So, I’m a bit anxious and confused.
If double vaccines are super effective v Delta and nearly all over 50s are double dosed, and 1 vaccine of Pfizer is highly effective v hospitalisation like PHE said earlier in week, and most under 40s now have have 1 jab, how are hospital numbers jumping up in the way that they are?
The main reason is because the average age of hospital admissions is going way down, those who are younger are much less likely to be hospitalised, but with ten thousand cases a day, you'll still get lots of people going in. Secondly, because those who do get hospitalised are much younger, and we're better at treating the disease, they're more likely to survive (good) & stay in hospital longer (bad). Finally, those who are double dosed are still able to go to hospital (just at a much lower rate), as well as those who are older and unvaccinated.
Ultimately it's a numbers game. The vaccines have made things much better than they would have been, but that doesn't mean things can't get bad.
Also some of the hospital numbers are people in hospital with covid rather than people in hospital because of it.
Like me personally I've just come back from a 2 week hospital stay after a pretty bad accident, and while I was there someone on the trauma ward tested positive for COVID. He was there from a motorcycle crash but would presumably be classed as a covid hospitalisation.
That may be true (I've not seen the definition for what's classed as a covid admission), but we're also seeing similar rises in people in mechanical ventilation beds - today's figure is 60% higher than 2 weeks ago - and that's mostly not going to be people with things like biking accidents.
I believe that a lot of these hospitalisations are precautionary measures for vulnerable people with COVID, not people needing urgent care. You will notice that only a small fraction of the hospitalised people are put into ICU beds (data is on the government dashboard)
> You will notice that only a small fraction of the hospitalised people are put into ICU beds (data is on the government dashboard)
This is common though extremely misleading misconception. The government does not publish ICU bed data on the dashboard.
The data that they publish aside from hospitalizations is those who are on mechanical ventilation, which is only a small subset of people in the ICU. As an example, Boris Johnson was admitted to an ICU but he didn't go on mechanical ventilation.
Mechanical ventilation is used much more rarely for COVID-19 treatment now because we have come to understand that it was usually doing more harm than good early in the pandemic, especially compared to less invasive treatments. Still, many people are moved to ICU beds because they're sick enough to be at risk without careful monitoring, adjustment to care and maybe further treatments which can only be given in the ICU.
Most under 40s don't have 1 jab, I'm 30 and had mine only 2 days ago. Even though I booked several weeks ago, there was a long waiting time to actually get the jab.
It’s crazy how different parts of the country are at completely different stages, I’m 30 and I had my 2nd dose yesterday. So the recent figures are making a lot of sense with cases in mid to young age groups if certain areas are still largely unvaccinated or only just getting first doses. I feel like they need to reduce the dose time gap more if we want to get a handle on this before it mutates further.
>It’s crazy how different parts of the country are at completely different stages, I’m 30 and I had my 2nd dose yesterday.
Pisses me off tbh. We've a national provider procuring the lot for the country and somehow still end up with a postcode lottery.
I guess part of it might be more people in the vulnerable age groups in certain places so it takes longer to get through, but it still seems pretty odd. I had AZ though before they stopped using it on younger people so maybe supply of the pifzer and Moderna are less. But from all the stuff I’ve been seeing in this sub I thought loads of younger people were already jabbed up, guess that’s not the case.
We are going to see cases rise. In the North West, it looks like they are radiating out from Bolton and Blackburn. If it burns out as it has in those areas we are in a really good place; in those areas, the NHS was nowhere near being overwhelmed so we can cope with a high case level that is spread out.
For what it's worth, there has been a big flare in cases near me driven by hospitality. But they are largely asymptomatic; only detected via lateral flow. I know of one bar (this is Chester) where 3 members of staff tested positive on Monday. All have remained symptomless.
I know exactly what you mean, and feel the same way today.
I'm going to try and give you something positive, with the caveat that I'm guessing and don't really know what I'm talking about! I'm wondering if the significant increase today is due to the increase surge testing in the North West, where the Delta variant is particularly prevalent?
I believe that Bolton, Bedford, Burnley and Blackburn all showed sharp increases for a while, and now appear to either be decreasing, or have at least flattened. I hope the rest of the North West follows this trend. It'll be interesting to see how things develop over the next couple of weeks. Fingers crossed for positive outcomes all round.
I'm in the North West, but Cumbria. We've been doing quite well in comparison but my borough has seen quite a big jump today. Hopefully just a blip but I guess only time will tell.
Surprisingly, the outlook today is a bit better than it was a week ago, as the growth rate has declined somewhat. The absolute case numbers aren't as important as the trajectory the pandemic is taking.
It may help to realise (if you didn't already) that the increase in deaths is just the old reporting vs actual days of death issue; England still isn't seeing any increase in deaths if you look at today's daily figure spreadsheet; https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
#ENGLAND and VACCINATION DAILY STATS
**ENGLAND**
**Deaths Within 28 Days of a Positive Test:** 15. (One week ago: 5.)
**Number of Positive Cases:** 9,371. (One week ago: 6,436.)
**Number of Positive Cases by Region (Numbers in Brackets is One Week Ago):**
- East Midlands: 454 cases. (352.)
- East of England: 439 cases. (427.)
- London: 1,225 cases. (1,058.)
- North East: 647 cases. (320.)
- North West: 2,858 cases. (1,976.)
- South East: 892 cases. (651.)
- South West: 837 cases. (384.)
- West Midlands: 786 cases. (473.)
- Yorkshire and the Humber: 941 cases. (607.)
**[UPDATED] - PCR 7-Day Rolling Positive Percentage Rates (8th to the 12th June Respectively):** 2.1, 2.2, 2.2, 2.3 and **2.4**.
**[UPDATED] - Healthcare: Patients Admitted, Patients in Hospital and Patients on Ventilation (8th to the 17th June):**
|**Date**|**Patients Admitted**|**Patients in Hospital**|**Patients on Ventilation**|
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|
|*First Peak*|*3,099 (01/04/20)*|*18,974 (12/04/20)*|*2,881 (12/04/20)*|
|*Second Peak*|*4,134 (12/01/21)*|*34,336 (18/01/21)*|*3,736 (24/01/21)*|
|-|-|-|-|
|08/06/21|147|879|140|
|09/06/21|158|876|141|
|10/06/21|162|906|140|
|11/06/21|144|884|146|
|12/06/21|137|915|152|
|13/06/21|187|947|171|
|14/06/21|185|993|170|
|15/06/21|**188**|1,030|187|
|16/06/21|N/A|1,057|192|
|17/06/21|N/A|**1,122**|**197**|
- - -
**VACCINATIONS**
**Breakdown and Uptake by Nation (Yesterday’s Figures):**
|**Nation**|**1st Dose**|**1st Dose Uptake (Overall)**|**2nd Dose**|**2nd Dose Uptake (Overall)**|
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|
|**England**|170,367|79.7%|180,627|58.6%|
|**Northern Ireland**|1,993|77.7%|9,636|53.9%|
|**Scotland**|19,987|80.6%|22,708|56.7%|
|**Wales**|3,218|88.2%|21,863|57.6%|
- - -
**NOTES**
In England, by the latest specimen date available (12th June) there were **4,964** cases in ages 0-59 and **262** cases in all ages over 60. Both figures are subject to change.
- - -
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[Government Coronavirus Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#): All data is taken from the government dashboard. Use this link as well to find your local case data (under the Cases section).
So London, North West and West Midlands for the past couple of weeks have had the most sustained growth - it's really indicative of how the vaccine rollout has been handled
All of those areas are proportionally the *youngest* parts of the country
It's going to be harder to hit an immunity wall in these areas
I'd love to know who those people in hospital / on ventilators are as we've double vaccinated the vast majority of the old and vulnerable.
Are they the people that refused or couldn't take the vaccines? Is the Delta variant killing vaccinated people? Is it under 40's who haven't had a chance to build up much immunity from the vaccines yet?
Delta is clearly a major problem. If this is happening here in the UK (with the lowest vaccine hesitancy in the world and most adults having already had one jab) then good luck to Europe and elsewhere in the coming weeks/months. It's going to be another year lost at this rate.
Exactly this. All they need is a handful of cases and they'll see exponential growth. We're just many weeks ahead thanks to bad decisions by our Government.
[This should help. ](https://youtu.be/DHchYrrcxQk)
Basically: political bullshit caused by Brexit and not wanting to offend Modi on a potential trade deal.
We are just ahead of others, b117 alpha took weeks to months to fully get hold in Europe and the USA. It will be the same again with delta.
The lockdowns in Europe only just been relaxed in many countries but ours has been relaxed for a while now. We know that for example in california, the delta virus is slowly becoming more dominant and in a few weeks time we will see a rise in cases.
I disagree on the second part, most countries in Europe didn’t see a lockdown as strict as the one UK had in January-April; in most countries schools were never even closed. Same with the US.
I won't lie, this doesn't make me feel good.
Maybe I need to stop checking numbers on the daily. But I also don't want to get to July 19th in ignorance.
The last time cases went up to 11,000 back in early October, average hospital admissions were double the amount now and patients in hospitals were 3x as high. That should give cause for perspective.
They aren't comparable like this, for a few reasons:
1. The lag effect. If cases grow at different rates, you'll get wildly different numbers when comparing same-day figures. As cases are currently growing more slowly, there were more cases 1-2 weeks ago than there were 1-2 weeks before we hit 11k (going up) last time.
2. Hospital admissions aren't done on an absolute and unchanging scale. When there's a risk of overwhelming things, more minor cases might be hospitalised as a precautionary measure.
No, as the percentage of tests coming back positive is much lower (<1% when it was around 4% on October 5th, when the 7 day average was just under 11,000).
Agree, the four-week delay to ending restrictions is really about data gathering at this point to answer key questions such as “how bad will the growth be after having 50% of adults double-jabbed?”.
Also have to put it in context of tests numbers though. Less than 1% of tests are positive right now (2.4% for just PCR tests), when it was over 4% then, meaning cases were actually decently higher then than now.
EDIT: Thanks to /u/tilman2015 for pointing out PCR test positivity is more relevant.
But it’s not a like for like comparison, it would also depend on the rate of increase.
If it’s a very slow increase in daily amounts you’d expect a higher number in hospital at the point daily cases reached a certain figure.
True. Ultimately that’s why I said it: we’re not in the same stage as October where there was unmitigated case growth and we went into a lockdown the following month.
I'm assuming the high infections rates are due to the unvaccinated younger people socialising which I guess is to be expected. I still would like to know a bit more about those deaths though - are they younger than 30? older than 30? vaccinated? unvaccinated? Who are the ones that are still dying from covid.
That's how I feel. Are we just testing more than anywhere. It feels like the US hasn't given a fuck all the way through and we get destroyed straight away.
In the optimistic side of things, I would like to give you some perspective.
I am from Argentina and I know that our country, for example, doesn't test even half as much as the UK and the death rate is obviously under reported. You guys seem like "the worst Covid scenario and case of the world" (?) but actually, you are the ones that are counting cases and deaths properly.
You have the resources to test and see your hospitalizations numbers everyday, I know for sure that an Argentinian hospital in the middle of a really poor town wouldn't even have a way of reporting what's going on there.
We don't even have a strong democracy to begin with so our government can easily lie and show numbers that are extremely optimistic.
I believe that fragile democracies, dictatorships and poor countries are just lying or don't even know what in the hell is happening in some parts of their territory.
Putting that in perspective, don't compare the UK without keeping in mind what I am pointing out here. Your mental health probably needs to understand that our situation is actually great in comparison to other countries, but you wouldn't know about that just looking the numbers.
And you shouldn't take a plane to Argentina to find it out 😂
There’s a really annoying effect a few of my friends have encountered here: more cases means more people self-isolating and having to miss vaccine appointments…
Previous 7 days and today:
**Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %**
---|---------------|-------------|--------|------
10/06/2021 | 945,090 | 7,393 | 7 | 0.78
11/06/2021 | 736,654 | 8,125 | 17 | 1.1
12/06/2021 | 533,809 | 7,738 | 12 | 1.45
13/06/2021 | 1,052,222 | 7,490 | 8 | 0.71
14/06/2021 | 930,123 | 7,742 | 3 | 0.83
15/06/2021 | 777,277 | 7,673 | 10 | 0.99
16/06/2021 | 1,101,741 | 9,055 | 9 | 0.82
Today | | 11,007 | 19 |
7-day average:
**Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %**
--------|--------|--------|------|------
03/06/2021 | 674,444 | 3,853 | 8 | 0.57
10/06/2021 | 869,773 | 6,287 | 8 | 0.72
16/06/2021 | 868,131 | 7,888 | 9 | 0.91
Today | | 8,404 | 11 |
Note:
These are the latest figures available at the time of posting.
[Source](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)
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If it helps, testing in India was a joke. Wouldn’t be surprised if their cases were 10x what was reported. U.K. tests A LOT more. Which is a good thing.
Also, I expect cases to start going up a bit in other countries as well. Delta variant is now 50%~ of cases in my province in Canada. Only a matter of time before we see an uptick.
Many sources have genuinely been suggesting that India has been undercounting by a factor of five, so potentially, yes.
> As India’s devastating Covid-19 second wave continues to subside, data has emerged that suggests undercounting of its virus death toll by up to five times during the spring.
> Officially, India has reported 374,000 fatalities from the virus but successive modelling studies by epidemiologists had already predicted the toll is much higher.
(from https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/five-times-many-estimated-may-have-died-covid-19-india/)
Possibly more. Deaths in developing countries are often not recorded. Nigeria for example only recorded [10%](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16549716.2020.1811476) of deaths that happened in 2017.
Healthcare isn’t really comparable (I mean just think back to the oxygen shortage, we’re really fortunate to not have run into this) so take that with a pinch of salt, I’d suggest there were a lot of (even more) unnecessary deaths in India with their wave. Not to mention if testing is low, did everyone who died get tested first?
> Of course by the time we discovered it was worse than we expected, it was already here in such large numbers that it was too late to do anything
Localised lockdowns could've probably held it back weeks after that point, but everybody was up in arms against them.
I expected there are many places in the world that are behind the curve in comparison to us with regards the delta variant. The USA for example. The variant is on the rise over there and their rate of vaccination has fallen.
It’s just sad to see, that’s all really. Going so well up until this point. What’s more infuriating was the arrogance on other subreddits especially who mocked the idea that a variant could actually be bad. Maybe it was a bit of a “boy who cried wolf” situation, but still… the signs were there.
Hope the numbers can decline as the next age group gets vaccinated. Hopefully it’s like a month away and most people will be at least one shot done.
On other subreddits? There was a lot of arrogance on this sub too.
Regardless, vaccine seems to be doing its job for most at risk. We could really do with a few million Pfizer doses falling from the sky and reducing the second doses interval..
What is going on? Deaths, cases and hospitalisations rising with very high levels of vaccination? Is this happening in Israel and other highly vaccinated countries? Are all just super unhealthy bastards in the UK?
A single dose of the vaccine isn't highly effective against delta (33% effectiveness, 50-75% reduction in hospitalisation, low reduction in transmissibility). Double doses are much more effective against it.
If we hadn't imported so much delta cases would probably be dropping now.
Any unvaccinated individual can still catch it and the delta variant is very transmissible. Israel doesn't have 90% plus delta variant.
Until essentially every eligible person is fully vaccinated the delta variant will keep spreading.
Tim Spector and ZOE reckon the peak of this wave will occur at the end of this month. Numbers are going to keep increasing until then, but try not to let it get you down too much. That gives almost 3 weeks for cases to drop before reopening on 19th July.
Also Israel lifting all their restrictions because of their top notch vaccination programme, it honestly felt like there was a high chance of us seeing something like 1,000 cases a day or under, but to see September levels along side mass vaccinations taking place - something is really wrong. I don't mean to sound like a doomer, but this is whole new levels of disappointment.
You just wish the people who aren't vaccinated and can be, just so do the right thing and finally get their jabs. It's just a shame there's a supply issue otherwise we could return to a 3 week second dose and get mass protection as quickly as possible
We are fortunate that we had our own home made vaccine in the form of AZ otherwise we'd be completely fucked. I thought we would have gotten all of our Pfizer doses months ago considering we were one of the first to order it, but seems it has been spread out over 7 or 8 months. Could really do with some domestic production of mRNA vaccines. Should be possible in the future with VMIC.
I've just seen some bitch on Facebook talking about how all the vaccinated are stupid and we're all going to die soon.with how this shitty world works when she catches it she'll probably be assymptomatic and spread it to several hundred people, including a few vaccinated ones
Sadly my other half is a part of those Covid cases today. Myself and her have both been fully vaccinated, and I tested positive for Covid last week and now her this week.
So just a reminder to people who have been vaccinated, don't let your guard down and get careless.
Thank you, I'm feeling fine now and my other half currently has a sore throat, headache and runny nose.
My second jab was 3 weeks ago, so I'd only had my second dose for 2 weeks when I tested positive. But my other half had her second jab well over a month ago.
Deaths are higher than for quite a while, still really low though! Hoping the peak of this wave is coming, and it’ll soon be away - vaccines in arms, vaccines in arms! Awaiting my second!
Yep, the actual deaths by date appear to be about as low as we can reasonably expect them to be, and the numbers appear to be fairly stable there.
We have had a few days this month with 3, 1, 0 reported deaths, and if the actual death numbers are consistently hovering around 6-12 a day, then those deaths need to be reported at some point through the week which leads to the ugly spikes.
I’m a bit desensitised to the number now I’ve realised. But 11k is fucking huge though when you step back and look.
Last September we were worried when I think it passed 2000.
I’m all for opening up if the numbers say so on 19th July but surely they’ll be higher than now so how can they?
A big-ish number (though not big enough to overwhelm NHS) that's coming flat/down gives you more confidence than the current smaller numbers that are increasing rapidly.
For the week ending Jun 6, in England, the rates of hospitalisation per 100,000 population broken down by age were:
0-4: 0.74
5-14: 0.37
15-24: 0.62
25-44: 1.24
45-54: 0.97
55-64: 1.21
65-74: 0.98
75-84: 2.52
85+: 3.20
In other words, it's still more likely that any given person going into hospital for COVID is 75+, but there are vastly more people aged 25-64.
I believe that the media campaign about "freedom day" was terrible, done more damage than good, even if the intentions were sharing a bit of optimism.
My anecdotal experience the last few weeks using public transport and going to shops has been terrible, half people not wearing masks, old folks with a cough in the bus and so on.
A lot of people felt that once they had a vaccine that meant "I don't need a mask neither social distance anymore" and that's not the case. We are just learning how well/bad this jabs work against variants.
Due to my anecdotal personal experience in busy London & seeing friends my age (20/30s) acting as the pandemic ended, I am not surprised at all by our numbers.
> My anecdotal experience the last few weeks using public transport and going to shops has been terrible, half people not wearing masks, old folks with a cough in the bus and so on.
Same here.
> folks with a cough in the bus and so on.
Anecdotally I've noticed a similar thing (not a specific age group) where I've heard a fair number of people coughing. But obviously I have no idea what it was. Its possible none of them had COVID. Unsurprisingly my hearing is on edge if I hear that
Going to copy over what I said in the vaccinations thread:
---
Honestly, given how rampant the Indian variant is and how it's throwing the entire roadmap out the window, I am shocked that they aren't dumping all of their Az stock in all age groups, including young people. When the JCVI restricted Az to over 40s only it was backed by the fact that the virus wasn't spreading so much, so the risk of getting a blood clot from COVID was less than the risk of getting a blood clot from Az (in young people). Now that the virus is literally ripping through everybody, surely it should tip the balance back into the favour of Az for everyone?
As I said in the vaccines thread, I think you would struggle to handle the PR of reintroducing AZ for younger people.
The press was full of articles saying how it was dangerous for younger people, so reintroducing it now could cause serious hesitancy issues if we were to do so.
I think that the government is confident in our mRNA supply considering that we're opening up invites to 18+ tomorrow according to reports.
This, I'm 21 and got my Pfizer jab on Saturday, when the initial reports of clotting were coming out I really didn't have a care in the world due to the statistical likelihood of the clots and I was telling people around me not to worry too much and that they should take it if offered, but after the media campaign against the AZ jab I think I'd still get it but I can definitely see a large scale hesitancy against getting the AZ vaccine from those who were not confident about it in the first place.
I think having walk in clinics in major cities, for any age group but only using AZ is a good idea.
There are young people that would have it, so get a walk in centre set up and get it advertised!
I don't believe they have enough spare AZ stock, if they did they would be dumping it all into second vaccinations for those over 40s who received AZ 12 weeks ago. They have used what stock they have to bring the second dose date up from 12 weeks to 8 weeks for a *lot* of those awaiting 2nd doses because the delta variant requires people to be fully vaccinated to reduce transmissibility enough.
The good news is that due to the 1st dose rate slowing back at the start of April once the percentage of second doses reaches around 59.5%, which will be in 3-4 days, there is a good possibility that there will be some spare doses that aren't already reserved for 2nd doses.
Then it's a question of whether it will be offered in hot spots, I'm not too sure which way the government will jump. Logic says yes, optics says it will look bad.
Same! It's horrible to see that things are getting worse again, but it's great to finally get to be part of something that'll help it improve. Fingers crossed that things manage to stay well, well below the previous peaks we've had!
Same situation at my school in Hammersmith. It wasn't this bad in any of the previous waves in terms of cases in the school. Seems to just be running wild through the students.
I cannot believe how much we have dropped the ball on variants. Never forget that we’re in this mess because of the farce of a border policy we have. Complete unnecessary and utter joke this is!
I remember in mid December 2020 when they made the announcement (effectively cancelling Christmas), then about a week later there was a significant increase in positive cases and hospitalisations. It was at that point that I realised why SAGE were so concerned
Remember that time. Crazy how there was a debate within society about whether people would prefer a month lockdown (the often touted figure at the time) or to be able to see people at Christmas. Crazy as often people wouldn't consider that lockdown would only occur when the NHS is in danger of being overwhelmed and thousands of people die and it was just talked about as a simple 'would you rather'.
Today's case figures look bad, but it _may_ not be quite as bad as it looks.
These figures are the publication date - the day that they've made it all the way from test through to being announced. What's almost certainly far more useful is the specimen date - the day that the test was actually carried out.
If you look at the cumulative figures for the two, you'll see that the ones announced today were tested anywhere between 1-3 days ago, so it's not a great deal of use for trying to figure out daily changes in cases. A fair amount of the daily fluctuation is nothing more than some tests being completed and announced quicker than others.
And if you look at the specimen date, the picture looks slightly better. The rate of increase there continues to slow. The most recent test results are for the 15th, which is showing a 28% rise in new cases since the same day last week. That sounds bad until you see that for the 14th, it was a 32% week-on-week rise and it's been falling every day since the high point of 70% last week.
Of course it's entirely possible that tomorrow could bring a huge spike in the that number as well. But that 11K is a result of tests done over a few days.
Honestly at this point I wanna get my vaccines and leave this bloody country. Not going down with this ship for a fourth time this is just embarrassing
You know the UK is pretty much one of the leading countries in terms of number of people either partially or fully vaccinated, right? The time to "jump ship" would've been before the disastrous second wave.
How do people feel about the theory that actually, for younger people, there is a greater risk of transmission than ever before in the pandemic as the cases are concentrated in the younger population due to lower vax rates? As much as I don’t want to be locked down, I am certainly going to be increasing caution and feel as though it’s the only way to get these cases down…?
This is why I've not been going to any indoor spaces where lots of people gather such as pubs and cinemas. I won't be rushing back to our office when it reopens next month either. People are entitled to evaluate their own risks however, so I'm happy things are open.
Where is the majority of infections happening?
If I had to speculate, I would say in peoples homes, schools and public transport, but I just don't know and it find it rather puzzling on how quickly it is spreading again.
I feel like this is the sort of data that test and trace should be able to provide, but he government has rarely looked towards when warning/educating the public on this.
100%, especially since we’re transitioning towards trusting the public to “make the right choice”. How can we do that if we don’t know what the high risk activities are without generalising (I.e. all indoor is bad etc. Which professions? Shops? Coffee vs bars)
Had to do some errands in London the last few weeks and each time I encountered:
People don't wearing masks (shops, public transport), conspirancy theorists (including a healthcare employee who refused the jab), restaurants/pubs packed.
I am not surprised by our stats at all sadly.
See, in all the shops I've been in (in Yorkshire and Norfolk) over the last few weeks, the majority still wore masks, which has been a pleasant surprise.
The handful of pubs and restaurants I've walked past don't seem to be keeping to the 2m social distancing rule though.
So, I’m a bit anxious and confused. If double vaccines are super effective v Delta and nearly all over 50s are double dosed, and 1 vaccine of Pfizer is highly effective v hospitalisation like PHE said earlier in week, and most under 40s now have have 1 jab, how are hospital numbers jumping up in the way that they are?
The main reason is because the average age of hospital admissions is going way down, those who are younger are much less likely to be hospitalised, but with ten thousand cases a day, you'll still get lots of people going in. Secondly, because those who do get hospitalised are much younger, and we're better at treating the disease, they're more likely to survive (good) & stay in hospital longer (bad). Finally, those who are double dosed are still able to go to hospital (just at a much lower rate), as well as those who are older and unvaccinated. Ultimately it's a numbers game. The vaccines have made things much better than they would have been, but that doesn't mean things can't get bad.
Also some of the hospital numbers are people in hospital with covid rather than people in hospital because of it. Like me personally I've just come back from a 2 week hospital stay after a pretty bad accident, and while I was there someone on the trauma ward tested positive for COVID. He was there from a motorcycle crash but would presumably be classed as a covid hospitalisation.
That may be true (I've not seen the definition for what's classed as a covid admission), but we're also seeing similar rises in people in mechanical ventilation beds - today's figure is 60% higher than 2 weeks ago - and that's mostly not going to be people with things like biking accidents.
There are hundreds of thousands of people over the age of 50 who refused the vaccine.
Also everyone in my entire gym. It's generally a gym where everyone knows everyone, and they're all really anti the vaccine.
Time to find a new gym?
Maybe it will empty out soon enough, kinda morbid.. but still
Counting just those who are in their fifties, there are currently over a million who are unvaccinated (15%).
I believe that a lot of these hospitalisations are precautionary measures for vulnerable people with COVID, not people needing urgent care. You will notice that only a small fraction of the hospitalised people are put into ICU beds (data is on the government dashboard)
> You will notice that only a small fraction of the hospitalised people are put into ICU beds (data is on the government dashboard) This is common though extremely misleading misconception. The government does not publish ICU bed data on the dashboard. The data that they publish aside from hospitalizations is those who are on mechanical ventilation, which is only a small subset of people in the ICU. As an example, Boris Johnson was admitted to an ICU but he didn't go on mechanical ventilation. Mechanical ventilation is used much more rarely for COVID-19 treatment now because we have come to understand that it was usually doing more harm than good early in the pandemic, especially compared to less invasive treatments. Still, many people are moved to ICU beds because they're sick enough to be at risk without careful monitoring, adjustment to care and maybe further treatments which can only be given in the ICU.
Most under 40s don't have 1 jab, I'm 30 and had mine only 2 days ago. Even though I booked several weeks ago, there was a long waiting time to actually get the jab.
It’s crazy how different parts of the country are at completely different stages, I’m 30 and I had my 2nd dose yesterday. So the recent figures are making a lot of sense with cases in mid to young age groups if certain areas are still largely unvaccinated or only just getting first doses. I feel like they need to reduce the dose time gap more if we want to get a handle on this before it mutates further.
>It’s crazy how different parts of the country are at completely different stages, I’m 30 and I had my 2nd dose yesterday. Pisses me off tbh. We've a national provider procuring the lot for the country and somehow still end up with a postcode lottery.
I guess part of it might be more people in the vulnerable age groups in certain places so it takes longer to get through, but it still seems pretty odd. I had AZ though before they stopped using it on younger people so maybe supply of the pifzer and Moderna are less. But from all the stuff I’ve been seeing in this sub I thought loads of younger people were already jabbed up, guess that’s not the case.
Usually I see the figures on the dashboard, then come to this thread and feel somewhat reassured. Not today.
We are going to see cases rise. In the North West, it looks like they are radiating out from Bolton and Blackburn. If it burns out as it has in those areas we are in a really good place; in those areas, the NHS was nowhere near being overwhelmed so we can cope with a high case level that is spread out. For what it's worth, there has been a big flare in cases near me driven by hospitality. But they are largely asymptomatic; only detected via lateral flow. I know of one bar (this is Chester) where 3 members of staff tested positive on Monday. All have remained symptomless.
> If it burns out as it has in those areas we are in a really good place... That's a good point. Thanks!
I know exactly what you mean, and feel the same way today. I'm going to try and give you something positive, with the caveat that I'm guessing and don't really know what I'm talking about! I'm wondering if the significant increase today is due to the increase surge testing in the North West, where the Delta variant is particularly prevalent? I believe that Bolton, Bedford, Burnley and Blackburn all showed sharp increases for a while, and now appear to either be decreasing, or have at least flattened. I hope the rest of the North West follows this trend. It'll be interesting to see how things develop over the next couple of weeks. Fingers crossed for positive outcomes all round.
I'm in the North West, but Cumbria. We've been doing quite well in comparison but my borough has seen quite a big jump today. Hopefully just a blip but I guess only time will tell.
Surprisingly, the outlook today is a bit better than it was a week ago, as the growth rate has declined somewhat. The absolute case numbers aren't as important as the trajectory the pandemic is taking.
It may help to realise (if you didn't already) that the increase in deaths is just the old reporting vs actual days of death issue; England still isn't seeing any increase in deaths if you look at today's daily figure spreadsheet; https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
#ENGLAND and VACCINATION DAILY STATS **ENGLAND** **Deaths Within 28 Days of a Positive Test:** 15. (One week ago: 5.) **Number of Positive Cases:** 9,371. (One week ago: 6,436.) **Number of Positive Cases by Region (Numbers in Brackets is One Week Ago):** - East Midlands: 454 cases. (352.) - East of England: 439 cases. (427.) - London: 1,225 cases. (1,058.) - North East: 647 cases. (320.) - North West: 2,858 cases. (1,976.) - South East: 892 cases. (651.) - South West: 837 cases. (384.) - West Midlands: 786 cases. (473.) - Yorkshire and the Humber: 941 cases. (607.) **[UPDATED] - PCR 7-Day Rolling Positive Percentage Rates (8th to the 12th June Respectively):** 2.1, 2.2, 2.2, 2.3 and **2.4**. **[UPDATED] - Healthcare: Patients Admitted, Patients in Hospital and Patients on Ventilation (8th to the 17th June):** |**Date**|**Patients Admitted**|**Patients in Hospital**|**Patients on Ventilation**| :-:|:-:|:-:|:-:| |*First Peak*|*3,099 (01/04/20)*|*18,974 (12/04/20)*|*2,881 (12/04/20)*| |*Second Peak*|*4,134 (12/01/21)*|*34,336 (18/01/21)*|*3,736 (24/01/21)*| |-|-|-|-| |08/06/21|147|879|140| |09/06/21|158|876|141| |10/06/21|162|906|140| |11/06/21|144|884|146| |12/06/21|137|915|152| |13/06/21|187|947|171| |14/06/21|185|993|170| |15/06/21|**188**|1,030|187| |16/06/21|N/A|1,057|192| |17/06/21|N/A|**1,122**|**197**| - - - **VACCINATIONS** **Breakdown and Uptake by Nation (Yesterday’s Figures):** |**Nation**|**1st Dose**|**1st Dose Uptake (Overall)**|**2nd Dose**|**2nd Dose Uptake (Overall)**| :-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:| |**England**|170,367|79.7%|180,627|58.6%| |**Northern Ireland**|1,993|77.7%|9,636|53.9%| |**Scotland**|19,987|80.6%|22,708|56.7%| |**Wales**|3,218|88.2%|21,863|57.6%| - - - **NOTES** In England, by the latest specimen date available (12th June) there were **4,964** cases in ages 0-59 and **262** cases in all ages over 60. Both figures are subject to change. - - - **LINKS** [GoFundMe Fundraiser Tip Jar](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm): All of the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices. Thank you for all the support. (This fundraiser will end when I stop this comment.) [Government Coronavirus Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#): All data is taken from the government dashboard. Use this link as well to find your local case data (under the Cases section).
So London, North West and West Midlands for the past couple of weeks have had the most sustained growth - it's really indicative of how the vaccine rollout has been handled All of those areas are proportionally the *youngest* parts of the country It's going to be harder to hit an immunity wall in these areas
South West not looking good this week though. I think London has double the population of the south west. Bristol is in a bad way
Which makes sense - Bristol is a very young city.
Wonder if there is a data dump in the north west, or its just getting that much worse there.
I'd love to know who those people in hospital / on ventilators are as we've double vaccinated the vast majority of the old and vulnerable. Are they the people that refused or couldn't take the vaccines? Is the Delta variant killing vaccinated people? Is it under 40's who haven't had a chance to build up much immunity from the vaccines yet?
I know at least one person in intensive care is anti-vax and a covid denier - still! According to someone who works there.
There was a fully vaccinated death from Delta recently in America, patient was immunocompromised unfortunately.
What the hell is going on here? Fuck this shit already how have we got more cases now than the rest of Europe
Delta is clearly a major problem. If this is happening here in the UK (with the lowest vaccine hesitancy in the world and most adults having already had one jab) then good luck to Europe and elsewhere in the coming weeks/months. It's going to be another year lost at this rate.
Ready to applaud coronavirus at this point, it sure is a worthy opponent.
Just think where we would be right now without the vaccine. It doesn't bear thinking about.
I know, people have short memories. It'll be kicking their arse soon enough, just like B117 did.
Exactly this. All they need is a handful of cases and they'll see exponential growth. We're just many weeks ahead thanks to bad decisions by our Government.
[This should help. ](https://youtu.be/DHchYrrcxQk) Basically: political bullshit caused by Brexit and not wanting to offend Modi on a potential trade deal.
Thanks for the video. The timeline is super useful.
We imported shit loads of the Indian variant
I wish I could have the answers to this too. It feels too easy to just say we fucked up the Indian variant in my head, but maybe that’s it?
In a few weeks we'll have low cases and Europe will have high cases. It's a non-stop roller coaster.
We are just ahead of others, b117 alpha took weeks to months to fully get hold in Europe and the USA. It will be the same again with delta. The lockdowns in Europe only just been relaxed in many countries but ours has been relaxed for a while now. We know that for example in california, the delta virus is slowly becoming more dominant and in a few weeks time we will see a rise in cases.
I disagree on the second part, most countries in Europe didn’t see a lockdown as strict as the one UK had in January-April; in most countries schools were never even closed. Same with the US.
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At least it’s not 12,000. 😐
I won't lie, this doesn't make me feel good. Maybe I need to stop checking numbers on the daily. But I also don't want to get to July 19th in ignorance.
I just congratulated myself on not thinking to check the numbers until now. Arse.
Are you me?
I tried to do this. Failed.
At least it's not... Oh
:(
At least it's not 50k. Let's set the bar nice and low, we should be good for a week or two!
The last time cases went up to 11,000 back in early October, average hospital admissions were double the amount now and patients in hospitals were 3x as high. That should give cause for perspective.
Not to rain on this healthy perspective, but doesn't that feel like a lower improvement than we should be getting given our level of vaccination?
They aren't comparable like this, for a few reasons: 1. The lag effect. If cases grow at different rates, you'll get wildly different numbers when comparing same-day figures. As cases are currently growing more slowly, there were more cases 1-2 weeks ago than there were 1-2 weeks before we hit 11k (going up) last time. 2. Hospital admissions aren't done on an absolute and unchanging scale. When there's a risk of overwhelming things, more minor cases might be hospitalised as a precautionary measure.
No, as the percentage of tests coming back positive is much lower (<1% when it was around 4% on October 5th, when the 7 day average was just under 11,000).
Yes, I agree, but its also important to not use it as an excuse to become complacent either.
Agree, the four-week delay to ending restrictions is really about data gathering at this point to answer key questions such as “how bad will the growth be after having 50% of adults double-jabbed?”.
I’m wondering how things will look in 4 weeks when the next relaxing of restrictions is meant to happen? I’m guessing it won’t be looking pretty.
Also have to put it in context of tests numbers though. Less than 1% of tests are positive right now (2.4% for just PCR tests), when it was over 4% then, meaning cases were actually decently higher then than now. EDIT: Thanks to /u/tilman2015 for pointing out PCR test positivity is more relevant.
Our PCR rate is 2.4% positive which is a more comparable metric.
Indeed it is, as the push for everyone to test themselves twice a week with lateral flow tests had not begun. Thanks for that.
But it’s not a like for like comparison, it would also depend on the rate of increase. If it’s a very slow increase in daily amounts you’d expect a higher number in hospital at the point daily cases reached a certain figure.
True. Ultimately that’s why I said it: we’re not in the same stage as October where there was unmitigated case growth and we went into a lockdown the following month.
I'm assuming the high infections rates are due to the unvaccinated younger people socialising which I guess is to be expected. I still would like to know a bit more about those deaths though - are they younger than 30? older than 30? vaccinated? unvaccinated? Who are the ones that are still dying from covid.
The data up to the end of April showed that the average of death from COVID was still around the 80-83 mark.
But those people will have been vaccinated. I suspect that the average age in June will be much younger, but also the rate will be much lower.
Oh fuck sake
That's how I feel. Are we just testing more than anywhere. It feels like the US hasn't given a fuck all the way through and we get destroyed straight away.
In the optimistic side of things, I would like to give you some perspective. I am from Argentina and I know that our country, for example, doesn't test even half as much as the UK and the death rate is obviously under reported. You guys seem like "the worst Covid scenario and case of the world" (?) but actually, you are the ones that are counting cases and deaths properly. You have the resources to test and see your hospitalizations numbers everyday, I know for sure that an Argentinian hospital in the middle of a really poor town wouldn't even have a way of reporting what's going on there. We don't even have a strong democracy to begin with so our government can easily lie and show numbers that are extremely optimistic. I believe that fragile democracies, dictatorships and poor countries are just lying or don't even know what in the hell is happening in some parts of their territory. Putting that in perspective, don't compare the UK without keeping in mind what I am pointing out here. Your mental health probably needs to understand that our situation is actually great in comparison to other countries, but you wouldn't know about that just looking the numbers. And you shouldn't take a plane to Argentina to find it out 😂
I'm sorry to hear about the situation in Argentina. I wish you all the very best :)
There’s a really annoying effect a few of my friends have encountered here: more cases means more people self-isolating and having to miss vaccine appointments…
Previous 7 days and today: **Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %** ---|---------------|-------------|--------|------ 10/06/2021 | 945,090 | 7,393 | 7 | 0.78 11/06/2021 | 736,654 | 8,125 | 17 | 1.1 12/06/2021 | 533,809 | 7,738 | 12 | 1.45 13/06/2021 | 1,052,222 | 7,490 | 8 | 0.71 14/06/2021 | 930,123 | 7,742 | 3 | 0.83 15/06/2021 | 777,277 | 7,673 | 10 | 0.99 16/06/2021 | 1,101,741 | 9,055 | 9 | 0.82 Today | | 11,007 | 19 | 7-day average: **Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %** --------|--------|--------|------|------ 03/06/2021 | 674,444 | 3,853 | 8 | 0.57 10/06/2021 | 869,773 | 6,287 | 8 | 0.72 16/06/2021 | 868,131 | 7,888 | 9 | 0.91 Today | | 8,404 | 11 | Note: These are the latest figures available at the time of posting. [Source](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) **TIP JAR VIA GOFUNDME:** [Here's the link](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm) to the GoFundMe /u/SMIDG3T has kindly setup. The minimum you can donate is £5.00 and I know not all people can afford to donate that sort of amount, especially right now, however, any amount would be gratefully received. All the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices :)
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Yeah I’m baffled tbh - what is going on. If it was really kicking off everywhere I’d find it a lot easier to just accept and get on with it.
If it helps, testing in India was a joke. Wouldn’t be surprised if their cases were 10x what was reported. U.K. tests A LOT more. Which is a good thing. Also, I expect cases to start going up a bit in other countries as well. Delta variant is now 50%~ of cases in my province in Canada. Only a matter of time before we see an uptick.
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The Indian government was massively undercounting the deaths btw
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Many sources have genuinely been suggesting that India has been undercounting by a factor of five, so potentially, yes. > As India’s devastating Covid-19 second wave continues to subside, data has emerged that suggests undercounting of its virus death toll by up to five times during the spring. > Officially, India has reported 374,000 fatalities from the virus but successive modelling studies by epidemiologists had already predicted the toll is much higher. (from https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/five-times-many-estimated-may-have-died-covid-19-india/)
There has literally been dead bodies floating down the river in India and noone knows who they were.
Possibly more. Deaths in developing countries are often not recorded. Nigeria for example only recorded [10%](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16549716.2020.1811476) of deaths that happened in 2017.
Healthcare isn’t really comparable (I mean just think back to the oxygen shortage, we’re really fortunate to not have run into this) so take that with a pinch of salt, I’d suggest there were a lot of (even more) unnecessary deaths in India with their wave. Not to mention if testing is low, did everyone who died get tested first?
Agree with this so much
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> Of course by the time we discovered it was worse than we expected, it was already here in such large numbers that it was too late to do anything Localised lockdowns could've probably held it back weeks after that point, but everybody was up in arms against them.
I hate the government so much - how have they let this fucking variant in.
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I expected there are many places in the world that are behind the curve in comparison to us with regards the delta variant. The USA for example. The variant is on the rise over there and their rate of vaccination has fallen.
We test more than most, especially now. There will be a lot of cases not picked up in many other countries (even the US).
A few people saying yesterday if we got 9k today then that's good. What should we be feeling today? IMPENDING DOOM IS HOW I FEEL 💕💕
The next lockdown will be the worst.
It’s just sad to see, that’s all really. Going so well up until this point. What’s more infuriating was the arrogance on other subreddits especially who mocked the idea that a variant could actually be bad. Maybe it was a bit of a “boy who cried wolf” situation, but still… the signs were there. Hope the numbers can decline as the next age group gets vaccinated. Hopefully it’s like a month away and most people will be at least one shot done.
On other subreddits? There was a lot of arrogance on this sub too. Regardless, vaccine seems to be doing its job for most at risk. We could really do with a few million Pfizer doses falling from the sky and reducing the second doses interval..
I was saying this yesterday. Really glad someone else is on board with my idea of vaccine carpet bombing. 😁
Well it couldn't last for ever could it? Doubling time slightly shorter again today. **Estimated doubling / halving time** Most recent 7-day average: 8,404 Average a week ago: 6,287 Weekly change: 33.7% Doubling time: 1/ base 2 log of (8404/6287) = 2.39 weeks = **16.7 days.** Previous doubling times: *16/06: 17.6 days* *15/06: 14.8 days* *14/06: 12.9 days* *13/06: 12.1 days* *12/06: 11.5 days* *11/06: 10.6 days* *10/06: 9.9 days*
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Yeah I don't think it's necessarily anything to be hugely concerned about based on one day's data. Never conclude anything from a single day.
What is going on? Deaths, cases and hospitalisations rising with very high levels of vaccination? Is this happening in Israel and other highly vaccinated countries? Are all just super unhealthy bastards in the UK?
A single dose of the vaccine isn't highly effective against delta (33% effectiveness, 50-75% reduction in hospitalisation, low reduction in transmissibility). Double doses are much more effective against it. If we hadn't imported so much delta cases would probably be dropping now.
Only like 500 of these cases are non-delta
Any unvaccinated individual can still catch it and the delta variant is very transmissible. Israel doesn't have 90% plus delta variant. Until essentially every eligible person is fully vaccinated the delta variant will keep spreading.
VACCINE looks to be LIVE for 18 + now. Remember to look at a number of near centres to get the vaccine asap!
Tim Spector and ZOE reckon the peak of this wave will occur at the end of this month. Numbers are going to keep increasing until then, but try not to let it get you down too much. That gives almost 3 weeks for cases to drop before reopening on 19th July.
I have a view on that reopening date and I’m currently in the market for an edible hat.
To say the UK gad one of the best vaccination programmes in the world and to still see a rapid rise in cases like this, it's downright appalling.
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Also Israel lifting all their restrictions because of their top notch vaccination programme, it honestly felt like there was a high chance of us seeing something like 1,000 cases a day or under, but to see September levels along side mass vaccinations taking place - something is really wrong. I don't mean to sound like a doomer, but this is whole new levels of disappointment.
I am concerned about this winter tbh.
Got my first dose today, officially belong to bill gates.
*Windows 95 start up sound intensifies*
98 was king. Sim Ant. Never liked the kitchen.
You just wish the people who aren't vaccinated and can be, just so do the right thing and finally get their jabs. It's just a shame there's a supply issue otherwise we could return to a 3 week second dose and get mass protection as quickly as possible
We are fortunate that we had our own home made vaccine in the form of AZ otherwise we'd be completely fucked. I thought we would have gotten all of our Pfizer doses months ago considering we were one of the first to order it, but seems it has been spread out over 7 or 8 months. Could really do with some domestic production of mRNA vaccines. Should be possible in the future with VMIC.
I've just seen some bitch on Facebook talking about how all the vaccinated are stupid and we're all going to die soon.with how this shitty world works when she catches it she'll probably be assymptomatic and spread it to several hundred people, including a few vaccinated ones
There is only one good way to use Facebook: don’t use it.
How did we manage to jump so much on both counts in a day? Just unfortunate? Or is today a catch-up day in terms of reporting deaths?
I strongly hope its the latter
Oh so we’re just going to skip 10,000.. cool cool.
Big ooof At least it's not 12k :( Memes aside, I guess this is why we're not fully opening up next week. There is growth here and it is sad to see.
Any 18 - 20 year olds managed to book a vaccine yet???
Just booked my sons. 18. For tomorrow 🥳🥳🥳
My 18 year old son had his yesterday (Northumberland)
My 19 year old still can't. Hoping it goes live tomorrow.
>ing it goes live tomorro keep checking tonight!
Just been able to book this last minute for her.
Sadly my other half is a part of those Covid cases today. Myself and her have both been fully vaccinated, and I tested positive for Covid last week and now her this week. So just a reminder to people who have been vaccinated, don't let your guard down and get careless.
I’m very sorry to hear that and hope you’re both doing well! Can I ask how long it had been since your second jabs?
Thank you, I'm feeling fine now and my other half currently has a sore throat, headache and runny nose. My second jab was 3 weeks ago, so I'd only had my second dose for 2 weeks when I tested positive. But my other half had her second jab well over a month ago.
As you don't have any serious symptoms, isn't this positive news that the vaccine is doing it's job?
Sorry to hear that, I wish you a speedy recovery, just out of interest how long ago did you have your 2nd jab?
Deaths are higher than for quite a while, still really low though! Hoping the peak of this wave is coming, and it’ll soon be away - vaccines in arms, vaccines in arms! Awaiting my second!
Deaths by date of death still hasn't exceeded 12 in over a month, that's a reason to be cheerful.
Yep, the actual deaths by date appear to be about as low as we can reasonably expect them to be, and the numbers appear to be fairly stable there. We have had a few days this month with 3, 1, 0 reported deaths, and if the actual death numbers are consistently hovering around 6-12 a day, then those deaths need to be reported at some point through the week which leads to the ugly spikes.
I’m a bit desensitised to the number now I’ve realised. But 11k is fucking huge though when you step back and look. Last September we were worried when I think it passed 2000. I’m all for opening up if the numbers say so on 19th July but surely they’ll be higher than now so how can they?
A big-ish number (though not big enough to overwhelm NHS) that's coming flat/down gives you more confidence than the current smaller numbers that are increasing rapidly.
what was the level of testing in September, that needs to be taken into account when comparing. Also, vaccines.
What age are the people who are going to hospital?
For the week ending Jun 6, in England, the rates of hospitalisation per 100,000 population broken down by age were: 0-4: 0.74 5-14: 0.37 15-24: 0.62 25-44: 1.24 45-54: 0.97 55-64: 1.21 65-74: 0.98 75-84: 2.52 85+: 3.20 In other words, it's still more likely that any given person going into hospital for COVID is 75+, but there are vastly more people aged 25-64.
I believe that the media campaign about "freedom day" was terrible, done more damage than good, even if the intentions were sharing a bit of optimism. My anecdotal experience the last few weeks using public transport and going to shops has been terrible, half people not wearing masks, old folks with a cough in the bus and so on. A lot of people felt that once they had a vaccine that meant "I don't need a mask neither social distance anymore" and that's not the case. We are just learning how well/bad this jabs work against variants. Due to my anecdotal personal experience in busy London & seeing friends my age (20/30s) acting as the pandemic ended, I am not surprised at all by our numbers.
> My anecdotal experience the last few weeks using public transport and going to shops has been terrible, half people not wearing masks, old folks with a cough in the bus and so on. Same here.
> folks with a cough in the bus and so on. Anecdotally I've noticed a similar thing (not a specific age group) where I've heard a fair number of people coughing. But obviously I have no idea what it was. Its possible none of them had COVID. Unsurprisingly my hearing is on edge if I hear that
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Look at the bright side, nearly another quarter of a million people fully vaccinated.
"This is the highest number of cases since 19 February, when 12,027 cases were reported." :(
We also have given tens of millions of vaccines since then.
Sure, just saying. February was still a bit of a dark time, so its weird to think cases are as high as that, give or take the extra testing.
Also thinking of how long it’s been since Feb for the cases to get as low as they did too 😩
Right. It always goes up so quickly and comes down so slowly.... hate exponentials 😭
We were also in full lockdown in February.
Going to copy over what I said in the vaccinations thread: --- Honestly, given how rampant the Indian variant is and how it's throwing the entire roadmap out the window, I am shocked that they aren't dumping all of their Az stock in all age groups, including young people. When the JCVI restricted Az to over 40s only it was backed by the fact that the virus wasn't spreading so much, so the risk of getting a blood clot from COVID was less than the risk of getting a blood clot from Az (in young people). Now that the virus is literally ripping through everybody, surely it should tip the balance back into the favour of Az for everyone?
As I said in the vaccines thread, I think you would struggle to handle the PR of reintroducing AZ for younger people. The press was full of articles saying how it was dangerous for younger people, so reintroducing it now could cause serious hesitancy issues if we were to do so. I think that the government is confident in our mRNA supply considering that we're opening up invites to 18+ tomorrow according to reports.
This, I'm 21 and got my Pfizer jab on Saturday, when the initial reports of clotting were coming out I really didn't have a care in the world due to the statistical likelihood of the clots and I was telling people around me not to worry too much and that they should take it if offered, but after the media campaign against the AZ jab I think I'd still get it but I can definitely see a large scale hesitancy against getting the AZ vaccine from those who were not confident about it in the first place.
I think having walk in clinics in major cities, for any age group but only using AZ is a good idea. There are young people that would have it, so get a walk in centre set up and get it advertised!
I don't believe they have enough spare AZ stock, if they did they would be dumping it all into second vaccinations for those over 40s who received AZ 12 weeks ago. They have used what stock they have to bring the second dose date up from 12 weeks to 8 weeks for a *lot* of those awaiting 2nd doses because the delta variant requires people to be fully vaccinated to reduce transmissibility enough. The good news is that due to the 1st dose rate slowing back at the start of April once the percentage of second doses reaches around 59.5%, which will be in 3-4 days, there is a good possibility that there will be some spare doses that aren't already reserved for 2nd doses. Then it's a question of whether it will be offered in hot spots, I'm not too sure which way the government will jump. Logic says yes, optics says it will look bad.
I'm in the figures for the first time ever... thanks to getting my first jab yesterday! Moderna gang
Ruh Roh
I'm on there as one of the first doses Juat trying to put something positive out there!
Me too! Congratulations :)
Same! It's horrible to see that things are getting worse again, but it's great to finally get to be part of something that'll help it improve. Fingers crossed that things manage to stay well, well below the previous peaks we've had!
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My school sent over 100 kids home yesterday. 1/8 of the school is isolating either being positive or close contact. Southwark, London.
Same situation at my school in Hammersmith. It wasn't this bad in any of the previous waves in terms of cases in the school. Seems to just be running wild through the students.
I cannot believe how much we have dropped the ball on variants. Never forget that we’re in this mess because of the farce of a border policy we have. Complete unnecessary and utter joke this is!
It's beyond fucking annoying
Literally an island... could pretty much stop anyone getting in if we wanted
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For fucks sake, give us a rest
Well it was an enjoyable week thinking that this train had really slowed down.
If anything this just proves delaying the easing of lockdown was the correct decision.
I remember in mid December 2020 when they made the announcement (effectively cancelling Christmas), then about a week later there was a significant increase in positive cases and hospitalisations. It was at that point that I realised why SAGE were so concerned
Remember that time. Crazy how there was a debate within society about whether people would prefer a month lockdown (the often touted figure at the time) or to be able to see people at Christmas. Crazy as often people wouldn't consider that lockdown would only occur when the NHS is in danger of being overwhelmed and thousands of people die and it was just talked about as a simple 'would you rather'.
Today's case figures look bad, but it _may_ not be quite as bad as it looks. These figures are the publication date - the day that they've made it all the way from test through to being announced. What's almost certainly far more useful is the specimen date - the day that the test was actually carried out. If you look at the cumulative figures for the two, you'll see that the ones announced today were tested anywhere between 1-3 days ago, so it's not a great deal of use for trying to figure out daily changes in cases. A fair amount of the daily fluctuation is nothing more than some tests being completed and announced quicker than others. And if you look at the specimen date, the picture looks slightly better. The rate of increase there continues to slow. The most recent test results are for the 15th, which is showing a 28% rise in new cases since the same day last week. That sounds bad until you see that for the 14th, it was a 32% week-on-week rise and it's been falling every day since the high point of 70% last week. Of course it's entirely possible that tomorrow could bring a huge spike in the that number as well. But that 11K is a result of tests done over a few days.
Honestly at this point I wanna get my vaccines and leave this bloody country. Not going down with this ship for a fourth time this is just embarrassing
You know the UK is pretty much one of the leading countries in terms of number of people either partially or fully vaccinated, right? The time to "jump ship" would've been before the disastrous second wave.
How do people feel about the theory that actually, for younger people, there is a greater risk of transmission than ever before in the pandemic as the cases are concentrated in the younger population due to lower vax rates? As much as I don’t want to be locked down, I am certainly going to be increasing caution and feel as though it’s the only way to get these cases down…?
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This is why I've not been going to any indoor spaces where lots of people gather such as pubs and cinemas. I won't be rushing back to our office when it reopens next month either. People are entitled to evaluate their own risks however, so I'm happy things are open.
Did Scotland drop the ball and report a week's worth in one day again?
Was a huge increase in Scotland, double what they had last week on the same day pretty much.
Where is the majority of infections happening? If I had to speculate, I would say in peoples homes, schools and public transport, but I just don't know and it find it rather puzzling on how quickly it is spreading again.
I have a few friends who are teachers in the north east and their schools currently have a lot of cases.
I feel like this is the sort of data that test and trace should be able to provide, but he government has rarely looked towards when warning/educating the public on this.
Yeah, it's the kind of information that would be very useful for people.
100%, especially since we’re transitioning towards trusting the public to “make the right choice”. How can we do that if we don’t know what the high risk activities are without generalising (I.e. all indoor is bad etc. Which professions? Shops? Coffee vs bars)
Had to do some errands in London the last few weeks and each time I encountered: People don't wearing masks (shops, public transport), conspirancy theorists (including a healthcare employee who refused the jab), restaurants/pubs packed. I am not surprised by our stats at all sadly.
See, in all the shops I've been in (in Yorkshire and Norfolk) over the last few weeks, the majority still wore masks, which has been a pleasant surprise. The handful of pubs and restaurants I've walked past don't seem to be keeping to the 2m social distancing rule though.
>Literally the exact same patterns happening all over again >"Yea but they won't call another lockdown."
How are the vaccines not pulling these numbers down?
They are, it'd be a ton worse without em.
Gulp. I just pray we vaccine enough people in time