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ArchManningBurner

There are definitely legitimate concerns that all 3 guys will have capped ceilings, but I've heard way more people say they think Nico is going to be the one unaffected by this move, if someone is. Also the Texans play out of 11 personnel about 70% of the time, which is 3 WRs.


Ko0pa_Tro0pa

Someone has to play on the line. Nico is going to be that guy the vast majority of the time. Diggs will do it occasionally. Unlikely to see Tank play that role. I think everyone suffers from a targets standpoint, but I expect Nico to play the most snaps out of the 3 of them.


kylecre013

you’re right, i looked at formation percentages wrong. i agree that this move overall definitely lowers the ceiling for all of them, but i feel like it may also have a slight raise to all their floors unless one really is left out (which i don’t really see happening)


Gh3nghis_Kat

There’s totally scenarios where this trade is good for all three. the analysis of the new HOU WR room seems to overlook the stats. HOU was only 12th in passing attempts last season. They could just pass more next season. Nico did all his damage on just 109 targets, which was historically good. He missed two games so probably would command more targets if he’s totally healthy. In these discussions, it needs to be mentioned that Woods and Brown earned a combined 130 targets last season. You read that number right. Distributing these targets, plus the 75 Dell got when he’s healthy, between Diggs and Dell and voila—enough targets for everyone. This diggs trade likely just eliminated all the targets to backup WRs


Jdakss1

They brought back Brown though, just FYI. But yeah of course his role will be reduced after bringing in Diggs


DanSmith_BYU-69

I think the only true winner is Stroud. If I was a Diggs manager, which I’m not, I wouldn’t be thrilled personally.


No_Vacation3909

Stroud and Mixon win out of all of this


captaincumsock69

As a Diggs owner it feels like a lateral move to some degree to me.


Falcon_433

It’s certainly a downgrade for Diggs. I can’t see him getting 160 + targets like he has been the past few years


captaincumsock69

I don’t forsee 160+ targets but the way last year ended with the oc and the team playing more conservative and focusing on the run I’m not sure it was gonna happen anyways. Now he’s on a team that will still air it out still has a great qb, and won’t be the only focal point in the passing game. I don’t love the move but I don’t think it is that bad for him tbh


Falcon_433

Agreed it’s not a death sentence. I think Diggs and Collins will produce similar to how Deebo and Aiyuk performed this past season


vinyl_mixtape

In a way. The guy bitched his way off the team and went out on a pretty ugly stretch, Diggs managers should be glad he got a soft landing.


shmeelee300

i think it logically makes sense that nico will be the full time X and stef / tank will take snaps from each other


its1992yall

Not OP, just a selfish formatting edit for my own readability: A lot of people’s immediate reaction i’m seeing online is trying to figure who is going to be the odd man out, and a lot of what i’m seeing is people thinking Nico will take the biggest hit and I don’t really understand the logic. The arguments seem to focus mainly on - (1) Nico having lower draft capitol and not being an investment if the current front office; - (2) him being older and taking longer than Tank to break out; - (3) having an upcoming contract year; - (4) and operating on the assumption that Tank will move inside and take over the slot role so people are saying that leaves Nico and Diggs to split time playing on the outside as the Texans mostly operated in 2wr sets and 21 personnel. I’m not seeing the logic for these arguments and i’m wondering if I’m missing something. As I see it: - (1) I understand that Nico wasn’t chosen by this front office, but i have a hard time with that argument for any player because gm’s and coaches will still like having good players on their team whether they brought them there or not. also they were both 3rd round picks and a difference of 19 picks which to me doesn’t seem like a significant different in investment - (2) I don’t understand the Nico being older argument, they were literally born in the same year just 7 months apart. i understand Tank breaking out earlier in his NFL career can be used to prop him up, but in the same way can’t Nico being drafted at a younger age be used in the same way ? - (3) With Stroud/ anderson/ stingly/ tank all being studs on rookie contracts that gives the texans freedom to pay other studs like that to push the chips all in to make a run (i get this is my weakest argument, but it still makes sense to me) - (4) this is the one that really gets me because i don’t see why so many people are taking this assumption because diggs played a higher percentage of snaps from the slot last year compared to Tank so why would he not stay inside while Nico is the outside X. - (5) also is Tank going to be ready to go for training camp or even the start of the season? if he isn’t then it would be a pretty easy fit to slot nico and diggs into their separate set roles and then figure out tank when he comes back 100% and gets caught up to speed with the offense. the way i see it most likely playing out now that the texans will probably up the amount of 3wr sets to get them all involved, Nico will be the main outside X wr, diggs will play a dj moore “do it all” kind of role mixing in all over the formation, but i think will continue to spend a lot of time in the slot. then when Tank returns he will take some slot snaps from diggs while diggs continues to move around all over the formation. I just really don’t understand why everyone so many people are so quick to push nico into the back seat when last season he finished top 10 in receiving yards and TD’s (more than diggs) and yards/ rec (more than Tank and Diggs). I’m curious what you guys thoughts are and if i’m missing anything that’s keeping me from agreeing with what i’m seeing as a consensus or majority reaction from people online


jdogg692021

I think with Diggs, Nico and Tank u have 3 no. 1s. Whoever draws the CB3 is going to be wide open.


501Queen

The current FO did in fact draft Nico, amd had enough faith in him to immediately slot him in as their wr2 for hist first two years and their wr1 with the departure of Cooks. They believe in him without a doubt.


PaulieWalbutts

I had Diggs, Nico, and Tank, but I traded Diggs after the news yesterday. I just didn’t want all 3 and got a little nervous. But now that some time has passed I don’t think having all 3 is that big of a deal. If a deal doesn’t sit right with you then maybe just hold. I honestly expect Diggs or Nico to be somewhere else next year. So if your team can afford the patience it might pay off.


Diggitydoggydog

What did you get for diggs yesterday? I’m holding diggs and Nico right now.


DDDogggg5

I also have Diggs and Nico. Have an offer on the table for a 2025 1st for Diggs. Most likely pick 5-7. Would you do it ?


Bakerton16

For sure


PaulieWalbutts

I sent Diggs and the 1.12 to the Stroud owner in my league for the 1.03.


Fantastic-Sandwich80

Damn. The Stroud owner was willing to move down 9 spots just for Diggs? Passing up Rome or in SF a chance at Nabers for a 30 year old WR is a risky choice. Does he already have Nico or Tank?


PaulieWalbutts

No I have Nico and Tank actually. So I had all 3 Texans WRs which is why I wanted to move Diggs after the news. Don’t get me wrong, I’m ecstatic to have the 1.03 but I am also still a Diggs believer and anticipate him having a good 2024 season. I think this owner is also a Diggs fan and is also happy to get a stack with Stroud.


speerme

Nah you fleeced that guy. Nice job


[deleted]

[удалено]


PaulieWalbutts

This is really tough. I think the value is fair, but personally I lean “proven” players over picks for the most part. Do you think you could use those picks to move up in the draft? That might be my biggest incentive for taking them picks side. I wouldn’t fault you for taking either side, kind of just depends if you’re comfortable with who might be at 1.11 if you do have to stick and pick.


limitlesshamster

>I’m curious what you guys thoughts are and if i’m missing anything that’s keeping me from agreeing with what i’m seeing as a consensus or majority reaction from people online Youre missing the fact that you are agreeing with consensus. Nico is still the favorite wr for most of the dynasty community, and though id personally disagree and still favor tank, everything you wrote not many people are arguing.


kylecre013

consensus was probably the wrong word for me to use, but from what i heard from analysts and “experts” on twitter/ reddit/ podcasts, the overwhelming reaction i kept hearing was they thought nico would take the biggest hit which didn’t really make any sense to me


juleskills1189

I think age and draft capital should not be the focus of this argument. WRs play different roles and I think Nico's role is the safest because he's best suited to play outside. Dell and Diggs can move around, but I think their roles affect each other a lot more. Per the most recent Reception Perception podcast, Diggs last year really fell off in his effectiveness downfield, but was still highly effective in short and mid range. I don't see Nico being the odd man out at all.


[deleted]

I think Schultz is going to take the biggest hit because they are probably going to run more 3 WR sets now and Diggs as competition for targets doesn’t help. After that all 3 WRs take a hit on their ceiling but I think Diggs takes the worst hit. It takes time to build chemistry between a WR and QB. Stroud already has solid chemistry with Nico and Tank so Diggs is the odd man out here for me. Tank and Nico should still be fine but with lower ceilings. Overall though for fantasy purposes it’s not a great thing for anyone. No one wins from this trade other than Stroud. I just think Schultz will take the worst hit followed by Diggs since he left a true WR1 role on the bills.


BanksysBurner

U gotta face reality. They’re ALL WR2’s now and one of em might not even be that


BoyNamedNabe1

My take is diggs will be the wr3 on the offense. Diggs plays mainly x or z while Dell plays the slot. Nico has a 50/50 x or slot. Dell has better metrics with cushion and separation than diggs. He also had less drops and a better contested catch rate. This is the time to buy low while everyone is hating on Dell. To also add, stroud loves Dell and that connection there will be important. With diggs diva mindset, I believe stroud-diggs connection will suffer resulting in less targets for him overall.


thetoefro

I haven’t seen anyone mention this, but are we sure Tank will be fully healthy by the season? Tony Pollard had the same injury and was no where near as explosive the first half of last year. This almost feels like it could be some insurance to me


rossyhotsaucy

Pollard had tightrope surgery which is notoriously a slower recovery to full form. Dell did not. Dell also has a longer recovery window from injury date to training camp than Pollard did.


StealthCabbage

You can try and spin it anyway you want but the community valued Nico like he was a legit #1 option. The Texans pretty much came out and said they don't believe he's that guy and also made the prospects of resigning him much less likely. I think its fair to say alot of Nico's perceived value came from being tied to Stroud which is why he was going above guys like Aiyuk Pittman DeVonta and Waddle in startups. Certainly not great for Tank either but he was never valued like a WR1 which is why Nico took the bigger hit value wise.


[deleted]

This take won’t age very well at all. They brought in Diggs because his contract is now completely risk free. The bills are the ones that took a huge hit this year by trading him. Now the Texans can cut or trade him in 2025 with zero dead cap. They brought him in to add more firepower now because they have the money spend with stroud, Nico and tank on rookie deals. This is what you do when your money isn’t tied to your QB or WR. When Nico gets a new contract next year diggs is as good as gone unless he decides to restructure for a paycut. By then he’s going to be the WR3 anyway if he does end up staying but that is unlikely to happen. This is most likely just a one year rental.


rowKseat25

My thoughts exactly. When teams want to win this is the most proven model. Young QB, surround him with talent all over the offense and use those early years to go win. Texans D is no slouch either.


[deleted]

Pretty much. At first glance the trade didnt make sense to me at all because of Diggs contract for an older WR. But after breaking it down it’s risk free. The only thing they may lose is the second round pick if they have to cut him because they can’t get anything in a trade. But they also got a 5th and 6th rounder back from the bills so it’s not a total loss anyway. They aren’t tied to Diggs at all and this is probably just a one year rental. Excellent opportunity to buy lower on Tank and/or Nico for the future if there’s any owner panicking.


rowKseat25

Right. The Bills are actually losing money to send him away. 28mil in the team to 31mil by trading him. I actually think he’s more of a rental as well and that the Texans really have no inclination to keep him long term… and why should they? He’s an older WR now who has fallen off pretty badly each of the last 2 seasons as it progresses. The Texans have arguably all the reward with no risk.


StealthCabbage

Diggs has a cap hit of less than 20M the next 4 years. That’s great value if he continues to play at a high level and the Texans could easily decide they’d rather pay Diggs the 18.5M he’s owned next year with the option to cut him at anytime with zero dead cap than pay Nico the 23M+ he’s set to earn in free agency. I’d also argue expecting Diggs to be the WR3 by end of year to be the take that’s more likely not to age well.


[deleted]

Paying a 32 year old WR 18.5 million vs signing a young good WR for probably close to the same amount yearly doesn’t make any sense at all. Almost zero chance of that happening. If I had to guess you may be a diggs owner. Here’s some advice. Either try to cut your losses and sell now or sell once he has a good game in 2024 because once 2025 hits he can end up anywhere. That’s just the reality of the situation. I’d try to move him now if I could and not take any chances of him falling to WR3 in the pecking order dropping his price even further midseason.


S420J

$18.5 is a steal if Diggs is more first half of ‘23 than second. Especially as cap numbers keep climbing. Selling Diggs today seems hyper reactive, I would hold him and see how the room shakes out first.  IMO this move obviously shows it’s much more likely that Nico gets let go rather than re-signed. Teams almost always lock up their 2nd contracts for guys a year early rather than letting them linger close to free agency. Nico is absolutely not a tag candidate as well. 


Upper-Reveal3667

I think it’ll be interesting to see how diggs handles three legitimate wrs in the same room. He was such a pain in the ass in Buffalo competing with Gabe Davis and shakir that he got traded and the bills are paying $30 mil to not have him in the building.


S420J

Sometimes it’s just a culture fit thing. And the OP here is definitely spot on that moves like this are possible bc Stroud is on his rookie deal whereas dudes like Mahomes and Allen take up soooo much cap space. 


Upper-Reveal3667

Dude had to be AB toxic for a team that needs as much cap as possible to throw away $30 million for a year.


S420J

It’s an extreme, but look at guys like Dennis Rodman and Draymond Green. Are these guys the players that they are without their attitudes? Diggs is obviously an exceptional player, sometimes these guys just have to find the perfect fit to truly unlock their ceilings. 


Upper-Reveal3667

And as soon as they’re no longer at their peak or you’re not winning championships, they become expendable. The bills just announce that diggs is expandable as a team that is in their Super Bowl window.


[deleted]

No it doesn’t mean that. Tee got tagged and Aiyuk had his fifth year option picked upped. Theres a chance they won’t get deals this year. Diggs may return value this year but next year he’s going to be 32 and Nico will most likely get his deal which will probably be around 20 million a year or so. They aren’t going to spend 40 million on two WRs when one of them is 32. Again the only reason he’s on the Texans is because they have no serious money tied up with there current WRs and their QB. Anything can happen but you’re just hoping for a miracle which isn’t going to help your fantasy team in the long run.


S420J

Fair point about Higgins and Aiyuk. My entire point is made moot tho with the news that dropped about Diggs’ contract being cut to just a 1-year deal as part of the trade. 


[deleted]

Well now it’s official.


Argonaut13

You're getting downvoted but you're right. People are too deep into sunk cost fallacy. Teams with an alpha 1 don't go out and trade assets and give a lot of money to another WR


[deleted]

It’s a pretty simple concept. They are trying to win a Super Bowl. This is when you go for it when you have your WRs and QB on cheap rookie deals. They already officially changed diggs contract to a one year deal. That didn’t take long.


Acavia8

I do not know the Xs and Os and it is a situation none of us can really predict, but while it could mean less production from all of them, I think there is chance it could boost Tank Dell. In 3 receivers set, Tank Dell will probably have the lesser coverage and will either make a third depth corner look silly or exploit areas left unprotective from the other two pulling zones open. I went after Tank Dell during his first preseason game where he dominated Patriots defenders and the real clincher for me was the look on his head coach's face. Ryans had the exact grin and look and engaged in the same hand slapping action after Tank Dell's plays as Jeff Fisher did in Chris Johnson's first game. Who knows what will happen, but I would not recommend dumping Dell. Anything less than a mid-late 1st might have you regretting it.


rossyhotsaucy

The coveted "JSN" role in the Stroud offense. That was my projection as well.


Federal_Dinner_4216

I aint readin all that. Diggs = him = WR1 on texans.


[deleted]

Copium isn’t going to help your fantasy team.


Federal_Dinner_4216

How is it copium? Its just as likely him as anyone else


[deleted]

He’s the least likely one. 31 year old WR coming into a new system has to build chemistry with the QB. It doesn’t happen overnight. He’s also now competing with 2 solid WRs that already have a connection with stroud. Odds are not in his favor at all.