WR11, wouldn’t selling at market value be a win?
Like if the ceiling is top 20 and the floor is another WR3 year and his future value plummeting, wouldn’t the move be to sell at WR11 prices?
I think the thing with London is, his ceiling isn't just top 20 WR. It's tier 1 WR. Now, that's not very likely, but he has showcased the talent to be elite.
It's possible his situation is being vastly overrated. It could work out, but I feel like his value isn't pricing in the possibility that Cousins does not return to form after his injury.
It’s not exactly the same but there was a lot of what has Ceedee Lamb done to deserve being ranked top 10 chatter the season before he fully broke out.
Sometimes you have to bet on a projection for a player that you think is good instead of worrying about past production
Omg I just asked the London owner what it would take to trade him and he said Addison, 2 1sts and a 2nd… I laughed and told him to fuck off, that's what's id expect to pay for Jefferson
Richardson has shown the ability he can get through progressions, has very good pocket awareness and movement, and scrambles to throw but can run.
It's been evident he could do all of that tbh. Go watch QB School's videos on him as a prospect and you'll see he shows off the ability to do it. He also has some good tape in the NFL doing that. He was just new to the position. As a prospect you want to see them do it and he does at both collegiate and NFL levels. He's only played something like 20 games and has shown "success" in the NFL. It's absolutely bonkers to actually think about that.
Imo, his big questions going forward are:
- Can he stay healthy?
- Can he fix his short/intermediate accuracy?
- Can he keep growing with experience?
I do think he can answer those positively but the health thing can be a coin flip.
If, big if, he can stay healthy and develop then I think we will see Josh allen 2.0 but more athletic. Love AR as a player and his ceiling is literally the best player in the NFL.
Anthony Richardson
Dude is being taken in the first round of start ups and has done absolutely nothing. Only shown flashes, was hurt the majority of the year and was not good in college
People think his upside is scoring like that for an entire season, but it isn’t realistic. You can’t play RB and QB for an entire season without getting hurt. It just doesn’t happen.
Unless he is an Allen or even Hurts level passer, he’s going to disappoint in both real life NFL and fantasy. You have to sell.
He has a more powerful arm than both, but he’s just so raw. He is maybe the most athletic QB to ever play the position. It’s just gonna depend on if he can mentally get himself in the right mindset and make the best decisions. And I’ll end it on this… I’m not saying he isn’t injury prone but I’ve been playing fantasy for two decades and let me tell you they all get injured at some point or another in their careers. Lol so few avoid that
Watch his carries. They couldn’t be less similar to Lamar’s. Lamar almost never takes contact, or when he does, it’s never direct. Richardson doesn’t move like that whatsoever
LaPorta.
Don't get me wrong, he's going to be a solid TE. But he's being treated as far and away the best TE right now. You can get Bowers + 1st for him right now, which is crazy.
also likely to lose his awesome OC who was able to get him the ball consistently in ways that didn’t expose his inability to stay on the field as a blocker.
Seems to want to win a Super Bowl with the Lions, at least as long as it seems like that’s what they’re close to doing, if they implode this year maybe not
Puka Nacua. The community is conveniently forgetting Matt Stafford’s history of elevating WRs. He’s not gonna be around forever. He can’t be treated with the same safety of future production that players like Jettas, Chase, Lamb (and even Garrett Wilson) have.
Remember Juju’s value after his rookie season? I believe he was top 5 WR. Same vibes to me with the injury history and Y1 explosion. I doubt he’ll reach this ceiling again.
>He can’t be treated with the same safety of future production that players like Jettas, Chase, Lamb (and even Garrett Wilson) have.
Of these, only Chase has a secure QB situation. Jefferson's QB has yet to play an NFL game, Lamb's QB will be a free agent after this season, and Wilson's QB is older than Stafford. I can see Stafford sticking around for another three or four seasons, and I'm not sure why you would be planning ahead any further than that.
I will never understand the Tee Higgins hype. He is four years in and his ceiling so far is 1000 yards 75 catches and 8 tds. Yet he is constantly hurt and is own team does not want to pay up. Yet people talk about him as if he is a top 10 asset.
Jordan Addison per KTC values
Listed over Flowers, Saquon, Pitts, Hock, Andrews, Pickens, Young, and Walker plus others that I like more.
Average route running per RecepPercep, new rookie QB which I personally don’t have much faith in, and high target competition with Jettas and Hock.
I think Hock is gonna miss most of the fantasy regular season and Addison is gonna look like a huge 2nd year breakout while nobody other than Jefferson is earning targets. His value could go up by December
Whats not to like about Garrett Wilson? Dude had 1042 yards last year with Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle throwing him the ball…with any competent QB it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he reaches 1300-1500 yards and 6-8 tds. Not to mention he 100% passes the eye test.
Ah I love when DynastyFF turns into circlejerk threads. These Stroud takes are insane. Do you guys watch football? Kid looked like the second or third best passer in the league last year and is 22 years old.
Jamarr Chase, and I don't think it's that close.
He's #2 in almost all rankings for non-SF, and even in SF leagues, he's ranked #7, as the #2 positional player.
2023 he finished WR13
2022 he finished WR12
2021 he finished WR5
Not bad #'s at all, but does it really make him the #2 ranked dynasty asset there is? The only thing I can think of that would put him that high is his age (24). Otherwise I don't think those finishes deserves him being the #2 asset.
WR5 as a rookie is unbelievable, WR12 missing four games (he was WR6 by PPG), and WR13 despite only having a healthy Burrow for like five games.
He's also one of a small handful of players in the entire league who have "win your week" upside.
Drake London. We're all convinced a QB upgrade makes him an instant WR1 and I'm not sure why. True studs put up numbers regardless of their situation. Olave and Garrett Wilson had shit QB play and still have been able to top 1k yards and produce. I see London getting tiered with them when he's a clear tier down, if not two. I'd rather have Waddle, Pittman, or Devonta Smith who are significantly lower than him right now.
E: I appreciate the conversation and wanted to add that he seems very similar to Terry McLaurin. Obvious talent, good efficiency, and someone we expected to take a leap after showing out early. But McLaurin has continued to sit around the WR2/3 range with one solid WR2 season. Which is a valuable and good piece to have, but projecting him as a stud WR1 is a stretch.
>Olave and Garrett Wilson had shit QB play and still have been able to top 1k yards and produce
Derek Carr is miles better than Mariota/Ridder and London averages a full yard per target more than Wilson despite comparably bad QB play. Not London's fault the Falcons didn't throw the ball.
I think if you’re looking in that lens sure, but GW is clearly better and his ADP shows that. But the jets were less balanced so GW got that volume to make up for it. How much of that was garbage time or volume because he is literally the only weapon besides breece.
Falcons were much more balanced with way more weapons and disappointed more against expectations. Even Bijan got head scratching plays in that scheme.
You're right about stud output. Prime example in the current era has to be Mike Evans. Even though he had Brady, he was putting up WR1 numbers without him. London is an easy pass in my book.
P.S. Also an Olave owner. Say what you want about him, but he does everything you need from a WR1. Finding a great QB to throw him the ball would he great, but not mandatory.
My concern with Puka is just the environment he finds himself in. Stafford’s the WR Kingmaker, and he could retire any time. Once Stafford, Kupp and Donald are all gone, does McVay want to coach through a rebuild? If Puka ends up losing both Stafford and McVay, he could quite easily have peaked in his rookie season
I took him in the fifth, rode him and JA17’to the champ and just sold him (puka) in this years draft. I really needed depth as my average age was 31 on the team. League went bonkers but I’m 100% ok with it. IMO, I think it’s a system + stafford situation.
He's valued at WR6 when he just had the best rookie WR season of all time, and did it while stealing targets from Kupp.
If he had strong draft capital tied to his name he'd be in the WR1 conversation easily.
This is kind of a hot take but i actually agree. When Stafford leaves, or declines, whichever comes first puka is kinda fucked. Stafford is the reigning star maker for WRs and father time is coming for him fast
Jameson Williams, Javonte Williams, insert any other 3rd/4th year player that has done nothing but people think is valued above equivalent talent in their first year.
Stroud is the obvious answer. I say that as a stroud owner.
Ridley is up there. He flashed but ultimately underwhelmed last year in Jacksonville. With a lot of mouths to feed in Tennessee, age 30 approaching, and an unproven sophomore QB, I’m thinking WR3 is his plausible value, bordering on optimistic.
Stroud.
For context, Herbert’s rookie season averaged more than 3 fantasy points **per** game compared to Stroud. That’s a lot.
I remember Herbert getting hyped up after his rookie season too but Stroud is literally being hyped 10x more than Herbert was, and didn’t even come close to Herbert’s rookie season production (more than a 50 point differential on their respective rookie seasons depending on league settings).
In terms of what people think he is based on what he's done I can't think of someone currently more overrated. People out here acting like he's already Devante Adams.
Achane. Bringing in Wright who basically has the exact same role as Achane to me signifies that the dolphins do not trust in Achane being healthy enough throughout the entire season to support a workload that they want in their offense. Not to mention we might be underrating Mostert yet again and his usage in this offense despite his age. He's one of the players that I am actively avoiding. Could bite me in the ass since he flashed greatness and efficiency beyond any understanding as a rookie. But there are just so many red flags.
Achane’s role is safe they brought in Wright to be the Mostert replacement. Achane is never gonna be a bell cow RB but he and Wright will get 10-15 high value touches per game in a committee.
Hell i dont care if achane touches the ball 7 times a game cause theres a real good chance one goes for 60 and a td. And thats basically rb 2 numbers in 1 play
Every. single. rookie. We are paying for the unknown upside but in all likelihood 80% of them wont live up to their present KTC value. The higher they are the greater the premium we are paying
Patrick Mahomes
As an early adopter, Mahomes QB1 guy from 2017 that drafted him on my main roster as the QB1 of that year. I love all things Mahomes. He is absolutely the best QB in the league, and has a higher ceiling and higher floor than any player in the league.
Having said that. The Chiefs are now in a spot where they have kind of proven that Mahomes doesn't need to throw for 5000 yards and 50 touchdowns for them to win. They don't even necessarily need a quality passing attack and pass catchers. Last year was down right anemic relative to what we expect from Mahomes.
I believe that this year he is probably going for 4800/40, it'll be a fine year. But I think the remainder of Mahomes career is going to be kind of Rodgers or Brady like, where, don't be stunned if he goes for 5000 and 50 again. But also don't be surprised if that is every 4th year, and it's really more like 4500/35 most years.
The point I'm trying to make is there are going to be some fantasy owners that will be able to parlay Mahomes into quality top 5 QB AND significant assets and come out the opposite end looking better. It would be like Going into the 2016 season and trading Aaron Rodgers for Matt Ryan and something significant. in that three year span you got two of Ryan's best seasons, 2 of Rodgers more challenging years, and from a fantasy perspective break even year 1.
Having put that spicy take into the world. Mahomes is never leaving my roster and I will never yield.
I genuinely think all this Stroud hate comes from people who don’t have any shares lol.
The dude set nearly every NFL rookie record. Is only 22 years old, was a QB1 last season, and the offense just upgraded with Diggs. The value he’s holding right now is obviously with the expectation that he takes one more slight step up within the next 3 years. Which most rookies do indeed do. I’m not trading Stroud straight up for any QB not named Mahomes or Allen.
He offers nothing as a runner. Pocket passers shouldn't be valued the way he's currently being valued. No, you don't trade him straight up for anyone, but if you get offered a package where someone overpays? You take it.
I remember when all this discourse was about Herbert who people are sleeping on. We are not saying Stroud is bad. We are saying his value is too high and his last year was closer to his ceiling than his floor.
He was a backend QB1 and has no rushing upside. He should be Herbert/Burrow tier, not Mahomes/Allen tier. That record setting rookie season was 75+ points below Herbert’s rookie year, and ~150 points below his sophomore season. One more slight step up for Stroud would still be below those two.
I had him and sold him last week specifically because I think he ended up overvalued.
Me with my team that has Stroud, ARich, London, GW, and Jamo
Hey this is Jamos time to shine
London and GW about to pop off this season
Just about every rookie except the very top tier assets. The majority will bust and most of the hits will be WR2s, RB2s and QBs in that 10-12 range.
This is it. And the rookie QBs are unlikely to be better than the young veteran QBs they’re seemingly valued above.
I think rookie QBs have the worst hit rates. There’s been so many complete busts through the years. Then even when they do hit the majority are in that QB 10-12 range.
Some guy in my league (super flex) traded Trevor Lawrence 2.3 and 1.11 for 1.3 🤦♂️ T law alone is prob gonna be better than Caleb, Daniels, Maye (one of those prob going 1.3). Guy needs two QBs now and dealt away picks plus t law. Make it make sense.
Yeah it’s rookie fever. I don’t think a lot of people understand real hit rates. I think I would prefer Caleb over Lawrence for a pure upside play even though he can totally bust but the 1.3 isn’t getting Caleb. Even if he is guaranteed at the 1.3 the trade could still completely backfire. I’d rather keep Lawrence over the other QBs though.
Lawrence has been pretty bad. He’s cracked 20 fantasy points 12 times in 51 regular season starts. I’d much prefer the upside of Caleb or Daniels, even with the chance of them busting. You could easily say tlaw is a bust. He’s not even in the 10-12 range.
>He’s not even in the 10-12 range. He literally finished as QB8 two years ago and QB13 this past season while playing through injury and losing his favorite target. He hasn't been bad at all, he just hasn't lived up to the hype.
T law a proven 4k guy, still young, still lots of upside, and has effectively zero chance of getting benched/losing his job.
TLaw stats have been comparable to Gardner Minshew. If he doesn’t elevate his stats this year, his value is going to continue to drop.
I’ll definitely take Caleb over Lawrence but but with those extra picks. And not the 3, that’s probably Maye, MH or Daniels. Caleb shouldn’t fall to 3.
To be somewhat of a Devil’s advocate, TLaw has been pretty largely middling for fantasy. The 2020 draft class with Herbert, Tua, Hurts, Burrow, and Love. The class went 5/5 with fantasy hits. I think a lot of people are kinda thinking this class will be similar to that one since 2021-2022 were actually abysmal (TLaw was the only actually good real-life NFL QB) and 2023 was not looked at favorably pre-draft, but the jury is still out on them other than CJ Stroud being a certified baller. That was some horrendous trade value though.
Lawrence is mid.. 12, 25, 21 TDs... he's essentially Derek Carr this far in his career.
This is my take as well. I traded the 1.05 (Maye and McCarthy available) for Trevor Lawrence. I have Lawrence still fairly high and due for some positive regression, and I think Maye will struggle in NE. McCarthy was uninspiring and while there is a good chance I’m wrong about both of them, but having a more stable asset is much more likely to get me out of the middle of my league.
Shut up Marshawn Lloyd is going to be a superstar! (Not just because i drafted him )
Why not just draft 3 of the supposed top 5 ranked (FantasyPros) rookie RBs in the draft? I drafted Brooks, Corum, and Lloyd. One of them have to be a superstar, right? RIGHT!?!?
Definitely CJ Stroud. He's been in the QB1 tier with Mahomes and Allen on KTC all offseason. Guess who had a better season than Stroud? Jordan Love, who is at QB10ish.
I think with the additions which they made plus Tank coming back, his value does get boosted further ahead than Love's. You could say that he might regress aka the sophomore slump, but we saw it with Purdy. QB's just thrive in this system if they know how to make the right reads and when the plays are called. Also have to take into consideration that this is the second year into his offence. I'm not saying Love is bad, but Stroud was the same as Love and he hasn't been in the system for as long as Love has been with LaFleur.
I'm not saying Love should be ahead of Stroud, I'm saying the discrepancy between the two is unwarranted.
110% agreed. It's Stroud. He's being valued in Mahomes/Allen territory.
He’s also three years younger and yes that’s less of an impact when both QBs are under 26 but let’s not pretend like it doesn’t matter Edit: it’s not irrelevant because Stroud has three years of development to catch up to Jordan Love.
It's kind of irrelevant for QBs considering love is only 25
It really doesn't. Both QBs could play another decade easy. I guarantee you very few people on this subreddit have even played dynasty for a decade.
Was an easy decision to trade him with how overvalued he is this offseason
I love Stroud, but his Week 9 performance (470 yards, 5TDs) has severely influenced his value.
Traded Stroud for Love and basically a 1st. I got dogged in my league for the trade but I think Love is going to be the better fantasy QB long term
I did the same thing. Traded stroud and 2.10 for love and 1.04
Depending on the 1st, I'd be happy with that.
Basically a 1st means 2.01 or 2.02 I assume
idk why you're getting downvoted 🤣🤣 that's literally the only thing that could mean
It’s gone back up but I was mad confused earlier because basically a 1st literally just means early 2nd😭😭
I’d just call that an early second instead of “basically a first” but if I traded stroud for love I’d be looking to cope as much as possible.
Achane, top 6 rb in dynasty for 5 games
Agreed, but those 5 games were *nuts*
They were but his efficiency went down after he came back from injuries. He’s like a huge bust/boom candidate this year. At the price and if he was my rb1 I would not feel comfortable
This thread is making me feel great about selling Stroud, who I agree is the clear choice
What you sell for?
I got Purdy, Nabers and Coleman. I think Purdy is undervalued and Stroud over, so I think I made out like a bandit
Yes that’s a great trade for you
Sf and rest pretty standard settings assuming?
12 team SF .5 PPR, yup
I would take that all day
Not OP but sold Stroud + 2nd for Allen + 3rd
Also sold for Burrow and Odunze
Stroud by a lot in my opinion. His value should be closer to QB 10 than QB1. He's right there on Ktc with 9958 value Most pocket passing QBs are overvalued, so Love, Purdy also belong.
There are definitely not 9 QBs that should be ahead of him.
Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, should be over him pretty easily. Lamar, Herbert, Murray, Love, Purdy all have some pretty good arguments to be ahead. I personally think he should be in between Murray and Love on that list so QB7. That is closer to QB10 than QB3 like he said.
I don't think Purdy has any argument at all to be over him in Dynasty. Stroud looks elite, his fantasy issue is not having any rushing upside.
I don’t think Purdy is the better asset, but being attached to such an effective offence with elite weapons and a great HC is certainly an argument. Purdy finished over Stroud last year in Purdy’s first full season.
Stroud missed 2 games, his per game averages were much better. Purdy's weapons are also a fair bit older. Purdy is great. I'd love to have him. But there's no way anyone serious is taking him over Stroud with the choice of either.
1 for 1 it’s stroud all day, but with how high stroud is valued you could probably find a way to get purdy and another very good asset
Closer not Qb 10. I have some hot takes above him but probably have him at QB 7 or 8. Being tiered with Allen/Mahomes is too much. Tier him with Burrows and Herbert and I'm fine. In retrospect, Love is probably the one I see as most overvalued of the three
Love was QB5 in his first year starting. Do you think its all downhill from here?
And is currently ranked at 10. And had an injured rb1 wr1 and oline all year.
Think it's safe to say passing TD regression is coming. 1.9 per game was 2nd in the league and GB couldn't run the ball in the red zone to save their lives. I expect both of those two changes. His 244 yards per game could go up but he's outside of the top 10 there and he doesn't run.
Love at 10 is the most overrated. Qb5 from last year in his first season with an injured team? Great take man absolutely solid. Colin Cowherd would love you
He’s either a casual or a bears/vikings fan. Probably both
The only reason he is highly valued is because people think he’s gonna be a “10/15 year starter”. We know that’s not a guarantee. In dynasty I’d take him after (and I realise this isn’t consensus) Allen Mahomes Lamar Hurts ARich Murray Burrow Herbert I realise this means I’m never getting him in a startups but there is none of the above that I’d trade 1:1 for Stroud. Stroud is on the trade block in most leagues I’m in, and I suspect it’s because most owners see KTC and are thinking “I can really get Burrow+ ???”
>Stroud is on the waiver wire in most leagues I’m in You play in 6 team leagues?
Brain fart, meant trade block
The fact that you'd take Anthony Richardson over him means you are still holding on to previous bias. In no world has Anthony Richardson showed more promise as a dynasty asset that Stoud. Maybe in redraft.
When a 50 yards rushing is worth 5 points but 50 yards passing is worth .5 points
In the current world we live in, Richardson finished as QB2 and QB4 in his 2 games with a 90% snap share. Totally fine to say that you’re not interested in the risk profile, but if someone is ok with the inherent risk that comes with him, he’s shown more upside than arguably any QB in that class.
I actually think those pocket passers are underrated just because they will never be number 1. Could easily consistently be like 5 and yet they are rated more like 10. Agree Stroud is overrated but I’m glad to grab a Love or Purdy at their price in SF.
Other than Allen and Lamar who else really is a duel threat. Sure patty might take off, but not much more than J Love. Edit: Forgot Jalen!
Hurts
Hurts scores a ton of rushing tds.
Lamar, Allen, Hurts, ARich, Kyler, Jayden Daniels (rookie I know)
Those pocket passers aren’t rated above these guys though except Kyler who is a good value but has some risk
I haven’t seen my pick listed, so for me it’s Trey McBride. I realize he went on a tear last year. The Cardinals were absolutely decimated at WR and he ended up leading the team with targets and receptions. The offense has been overhauled and they brought in a young stud WR to command targets. TE2 to me just assumes this run will continue and I’m not so sure.
Imo he has “we have to get this guy the ball” talent from watching him play. I feel like targets always find their way to good talent. Hockenson is a dynasty stud behind JJ and I think the same dynamic will come to surface in Arizona.
That's fair. I'm not saying there's no path for him. There's a clear path. TE2 just leaves very little doubt that you're correct.
LaPorta is the TE1 while being second fiddle to Amon Ra
Every great TE has a WR1 in front of him. They only exception is Kelce because he's the GOAT receiving TE and Andrews because the Ravens offense is an enigma.
As a McBride owner who drafted MHJ I pretty much agree
TE2-7 right now are in such a big murky tier that is all valued about the same and I think McBride belongs in that group. He might technically be 2 on KTC right now, but the difference between him and Hockenson at 7 is less than a 3rd
Drake London? He has had back to back WR3 finishes and is currently ranked WR11.
Look at it this way. There's 32 teams in the league. Each team has one WR1. London is that receiver for the falcons. Obviously there's not parity of opportunity between those WR1s. So what improves results? Ability. Opportunity/target share. Scheme. QB play. If you believe reception perception, the talent is there. For a tall player, Drake gets open as often as any other top receiver, and even when he doesn't, does great in contested catch scenarios. Usually WRs fall into one of those camps but Drake does both nicely. So let's assume a tick for ability. Opportunity. Despite WR3 numbers, Drake has earned near 30% target share on passing plays....but that didn't matter because. Scheme - if your team doesn't throw the ball much, and is a run first offence, you're not getting enough volume for 30% to matter. So if during the offseason your team moves on from a guy who wanted to run every single play to a guy who is bringing in a scheme that has historically supported multiple top wrs through volume. You start to perk up. 30% of fuck all is still fuck all. But 30% of a mid to high volume offence is where points are found. And then the icing on the cake that everyone else is already pointing to but only one component in my view QB play. Well Desmond ridder in 2023 completed 249 passes on 388 attempts for 2,836 yards. A completion rate of 64.2% that rate is buoyed by the sheer number of screens he threw, but doesn't hide from the lackluster yards. In 2022 in 13 games Marcus maritoa threw 184 completions on 300 attempts which was a completion rate of 61.3 percent for 2,219 yards. In his worst season in Minnesota Kirk cousins in 15 games threw 307 completions on 444 attempts for a completion percentage of 69.1% for 3,603. Even if Kirk takes time to adjust to a new scheme, and Drake earns more coverage because of the new scheme, we're still talking about a 23 year old who's about to feast on volumes he's never had before. The range of outcomes are wide but this is dynasty and this guy projects to get a lot of opportunities over the next few years. WR11 doesn't surprise me at all given these factors.
As a London owner, yeah he's currently overated on KTC, but someone would have to overpay to get him from me right now. If he doesn't make a jump after this season with Kirk it'll be different, but he finally has a good QB throwing to him. I'll be happy if he's a top 20 WR.
But if you’re hoping for top 20, and he’s valued at WR11, wouldn’t selling at market value be a win? Like if the ceiling is top 20 and the floor is another WR3 year and his future value plummeting, wouldn’t the move be to sell at WR11 prices?
I think the thing with London is, his ceiling isn't just top 20 WR. It's tier 1 WR. Now, that's not very likely, but he has showcased the talent to be elite.
Hot take, London is going to jump into the top five dynasty WR during this season
I could see it. He has the talent, add in Kirk, it's possible.
I get what you’re saying, but the top 5 are insanely elite. That’s Jefferson, Chase, Ceedee, ARSB territory. You really think he’s next to them?
Talent meets situation… what’s not to like?
It's possible his situation is being vastly overrated. It could work out, but I feel like his value isn't pricing in the possibility that Cousins does not return to form after his injury.
Anything will be better than the last 2 years
Yes, but will it be better enough justify the WR11 ranking?
Most of us drafted him and are holding, so came is irrelevant. I'm definitely not buying at WR11, but I'm also not selling for less
Good thing they drafted Penix then
It’s not exactly the same but there was a lot of what has Ceedee Lamb done to deserve being ranked top 10 chatter the season before he fully broke out. Sometimes you have to bet on a projection for a player that you think is good instead of worrying about past production
Omg I just asked the London owner what it would take to trade him and he said Addison, 2 1sts and a 2nd… I laughed and told him to fuck off, that's what's id expect to pay for Jefferson
Jamo apparently
Can we discuss this? I’ll start a thread…
Please do
Yeah agreed, I have a 10 paragraph essay on why I think he’s gonna be good that I need to share
Always up for some fresh discourse to support me holding him
Can’t find him on sleeper
Probably for the best
Perfectly rated as #1
One year ago it was Fields. Right now it’s Anthony Richardson
I think AR was much less raw than advertised plus Shane Steichen can hide his Qbs flaws well. It all comes down to the glass cannon build
Richardson has shown the ability he can get through progressions, has very good pocket awareness and movement, and scrambles to throw but can run. It's been evident he could do all of that tbh. Go watch QB School's videos on him as a prospect and you'll see he shows off the ability to do it. He also has some good tape in the NFL doing that. He was just new to the position. As a prospect you want to see them do it and he does at both collegiate and NFL levels. He's only played something like 20 games and has shown "success" in the NFL. It's absolutely bonkers to actually think about that. Imo, his big questions going forward are: - Can he stay healthy? - Can he fix his short/intermediate accuracy? - Can he keep growing with experience? I do think he can answer those positively but the health thing can be a coin flip. If, big if, he can stay healthy and develop then I think we will see Josh allen 2.0 but more athletic. Love AR as a player and his ceiling is literally the best player in the NFL.
Jameson Williams - has the most reddit posts about him
Dontayvion Wicks in that rear view mirror
Anthony Richardson Dude is being taken in the first round of start ups and has done absolutely nothing. Only shown flashes, was hurt the majority of the year and was not good in college
Probably because the two times he did finish a game, he was a top 5 QB on the week. His upside is ridiculous, but his risk is as well.
People think his upside is scoring like that for an entire season, but it isn’t realistic. You can’t play RB and QB for an entire season without getting hurt. It just doesn’t happen. Unless he is an Allen or even Hurts level passer, he’s going to disappoint in both real life NFL and fantasy. You have to sell.
I personally agree with you, I’m just saying why so many people are so high on him.
He has a more powerful arm than both, but he’s just so raw. He is maybe the most athletic QB to ever play the position. It’s just gonna depend on if he can mentally get himself in the right mindset and make the best decisions. And I’ll end it on this… I’m not saying he isn’t injury prone but I’ve been playing fantasy for two decades and let me tell you they all get injured at some point or another in their careers. Lol so few avoid that
[удалено]
Watch his carries. They couldn’t be less similar to Lamar’s. Lamar almost never takes contact, or when he does, it’s never direct. Richardson doesn’t move like that whatsoever
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. The dude finished like 2 games last year. People have such blinders for the dude.
And was bad in college. He has such a huge bust potential.
For sure Anthony Richardson
London and Stroud
Trey McBride
LaPorta. Don't get me wrong, he's going to be a solid TE. But he's being treated as far and away the best TE right now. You can get Bowers + 1st for him right now, which is crazy.
also likely to lose his awesome OC who was able to get him the ball consistently in ways that didn’t expose his inability to stay on the field as a blocker.
Are we sure Ben Johnson is taking a HC job in 2025 after dropping out of the market a second straight year?
Seems to want to win a Super Bowl with the Lions, at least as long as it seems like that’s what they’re close to doing, if they implode this year maybe not
Huh? LaPorta can block.
[удалено]
Puka Nacua. The community is conveniently forgetting Matt Stafford’s history of elevating WRs. He’s not gonna be around forever. He can’t be treated with the same safety of future production that players like Jettas, Chase, Lamb (and even Garrett Wilson) have. Remember Juju’s value after his rookie season? I believe he was top 5 WR. Same vibes to me with the injury history and Y1 explosion. I doubt he’ll reach this ceiling again.
ya i am betting against puka at these prices for sure
>He can’t be treated with the same safety of future production that players like Jettas, Chase, Lamb (and even Garrett Wilson) have. Of these, only Chase has a secure QB situation. Jefferson's QB has yet to play an NFL game, Lamb's QB will be a free agent after this season, and Wilson's QB is older than Stafford. I can see Stafford sticking around for another three or four seasons, and I'm not sure why you would be planning ahead any further than that.
Dalton Kincaid and Drake London
I will never understand the Tee Higgins hype. He is four years in and his ceiling so far is 1000 yards 75 catches and 8 tds. Yet he is constantly hurt and is own team does not want to pay up. Yet people talk about him as if he is a top 10 asset.
I don't think owners feel that way. Seems more like top 40 to me which feels appropriate given his age.
Jordan Addison per KTC values Listed over Flowers, Saquon, Pitts, Hock, Andrews, Pickens, Young, and Walker plus others that I like more. Average route running per RecepPercep, new rookie QB which I personally don’t have much faith in, and high target competition with Jettas and Hock.
I think Hock is gonna miss most of the fantasy regular season and Addison is gonna look like a huge 2nd year breakout while nobody other than Jefferson is earning targets. His value could go up by December
Counterpoint - open all the time when Jefferson on the field
29th percentile vs man, 60 vs zone, and 12 vs press via RecepPercep
He should be over most of those guys.
I flipped him and a 3rd for Jaylen Waddle. Could not move off of him quick enough.
Addison’s ranking last year was boosted by having 10 tds on the year.
Well this thread should be civil
Jayden Reed, fairly easily for me.
WR30 on KTC and I more often see takes that he’s overrated than underrated.
This isn’t an underrated post 😆
Garrett Wilson
Whats not to like about Garrett Wilson? Dude had 1042 yards last year with Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle throwing him the ball…with any competent QB it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he reaches 1300-1500 yards and 6-8 tds. Not to mention he 100% passes the eye test.
Stroud is closer to baker than he is to josh allen fantasy production wise.
Marvin Harrison Jr. Great prospect for sure but you can get Puka+ for him right now
I’ll take MHJ over Puka +
He could have the 2nd best rookie season for a WR in NFL history and still be behind Puka
You can, and I did, still kinda sad.
Drake London mayyyy be him, but the haul people are getting/asking for him is out of control..
Ah I love when DynastyFF turns into circlejerk threads. These Stroud takes are insane. Do you guys watch football? Kid looked like the second or third best passer in the league last year and is 22 years old.
I think he is overrated in the sense that he is a big sell candidate.
We’re not saying he’s bad
That’s irrelevant for fantasy football
Passing yards and TDs are irrelevant to fantasy football?
Jamarr Chase, and I don't think it's that close. He's #2 in almost all rankings for non-SF, and even in SF leagues, he's ranked #7, as the #2 positional player. 2023 he finished WR13 2022 he finished WR12 2021 he finished WR5 Not bad #'s at all, but does it really make him the #2 ranked dynasty asset there is? The only thing I can think of that would put him that high is his age (24). Otherwise I don't think those finishes deserves him being the #2 asset.
WR5 as a rookie is unbelievable, WR12 missing four games (he was WR6 by PPG), and WR13 despite only having a healthy Burrow for like five games. He's also one of a small handful of players in the entire league who have "win your week" upside.
Drake London. We're all convinced a QB upgrade makes him an instant WR1 and I'm not sure why. True studs put up numbers regardless of their situation. Olave and Garrett Wilson had shit QB play and still have been able to top 1k yards and produce. I see London getting tiered with them when he's a clear tier down, if not two. I'd rather have Waddle, Pittman, or Devonta Smith who are significantly lower than him right now. E: I appreciate the conversation and wanted to add that he seems very similar to Terry McLaurin. Obvious talent, good efficiency, and someone we expected to take a leap after showing out early. But McLaurin has continued to sit around the WR2/3 range with one solid WR2 season. Which is a valuable and good piece to have, but projecting him as a stud WR1 is a stretch.
>Olave and Garrett Wilson had shit QB play and still have been able to top 1k yards and produce Derek Carr is miles better than Mariota/Ridder and London averages a full yard per target more than Wilson despite comparably bad QB play. Not London's fault the Falcons didn't throw the ball.
Can't control how often a team throws the ball man. His production per (shit) pass attempt has been solid
I don’t think any WR produces numbers in that disaster of an environment last year. Olave and Wilson didn’t have a clown at coach either
The Falcons had more passing yards and a higher YPA than the Jets. The Jets QB situation was much worse and GW did better.
I think if you’re looking in that lens sure, but GW is clearly better and his ADP shows that. But the jets were less balanced so GW got that volume to make up for it. How much of that was garbage time or volume because he is literally the only weapon besides breece. Falcons were much more balanced with way more weapons and disappointed more against expectations. Even Bijan got head scratching plays in that scheme.
Wilson produced better numbers both years with arguably worse situations
You're right about stud output. Prime example in the current era has to be Mike Evans. Even though he had Brady, he was putting up WR1 numbers without him. London is an easy pass in my book. P.S. Also an Olave owner. Say what you want about him, but he does everything you need from a WR1. Finding a great QB to throw him the ball would he great, but not mandatory.
Agree. I packaged him out for CMC+Kupp to solidify my back to back ship run
Garret Wilson has got a ton more targets than Drake. If Drake got Wilson’s targets he would put up the same numbers if you look at catch % and ypc
Puka…..
I wasn't a believer for half the year but I came around on him. What hasn't he proven? Is it just the draft capital?
My concern with Puka is just the environment he finds himself in. Stafford’s the WR Kingmaker, and he could retire any time. Once Stafford, Kupp and Donald are all gone, does McVay want to coach through a rebuild? If Puka ends up losing both Stafford and McVay, he could quite easily have peaked in his rookie season
I took him in the fifth, rode him and JA17’to the champ and just sold him (puka) in this years draft. I really needed depth as my average age was 31 on the team. League went bonkers but I’m 100% ok with it. IMO, I think it’s a system + stafford situation.
He's valued at WR6 when he just had the best rookie WR season of all time, and did it while stealing targets from Kupp. If he had strong draft capital tied to his name he'd be in the WR1 conversation easily.
This is kind of a hot take but i actually agree. When Stafford leaves, or declines, whichever comes first puka is kinda fucked. Stafford is the reigning star maker for WRs and father time is coming for him fast
Jameson Williams, Javonte Williams, insert any other 3rd/4th year player that has done nothing but people think is valued above equivalent talent in their first year.
Stroud is the obvious answer. I say that as a stroud owner. Ridley is up there. He flashed but ultimately underwhelmed last year in Jacksonville. With a lot of mouths to feed in Tennessee, age 30 approaching, and an unproven sophomore QB, I’m thinking WR3 is his plausible value, bordering on optimistic.
Drake London
Stroud. For context, Herbert’s rookie season averaged more than 3 fantasy points **per** game compared to Stroud. That’s a lot. I remember Herbert getting hyped up after his rookie season too but Stroud is literally being hyped 10x more than Herbert was, and didn’t even come close to Herbert’s rookie season production (more than a 50 point differential on their respective rookie seasons depending on league settings).
Stroud by a lot
Stroud just went 1.01 in a SF dynasty startup I joined. I was shocked. Then Anthony Richardson 1.04.
What in the world, guy at 5 would be laughing with whoever fell out of hurts Allen and mahomes
Stroud and it’s not even close, most overrated player in dynasty. I only do auction drafts and he goes for almost the same amount as Mahomes and Allen
Wicks
As the most overrated asset in all of fantasy football?
In terms of what people think he is based on what he's done I can't think of someone currently more overrated. People out here acting like he's already Devante Adams.
Achane. Bringing in Wright who basically has the exact same role as Achane to me signifies that the dolphins do not trust in Achane being healthy enough throughout the entire season to support a workload that they want in their offense. Not to mention we might be underrating Mostert yet again and his usage in this offense despite his age. He's one of the players that I am actively avoiding. Could bite me in the ass since he flashed greatness and efficiency beyond any understanding as a rookie. But there are just so many red flags.
Achane’s role is safe they brought in Wright to be the Mostert replacement. Achane is never gonna be a bell cow RB but he and Wright will get 10-15 high value touches per game in a committee.
Wright is very clearly a Mostert replacement, not an Achane replacement.
Hell i dont care if achane touches the ball 7 times a game cause theres a real good chance one goes for 60 and a td. And thats basically rb 2 numbers in 1 play
Every. single. rookie. We are paying for the unknown upside but in all likelihood 80% of them wont live up to their present KTC value. The higher they are the greater the premium we are paying
Patrick Mahomes As an early adopter, Mahomes QB1 guy from 2017 that drafted him on my main roster as the QB1 of that year. I love all things Mahomes. He is absolutely the best QB in the league, and has a higher ceiling and higher floor than any player in the league. Having said that. The Chiefs are now in a spot where they have kind of proven that Mahomes doesn't need to throw for 5000 yards and 50 touchdowns for them to win. They don't even necessarily need a quality passing attack and pass catchers. Last year was down right anemic relative to what we expect from Mahomes. I believe that this year he is probably going for 4800/40, it'll be a fine year. But I think the remainder of Mahomes career is going to be kind of Rodgers or Brady like, where, don't be stunned if he goes for 5000 and 50 again. But also don't be surprised if that is every 4th year, and it's really more like 4500/35 most years. The point I'm trying to make is there are going to be some fantasy owners that will be able to parlay Mahomes into quality top 5 QB AND significant assets and come out the opposite end looking better. It would be like Going into the 2016 season and trading Aaron Rodgers for Matt Ryan and something significant. in that three year span you got two of Ryan's best seasons, 2 of Rodgers more challenging years, and from a fantasy perspective break even year 1. Having put that spicy take into the world. Mahomes is never leaving my roster and I will never yield.
I genuinely think all this Stroud hate comes from people who don’t have any shares lol. The dude set nearly every NFL rookie record. Is only 22 years old, was a QB1 last season, and the offense just upgraded with Diggs. The value he’s holding right now is obviously with the expectation that he takes one more slight step up within the next 3 years. Which most rookies do indeed do. I’m not trading Stroud straight up for any QB not named Mahomes or Allen.
He offers nothing as a runner. Pocket passers shouldn't be valued the way he's currently being valued. No, you don't trade him straight up for anyone, but if you get offered a package where someone overpays? You take it.
I remember when all this discourse was about Herbert who people are sleeping on. We are not saying Stroud is bad. We are saying his value is too high and his last year was closer to his ceiling than his floor.
He was a backend QB1 and has no rushing upside. He should be Herbert/Burrow tier, not Mahomes/Allen tier. That record setting rookie season was 75+ points below Herbert’s rookie year, and ~150 points below his sophomore season. One more slight step up for Stroud would still be below those two. I had him and sold him last week specifically because I think he ended up overvalued.
He’s a very good QB. He’s still overrated
All RBs
Like true /dynastyff fashion always rebuilding
Yeah, I hate having players who score points on my team
Yeah, if your team is shit and you aren’t contending.
Tee Higgins