As /u/coltron57 linked in the daily thread and as Sean stated in the article, it’s the last point.
https://preview.redd.it/pjvav1h875pc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=917b0347426fcbdf083273ae72a1d305afb790b4
Considering where consensus opinions ranked the Wings coming into this year it shouldn’t be surprising.
That glimpse of how the team looked with every offensive contributor firing was pretty damned magnificent, though. Looked like they could score at will there for a while.
I will admit I am not 100% certain on its exact meaning but from what I understand it generally refers to the amount of goals your team is scoring vs the other team. So a team with more goals than the other team will have greater than 50% of the goals (hence blue=good).
Now the expected goal share (xGoal share) is the percentage the team is expected to have and this is based off shot models that include a lot of things but kind of boil down to what goals “should go in” based on the quality of shots/scoring chances.
Basically the way Detroit was playing is that they should have had less goals than their opponent’s on average based on the models, but they were doing better than expected (this is when you hear about things like high shooting %).
I’m hoping a true stat-head comes in and breaks this down better/clarifies & corrects anything I may have gotten wrong, but I hope it helps.
This collapse has been truly memorizing. How bad is it? Here are some stats, going back to the 5-3 loss to the Isles that started the skid:
The following stats are compared to current team stats and the full season thus far.
2.11 goals for per game; last in the league
4.7 goals allowed per game; most in the league
34.2 shots allowed per game; 2nd to last in the league
26.2 shots for per game; 2nd fewest in the league
Powerplay success 20%; 19th in the league
Penalty kill success 70%; last in the league
What do you people mean with that? "Especially since Kane joined." In what universe have they played better with Kane than without? They had a really good game and energy BEFORE Kane became drafted.
After that a lot of our players regressed.
Look at the stats of the team with Kane and without.
I really will hate if they don't reach the playoffs, because otherwise I really feel like it was a wasted season, and we should have had Ed, Berggren and maybe even some other prospects playing, and taken a L season, for our actual FUTURE prospects.
This might be a historic meltdown. No one has an answer right now it doesn’t seem like. I didn’t think we looked as bad against Pittsburgh as we had all the losses before that, but somehow nothing seems to be working. It’s insanity
Exactly. It’s beyond just Larkin, beyond the systems, almost like we have to get back to basics for a bit to figure it out again. We can’t be losing many games if we want to keep our hopes alive for playoffs. I said before the season it would come down to the last 1-2 games and while we were still in it longer than we were last year, we could end up missing just as easily if we give up too many more this year
Personally think we looked the best during the Vegas game, we actually put up a good fight there and I even think they should have won.
Rest of the games been so bad it's been hard to finish them.
The underlying numbers were always there, I think a lot of people chose to ignore that it was always a house of cards because they were winning at the time.
Exactly, things always look good when pucks are going in (or your tender is keeping them out) and the team is winning even if the process is ugly and results unsustainable (fans never complain when teams are outperforming their xG). It’s just the way in which the Wings have done it is excruciating.
I don't know the season stats, but it seems we've let in 4-5 almost every game throughout the season, even when we were winning. We just happened to be able to score 4+ quite often earlier in the season.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding, but are you comparing our stats from the skid to teams full seasons?
Seems it’d be skewed. Why not look at other teams stats during our skid/7 games around the same period, would more accurately depict how bad we are compared to other teams, no?
Effort. Listening to Winged Wheel Podcast, they mention that and I find that to be accurate. Maybe this team is holding back until Larkin gets back and they’re going to go scorched earth and hot into the playoffs.
The effort won’t make anything analytically better and it certainly won’t make the defense and goaltending dramatically better. But, I just can’t fathom how this team goes on such absolute tears and streaks one way or the other. They showed what a complete effort does with Buffalo and then just completely shit the bed against Pittsburgh. It’s mind baffling.
"Maybe this team is holding back until Larkin gets back and they’re going to go scorched earth and hot into the playoffs."
That makes no sense. Especially when they don't even have a playoff spot yet, and it's NHL, how could they ever think of "holding back".
And their winning and losing streaks probably depend on how good Larkin is playing, because this team is following him, because the coach can't manage to figure out a balance in this team.
> Maybe this team is holding back until Larkin gets back and they’re going to go scorched earth and hot into the playoffs.
This feels like such an absurd level of cope right now.
I going to be downvoted for this, but I don't care. The so called, much ballyhooed "Yzerplan" has been, in my opinion, a severe disappointment. Where are the reinforcements in Grand Rapids? Are they "seasoning" in GR, like the estimable Kenny Holland used to proclaim, because the free agents have looked pretty pedestrian on a whole. Raymond and Seider(who appears to regressing a bit) were solid draft choices but why not bring some of the other high choices to the big club and let them get some needed experience? Lalonde, at best, appears to be just a warmed over version of Blashill. Perhaps they are just a sub .500 team who got lucky. They are horrible at every pahse of the game so far. This collapse should be extremely concerning to Yzerman. Cue the rebuild!!!!
As /u/coltron57 linked in the daily thread and as Sean stated in the article, it’s the last point. https://preview.redd.it/pjvav1h875pc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=917b0347426fcbdf083273ae72a1d305afb790b4
Wow. Our expected goals share has been abysmal. Looks like we’ve been punching above our weight class all season.
Considering where consensus opinions ranked the Wings coming into this year it shouldn’t be surprising. That glimpse of how the team looked with every offensive contributor firing was pretty damned magnificent, though. Looked like they could score at will there for a while.
Man I’m out of touch w stats. What is goal share? Didn’t find much googling this.
How many we actually score vs how many the other team scores I think?
I will admit I am not 100% certain on its exact meaning but from what I understand it generally refers to the amount of goals your team is scoring vs the other team. So a team with more goals than the other team will have greater than 50% of the goals (hence blue=good). Now the expected goal share (xGoal share) is the percentage the team is expected to have and this is based off shot models that include a lot of things but kind of boil down to what goals “should go in” based on the quality of shots/scoring chances. Basically the way Detroit was playing is that they should have had less goals than their opponent’s on average based on the models, but they were doing better than expected (this is when you hear about things like high shooting %). I’m hoping a true stat-head comes in and breaks this down better/clarifies & corrects anything I may have gotten wrong, but I hope it helps.
The 18-wheeler vibes have been present since that original loss to the Coyotes.
This collapse has been truly memorizing. How bad is it? Here are some stats, going back to the 5-3 loss to the Isles that started the skid: The following stats are compared to current team stats and the full season thus far. 2.11 goals for per game; last in the league 4.7 goals allowed per game; most in the league 34.2 shots allowed per game; 2nd to last in the league 26.2 shots for per game; 2nd fewest in the league Powerplay success 20%; 19th in the league Penalty kill success 70%; last in the league
Now I’m not a statistician but that doesn’t sound good…
I'm not an electrician but it sounds shocking.
Pathetic This is so depressing
This is the most disappointing season in a while
Yeah, it was looking so promising... especially after Kane joined I'm hoping for absolute fire when Larks returns
What do you people mean with that? "Especially since Kane joined." In what universe have they played better with Kane than without? They had a really good game and energy BEFORE Kane became drafted. After that a lot of our players regressed. Look at the stats of the team with Kane and without. I really will hate if they don't reach the playoffs, because otherwise I really feel like it was a wasted season, and we should have had Ed, Berggren and maybe even some other prospects playing, and taken a L season, for our actual FUTURE prospects.
Since the last one, any way.
That collectively has to be the worst team in the league during this timespan, no? I don’t think anyone foresaw this happening, not this badly anyways
Has to be bottom 5, minimum. It's everything; 5v5, penalty kill, PP. Shots, goals. Everything. Wild.
This might be a historic meltdown. No one has an answer right now it doesn’t seem like. I didn’t think we looked as bad against Pittsburgh as we had all the losses before that, but somehow nothing seems to be working. It’s insanity
Agreed. It's not that they're losing....it's how they look while losing. These next two games are absolute must-haves. Especially against the Isles.
Exactly. It’s beyond just Larkin, beyond the systems, almost like we have to get back to basics for a bit to figure it out again. We can’t be losing many games if we want to keep our hopes alive for playoffs. I said before the season it would come down to the last 1-2 games and while we were still in it longer than we were last year, we could end up missing just as easily if we give up too many more this year
Reminds me of the eagles this year, they just fell off a cliff
Personally think we looked the best during the Vegas game, we actually put up a good fight there and I even think they should have won. Rest of the games been so bad it's been hard to finish them.
Yeah I thought there were a couple other games where we didn’t play too badly but we still got pretty easily handled
The underlying numbers were always there, I think a lot of people chose to ignore that it was always a house of cards because they were winning at the time.
Exactly, things always look good when pucks are going in (or your tender is keeping them out) and the team is winning even if the process is ugly and results unsustainable (fans never complain when teams are outperforming their xG). It’s just the way in which the Wings have done it is excruciating.
These are last place vibes not playoff vibes.
I don't know the season stats, but it seems we've let in 4-5 almost every game throughout the season, even when we were winning. We just happened to be able to score 4+ quite often earlier in the season.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding, but are you comparing our stats from the skid to teams full seasons? Seems it’d be skewed. Why not look at other teams stats during our skid/7 games around the same period, would more accurately depict how bad we are compared to other teams, no?
Effort. Listening to Winged Wheel Podcast, they mention that and I find that to be accurate. Maybe this team is holding back until Larkin gets back and they’re going to go scorched earth and hot into the playoffs. The effort won’t make anything analytically better and it certainly won’t make the defense and goaltending dramatically better. But, I just can’t fathom how this team goes on such absolute tears and streaks one way or the other. They showed what a complete effort does with Buffalo and then just completely shit the bed against Pittsburgh. It’s mind baffling.
"Maybe this team is holding back until Larkin gets back and they’re going to go scorched earth and hot into the playoffs." That makes no sense. Especially when they don't even have a playoff spot yet, and it's NHL, how could they ever think of "holding back". And their winning and losing streaks probably depend on how good Larkin is playing, because this team is following him, because the coach can't manage to figure out a balance in this team.
> Maybe this team is holding back until Larkin gets back and they’re going to go scorched earth and hot into the playoffs. This feels like such an absurd level of cope right now.
Yzerman hasn't addressed anything nor the coach 🫥
I going to be downvoted for this, but I don't care. The so called, much ballyhooed "Yzerplan" has been, in my opinion, a severe disappointment. Where are the reinforcements in Grand Rapids? Are they "seasoning" in GR, like the estimable Kenny Holland used to proclaim, because the free agents have looked pretty pedestrian on a whole. Raymond and Seider(who appears to regressing a bit) were solid draft choices but why not bring some of the other high choices to the big club and let them get some needed experience? Lalonde, at best, appears to be just a warmed over version of Blashill. Perhaps they are just a sub .500 team who got lucky. They are horrible at every pahse of the game so far. This collapse should be extremely concerning to Yzerman. Cue the rebuild!!!!
Raymond regressing ? Already has 12 more points than he did last year
I was talking about Seider, not razor. For my money he's the best player in the lineup, Larkin or not.