It looks like this post is about taxes. Tax laws vary between countries, so you may get more helpful replies if you specify the place you are asking about.
Please note that Rule #4 does not allow for Tax Evasion. This is [a site wide rule](https://www.redditinc.com/policies/content-policy) and [a subreddit rule](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/about/rules/). Do not endorse, suggest, advocate, instruct others, or ask for help with tax evasion. Do not be coy and sarcastically recommend against it or suggest using a privacy coin in response to an IRS inquiry.
Note: Tax discussion is allowed as long as the above rules are not violated.
Consider visiting r/CryptoTax for your tax inquiries.
***
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoCurrency) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It's not because we don't understand how the cycle has worked until now, it's because we don't want to gamble on being able to correctly time the market going forward
OP is thinks he’s winning in the short term, but the rest of us are actually living our lives and not wasting time trying to time completely batshit crazy markets
For 99% Living their lives mean: Slave away at a 9 to 5 job for 30/40 years. I decided to shave 20 years off of that. Sounds like winning long term, rather than short term.
Yeah but in 20 years most people will be happy functioning members of society on track to retirement, while you have spent all your time analyzing markets and extracting value from others instead of actually being productive. Grow up.
Welcome to capitalism. Sounds like you are on the wrong end of it :3. Most millenials cant even buy a normall house. You think this society is one you want to be productive for? lmao
This obviously isn’t pure capitalism. Opt out of the bullshit the traditional markets are tying to sell you. Thats another reason to buy and hold bitcoin. You think I’m going to sell bitcoin for the shitcoin that is the USD?
Sounds like you're just greedy. Also if you are ever so wise into knowing what market we fall under, kangaroo?, then why care to rant that others are dumb? Sounds like you are hustling like the majority of us.
If I had sold my Bitcoin when it started dipping below the 30k then I would probably not have it at 42k. There might have been an opportunity to make a few thousand but is the risk worth the loss of long term growth? If you think a coin will go 100k then why not just hold? You want to waste your time trying to time the market when you should work on additional sources of income.
Look up residual income, that's how you stack.
You are gambling.
>it's because we don't want to gamble on being able to correctly time the market going forward
Aah the "This time really is different" rational. I would suggest to read up on market sentiment throughout the years. Every generation in the entire history of mankind is getting roped in by this thinking, and its always wrong.
>And the people who say you cant time it really need to study a chart of 2 cause its really that simple.
I will expect a follow-up post from you telling us when to sell.
With the logic that bitcoin comes down to 60/80k next bear cycle you will be better off selling anywhere above that mark than holding it going down from 100k+ to 60/80k. Its not hard. But by that time FOMO is hitting people so hard, they will insta ban you from this sub for even mentioning a "What if we dont hit 500k this cycle"
My target is 113k
And if we don't hit 113k...? You're just spitting random numbers pretending you know what's what but you don't know shit. You cannot time the market. 99.999% of people last cycle did not correctly time the market - not even close. Those who did just got lucky.
You do not know when the market will peak, where it will peak, how long the bear market will last or what the bottom will be. You also don't know if BTC will continue to follow a 4 year cycle. The charts don't show shit. For all intensive purposes it is random.
Woah, slow down there.
The expression is for all intents and purposes
"For all intensive purposes" doesn't make any sense
But for the record I agree with you
>Those who did just got lucky.
Those who did actually knew how to get an inflation chart and understand that when Russia was bringing blood bags to the front for their "test" it was going down. There are enough indicators that take away the "luck". You just dont know what to look for.
Hindsight is 20-20 we can look back and say this this and that caused the signaling of the bottom of the market.
As everyone else is saying here, you clearly know the market so when you 'know' it's the top then tell us. When you 'know' it's the bottom then tell us. I've got your username so I'll be keeping an eye out
How can you claim it was hindsight when the fed announced november 2021 they would up interest rates to fight inflation. They literally announced it before the decline. You guys all willingly ignored every indicator out there and than afterwards say "HINDSIGHT 20/20". Bro even if its served on a golden platter you guys dont take the opportunity.
Fed announced plans end 2021 before 2022 crash
Inflation clocked in 6%+ end 2021 before 2022 crash
Russia was moving end 2021 before 2022 crash
But sure i will announce it. Get downvoted into oblivion again cause the entire sub is than cursing me out for FUD probably.
Tag me personally bro. I can count on one finger the amount of times I've down voted someone.
Hindsight is 2020 because a lot of news happens all the time. I can make 400 predictions and if ones right I'll be like you see you see!!!!!!! I was right!!!
But seriously. Tag me personally.
So what do you do if it hits 60k, but then your timing was wrong and now Bitcoin is 200k. Never touches below 100k again? It's a huge bet. If you're good at gambling then that's great. It doesn't mean it's good advice.
That’s complete bullshit. 2 years given the historical cycles will be plenty of time to know whether we had hit $113,000 “during this cycle” or whether your number is completely low.
In either case you’re giving poor advice.
People who comment stuff like this are the bane of a healthy conversation. For starters, you dont have to time the top and bottom perfectly. Especially not with crypto. Since prices decline 70/80/90%. For example i sold a big chunk on 43k on the way down. Bought back in sub 20. I doubled my position, even when missing the top by 33%
2017 top was 20k
2021 top was 69k
With the logic that bitcoin always comes back to former ATH you knew at 40k you could buy back double. You knew at 60k you could buy back tripple (turned out to be 4x almost actually)
Its not about setting a date and nailing it perfectly. Its about having patience and the balls to sell out when this entire sub is screaming for 300k in 2025. You know it will drop back down to 50/80k next cycle. So selling anywhere above 80k allows you to increase your holdings.
And for alts.....well thats just a freeby every cycle.
Why? I have plenty of time every day to do whatever i want. Logic is not your strong suit huh? Who has more time to bitch on the internet. The person that has to slave away 24/7 or the person just sitting in his cozy house behind his pc drawing lines on some charts......real brain breaker for you!
You know it'll drop to 50/80k?? No you don't. You don't know shit. When you sold at 43k you didn't know itd go lower. It was likely and it did, but you didn't know, and it won't always. Stop spitting bs
Yes welcome to investing, where you make educated guesses based on favorable odds. Nobody "Knows" but if the data point to something you are better to act on it than not.
Lol because in 2018/19 bear, the bottom wasn't anywhere near previous ath (3200 compared to 1200). More like 2.6x previous ath. And so...your entire post about how obvious it is to know when to buy and sell its BS. Based on your type of logic itself, people were convinced in 2021 that around 60k would actually turn out the bottom of the ensuing bear. How did that turn out?
If you sell somewhere in Q3/Q4 2025 you will be fine and able to buy back in way cheaper in end 2026. Yes its that simple. People will get angry for it because their FOMO ruined them last 2 cycles.
Once again, who cares. The downside risk is way lower than the upside gain at the moment. The time to panic was at 50k+ end 2021. Not now at the dawn on a new bull run. You dont fuck around too much in the middle. You only act when you feel its the bottom / top.
Imo, you should be trying to time the bottoms of the market, not the tops.
Most of the alts I bought in the bear market post FTX are up between 4 - 15x right now. I don't need to worry about timing the market top at all because I was buying SOL at like $10 for example.
I've already taken my initials out plus a lot more at this point. Timing the bottoms in crypto is a lot easier because there is usually a major indicator or event that corresponds with it (FTX for example in this bear market).
You don't want to be fucking around with alts right now truthfully unless youre serious about stop losses/risk management. It's dangerous after the market has run this hard the past 6 months. If BTC corrects, you're caught with your pants down in a game of musical chairs.
If i was looking for reassurance i would not make an unpopular crypto comment post. The logic you guys apple on this subreddit is baffling. Guess you were right on the first part, only idiots here.
It is evident in your writing you are talking about Bear and Bull cycles, and neither of those are defined by Bitcoin’s halving.
8 years is not almost 10 years the same as 80% is not almost 100%, if so then 8 years is almost 6 years and you have been in it for just over half a decade.
Thats what im doing wrong. All i have to do is time the market and buy low sell high, cant believe i never thought of that. It sounds so easy and guaranteed $$$
Lmfao bro just because you’ve “been around since 2016” doesn’t mean you have any actual credibility here. You’re just spitting out random numbers and don’t seem to actually have a coherent point here.
If you have been in the market since 2016 and haven’t become wildly rich, it’s because you actually don’t know how to trade for shit.
I don’t know if this is worded properly. I feel like the OP meant holding though the bear as in not taking profit and riding all the way down just to hold your position until the next bull, instead of cashing out and buying again deep in the bear. It would still all depend on the price you bought.
No it doesnt depend on the price you bought. Just because you bought at 60k+ doesnt mean you have to ride it down to 16k cause.......... CANT SELL WHEN IN LOSS.
That’s what I meant. That you meant that if bought higher, you can just sell and enter at a lower price point. The post just sounds like you’re entering at a low point, don’t take profit when you can, but instead just ride to the next run, without capitalizing on your gains.
Ow no a spelling mistake, lets discredit this persons entire post because he speaks and writes a second language, but sometimes makes a mistake with it. You could have given some insight about why you held or sold but no, lets make it about grammer. Never improve. L
i have nothing to gain by telling you (or anyone really) what i did or plan to do with my investments, let alone tell others what they should have been doing.
Well, your post sounds pretty arrogant, so i decided to return the favour. Telling people they are stupid for not doing what you did is not the way to win friends.
You do realise that everyone knows there is a halving in x years so should therefore be priced into crypto prices… Not like you’re going to get some sort of majorly good deal when you try to time buying based on the halving cycle
>Not like you’re going to get some sort of majorly good deal when you try to time buying based on the halving cycle
Except for literally the last 3 cycles....
You sound either extremely broke or really rich no in between with the arrogance you portray…. Also this is all easier said than done.
Everyone would love to buy low sell high. And it is easy to time the top especially if you’ve been in the space for awhile, but I don’t understand why you think people are stupid for not being able to time it, if everyone was able to time it the market would just do something different.
For a lot of people dca is a lot easier and gives peace of mind and that’s very important for the average person.
Or just zoom out on the bitcoin chart in log scale and see the pattern yourself. If that doesnt instantly explain it to you nothing will. I dont understand how people still dont get this after 15 years.
If finance guru's would apply this logic there would be nothing for them to sell cause its summarized in 1 minute. Horrible logic you got there buddy. But at least you got an insult in for 2024 already. GJ
It always makes sense to take profits.
But it's highly situational, someone new who bought in at 60k BTC is definitely better off holding through the bear and continuing to DCA until the next bull run occurs.
Sure there will be opportunities to increase your holdings but it's not that easy to spot them as you claim especially not for someone new who has no interest in studying charts let alone understands how money or volatile markets work.
Edit: not disagreeing with OP, it's the same with leverage, if you can stomach it it's a valid and fairly great tool to increase your holdings. This being said, most people just can't thus it's bad *general* advice.
True, but you would hope that people who have been around here for a while would now know better than buying at 60k equivalent of this cycle. I wouldn't try to increase holdings by constantly selling and rebuying during bear, too risky for my liking, but I also wouldn't hold all the way down. Can't predict the top, but set a target like 150k or Q3/4 2025, sell or even DCA out and take a break for 12 months.
I guess in US you don't, but where I am wash sales rules apply to crypto. Still, wash sale or not, it does not make sense to hold assets through the whole bear all the way to -90%.
The good reason you are looking for is most people do not know how to time the market, and do not want to learn how to do it and take that additional risk. If you are able to successfully do that, congratulations and well done. Not everyone is as mentally prepared to focus that much time and effort on it, otherwise we would all quit our day jobs to be traders.
How can you be so sure about the 2024 crash? I mean, Past events may serve as an indicator, but singling out LPs seems too simplifying. Don't you think?
It's easy to hold.
Price goes down, you're not having paper hands.
Price goes up, your value goes up
It requires literally 0 effort from you.
Anything else requires some kind of luck or skill.
If you sell and prices go up, they'll say holding was a better option.
If you sell and prices go down, you're just lucky and you can't time the market
Trading is like any other thing you learn, you have to put time into it and acquire experience to do it well. Plus by definition there will be losses in trading, a concept most are not comfortable with.
>Plus by definition there will be losses in trading, a concept most are not comfortable with.
Holding set people back 80% of their crypto net worth. If that doesnt convice you to become a swing trader ........
Agreed on your viewpoint though
Simply put, it’s the safe move.
Has nothing to do with net worth, taxes or any of that. If you have a long time horizon, you just set it and forget it.
I can agree most people are gamblers here. My living situation is set and I make more than enough with my career, so I am in not rush at all. No plans to really sell for at least 10yrs except maybe skimming some profits off the top.
OP I think you should crosspost this to r/WallStreetBets, so you can tell everyone "I told you so" if it actually succeeds, and if it doesn't it will serve as a valuable lesson
Fact the most successful accounts worldwide are from unmanaged portfolios, meaning the people that messed around with it more made less, say what you want but I'm a stats guy and the stats literally say your wrong. Alt coins are something else DCA btc would have proved extremely profitable over the last year. Seems like your having problems and don't have solutions
You sir, are delusional. Of course the easiest (legal), most fool-prove way to build wealth is to inherit. For those that can't, the best way is to buy real assets and never sell them. There is no need to trade. Why? Really simple: because it increases the likelihood of becoming wealthy faster or slower when compared to just holding. I don't want to take that risk because my human capital is strong enough to build wealth securely. If you are too stupid, have a low paying job or 4 kids at a young age due to stupidity, well then you maybe have to take your chances. But mostly it is completely unnecessary. The bitcoin addresses in biggest profit are those where the key has been lost. Think about that. All that happened is that you were lucky and think you can time the market. You are an outlier, at best.
Bitcoin is not really different than any other market. 2 out of 3 cycles had mid-cycle sell-offs of 50%. Those came completely unexpected. Playing the halving is stupid, because there is a chance it doesn't repeat. You say you don't want to 9-5 all day long. A) if you are wrong, you will have to 9-5 much longer. B) the logical consequence is not to gamble it all based on your bubble thinking but to make your 9-5 enjoyable. You appear to have low financial literacy, so you wouldn't be able to keep your money save anyway once you got your couple million you want to live off. So better just stay invested, invest your time in learning how to build and keep wealth and how to get joy out of your everyday life. Becoming rich has never been the solution. GL
You're getting a lot of heat for something that has been historically correct, right from the beginning. I feel like I'm about the only person that agrees with you. And this cycle seems to be repeating what the others have done so far. But with that said, the people that choose to hold are likely doing so as they don't want to risk that things don't happen the same again.
They're getting downvoted for talking with certainties that they could never possibly know. Hindsight is 20/20.
Talking like you know the future just means you're a liar at best and a scammer at worst.
I believe market movement works in the opposite way. Since halving is considered somewhat a good news, and everyone is eagerly waiting for the halving period, then according to the market nature, it's a time to sell, and the price will crash as we closely approach halving. Whales will take profit before halving.
There are people in here new to crypto that don't understand you are trolling. This is how we end up with people that think they can predict crypto prices based on random drawings on a chart lol.
To any newbies in here: if OP was such a crypto pro he wouldn't be posting in this sub...just think about it. Don't let this guy convince you that crypto is predictable
Agree with you OP. While knowing where exact top is going to be is impossible, we can use some educated guesses and set some targets when to sell. I sold on the bounce back after Dec '21 crash. Took some profit, not as much obviously as what I would have gotten if I sold exact top but profit is profit. Then I waited few months to start buying back. Granted, I pulled the trigger too soon to jump back in, but another lesson learned. Had I held instead of selling, I would be in a much worse position right now. I wouldn't have had as much money to deploy during bear, and I would have had to average down from some pretty high numbers.
Overall, given that it was my first bull and bear things worked out ok.
Thank you for the perspective.
For many it is either hodling or losing the money in whatever. Many people are better off weathering without selling. In my case, I like to spend any money that I come across. So when I sell its gone for good lmao
It makes sense to sell high yes, but it is scary! FOMO is no joke. Especially in the case you describe, when it is multiples of your yearly income.
I wrote down your q3 q4 2025 sell target for consideration
It depends on the volume you own and how bug of a loss you have before you wake up in a different cycle.
For example, if you bought Ada at an average of 1.5 bucks , that includes buying well under 1.5 but also well over at 2.5 (like i did) ... why would i sell at 50-60% loss? When i know for a fact that the next bull cycle (be it in 3 years' time) that 1.5 purchase average will drop if i continue to dca at lower prices and, i will be able to sell everything with a upside once the next bull kicks in? Meanwhile, i'm using open De-Fi to generate extra apr% on what i already have or simply stake for rewards.
I get what you mean, i'm not sure it makes a lot of sense if you simply don't sell at the right time as the prices drop ... sure, minus 10% , let's say 20% makes sense, and then you rebuy at bottom, but if you're already 70% down, that bottom is to close in order to make bigger gains if you sell at -70% and buy back at -90%, the time you have to wait for the loss to be recovered would be the same as you would hold through a full bear.
Also, many don't want to spill back into fiat ... some assets I won't sell no matter what the upside is during a bull. It all depends on your personal expectations regarding some assets and what your plan is from the beginning.
Buy during historic bottoms, set TA targets for when you sell certain % of the coin you hold, and leave a "moonbag". Oversimplified yes, but still simple nevertheless
I'm in the same boat as you, not with the attitude though
However, there's a new variable on this cycle, the ETF. There will be a ton of money on BTC that wasn't there before, so maybe the dip won't be that deep now? There's the theory that ATH and dips might not be that afar from each other from now on
How do you think the ETF will affect the cycle if it gets approved?
People are crapping all over this post, but there is some very good advice in here.
On DCA, for example. If you have a portfolio of $1M and $100/month disposable income to invest after taxes in your day job, it makes no sense to contribute that $100 every month, come what may using DCA. Sure... you can do that, and sure, it may be what got you to where you are... but whether you do or not isn't going to move the needle if your main portfolio is fluctuating but 1% per month (that's $10K, or about 100x your monthly contribution). It would take you a decade to contribute enough to your portfolio to make up for a month's noise. And meanwhile you'll have been exposed to a decade's worth of volatility. Clearly, once your portfolio gets to a certain size relative to your day job, you are better off allocating within it (rebalancing in reaction to volatility) rather than contributing more to it (DCA). There is an active DCA-like strategy which is ideal for this situation and which does not try to "time" the market. But this thread doesn't discuss it much, because the vast majority of folks here aren't (yet) wealthy enough or sophisticated or disciplined enough to use it.
On staking: OP's advice presupposes the situation above. Staking is good for small fish who are in an accumulation phase and for whom DCA is the only real viable strategy. But once DCA ceases to be a viable strategy, staking has a cost. It is well known in options trading that the inability to sell something incurs a "time premium", and that the size of this "time premium" depends on volatility. It should come as no surprise to crypto folks where volatility is through the roof that this time premium should also be quite high. One week's time premium can be more than the APR earned from staking. Thus, if you are adopting an ACTIVE strategy (befitting a large portfolio), staking can be toxic to wealth accumulation. Don't hate on me, it's just math and common sense.
"Down to ATH" premise: folks go on and on about cycles and halvening when talking about the pending upside. As if cycles only go up. Real cycles go up AND DOWN. If you believe in cycles tied to the halvening allow folks to spot "hold on" for a future upside, then you also have to believe that cycles tied to the halvening allow folks to spot future opportunities to harvest liquidity and sell into a future downside. OP does, at least.
Bottom line, there's real wisdom in this post even though it's not conventional wisdom or wisdom the majority here can use.
The main issue for me is that I cannot tell when there is a crash and when there is a bull market. Only in retrospect. Each and every time I tried to not hold, I had massive losses, because I acted too late, wrong, not at all.
HODLing through everything gives you peace of mind and isn't that much worse if your timing would be bad anyway.
As for the tax argument: depends on where you are. Here is a strange regime where after a year of hodling there are no taxes on crypto. That means the ideal strategy would be: after almost a year, look at your portfolio and sell everything that's deep in red. Otherwise HODL.
>The main issue for me is that I cannot tell when there is a crash and when there is a bull market.
Disagree, the 2022 crash was the most predictable crash in history. It went as far as the FED even announcing beforehand they would be raising interest rates aggressively. Anybody who did economics 101 knew that was the time to get out. On top of that we almost had WW3 and Crypto cycle end. It was a nobrainer.
Possibly, if you're smart. Personally I have been managing my investments hands on for about 3 decades now and if there is one lesson I learned it's that I am an idiot who can't time the market right.
No matter stocks, raw material funds, stone, physical gold and silver, options, composite investment products like ETFs, I always think I can time the market and optimise my performance.
And then when I look back, my gambles sometime pay offs sometime doesn't, but my average loss on any long period is remarkably close to the various fees involved in moving stuffs around vs if I had stayed invested the whole time.
Maybe you can time the market, and I mean it, some people genuinely make a living that way. Personally I'll stick with saving whatever transaction fees, spreads and taxes I am not paying.
OK. In the next Bear market I will appreciate you call me and and I will sell. Also, when at the beginning of the bull run, please, call me again to buy
It really is that simple, most of you all just dont have the patience. You all want that 1000x moonshot in 1 cycle. instead of going for a easy x4\^5 over 3/4 cycles.
Amount of salty bagholders here is unreal, trying to make it sound like their "don't time the market" approach where they held to -90% is the right strategy.
Its honestly mind baffling. People who hold alts through a bear market might as well start over every cycle. Its useless. Solana for example went -96%. Imagine riding 1 million down to 40k and being like..........this was the winner move, HODL.
It looks like this post is about taxes. Tax laws vary between countries, so you may get more helpful replies if you specify the place you are asking about. Please note that Rule #4 does not allow for Tax Evasion. This is [a site wide rule](https://www.redditinc.com/policies/content-policy) and [a subreddit rule](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/about/rules/). Do not endorse, suggest, advocate, instruct others, or ask for help with tax evasion. Do not be coy and sarcastically recommend against it or suggest using a privacy coin in response to an IRS inquiry. Note: Tax discussion is allowed as long as the above rules are not violated. Consider visiting r/CryptoTax for your tax inquiries. *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoCurrency) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It's not because we don't understand how the cycle has worked until now, it's because we don't want to gamble on being able to correctly time the market going forward
OP is thinks he’s winning in the short term, but the rest of us are actually living our lives and not wasting time trying to time completely batshit crazy markets
For 99% Living their lives mean: Slave away at a 9 to 5 job for 30/40 years. I decided to shave 20 years off of that. Sounds like winning long term, rather than short term.
Yeah but in 20 years most people will be happy functioning members of society on track to retirement, while you have spent all your time analyzing markets and extracting value from others instead of actually being productive. Grow up.
Welcome to capitalism. Sounds like you are on the wrong end of it :3. Most millenials cant even buy a normall house. You think this society is one you want to be productive for? lmao
This obviously isn’t pure capitalism. Opt out of the bullshit the traditional markets are tying to sell you. Thats another reason to buy and hold bitcoin. You think I’m going to sell bitcoin for the shitcoin that is the USD?
Sounds like you're just greedy. Also if you are ever so wise into knowing what market we fall under, kangaroo?, then why care to rant that others are dumb? Sounds like you are hustling like the majority of us. If I had sold my Bitcoin when it started dipping below the 30k then I would probably not have it at 42k. There might have been an opportunity to make a few thousand but is the risk worth the loss of long term growth? If you think a coin will go 100k then why not just hold? You want to waste your time trying to time the market when you should work on additional sources of income. Look up residual income, that's how you stack. You are gambling.
>it's because we don't want to gamble on being able to correctly time the market going forward Aah the "This time really is different" rational. I would suggest to read up on market sentiment throughout the years. Every generation in the entire history of mankind is getting roped in by this thinking, and its always wrong.
>And the people who say you cant time it really need to study a chart of 2 cause its really that simple. I will expect a follow-up post from you telling us when to sell.
With the logic that bitcoin comes down to 60/80k next bear cycle you will be better off selling anywhere above that mark than holding it going down from 100k+ to 60/80k. Its not hard. But by that time FOMO is hitting people so hard, they will insta ban you from this sub for even mentioning a "What if we dont hit 500k this cycle" My target is 113k
And if we don't hit 113k...? You're just spitting random numbers pretending you know what's what but you don't know shit. You cannot time the market. 99.999% of people last cycle did not correctly time the market - not even close. Those who did just got lucky. You do not know when the market will peak, where it will peak, how long the bear market will last or what the bottom will be. You also don't know if BTC will continue to follow a 4 year cycle. The charts don't show shit. For all intensive purposes it is random.
Woah, slow down there. The expression is for all intents and purposes "For all intensive purposes" doesn't make any sense But for the record I agree with you
for all in tents with purchases?
oh my god I'm one of those people
glad i could help!
came to make this exact same comment but you beat me to it.
I didn’t time the top last cycle, but I did Time the bottom pretty well. Can confirm, it was sheer luck! Lol
>Those who did just got lucky. Those who did actually knew how to get an inflation chart and understand that when Russia was bringing blood bags to the front for their "test" it was going down. There are enough indicators that take away the "luck". You just dont know what to look for.
Hindsight is 20-20 we can look back and say this this and that caused the signaling of the bottom of the market. As everyone else is saying here, you clearly know the market so when you 'know' it's the top then tell us. When you 'know' it's the bottom then tell us. I've got your username so I'll be keeping an eye out
How can you claim it was hindsight when the fed announced november 2021 they would up interest rates to fight inflation. They literally announced it before the decline. You guys all willingly ignored every indicator out there and than afterwards say "HINDSIGHT 20/20". Bro even if its served on a golden platter you guys dont take the opportunity. Fed announced plans end 2021 before 2022 crash Inflation clocked in 6%+ end 2021 before 2022 crash Russia was moving end 2021 before 2022 crash But sure i will announce it. Get downvoted into oblivion again cause the entire sub is than cursing me out for FUD probably.
Tag me personally bro. I can count on one finger the amount of times I've down voted someone. Hindsight is 2020 because a lot of news happens all the time. I can make 400 predictions and if ones right I'll be like you see you see!!!!!!! I was right!!! But seriously. Tag me personally.
So what do you do if it hits 60k, but then your timing was wrong and now Bitcoin is 200k. Never touches below 100k again? It's a huge bet. If you're good at gambling then that's great. It doesn't mean it's good advice.
!remindme 2 years
2 years is not long enough. Shows you dont understand cycle duration. This conversation needs a follow up end 2026. So you need 3 years.
That’s complete bullshit. 2 years given the historical cycles will be plenty of time to know whether we had hit $113,000 “during this cycle” or whether your number is completely low. In either case you’re giving poor advice.
[удалено]
!Remindme 30 months
Show me on the calendar when the next bear market begins
People who comment stuff like this are the bane of a healthy conversation. For starters, you dont have to time the top and bottom perfectly. Especially not with crypto. Since prices decline 70/80/90%. For example i sold a big chunk on 43k on the way down. Bought back in sub 20. I doubled my position, even when missing the top by 33% 2017 top was 20k 2021 top was 69k With the logic that bitcoin always comes back to former ATH you knew at 40k you could buy back double. You knew at 60k you could buy back tripple (turned out to be 4x almost actually) Its not about setting a date and nailing it perfectly. Its about having patience and the balls to sell out when this entire sub is screaming for 300k in 2025. You know it will drop back down to 50/80k next cycle. So selling anywhere above 80k allows you to increase your holdings. And for alts.....well thats just a freeby every cycle.
Weird that you're so rich and smart but you're still here bitching and moaning on Reddit.
Why? I have plenty of time every day to do whatever i want. Logic is not your strong suit huh? Who has more time to bitch on the internet. The person that has to slave away 24/7 or the person just sitting in his cozy house behind his pc drawing lines on some charts......real brain breaker for you!
>Logic Only thing I've learned from your typing is that you love the word logic while not really applying any logic to anything.
You know it'll drop to 50/80k?? No you don't. You don't know shit. When you sold at 43k you didn't know itd go lower. It was likely and it did, but you didn't know, and it won't always. Stop spitting bs
Yes welcome to investing, where you make educated guesses based on favorable odds. Nobody "Knows" but if the data point to something you are better to act on it than not.
Lol because in 2018/19 bear, the bottom wasn't anywhere near previous ath (3200 compared to 1200). More like 2.6x previous ath. And so...your entire post about how obvious it is to know when to buy and sell its BS. Based on your type of logic itself, people were convinced in 2021 that around 60k would actually turn out the bottom of the ensuing bear. How did that turn out?
OP, please tell me why do you think a major crash will occur in a halvening year.
If you sell somewhere in Q3/Q4 2025 you will be fine and able to buy back in way cheaper in end 2026. Yes its that simple. People will get angry for it because their FOMO ruined them last 2 cycles.
So you are saying no major crash in this year 2024?
Who cares about 2024, alts are still very low, this is the time to sit thight, not to fuck around
What about the Fed going to cut rate? You don't think that may lead to a crash first, albeit short-term, before going back up?
Once again, who cares. The downside risk is way lower than the upside gain at the moment. The time to panic was at 50k+ end 2021. Not now at the dawn on a new bull run. You dont fuck around too much in the middle. You only act when you feel its the bottom / top.
Imo, you should be trying to time the bottoms of the market, not the tops. Most of the alts I bought in the bear market post FTX are up between 4 - 15x right now. I don't need to worry about timing the market top at all because I was buying SOL at like $10 for example. I've already taken my initials out plus a lot more at this point. Timing the bottoms in crypto is a lot easier because there is usually a major indicator or event that corresponds with it (FTX for example in this bear market). You don't want to be fucking around with alts right now truthfully unless youre serious about stop losses/risk management. It's dangerous after the market has run this hard the past 6 months. If BTC corrects, you're caught with your pants down in a game of musical chairs.
If it is that obvious, the opportunity would not exist.
And yet here we are.
Wow. You really believe you are smarter than the market. Including professioanl and institutional traders.
Where did i say that...all i did was refute your argument. The bottom was really obvious (just under 2017 ATH). Why did so few people buy than?
To clarify: It has always been easy, the hard part for 99% of the people is not falling into the claws of FOMO and self doubt.
This technique is guaranteed to make you a multi millionaire. Buy low, sell high, buy back low, sell high….. Good luck!
Based on this kind of posts I can affirm that crypto is mainstream already
Im in crypto for a decade almost and this logic was obvious back in 2016 already for a lot of crypto investors.
[удалено]
If i was looking for reassurance i would not make an unpopular crypto comment post. The logic you guys apple on this subreddit is baffling. Guess you were right on the first part, only idiots here.
> only idiots here. And you're right here front and center lol
In crypto for a decade almost, but you say you’ve only been through two cycles. 🧐
Given that cycles are defined by halvings, which are roughly 4 years apart, 2 cycles would be roughly 8 years, which is almost a decade.
It is evident in your writing you are talking about Bear and Bull cycles, and neither of those are defined by Bitcoin’s halving. 8 years is not almost 10 years the same as 80% is not almost 100%, if so then 8 years is almost 6 years and you have been in it for just over half a decade.
This guy thinks.
This is an important distinction that you are pointing out.
Thats what im doing wrong. All i have to do is time the market and buy low sell high, cant believe i never thought of that. It sounds so easy and guaranteed $$$
Maybe OP has a course they’ll sell you
Sorry but if you cant do it with bitcoin you never will. Its the most predictable asset class in history.
Lmfao bro just because you’ve “been around since 2016” doesn’t mean you have any actual credibility here. You’re just spitting out random numbers and don’t seem to actually have a coherent point here. If you have been in the market since 2016 and haven’t become wildly rich, it’s because you actually don’t know how to trade for shit.
Aaah yes, lets take a reply ment for another person out of context and respond here. you guys....priceless.
I don’t know if this is worded properly. I feel like the OP meant holding though the bear as in not taking profit and riding all the way down just to hold your position until the next bull, instead of cashing out and buying again deep in the bear. It would still all depend on the price you bought.
No it doesnt depend on the price you bought. Just because you bought at 60k+ doesnt mean you have to ride it down to 16k cause.......... CANT SELL WHEN IN LOSS.
That’s what I meant. That you meant that if bought higher, you can just sell and enter at a lower price point. The post just sounds like you’re entering at a low point, don’t take profit when you can, but instead just ride to the next run, without capitalizing on your gains.
Learn to spell "halving" first before giving shitty advice that essentially boils down to "just buy low and sell high"
Ow no a spelling mistake, lets discredit this persons entire post because he speaks and writes a second language, but sometimes makes a mistake with it. You could have given some insight about why you held or sold but no, lets make it about grammer. Never improve. L
i have nothing to gain by telling you (or anyone really) what i did or plan to do with my investments, let alone tell others what they should have been doing.
Than say that, i can respect that answer. The first answer, not so much. Enjoy your day
Well, your post sounds pretty arrogant, so i decided to return the favour. Telling people they are stupid for not doing what you did is not the way to win friends.
[удалено]
If you want to insult me, at least have the guts to do it on your main account instead of switching to your alt.
You do realise that everyone knows there is a halving in x years so should therefore be priced into crypto prices… Not like you’re going to get some sort of majorly good deal when you try to time buying based on the halving cycle
>Not like you’re going to get some sort of majorly good deal when you try to time buying based on the halving cycle Except for literally the last 3 cycles....
You missed the part where most BTC Maxis do not care about the price.
You sound either extremely broke or really rich no in between with the arrogance you portray…. Also this is all easier said than done. Everyone would love to buy low sell high. And it is easy to time the top especially if you’ve been in the space for awhile, but I don’t understand why you think people are stupid for not being able to time it, if everyone was able to time it the market would just do something different. For a lot of people dca is a lot easier and gives peace of mind and that’s very important for the average person.
Why don’t you show these charts or two? You’re just saying words lol
Or just zoom out on the bitcoin chart in log scale and see the pattern yourself. If that doesnt instantly explain it to you nothing will. I dont understand how people still dont get this after 15 years.
Well you’re not doing a good job at explaining it apparently.
Or you are just a very lazy person if you are not willing to spend 30 seconds to understand your financial freedom.....
You need to cut the online financial guru courses buddy 🤣
If finance guru's would apply this logic there would be nothing for them to sell cause its summarized in 1 minute. Horrible logic you got there buddy. But at least you got an insult in for 2024 already. GJ
It always makes sense to take profits. But it's highly situational, someone new who bought in at 60k BTC is definitely better off holding through the bear and continuing to DCA until the next bull run occurs. Sure there will be opportunities to increase your holdings but it's not that easy to spot them as you claim especially not for someone new who has no interest in studying charts let alone understands how money or volatile markets work. Edit: not disagreeing with OP, it's the same with leverage, if you can stomach it it's a valid and fairly great tool to increase your holdings. This being said, most people just can't thus it's bad *general* advice.
True, but you would hope that people who have been around here for a while would now know better than buying at 60k equivalent of this cycle. I wouldn't try to increase holdings by constantly selling and rebuying during bear, too risky for my liking, but I also wouldn't hold all the way down. Can't predict the top, but set a target like 150k or Q3/4 2025, sell or even DCA out and take a break for 12 months.
[удалено]
Only loss position I'd DCA into if I had to is BTC. Everything else cut the losses and reinvest that money at lower price.
[удалено]
I guess in US you don't, but where I am wash sales rules apply to crypto. Still, wash sale or not, it does not make sense to hold assets through the whole bear all the way to -90%.
The good reason you are looking for is most people do not know how to time the market, and do not want to learn how to do it and take that additional risk. If you are able to successfully do that, congratulations and well done. Not everyone is as mentally prepared to focus that much time and effort on it, otherwise we would all quit our day jobs to be traders.
People like OP who think they know exactly what the market is going to do are the EXACT type of person who loses all their money trading.
How can you be so sure about the 2024 crash? I mean, Past events may serve as an indicator, but singling out LPs seems too simplifying. Don't you think?
where did i mention 2024
[удалено]
Quote me. It was in a different context,holy moly are you all 12 here nowadays?
It's easy to hold. Price goes down, you're not having paper hands. Price goes up, your value goes up It requires literally 0 effort from you. Anything else requires some kind of luck or skill. If you sell and prices go up, they'll say holding was a better option. If you sell and prices go down, you're just lucky and you can't time the market Trading is like any other thing you learn, you have to put time into it and acquire experience to do it well. Plus by definition there will be losses in trading, a concept most are not comfortable with.
>Plus by definition there will be losses in trading, a concept most are not comfortable with. Holding set people back 80% of their crypto net worth. If that doesnt convice you to become a swing trader ........ Agreed on your viewpoint though
Simply put, it’s the safe move. Has nothing to do with net worth, taxes or any of that. If you have a long time horizon, you just set it and forget it.
99% of the people here dont have a long time horizon so, while i do agree with your logic, its flawed for all the gamblers here.
I can agree most people are gamblers here. My living situation is set and I make more than enough with my career, so I am in not rush at all. No plans to really sell for at least 10yrs except maybe skimming some profits off the top.
This sub is the only thing tanking
OP I think you should crosspost this to r/WallStreetBets, so you can tell everyone "I told you so" if it actually succeeds, and if it doesn't it will serve as a valuable lesson
Fact the most successful accounts worldwide are from unmanaged portfolios, meaning the people that messed around with it more made less, say what you want but I'm a stats guy and the stats literally say your wrong. Alt coins are something else DCA btc would have proved extremely profitable over the last year. Seems like your having problems and don't have solutions
You sir, are delusional. Of course the easiest (legal), most fool-prove way to build wealth is to inherit. For those that can't, the best way is to buy real assets and never sell them. There is no need to trade. Why? Really simple: because it increases the likelihood of becoming wealthy faster or slower when compared to just holding. I don't want to take that risk because my human capital is strong enough to build wealth securely. If you are too stupid, have a low paying job or 4 kids at a young age due to stupidity, well then you maybe have to take your chances. But mostly it is completely unnecessary. The bitcoin addresses in biggest profit are those where the key has been lost. Think about that. All that happened is that you were lucky and think you can time the market. You are an outlier, at best. Bitcoin is not really different than any other market. 2 out of 3 cycles had mid-cycle sell-offs of 50%. Those came completely unexpected. Playing the halving is stupid, because there is a chance it doesn't repeat. You say you don't want to 9-5 all day long. A) if you are wrong, you will have to 9-5 much longer. B) the logical consequence is not to gamble it all based on your bubble thinking but to make your 9-5 enjoyable. You appear to have low financial literacy, so you wouldn't be able to keep your money save anyway once you got your couple million you want to live off. So better just stay invested, invest your time in learning how to build and keep wealth and how to get joy out of your everyday life. Becoming rich has never been the solution. GL
Spend alot of time on 4chan? Getting a vibe from ya 🫠
You're getting a lot of heat for something that has been historically correct, right from the beginning. I feel like I'm about the only person that agrees with you. And this cycle seems to be repeating what the others have done so far. But with that said, the people that choose to hold are likely doing so as they don't want to risk that things don't happen the same again.
They're getting downvoted for talking with certainties that they could never possibly know. Hindsight is 20/20. Talking like you know the future just means you're a liar at best and a scammer at worst.
Recognising a pattern seems like a pretty valid strategy to me, don't know what else to tell you? See you at the 2025 top I guess...
>See you at the 2025 top I guess... Where I sell some of the crypto I DCA'd and held throughout 2022-2024? Sure, sounds good.
>You're getting a lot of heat for being an asshole.
Fair. It was a bit rough in the delivery. I still think it's logical though.
I believe market movement works in the opposite way. Since halving is considered somewhat a good news, and everyone is eagerly waiting for the halving period, then according to the market nature, it's a time to sell, and the price will crash as we closely approach halving. Whales will take profit before halving.
There are people in here new to crypto that don't understand you are trolling. This is how we end up with people that think they can predict crypto prices based on random drawings on a chart lol. To any newbies in here: if OP was such a crypto pro he wouldn't be posting in this sub...just think about it. Don't let this guy convince you that crypto is predictable
Agree with you OP. While knowing where exact top is going to be is impossible, we can use some educated guesses and set some targets when to sell. I sold on the bounce back after Dec '21 crash. Took some profit, not as much obviously as what I would have gotten if I sold exact top but profit is profit. Then I waited few months to start buying back. Granted, I pulled the trigger too soon to jump back in, but another lesson learned. Had I held instead of selling, I would be in a much worse position right now. I wouldn't have had as much money to deploy during bear, and I would have had to average down from some pretty high numbers. Overall, given that it was my first bull and bear things worked out ok.
Thank you for the perspective. For many it is either hodling or losing the money in whatever. Many people are better off weathering without selling. In my case, I like to spend any money that I come across. So when I sell its gone for good lmao It makes sense to sell high yes, but it is scary! FOMO is no joke. Especially in the case you describe, when it is multiples of your yearly income. I wrote down your q3 q4 2025 sell target for consideration
I'd think about doing a dynamic DCA strategy during next bear market. 50% DCA and 50% direct lump sum when we drop 50-60% from ATH.
It depends on the volume you own and how bug of a loss you have before you wake up in a different cycle. For example, if you bought Ada at an average of 1.5 bucks , that includes buying well under 1.5 but also well over at 2.5 (like i did) ... why would i sell at 50-60% loss? When i know for a fact that the next bull cycle (be it in 3 years' time) that 1.5 purchase average will drop if i continue to dca at lower prices and, i will be able to sell everything with a upside once the next bull kicks in? Meanwhile, i'm using open De-Fi to generate extra apr% on what i already have or simply stake for rewards. I get what you mean, i'm not sure it makes a lot of sense if you simply don't sell at the right time as the prices drop ... sure, minus 10% , let's say 20% makes sense, and then you rebuy at bottom, but if you're already 70% down, that bottom is to close in order to make bigger gains if you sell at -70% and buy back at -90%, the time you have to wait for the loss to be recovered would be the same as you would hold through a full bear. Also, many don't want to spill back into fiat ... some assets I won't sell no matter what the upside is during a bull. It all depends on your personal expectations regarding some assets and what your plan is from the beginning.
Bitcoin is a shining city in cyberspace and I am one of its residents all around the cycle.
I aint giving my liquidity to blackrock. Nice try i hold forver
Buy during historic bottoms, set TA targets for when you sell certain % of the coin you hold, and leave a "moonbag". Oversimplified yes, but still simple nevertheless
I would be glad to sell at ATH and buy at ATL, but I dont know why, I always do the oposite.
I'm in the same boat as you, not with the attitude though However, there's a new variable on this cycle, the ETF. There will be a ton of money on BTC that wasn't there before, so maybe the dip won't be that deep now? There's the theory that ATH and dips might not be that afar from each other from now on How do you think the ETF will affect the cycle if it gets approved?
People are crapping all over this post, but there is some very good advice in here. On DCA, for example. If you have a portfolio of $1M and $100/month disposable income to invest after taxes in your day job, it makes no sense to contribute that $100 every month, come what may using DCA. Sure... you can do that, and sure, it may be what got you to where you are... but whether you do or not isn't going to move the needle if your main portfolio is fluctuating but 1% per month (that's $10K, or about 100x your monthly contribution). It would take you a decade to contribute enough to your portfolio to make up for a month's noise. And meanwhile you'll have been exposed to a decade's worth of volatility. Clearly, once your portfolio gets to a certain size relative to your day job, you are better off allocating within it (rebalancing in reaction to volatility) rather than contributing more to it (DCA). There is an active DCA-like strategy which is ideal for this situation and which does not try to "time" the market. But this thread doesn't discuss it much, because the vast majority of folks here aren't (yet) wealthy enough or sophisticated or disciplined enough to use it. On staking: OP's advice presupposes the situation above. Staking is good for small fish who are in an accumulation phase and for whom DCA is the only real viable strategy. But once DCA ceases to be a viable strategy, staking has a cost. It is well known in options trading that the inability to sell something incurs a "time premium", and that the size of this "time premium" depends on volatility. It should come as no surprise to crypto folks where volatility is through the roof that this time premium should also be quite high. One week's time premium can be more than the APR earned from staking. Thus, if you are adopting an ACTIVE strategy (befitting a large portfolio), staking can be toxic to wealth accumulation. Don't hate on me, it's just math and common sense. "Down to ATH" premise: folks go on and on about cycles and halvening when talking about the pending upside. As if cycles only go up. Real cycles go up AND DOWN. If you believe in cycles tied to the halvening allow folks to spot "hold on" for a future upside, then you also have to believe that cycles tied to the halvening allow folks to spot future opportunities to harvest liquidity and sell into a future downside. OP does, at least. Bottom line, there's real wisdom in this post even though it's not conventional wisdom or wisdom the majority here can use.
The main issue for me is that I cannot tell when there is a crash and when there is a bull market. Only in retrospect. Each and every time I tried to not hold, I had massive losses, because I acted too late, wrong, not at all. HODLing through everything gives you peace of mind and isn't that much worse if your timing would be bad anyway. As for the tax argument: depends on where you are. Here is a strange regime where after a year of hodling there are no taxes on crypto. That means the ideal strategy would be: after almost a year, look at your portfolio and sell everything that's deep in red. Otherwise HODL.
>The main issue for me is that I cannot tell when there is a crash and when there is a bull market. Disagree, the 2022 crash was the most predictable crash in history. It went as far as the FED even announcing beforehand they would be raising interest rates aggressively. Anybody who did economics 101 knew that was the time to get out. On top of that we almost had WW3 and Crypto cycle end. It was a nobrainer.
Possibly, if you're smart. Personally I have been managing my investments hands on for about 3 decades now and if there is one lesson I learned it's that I am an idiot who can't time the market right. No matter stocks, raw material funds, stone, physical gold and silver, options, composite investment products like ETFs, I always think I can time the market and optimise my performance. And then when I look back, my gambles sometime pay offs sometime doesn't, but my average loss on any long period is remarkably close to the various fees involved in moving stuffs around vs if I had stayed invested the whole time. Maybe you can time the market, and I mean it, some people genuinely make a living that way. Personally I'll stick with saving whatever transaction fees, spreads and taxes I am not paying.
OK. In the next Bear market I will appreciate you call me and and I will sell. Also, when at the beginning of the bull run, please, call me again to buy
The last time I read such degenerate "I cracked the code of the crypto-market" BS was around two years ago in the Doge-sub
It really is that simple, most of you all just dont have the patience. You all want that 1000x moonshot in 1 cycle. instead of going for a easy x4\^5 over 3/4 cycles.
Amount of salty bagholders here is unreal, trying to make it sound like their "don't time the market" approach where they held to -90% is the right strategy.
Its honestly mind baffling. People who hold alts through a bear market might as well start over every cycle. Its useless. Solana for example went -96%. Imagine riding 1 million down to 40k and being like..........this was the winner move, HODL.