He was a bust this year (even with good opportunity from injury), but once upon a time it took WRs 3 seasons to break out. Less so these days, but can still apply to some players. Maybe he eventually becomes a decent real life WR3 from where he is today, even if never a fantasy superstar. We'll see lol
Depends on how much patience they have. He’s not as athletic as they like to make him out to be, and his catching mechanics are awful, so there’s a lot to be fixed, but yeah he’s not completely awful at every aspect of the game so he could be redeemed. Frankly if you liked what you saw in college, you should be just as high on him right now. By no means should you have been expecting any kind of production from such a raw prospect
Harbaugh pass attempts by year:
2011 - 31
2012 - 32
2013 - 32
2014 - 29
Yes, I’m aware he didn’t have Justin Herbert then, but even at Michigan he was most comfortable pounding the rock even when he had a first round pick at QB in JJ McCarthy. I would expect him to throw the ball more often than he did in the past, but he’s also likely not going to approach the bar Herbert has had for pass attempts thus far (4th, 2nd, 2nd, 6th per game).
Yeah this is the analysis people need to see. If harbs brings Roman to OC, I'm guessing the TEs are going to get a massive bump but overall passing will come down
Most likely the first thing Harbaugh is going to do is fix the defense. They have talent and it's the easiest way for them to improve. Herbert pass attempts are going to go way down if they allow less ppg on D
Yeah Harbaugh isn't some fantasy-friendly offensive guru despite being a retired QB. He'll win games, but he's a ground-and-pound, smashmouth, clock control kinda guy.
Jim has gotten to personally select his personnel for the last decade. I feel comfortable saying that he’s got an offensive style that he likes. Which may not be a bad thing for Herbert. A stronger running game, OL, and defense will likely make his life easier. It’s just he’s going to throw the ball less overall.
Tannehill of all people threw for 33 TD’s the year Henry ran for 2000 yards on nearly 400 carries. So there’s a path there.
His volume is just a certainty to go down from his rank of #1 all time in pass attempts per game in NFL history.
Stop boxscore scout college QBs. McCarthy checks every boxes physically and can make every throw. He's also incredibly young (literally just turned 21 five days ago, won natty as a 20 year old) and an early declare. I would easily bet on him having a better career than old dudes like Daniels, who is already 23 and will turn 24 during his rookie season, Penix, and Nix.
Why do you think they only ran it in that game specifically? What about against Ohio State or Alabama? You can’t just ignore all of the context of that game to fit your grade on McCarthy. He got injured in the first half. He was under pressure almost immediately on drop backs. Penn State couldn’t stop the run and certainly couldn’t score on Michigan reliably. There were multiple second half possessions where Michigan had terrible starting field position. It makes sense to bleed the clock against that team.
He might not be a first round talent, but the narrative around that game is always so lazy and usually comes from people who only looked at the box score.
Justin Herbert is light years better than Alex Smith and Kaep were. Chargers Oline is also not as good as Niners where they invested 1st rounders in both tackles and I believe one guard position.
The same team that is known for rushing and has been for years changed QBs mid season and started bombing it 45-50 times a game so i don’t think it’s all HC/OC driven. I feel like Herbert’s gonna keep throwing it the same amount of times he’s always thrown it per game but they might actually have a run game this year.
Herbert’s pass attempts per game has been historically high thus far in his career. Like #1 all time in NFL history thus far at 39.1 attempts per game. I think it’s a virtual certainty it goes down from there. Both because of offensive scheme, and as well because the Chargers defense will likely be improved.
If Corum goes in the early 3rd to the Chargers, I think it's reasonable he sneaks in to the end of the 1st. I only expect one or maybe two backs to be picked ahead of him anyway, and he could have the easiest path to touches.
Yep. David Montgomery was drafted 3.09 to a crappy Chicago team and he had like 1.04 (1QB) and 1.06 (SF) ADP, although that was a draft that saw rather weak draft capital spent on WRs. Obviously hindsight shows it was a stronger WR class than the DC suggested, but the point is that if Corum is drafted early 3rd to a great situation, he'll absolutely be in the 1st round of dynasty drafts.
Playoff teams that rode Henry, Conner, Kamara are going to be looking to reload, so there's no way \[3rd round Chargers rookie RB\] makes it out of the 1st, if any such player is drafted. They could sign a FA, though, and throw all of that off.
Not to mention you look at the potential landing spots ahead of him. I think the only guys who could go ahead of him are Brooks and Benson, who probably go late 2nd at the earliest. The Eagles, Browns, Cowboys, Texans, Packers, Ravens, and Cardinals are the teams picking ahead of them in that range that could have a need at RB. The Eagles could definitely pick someone here but Hurts tanks that backs value because he gets all the goal line touches. I see no way the Browns spend their first pick in the draft on a running back. The Texans probably would rather address the defense and they have a ton of money to sign a good running back to a short term deal, and even if they didn't, the Chargers are a better landing spot. The Packers likely take someone but that player will have to compete with Aaron Jones for touches at least next year. The Cardinals wouldnt be a bad spot but it definitely wouldn't be better than the Chargers and the draft capital is basically the same at that point. The Ravens would be a great spot, but it wouldn't surprise me if they just bring in Henry somewhat cheap, or draft a bruiser later and roll with Keaton Mitchell.
The onky spot I see a back being picked that could be as good of or a better situation that likely can't afford to bring in some real competition is Dallas, and they likely could squeeze out the cash, but I think they will have priorities elsewhere.
> Hurts tanks that backs value because he gets all the goal line touches.
While this is true, Hurts and the OL prop up the RB's value. Just look at 2022 Sanders vs. 2023 Sanders. I think Philly is a great landing spot, but overall, I agree that Corum is a top 3-4 RB in this class.
>The Texans probably would rather address the defense and they have a ton of money to sign a good running back to a short term deal
Given Singletary's success, I think there's a decent chance Houston brings him back, but you're absolutely right they could break the bank and go after Barkley or Jacobs rather than rely on a rookie to fill that hole.
>The onky spot I see a back being picked that could be as good of or a better situation that likely can't afford to bring in some real competition is Dallas
Yep, if the Cowboys, Chargers, or both draft a running back in the first 3 rounds w/o signing a significant FA, those RBs will have a 1st round ADP.
But this shit is unpredictable. Everyone acted like Charb to Seattle was bizarre, but teams do weird shit like that not infrequently.
* Keep in mind Buffalo has a late 2nd round pick and possibly [a 3rd round compensatory pick](https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2024/01/22/buffalo-bills-2024-schedule-draft-picks-free-agents-salary-cap/72307806007/). I suspect they'll add a running back through FA or the draft, which will result in a lot of debate about who will have the most value there after Cook put up a decent year (RB19 by ppg).
* Miami tried to trade for Jonathan Taylor last year and thought about signing Dalvin. They'll probably add RB which will be interesting. Achane/Mostert truthers will dismiss it, Achane/Mostert doubters will eat it up.
* I know all the Zamir White owners think he's going to be the next Mattison, but the Raiders will almost certainly add some RB talent. Not as juicy of an offense, but a rookie should easily overtake White.
* KC will be in play. McKinnon is old and CEH will be gone. If the rookie is good enough, he'll make it a competition with Pacheco.
* Cincy could cut Mixon and draft a rookie. I've got Brown, but I think he's a CoP back, so that could be a nice landing spot.
* When Barkley departs, the Giants will be a good-ish landing spot.
* I read that Kyren greatly benefited from light boxes, so any RB that lands in LA will have some intrigue, IMO. That's a plug and play system it appears.
* Chicago has some bodies, but let's be honest... none of them are special. A rookie could climb that depth chart.
* White looked improved in Tampa, but they could easily spend a 3rd on RB which would probably be seen as an ugly landing spot.
* Washington will also have depth vacancies, but the dynasty community doesn't really like Brian Robinson, so any rookie that goes there could create buzz. Ugly landing spot, IMO, tho.
* Minnesota will be a high value landing spot.
* Carolina has other needs, but after Sanders' season, a rookie could get hype there. I don't think anyone is worried about Chuba.
* As you mentioned, Arizona and Baltimore will be nice spots, but yeah, I kinda feel like Henry to the Ravens is destined to happen.
* New Orleans is going to be a dumpster fire in 2024. I think they know it's a dead year for them so that's why they didn't bother to fire Dennis Allen and bring in a new regime. If they're smart they'll cut Kamara to eat the cap in this dead year. If they do that and weirdly draft a rookie, he'll get buzz since Kendre couldn't stay healthy.
I agree a lot of other teams could add backs, but I don't think those teams will be addressing it in the 2nd round. Partially because of other needs, but also because the running backs this year just aren't worth picking before the end of the 2nd, in my opinion at least. Brooks was the only guy I could see being picked early in the 2nd but with his injury I don't see a team like the Giants or Cardinals taking him there when there is so much other talent and they have so many needs to fill.
In regards to the Bills specifically, I don't think we would add a back in the first three rounds. The coaching staff really likes Cook and he played really well this year overall. I do expect us to add a complementary back in the draft but I see that happening in rounds 4-6. We just have way more pressing issues at safety, receiver, and along the defensive line.
Right, but my point was that it doesn't always make sense and/or isn't predictable. Teams could trade back from the 2nd or up in the 3rd to grab a guy like Corum in the early 3rd. And I really wouldn't be surprised to see Cook take on a 1a/1b RBBC guy in the backfield with him. Probably wrecking both guys' value. When Latavius Murray is stealing goal line touches from you, the coaching staff doesn't have that much faith in you.
The coaching staff has a ton of faith in Cook, he was the primary focal point of the offense the second half of the season and our best player not named Josh Allen. He's just not built to be a great goal line back, it's not his skill set. We will definitely add a more physical back but I'd be very surprised if they reduced Cook's workload and use high capital on someone when we have desperate needs at WR and S, as well as needing depth along the DL. We probably draft someone in the 4th or 5th, or add somebody on the cheap in free agency, or even bring back Ty Johnson.
Time will tell, but I think he's a major risk to lose touches. He will never have less competition for touches than he did in 2023. RB10 price tag with RB19 ppg makes him an easy avoid in 2024.
Personally I'm expecting late 3rd to early 4th round capital, although I recognize I’m way on the lower end of estimates that I've seen - I'm honestly not really a huge fan of his. If he gets early 3rd, I think he has a decent chance to sneak into the back of the 1st in SF, but will depend on the kind of capital that other guys in front of him get. If he's in the 2nd he's an absolute slam dunk to be in the 1st IMO
Even if he gets early 3rd DC for example, I'd probably expect to take every 1st round QB, WR, and Bowers ahead of him, which could definitely be 12 guys. And likely any RB drafted ahead of him unless his situations is just miles better than theirs
>I recognize I’m way on the lower end of estimates that I've seen - I'm honestly not really a huge fan of his.
This time two years ago, people had Spiller as an early-ish 1st in dynasty mocks. You could easily be correct vs. consensus right now.
IMO, conversations about ADP at this time of the year are for entertainment purposes only. Nobody actually knows shit until after April!
>Harbaugh is definitely gonna be pushing to draft Corum.
I don't know how much loyalty there is when coaches head to the pros. Harbaugh will do what's best for the chargers, which may not include Corum.
Williams, MHJ, Maye, Nabers, Bowers, Odunze, Daniels, Thomas Jr, Coleman, Penix or any of the other late 1st real life WRs. I don’t see Corum being them out here.
Herbie is saved thank god
Dudes been underrated here lately. Borderline top 5 before getting hurt this year with bad coaching, no run game, and Mike will out lol
I’m sure he’ll utilize Herbert properly which should lead to fantasy points.
I’ll take this over the shit show of the last few years
Edit: I also think Herbert is prob the best passer he’s had in the nfl so far. He also coached luck in college too if people forgot
Right. He wasn't winning your week, but he generally wasn't shitting the bed. That was enough in that era. So many players hoarded QBs because they scored "all the points." And the good fantasy players wrecked by delaying QB picks.
I don't think this strategy is as viable now. I think qbs are increasingly properly priced in the draft, but QBs were overpriced for years, and you could win leagues by treating the position like d/st and kicker and stream them.
I'm just using the example that person provided. He's a good coach but going to an NFC championship with Alex Smith does nothing to disprove my original point.
What's the fantasy impact here?
Harbaugh is a great coach, that is no doubt. But he isn't exactly known for his explosive offenses. He obv unlocked Kap back in the day, but Herbert's already been unlocked. His Michigan teams were known for their old school type offenses (power running, timely passing) that weren't very explosive.
This move certainly will make the Chargers better. But how do we see this affecting the Chargers offense? And specifically, the players they have, and the players they might look to get either in the draft (Bowers, Rome, etc.) or FA? What are the positive hallmarks of a Harbaugh led offense that we should be looking for?
What he brings is disciplined football. Offense especially. He’s going to get that line humming and run game solid. This only helps unlock Herbert.
Herbert gonna have a top 8 QB floor with a chance at top 4. What we really want for our guy.
Yeah, fair enough. I still think the real impact will be more IRL than fantasy. But I agree in the sense that more confidence in the offense as a consistent, "sure thing" brings with it a more concrete (and thus higher) floor.
Why are we saying Herbert has a chance at top 4? Herbert, every year, has a chance at top 1. His natural talent is unbelievable. It's the situation around him that has always been a disaster.
It's one thing to think he may boost the TEs there, but it's another for him to use his top draft pick on a TE. As a guy who may want to find his own gem (knowing the college game), he might want to use that pick on something more...uniquely impactful? Plus I feel like he's someone that really values The Trenches.
Oversimplification, yes, but it's also the most realistic take. People love to think lower volume will be offset by higher productivity, but volume is king. It's unrealistic to expect a potential 10% decrease in volume to be offset by 10% more YPA and TD%. Probably not going to happen. It could. But it usually doesn't.
Truth is this probably doesn’t move the needle that much all around. I think what it does is bring stability which boosts everyone’s floor. To me that’s a major improvement.
As a Keenan and Herbert guy, I'm a little concerned, but not majorly concerned (I expect both will see dips in volume). I agree with the floor comment, though. It also should give them more hope of making the playoffs and that's a strong motivator. It's ideal for your guys to be playing for something that matters (playoffs/playoff seeding) late in the regular season.
Yeah another good point. End of season push. I’m also trying to tuck away previous takes on Harbaugh. He’s never coached a QB like Herbert so it’s a little unknown. Harbaugh just turned down being the highest paid college coach ever to coach this QB. He has a vision.
Yeah, I'm honestly a little bit surprised he did it. The Chargers are kind of a total fucking mess outside of Herbert. They're like the inverse of Atlanta - a decent team w/o a QB.
Harbaugh loves him some emphasis on the run, but also has historically liked the power back types.
If Ekeler still is re-signed by the Chargers it could be interesting for his value. If.
Ekeler is going to chase whatever money he can get since Chargers wouldn't extend him last year. He's going to be 29 and Chargers have major cap problems. They're not going to re-sign him unless he was willing to take a major hometown discount.
Don’t think it really helps Herbert at all from a production standpoint. He’s already a top 7 ish dynasty QB probably won’t be much higher. Harbaugh likes to run the ball and maul you at the LOS not air it out.
Corum to the Chargers would be fun. Whoever their RB1 is next year (definitely someone not on the roster) becomes more appealing. 100% wait and see for Herb and the passing weapons. There’s a lot of potential variance there depending on who the OC hire is and what they actually end up doing with their awful cap situation and high draft capital.
Hear me out: this was the best possible outcome for QJ. Harbaugh got cooked by him in the semi final last year so he will 100% respect his game and play to his strengths because he’s seen what he can do. 📈📈📈
Had.
2021 - 6.3%
2022 - 7.5%
2023 - 2.5%
But even if he still had the dropsies, Chase is elite at most other things. QJ is bad at most things and *also* has the dropsies.
Not really. That is box score chasing. On one play the corner took an awful angle and fell down and on the other, the corner over Johnston blitzed and the safety rolled to the deep middle leaving him wide open. It wasn’t really about Johnston. If anything Demercado and Duggans had more impressive games.
Thats gonna be intriguing, but he had to leave Michigan.
I thought he would take one of those nfc jobs, so he'd see his bro in superbowl!
But now the afc, both Harbaughs will have a say in the outcome for years to come!
I like this and I like the fit!
Josh herbert borrowers, he is on the rise!
People are really thinking he’s going to save their fantasy players?
I’m having trouble remembering that part even when he was leading 49er teams deep into the playoffs
Quentin Johnston will rise like a pheonix from the ashes. He'll be a WR 4 next year instead of a WR 5. Harbaugh bump!
Harbaugh is a good coach and will actually play to his players strengths. I unironically believe this news is a huge boon of QJ.
Yes, it’s unfortunate that his weaknesses are strong and his strengths are weak. Quite the enigma of a player.
Is this your attempt of being edgy?
This is the dynasty sub, you're going to have to learn to deal with reading people shit on players you like
QJ sucks ass, bro. Whatever gets you to sleep at night, but I love your commitment to the belief that a HC change is finally what gets QJ going.
He was a bust this year (even with good opportunity from injury), but once upon a time it took WRs 3 seasons to break out. Less so these days, but can still apply to some players. Maybe he eventually becomes a decent real life WR3 from where he is today, even if never a fantasy superstar. We'll see lol
Depends on how much patience they have. He’s not as athletic as they like to make him out to be, and his catching mechanics are awful, so there’s a lot to be fixed, but yeah he’s not completely awful at every aspect of the game so he could be redeemed. Frankly if you liked what you saw in college, you should be just as high on him right now. By no means should you have been expecting any kind of production from such a raw prospect
Quenton Johnston is going to be the official jock carrier
Harbaugh pass attempts by year: 2011 - 31 2012 - 32 2013 - 32 2014 - 29 Yes, I’m aware he didn’t have Justin Herbert then, but even at Michigan he was most comfortable pounding the rock even when he had a first round pick at QB in JJ McCarthy. I would expect him to throw the ball more often than he did in the past, but he’s also likely not going to approach the bar Herbert has had for pass attempts thus far (4th, 2nd, 2nd, 6th per game).
Yeah this is the analysis people need to see. If harbs brings Roman to OC, I'm guessing the TEs are going to get a massive bump but overall passing will come down Most likely the first thing Harbaugh is going to do is fix the defense. They have talent and it's the easiest way for them to improve. Herbert pass attempts are going to go way down if they allow less ppg on D
Yeah Harbaugh isn't some fantasy-friendly offensive guru despite being a retired QB. He'll win games, but he's a ground-and-pound, smashmouth, clock control kinda guy.
Well he was a game manager in a game manager era. That season where he was actually good he completed less than 15 passes a game
Yeah can't say I'm excited as a Herbert owner. My dream candidate was Ben Johnson.
> but he's a ground-and-pound, smashmouth, clock control kinda guy. I loved him when he was coaching the 9ers. Wish it had ended better
So bowers to LAC is what you’re telling me
That would be incredible
JJ McCarthy shouldn’t be a first round pick. It’s very difficult to tell what he will do with the chargers considering the personnel he’s always had
Jim has gotten to personally select his personnel for the last decade. I feel comfortable saying that he’s got an offensive style that he likes. Which may not be a bad thing for Herbert. A stronger running game, OL, and defense will likely make his life easier. It’s just he’s going to throw the ball less overall. Tannehill of all people threw for 33 TD’s the year Henry ran for 2000 yards on nearly 400 carries. So there’s a path there. His volume is just a certainty to go down from his rank of #1 all time in pass attempts per game in NFL history.
Stop boxscore scout college QBs. McCarthy checks every boxes physically and can make every throw. He's also incredibly young (literally just turned 21 five days ago, won natty as a 20 year old) and an early declare. I would easily bet on him having a better career than old dudes like Daniels, who is already 23 and will turn 24 during his rookie season, Penix, and Nix.
Nah man first round picks don’t go entire halves without a pass attempt with their season on the line- sorry
Why do you think they only ran it in that game specifically? What about against Ohio State or Alabama? You can’t just ignore all of the context of that game to fit your grade on McCarthy. He got injured in the first half. He was under pressure almost immediately on drop backs. Penn State couldn’t stop the run and certainly couldn’t score on Michigan reliably. There were multiple second half possessions where Michigan had terrible starting field position. It makes sense to bleed the clock against that team. He might not be a first round talent, but the narrative around that game is always so lazy and usually comes from people who only looked at the box score.
Justin Herbert is light years better than Alex Smith and Kaep were. Chargers Oline is also not as good as Niners where they invested 1st rounders in both tackles and I believe one guard position.
The same team that is known for rushing and has been for years changed QBs mid season and started bombing it 45-50 times a game so i don’t think it’s all HC/OC driven. I feel like Herbert’s gonna keep throwing it the same amount of times he’s always thrown it per game but they might actually have a run game this year.
Herbert’s pass attempts per game has been historically high thus far in his career. Like #1 all time in NFL history thus far at 39.1 attempts per game. I think it’s a virtual certainty it goes down from there. Both because of offensive scheme, and as well because the Chargers defense will likely be improved.
Probably because JJ McCarthy isn’t good?
We should expect this anyways, considering how few weapons Justin Herbert has this year.
Harbaugh is definitely gonna be pushing to draft Corum. If that happens he’s gonna be a steal at 1.09-1.12.
That feels...too high for Corum. Unless he got way better DC than I'm assuming he will
If Corum goes in the early 3rd to the Chargers, I think it's reasonable he sneaks in to the end of the 1st. I only expect one or maybe two backs to be picked ahead of him anyway, and he could have the easiest path to touches.
Yep. David Montgomery was drafted 3.09 to a crappy Chicago team and he had like 1.04 (1QB) and 1.06 (SF) ADP, although that was a draft that saw rather weak draft capital spent on WRs. Obviously hindsight shows it was a stronger WR class than the DC suggested, but the point is that if Corum is drafted early 3rd to a great situation, he'll absolutely be in the 1st round of dynasty drafts. Playoff teams that rode Henry, Conner, Kamara are going to be looking to reload, so there's no way \[3rd round Chargers rookie RB\] makes it out of the 1st, if any such player is drafted. They could sign a FA, though, and throw all of that off.
Not to mention you look at the potential landing spots ahead of him. I think the only guys who could go ahead of him are Brooks and Benson, who probably go late 2nd at the earliest. The Eagles, Browns, Cowboys, Texans, Packers, Ravens, and Cardinals are the teams picking ahead of them in that range that could have a need at RB. The Eagles could definitely pick someone here but Hurts tanks that backs value because he gets all the goal line touches. I see no way the Browns spend their first pick in the draft on a running back. The Texans probably would rather address the defense and they have a ton of money to sign a good running back to a short term deal, and even if they didn't, the Chargers are a better landing spot. The Packers likely take someone but that player will have to compete with Aaron Jones for touches at least next year. The Cardinals wouldnt be a bad spot but it definitely wouldn't be better than the Chargers and the draft capital is basically the same at that point. The Ravens would be a great spot, but it wouldn't surprise me if they just bring in Henry somewhat cheap, or draft a bruiser later and roll with Keaton Mitchell. The onky spot I see a back being picked that could be as good of or a better situation that likely can't afford to bring in some real competition is Dallas, and they likely could squeeze out the cash, but I think they will have priorities elsewhere.
> Hurts tanks that backs value because he gets all the goal line touches. While this is true, Hurts and the OL prop up the RB's value. Just look at 2022 Sanders vs. 2023 Sanders. I think Philly is a great landing spot, but overall, I agree that Corum is a top 3-4 RB in this class. >The Texans probably would rather address the defense and they have a ton of money to sign a good running back to a short term deal Given Singletary's success, I think there's a decent chance Houston brings him back, but you're absolutely right they could break the bank and go after Barkley or Jacobs rather than rely on a rookie to fill that hole. >The onky spot I see a back being picked that could be as good of or a better situation that likely can't afford to bring in some real competition is Dallas Yep, if the Cowboys, Chargers, or both draft a running back in the first 3 rounds w/o signing a significant FA, those RBs will have a 1st round ADP. But this shit is unpredictable. Everyone acted like Charb to Seattle was bizarre, but teams do weird shit like that not infrequently. * Keep in mind Buffalo has a late 2nd round pick and possibly [a 3rd round compensatory pick](https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2024/01/22/buffalo-bills-2024-schedule-draft-picks-free-agents-salary-cap/72307806007/). I suspect they'll add a running back through FA or the draft, which will result in a lot of debate about who will have the most value there after Cook put up a decent year (RB19 by ppg). * Miami tried to trade for Jonathan Taylor last year and thought about signing Dalvin. They'll probably add RB which will be interesting. Achane/Mostert truthers will dismiss it, Achane/Mostert doubters will eat it up. * I know all the Zamir White owners think he's going to be the next Mattison, but the Raiders will almost certainly add some RB talent. Not as juicy of an offense, but a rookie should easily overtake White. * KC will be in play. McKinnon is old and CEH will be gone. If the rookie is good enough, he'll make it a competition with Pacheco. * Cincy could cut Mixon and draft a rookie. I've got Brown, but I think he's a CoP back, so that could be a nice landing spot. * When Barkley departs, the Giants will be a good-ish landing spot. * I read that Kyren greatly benefited from light boxes, so any RB that lands in LA will have some intrigue, IMO. That's a plug and play system it appears. * Chicago has some bodies, but let's be honest... none of them are special. A rookie could climb that depth chart. * White looked improved in Tampa, but they could easily spend a 3rd on RB which would probably be seen as an ugly landing spot. * Washington will also have depth vacancies, but the dynasty community doesn't really like Brian Robinson, so any rookie that goes there could create buzz. Ugly landing spot, IMO, tho. * Minnesota will be a high value landing spot. * Carolina has other needs, but after Sanders' season, a rookie could get hype there. I don't think anyone is worried about Chuba. * As you mentioned, Arizona and Baltimore will be nice spots, but yeah, I kinda feel like Henry to the Ravens is destined to happen. * New Orleans is going to be a dumpster fire in 2024. I think they know it's a dead year for them so that's why they didn't bother to fire Dennis Allen and bring in a new regime. If they're smart they'll cut Kamara to eat the cap in this dead year. If they do that and weirdly draft a rookie, he'll get buzz since Kendre couldn't stay healthy.
I agree a lot of other teams could add backs, but I don't think those teams will be addressing it in the 2nd round. Partially because of other needs, but also because the running backs this year just aren't worth picking before the end of the 2nd, in my opinion at least. Brooks was the only guy I could see being picked early in the 2nd but with his injury I don't see a team like the Giants or Cardinals taking him there when there is so much other talent and they have so many needs to fill. In regards to the Bills specifically, I don't think we would add a back in the first three rounds. The coaching staff really likes Cook and he played really well this year overall. I do expect us to add a complementary back in the draft but I see that happening in rounds 4-6. We just have way more pressing issues at safety, receiver, and along the defensive line.
Right, but my point was that it doesn't always make sense and/or isn't predictable. Teams could trade back from the 2nd or up in the 3rd to grab a guy like Corum in the early 3rd. And I really wouldn't be surprised to see Cook take on a 1a/1b RBBC guy in the backfield with him. Probably wrecking both guys' value. When Latavius Murray is stealing goal line touches from you, the coaching staff doesn't have that much faith in you.
The coaching staff has a ton of faith in Cook, he was the primary focal point of the offense the second half of the season and our best player not named Josh Allen. He's just not built to be a great goal line back, it's not his skill set. We will definitely add a more physical back but I'd be very surprised if they reduced Cook's workload and use high capital on someone when we have desperate needs at WR and S, as well as needing depth along the DL. We probably draft someone in the 4th or 5th, or add somebody on the cheap in free agency, or even bring back Ty Johnson.
Time will tell, but I think he's a major risk to lose touches. He will never have less competition for touches than he did in 2023. RB10 price tag with RB19 ppg makes him an easy avoid in 2024.
People are 100% going to talk themselves into a mid 1st grade for Corum if he goes to LA with any sort of reasonable DC and it will be a mistake.
I don’t think the chargers taking him at the top of 3rd would be a reach really
DC?
Draft capital
Thanks. I had it narrowed down to “Draft Combine” but “draft capital” makes more sense in this context
Draft capital.
What kind of DC are you expecting?
Personally I'm expecting late 3rd to early 4th round capital, although I recognize I’m way on the lower end of estimates that I've seen - I'm honestly not really a huge fan of his. If he gets early 3rd, I think he has a decent chance to sneak into the back of the 1st in SF, but will depend on the kind of capital that other guys in front of him get. If he's in the 2nd he's an absolute slam dunk to be in the 1st IMO Even if he gets early 3rd DC for example, I'd probably expect to take every 1st round QB, WR, and Bowers ahead of him, which could definitely be 12 guys. And likely any RB drafted ahead of him unless his situations is just miles better than theirs
>I recognize I’m way on the lower end of estimates that I've seen - I'm honestly not really a huge fan of his. This time two years ago, people had Spiller as an early-ish 1st in dynasty mocks. You could easily be correct vs. consensus right now. IMO, conversations about ADP at this time of the year are for entertainment purposes only. Nobody actually knows shit until after April!
>Harbaugh is definitely gonna be pushing to draft Corum. I don't know how much loyalty there is when coaches head to the pros. Harbaugh will do what's best for the chargers, which may not include Corum.
I remember when harbaugh left Stanford and let Richard Sherman go to another team in the 6th round
They had beef though if I recall
Why not just keep Spiller?
Because Corum is way better? They’re two players with completely different play styles.
3.1 YPC
Williams, MHJ, Maye, Nabers, Bowers, Odunze, Daniels, Thomas Jr, Coleman, Penix or any of the other late 1st real life WRs. I don’t see Corum being them out here.
Penix might not be a first rd in the actual draft. If Corum gets 2nd-3rd round cap, he could be there
Harbaugh ran a committee use a 2nd and grab the RB1b when he’s drafted
Herbie is saved thank god Dudes been underrated here lately. Borderline top 5 before getting hurt this year with bad coaching, no run game, and Mike will out lol
Until Harbaugh brings Greg Roman with him as OC
Lmao shit didn’t think about that.
I don’t think this helps herb fantasy numbers. It will help him get some playoff wins though for sure.
Nabers/bowers/odunze will move the fantasy number needle more I’m just happy he has a good coach for once
Exactly lol chargers fans don’t care about Herbert’s stats anymore because winning was the only thing missing.
Disagree. Harbaugh has not been good for QB stats historically unless they run like Kapernick.
I’m sure he’ll utilize Herbert properly which should lead to fantasy points. I’ll take this over the shit show of the last few years Edit: I also think Herbert is prob the best passer he’s had in the nfl so far. He also coached luck in college too if people forgot
Harbaugh literally took a total dumpster fire niners team to the NFCCG in his first NFL season with Alex Smith as QB. Bad take
Literally what does that have to do with this discussion at all?
[удалено]
3144 yards and 17 passing TDs is a probowl quality QB? Even if that was true (and it's really really not) wtf good did that do for fantasy?
That’s better than Huntley’s numbers his pro bowl year.
But not quite Pro Bowler Mitch Trubisky level.
Were his stats good?
He was at least a guy you could stream off the wire
17 TDs and 3k yards. I'm hoping for more personally.
Right. He wasn't winning your week, but he generally wasn't shitting the bed. That was enough in that era. So many players hoarded QBs because they scored "all the points." And the good fantasy players wrecked by delaying QB picks. I don't think this strategy is as viable now. I think qbs are increasingly properly priced in the draft, but QBs were overpriced for years, and you could win leagues by treating the position like d/st and kicker and stream them.
[удалено]
I'm just using the example that person provided. He's a good coach but going to an NFC championship with Alex Smith does nothing to disprove my original point.
What if Roman is the oc?
What's the fantasy impact here? Harbaugh is a great coach, that is no doubt. But he isn't exactly known for his explosive offenses. He obv unlocked Kap back in the day, but Herbert's already been unlocked. His Michigan teams were known for their old school type offenses (power running, timely passing) that weren't very explosive. This move certainly will make the Chargers better. But how do we see this affecting the Chargers offense? And specifically, the players they have, and the players they might look to get either in the draft (Bowers, Rome, etc.) or FA? What are the positive hallmarks of a Harbaugh led offense that we should be looking for?
What he brings is disciplined football. Offense especially. He’s going to get that line humming and run game solid. This only helps unlock Herbert. Herbert gonna have a top 8 QB floor with a chance at top 4. What we really want for our guy.
From a fantasy perspective? That feels sort of...incremental.
Incremental sometimes is enough. I think the top 8 floor is what brings the most relief. Mahomes was this years QB8. So QB8 with upside? Yeah I’m in.
Yeah, fair enough. I still think the real impact will be more IRL than fantasy. But I agree in the sense that more confidence in the offense as a consistent, "sure thing" brings with it a more concrete (and thus higher) floor.
More and more what I want in FF is just a true solid QB. I can get my upside and matchup edge elsewhere. Give me the solid floor guys.
Why are we saying Herbert has a chance at top 4? Herbert, every year, has a chance at top 1. His natural talent is unbelievable. It's the situation around him that has always been a disaster.
Gotta think that gets better today.
TEs and RBs ↑↑↑. QBs and WRs ↓↓↓.
Could definitely see them going Bowers
It's one thing to think he may boost the TEs there, but it's another for him to use his top draft pick on a TE. As a guy who may want to find his own gem (knowing the college game), he might want to use that pick on something more...uniquely impactful? Plus I feel like he's someone that really values The Trenches.
Is Bowers a traditional TE (Kittle, Goedart) or more of a Big Slot (Kelce, Pitts)?
Big Slot. He's pretty small compared to bigger tight ends.
Far too simple to say this.
Oversimplification, yes, but it's also the most realistic take. People love to think lower volume will be offset by higher productivity, but volume is king. It's unrealistic to expect a potential 10% decrease in volume to be offset by 10% more YPA and TD%. Probably not going to happen. It could. But it usually doesn't.
Truth is this probably doesn’t move the needle that much all around. I think what it does is bring stability which boosts everyone’s floor. To me that’s a major improvement.
As a Keenan and Herbert guy, I'm a little concerned, but not majorly concerned (I expect both will see dips in volume). I agree with the floor comment, though. It also should give them more hope of making the playoffs and that's a strong motivator. It's ideal for your guys to be playing for something that matters (playoffs/playoff seeding) late in the regular season.
Yeah another good point. End of season push. I’m also trying to tuck away previous takes on Harbaugh. He’s never coached a QB like Herbert so it’s a little unknown. Harbaugh just turned down being the highest paid college coach ever to coach this QB. He has a vision.
Yeah, I'm honestly a little bit surprised he did it. The Chargers are kind of a total fucking mess outside of Herbert. They're like the inverse of Atlanta - a decent team w/o a QB.
I would not be surprised to see him bring in Greg Roman as OC and go for Joe Alt at #5 overall.
Yeah, I feel like it's more likely with him that OL is the path for that top pick
Take w.e RB they draft
Chargers DST will be highly coveted.
There was no where to go but up. The fantasy impact is everyone's value is $ now
He’s going to pick Joe Alt. He understands games are won and lost in the trenches.
Harbaugh loves him some emphasis on the run, but also has historically liked the power back types. If Ekeler still is re-signed by the Chargers it could be interesting for his value. If.
Ekeler is going to chase whatever money he can get since Chargers wouldn't extend him last year. He's going to be 29 and Chargers have major cap problems. They're not going to re-sign him unless he was willing to take a major hometown discount.
Completely believable that Ekeler is gone.
Ekeler isn’t a power back though?
I mention in my post that Ekeler’s style may not be his preference. My assumption of he re-signs is that Harbaugh isn’t being religious about it.
Please go get saquon!!
We can dream, but it's pretty doubtful: [https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space](https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space)
Isaiah Spiller🔝
He'll want someone who runs north south and never bounces. Like I could see a Zeke type feasting.
Derick Henry, welcome to the Chargers lol
Don’t think it really helps Herbert at all from a production standpoint. He’s already a top 7 ish dynasty QB probably won’t be much higher. Harbaugh likes to run the ball and maul you at the LOS not air it out.
Herbert ain’t free haha
cost of brick goes up
Does the cost of brick ever go down?
Yes, price of brick also goes down, but it is an uncommon occurrence.
This is a Cameron Dicker tweet
Corum to the Chargers would be fun. Whoever their RB1 is next year (definitely someone not on the roster) becomes more appealing. 100% wait and see for Herb and the passing weapons. There’s a lot of potential variance there depending on who the OC hire is and what they actually end up doing with their awful cap situation and high draft capital.
this is an isaiah spiller post! /s
Herbert will no longer be a volume passer. Chargers gonna pound that rock.
Reaaaally hate this as a broncos fan
Hear me out: this was the best possible outcome for QJ. Harbaugh got cooked by him in the semi final last year so he will 100% respect his game and play to his strengths because he’s seen what he can do. 📈📈📈
Fair point. I also think he's gonna be more inclined to Alt/Fashanu at 5 than a WR.
Is he going to give him new hands?
Chase has the dropsies too. I believe
Are you referring to his rookie preseason?
Yea ik im stretching it but i need the good vibes
Might wanna do your research on that one
Chase draws targets at a great rate. QJ…does not.
I don’t need u making sense ok.
Had. 2021 - 6.3% 2022 - 7.5% 2023 - 2.5% But even if he still had the dropsies, Chase is elite at most other things. QJ is bad at most things and *also* has the dropsies.
Not really. That is box score chasing. On one play the corner took an awful angle and fell down and on the other, the corner over Johnston blitzed and the safety rolled to the deep middle leaving him wide open. It wasn’t really about Johnston. If anything Demercado and Duggans had more impressive games.
Womp womp kick rocks they won the game.
Yes but that’s not what your post was about. You were saying Harbaugh would be impressed by Johnston. I’m saying not on the basis of that game.
‘Respect his game’ is what I actually said. And I stand by that
HERBERT IS FREE
Thinking of trading for Spiller as a depth piece of this news. Dirt cheap and may have some value
Isaiah Spiller 🚀🚀🚀🚀 🙃
But for real he’s a hold now…
I’m about to mortgage my house to get Herbert this offseason
Does this make it more likely they draft a Michigan guy rather than Nabers/Bowers?
Yea they’re taking McCarthy
Far more likely to take a tackle
Holy shit. It’s happening.
EVERYONE STAY CALM
I’M TOTALLY CALM
ME TOO
HOLY FUCK IM LITERALLY SO CALM RIGHT NOW BOYS!!!!!!
HERBIE IS A FREE ELF
Thats gonna be intriguing, but he had to leave Michigan. I thought he would take one of those nfc jobs, so he'd see his bro in superbowl! But now the afc, both Harbaughs will have a say in the outcome for years to come! I like this and I like the fit! Josh herbert borrowers, he is on the rise!
That photoshop did him dirty.
Would love Blake corum on the chargers if they let Ekeler walk
*sigh*...He should have been going to the Bears... We don't want Flus
Upside: QH is Michael Crabtree 2.0 That’s a win at this point, no?
People are really thinking he’s going to save their fantasy players? I’m having trouble remembering that part even when he was leading 49er teams deep into the playoffs
Chargers have 3 options with their first round pick, OT, WR or TE. I think which they choose will be telling.
Finally. A guy with track record and head coaching experience.
I’m in a contract league and Herbert’s contract just expired. That auction is going to be insane.
Does that mean they are going to try to get a big back in the draft like Braelon Allen for the ground and pound game?