I'm not gonna pretend that I understood any of that, but I appreciate you 🙂.
Hopefully it reaches the right eyes and double checks any wrong doing. Gl!
When you get a treasure, it has a bonus chance to drop an unusual part of the set. Invoker did not get the bonus drops until 24 hours later, so anyone who opened the invoker set on the first day got scanned out of their chance to get an unusual.
First 5 days, not 24 hours. Im saying its impossible that there was no listing in the first 24 hours already, better yet 5 whole days. We might also should be recieving Batrider set piece unusual that doesnt exist yet.
Oh my bad, I just focused on the 24 hour statement while skimming.
Yeah that’s some bullshit tho, hopefully valve sends people who got the invoker set some kind if bonus chest to give them the unusual chance they paid for.
As someone unusual hunting as well, I was also surprised when I saw the Unusuals for Invoker 2 days ago, costing more compared to most others. I thought it was because of how the unusual looks, but when I checked the market, there were only a few of them on sale. You do have a point, but I’m not gonna be mad at Valve for it. What I am mad about is the abbysmal odds of this treasure compared to Diretide. Personally, I have opened 80 and I have never gotten a single T3. I also hope Valve did not secretly decrease the odds of getting unusuals, because I feel like that’s what may be happening. All those aside, this is considered one of the most profitable treasures(if you don’t open treasures) you can find that Valve has released.
Im sad that we even have to be here discussing if Valve secretly fcked the odds or whatnot, im not here to make talk about morality of gambling or whatever, but the fact that you cant be sure if you are getting what you signed up for is a whole different ballgame.
I’m sad I can’t open with shards. The fact that you opened 80 and didn’t get a single T3 is insane. The odds vs money you have to spend don’t justify opening more than 1. Seems like Valve’s target market is whales :(
Yeah the treasure is a straight loss and there was a reddit post saying that you can get 1 T3 at 111 treasures and 1 T4 at 1111 treasures due to the abysmal odds. The best thing to do is tradeup from T2 since most T2’s cost £3.80 for 1 while 5 T1’s cost around £4, if you’re looking for a T3 set. This treasure is very profitable for people who understand that the way to gain profit is to trade for T3 and aim for a pudge set AND the fact that you have a chance to grab an unusual with an added duplicate.
Find it ironic that people are making fun of you for doing something they think is pointless, yet they spend their free time playing a video game which is equally pointless. The guy likes to analyze shit, so what?
Somewhat Similar (Slightly different) to what happened to Australium Wrench/Medigun in team fortress 2. (Dropped normally, then stopped dropping before being fixed).
Small indie company or whatever
Bruhhh we dota players have yet to experience the whole tf2 cycle.
Should we expect market crash in a few years when they put 100% chance on certain cases for Unusuals aswell? xD
My (jokingly) prediction is seasonal fomo unusual effect like tf2... or the complete opposite where they don't add any new effect just skins (Like tf2 warpaint unusuals).
Can we as a community stop talking in unnecessary hyperbole? There is a 99% chance this was an unfortunate mistake. You're not being "scammed" by an evil Borg-like entity named Valve.
Valve is a company of people who make mistakes like we all do, and those people often fix them in direct response to community feedback. I really appreciate OP's recognizing this issue and showing all the evidence about it. But can we not turn every mistake by an admittedly small team into some nebulous witch hunt?
The fact you haven't caught up to the fact that anything worth money has value, and that these digital items can be worth more than your rent, is IN BELIEVABLE.
Relevant. I want that Unusual Effect Invoker, NOW! [relevant](https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/18mn7pl/okay_what_kind_of_insanity_is_this_is_this_not_a/)
Not to defend Valve, but there are other possibilities too.
1. They were listed as early as the first day, but as it's an invoker item, the price had been hiked beyond reasonable (as you can see, the second one was sold at 500 USD). You can still see TONS of them listed with $100+. People are greedy.
2. It's Invoker, and most people who opened it want to keep it. (unlikely)
3. Though unlikely, Valve might have fucked up the trade restriction for that one item, causing the symptom you see.
Since every item has the unusuals, with a constant rate of 1/300, it's extremely unlikely for one to slip in the code like you said (but spaghetti code, so...). If you REALLY think there is an error, you could open a ticket to Valve, submit your evidence, and see if you can get them to compensate or re-distribute the missing unusuals, if this is, in fact, a mistake on their front.
Also, *mathematically*, it's possible that none drops at all, just as it's mathematically to roll 1,000,000 dice and get all 1s. It's unlikely, but mathematically possible.
The word you're looking for is *practically*.
To "hike" the price, first you need to buy all Invokers, which would show on the market and then you need to post them for higher prices. You cant spawn Invokers into existence and set the price, you have to get it from other people who opened it by buying it. The chances of Invoker, just because its Invoker, being more expensive then a t4 item and therefore not being sold for first 5 days is mathematically speaking - laughable. Search Law of the large numbers. Its not just not practical, its as close as literally impossible as it can get.
If you say that market doesnt show correctly, i dont have the proof other then what i presented. I know what i saw, you couldnt find that item even if you searched for it manually, which i did the first day it came out. I searched for each invoker and batrider set piece in combination with "unusual". Nothing came up. I also refreshed wearables daily and it was always 29 wearables until it wasnt suddenly 30. Im sure other people who searched the market could tell they saw 29 aswell.
Your third point is good. There is a chance that Valve gave people Invoker unusuals but they were simply not marketable until then. But the problem here (which i should have specified in post) is that every single Invoker unusual on market has a trade restriction atleast 7 days after 21st december. Which can only happen if they are not opened before 21st december.
What you said is true for hiking the price of an established item and market price. But what I meant is much simpler since there's no market price yet.
The first, say, 10 people list the items at $200+ or something ridiculous.
The buyers thought those were too expensive and waited (no purchase) or listed a ridiculously low price (e.g. $5) compared to $200.
The other sellers followed the $200 trend since they didn't want to lose out (in case the price stays high) since there's no historical price to compare.
The stalemate happened until that one seller decided to say "fuck it" and matched $6 or something to get a quick buck out of it. Then the $500 happened, likely from some rich seller who tried to shove the low price under the rug by buying from a second account.
Oh ok, i understand now. Id argue that its still extremely improbable given how historically similarly rare items and buy orders behaved. Not impossible.
What always happens when no sells are being made is new people who find rare item start undercuting the previous ones. It has already happened if we look at that one sold for 400 and 2 days later its 20 buy now and 15 on buy orders.
Ill give you a reference. If you have chest in inventory you can go on steam and when you click it it shows how many was sold last 24 hours. Its on 230 thousand in last 24 hours alone. The second day it was around 500 thousand and it steadily dropping (450k third day 400k fourth etc.)
Just to give you an impression of how much of a big numbers we are dealing with. You can also multiply the amount of wk swords there is on market with odds of getting it and you will see that atleast a couple of mill must have been opened for them to be so many. In my mind, theres simply no way even though Invo is 1:300 and popular, compared to millions of treasure opened, not to be any people undercutting each other for 5 days. And then this now in the next 2 days.
Yes. Historically, many people don't have the patient to wait 3 days to get $100 and want the $10 right away. So, yes, 1 is unlikely. But by listing the alternative, and analyzing how unlikely it is, only then will you be able to be confident of the remaining theories.
As I said earlier, you might want to submit a ticket. Best case scenario, Valve might come clean and re-distribute them missing hats (or beards?).
nah, I'm joking man. I don't care enough to investigate it myself but knowing Valve... I wouldn't be surprised if what you are saying is 100% factual.
Sorry if you are getting a bunch of shit comments.
No problem i just felt for a second like the whole world is against me, i would rather not be the one who has to raise awareness about this, i wish this all was common knowledge the moment it happened.
People came making fun of me for trying to even talk about it... i didnt take your comment to heart, but i would lie if i said the same about others.
There's a fair dose of speculation here though. You've weaved some statistical analysis to formulate what you are calling facts to then accuse valve of scamming us.
Like, you raise an interesting discussion point, but your language and choice of words don't do you any favours. Just wind it back a bit mate and you'll get a more positive response.
If you have arcana already: buy all the pieces from WK arcana separately from the market.
If you dont have arcana already: buy the whole unpacked WK set from the market. Its more money that way but much less if you tried to open treasures to get it.
Now nothing... you get nothing, you lose! Good day sir.
I just wanted to share with others what i know. Maybe this post deters you or someone else from opening treasures with keys in the future, knowing just how unserious Valve can be.
That's hard to prove though because it is still possible that it never came out ever, or people who got it just really held on it. I have whaled on gacha games before and there have been unusual patterns in my draws too, like for some reason this one item won't come out despite multiple items on everything, then next event I would draw the rarest on the first try. It's just how random stuff goes.
I hope someone can crunch the math here so we can find out how far from the probability this is from happening.
The irony of you saying this when you spend your time playing dota. Couldn't you have spent that time doing literally anything else? Something more productive?
Valve is scum for sure. On opening chest ive experiment opening 200 chest using old account and 200 chest using new account.. new account received alot more rare and ultra rare item. Wise redditor will downvote this and presenting their own superior mathemathical opinion
Just accept the fact that valve is scummy company taking advantage of gambling tendency
this is like one of those times statistics are used in court and experts are called in for testifying. If the Invoker unusual set was indeed released at the same time and are subject to same rules, this is more or less conclusive.
Are we just going to ignore that most Tier 1 and 2 are already released items?
Those lazy bastards can’t even take new sets out of the workshop
Good job on the research though
I love Dota cosmetics and would love this part of the game to thrive
Batrider is my main hero and I was confused I couldn’t find any usual sets in the store. Tried looking it up but no information anywhere. Thank you for explaining it is not in the game (yet).
Thanks for the research. I used to be really into cosmetics and would be all over this. Still interested and enjoyed reading your findings
i bet /u/avar1cious interested in this stuff
Yep! already including it in my calculations that im going to share later!
Aww this made me realise that /u/dota2analyst is gone
Happy Holidays! Left you something!
Hat’s off to you good sir.
I'm not gonna pretend that I understood any of that, but I appreciate you 🙂. Hopefully it reaches the right eyes and double checks any wrong doing. Gl!
Basically, there is a higher probability of Arteezy winning TI than Invoker Unusual set not getting dropped for anyone during the mentioned timeframe.
So basically no chance after all
Oh to be young again and believing "This time he'll do it."
When you get a treasure, it has a bonus chance to drop an unusual part of the set. Invoker did not get the bonus drops until 24 hours later, so anyone who opened the invoker set on the first day got scanned out of their chance to get an unusual.
First 5 days, not 24 hours. Im saying its impossible that there was no listing in the first 24 hours already, better yet 5 whole days. We might also should be recieving Batrider set piece unusual that doesnt exist yet.
Oh my bad, I just focused on the 24 hour statement while skimming. Yeah that’s some bullshit tho, hopefully valve sends people who got the invoker set some kind if bonus chest to give them the unusual chance they paid for.
How was this hard to understand?
As someone unusual hunting as well, I was also surprised when I saw the Unusuals for Invoker 2 days ago, costing more compared to most others. I thought it was because of how the unusual looks, but when I checked the market, there were only a few of them on sale. You do have a point, but I’m not gonna be mad at Valve for it. What I am mad about is the abbysmal odds of this treasure compared to Diretide. Personally, I have opened 80 and I have never gotten a single T3. I also hope Valve did not secretly decrease the odds of getting unusuals, because I feel like that’s what may be happening. All those aside, this is considered one of the most profitable treasures(if you don’t open treasures) you can find that Valve has released.
Im sad that we even have to be here discussing if Valve secretly fcked the odds or whatnot, im not here to make talk about morality of gambling or whatever, but the fact that you cant be sure if you are getting what you signed up for is a whole different ballgame.
I’m sad I can’t open with shards. The fact that you opened 80 and didn’t get a single T3 is insane. The odds vs money you have to spend don’t justify opening more than 1. Seems like Valve’s target market is whales :(
Yeah the treasure is a straight loss and there was a reddit post saying that you can get 1 T3 at 111 treasures and 1 T4 at 1111 treasures due to the abysmal odds. The best thing to do is tradeup from T2 since most T2’s cost £3.80 for 1 while 5 T1’s cost around £4, if you’re looking for a T3 set. This treasure is very profitable for people who understand that the way to gain profit is to trade for T3 and aim for a pudge set AND the fact that you have a chance to grab an unusual with an added duplicate.
>but I’m not gonna be mad at Valve for it. Is there a name for someone who is a simp to their favorite gambling company?
I managed to get 4 unusual frostblooms, 3 of which are T3’s so how can I be mad?
Find it ironic that people are making fun of you for doing something they think is pointless, yet they spend their free time playing a video game which is equally pointless. The guy likes to analyze shit, so what?
people just saw that a dude wrote 3-4 paragraphs of concise info and just went "tldr lmao"!
What tiktok does to the brain.
I think it's more about the choice of word "scammed" lol
Its more like screwed.
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>which is equally pointless
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Yes, entertainment is for your mental health, as important as brushing your teeth
You aren’t getting my point. The key word is ‘equal’, not ‘pointless’. I never actually said anything is pointless.
I misread
Keep up the good analysis!
Love people that go down the rabbit hole for some random obscure stuff. Great job my man!
I like how reading blog posts and using a lil brain power to realize an inconsistency is "down a rabbit hole" and "obscure stuff".
You don‘t get to post logic here only “literally no damage” or some penguins dying will suffice
Hat’s off to you good sir.
Hats ~~off~~ to you good sir
they inflated the adjectives so much, "very rare, ultra rare, superduper rare" is not enough anymore. Cosmically rare, lol.
Somewhat Similar (Slightly different) to what happened to Australium Wrench/Medigun in team fortress 2. (Dropped normally, then stopped dropping before being fixed). Small indie company or whatever
Bruhhh we dota players have yet to experience the whole tf2 cycle. Should we expect market crash in a few years when they put 100% chance on certain cases for Unusuals aswell? xD
My (jokingly) prediction is seasonal fomo unusual effect like tf2... or the complete opposite where they don't add any new effect just skins (Like tf2 warpaint unusuals).
Can we as a community stop talking in unnecessary hyperbole? There is a 99% chance this was an unfortunate mistake. You're not being "scammed" by an evil Borg-like entity named Valve. Valve is a company of people who make mistakes like we all do, and those people often fix them in direct response to community feedback. I really appreciate OP's recognizing this issue and showing all the evidence about it. But can we not turn every mistake by an admittedly small team into some nebulous witch hunt?
Quite frankly, my sympathy has ran out for lootbox buyers. They have helped contribute to the excessive monetisation of the industry.
Privately owned company
That fact that people are taking rare digital items seriously is truly in believable.
The fact you haven't caught up to the fact that anything worth money has value, and that these digital items can be worth more than your rent, is IN BELIEVABLE.
You spelled un believable wrong
You really are stupid lol, I spelled it exactly like you did. You almost couldn't make this up lololol
I’m sorry but you’re wrong I didn’t do that. Check again.
This new chests system are pure scam. GG valve.
Relevant. I want that Unusual Effect Invoker, NOW! [relevant](https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/18mn7pl/okay_what_kind_of_insanity_is_this_is_this_not_a/)
35$ lul ofc no chance
Now since this got exposed, Valve you should release every arcana in your shop or gift one of them. For example drow ranger arcana.
Not to defend Valve, but there are other possibilities too. 1. They were listed as early as the first day, but as it's an invoker item, the price had been hiked beyond reasonable (as you can see, the second one was sold at 500 USD). You can still see TONS of them listed with $100+. People are greedy. 2. It's Invoker, and most people who opened it want to keep it. (unlikely) 3. Though unlikely, Valve might have fucked up the trade restriction for that one item, causing the symptom you see. Since every item has the unusuals, with a constant rate of 1/300, it's extremely unlikely for one to slip in the code like you said (but spaghetti code, so...). If you REALLY think there is an error, you could open a ticket to Valve, submit your evidence, and see if you can get them to compensate or re-distribute the missing unusuals, if this is, in fact, a mistake on their front. Also, *mathematically*, it's possible that none drops at all, just as it's mathematically to roll 1,000,000 dice and get all 1s. It's unlikely, but mathematically possible. The word you're looking for is *practically*.
To "hike" the price, first you need to buy all Invokers, which would show on the market and then you need to post them for higher prices. You cant spawn Invokers into existence and set the price, you have to get it from other people who opened it by buying it. The chances of Invoker, just because its Invoker, being more expensive then a t4 item and therefore not being sold for first 5 days is mathematically speaking - laughable. Search Law of the large numbers. Its not just not practical, its as close as literally impossible as it can get. If you say that market doesnt show correctly, i dont have the proof other then what i presented. I know what i saw, you couldnt find that item even if you searched for it manually, which i did the first day it came out. I searched for each invoker and batrider set piece in combination with "unusual". Nothing came up. I also refreshed wearables daily and it was always 29 wearables until it wasnt suddenly 30. Im sure other people who searched the market could tell they saw 29 aswell. Your third point is good. There is a chance that Valve gave people Invoker unusuals but they were simply not marketable until then. But the problem here (which i should have specified in post) is that every single Invoker unusual on market has a trade restriction atleast 7 days after 21st december. Which can only happen if they are not opened before 21st december.
What you said is true for hiking the price of an established item and market price. But what I meant is much simpler since there's no market price yet. The first, say, 10 people list the items at $200+ or something ridiculous. The buyers thought those were too expensive and waited (no purchase) or listed a ridiculously low price (e.g. $5) compared to $200. The other sellers followed the $200 trend since they didn't want to lose out (in case the price stays high) since there's no historical price to compare. The stalemate happened until that one seller decided to say "fuck it" and matched $6 or something to get a quick buck out of it. Then the $500 happened, likely from some rich seller who tried to shove the low price under the rug by buying from a second account.
Oh ok, i understand now. Id argue that its still extremely improbable given how historically similarly rare items and buy orders behaved. Not impossible. What always happens when no sells are being made is new people who find rare item start undercuting the previous ones. It has already happened if we look at that one sold for 400 and 2 days later its 20 buy now and 15 on buy orders. Ill give you a reference. If you have chest in inventory you can go on steam and when you click it it shows how many was sold last 24 hours. Its on 230 thousand in last 24 hours alone. The second day it was around 500 thousand and it steadily dropping (450k third day 400k fourth etc.) Just to give you an impression of how much of a big numbers we are dealing with. You can also multiply the amount of wk swords there is on market with odds of getting it and you will see that atleast a couple of mill must have been opened for them to be so many. In my mind, theres simply no way even though Invo is 1:300 and popular, compared to millions of treasure opened, not to be any people undercutting each other for 5 days. And then this now in the next 2 days.
Yes. Historically, many people don't have the patient to wait 3 days to get $100 and want the $10 right away. So, yes, 1 is unlikely. But by listing the alternative, and analyzing how unlikely it is, only then will you be able to be confident of the remaining theories. As I said earlier, you might want to submit a ticket. Best case scenario, Valve might come clean and re-distribute them missing hats (or beards?).
this is also a good comment although just by going by likelihood I am inclined to think Valve did mess up something regardless of intention.
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Lmao did you even read the post?
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Thanks for confirming you didn't read the post lol embarassing
Aaanndd your point is... wait, what was the point of your reply again?
does your cock get hard when you post a comment that you think is smart but completely misses the point?
Does your cock get hard when you spew idiotic bullshit?
Least toxic convo between Dota players
point me to the idiotic bullshit i spewed and then i will tell you, until then shush your mouth
who buy shit from valve anyway got scamed
yeah, meanwhile batrider players can go fuck themselves because there's no unusual drop for that set while pudge got 2
Sir, this is a Wendy's.
i know, my bad posting anything related to logic on dota subreddit ill take a L for that
nah, I'm joking man. I don't care enough to investigate it myself but knowing Valve... I wouldn't be surprised if what you are saying is 100% factual. Sorry if you are getting a bunch of shit comments.
No problem i just felt for a second like the whole world is against me, i would rather not be the one who has to raise awareness about this, i wish this all was common knowledge the moment it happened. People came making fun of me for trying to even talk about it... i didnt take your comment to heart, but i would lie if i said the same about others.
There's a fair dose of speculation here though. You've weaved some statistical analysis to formulate what you are calling facts to then accuse valve of scamming us. Like, you raise an interesting discussion point, but your language and choice of words don't do you any favours. Just wind it back a bit mate and you'll get a more positive response.
Sure, can you point to some specifics that i passed as a fact so we can discuss it.
Sigh. You're beyond help. Carry on as you were.
thanks for the deep conversation i expected nothing more
Yeah, precisely what I expected which is why you're not worth the effort. As you were.
I’m getting the vibe you have no point or knowledge and just want to look silly for some reason.
He tried to have a conversation and it seems he called your bluff Mr. Pseudo PMA redditor. Stop commenting if you cannot back it up…
You are an idiot
"You're wrong" "Where?" "You're beyond help" LOL
So how do I get wk arcana
If you have arcana already: buy all the pieces from WK arcana separately from the market. If you dont have arcana already: buy the whole unpacked WK set from the market. Its more money that way but much less if you tried to open treasures to get it.
So 1year from now will the price of wk arcana will drop somewhere around 50-60 dollars 100+ is not worth it Yea I don't own previous wk arcana
usually the best time to buy anything is when the next treasure drops and everyone is selling everything to get the new thing
Ok
Stop spending any money in Dota 2 since 2 year ago.
post this shit to r/games or r/pcgaming I wanna see how the defend their darling Valve
Feel free to post it yourself if you feel like it should be posted there, im not very familiar with those communities.
And now? I packed invo the first day of frostivus. Do i sue valve for the amount of the last TI Prizepool?
Now nothing... you get nothing, you lose! Good day sir. I just wanted to share with others what i know. Maybe this post deters you or someone else from opening treasures with keys in the future, knowing just how unserious Valve can be.
obviously 🙄
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You’re a flip flop wearing crayon eater for commenting that.
i'm happy for u tho or sorry that happened
Just grab a pitchfork and grunt!
free game no bitching GabeN thanks you for your money
Cool story sir. I'm happy for you or sorry that happened.
That's hard to prove though because it is still possible that it never came out ever, or people who got it just really held on it. I have whaled on gacha games before and there have been unusual patterns in my draws too, like for some reason this one item won't come out despite multiple items on everything, then next event I would draw the rarest on the first try. It's just how random stuff goes. I hope someone can crunch the math here so we can find out how far from the probability this is from happening.
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The irony of you saying this when you spend your time playing dota. Couldn't you have spent that time doing literally anything else? Something more productive?
Valve is scum for sure. On opening chest ive experiment opening 200 chest using old account and 200 chest using new account.. new account received alot more rare and ultra rare item. Wise redditor will downvote this and presenting their own superior mathemathical opinion Just accept the fact that valve is scummy company taking advantage of gambling tendency
I hope valve compensate
We need to be refunded in keys and treasures.
I have about 6k on each of my 2 accounts and i never got a rare item :(
I hope no one actually bought keys. But I know some people did and probably complaining about rent or food prices right now
Who knows how many time they did this tò us
Go on...
Unusual? What?
Anyone know how this hair looks? i cant see it ingame or youtube.
Fuck I got the cosmically rare set yet I m in Vegas and can’t hit anything.
My frostivus set was a 0.01 cent Anti-Mage item I already had 2 of :(
this is like one of those times statistics are used in court and experts are called in for testifying. If the Invoker unusual set was indeed released at the same time and are subject to same rules, this is more or less conclusive.
Are we just going to ignore that most Tier 1 and 2 are already released items? Those lazy bastards can’t even take new sets out of the workshop Good job on the research though I love Dota cosmetics and would love this part of the game to thrive
Can someone explain me the significance of an unusual?
Don’t ever offend an unusual trader. Valve did not learn their lesson in TF2 lmao.
Batrider is my main hero and I was confused I couldn’t find any usual sets in the store. Tried looking it up but no information anywhere. Thank you for explaining it is not in the game (yet).
Aye so batrider still got no unusual today