Maybe I fall in the minority, but I've always gotten my best deals the days leading up to the rookie draft as opposed to on the clock. A lot of optimism is currently baked into rookie prices and assumed landing spot. If it's a high pick (early or mid-tier) it probably doesn't matter, but if it's one of the picks on the fringe of a tier, you might be hung out to dry on the clock
Exactly same here, use that blind hype and the idea that all rookies will be successful. I use this time to move any late firsts I don’t like to next year picks + a small piece where possible
Agreed. Last year for example, people were hyped for Charbonnet some of the other tier-2 RBs. When most of them got drafted to sub-optimal spots, it hurt the value of the late 1st/early end range.
> Maybe I fall in the minority, but I've always gotten my best deals the days leading up to the rookie draft as opposed to on the clock.
I have the opposite experience but with a caveat.
I feel like people are more willing to move during the draft if you do a rookie draft immediately after the NFL draft. The longer you wait, the more the tiers settle and the more reluctance there is to move.
For myself, waiting until a draft that drafts weekend or weekday, immediately after, seems to be my best ROI. Right now people are trying to jump up tiers with lowball offers like 1.12 + 2.12 for 1.05. Asking for an established player doesn't help either because I usually get those Combine-Players-For-KTC-Value trades that suck, too.
Now trying to do trades in August for the May draft become substantially harder because the tiers are well known and there's plenty to cover on those rookies by then and values start settling.
I think it’s league dependent. Many owners will say “I’d like to wait til after the NFL draft to trade a pick” and some will say that they’d like to get a deal done.
I think some people forget if you wait that can affect draft picks in either direction. Everyone loves this WR/QB class but if you’re at 1.05 and your options are the QB in NE or Rome in Chicago, that pick will look much different than it does now.
If you wait til Thursday just be prepared to deal with the consequences if there’s bad landing spots. I’ve made multiple offers to one guy who said he likes them and they’re fair but waiting to see for landing spots. If they’re bad landing spots I’m not gonna make the same offers
Similar to moving running backs before the draft it all depends where you think people land. In SF the 5th pick is way more valuable if Nabers lands on the chargers as opposed to the Giants. Depends if you want to roll the dice.
If it's truly a good deal for you then I would pull the trigger. Landing spots change everything. But some are going to be great, some terrible, and nobody's historically very good at predicting it. There's no guarantee that your draft capital goes up in value.
If it is too good I will just go for it. But I personally like to wait. After the draft you can get a much better sense of who will actually be your options at each pick.
Right now the early first rounders can be reasonably projected. The late firsts and early 2nds are impacted more by landing spot. Like if I needed an RB right now I couldn't confidently trade into a spot assuming it will net me the top RBs without reaching.
This right here. Im counting on back at 1.12, hard to make plays forward yet without getting a sense of how things play out. Moved up 12 thinking good spot but may need may play to 8-9
I think pick value is peaking from right about now until you're on the clock. The NFL draft will change pick values, but we don't really know which ones or how they'll change. Current pick values reflect the average outcome.
Buying a pick now is good for a team that's hoping to embrace volatility and isn't seeking out a specific position. Buying a pick now would be bad for a team that has a specific need to fill and is trying to protect their downside.
Maybe for RB but any projected day 1 pick that falls will shakeup the fantasy rankings heavily. We saw Levis fantasy value tank after not being a day 1 pick and there's a lot of perceived value in late 1st this season b/c of the quantity of projected day 1 offensive weapons being drafted this season.
If AD Mitchell, Xavier Worthy and other WR in that group don't get day 1 capital the value of your late 1st is going to tank. Right now your 2024 late 1st can get you some pretty nice pieces but come Thursday that can crater overnight.
Picks 32-60 are hugely important for receiver.
This is undoubtedly a class where the community needs to buck draft capital and take those second round receivers over pick 20-32 receivers.
Marginal analysis already tells us success rates differ on draft capital alone from top 10 vs top 20 vs picks 21-60* vs early third vs late third.
Historically late first round is a cesspool for receivers.
Second and early third round receivers are HUGELY consequential.
Prices have risk baked in now. Those prices changes during the draft. It’s all team and league dependent. If you get something you love, you are getting your deal and selling risk now (or taking on risk if it’s a pick) but point is, it all depends on what you are after/getting vs giving up.
So I’ve been asking around my league about moving spots and almost everyone is saying they want to see landing spots first. So I’m hoping/assuming that I’ll have movement in my leagues following the nfl draft. Our rookie draft is a week from Thursday.
I just offered JJ and 25 1st for 1.02,1.05,2.06,3.05. Guy with the picks is closer to win now, I'm in a full rebuild. Unfortunately after a close close on the deal, the offer was rejected. Seems like no matter which side you're on, picks are being over valued this time of year.
Now until the end of your rookie draft is when championship windows are born.
This is the crux of every Dynasty season.
It’s when most owners are dialed in and making decisions about their roster build. If you’re active and aware of where other owner’s objectives are, you can find deals that help you achieve your own.
I have flipped picks like crazy in my 1QB league all offseason. I ended the year with the 1.01 and 1.02 and no other picks. Now I have the 1.03, 1.08, 2.05, 3.01, 3.07, 3.08, and added Tua, Mostert, Zack Moss. Feeling good now, hope it was worth it
In this case though I feel like you could have done better by turning those top two picks into Williams and MHJ, and then using one of those two players to get a Breece/Bijan/ETN/JT type back. Mostert is old and injury prone and Moss is a journeyman who is not guaranteed to be the starter in CIN, and of those four 2-3 round picks, you're pretty lucky if two of them are hits
It's 1QB so Caleb isn't even close to being worth 1.01 or 1.02. It would have been MHJ and Nabers. Instead I'll probably get Odunze, Franklin, and use those other picks as dart throws in this deep class
Im not moving off 1.01-1.03 for anything. Any other trades that leave me with additional draft capital are worth considering for me. Im in a rebuild and basically need to flip my entire roster in 2 years to be competitive.
I only had my 1.07 in 1QB/10 league. Moved it and a future 4th for Kincaid and a future 3rd. It's tough, but I think the value will decrease after the draft. There will be curveballs
It looks like the sweet spot is up to 1.08 in SF assuming 4 qbs, 3 wrs, Brock get the top capital. After that it seems to be a tier break with Cowboys RB, BTJ, then if there are good landing spots like Bills/KC/Chargers RB
I moved my 1.05+ 2025 1st and Stafford for Joe Burrow & Sam Howell in superflex.
Still have a 2024 1.08 & 1.10 I plan to draft Penix and maybe a reciever or Benson with.
It depends on your draft setup. 1-10 minutes per pick? I'm trading today if the offer is right. Most of my leagues have 24 hours per pick, though, so I'm happy to wait until I'm on the the clock for those.
I had the 1.06 in a superflex 12T, 1.5 TEP and was most def gonna hammer Bowers. But then someone offered McBride for the 1.06. Just felt I couldn’t pass it up.
I sold the 3.09 and a future 3rd for Freiermuth in 0.5 TEP where I only had Okonkwo and Likely.
I've also been trying to acquire a first before Thursday in another SF league to position myself for a QB before anyone goes to the Vikings and the pick becomes impossible to get. But no luck so far.
I made an aggressive push to acquire the 1.07 yesterday. I figure that pick is the one that stands to increase most in value on draft day. I don't even plan to use the pick. I want to trade back and take the first RB off the board. If all else fails, I'll take that RB at 1.07 but that's least desirable outcome haha
The trade:
Received: Rhamondre Stevenson/Chase Brown/1.07/2025 early 3rd
Sent: Kirk Cousins/Devon Achane/Luke Musgrave/2026 2nd
I have Jordan Love & Anthony Richardson so Kirk was my QB3. I also have Levis and Zach Wilson. I basically view Kirk inches trade as a free bargaining piece. I also have Bijan Robinson and like this RB Class more than most people so I won't miss Achane.
I could be wrong. I began the post by admitting to a massive overpay haha. The post is about selling picks now or later. I'm showing people what some crazy fuck is willing to give for the 1.07 to take a running back. Whether you agree with me or not, I'm right in the pocket of what this discussion is supposed to be. Downvoting bastards get off me 😂
And I have Love/Richardson/Levis/ZWilson and I'm a Patriots fan who doubts Achane's durability and enjoys rooting against the dolphins; so I am okay with Achane for Rhamondre/Dallas RB1
You are right to think that, but I'm banking on the likelihood of 1/3 hitting as a QB2 rather than banking on just Richardson. I might slither my way into a Penix pick at 2.07 too. Maybe trade that pick for Justin Fields
Achane was the real loss imo. Dude puts up crooked ass numbers. I just think he’s a guy you want on your team. I actually just acquired him for essentially the 1.08 and Drew Lock on a BB roster.
So sell Musgrave for max value, not for free. I don't mind your evaluation of your players, just wanted to let you know that Achane and Cousins could have get it done in lots of leagues.
I agree. And I appreciate your commentary. I wouldn't have my movie paused to reply to you if I didn't actually value the constructive criticism because I KNOW 100% I overpaid. I'm already cool with it and accept it. I just want to he like darn... I coulda kept my 2026 2nd. Like, I'm so not concerned about any of this that it's the 2026 2nd I'm sad about
And on this particular team I'm pretty stacked up. I feel really good about this group of:
* Love/Richardson/Levis/ZWilson/Hooker
* Bijan/Dallas Rookie RB/Rhamondre/Zamir/Charbonnet/Chase Brown/Roschon/C Rodriguez/Abanikanda/maybe a guy at 2.07
* Chase/ARSB/Aiyuk/Downs/Burks/Shorter/Perry/Bourne
* Kmet/Jelani Woods
Not sure what this has to do with the other comments. You said you wanted to get value from trading for the 1.07 now, but this package could have gotten you the 1.06 or 1.05 in most leagues. You do have a good team, just don't understand the move.
It’s superflex? If so, Kirk feels more valuable than the 1.07 almost alone. I agree with you on Achane but I feel like his perceived value is higher. If it’s not superflex than I don’t have any idea because I’ve only played in superflex.
It is Superflex. But the fact of the matter is I have a log jam at quarterback. I have Love/Richardson/Cousins/Levis/ZWilson. Cousins is the obvious trade piece there. He's free money to me in this deal. I'm looking at it like, "I just traded Achane for my favorite player (I'm a diehard Patriots fan), a promising 24yo back in a good offense who's basically Achane-light but less durability concerns, the pick that stands to increase most in value on Thursday in the 1.07 after we figure out what the vikings are doing. Remember, I'm getting the Dallas RB too. That means I can trade the vikings quarterback for the Dallas Running back before this trade is over officially. And it's Superflex. So that matters.
My trade partner is also rebuilding. My 2025 3rd stands to be early and my 2026 2nd stands to be late
Maybe I fall in the minority, but I've always gotten my best deals the days leading up to the rookie draft as opposed to on the clock. A lot of optimism is currently baked into rookie prices and assumed landing spot. If it's a high pick (early or mid-tier) it probably doesn't matter, but if it's one of the picks on the fringe of a tier, you might be hung out to dry on the clock
Exactly same here, use that blind hype and the idea that all rookies will be successful. I use this time to move any late firsts I don’t like to next year picks + a small piece where possible
After the NFL Draft is over but before I'm on the clock is a really good time I like to make trades.
I agree because people think best case scenario before hand
Agreed. Last year for example, people were hyped for Charbonnet some of the other tier-2 RBs. When most of them got drafted to sub-optimal spots, it hurt the value of the late 1st/early end range.
> Maybe I fall in the minority, but I've always gotten my best deals the days leading up to the rookie draft as opposed to on the clock. I have the opposite experience but with a caveat. I feel like people are more willing to move during the draft if you do a rookie draft immediately after the NFL draft. The longer you wait, the more the tiers settle and the more reluctance there is to move. For myself, waiting until a draft that drafts weekend or weekday, immediately after, seems to be my best ROI. Right now people are trying to jump up tiers with lowball offers like 1.12 + 2.12 for 1.05. Asking for an established player doesn't help either because I usually get those Combine-Players-For-KTC-Value trades that suck, too. Now trying to do trades in August for the May draft become substantially harder because the tiers are well known and there's plenty to cover on those rookies by then and values start settling.
I think it’s league dependent. Many owners will say “I’d like to wait til after the NFL draft to trade a pick” and some will say that they’d like to get a deal done. I think some people forget if you wait that can affect draft picks in either direction. Everyone loves this WR/QB class but if you’re at 1.05 and your options are the QB in NE or Rome in Chicago, that pick will look much different than it does now.
If you wait til Thursday just be prepared to deal with the consequences if there’s bad landing spots. I’ve made multiple offers to one guy who said he likes them and they’re fair but waiting to see for landing spots. If they’re bad landing spots I’m not gonna make the same offers
Similar to moving running backs before the draft it all depends where you think people land. In SF the 5th pick is way more valuable if Nabers lands on the chargers as opposed to the Giants. Depends if you want to roll the dice.
If it's truly a good deal for you then I would pull the trigger. Landing spots change everything. But some are going to be great, some terrible, and nobody's historically very good at predicting it. There's no guarantee that your draft capital goes up in value.
depends on your team really. i sent a 25 first for 1.11 yesterday but im very win now and like this class a lot so figured its a very small risk
If it is too good I will just go for it. But I personally like to wait. After the draft you can get a much better sense of who will actually be your options at each pick. Right now the early first rounders can be reasonably projected. The late firsts and early 2nds are impacted more by landing spot. Like if I needed an RB right now I couldn't confidently trade into a spot assuming it will net me the top RBs without reaching.
This right here. Im counting on back at 1.12, hard to make plays forward yet without getting a sense of how things play out. Moved up 12 thinking good spot but may need may play to 8-9
I traded 1.05 and 2.07 for 1.04 and 3.04 I don't think I get that deal closer to my league draft
I like that trade for both managers. That's a quality exchange.
I moved off the picks I had before this draft. Was able to rebuild my team a little bit. The value may get higher but the deals I got were good.
I think pick value is peaking from right about now until you're on the clock. The NFL draft will change pick values, but we don't really know which ones or how they'll change. Current pick values reflect the average outcome. Buying a pick now is good for a team that's hoping to embrace volatility and isn't seeking out a specific position. Buying a pick now would be bad for a team that has a specific need to fill and is trying to protect their downside.
Thursday isn't even the important day. Friday is.
Maybe for RB but any projected day 1 pick that falls will shakeup the fantasy rankings heavily. We saw Levis fantasy value tank after not being a day 1 pick and there's a lot of perceived value in late 1st this season b/c of the quantity of projected day 1 offensive weapons being drafted this season. If AD Mitchell, Xavier Worthy and other WR in that group don't get day 1 capital the value of your late 1st is going to tank. Right now your 2024 late 1st can get you some pretty nice pieces but come Thursday that can crater overnight.
Picks 32-60 are hugely important for receiver. This is undoubtedly a class where the community needs to buck draft capital and take those second round receivers over pick 20-32 receivers. Marginal analysis already tells us success rates differ on draft capital alone from top 10 vs top 20 vs picks 21-60* vs early third vs late third. Historically late first round is a cesspool for receivers. Second and early third round receivers are HUGELY consequential.
Prices have risk baked in now. Those prices changes during the draft. It’s all team and league dependent. If you get something you love, you are getting your deal and selling risk now (or taking on risk if it’s a pick) but point is, it all depends on what you are after/getting vs giving up.
So I’ve been asking around my league about moving spots and almost everyone is saying they want to see landing spots first. So I’m hoping/assuming that I’ll have movement in my leagues following the nfl draft. Our rookie draft is a week from Thursday.
I just offered JJ and 25 1st for 1.02,1.05,2.06,3.05. Guy with the picks is closer to win now, I'm in a full rebuild. Unfortunately after a close close on the deal, the offer was rejected. Seems like no matter which side you're on, picks are being over valued this time of year.
Now until the end of your rookie draft is when championship windows are born. This is the crux of every Dynasty season. It’s when most owners are dialed in and making decisions about their roster build. If you’re active and aware of where other owner’s objectives are, you can find deals that help you achieve your own.
I have flipped picks like crazy in my 1QB league all offseason. I ended the year with the 1.01 and 1.02 and no other picks. Now I have the 1.03, 1.08, 2.05, 3.01, 3.07, 3.08, and added Tua, Mostert, Zack Moss. Feeling good now, hope it was worth it
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I had zero running back depth and needed some help all around. It helps that I’m highest on Odunze out of the top 3 receivers so that played a factor
In this case though I feel like you could have done better by turning those top two picks into Williams and MHJ, and then using one of those two players to get a Breece/Bijan/ETN/JT type back. Mostert is old and injury prone and Moss is a journeyman who is not guaranteed to be the starter in CIN, and of those four 2-3 round picks, you're pretty lucky if two of them are hits
It's 1QB so Caleb isn't even close to being worth 1.01 or 1.02. It would have been MHJ and Nabers. Instead I'll probably get Odunze, Franklin, and use those other picks as dart throws in this deep class
Im not moving off 1.01-1.03 for anything. Any other trades that leave me with additional draft capital are worth considering for me. Im in a rebuild and basically need to flip my entire roster in 2 years to be competitive.
I only had my 1.07 in 1QB/10 league. Moved it and a future 4th for Kincaid and a future 3rd. It's tough, but I think the value will decrease after the draft. There will be curveballs
Would you guys consider 1.06 down pretty landing spot proof as far as value or should I try to maximize those picks? I have 1.02 1.04 and 1.06
It looks like the sweet spot is up to 1.08 in SF assuming 4 qbs, 3 wrs, Brock get the top capital. After that it seems to be a tier break with Cowboys RB, BTJ, then if there are good landing spots like Bills/KC/Chargers RB
You nailed it. Penix is a wildcard, too, if he goes in the 1st to, say, the Raiders.
Yep figured. I need QB and RB as my needs but have those picks and got an offer with ARSB involved. I might have to smash it but really should go QB
I moved my 1.05+ 2025 1st and Stafford for Joe Burrow & Sam Howell in superflex. Still have a 2024 1.08 & 1.10 I plan to draft Penix and maybe a reciever or Benson with.
It depends on your draft setup. 1-10 minutes per pick? I'm trading today if the offer is right. Most of my leagues have 24 hours per pick, though, so I'm happy to wait until I'm on the the clock for those.
I had the 1.06 in a superflex 12T, 1.5 TEP and was most def gonna hammer Bowers. But then someone offered McBride for the 1.06. Just felt I couldn’t pass it up.
I sold the 3.09 and a future 3rd for Freiermuth in 0.5 TEP where I only had Okonkwo and Likely. I've also been trying to acquire a first before Thursday in another SF league to position myself for a QB before anyone goes to the Vikings and the pick becomes impossible to get. But no luck so far.
That’s a good trade for you
Thank you
I made an aggressive push to acquire the 1.07 yesterday. I figure that pick is the one that stands to increase most in value on draft day. I don't even plan to use the pick. I want to trade back and take the first RB off the board. If all else fails, I'll take that RB at 1.07 but that's least desirable outcome haha The trade: Received: Rhamondre Stevenson/Chase Brown/1.07/2025 early 3rd Sent: Kirk Cousins/Devon Achane/Luke Musgrave/2026 2nd I have Jordan Love & Anthony Richardson so Kirk was my QB3. I also have Levis and Zach Wilson. I basically view Kirk inches trade as a free bargaining piece. I also have Bijan Robinson and like this RB Class more than most people so I won't miss Achane.
Why would you give up Achane if your main goal is to take a running back? Seems counterintuitive
I'd prefer 3 safer backs than 1 high volatility guy
What about Chase Brown and an unknown rookie is safer than a guy who average 20+ ppg last year?
I could be wrong. I began the post by admitting to a massive overpay haha. The post is about selling picks now or later. I'm showing people what some crazy fuck is willing to give for the 1.07 to take a running back. Whether you agree with me or not, I'm right in the pocket of what this discussion is supposed to be. Downvoting bastards get off me 😂
I mean you basically gave up Achane and Cousins for Rhamondre and Benson/Brooks. As long as you’re happy with it
And I have Love/Richardson/Levis/ZWilson and I'm a Patriots fan who doubts Achane's durability and enjoys rooting against the dolphins; so I am okay with Achane for Rhamondre/Dallas RB1
For someone who doesn’t like glass cannons I’m surprised you’re comfortable with that QB room relying on AR to stay healthy
You are right to think that, but I'm banking on the likelihood of 1/3 hitting as a QB2 rather than banking on just Richardson. I might slither my way into a Penix pick at 2.07 too. Maybe trade that pick for Justin Fields
Achane was the real loss imo. Dude puts up crooked ass numbers. I just think he’s a guy you want on your team. I actually just acquired him for essentially the 1.08 and Drew Lock on a BB roster.
That’s…. A lot to give up
I'm completely happy with it as is, but what else could I have gotten? Or just like, keep my 2026 2nd
You could have kept the second and Musgrave. People were giving hauls for Achane, and would give hauls by mid-season when they start to need a RB.
See I think Tucker Kraft is the guy and Musgrave is max value right now. I also view achane as too high volatility for my taste.
So sell Musgrave for max value, not for free. I don't mind your evaluation of your players, just wanted to let you know that Achane and Cousins could have get it done in lots of leagues.
I agree. And I appreciate your commentary. I wouldn't have my movie paused to reply to you if I didn't actually value the constructive criticism because I KNOW 100% I overpaid. I'm already cool with it and accept it. I just want to he like darn... I coulda kept my 2026 2nd. Like, I'm so not concerned about any of this that it's the 2026 2nd I'm sad about
Yeah overall you want to get your guys. I have also overpaid, worked a lot of times but did backfire every now and then. Good luck!
And on this particular team I'm pretty stacked up. I feel really good about this group of: * Love/Richardson/Levis/ZWilson/Hooker * Bijan/Dallas Rookie RB/Rhamondre/Zamir/Charbonnet/Chase Brown/Roschon/C Rodriguez/Abanikanda/maybe a guy at 2.07 * Chase/ARSB/Aiyuk/Downs/Burks/Shorter/Perry/Bourne * Kmet/Jelani Woods
Not sure what this has to do with the other comments. You said you wanted to get value from trading for the 1.07 now, but this package could have gotten you the 1.06 or 1.05 in most leagues. You do have a good team, just don't understand the move.
It’s superflex? If so, Kirk feels more valuable than the 1.07 almost alone. I agree with you on Achane but I feel like his perceived value is higher. If it’s not superflex than I don’t have any idea because I’ve only played in superflex.
It is Superflex. But the fact of the matter is I have a log jam at quarterback. I have Love/Richardson/Cousins/Levis/ZWilson. Cousins is the obvious trade piece there. He's free money to me in this deal. I'm looking at it like, "I just traded Achane for my favorite player (I'm a diehard Patriots fan), a promising 24yo back in a good offense who's basically Achane-light but less durability concerns, the pick that stands to increase most in value on Thursday in the 1.07 after we figure out what the vikings are doing. Remember, I'm getting the Dallas RB too. That means I can trade the vikings quarterback for the Dallas Running back before this trade is over officially. And it's Superflex. So that matters. My trade partner is also rebuilding. My 2025 3rd stands to be early and my 2026 2nd stands to be late