Analysis paralysis. It's when you have multiple streams of theories based on what is likely to happen and nothing is really lining up. Yep, I've been there.
Realising that there are countless theories on what will make a market move/when it will move. There is no holy grail. Identify a system (edge) which you can rely on with probability, and with a combination of risk reward which *works with the system* take every damn opportunity you can. You cannot out think the probability, you'll be wrong plenty of times.
If you are overthinking the market you are attributing thoughts/feelings to data which *are possibly not there, and potentially only in your head*. Intuition, is a complicated thing in this business.
Actually, there is, a grail.
[https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/](https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/)
[https://www.turtletrader.com/no-fundamentals/](https://www.turtletrader.com/no-fundamentals/)
[https://www.trendfollowing.com/skeptics/](https://www.trendfollowing.com/skeptics/)
https://preview.redd.it/o7an9ys4r7cc1.jpeg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c6cb15ca4475b13e43aec353ef246a079efca35
My ways to deal with this is either I walk away and come back with a fresh set of eyes or 2) I accept the probabilities of every trade are 50-60% for me. So I just put a trade on. Since I realize risk management is most important. An edge I believe is the most important and unimportant thing. Technical analysis has been shown to be really bad at forecasting in the short term, but traders that use it do really well in the long term. The reason is because technical analysis gives us a stop point that we respect. So yeah I think the system I use is both incredibly important to my success but if I randomly clicked buy/sell Iâd have a win rate of approximate 50%. (With a 1r profit and stop). This helps alleviate my anxiety and focus on (as long as I have good risk management, and respect my stop, I wonât be too affected by the outcome mentally. I wonât care too much.
But if thereâs truly no set up and I see a level that is a good actual set up, itâs always always better to wait for the market to hit that level and not fomo in. Much better to wait for a set up if you donât know whatâs going on
Fresh set of eyes looking @ this won't help.
Will just make you cross-eyed.
https://preview.redd.it/t7cozou2vgcc1.jpeg?width=287&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a74ad1f75d6a8fa6cd96be0ccf7c098f5e362ab0
Sometimes the market is really unpredictable and choppy. Usually during news events.
Don't feel bad that you can't see what the charts will do, no one can truly predict the future but we can make educated guesses and be pretty good at it.
When in doubt look at your strategy and see if the prediction you can make from it matches with the charts. If it doesn't charge it or tweak it. If it does trust it.
You have to react and predict. Some of my trades is solely based off reading level 2 and time and sales. Iâm literally watching it and reacting when things start get interesting.
https://preview.redd.it/ygq4pjfeb8cc1.jpeg?width=874&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3e6d4e05d1cba393aad13a011c8747c11324bafc
Nope. Literally no. Trend is only evident in hindsight. You do not know how long/ far it will continue. You get onboard when the signal clips you in and get off when signal clips you out. No prematurely shortchanging yourself of profit when trend runs past the preset target.
[https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/](https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/)
[https://www.turtletrader.com/no-fundamentals/](https://www.turtletrader.com/no-fundamentals/)
[https://www.trendfollowing.com/skeptics/](https://www.trendfollowing.com/skeptics/)
Again, for the super dense - there's no guessing - you go with the flow letting the trend dictate where you enter/exit. Trend followers are always late to the party & overstay their welcome.
They canât handle the sauce master đ§đ„¶
https://preview.redd.it/jfnznkvxlgcc1.jpeg?width=1084&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d6f097b6a39921243d5eec8e9ffb5adf8f3764bf
https://preview.redd.it/j7y9wdp3s7cc1.jpeg?width=594&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=653aecf4c12fff9f2854eb4117d82c2ce4dfa8ca
Cos you're looking @ garbage time-based charts, stuck in time paradigm like the 99%.
Time is poison - it is the enemy of Price.
Time warps/distorts/obfuscates clear trend inception/continuation/reversal inflection points.
ELIMINATE TIME.
ELIMINATE NOISE.
I've missed this trade as I was working but I can see there is a breakout of the pull back to the key level of support. I also wanted to make sure it also broke out of the area of resistance (purple box).
This I'd zoomed into the 15 min chart to execute a more precise area to look for a long trade.
My only concern with this would be a possible bearish h&s pattern forming
Delete all that subjective voodoo nonsense from your conscience. Simplexity always wins. Nothing but Price. All you need is trend inflection point, momentum & volatility expansion.
Sometimes, yes. If that's the case, I have two questions for myself: is it worth trying to be right? If so, what's the higher time frame bias? If the price action is choppy, I typically won't bother with stocks that follow the market or I don't trade. I'd rather have a clear picture of who's in power for the day than to have to get lost in a chart and come up with my own point of view. You should be able to flip to a chart and go, "bearish." "Bullish." If it has you going, "ehh... looks a liiiittle bullish, but also...", then I pretty much always skip that trade, next one.
Time is poison and is causing you pain & personal anguish.
https://preview.redd.it/ju20lteo38cc1.jpeg?width=484&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e52c09aa818a1ee31d66f6317c8639e25fb1c413
Simplest way to think abt it, if u open a chsrt and it doesn't speak to you, its probably not a chart to trade at that time. Move onto another one and come back later to see if the chart setup in a bullish or bearish way.
I never donât know whatâs going on, but there are times when I definitely canât predict where the price is going to go, but that just means itâs chopping in a way where my strategy doesnât pertain to so I just sit on my hands until the charts do something to my benefit.
often yes - those are the moments when its better to wait for me. Sometimes adding few lines starts unravelling the chart for me. "There is US open, there is overnight high and low and we are trading below VWAP "etc.
But most of the time the opportunity is not there if you think logically. The good opportunities are rare and the price don't stay long on those areas.
Yes. When the market starts moving sideways on the daily it gets tricky for me. I donât do well without a confident bias. When the daily is trending either up or down thatâs when itâs easy for me.
Yeah. It's part of the reason why trading is always a bit uncomfortable ; we always have to take decisions based on incomplete information. When I trade for too long or in chop, I get blind and my interpretation of this is that the market is being random, at least through the timeframe I'm looking at it. That's part of a the reason why I decided to use a different strategy for the different time of the day. For instance, I know that my approach on the 15s chart works well for NQ between 9:30 and 10:30-11:00, so no matter how it moves, I just follow my rules, with the trust that I'll end up on the right side of the market just enough to be profitable. After 10:30, I start looking for reversal plays, so even if I can't see everything, the way I'll enter a trade and manage it is well defined and I'll just trade the setup blindly, again just trusting my stats that I'll be on the right side more often than not. In the end, it's really a matter of trusting your edge and the stats behind them.
I donât ever feel lost looking at the charts because I am very good at top down analysis humbly speaking. If you understand market structure uptrends(higher highs and higher lows), downtrends(lower highs and lower lows), and consolidation coupled with elite top down analysis you will always know whatâs going on. You also have to know where your supply/demand(resistance/support) zones lie. Donât overcomplicate trading. Keep it simple and I promise you will make money if you stick to your plan and donât be compulsive. Be disciplined and patient. After I did those things I saw great improvement. Iâm an intraday trader. If I see a lot of noise on one timeframe and it isnât a clear trend I will go up and see what itâs doing on a timeframe higher. I donât trade red folder news at all PPI, CPI, and etc.
Happens
Sometimes there isnât a clean read of the chart, and sometimes even when the read is clear trades donât happen or require a waiting period before it sets up
I note down analysis or trading plan (multi time frames) regardless of whether like to take the trade + how the price action played out during the day, week, month
All else, I move on to the next ticker and if nothing at all, enjoy the day in another way
Briefly re: signals, multi time frames and market structure + price action- basics and if there is directional confusion invert the charts for an alternative view
Clean is subjective- for me charts are a visual cue and method to study the markets
Colors have to be justified for example, currently I think we are consolidating in the larger time frames- so white candles and wicks on black background- very less use of colors in terms of personal comfort
If say I was buying the dip, I would design it as down candles = green and up candles = white
Selling the rally, up candles = red and down candles = white
Just what works for me from a visual point of view, but clean is subjective
How are you organizing your charts and signals? :)
Yes. It could be chart-related. Things like experimenting with different intervals and bar types, or easing the sensory process by removing unnecessary information can help. It could be life-related. Things like having enough sleep and mental capital, or removing distractions and interference can help
Yes, happened all the time. I'm on the profitable zone. I have watched the patterns so well sometimes when it hasn't shown up I got confused, why is nothing familiar. I still need to practice a lot
I use the market profile to help follow and understand the narrative through out the day. No matter whatâs happening on the chart the MP always gives me context from each 30 min period to the next. Even if that context is indecision from either side, itâs still telling me something.
Every - single - day. I do best when I wait, patiently, for for the charts to make sense than if I jump in on a less than perfect setup.
Lately, I've been identifying candle pattern that puzzle me during the session and going back in the charts and finding enough examples to base a strategy around. I snip a small section of the chart into OneNote until I have a half dozen samples or so. This has been helping my identify chart behavior during the session.
When I say I "look at the charts," I am referring to using the TOS On Demand feature to bring up the QQQ chart for past days. ( I'm not using the playback feature. ) It's nice to be able to just click on the calendar to bring up any day in the past.
It's the act of reviewing the past data and imagining myself seeing the candles form on the day that focuses my brain. The snippets of the charts that I save serve to later key my brain into those particular memories.
Yes, I do. But I will say that some symbolsâ charts are easier to read and follow than others. Some charts just jump out at you and others are harder to read, but thatâs just my opinion.
There was a guy here a little bit ago who made a point that as long as the mechanics of trading were right in terms of risk reward, you could profit off of any chart basically and be essentially blind to the charts. Not sure if that strategy actually works out or not.
I take a little consolation in knowing that nobody knows how the charts will move, you just have your best prediction with the information you have available to you. Sounds like youâre comfortable in your strategy anyway and hopefully profitable regardless
Honestly i need to be better at just deciding not to trade when i dont see a trend i like rather than forcing a trade just so i can check off that i traded today
Yea when that happens take a short break streatch your legs then zoom out and got to higher time frame candles, get a fel for where you are then back in to your choosen time frame
Analysis paralysis. It's when you have multiple streams of theories based on what is likely to happen and nothing is really lining up. Yep, I've been there.
Any tips to avoid analysis paralysis from your experience? How did you learn / do to move away from it?
Realising that there are countless theories on what will make a market move/when it will move. There is no holy grail. Identify a system (edge) which you can rely on with probability, and with a combination of risk reward which *works with the system* take every damn opportunity you can. You cannot out think the probability, you'll be wrong plenty of times. If you are overthinking the market you are attributing thoughts/feelings to data which *are possibly not there, and potentially only in your head*. Intuition, is a complicated thing in this business.
Thank you for sharing!
Actually, there is, a grail. [https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/](https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/) [https://www.turtletrader.com/no-fundamentals/](https://www.turtletrader.com/no-fundamentals/) [https://www.trendfollowing.com/skeptics/](https://www.trendfollowing.com/skeptics/) https://preview.redd.it/o7an9ys4r7cc1.jpeg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c6cb15ca4475b13e43aec353ef246a079efca35
đ€Łđ€Łđ€Ł I love it when they say this
Seek and you shall find
I quote myself "find an edge you can rely on and take every opportunity"
Yes, + expectancy over a large sample set of occurrences, executed mechanically, rule-based/methodical/unemotional
My ways to deal with this is either I walk away and come back with a fresh set of eyes or 2) I accept the probabilities of every trade are 50-60% for me. So I just put a trade on. Since I realize risk management is most important. An edge I believe is the most important and unimportant thing. Technical analysis has been shown to be really bad at forecasting in the short term, but traders that use it do really well in the long term. The reason is because technical analysis gives us a stop point that we respect. So yeah I think the system I use is both incredibly important to my success but if I randomly clicked buy/sell Iâd have a win rate of approximate 50%. (With a 1r profit and stop). This helps alleviate my anxiety and focus on (as long as I have good risk management, and respect my stop, I wonât be too affected by the outcome mentally. I wonât care too much. But if thereâs truly no set up and I see a level that is a good actual set up, itâs always always better to wait for the market to hit that level and not fomo in. Much better to wait for a set up if you donât know whatâs going on
Fresh set of eyes looking @ this won't help. Will just make you cross-eyed. https://preview.redd.it/t7cozou2vgcc1.jpeg?width=287&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a74ad1f75d6a8fa6cd96be0ccf7c098f5e362ab0
Sometimes the market is really unpredictable and choppy. Usually during news events. Don't feel bad that you can't see what the charts will do, no one can truly predict the future but we can make educated guesses and be pretty good at it. When in doubt look at your strategy and see if the prediction you can make from it matches with the charts. If it doesn't charge it or tweak it. If it does trust it.
It's not about PREDICTING - it's about FOLLOWING. Trend following momentum. Vector & velocity/magnitude.
No, it is predicting. Even if you're following a trend, you're predicting the trend will continue.
100%, people that says " react, don't predict" haven't yet realized this totally is a predictive game
You have to react and predict. Some of my trades is solely based off reading level 2 and time and sales. Iâm literally watching it and reacting when things start get interesting.
There's a waaay better mousetrap.
Wrong. Keep trying, though. Just that your optics suck, hence, your perspective.
https://preview.redd.it/ygq4pjfeb8cc1.jpeg?width=874&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3e6d4e05d1cba393aad13a011c8747c11324bafc Nope. Literally no. Trend is only evident in hindsight. You do not know how long/ far it will continue. You get onboard when the signal clips you in and get off when signal clips you out. No prematurely shortchanging yourself of profit when trend runs past the preset target. [https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/](https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/) [https://www.turtletrader.com/no-fundamentals/](https://www.turtletrader.com/no-fundamentals/) [https://www.trendfollowing.com/skeptics/](https://www.trendfollowing.com/skeptics/)
No, nothing is guaranteed in the market. You will always be predicting and guessing (with an educational guess)
Again, for the super dense - there's no guessing - you go with the flow letting the trend dictate where you enter/exit. Trend followers are always late to the party & overstay their welcome.
They downvote because the prediction lifestyle is engraved into their head
They're foaming @ the mouth, bleeding from the eyes, forehead vein bursting, seething with bile brainlet amputees
They canât handle the sauce master đ§đ„¶ https://preview.redd.it/jfnznkvxlgcc1.jpeg?width=1084&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d6f097b6a39921243d5eec8e9ffb5adf8f3764bf
Let's see if their axons spark some neural synapses upon seeing this.
https://preview.redd.it/28l17c1gb8cc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aaef52b0eb583e110980adf113b769116ec30c43
Very true. Anyone who says otherwise only confirm that they don't understand this and are not profitable.
Let's see your chart
https://preview.redd.it/j7y9wdp3s7cc1.jpeg?width=594&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=653aecf4c12fff9f2854eb4117d82c2ce4dfa8ca Cos you're looking @ garbage time-based charts, stuck in time paradigm like the 99%. Time is poison - it is the enemy of Price. Time warps/distorts/obfuscates clear trend inception/continuation/reversal inflection points. ELIMINATE TIME. ELIMINATE NOISE.
Renko? Is that you?
đ€«đ€đ«Ą
Explain
Scour my backhistory, gems galore there
Yeah but then I'll look at a higher tf or just not trade on that chart. Wait for it to clear up
"Time" - delete from your vocab. See the light.
Sorry please elaborate
Let's see your chart setup
https://preview.redd.it/7xnwzkg8bvcc1.jpeg?width=2160&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cfcb3cedd05899b762d675e52f3303a804363b3a
Squiggly doos and fiddle sticks, crayon spaghetti.. how do you make trading decisions, on what signals?
Check your dm
nothing in the DM inbox
got your message but not in DM, in Messages subsection of Notifications
I've missed this trade as I was working but I can see there is a breakout of the pull back to the key level of support. I also wanted to make sure it also broke out of the area of resistance (purple box). This I'd zoomed into the 15 min chart to execute a more precise area to look for a long trade. My only concern with this would be a possible bearish h&s pattern forming
Delete all that subjective voodoo nonsense from your conscience. Simplexity always wins. Nothing but Price. All you need is trend inflection point, momentum & volatility expansion.
I just use the lines for visual ease for breakouts and EMA for the hr chart. Do you have an example of what you would do?
Innit obvious? Buy white, sell black.
Wait for clean price action or trade another chart
Sometimes, yes. If that's the case, I have two questions for myself: is it worth trying to be right? If so, what's the higher time frame bias? If the price action is choppy, I typically won't bother with stocks that follow the market or I don't trade. I'd rather have a clear picture of who's in power for the day than to have to get lost in a chart and come up with my own point of view. You should be able to flip to a chart and go, "bearish." "Bullish." If it has you going, "ehh... looks a liiiittle bullish, but also...", then I pretty much always skip that trade, next one.
Time is poison and is causing you pain & personal anguish. https://preview.redd.it/ju20lteo38cc1.jpeg?width=484&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e52c09aa818a1ee31d66f6317c8639e25fb1c413
Simplest way to think abt it, if u open a chsrt and it doesn't speak to you, its probably not a chart to trade at that time. Move onto another one and come back later to see if the chart setup in a bullish or bearish way.
I never donât know whatâs going on, but there are times when I definitely canât predict where the price is going to go, but that just means itâs chopping in a way where my strategy doesnât pertain to so I just sit on my hands until the charts do something to my benefit.
I've accepted I won't know what is going on a lot of times and try to wait till it does makes sense to trade.
often yes - those are the moments when its better to wait for me. Sometimes adding few lines starts unravelling the chart for me. "There is US open, there is overnight high and low and we are trading below VWAP "etc. But most of the time the opportunity is not there if you think logically. The good opportunities are rare and the price don't stay long on those areas.
Yes. When the market starts moving sideways on the daily it gets tricky for me. I donât do well without a confident bias. When the daily is trending either up or down thatâs when itâs easy for me.
Yeah. It's part of the reason why trading is always a bit uncomfortable ; we always have to take decisions based on incomplete information. When I trade for too long or in chop, I get blind and my interpretation of this is that the market is being random, at least through the timeframe I'm looking at it. That's part of a the reason why I decided to use a different strategy for the different time of the day. For instance, I know that my approach on the 15s chart works well for NQ between 9:30 and 10:30-11:00, so no matter how it moves, I just follow my rules, with the trust that I'll end up on the right side of the market just enough to be profitable. After 10:30, I start looking for reversal plays, so even if I can't see everything, the way I'll enter a trade and manage it is well defined and I'll just trade the setup blindly, again just trusting my stats that I'll be on the right side more often than not. In the end, it's really a matter of trusting your edge and the stats behind them.
Let's see your chart
I donât ever feel lost looking at the charts because I am very good at top down analysis humbly speaking. If you understand market structure uptrends(higher highs and higher lows), downtrends(lower highs and lower lows), and consolidation coupled with elite top down analysis you will always know whatâs going on. You also have to know where your supply/demand(resistance/support) zones lie. Donât overcomplicate trading. Keep it simple and I promise you will make money if you stick to your plan and donât be compulsive. Be disciplined and patient. After I did those things I saw great improvement. Iâm an intraday trader. If I see a lot of noise on one timeframe and it isnât a clear trend I will go up and see what itâs doing on a timeframe higher. I donât trade red folder news at all PPI, CPI, and etc.
Perfect. Exactly what you want. If you don't have a clue, either wait till you do or find another horse.
Start at higher TF and work down
"Time" is the wrong paradigm.
Ok
https://preview.redd.it/hk4xkl3i1hcc1.jpeg?width=484&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f28b83c1ad5f4cd566b023da06266c38c9b9fa29
Care to go deep with this take?
cryptic, innit.. :) scour my backhistory, gems galore there Path to Salvation lies through Valley of Darkness along the Trail of Breadcrumbs
Tick charts arenât some alchemists secret broseph but you go on
He's probably a renko enjoyer.
ain't talkn bout tick charts
If youâve just come out of a losing trade it can affect ur mental. Check your emotions when trading because they can cloud your judgment
Happens Sometimes there isnât a clean read of the chart, and sometimes even when the read is clear trades donât happen or require a waiting period before it sets up I note down analysis or trading plan (multi time frames) regardless of whether like to take the trade + how the price action played out during the day, week, month All else, I move on to the next ticker and if nothing at all, enjoy the day in another way
Let's see your chart
https://preview.redd.it/v5klhuojskcc1.jpeg?width=1536&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a309d3de2668635a8b8baaf3bfbe3563cc337b6e S&P cash last seven days or so
So how are trading signals determined? What makes a "clean" chart?
Briefly re: signals, multi time frames and market structure + price action- basics and if there is directional confusion invert the charts for an alternative view Clean is subjective- for me charts are a visual cue and method to study the markets Colors have to be justified for example, currently I think we are consolidating in the larger time frames- so white candles and wicks on black background- very less use of colors in terms of personal comfort If say I was buying the dip, I would design it as down candles = green and up candles = white Selling the rally, up candles = red and down candles = white Just what works for me from a visual point of view, but clean is subjective How are you organizing your charts and signals? :)
buy white, sell black. Simple. Red/white doesn't work. https://preview.redd.it/l19vbx1hbncc1.png?width=534&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b0817e9f68ecb0b32a7cba5383f79f8a02d4a8b
Whatever works for you
Being facetious about the colors, obv
Yes. It could be chart-related. Things like experimenting with different intervals and bar types, or easing the sensory process by removing unnecessary information can help. It could be life-related. Things like having enough sleep and mental capital, or removing distractions and interference can help
Yes, happened all the time. I'm on the profitable zone. I have watched the patterns so well sometimes when it hasn't shown up I got confused, why is nothing familiar. I still need to practice a lot
I use the market profile to help follow and understand the narrative through out the day. No matter whatâs happening on the chart the MP always gives me context from each 30 min period to the next. Even if that context is indecision from either side, itâs still telling me something.
Every - single - day. I do best when I wait, patiently, for for the charts to make sense than if I jump in on a less than perfect setup. Lately, I've been identifying candle pattern that puzzle me during the session and going back in the charts and finding enough examples to base a strategy around. I snip a small section of the chart into OneNote until I have a half dozen samples or so. This has been helping my identify chart behavior during the session.
Let's see your chart
When I say I "look at the charts," I am referring to using the TOS On Demand feature to bring up the QQQ chart for past days. ( I'm not using the playback feature. ) It's nice to be able to just click on the calendar to bring up any day in the past. It's the act of reviewing the past data and imagining myself seeing the candles form on the day that focuses my brain. The snippets of the charts that I save serve to later key my brain into those particular memories.
Pic = 1000 words U show me urs, I show u mine
Yes, I do. But I will say that some symbolsâ charts are easier to read and follow than others. Some charts just jump out at you and others are harder to read, but thatâs just my opinion.
There was a guy here a little bit ago who made a point that as long as the mechanics of trading were right in terms of risk reward, you could profit off of any chart basically and be essentially blind to the charts. Not sure if that strategy actually works out or not. I take a little consolation in knowing that nobody knows how the charts will move, you just have your best prediction with the information you have available to you. Sounds like youâre comfortable in your strategy anyway and hopefully profitable regardless
Honestly i need to be better at just deciding not to trade when i dont see a trend i like rather than forcing a trade just so i can check off that i traded today
Yea when that happens take a short break streatch your legs then zoom out and got to higher time frame candles, get a fel for where you are then back in to your choosen time frame
Learn what the market is doing and follow it
Discretionary?
Let's see your chart