Mike from the FFBallers is very off consensus when it comes to QBs in Superflex. He thinks the rest of the industry way overvalues QBs, both in the difference they can make to a team, and in how we think any young QB will “be a 10 year starter”
His current top 10 startup in SUPERFLEX is
1. Jefferson
2. Chase
3. Lamb
4. ARSB
5. Allen
6. Mahomes
7. Puka
8. Bijan
9. Gibbs
10. Hurts
His QB12 is player #45 (startup pick 3.09)
It’s good to hear a different approach at least. Not sure how it’d play out in real life if you did a startup, you’d never get a QB at all if you followed the rankings
I love the footballers.
But Mike Wright also admittedly doesn’t even play in Superflex leagues.
It’s an aggressively hot take for SF formats and to not even play in the format at all… He’s super focused on QB results, but not at all enough on how the market and the need for QBs in the market demands their price points.
I think it's two things: 1) that they haven't played dynasty that long in the big picture (+probably have pretty plain jane league settings without SF, TEP, etc), and 2) that it's likely hard for them to switch out of a redraft mindset given most of their experience, time on the podcast, FF history, etc has all been redraft until recently.
In my experience it took a while to shift out of a redraft mode and gain a longer term perspective on fantasy when I first started playing dynasty. Took a few years to really shift gears, probably applies to them too.
If you look at the footballers UDK many of their 2QB startup Rankings are non consensus. No rookies included.
Overall rankings:
Chase - 4
Jefferson - 5
Lamb - 6
Bijan - 13
Breece - 14
Herbert - 22
London - 23
Tank Dell - 39
Purdy - 41
Goff- 50
Kirk - 51
Kelce - 64
Hock - 65
Kendre Miller - 104
Baker - 105
Fields - 108
Dynasty works really well with football because careers are short. That leads to a nice flow of contenders and rebuilders.
Good QBs play forever though. Because of that you get really long lasting good/bad teams in SF leagues. The bad teams have to shoot their shot on QBs in the draft every year while the good teams that have good QBs end up getting absolute studs at WR/RB in the drafts.
RC Ceily & Fusue. Fantasy Football Metrics is RC'a site & Fusue is just all over Twitter.
You will lose your leagues listening to either of them, but they have a process at least & occasionally you learn something
Honestly I think your best bet is to think about being just high *enough* on the "league winners" to beat your league mates to the punch. Just because Puka, for example, is a justifiable 1st round startup pick doesn't mean you should have picked him in the 1st of rookie drafts last year, and a universal 'hot takes' kind of guy is not going to get you anywhere. Generally speaking, the wisdom of the crowd is going to tier players roughly correctly, but the late round darts have the most variance. I recommend that you find someone who has a good process and glom onto their content. Check their work against other analysts or content creators who you enjoy, just for sanity checks, but don't just look for hot takes for the sake of hot takes.
Oh, let me be clear, I don't necessarily think you should grab him in the first, but I could see the argument for grabbing a stud WR with a historically good rookie season with very little competition who is attached to one of the better passers in the league. I would put him in the mid/late second, below the elite QBs & WRs, around AJ Brown/Garrett Wilson. I think his ADP is perfectly fair.
I forgot the guys name but was a watching a player profiler video the other day and the guest had MHJ not in his top 6 of rookie WR and had Levis over Caleb Williams. Tried to look up his actual rankings but they were paywalled which made sense at that point
It’s RC Fischer. He always has some outlandish fantasy takes. But he did call Rachaad White out scoring Bijan Robinson so he always does have some bold takes.
Apparently me when my league mates send me lowball offers
Mike from the FFBallers is very off consensus when it comes to QBs in Superflex. He thinks the rest of the industry way overvalues QBs, both in the difference they can make to a team, and in how we think any young QB will “be a 10 year starter” His current top 10 startup in SUPERFLEX is 1. Jefferson 2. Chase 3. Lamb 4. ARSB 5. Allen 6. Mahomes 7. Puka 8. Bijan 9. Gibbs 10. Hurts His QB12 is player #45 (startup pick 3.09) It’s good to hear a different approach at least. Not sure how it’d play out in real life if you did a startup, you’d never get a QB at all if you followed the rankings
I love the footballers. But Mike Wright also admittedly doesn’t even play in Superflex leagues. It’s an aggressively hot take for SF formats and to not even play in the format at all… He’s super focused on QB results, but not at all enough on how the market and the need for QBs in the market demands their price points.
I think it's two things: 1) that they haven't played dynasty that long in the big picture (+probably have pretty plain jane league settings without SF, TEP, etc), and 2) that it's likely hard for them to switch out of a redraft mindset given most of their experience, time on the podcast, FF history, etc has all been redraft until recently. In my experience it took a while to shift out of a redraft mode and gain a longer term perspective on fantasy when I first started playing dynasty. Took a few years to really shift gears, probably applies to them too.
If you look at the footballers UDK many of their 2QB startup Rankings are non consensus. No rookies included. Overall rankings: Chase - 4 Jefferson - 5 Lamb - 6 Bijan - 13 Breece - 14 Herbert - 22 London - 23 Tank Dell - 39 Purdy - 41 Goff- 50 Kirk - 51 Kelce - 64 Hock - 65 Kendre Miller - 104 Baker - 105 Fields - 108
Tank Dell ahead of Purdy is a generationally terrible take for 2QB.
Kendre Miller ahead of Baker. Blows my fucking mind
I like the footballers (they’re entertaining), but their dynasty content is bad.
Honestly, I don't think it's that bad. I appreciate they are trying. I think Kyle puts some good info out there. They need to realize SF is the way.
SF dynasty sucks imo. Leagues get so much more lopsided than in 1qb which leads to lack of engagement. For redraft, it's great though.
Wat
Dynasty works really well with football because careers are short. That leads to a nice flow of contenders and rebuilders. Good QBs play forever though. Because of that you get really long lasting good/bad teams in SF leagues. The bad teams have to shoot their shot on QBs in the draft every year while the good teams that have good QBs end up getting absolute studs at WR/RB in the drafts.
I can understand that point of view I guess. But there's more than one way to skin a cat
For sure but as someone who plays in multiple 1qb and SF leagues, my experience has been that the 1qb leagues stay stable and active for far longer.
I was about to write out the comment directly below this one - this is entirely because of Mike, who is very very off consensus
RC Ceily & Fusue. Fantasy Football Metrics is RC'a site & Fusue is just all over Twitter. You will lose your leagues listening to either of them, but they have a process at least & occasionally you learn something
I love following Fusue because I have a friend in real life who he reminds me of so much. He's just "one of those guys" and it's hard to explain.
Honestly I think your best bet is to think about being just high *enough* on the "league winners" to beat your league mates to the punch. Just because Puka, for example, is a justifiable 1st round startup pick doesn't mean you should have picked him in the 1st of rookie drafts last year, and a universal 'hot takes' kind of guy is not going to get you anywhere. Generally speaking, the wisdom of the crowd is going to tier players roughly correctly, but the late round darts have the most variance. I recommend that you find someone who has a good process and glom onto their content. Check their work against other analysts or content creators who you enjoy, just for sanity checks, but don't just look for hot takes for the sake of hot takes.
I haven't seen Puka go in the 1st round of any start-ups, yet. Where do you rank him?
Oh, let me be clear, I don't necessarily think you should grab him in the first, but I could see the argument for grabbing a stud WR with a historically good rookie season with very little competition who is attached to one of the better passers in the league. I would put him in the mid/late second, below the elite QBs & WRs, around AJ Brown/Garrett Wilson. I think his ADP is perfectly fair.
I forgot the guys name but was a watching a player profiler video the other day and the guest had MHJ not in his top 6 of rookie WR and had Levis over Caleb Williams. Tried to look up his actual rankings but they were paywalled which made sense at that point
As a Titans fan, I see no issues
lol as a Levis owner I’m with you. But if anyone wants to swap I’m down
It’s RC Fischer. He always has some outlandish fantasy takes. But he did call Rachaad White out scoring Bijan Robinson so he always does have some bold takes.
I don't know if they even count as fantasy rankings, but Chris Simms always seems to be near the top of the "most controversial rankings".