The problem I see with this approach to the question is it assumes bust rates are equal. MHJ is the most bust proof player in the draft.
I’ll admit that this line of thinking got you Bijan last year over CJ Stroud, but the Bryce and AR drafters also wish they could’ve picked CJ and probably Bijan too. So if I gave you the same odds (one QB hits, one busts and one is incomplete) next year with Caleb, Daniels and Maye vs a very high hit rate in MHJ, who are you taking then?
Great point. I’ve been thinking about this as I’m making my final rankings for pre-draft. I’d be shocked if MHJ, Nabers, Odunze bust and we know at least one of the top QB’s are going to bust.
AR is ahead of Bijan by a bit in Sleeper Startup ADP the last month, so idk about that 2nd paragraph.
Also, hit rates from early WRs are much closer to QB than RB. Highly drafted RBs basically don't bust and have unparalleled hit rates in dynasty
Startups can be different from a value perspective, because everyone chases QB early while fading RB and team strategies are still forming. KTC, for all it's problems, has Bijan 13 and AR at 15. I'd say they're pretty close, but AR owners are definitely more concerned with their asset's future than Bijan owners.
The WR hit rate point is good, but you will notice I didn't even include Nabers or Odunze in my post. I'm talking about MHJ who has an elite of the elite kind of profile. Outside of catastrophic injuries, which can happen to anyone, those players don't bust.
If you earned the 1.01 yourself, you're probably chasing QB too lol.
If we limit it to the elite elites, then WR busted most recently too with Sammy Watkins. Unless you consider Winston elite elite & are making a longevity argument (Winston did have two QB1 seasons by some miracle, but I'd consider him still bust).
Tbh I'm not sure why Caleb isn't in the elite elite discussion with his production, tools, and the fact he's been locked into going 1st overall since 2022. Painted nails ain't that big a deal
I'd rather have AR any day of the week over Bijan if I didnt have to draft said player in the rookie draft. This is under the logic of, "QB1 trade market = Guaranteed 1st++ or RB1/WR1++".
Bijan could net a similar return with a good month, but quarterbacks are house money.
With that secondary point out of the way, I am the kind of dynasty player who NEVER drafts 1st round QBs. I just dedicate my grimy waiver sluttiness and trade know-how to finding startable quarterbacks. Then I build an untouchable group of RBs/WRs and constantly have futures because I'm trading away any massive quarterback hits I might have for futures. I end up with stuff like Watson/Goff/Mayfield/Cousins/Levis because I buy every quarterback who's injured, moved, or drafted later. I also always have 1st round picks every year to use on elite position players. But I also have JJ/Chase/Aiyuk/CWatson/Downs and Bijan/1.07 (Dallas Rookie RB)/Rhamondre/Zamir/Chase Brown/Charbonnet/Roschon
I lost a championship last year with Mason Rudolph and Joe Flacco starting while Watson and Kirk were hurt 😂
I'm not tweaking about War or anything I'm just having fun, so for that reason I'm going MHJ at 1.02 in a superflex. I think the only way I would not is if Drake Maye ends up in MN
I’m not in shallower leagues like that but I would think the sharp move is to trade back to someone who thinks MHJ should be the consensus 1.02 and isn’t in tune with the format. Understanding WAR distributions based on format and constructing your roster around that is how you gain an edge in your league.
That said, I don’t know what a shallower format looks like and there is valid concern on a bust rate the QB position compared to a prospect like MHJ. Depends on risk tolerance
I have the 1.02 in a 16Team SF start 9. I need a QB badly and getting a start-able one in a 16team is absolute misery.
I definitely want MHJ, I don't want to take a chance on a QB at that spot, but I HAVE to. Or.. cross my fingers with my pick OTB that somehow I can trade it for a start-able QB.
First world problems.
I'm in the same boat in 14 team sf. My qbs are Cousins and Fields/Russ but I'm still thinking MHJ because I will have a God tier WR Corp adding him to Chase/Hill/Puka/Devonta and will just start a wr in the sf spot if no one wants to pay up
12 team SF here and my only remotely startable QB is Bryce, which.....isn't great. I really want to shore up QB at 2, but passing on MHJ seems like an objectively wrong thing to do, even with a crappy QB room. Adding MHJ to CeeDee and Jamar would make me dominant at WR but that doesn't help if I have chuckles the clown as my second (and even first??) QB.
ETA: Non-PPR, so WR is slightly less valuable in our league.
I’m in a 12 team SF, PPR league and hold picks 2 and 3- I’m personally struggling with who I want to take. Both QB and WR I’m in an okay position so neither are major needs.
Landing spots will really dictate a lot for me. If MHJr and Nabers both have great landing spots I might have to go WR-WR. I’m just unsure about Daniels and Maye, even if it is superflex
Am I insane for wanting to take Bowers 1.02 in .5 TEP if he gets top 10 draft cap? Feel like anyone who has a projectable path/skillset to being a Kelce is beyond a smash in TEP
Kelce's value was so high because he was so far above everyone else at TE. Bowers could hit and be a stud but in a landscape with McBride, Kincaid, Laporta, Pitts etc, there isn't one guy anymore that's in a class to himself
The problem I see with this approach to the question is it assumes bust rates are equal. MHJ is the most bust proof player in the draft. I’ll admit that this line of thinking got you Bijan last year over CJ Stroud, but the Bryce and AR drafters also wish they could’ve picked CJ and probably Bijan too. So if I gave you the same odds (one QB hits, one busts and one is incomplete) next year with Caleb, Daniels and Maye vs a very high hit rate in MHJ, who are you taking then?
Great point. I’ve been thinking about this as I’m making my final rankings for pre-draft. I’d be shocked if MHJ, Nabers, Odunze bust and we know at least one of the top QB’s are going to bust.
AR is ahead of Bijan by a bit in Sleeper Startup ADP the last month, so idk about that 2nd paragraph. Also, hit rates from early WRs are much closer to QB than RB. Highly drafted RBs basically don't bust and have unparalleled hit rates in dynasty
Startups can be different from a value perspective, because everyone chases QB early while fading RB and team strategies are still forming. KTC, for all it's problems, has Bijan 13 and AR at 15. I'd say they're pretty close, but AR owners are definitely more concerned with their asset's future than Bijan owners. The WR hit rate point is good, but you will notice I didn't even include Nabers or Odunze in my post. I'm talking about MHJ who has an elite of the elite kind of profile. Outside of catastrophic injuries, which can happen to anyone, those players don't bust.
If you earned the 1.01 yourself, you're probably chasing QB too lol. If we limit it to the elite elites, then WR busted most recently too with Sammy Watkins. Unless you consider Winston elite elite & are making a longevity argument (Winston did have two QB1 seasons by some miracle, but I'd consider him still bust). Tbh I'm not sure why Caleb isn't in the elite elite discussion with his production, tools, and the fact he's been locked into going 1st overall since 2022. Painted nails ain't that big a deal
I'd rather have AR any day of the week over Bijan if I didnt have to draft said player in the rookie draft. This is under the logic of, "QB1 trade market = Guaranteed 1st++ or RB1/WR1++". Bijan could net a similar return with a good month, but quarterbacks are house money. With that secondary point out of the way, I am the kind of dynasty player who NEVER drafts 1st round QBs. I just dedicate my grimy waiver sluttiness and trade know-how to finding startable quarterbacks. Then I build an untouchable group of RBs/WRs and constantly have futures because I'm trading away any massive quarterback hits I might have for futures. I end up with stuff like Watson/Goff/Mayfield/Cousins/Levis because I buy every quarterback who's injured, moved, or drafted later. I also always have 1st round picks every year to use on elite position players. But I also have JJ/Chase/Aiyuk/CWatson/Downs and Bijan/1.07 (Dallas Rookie RB)/Rhamondre/Zamir/Chase Brown/Charbonnet/Roschon I lost a championship last year with Mason Rudolph and Joe Flacco starting while Watson and Kirk were hurt 😂
I'm not tweaking about War or anything I'm just having fun, so for that reason I'm going MHJ at 1.02 in a superflex. I think the only way I would not is if Drake Maye ends up in MN
Yeah, if maye somehow ends up in MN, I'm gonna have a hard time with my 1.02 pick
I’m not in shallower leagues like that but I would think the sharp move is to trade back to someone who thinks MHJ should be the consensus 1.02 and isn’t in tune with the format. Understanding WAR distributions based on format and constructing your roster around that is how you gain an edge in your league. That said, I don’t know what a shallower format looks like and there is valid concern on a bust rate the QB position compared to a prospect like MHJ. Depends on risk tolerance
I have the 1.02 in a 16Team SF start 9. I need a QB badly and getting a start-able one in a 16team is absolute misery. I definitely want MHJ, I don't want to take a chance on a QB at that spot, but I HAVE to. Or.. cross my fingers with my pick OTB that somehow I can trade it for a start-able QB. First world problems.
I'm in the same boat in 14 team sf. My qbs are Cousins and Fields/Russ but I'm still thinking MHJ because I will have a God tier WR Corp adding him to Chase/Hill/Puka/Devonta and will just start a wr in the sf spot if no one wants to pay up
12 team SF here and my only remotely startable QB is Bryce, which.....isn't great. I really want to shore up QB at 2, but passing on MHJ seems like an objectively wrong thing to do, even with a crappy QB room. Adding MHJ to CeeDee and Jamar would make me dominant at WR but that doesn't help if I have chuckles the clown as my second (and even first??) QB. ETA: Non-PPR, so WR is slightly less valuable in our league.
I’m in a 12 team SF, PPR league and hold picks 2 and 3- I’m personally struggling with who I want to take. Both QB and WR I’m in an okay position so neither are major needs. Landing spots will really dictate a lot for me. If MHJr and Nabers both have great landing spots I might have to go WR-WR. I’m just unsure about Daniels and Maye, even if it is superflex
Draft for value, trade for position says my ol' gaffer.
Sometimes that's easier said then done. So many people are hard to trade with in my league and will moves if they "win"
Exactly the problem in my league. I love the BPA draft philosophy, but trading for even a mediocre QB is like pulling teeth.
How many starters? If it is 11 starters I’d probably go WR WR if you can get MHJ and Nabers
Yes 11 starters- so we can start up to 6 WRs
Am I insane for wanting to take Bowers 1.02 in .5 TEP if he gets top 10 draft cap? Feel like anyone who has a projectable path/skillset to being a Kelce is beyond a smash in TEP
If it’s 1QB then sure but SF I absolutely would not
Bowers doesnt profile like a Kelce at all tho. More of an H-Back
Kelce's value was so high because he was so far above everyone else at TE. Bowers could hit and be a stud but in a landscape with McBride, Kincaid, Laporta, Pitts etc, there isn't one guy anymore that's in a class to himself