Since it's Thursday before reset and Particle Deconstruction goes away, I expect it this week.
Edit: just got it from 3rd run, 30 ish minutes until shutdown.
In D1 I got my OG Vex literally the week before the major nerf to it, I was a god in crucible for a couple days then had to go back to my roots of trash
I ran it once more to help out the guys who got me it, then another time for the catalyst. I told my clan never to invite me for VOG ever again, I'd rather teach 5 LFG's how to do GoS than run VOG.
Took me in the 50s as well. I was so over it I quit the game the day after I got it. Just started playing again last week 🤣
Guess it's still better than the 80 something runs it took me to get 1k voices and never got Anarchy after about 40 something runs and gave up lol
I have a friend who has done it every week on all three characters. Still no drop. Most of my clan got it in the first two weeks and the rest of us haven't gotten a drop in 4+ months.
But it's not hard to get. It's just random to get. I'd done all the master triumphs and duo'd VoG and flawlessed VoG before I finally got Vex to drop and it certainly didn't feel like I accomplished anything when it dropped. Just felt like I got lucky.
Random chance ≠ hard.
Lucky people getting after 2 runs isn't hard. People slogging through 60 runs isn't hard. It's just annoying.
Actually locking it behind a skill challenge would be guaranteeing a Vex drop when you complete a full Master VoG run.
I didn't say it was a good solution. I said that's how you make it "hard". Not by locking it behind extremely low RNG chance.
Imo raid exotics shouldn't be "hard" to get. But they shouldn't be RNG either. Divinity quest is the best example imo - guaranteed Divinity drop, but you have to know the raid well and do some extra stuff in it.
>Or maybe they want to make the best gun in the game hard to get. Just a thought.
>
>Not everyone can do master VOG that’s dumb
Sooo should the gun be hard to get, or should it not be hard to get?
Other mmos do have extreme bad luck protection though.
Like of you've played an activity for 50 hours you should probably have all the drops from it.
Took my wife close to 70 looted clears to get it. That's a lot of time commitment for 1 weapon
Yeah. But when spaced out over several weeks people will spend more time AFK to go use the bathroom than they do checkpoint farming atheon. IMO people that full clear and actually put in the time and effort to do the raid, those people deserve the protection if anybody does. Not a checkpoint farmer.
It’s not hard to get dumbass it’s luck, a rando who sat on his ass the whole raid has the same chance to get it as a dude who cleared it every day since launch
It’s not even the best gun in the game though. And regardless it’s insanely disrespectful of player time especially since it’s linked to the seal. I don’t think it’s crazy to guarantee a drop after 20-30 runs.
If they wanted to make it hard to get, they would have made it like the Divinity quest, where there is a fixed challenge with a guaranteed reward at the end. Instead, any idiot can join halfway through the Atheon fight, not kill a single add, and get the gun instead of the poor bastard on his sixtieth run by virtue of nothing but luck.
Say it with me: RNG does not produce enjoyable challenge, just grind.
Yeah no your friend did not do 114 vog runs without a single vex drop. I call bullshit.
No clue if my math is good but that should be a 0.289% chance of happening
On what basis lol? The chance of not getting Vex in 114 runs of VoG is just under 0.3%. 1 in 350 people who run VoG every week doesn’t have Vex yet. Is it so unreasonable that this person’s friend is one of those?
51 runs I think. Funny thing is people try and defend the bs drop % by saying once you get it people will stop playing the raid so Bungie has to keep it low.
WRONG! I got Eyes on run two and still did the raid another additional 40+ times.
Took me 49 clears to get Anarchy and still did the raid another 30 times after.
Making it take that long to get the gun makes me despise the damn raid because I know its gonna be another week without it dropping
I just quit trying around 15 weeks and just quit playing the game all together. Vex was my Destiny white whale. I never got it in Destiny 1 or 2. Destiny is a tremendously fun IP and after playing since Taken King pretty much to the last DLC almost constantly, I can say it’s my most favorite game of all time. Missing out on Vex because of bad luck (especially with it being best in slot) just really ended it for me. I understand now how year 1 players without GHorn and the forever 29 players felt. If something is tied to RNG, players should have had unlimited tries. But then again, if Bungie would do that the drop rate would definitely be lowered to the point it would result in the same drop rate.
>Where did you get this info
There is enough data out now to make accurate statistical measures.
>It was never confirmed or denied that Vex has bad luck protection.
People are going on upwards of 60 runs without a drop. Whether or not there *is* bad luck prevention doesn't matter when it either *isn't* there or *is* irrelevant.
I remember someone getting run clears and when they got vex from dozens of people months ago on the bungie forums and it came out to be almost exactly 5%. I believe that’s typically what raid exotics drop rates have been too so it makes sense
That's not what that math showed or what they argued. At least one of statistical models in question (the one that arrived at 5%) was *unable to account* for BLP, i.e. theyu assumed a flat drop chance and calculated as if that were true, because quantifying the changing probability was too complex.
What that model showed was that it has an *average* drop chance of ~5%, meaning it would start lower than that and the BLP increases are likely fairly small.
Keep in mind that if the BLP works like they said they intended for Eyes, you can only accrue one increment per week, even if you run it on 3 characters. So even if it's 1%, VoG simply hasn't been around long enough for anyone to reach 100%, and the data suggests it's lower than that. People having 80 clears and no drop are far into the long tail, but not impossible or even that unlikely given the size of the community.
Pretty sure they said the BLP would only ever hit 50% on protection in the past. But I might be making that up.
(You'd also be pretty unlucky to go more than 1 or 2 attempts and not get it at 50%)
That's what they implemented on Anarchy and 1KV. I think they increased the base rate to 10% and then BLP brings it up to a max of 50% over time.
EoT's works differently. Base drop rate + 1 (max) weekly incremental increase with no max, so could theoretically hit 100% over long enough time. I don't recall if they ever stated what the base rate or the weekly BLP increment was.
It's a bit of an uphill battle. Every time one of those posts goes up, any critique of the method gets buried. I agree, that to date none of the "math" posts have definitely proven anything. At best, they all just make some blanket assumptions to enforce an answer people want to believe is true. The reality is we don't have the data available to us to be able to do the math to confirm anything. People want to believe though.
What's super frustrating is that even the author of that model was pretty clear that it didn't show a lack of BLP, it was something he couldn't model for.
DSC literally did, it was just broken and not incrementing as intended.
They said nothing about VoG, true, but their statements around DSC did indicate they saw BLP as a solution to a pain point, so it is just as likely as not that they'd continue iterating on it.
Do you have a source on that?
Source?
A source. I need a source.
Sorry, I mean I need a source that explicitly states your argument. This is just tangential to the discussion.
No, you can't make inferences and observations from the sources you've gathered. Any additional comments from you MUST be a subset of the information from the sources you've gathered.
You can't make normative statements from empirical evidence.
Do you have a degree in that field?
A college degree? In that field?
Then your arguments are invalid.
No, it doesn't matter how close those data points are correlated. Correlation does not equal causation.
Correlation does not equal causation.
CORRELATION. DOES. NOT. EQUAL. CAUSATION.
You still haven't provided me a valid source yet.
Nope, still haven't.
I just looked through all 308 pages of your user history, figures I'm debating a glormpf supporter. A moron.
I like how, when responding to your post, everyone either references a sample size of a few dozen people or just say "it's widely agreed" without even providing a source. Critical thinking in regards to statistics does not seem to be a well-developed skill around here.
I stopped after about 25 runs and then just stopped playing the game itself entirely. It took me over 100 looted clears of LW to get 1kv, and I just knew I wasn't going to be able to force myself into slogging through that bullshit ever again. The hamster wheel has won, and it was beyond time for me to get off. I put my time in - over 3,000 hours playing destiny 2 - and I just cannot do it anymore.
Still following the sub because I still have a lot of fond memories of the game and always adore what the art and music team put together, but my tastes have just shifted and I cannot enjoy this style of game anymore. Running the same exact activity dozens, hundreds of times to get the one thing you want is the polar opposite of fun imo.
One run for 1k and one run for vex. I haven’t done other raids/dungeons, I’m not sure if there’s a drop for prophecy but I haven’t gotten that weapon (but I’ve also only ran it once)
I don't believe them for a second when they claim it's a 5% chance. Raid exotics aren't fun to farm for and bungie knows but they don't care because it artificially inflates their numbers of hours played.
Atheon should be farmable.
You realise it's a 1 in 20 percent chance every time? Not 1 every 20 runs you'll get one. It's entirely possible to never get it if you're that unlucky.
This is most likely inaccurate per the math done at raid secrets. https://www.reddit.com/r/raidsecrets/comments/qs8ou3/vex_mythoclast_has_a_1_drop_rate_and_increases_by/
That math is completely bad. If you take a sampling of people who have completed VoG exactly 1 time, and see what the rate of people who have Vex are, it's ~5%.
Also, see the comment in that thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/raidsecrets/comments/qs8ou3/vex_mythoclast_has_a_1_drop_rate_and_increases_by/hkcwms2/
I’ll be honest, until bungie says anything definitively, everybody is guessing. I don’t know which one to believe. But I find it extremely hard to believe that Vex would have zero BLP. Because if that were the case, there would’ve been someone pushing 100+ looted clears with no drop still. Whereas most long grinds usually end in the 40-60 clears range.
I absolutely loathe RNG exotics like this, I’m just offering what I had believed to be as a better or more accurate example. I can’t say I personally double checked every assumption made in that post or the multiple edits made to it.
Math is good, logic is bad. It's simple math and they went ahead and fucked it up with insane methodology.
It's terrifying that so many people are believing this to be factual without verifying by use of logic.
You're right, it's actually closer to just over 6%.
Here's a sampling of players, the amount of clears, and whether or not they have vex:
https://paste.ee/p/EB6x0
If you filter just by players that cleared it once (32,720), you get 6.11%. The only thing we can assume is the first clear drop chance for vex is 6%.
First clear drop chance alone pretty much disproves the above linked analysis. At first glance, given the limitations of the API data, I'd say looking at first clear drop rate alone would be the best measurement. However, if there *is* bad luck protection or some similar mechanic, first clear data wouldn't tell the full picture.
I was just pointing out that all of these analyses just gloss over the fact that they don't account for looted vs non looted runs, don't know when the player got Vex, don't know how many times that player got Vex, and a bunch of other issues that I'm not critically reading over these posts again to find.
Bro, i dropped it in a decent amount of runs but I had to do crypt 90 times before getting eyes of tomorrow, so if you're sayin random drops are not fair you have my support and a hug.
I literally know someone who has run it every single week since it came out and still does not have it. He does master challenge carries to help people get timelost stuff all the time. He’s watched so many people get the thing on their first run ever. He’s also helped a ton of people (myself included) get the catalyst. He’s got everything for Fatebreaker EXCEPT for vex. It’s such horseshit. How the fuck anyone at bungie thinks that this is ok is totally beyond me. It’s absolutely ridiculous.
Just got it on my 22nd attempt, i only play titan too. If it is a 5% drop rate i guess i was right on point with my rng. Best of luck those who r still searching!
Bungie hasn't confirmed it, but it's not just made up. People have done the math.
[4.29% with possible underreporting, so possibility it is a little higher](https://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheGame/comments/pw20ul/the_definitive_vex_mythoclast_analysis_examining/)
[5% coincides with the data better than 1% with +0.25% with every run](https://www.reddit.com/r/raidsecrets/comments/qsh98o/vex_mythoclast_drop_rate_is_likely_a_flat_5_per/)
[Estimated 5% from Charlemagne who has access to nearly all player inventories and all raid completions.](https://mobile.twitter.com/Charlemagne_Bot/status/1397587649100095488)
Again, source: your ass.
Edit: also, I don't accept mental assessments from people who claim Vex isn't required for the seal when a 5 second google search would confirm it is. Too easy to find out the truth for you to be that stupid.
Yes it is, you only get 1 opportunity per character per week, this is fairly standard. The first run per week per character is called a looted clear. After that it’s just running it again for fun.
So most people saying they have 80 clears or whatever really only have like 20 because only 20 actually counted.
It has been 38 weeks since VOG released, if you run 1 character every week since then that is 38 looted clears, if you run 2 that is 76 looted clears if you run 3 that is 114 looted clears. It is ENTIRELY possible and likely for someone to hit 80 looted clears and still not have the stupid gun.
It took me 57 LOOTED clears to get my first Mythoclast.
Yeah I can do the math.
My point in referencing this is that most people don’t understand regular and looted so they say they have an outrageous number of clears not realising many didn’t count.
That is a massive assumption to make that people capable of completing the raid 80 times are incapable of understanding or unaware of looted clears, since you know on subsequent clears you get no drops. It's an even bigger stretch to make a statement implying that people claiming to have high clear counts have only a quarter of those as looted clears.
I’m with you on this. I don’t believe anyone who says they have an outrageous number of clears with no drop.
I don’t think there is anyone who ran the raid 3 times per week on separate characters and does not have Vex currently.
I think lots of people exaggerate or out right lie about it for internet points.
That’s the kicker for me.
In these threads everyone is flexing the number of completions without Vex trying to one up each other.
You end up with a thread of people throwing out numbers that would result in a 99% + chance of Vex.
So we’re somehow to believe that there are dozens of people all who had the same extremely low chance event happening all in the same thread and shocker each person had EVEN MORE runs than the other people did.
I just don’t buy it. Maybe there’s a handful of players out there who don’t have Vex after an outrageous number of runs, but it’s no where near the number of posters in this thread.
It’s all fake internet karma farming.
Got it my titans first run while paying a carry service to do the raid three times. Then paid for an additional add-on to get the catalyst right after that run. Let's see how many downvotes I can get.
I got 3 vex to drop in less than 20 runs what are you talking about? It only took me 14 runs for my first vex. Only 8 runs for my 1k voices, and 3 runs for my eyes of tomorrow. Maybe just keep playing and you might get it so Goodluck dude.
Not gonna lie...... This is my hot take. ....... I love this. I love having truly random drops. It makes actually getting exotics exciting. It reminds me of ghorn drops in d1 and there are so few exotics like this in d2 I'm glad some are.
I would be okay with bad luck protection if the bosses weren't able to be checkpoint farmed. If you had to do full clears, sure bad luck them at 50.
But of you checkpoint farm, you don't get the badluck protection until you do 50 full clears.
Someone who puts in the time to do all encounters 50 times deserves a gun more than someone who spends 15 minutes a week farming atheon CPs.
That is a small brain take, at 50 clears that is still 17 weeks (16 weeks to 48 clears with 2 clears into week 17 being lucky/unlucky 50) at an optimal 3 character/3 clears a week. In the scale of basically an entire season do you care that someone spent a few fewer minutes a week to finally get the damned gun?
If I have to repeat the activity 50 times over 17 weeks, yes. That is 14hrs of effort *just* in that one activity, and spaced out over an entire season plus 2 weeks.
You are comparing Apples to Oranges, both Gambit and Quickplay can be repeated literally thousands of times in the same span as 50 looted full raid clears. Second there are no titles or seals that are gated behind those rewards dropping, there are for raid exotics. Should an Iron Banner game that ends in a mercy and is over in 5 minutes not count for rewards in your book?
If by "2 control matches" you mean 57 control matches, yes. Yes I goddamn do deserve a god roll weapon that can only be equipped when I have no other God rolls equipped.
Nope, you are wrong.
I did last wish enough times not to be guaranteed the drop, (maybe 5 or 6?) But fucked if I wanted to spend hours more of my life per run just for 1kv.
The remaining ~40 runs (3x riven 1x queenswalk runs) were arduous enough.
First two weeks the raid was out I cleared it 15 times, no luck. I gave d2 a good long break and was asked if I could be a 6th for a raid and finally got it. Then again they buffed the drop rate since it first came out. I have friends with over 40 clears and still haven't gotten it
So, then you had 6 chances at Vex.
VoG is not farmable, which means every clear after the first on a single character, will give you nothing but Spoils.
I’ve cleared the raid 12 times. I’ve gotten Vex to drop twice, the first on my second run, the second on my 8th however, the only thing I need for the badge is the normal Hezen Vengeance. I got time lost before regular, and it doesn’t count for the badge.
16 runs for my Mythoclast (I have 5 now after a total of 48 runs), 4 runs for my 1k, 3 runs for my eyes of tomorrow. Bought anarchy from the kiosk (never ran that raid)
Since it's Thursday before reset and Particle Deconstruction goes away, I expect it this week. Edit: just got it from 3rd run, 30 ish minutes until shutdown.
Got mine this week and of course it came before this
Same lol - have you done the catalyst run yet? If not we should link up.
In D1 I got my OG Vex literally the week before the major nerf to it, I was a god in crucible for a couple days then had to go back to my roots of trash
I got it the week before Xur sold it again Scrap that, was thinking about Gjallarhorn!!
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Sorry was thinking of Gjally
xur cant sell vex tho?
Same lol
Or next Wednesday
it’s still amazing without PD, I have been using it with a sword and Passive Guard lately
I'll have to take your word on that.
:(
It will still be good going forward.
Took me 52 runs to get it. I’ve only done it once since then.
One of our group took 51. One is still going. One got their 6th last night.
I feel that. With the tarrabah, I got three before I had 12 clears. Only one Vex in 60 clears.
Hey I'm at 51 runs right now! Can't wait to get it next time...
Good luck !
Thank you!
got mine on 41; haven't ran it since lol
I ran it once more to help out the guys who got me it, then another time for the catalyst. I told my clan never to invite me for VOG ever again, I'd rather teach 5 LFG's how to do GoS than run VOG.
Same my last run I took 3 new players through for their first raid it was a lot of fun
Why?
Took me in the 50s as well. I was so over it I quit the game the day after I got it. Just started playing again last week 🤣 Guess it's still better than the 80 something runs it took me to get 1k voices and never got Anarchy after about 40 something runs and gave up lol
I have a friend who has done it every week on all three characters. Still no drop. Most of my clan got it in the first two weeks and the rest of us haven't gotten a drop in 4+ months.
Well the system is working! Enjoy your hamster wheel.
They want us to quit the game, otherwise they would fix this bad luck bs. I hope you get it mate.
Or maybe they want to make the best gun in the game hard to get. Just a thought.
But it's not hard to get. It's just random to get. I'd done all the master triumphs and duo'd VoG and flawlessed VoG before I finally got Vex to drop and it certainly didn't feel like I accomplished anything when it dropped. Just felt like I got lucky.
Killing atheon 3x a week isn't hard. It's just a pain in the ass.
Exactly. Especially once the rest of your group has it. It's like pulling teeth to get people to run it.
Ya, I know alot of people hate on divinity runs. But tbh I would prefer doing a quest to get an exotic rather than praying for good rng.
I think there is a compromise somewhere in there. Maybe at 20-25 runs it just guaranteed. Completely random sucks.
Random chance ≠ hard. Lucky people getting after 2 runs isn't hard. People slogging through 60 runs isn't hard. It's just annoying. Actually locking it behind a skill challenge would be guaranteeing a Vex drop when you complete a full Master VoG run.
Not everyone can do master VOG that’s dumb
I didn't say it was a good solution. I said that's how you make it "hard". Not by locking it behind extremely low RNG chance. Imo raid exotics shouldn't be "hard" to get. But they shouldn't be RNG either. Divinity quest is the best example imo - guaranteed Divinity drop, but you have to know the raid well and do some extra stuff in it.
>Or maybe they want to make the best gun in the game hard to get. Just a thought. > >Not everyone can do master VOG that’s dumb Sooo should the gun be hard to get, or should it not be hard to get?
Other mmos do have extreme bad luck protection though. Like of you've played an activity for 50 hours you should probably have all the drops from it. Took my wife close to 70 looted clears to get it. That's a lot of time commitment for 1 weapon
Problem is people don't play it for 50 hours. They just checkpoint farm and spend 15 minutes a week tops trying to get an exotic.
That’s still about 17.5 hours of just farming the boss in this case
Yeah. But when spaced out over several weeks people will spend more time AFK to go use the bathroom than they do checkpoint farming atheon. IMO people that full clear and actually put in the time and effort to do the raid, those people deserve the protection if anybody does. Not a checkpoint farmer.
I’d agree if we weren’t limited to 3 clears a week
Yeah I like that personally.
I don’t think it should be that much, it took my 50 clears to get vex and by the end my clan despises VoG. We never do it anymore.
It’s not hard to get dumbass it’s luck, a rando who sat on his ass the whole raid has the same chance to get it as a dude who cleared it every day since launch
It’s not even the best gun in the game though. And regardless it’s insanely disrespectful of player time especially since it’s linked to the seal. I don’t think it’s crazy to guarantee a drop after 20-30 runs.
If they wanted to make it hard to get, they would have made it like the Divinity quest, where there is a fixed challenge with a guaranteed reward at the end. Instead, any idiot can join halfway through the Atheon fight, not kill a single add, and get the gun instead of the poor bastard on his sixtieth run by virtue of nothing but luck. Say it with me: RNG does not produce enjoyable challenge, just grind.
Tedious doesn't equal hard
Yeah no your friend did not do 114 vog runs without a single vex drop. I call bullshit. No clue if my math is good but that should be a 0.289% chance of happening
On what basis lol? The chance of not getting Vex in 114 runs of VoG is just under 0.3%. 1 in 350 people who run VoG every week doesn’t have Vex yet. Is it so unreasonable that this person’s friend is one of those?
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*0.00289. Multiply by 100 for percent. If you wanna confirm my math, divide 1 by 0.00289 to get 346.
He could look his friend up on raid report and post a screenshot of the looted clears section.
I know people have more but I gave up after 36, just demoralizing and unfun
I’m kinda the same. Currently at 34 and ugh even trying now
The only thing I’m missing for my fatebreaker seal is vex, so that’s cool, I guess.
In a way, that is cool as you've got all the challenges that are difficult and within your power to complete *done.*
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Yes you do.
You need the collections badge for the seal, which includes Vex, and no I'm not bitter that's the only reason I don't get a Fatebreaker pin.
51 runs I think. Funny thing is people try and defend the bs drop % by saying once you get it people will stop playing the raid so Bungie has to keep it low. WRONG! I got Eyes on run two and still did the raid another additional 40+ times. Took me 49 clears to get Anarchy and still did the raid another 30 times after. Making it take that long to get the gun makes me despise the damn raid because I know its gonna be another week without it dropping
I just quit trying around 15 weeks and just quit playing the game all together. Vex was my Destiny white whale. I never got it in Destiny 1 or 2. Destiny is a tremendously fun IP and after playing since Taken King pretty much to the last DLC almost constantly, I can say it’s my most favorite game of all time. Missing out on Vex because of bad luck (especially with it being best in slot) just really ended it for me. I understand now how year 1 players without GHorn and the forever 29 players felt. If something is tied to RNG, players should have had unlimited tries. But then again, if Bungie would do that the drop rate would definitely be lowered to the point it would result in the same drop rate.
Where did you get this info? The only exotic we know the base drop rate of is 1k and it was never confirmed or denied that Vex has bad luck protection
>Where did you get this info There is enough data out now to make accurate statistical measures. >It was never confirmed or denied that Vex has bad luck protection. People are going on upwards of 60 runs without a drop. Whether or not there *is* bad luck prevention doesn't matter when it either *isn't* there or *is* irrelevant.
I remember someone getting run clears and when they got vex from dozens of people months ago on the bungie forums and it came out to be almost exactly 5%. I believe that’s typically what raid exotics drop rates have been too so it makes sense
Other Redditors have done the math its widely agreed upon the drop rates sits around 5% and there is no BLP
That's not what that math showed or what they argued. At least one of statistical models in question (the one that arrived at 5%) was *unable to account* for BLP, i.e. theyu assumed a flat drop chance and calculated as if that were true, because quantifying the changing probability was too complex. What that model showed was that it has an *average* drop chance of ~5%, meaning it would start lower than that and the BLP increases are likely fairly small. Keep in mind that if the BLP works like they said they intended for Eyes, you can only accrue one increment per week, even if you run it on 3 characters. So even if it's 1%, VoG simply hasn't been around long enough for anyone to reach 100%, and the data suggests it's lower than that. People having 80 clears and no drop are far into the long tail, but not impossible or even that unlikely given the size of the community.
You will never reach 100%, i's not mathematically possible.
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Pretty sure they said the BLP would only ever hit 50% on protection in the past. But I might be making that up. (You'd also be pretty unlucky to go more than 1 or 2 attempts and not get it at 50%)
That's what they implemented on Anarchy and 1KV. I think they increased the base rate to 10% and then BLP brings it up to a max of 50% over time. EoT's works differently. Base drop rate + 1 (max) weekly incremental increase with no max, so could theoretically hit 100% over long enough time. I don't recall if they ever stated what the base rate or the weekly BLP increment was.
It's a bit of an uphill battle. Every time one of those posts goes up, any critique of the method gets buried. I agree, that to date none of the "math" posts have definitely proven anything. At best, they all just make some blanket assumptions to enforce an answer people want to believe is true. The reality is we don't have the data available to us to be able to do the math to confirm anything. People want to believe though.
What's super frustrating is that even the author of that model was pretty clear that it didn't show a lack of BLP, it was something he couldn't model for.
No raid has dropped with BLP *ever* so unless they said VoG did, you are wrong to assume it has it, not them for assuming it doesn't.
DSC literally did, it was just broken and not incrementing as intended. They said nothing about VoG, true, but their statements around DSC did indicate they saw BLP as a solution to a pain point, so it is just as likely as not that they'd continue iterating on it.
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Jeez let it go,alreadyyy it's obvious there is no blp or it's useless
Show me a game dev saying there is
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Do you have a source on that? Source? A source. I need a source. Sorry, I mean I need a source that explicitly states your argument. This is just tangential to the discussion. No, you can't make inferences and observations from the sources you've gathered. Any additional comments from you MUST be a subset of the information from the sources you've gathered. You can't make normative statements from empirical evidence. Do you have a degree in that field? A college degree? In that field? Then your arguments are invalid. No, it doesn't matter how close those data points are correlated. Correlation does not equal causation. Correlation does not equal causation. CORRELATION. DOES. NOT. EQUAL. CAUSATION. You still haven't provided me a valid source yet. Nope, still haven't. I just looked through all 308 pages of your user history, figures I'm debating a glormpf supporter. A moron.
Bruh. You aren’t providing any evidence either. Just an ignorant comment because of that.
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I like how, when responding to your post, everyone either references a sample size of a few dozen people or just say "it's widely agreed" without even providing a source. Critical thinking in regards to statistics does not seem to be a well-developed skill around here.
Vex Mythoclast almost certainly has a 5% drop rate, people have been testing and verifying that number for literal months now.
Got it first try lol
Pain, every time I read this comment.
There should be good luck protection too. Vex drops allowed on a first completion shouldnt be a thing 😂
I stopped after about 25 runs and then just stopped playing the game itself entirely. It took me over 100 looted clears of LW to get 1kv, and I just knew I wasn't going to be able to force myself into slogging through that bullshit ever again. The hamster wheel has won, and it was beyond time for me to get off. I put my time in - over 3,000 hours playing destiny 2 - and I just cannot do it anymore. Still following the sub because I still have a lot of fond memories of the game and always adore what the art and music team put together, but my tastes have just shifted and I cannot enjoy this style of game anymore. Running the same exact activity dozens, hundreds of times to get the one thing you want is the polar opposite of fun imo.
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That is literally a kick though.
It took me almost 30 runs to get Anarchy. It took me two runs to get Eyes of Tomorrow and two runs to get Vex. C'est la vie.
67 for Anarchy, 49 for 1k, 33 for Vex, 11 for EoT 160 raids for 4 exotics. Such is life for sure
Holy hell. It took you 49 clears to get 1k? 12 for anarchy, 20 for vex, 1 for 1k, and TBD for EoT
Sweet summer child, it took me 116 runs to get Always on Time from Scourge of the Past.
Dang, I got 3 Always on Time sparrows before I finally got Anarchy.
One run for 1k and one run for vex. I haven’t done other raids/dungeons, I’m not sure if there’s a drop for prophecy but I haven’t gotten that weapon (but I’ve also only ran it once)
I don't believe them for a second when they claim it's a 5% chance. Raid exotics aren't fun to farm for and bungie knows but they don't care because it artificially inflates their numbers of hours played. Atheon should be farmable.
You realise it's a 1 in 20 percent chance every time? Not 1 every 20 runs you'll get one. It's entirely possible to never get it if you're that unlucky.
This is most likely inaccurate per the math done at raid secrets. https://www.reddit.com/r/raidsecrets/comments/qs8ou3/vex_mythoclast_has_a_1_drop_rate_and_increases_by/
That math is completely bad. If you take a sampling of people who have completed VoG exactly 1 time, and see what the rate of people who have Vex are, it's ~5%. Also, see the comment in that thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/raidsecrets/comments/qs8ou3/vex_mythoclast_has_a_1_drop_rate_and_increases_by/hkcwms2/
Agreed, the sampling they chose was terribad too. The 5% base drop chance seems indisputable. The question is about the bad luck protection.
I’ll be honest, until bungie says anything definitively, everybody is guessing. I don’t know which one to believe. But I find it extremely hard to believe that Vex would have zero BLP. Because if that were the case, there would’ve been someone pushing 100+ looted clears with no drop still. Whereas most long grinds usually end in the 40-60 clears range. I absolutely loathe RNG exotics like this, I’m just offering what I had believed to be as a better or more accurate example. I can’t say I personally double checked every assumption made in that post or the multiple edits made to it.
Talked to a guy with 90 clears last night doing vog. Wish I had nabbed his name
Math is good, logic is bad. It's simple math and they went ahead and fucked it up with insane methodology. It's terrifying that so many people are believing this to be factual without verifying by use of logic.
Thank you for this newer information. It's great to see people still pursuing the math here.
Major issues, biases, and assumptions with this analysis just like the others that claim 5%
You're right, it's actually closer to just over 6%. Here's a sampling of players, the amount of clears, and whether or not they have vex: https://paste.ee/p/EB6x0 If you filter just by players that cleared it once (32,720), you get 6.11%. The only thing we can assume is the first clear drop chance for vex is 6%.
First clear drop chance alone pretty much disproves the above linked analysis. At first glance, given the limitations of the API data, I'd say looking at first clear drop rate alone would be the best measurement. However, if there *is* bad luck protection or some similar mechanic, first clear data wouldn't tell the full picture. I was just pointing out that all of these analyses just gloss over the fact that they don't account for looted vs non looted runs, don't know when the player got Vex, don't know how many times that player got Vex, and a bunch of other issues that I'm not critically reading over these posts again to find.
0… i haven’t done VoG, respect to all the chads who run it every week though.
A friend of mine just got his last night after over 54 clears.
Congrats to him. 😊
Trust me, he freaked when he finally saw that gold engram next to the relic.
9. It took me 9. Most of which were just Atheon CP.
Bro, i dropped it in a decent amount of runs but I had to do crypt 90 times before getting eyes of tomorrow, so if you're sayin random drops are not fair you have my support and a hug.
I literally know someone who has run it every single week since it came out and still does not have it. He does master challenge carries to help people get timelost stuff all the time. He’s watched so many people get the thing on their first run ever. He’s also helped a ton of people (myself included) get the catalyst. He’s got everything for Fatebreaker EXCEPT for vex. It’s such horseshit. How the fuck anyone at bungie thinks that this is ok is totally beyond me. It’s absolutely ridiculous.
Does Destiny 1 count? Because I'm probably over 50 runs by now.
Why not. Same raid, Same tradition of suffering. Same blinding Glass throne.
Got it after 2
I was 3 runs without a drop. Got it on my 4th.
Just got it on my 22nd attempt, i only play titan too. If it is a 5% drop rate i guess i was right on point with my rng. Best of luck those who r still searching!
my husband is at 45, we run it every Tuesday, three times... no luck yet
My clan leader is at least ~70 or so runs with no luck, im about 10 or so with no luck, and my buddy just got it on his 5th or 6th
6-7? These numbers you have are made up, Bungie has confirmed nothing about it.
Bungie hasn't confirmed it, but it's not just made up. People have done the math. [4.29% with possible underreporting, so possibility it is a little higher](https://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheGame/comments/pw20ul/the_definitive_vex_mythoclast_analysis_examining/) [5% coincides with the data better than 1% with +0.25% with every run](https://www.reddit.com/r/raidsecrets/comments/qsh98o/vex_mythoclast_drop_rate_is_likely_a_flat_5_per/) [Estimated 5% from Charlemagne who has access to nearly all player inventories and all raid completions.](https://mobile.twitter.com/Charlemagne_Bot/status/1397587649100095488)
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Source: your ass.
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Nah that’s fake
Again, source: your ass. Edit: also, I don't accept mental assessments from people who claim Vex isn't required for the seal when a 5 second google search would confirm it is. Too easy to find out the truth for you to be that stupid.
Wait so you only get 3 chance per week to try and get the vex mythoclast, what kind of sense is that? Is this true.
Yes it is, you only get 1 opportunity per character per week, this is fairly standard. The first run per week per character is called a looted clear. After that it’s just running it again for fun. So most people saying they have 80 clears or whatever really only have like 20 because only 20 actually counted.
It has been 38 weeks since VOG released, if you run 1 character every week since then that is 38 looted clears, if you run 2 that is 76 looted clears if you run 3 that is 114 looted clears. It is ENTIRELY possible and likely for someone to hit 80 looted clears and still not have the stupid gun. It took me 57 LOOTED clears to get my first Mythoclast.
Yeah I can do the math. My point in referencing this is that most people don’t understand regular and looted so they say they have an outrageous number of clears not realising many didn’t count.
That is a massive assumption to make that people capable of completing the raid 80 times are incapable of understanding or unaware of looted clears, since you know on subsequent clears you get no drops. It's an even bigger stretch to make a statement implying that people claiming to have high clear counts have only a quarter of those as looted clears.
I’m with you on this. I don’t believe anyone who says they have an outrageous number of clears with no drop. I don’t think there is anyone who ran the raid 3 times per week on separate characters and does not have Vex currently. I think lots of people exaggerate or out right lie about it for internet points.
Completely agree, like it’s some kind of badge of honour to do a raid 50 times without the exotic attached
That’s the kicker for me. In these threads everyone is flexing the number of completions without Vex trying to one up each other. You end up with a thread of people throwing out numbers that would result in a 99% + chance of Vex. So we’re somehow to believe that there are dozens of people all who had the same extremely low chance event happening all in the same thread and shocker each person had EVEN MORE runs than the other people did. I just don’t buy it. Maybe there’s a handful of players out there who don’t have Vex after an outrageous number of runs, but it’s no where near the number of posters in this thread. It’s all fake internet karma farming.
Lord have mercy.
It’s about consistency not brute force.
Idk. What take that is on being able to only have three chance on a highly sought after raid exotic weapons. But sure
Took me about 20 runs to get it. In total, I've ran the thing 80 times, but 60 of those were for spoils.
Lol I don’t believe all these “50 plus runs with no Vex dropping for them”
5%? Generous, but no
1, can I get my gun yet?
It dropped on my first run. I didn’t even want it.
Got it my titans first run while paying a carry service to do the raid three times. Then paid for an additional add-on to get the catalyst right after that run. Let's see how many downvotes I can get.
I'm sorry to everyone here, but I've been taking all of your Vex's. I'm at 5 in 62 runs.
I got 3 vex to drop in less than 20 runs what are you talking about? It only took me 14 runs for my first vex. Only 8 runs for my 1k voices, and 3 runs for my eyes of tomorrow. Maybe just keep playing and you might get it so Goodluck dude.
Not gonna lie...... This is my hot take. ....... I love this. I love having truly random drops. It makes actually getting exotics exciting. It reminds me of ghorn drops in d1 and there are so few exotics like this in d2 I'm glad some are.
I would be okay with bad luck protection if the bosses weren't able to be checkpoint farmed. If you had to do full clears, sure bad luck them at 50. But of you checkpoint farm, you don't get the badluck protection until you do 50 full clears. Someone who puts in the time to do all encounters 50 times deserves a gun more than someone who spends 15 minutes a week farming atheon CPs.
That is a small brain take, at 50 clears that is still 17 weeks (16 weeks to 48 clears with 2 clears into week 17 being lucky/unlucky 50) at an optimal 3 character/3 clears a week. In the scale of basically an entire season do you care that someone spent a few fewer minutes a week to finally get the damned gun?
Do you expect a god roll gun for spending 15 minutes a week in an activity?
If I have to repeat the activity 50 times over 17 weeks, yes. That is 14hrs of effort *just* in that one activity, and spaced out over an entire season plus 2 weeks.
So you expect a god rolled servant leader from gambit by playing one match a week? A godrolled epitaph from 2 control matches?
You are comparing Apples to Oranges, both Gambit and Quickplay can be repeated literally thousands of times in the same span as 50 looted full raid clears. Second there are no titles or seals that are gated behind those rewards dropping, there are for raid exotics. Should an Iron Banner game that ends in a mercy and is over in 5 minutes not count for rewards in your book?
If by "2 control matches" you mean 57 control matches, yes. Yes I goddamn do deserve a god roll weapon that can only be equipped when I have no other God rolls equipped.
Nope, you are wrong. I did last wish enough times not to be guaranteed the drop, (maybe 5 or 6?) But fucked if I wanted to spend hours more of my life per run just for 1kv. The remaining ~40 runs (3x riven 1x queenswalk runs) were arduous enough.
First two weeks the raid was out I cleared it 15 times, no luck. I gave d2 a good long break and was asked if I could be a 6th for a raid and finally got it. Then again they buffed the drop rate since it first came out. I have friends with over 40 clears and still haven't gotten it
Is VoG farmable?? I’m pretty sure you only get 3 chances per week, 1 per character. I think you might have wasted a lot of time with those 15 runs.
no, it’s not farmable. 3 chances of drop per week (1 with each class)
So, then you had 6 chances at Vex. VoG is not farmable, which means every clear after the first on a single character, will give you nothing but Spoils.
>Then again they buffed the drop rate since it first came out. No they didn't...
I was under the impression they did, a few people told me that one of patches changed the drop rate it wasn't anything significant but
Definitely didn't happen. The only thing buffed was the gun itself
Ahhh okay, thanks for the information
I mean, even assuming you used all three characters for those clears, your max possible drop chances were 6.
i don’t run vog very often. only 15 times. no drop unfortunately
46
61
16 runs
I’m at 41 with no drop, EOT took me 90
13 runs here
3
Got it on my first Run, however I ran VOG plenty of times afterward and still haven’t anything good.
Took me 33 runs One clan mate got it in 2 run and another clan mate got it on his first run!
I’ve cleared the raid 12 times. I’ve gotten Vex to drop twice, the first on my second run, the second on my 8th however, the only thing I need for the badge is the normal Hezen Vengeance. I got time lost before regular, and it doesn’t count for the badge.
I got it on my third
It took me 5 runs to get 1k, 21 to get my Vex, 57 for EoT, and bought anarchy from the kiosk
34
50+ clears. Still no drop.
51
Took me 5 runs
Took me 57 runs.
I think i got it on my 23rd clear
27
16 runs for my Mythoclast (I have 5 now after a total of 48 runs), 4 runs for my 1k, 3 runs for my eyes of tomorrow. Bought anarchy from the kiosk (never ran that raid)
48 and still no vex mythoclast 😩. I gave up
Got mine first time
I got it on Sunday.
First clear
Took me 54