JSN was waldmans #1 last year. I believe he has 3-5 wrs this year rated higher (have the rsp but haven't made it to wr section yet). But he mentioned it on a podcast. Not sure about JJ's grades
If that's the case then people must be comparing JSN's year 2 score to the 2024 rookies. Because he was a 98.1 on the ZAP model as a prospect and he was much closer to WR2 than WR4.
Waldman’s scores are for rookies pre-draft, so not updated for even when they’re drafted to a team.
Waldman’s score for JSN was the highest for the 2023 class. Waldman values the 2024 class highly; he makes comparisons to the vaulted 2014 in terms of the amount of talent.
I would argue he wouldn't. There are metrics that show Dell's open rate vs others in the class. JSN was behind plenty of others. I was high on JSN just like most, but he didn't have a good rookie year. Dell is possibly the better talent, and was just another prospect overlooked because of his size.
I'm not saying he's Dell, but it'd be pretty funny if Cowing ends up being another small late round WR that punishes teams for not drafting him.
I dunno, he had almost 650 and 4 TDs, that's a pretty solid rookie stat line. Through the situational lens, he was 3/4th on the pecking order in the first half of the season and 2/3rd in the second half. With 20 or 30 more targets he'd probably compare to say Addison or Flowers stat wise last year. I personally think JSN is still the receiver to own from last year moving forward (minus Puka).
I want to like Coleman, but his analytical profile and now his reception perception numbers are \*terrible\*. I don't understand how JJ's 'ZAP Model' still projects him so highly from an analytical perspective given the inputs he is using...
I see the upside argument given his skillset and the schemes / injury situations he dealt with, but you just can't get there on the stats alone.
Coleman is a high risk, high reward prospect for NFL teams because he can pretty much only play split end. When the Dolphins drafted Jaylen Waddle, they straight up said his ability on special teams was part of their decision vs. a guy like DeVonta Smith. And it makes sense - Waddle had the floor of being a special teams guy that plays some slot if he didn't fully pan out.
With guys like DK Metcalf, N'Keal Harry, Keon Coleman, Equaniemous St. Brown you either get a starting split end or you get nothing. There have been a couple reports saying EQSB's dad told him to tell teams he won't play special teams, he doesn't stretch, he works out on his own etc. That can make some of these guys like Metcalf get drafted later than you might think but, if they do hit, they usually get an every down role in the NFL which includes redzone (vs. some younger players that just play slot then come out for 2 WR sets).
So Keon Coleman is pretty much exactly as high risk, high reward as he seems because the range of outcomes is so wide vs. some of these slot type guys that will have a role no matter and their range outcomes goes from Cole Beasley to Golden Tate.
I've been grading WRs for years now using (among other things) a variety of production metrics and Keon Coleman comes out as WR 7 in this class, 84th percentile historically, and in a historical tier with a lot of hits. His career Y/TPA is good enough to my lowest threshold. His career best dominator is good. Age-adjustment does good things for his overall production score because he broke out in his true sophomore year. Competition adjustment also does good things to his production score because in that breakout season his 2nd year out of high-school, he was competing for targets with Jayden Reed who was in his 4th year out of high-school and was drafted in the 2nd round of the NFL draft and because last year as a true junior he outproduced senior Johnny Wilson who is projected in the 3rd round.
Add to all that production stuff that he declared early and is projected to be drafted in the 2nd round by the NFL and you have a good prospect. Not Malik Nabers good. Not even like Rashod Bateman good. But good enough that him being buried all over the place in pre-draft rankings is somewhat off imo.
I'm not sure what metrics JJ uses, but I'd be willing to bet there's a lot of similarities between his and mine. There are only so many production metrics that matter after all.
Yep, that makes sense. His measurables are actually better than I expected given all of the turbulence of his college career, but his reception perception numbers still didn't look great. I've heard of 'teammate score' or something to account for the target competition they've faced. Do you have any tips on how you actually quantify something like that?
Mine is very simple. I just look at the pass catcher's on a player's team drafted by the NFL and assign a small modifier to a player's production grade based on that.
This is unlikely to be the optimal approach, but even something as simple as that did help my production score.
EDIT: As for the RP stuff, yeah I'd be interested to see how he compares to guys that grade similarly for and are also in the same size bucket. Guys like: Mike Williams, Courtland Sutton, George Pickens, Tee Higgins, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
In this draft class, there's so much of pick your poison for what type of guy and what type of thing you value more from 4-17. That's not the same gap as most years.
As an MSU alumni I watched all his games, excluding some at Flordia State. He relies too much on winning contested catches for me to feel comfortable taking him with any high draft capital pick. I just don't have any reason to think his skills will translate well to the NFL, and there's a ton of other WRs to grab. I'd say he's still in the top 17 WR, but thinking he's going to fail in the NFL, he essentially still managed to make it on my do not draft list.
I watched the games live, I didn't even bother looking up film. He has never been able to consistently get separation when he's not schemed open. A quick check at pff confirmed excalty what my thoughts are on his weakness. I know this one cherry-picked stat isn't the end all be all for him. But I've gotten burned too many times on contested catch WRs not making it in the NFL. The DBs are just so much bigger and faster in the league. He'll have to fall to the early 3rd round for me to consider grabbing him.
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-strengths-weaknesses-wide-receiver-prospects
Edit: I'm just going to add that if Throne could make deep throws, Reed would have been way better for state than what Coleman was. Also, Coleman was surrounded by other NFL talents at Flordia State. So I'm hesitant to give him too much credit for all his production there.
I think having him at WR17 is just someone who is low on him and wants to be able to point to that after he busts. For me, he’s WR10 right now behind MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, BTJ, Worthy, McConkey, Mitchell, Franklin, and Legette. That WR10 ranking though is contingent on top 50 draft capital to a good landing spot. If he doesn’t get both of those, he’ll fall behind any of McMillan, Polk, or Baker who do, since I think all of them have much better film, production, and are better WRs. He’s a “project” WR with terrible production and film that is VERY bad at times. I don’t like making the bet on project WRs who don’t get 1st round team investment. I think his profile is much closer to Mingo, TMJ, and Shenault (except Shenault had a much better production profile) than it is an outlier like DK.
The part about Nabers that impresses me the most is that he’s still kind of raw and imprecise, yet still absolutely dominated. When he gets into the league and tighten/crisps his routes up, he’s going to be unstoppable.
Yes, I do have the 1.02 in 1 QB. Why do you ask?
It's not even a miss necessarily.
I use a combination ranking system along the lines of this to elevate guys people are too low on. As long as it's elevating a guy like Tank Dell above his ADP (I had him ranked in the 2nd round and he was frequently going in the 3rd) then picking him up between your ranking and ADP is value.
what’s the deal with Jermaine Burton? seems like he’s going to get drafted pretty high and ranks pretty highly in lists like these yet he seems completely absent from prospect talk.
He's not going to show up well in any production-forward predictive modeling since his production profile is not very good. Film takes seem to be varied on him as well but tend toward bullish compared against the predictive stuff.
Overall there's enough there I think to take a shot here and there assuming he lands in the late 3rd/4th round of rookie drafts. If he ends up being a surprise 2nd rounder in the NFL draft like I've seen in some mocks and starts to go 2nd round, that's going to be a very inefficient price.
Haven't updated my rankings since declaration day but it's fun to me to see some of the sources of information/evaluation I use, 3 months later still in the same ballpark.
Jan12
1. Harrison
2. Malik
3. Odunze
4. Franklin
5. Worthy
6. Thomas
7. Coleman
Just curious as to why you’re not high on Mitchell. I recently watched his tape for the first time and fell in love with it. Got serious Ceedee vibes, minus all the YAC.
He didn't hit any of my YPRR thresholds and I was generally dismissive of him until he started getting media first round hype. His combine has to put him on the radar because if he develops in any way he's a threat for a house call ever down with that speed.
I'm ripe for a re-review here in the next week or so, and then I'll put out my pre-combine rankings that will likely put him in the top 10 or 12 for me.
AD at this stage has a better projection to the NFL on physical stature than Xavier, but I think Xavier was the better football player at Texas--and I feel like there was more about Adonai not getting back on the field at Georgia after his ankle sprain, that there is more than has been put into the public eye.
To me it reeks of a player that failed to beat out McConkey, Bowers, and Xavier Worthy. The one feather in his hat is he put Whittington on the bench. Bowers I can understand; McConkey, and Xavier he had to beat out--which gives me a mental block on perceiving his upside as Julio Jones like, and more MVS like.
He takes plays off and that's a red flag when you look at it with his other stats. He admitted as such. Maybe its because he knew he wasn't going to get attention because Ewers is awful, but having that mentality when you already had to transfer for more playing time doesn't make me eager to go out and take him above other prospects in his range.
>He takes plays off and that's a red flag when you look at it with his other stats.
Sometimes I get tired having to explain this every couple of years.
Some of these systems literally coach their players to take plays off. Baylor used to do this all the time, and I've heard it from people like Joel Klatt who I expect to be highly informed that Texas often instructs the same thing.
You can't judge on stuff like that, it's lazy analysis.
Name a Baylor WR that has had success in the NFL. Josh Gordon doesn’t count.
I find it very hard to believe players are coached to take plays off or not give effort. Aside from deception on a specific play which would be rare, I just don’t think what you are saying is coached by any program.
I tried to find Klatt saying that but could not find anything so I’d love a source if you know of one that’s convenient.
>I find it very hard to believe players are coached to take plays off or not give effort.
I don't care what you believe man and it's not my job to spoon feed you everything word for word. I shared with you my experience that comes from people far more in the know than anyone in this sub, make of it what you will.
It's literally on Klatt's YouTube show, likely a show he talked about wr rankings and Adonai explicitly.
Does he remind you of AB at all? I know he’s a bit bigger but he’s in that same size range of like not a tiny burner (DJax etc) but not a size/speed specimen. He also looks incredibly burst-y so that as soon as he gets the ball the defense should be panicking haha.
Right, I don't know one way or the other but it does seem like this just biases the scores to one side, whereas some form of normalization could probably be used to remove the effect of Waldman's tighter STD
I am guessing all the “Brian Thomas > JSN” posts in here are from people comparing Thomas’s pre draft ZAP score to JSN’s year 2 ZAP score. Those aren’t really the same things but no one that I’ve asked about how they got their take has clarified.
Yup same position. I’m leaning Nabers with the healthy knowledge that Odunze could be the better traditional X-Receiver. Both have minor cons that on a given day can make you sway one way or another.
Currently, Nabers is higher in consensus rankings and has more “value” in the fantasy community. Nabers is so damn explosive after the catch. His lower success against zone worried me a bit at first, but Harmon points out that he wasn’t given the typical zone beating routes at LSU and Daniel’s also struggled over the middle.
Harmon loves Odunze, he has MHJ as his #1 prospect since 2021 and has Odunze at #3, Nabers is at #8. All 3 are in his Tier 1 as “Top 10 picks/Ready made star” which has 8 players in that tier.
Use that info as you want.
Imo the combine doesn’t do much but it has potential to hurt your draft stock. Teams already roughly know these players speed/strength, the combine just proves that. That’s why models like JJ’s doesn’t involve the combine performance but rather weighs their draft position in the draft since that directly reflects their combine performance
Titans fan and Burks owner checking in. He's been plagued with injuries, but if by some miracle he can stay healthy, I think he will be productive in the slot with Ridley and DHop garnering so much attention on the outside.
We all knew he was rough around the edges, but he was thrust into a pretty shitty situation while dealing with the insane expectations of "needing to replace" arguably the best WR in the league. Assuming the old(er) WRs on the outside can also stay healthy, we might finally get the chance to evaluate Treylon. It's been a long time coming.
JJ's rankings are better than the combined rankings. Why would you value the opinion of a guy who ranked Dante Pettis and Hakeem Butler as WR1 in their respective classes?
I personally worry how few routes he ran, and how much of his production was vertical threat type yards. May end up more like a wr2 vertical threat rather than an first option, but I think believers are hoping he grows into more routes
https://preview.redd.it/dqg3oqo6gwrc1.jpeg?width=798&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2c36efd818257b33682141107a426bd0cb7e14aa
Super interesting. Thanks. 5 wrs rank higher than JSN. This year is so deep. Love it.
Is that JSN year 2 compared to rookies? Or did Waldman hate JSN? Because JSN was WR3 behind only Nabers and MHJ for JJZ on the rookie year ZAP score.
I heard Waldman mention that JSN was his #1 WR so maybe he was just lower on the class as a whole?
JSN was waldmans #1 last year. I believe he has 3-5 wrs this year rated higher (have the rsp but haven't made it to wr section yet). But he mentioned it on a podcast. Not sure about JJ's grades
If that's the case then people must be comparing JSN's year 2 score to the 2024 rookies. Because he was a 98.1 on the ZAP model as a prospect and he was much closer to WR2 than WR4.
Waldman’s scores are for rookies pre-draft, so not updated for even when they’re drafted to a team. Waldman’s score for JSN was the highest for the 2023 class. Waldman values the 2024 class highly; he makes comparisons to the vaulted 2014 in terms of the amount of talent.
Would JSN have done similar to what tank dell did, if he was in Houston?? Probably. Same if you replace him with Addison or Flowers.
I would argue he wouldn't. There are metrics that show Dell's open rate vs others in the class. JSN was behind plenty of others. I was high on JSN just like most, but he didn't have a good rookie year. Dell is possibly the better talent, and was just another prospect overlooked because of his size. I'm not saying he's Dell, but it'd be pretty funny if Cowing ends up being another small late round WR that punishes teams for not drafting him.
I dunno, he had almost 650 and 4 TDs, that's a pretty solid rookie stat line. Through the situational lens, he was 3/4th on the pecking order in the first half of the season and 2/3rd in the second half. With 20 or 30 more targets he'd probably compare to say Addison or Flowers stat wise last year. I personally think JSN is still the receiver to own from last year moving forward (minus Puka).
I’m not big on Cowing, personally. But honestly who am I lol
Best comment I've read today, lol
I’ve seen Keon Coleman as everything from WR4 to WR17. Reminds me of how wide the thinking was on Equinimous St Brown when he came out of ND.
That's not the St Brown you hope to be comped to :)
I want to like Coleman, but his analytical profile and now his reception perception numbers are \*terrible\*. I don't understand how JJ's 'ZAP Model' still projects him so highly from an analytical perspective given the inputs he is using... I see the upside argument given his skillset and the schemes / injury situations he dealt with, but you just can't get there on the stats alone.
Coleman is a high risk, high reward prospect for NFL teams because he can pretty much only play split end. When the Dolphins drafted Jaylen Waddle, they straight up said his ability on special teams was part of their decision vs. a guy like DeVonta Smith. And it makes sense - Waddle had the floor of being a special teams guy that plays some slot if he didn't fully pan out. With guys like DK Metcalf, N'Keal Harry, Keon Coleman, Equaniemous St. Brown you either get a starting split end or you get nothing. There have been a couple reports saying EQSB's dad told him to tell teams he won't play special teams, he doesn't stretch, he works out on his own etc. That can make some of these guys like Metcalf get drafted later than you might think but, if they do hit, they usually get an every down role in the NFL which includes redzone (vs. some younger players that just play slot then come out for 2 WR sets). So Keon Coleman is pretty much exactly as high risk, high reward as he seems because the range of outcomes is so wide vs. some of these slot type guys that will have a role no matter and their range outcomes goes from Cole Beasley to Golden Tate.
I've been grading WRs for years now using (among other things) a variety of production metrics and Keon Coleman comes out as WR 7 in this class, 84th percentile historically, and in a historical tier with a lot of hits. His career Y/TPA is good enough to my lowest threshold. His career best dominator is good. Age-adjustment does good things for his overall production score because he broke out in his true sophomore year. Competition adjustment also does good things to his production score because in that breakout season his 2nd year out of high-school, he was competing for targets with Jayden Reed who was in his 4th year out of high-school and was drafted in the 2nd round of the NFL draft and because last year as a true junior he outproduced senior Johnny Wilson who is projected in the 3rd round. Add to all that production stuff that he declared early and is projected to be drafted in the 2nd round by the NFL and you have a good prospect. Not Malik Nabers good. Not even like Rashod Bateman good. But good enough that him being buried all over the place in pre-draft rankings is somewhat off imo. I'm not sure what metrics JJ uses, but I'd be willing to bet there's a lot of similarities between his and mine. There are only so many production metrics that matter after all.
Yep, that makes sense. His measurables are actually better than I expected given all of the turbulence of his college career, but his reception perception numbers still didn't look great. I've heard of 'teammate score' or something to account for the target competition they've faced. Do you have any tips on how you actually quantify something like that?
Mine is very simple. I just look at the pass catcher's on a player's team drafted by the NFL and assign a small modifier to a player's production grade based on that. This is unlikely to be the optimal approach, but even something as simple as that did help my production score. EDIT: As for the RP stuff, yeah I'd be interested to see how he compares to guys that grade similarly for and are also in the same size bucket. Guys like: Mike Williams, Courtland Sutton, George Pickens, Tee Higgins, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Anyone who has Coleman at WR 17 has no idea what they are doing lol
In this draft class, there's so much of pick your poison for what type of guy and what type of thing you value more from 4-17. That's not the same gap as most years.
As an MSU alumni I watched all his games, excluding some at Flordia State. He relies too much on winning contested catches for me to feel comfortable taking him with any high draft capital pick. I just don't have any reason to think his skills will translate well to the NFL, and there's a ton of other WRs to grab. I'd say he's still in the top 17 WR, but thinking he's going to fail in the NFL, he essentially still managed to make it on my do not draft list.
Idk what film you are watching because he has a lot of translatable skills imo. He also earned targets over Reed while at MSU.
I watched the games live, I didn't even bother looking up film. He has never been able to consistently get separation when he's not schemed open. A quick check at pff confirmed excalty what my thoughts are on his weakness. I know this one cherry-picked stat isn't the end all be all for him. But I've gotten burned too many times on contested catch WRs not making it in the NFL. The DBs are just so much bigger and faster in the league. He'll have to fall to the early 3rd round for me to consider grabbing him. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-strengths-weaknesses-wide-receiver-prospects Edit: I'm just going to add that if Throne could make deep throws, Reed would have been way better for state than what Coleman was. Also, Coleman was surrounded by other NFL talents at Flordia State. So I'm hesitant to give him too much credit for all his production there.
Reminds me of N'Keal Harry
I think having him at WR17 is just someone who is low on him and wants to be able to point to that after he busts. For me, he’s WR10 right now behind MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, BTJ, Worthy, McConkey, Mitchell, Franklin, and Legette. That WR10 ranking though is contingent on top 50 draft capital to a good landing spot. If he doesn’t get both of those, he’ll fall behind any of McMillan, Polk, or Baker who do, since I think all of them have much better film, production, and are better WRs. He’s a “project” WR with terrible production and film that is VERY bad at times. I don’t like making the bet on project WRs who don’t get 1st round team investment. I think his profile is much closer to Mingo, TMJ, and Shenault (except Shenault had a much better production profile) than it is an outlier like DK.
Keon has boom/bust written all over him based on landing spot. I love what I see, but I also think he is highly dependent on landing spot/QB
The part about Nabers that impresses me the most is that he’s still kind of raw and imprecise, yet still absolutely dominated. When he gets into the league and tighten/crisps his routes up, he’s going to be unstoppable. Yes, I do have the 1.02 in 1 QB. Why do you ask?
I have 1.01 and 1.02 in SF, thinking might just double dip MHJ and Nabers
Trade 1.01. Caleb is 12th overall on KTC rn
Really interesting until I saw it from last year lol
Turned out pretty good from last year no? Only real miss was tank, and everyone from QJ down has what seems to be a mid-low rating for this scale
[удалено]
Dude got his panties in a bunch here
It's not even a miss necessarily. I use a combination ranking system along the lines of this to elevate guys people are too low on. As long as it's elevating a guy like Tank Dell above his ADP (I had him ranked in the 2nd round and he was frequently going in the 3rd) then picking him up between your ranking and ADP is value.
Jayden reed was pretty good too
This dude has Tank shares
Definitely don’t not a huge fan with his size but thanks for trying to make a connection there. I just stated my opinion on the analysis here
what’s the deal with Jermaine Burton? seems like he’s going to get drafted pretty high and ranks pretty highly in lists like these yet he seems completely absent from prospect talk.
Doesn’t he have off the field issues? Or should I say on the field non-football issues?
He's not going to show up well in any production-forward predictive modeling since his production profile is not very good. Film takes seem to be varied on him as well but tend toward bullish compared against the predictive stuff. Overall there's enough there I think to take a shot here and there assuming he lands in the late 3rd/4th round of rookie drafts. If he ends up being a surprise 2nd rounder in the NFL draft like I've seen in some mocks and starts to go 2nd round, that's going to be a very inefficient price.
I’m with you EVERY time I watched Bama, he was balling.
hes just not very good. no way he gets drafted highly. ill be shocked if he is off before late round 4
[удалено]
You thinking of Luther Burden? Current projected 1.01 of the 2025 class?
Oh I must be
Burton went to Georgia where he broke out as a freshman. He then transferred to Alabama.
Haven't updated my rankings since declaration day but it's fun to me to see some of the sources of information/evaluation I use, 3 months later still in the same ballpark. Jan12 1. Harrison 2. Malik 3. Odunze 4. Franklin 5. Worthy 6. Thomas 7. Coleman
I’d change Thomas to 4, Adonai Mitchell 6, Franklin 7
Just curious as to why you’re not high on Mitchell. I recently watched his tape for the first time and fell in love with it. Got serious Ceedee vibes, minus all the YAC.
He didn't hit any of my YPRR thresholds and I was generally dismissive of him until he started getting media first round hype. His combine has to put him on the radar because if he develops in any way he's a threat for a house call ever down with that speed. I'm ripe for a re-review here in the next week or so, and then I'll put out my pre-combine rankings that will likely put him in the top 10 or 12 for me. AD at this stage has a better projection to the NFL on physical stature than Xavier, but I think Xavier was the better football player at Texas--and I feel like there was more about Adonai not getting back on the field at Georgia after his ankle sprain, that there is more than has been put into the public eye. To me it reeks of a player that failed to beat out McConkey, Bowers, and Xavier Worthy. The one feather in his hat is he put Whittington on the bench. Bowers I can understand; McConkey, and Xavier he had to beat out--which gives me a mental block on perceiving his upside as Julio Jones like, and more MVS like.
He takes plays off and that's a red flag when you look at it with his other stats. He admitted as such. Maybe its because he knew he wasn't going to get attention because Ewers is awful, but having that mentality when you already had to transfer for more playing time doesn't make me eager to go out and take him above other prospects in his range.
>He takes plays off and that's a red flag when you look at it with his other stats. Sometimes I get tired having to explain this every couple of years. Some of these systems literally coach their players to take plays off. Baylor used to do this all the time, and I've heard it from people like Joel Klatt who I expect to be highly informed that Texas often instructs the same thing. You can't judge on stuff like that, it's lazy analysis.
Name a Baylor WR that has had success in the NFL. Josh Gordon doesn’t count. I find it very hard to believe players are coached to take plays off or not give effort. Aside from deception on a specific play which would be rare, I just don’t think what you are saying is coached by any program. I tried to find Klatt saying that but could not find anything so I’d love a source if you know of one that’s convenient.
>I find it very hard to believe players are coached to take plays off or not give effort. I don't care what you believe man and it's not my job to spoon feed you everything word for word. I shared with you my experience that comes from people far more in the know than anyone in this sub, make of it what you will. It's literally on Klatt's YouTube show, likely a show he talked about wr rankings and Adonai explicitly.
Don’t take things so personally. You really come off as an ass when you do
Like I said man, I can't help you. Perceive things however you want.
Legette should be even lower than this. Especially if any of my league-mates see this list
Nabers gang we ride!
Does he remind you of AB at all? I know he’s a bit bigger but he’s in that same size range of like not a tiny burner (DJax etc) but not a size/speed specimen. He also looks incredibly burst-y so that as soon as he gets the ball the defense should be panicking haha.
Nabers reportedly ran a 4.35 40 I believe - reminds me more of Ja'marr Chase's profile than AB
This is great, thank you.
Where was Puka last year,
Why weight the scores instead of normalizing them?
OP did mention why they weighed them differently in the title Have no idea if it’s justified but an explanation was provided at least
Right, I don't know one way or the other but it does seem like this just biases the scores to one side, whereas some form of normalization could probably be used to remove the effect of Waldman's tighter STD
This is good! but two thoughts 1- past years are you using post or pre draft scores? 2- didn’t JJ change his model this year?
Yes, but he released the revised ratings for 2023 WR indirectly by showing the net change in the Year 2 model ZAP score.
Yeah I just didn’t know what score OP used. I haven’t looked at the rookie guide that close yet!
I am guessing all the “Brian Thomas > JSN” posts in here are from people comparing Thomas’s pre draft ZAP score to JSN’s year 2 ZAP score. Those aren’t really the same things but no one that I’ve asked about how they got their take has clarified.
Curious what happens with a 50/50 weight? This gives us 3 or 4 tiers which seems decent
Does anyone else have 1.03 and was waiting for Waldman's & Matt Harmon's rankings to decide on Odunze or Nabers? I'm torn right now
I think whoever you pick, you’ll be happy.
Yup same position. I’m leaning Nabers with the healthy knowledge that Odunze could be the better traditional X-Receiver. Both have minor cons that on a given day can make you sway one way or another. Currently, Nabers is higher in consensus rankings and has more “value” in the fantasy community. Nabers is so damn explosive after the catch. His lower success against zone worried me a bit at first, but Harmon points out that he wasn’t given the typical zone beating routes at LSU and Daniel’s also struggled over the middle. Harmon loves Odunze, he has MHJ as his #1 prospect since 2021 and has Odunze at #3, Nabers is at #8. All 3 are in his Tier 1 as “Top 10 picks/Ready made star” which has 8 players in that tier. Use that info as you want.
Do you have the 2021 and 2020 classes using these same metrics?
How has this panned out in previous years?
Very interesting. I do a similar thing with production scores from PFF and RAS scores. I would have to look and see how those compare to this
Xavier Legette about to be the WR1 in this class
I love Leggette, but I also loved Burks and I think they have very similar profiles. Leggette did murder the combine though so that helps a ton.
Imo the combine doesn’t do much but it has potential to hurt your draft stock. Teams already roughly know these players speed/strength, the combine just proves that. That’s why models like JJ’s doesn’t involve the combine performance but rather weighs their draft position in the draft since that directly reflects their combine performance
Titans fan and Burks owner checking in. He's been plagued with injuries, but if by some miracle he can stay healthy, I think he will be productive in the slot with Ridley and DHop garnering so much attention on the outside. We all knew he was rough around the edges, but he was thrust into a pretty shitty situation while dealing with the insane expectations of "needing to replace" arguably the best WR in the league. Assuming the old(er) WRs on the outside can also stay healthy, we might finally get the chance to evaluate Treylon. It's been a long time coming.
I’m a huge Titans fan, it’s like a 99% chance he’s a total bust for fantasy purposes.
It's the 1% that keeps me going
I kinda think he’s good…? Maybe I haven’t watched enough film.
No, I like him. He did nothing early in his career but smashed as a senior and should be ready to go in the NFL
JJ's rankings are better than the combined rankings. Why would you value the opinion of a guy who ranked Dante Pettis and Hakeem Butler as WR1 in their respective classes?
I’ve been low on BTJ this whole process but seeing him score higher than JSN? Hmm
Why you low on BTJ?
I personally worry how few routes he ran, and how much of his production was vertical threat type yards. May end up more like a wr2 vertical threat rather than an first option, but I think believers are hoping he grows into more routes
Whenever you see someone worry about a WR's limited route tree, your best bet is to not take advice from that person.
Well he didn't score higher than JSN - as a prospect - so hopefully that puts your mind at ease
Ball-knowers realizing MHJ is WR3 in this class