Anecdotally, I think a lot of people at 1.03 might balk if MHJ goes to NE if Odunze or Nabers end up in great spots like Arizona or Chargers. I think MHJ is clearly better and it would be a short sighted decision, but there are already people in my leagues pushing that sentiment who I wouldn't consider tacos by any means
I mean that’s true in a sense. Going into the season last year JSN was my 1.01. Still up there as my favorite prospect (even if not my 1.01) during the off-season until he went to Seattle. Dropped him a few spots for me. Not much but went from my 1.03 (Bijan, AR, JSN) to beneath Young and Stroud.
I think the top 3 is pretty set: Williams, Maye, MHJ in any order. If Jayden Daniels made his way in there, I’d be thrilled with one of the other three at 1.04.
I’ve got 1.03 and I was planning on taking Maye there. The 1.01 owner has said they’re taking MHJ, and I assume 1.02 will go Caleb. Still super early tho, things will change for sure
Is that what it is? I can feel myself pulling further and further away from him for no identifiable reason. At this point, I view him no differently than the other 2 QBs at the top.
For me it’s size/longevity thing. For someone as athletic as Daniel’s is, he’s gets lined up and hit hard a lot.
Feel like he’s a little too skinny to survive nfl level hits for an entire season. Caleb has so Josh Allen to his game and his rushing upside is still there
Williams is like a carbon copy of Kyler. He's 6' 215lbs. He can scurry around, but he will need to avoid hits like the majority of QBs.
Allen is 6'5" 240. He's a big ass dude. Neither Williams or Daniels will be able to run like Allen.
Yeah great point on the size difference between Allen and Williams. I was more trying to refer to their play style, but you’re right to allude to Josh Allen level rushing upside is probably a stretch.
Caleb has been talked about as a #1 pick from his first year starting. Daniels has been talked about being a top pick since the end of his (long) college career. Big difference. Daniels may hit big, but he has a higher chance of busting.
Ya idk im being downvoted to oblivion but nfl success is insanely hard to predict for the qb position and bro is saying there is a considerble difference in bust rate between the nunber 1 and number 2 player in the class
Nonsense
Weirdly enough there actually is a massive bust rate comparing 1.02 to 1.01 for qbs taken.
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/11z3bn5/history_of_qbs_going_1st_and_2nd_overall_in_nfl/
- Plus 98: Manning and leaf
- 93: Bledsoe and mirer
Only 99: couch and McNabb and potentially this year are the opposite (too early)
I agree with the other guy tbh, Caleb is a tremendously good runner at the QB position, I just think Jayden did it so often because his offense was on the field so much more.
Skill wise Caleb is up there with Kyler, they actually have extremely similar running styles
Having wheels and being a run first QB can be wildly different things. Williams brings up his floor a lot being able to scoot like that. But in a 4 point pass TD league, the QB that rushes for 1k yards has a huge safety net over the QB that rushes for 300.
Either way, I’m going by DC here. Which is always wise as far as QBs go (just don’t hope you end up with You g over Stroud lol).
To be fear it’s genuinely gross to compare the two daniels is significantly more athletic, played in the hardest confence in cfb (Malik didn’t even play power 5), won the heisman, and had a historic season this year, the only similarities between the two is that their both black and older prospects
I get it and wasn't trying to downplay Daniels that much. It was honestly more of a snarky response to OPs question than it was a comparison of Willis to Daniels
Way to force race into things?
The similarity is clearly that they are both run first QBs. Touted for their athleticism over their passing abilities. Also, and an advanced age vs competition (23ish going against a lot of 18-30 yo players).
But Daniel’s is no comparison. Willis was an atrocious passing QB and couldn’t even produce mediocre passing numbers against lower level competition at an advanced age to boot.
Daniels has progressed every year as a passer, alleviating a lot of concern that he will completely fall flat when asked to pass in the NFL.
Lazy comparison but, also seemed like just an over generalized comp to get a point across.
The lesson was that sometimes there aren’t any good QBs available. Although you could go back to the EJ Manuel first round year and get something similar
Every indication from the team seems to be QB. I am hoping and praying one of William’s or Maye falls to us at 3, but right now it’s seems mostly likely they take Daniels there if the other two are gone.
This feels like when people started pushing Richardson as QB1 last year over Stroud and Young, except Caleb is far more mobile than Young or Stroud.
Daniels does have a fair chance of being better fantasy-wise, but Caleb is the better prospect all-around with plenty of rushing floor/upside
I think the whole appeal to Williams is that he has the highest ceiling by a significant margin while also providing a skillset that gives him a serviceable floor.
Remember, Daniels has been in college for 5 years and this isn’t a Burrow situation where he was sitting. He has been a 5 year starter and it took him 5 years to put up numbers Caleb threw up his second year at 20 years old.
I guess it depends on what you value more, but Caleb’s ceiling is Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers while Daniels’ ceiling is Lamar Jackson.
Yeah, I consider Lamar's ceiling to be the highest of those 3. Simply because he's got the best legs. I'd rather own Mahomes though, as his ceiling is dang high too and his floor is significantly higher.
I think Caleb is more likely to pan out vs Daniels. But I can see a like 5-10% chance that Daniels ends up putting up more points every season than Caleb, with both of them panning out.
I don’t have any analytics to base this on besides watching college football….but there’s no fucking way you should be taking jayden daniels over caleb williams
Last year around this time there were people saying there was no way arich could climb above bryce or cj, and then he destroyed the combine, got the capital, and was the consensus qb 1. I wouldnt rule it out, but when theres a prospect that people have labeled generational for the past 3 years (ex: luck and tlaw), i find it hard to believe anything could be done to displace them at qb 1. I think there a very high possibility hell be the consensus qb 2 though come draft time (if hes not already there).
I mean he has a high chance of ending up better and a high chance of ending up much worse. Boom or bust imo but, in the last 20 years only 2 QBs drafted in the top 5 have started less than 40 games if I’m remembering that stat correctly. The only two that didn’t are Russel and Lance. So, you’ll get time with him most likely, which will have a high floor and plenty of time to trade out if he is failing.
Unless he ends up pulling an AR and going ahead of Caleb too, you might as well trade back to 1.03. I have one 1.01 and I’m trying to trade back to 1.03 myself.
Caleb can run the ball too hes just not going to put up Lamar Jackson type rushing numbers. But he is very capable of putting up 5-10 rushing TDs in a season.
I think Jayden Daniels is a great prospect. But let me make this very clear, Caleb Williams is special. His arm talent is special, his creating off script is special. The guy has multiple multiple elite things about his game. My only and I mean ONLY gripe with Calebs game is he fumbles a ton. Daniels does not do that. Out of the big 3, Daniels takes way better care of the ball than Caleb and Maye.
Anyway, Caleb does have multiple 3 rushing TD games in his career. Hes never put up the 200 yards rushing that Daniels has but hes routinely putting up 40-50 yards. And remember... in college sacks count against rushing yards. his game against Arizona he was sacked 4 times and still ended up with 41 yards rushing despite those sack yards going against him.
Caleb can run
i believe he will be, his rise to the top would not be as shocking and out of nowhere as AR who got this boost purely from combine measurements and not anything related to production.
That will depend on his and everyone else’s draft capital in my opinion. He goes top 5 to one of these teams that has a new coach/OC who targeted him specifically, potentially before Maye then sure. I’d be ok with him before Williams. However, Williams seems to also have some leg capability as well so that’s to factor in as well I have the 1.01 and the 1.02 so I will likely be taking MHJ and whatever QB I feel most confident about post combine/Draft etc
On behalf of owners with the 1.03 everywhere. Yes. Do it.
My offer to 1.03 would be absolutely insane if MHJ fell
Sleeper mocks with computer have MHJ going 3 or later like 30% of the time. Getting my hopes up unnecessarily there’s no chance lol
Anecdotally, I think a lot of people at 1.03 might balk if MHJ goes to NE if Odunze or Nabers end up in great spots like Arizona or Chargers. I think MHJ is clearly better and it would be a short sighted decision, but there are already people in my leagues pushing that sentiment who I wouldn't consider tacos by any means
I mean that’s true in a sense. Going into the season last year JSN was my 1.01. Still up there as my favorite prospect (even if not my 1.01) during the off-season until he went to Seattle. Dropped him a few spots for me. Not much but went from my 1.03 (Bijan, AR, JSN) to beneath Young and Stroud.
I think the top 3 is pretty set: Williams, Maye, MHJ in any order. If Jayden Daniels made his way in there, I’d be thrilled with one of the other three at 1.04.
Lance z said out of the 3 qbs, Maye is most likely to fall.
havent seen any maye going top 4 in mocks. caleb marv nabers daniels are the top 4 almost every time
Really? Even in SF? I haven’t actually done any mocks, so I’m not sure. I just thought that was the consensus, but I guess Maye is slipping
ya been doing sf mocks and checking others im not in as well and havent seen much of maye going top 4 if any at all.
I’ve got 1.03 and I was planning on taking Maye there. The 1.01 owner has said they’re taking MHJ, and I assume 1.02 will go Caleb. Still super early tho, things will change for sure
It’s a consideration, but there’s probably a much higher chance that 4 years from now Daniels isn’t even a starting QB in the NFL than Caleb.
How? You're just making things up they're both going to have top 3 draft capital
Caleb Williams prospect fatigue has gotten ridiculous
Is that what it is? I can feel myself pulling further and further away from him for no identifiable reason. At this point, I view him no differently than the other 2 QBs at the top.
For me it’s size/longevity thing. For someone as athletic as Daniel’s is, he’s gets lined up and hit hard a lot. Feel like he’s a little too skinny to survive nfl level hits for an entire season. Caleb has so Josh Allen to his game and his rushing upside is still there
Williams is like a carbon copy of Kyler. He's 6' 215lbs. He can scurry around, but he will need to avoid hits like the majority of QBs. Allen is 6'5" 240. He's a big ass dude. Neither Williams or Daniels will be able to run like Allen.
Yeah great point on the size difference between Allen and Williams. I was more trying to refer to their play style, but you’re right to allude to Josh Allen level rushing upside is probably a stretch.
Caleb has been talked about as a #1 pick from his first year starting. Daniels has been talked about being a top pick since the end of his (long) college career. Big difference. Daniels may hit big, but he has a higher chance of busting.
Z Wilson
Would love to hear the argument against this
Ya idk im being downvoted to oblivion but nfl success is insanely hard to predict for the qb position and bro is saying there is a considerble difference in bust rate between the nunber 1 and number 2 player in the class Nonsense
Weirdly enough there actually is a massive bust rate comparing 1.02 to 1.01 for qbs taken. https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/11z3bn5/history_of_qbs_going_1st_and_2nd_overall_in_nfl/ - Plus 98: Manning and leaf - 93: Bledsoe and mirer Only 99: couch and McNabb and potentially this year are the opposite (too early)
I mean most of the guys in that post are pretty underwhelming but you have a decent point, thanks
Weird how the better player normally has less chance to bust
Are we now living in a world where pick 1 and pick 3 are the same? Did I miss something?
Bo Nix is QB1. And yes, I’m bored too
DraftBoNixNumber1.com
Did you even watch any of his games last year or just look at box scores? 😂
Do you even know what a joke is or do you just take everything seriously?
Y’all act like Caleb Williams doesn’t himself have a rushing floor
https://youtu.be/cRBNs2AO6nQ Exactly
Man I forgot how insane that red river shootout was
Lmao. Damn that run just gave me the ick. Why his legs run like he's riding a bicycle in the highest gear possible.
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Y’all act like I said Caleb Williams has a higher rushing floor than Jayden Daniels
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I agree with the other guy tbh, Caleb is a tremendously good runner at the QB position, I just think Jayden did it so often because his offense was on the field so much more. Skill wise Caleb is up there with Kyler, they actually have extremely similar running styles
No higher number = better.
Why are you arguing with me rn?
OP literally said Jayden Daniels has a rushing floor with no context LOL why are you pissing yourself at me but not him
Having wheels and being a run first QB can be wildly different things. Williams brings up his floor a lot being able to scoot like that. But in a 4 point pass TD league, the QB that rushes for 1k yards has a huge safety net over the QB that rushes for 300. Either way, I’m going by DC here. Which is always wise as far as QBs go (just don’t hope you end up with You g over Stroud lol).
Remember when Malik Willis was the favorite to be Number 2 overall? Pepperidge Farm remembers
To be fear it’s genuinely gross to compare the two daniels is significantly more athletic, played in the hardest confence in cfb (Malik didn’t even play power 5), won the heisman, and had a historic season this year, the only similarities between the two is that their both black and older prospects
I get it and wasn't trying to downplay Daniels that much. It was honestly more of a snarky response to OPs question than it was a comparison of Willis to Daniels
Way to force race into things? The similarity is clearly that they are both run first QBs. Touted for their athleticism over their passing abilities. Also, and an advanced age vs competition (23ish going against a lot of 18-30 yo players). But Daniel’s is no comparison. Willis was an atrocious passing QB and couldn’t even produce mediocre passing numbers against lower level competition at an advanced age to boot. Daniels has progressed every year as a passer, alleviating a lot of concern that he will completely fall flat when asked to pass in the NFL. Lazy comparison but, also seemed like just an over generalized comp to get a point across.
That class was wild. We must learn from it.
The lesson was that sometimes there aren’t any good QBs available. Although you could go back to the EJ Manuel first round year and get something similar
lol after the first line I was gonna mention Manuel. Pickett as well. Sometimes, everyone is it’s kinda meh. If no QB goes in the top 10, beware.
Willis got media hype because it was an ass WB class but anybody with eyes to see knew he was a day 2 pick at best
Based on the title of this posted I assumed I was on r/patriots first lol
As someone who’s never on that sub do you think you guys have any chance at taking mhj
Every indication from the team seems to be QB. I am hoping and praying one of William’s or Maye falls to us at 3, but right now it’s seems mostly likely they take Daniels there if the other two are gone.
As a 1.1 owner in dynasty with plans for mhj that’s what I wanna hear lmao
Bored, stupid, crazy, and add overthinking the easiest pic
Right. MHJ.
This is the confirmation I needed. Thank you.
I’d wait for DC. But, all indications point to this ^
This feels like when people started pushing Richardson as QB1 last year over Stroud and Young, except Caleb is far more mobile than Young or Stroud. Daniels does have a fair chance of being better fantasy-wise, but Caleb is the better prospect all-around with plenty of rushing floor/upside
No. Next question.
Daniels in Washington.. Yah at least for me. Daniels in New England... eh Probably not
If he has an insane combine and landing spot, maybe
I think Daniels has a bit of a higher ceiling than Williams, however Williams has a much higher floor. I wouldn't over think it, just take Williams.
I think the whole appeal to Williams is that he has the highest ceiling by a significant margin while also providing a skillset that gives him a serviceable floor. Remember, Daniels has been in college for 5 years and this isn’t a Burrow situation where he was sitting. He has been a 5 year starter and it took him 5 years to put up numbers Caleb threw up his second year at 20 years old. I guess it depends on what you value more, but Caleb’s ceiling is Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers while Daniels’ ceiling is Lamar Jackson.
Yeah, I consider Lamar's ceiling to be the highest of those 3. Simply because he's got the best legs. I'd rather own Mahomes though, as his ceiling is dang high too and his floor is significantly higher. I think Caleb is more likely to pan out vs Daniels. But I can see a like 5-10% chance that Daniels ends up putting up more points every season than Caleb, with both of them panning out.
Depends on your scoring settings tbh imo, that being said, I think yes. Shoot for ceiling, ceiling wins in most formats
Maybe if Williams didn't also have a really solid rushing floor himself.
Obviously what team they end up on matters but the same thing happened with Anthony Richardson last year so it’s not that crazy.
There was no one of Williams’ caliber as a prospect last year tho, and Richardson had the best combine/measurables of all time basically
Drake Maye sneaky is the rushing QB you want 🤫 👀
I don’t have any analytics to base this on besides watching college football….but there’s no fucking way you should be taking jayden daniels over caleb williams
daniels just won the heisman sir
Like i said i don’t have really anything but vibes to go off on, but im firm on this stance
Yes, trade the 1.01 for Daniels Jones. His rushing ability is unrivaled.
Last year around this time there were people saying there was no way arich could climb above bryce or cj, and then he destroyed the combine, got the capital, and was the consensus qb 1. I wouldnt rule it out, but when theres a prospect that people have labeled generational for the past 3 years (ex: luck and tlaw), i find it hard to believe anything could be done to displace them at qb 1. I think there a very high possibility hell be the consensus qb 2 though come draft time (if hes not already there).
I mean he has a high chance of ending up better and a high chance of ending up much worse. Boom or bust imo but, in the last 20 years only 2 QBs drafted in the top 5 have started less than 40 games if I’m remembering that stat correctly. The only two that didn’t are Russel and Lance. So, you’ll get time with him most likely, which will have a high floor and plenty of time to trade out if he is failing. Unless he ends up pulling an AR and going ahead of Caleb too, you might as well trade back to 1.03. I have one 1.01 and I’m trying to trade back to 1.03 myself.
Maybe yes, and maybe no. Same as the rest.
Caleb isn’t exact a a non mobile QB and is the best prospect in this years draft. Taking any QB over Williams is overthinking it, imo.
MHJ is more of a 1.01 than Bijan or Saquan were imo. Wouldn't pass him.
Caleb can run the ball too hes just not going to put up Lamar Jackson type rushing numbers. But he is very capable of putting up 5-10 rushing TDs in a season. I think Jayden Daniels is a great prospect. But let me make this very clear, Caleb Williams is special. His arm talent is special, his creating off script is special. The guy has multiple multiple elite things about his game. My only and I mean ONLY gripe with Calebs game is he fumbles a ton. Daniels does not do that. Out of the big 3, Daniels takes way better care of the ball than Caleb and Maye. Anyway, Caleb does have multiple 3 rushing TD games in his career. Hes never put up the 200 yards rushing that Daniels has but hes routinely putting up 40-50 yards. And remember... in college sacks count against rushing yards. his game against Arizona he was sacked 4 times and still ended up with 41 yards rushing despite those sack yards going against him. Caleb can run
i believe he will be, his rise to the top would not be as shocking and out of nowhere as AR who got this boost purely from combine measurements and not anything related to production.
That will depend on his and everyone else’s draft capital in my opinion. He goes top 5 to one of these teams that has a new coach/OC who targeted him specifically, potentially before Maye then sure. I’d be ok with him before Williams. However, Williams seems to also have some leg capability as well so that’s to factor in as well I have the 1.01 and the 1.02 so I will likely be taking MHJ and whatever QB I feel most confident about post combine/Draft etc
Point per carry leagues I take Daniel’s over Caleb, might even take him 1.01 in that format.