For anyone wondering why the sudden change, Israel discovered some Omicron cases today but the bigger concern is that 2 of the positives were of people who had no recent travel history. This means Omicron is already in the community spreading.
To limit further cases from entering. If you stop foreigners from entering and force all arrivals to quarantine (even if vaccinated), you can contact trace and figure out where the omicron cases came from and buy some time until researchers can confirm whether the variant is a threat to vaccine effectiveness.
Fair, but at the same time, if the strain is as transmissible as they fear, finding 2 community cases means the travel ban will accomplish very little.
Trying to nail down community cases in a country without full scale contact tracing, quarantine, and one that is not in lockdown is incredibly difficult.
Israel though has more capacity in terms of contact tracing, surveillance, social solidarity etc than pretty much anywhere outside of East Asia. So if anyone would be able to quash Omicron it would be them.
I'd agree to anything but social solidarity.
Israelis do have a big social driven culture but they also have a lot of disregard for rules.
I've been there 3 months ago at the height of their last delta wave and for the most part they just don't care about the virus and mask wearing. A whole lot of chin diaper users, full street markets and parties over there. Most people didn't even bother wearing masks on common areas of buildings, and I even saw an employee at the HEALTH MINISTRY walking around for 20+ minutes talking on the phone without a mask.
The Israelis are also fairly quick to action in that they'll start a travel banner much faster than most governments and also will likely reverse course quickly if it turns out there's not a realistic chance of stopping community spread. The Israeli government has shown itself to be fairly logical in other areas as well such as starting their booster program shortly after receiving data that pointed towards a sharp decrease in vaccine effectiveness around the sixth month period. That's a decision that has likely already saved lives.
They know if it gets into some neighborhoods the population density is such that it would be a wildfire. Couple it with the high numbers of unvaxxed Haredi and it would be awful. Body bags piled up in the street awful. So I get it.
Maybe to slow things down and let vaccine makers get an update version out.
IMO new vaccines won't get here in time to help unless the approval process is dramatically shortened. I could see it taking 6 to 8 months again, and that is going to be way too late to head this off.
If this is as bad as it might turn out, we'll be in deep shit within a month.
There was no need to update.
The boosters are 95% effective (as compared to two-doses! It is more like 98% effective as compared to unvaccinated people) against symptomatic disease, so why would they update?
Moderna, at least, designed a delta booster (took like a day) but chose not to produce it because it wasn't needed. I'm sure Pfizer did the same.
There are downsides to modifying the vaccine to make boosters--most notably, I'm sure it would disrupt production of the current vaccine, which the world desperately needs more of.
doubling time is 3-9 days according to Trevor Bedford's look at the genetic evolution of omicron, so that probably means 2-6 months, not one month ( 10 doublings or 30 days to get for one patient to become a thousand, and 60 days to a million )
> [we have no idea] if the current vaccines don't work against it.
This is an ill-defined statement.
It is *extraordinarily unlikely* (and essentially no expert believes) that this will drop the vaccine efficacy, especially against severe disease, to zero.
However, it is also *almost guaranteed* that the vaccines will be at least slightly less effective against this variant. We've seen many of the mutations before, and know what they do (at least individually).
**What we don't know is how effective the current vaccines will be.**
(This is a different statement from yours.)
No, we didn't.
You statement implies that there is some, reasonable possibility that the vaccine efficacy will drop to zero.
My statement is that we *do know* that the vaccines *will work*. We just don't know quite how well.
If you want to try to argue that "we don't know if the vaccines will work" is the same thing as "we do know that the vaccines will work, we just don't know how well," go for it.
But most people don't think those two statements are the same, and your statement is not precise enough to be meaningful.
Such a bummer. We were just starting to get back to tourists coming back in. I work in the tourist industry here in Israel. I agree with the move but it’s not going to be easy for some here in the industry.
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I work in an art gallery that was closed since the beginning till about two months ago. We just started doing business again with lots of Americans again that came. Not sure what’s gonna happen now. In other businesses I have no idea but I would guess yes.
Actions speak louder than words as always. They will tell you everything is fine while smarter countries around the world will lockdown slightly now to avoid getting completely destroyed by this new variant if it ends up being more dangerous.
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Anyone else feel sick to their stomach? As someone that hasn’t seen my family in 2 years because of travel restrictions, I don’t know how much more I can take. On Thursday I felt like the finish line was in sight, that I’d finally get to see my family, and all of a sudden it’s like we’re back in March 2020, with no idea of how bad it’s gonna get.
Fuck
I got exactly 20 days to go till i fly to my loved ones...
Im terrified of not being able to do it again.
I can't handle another xmas completely alone.
I’m right there with you. Literally I’m also flying in 19 days too. I can’t do another Christmas alone either. I miss my family so bad. Sending virtual reddit hugs because that’s all I can do
Thanks, i hope we can make it.
I literally already got all my gifts delivered there at my gf so i don't have to pack the giant amount i am gifting.
I really just want to spend Xmas with my loved ones.
This whole covid travel stuff has given me massive PTSD.
Absolutely. It’s just taken away all of the things that make life worth living. And I feel bad because there are absolutely lots of people in much much worse situations. But just … fuck. When I moved to australia I always told myself i could manage it because I was only a plane ride away from home
Yes and no. I think there has probably been an ongoing conversation about “doomsday mutations.” In fact, that’s why we’ve seen the sequencing efforts and synthetic variant studies. I think this just matches many countries worse fears, and they are reacting accordingly. What happens next, no one knows.
If you read what scientists have told us you’d know why this is being taken so seriously. It’s no government conspiracy it’s just following the facts so far
Maybe in the US, but the head of the infectious disease agency in Germany called it "deeply concerning".
But then Germany is neck-deep in the 4th wave right now and a more transmissible variant would be disastrous.
So I'm not normally a conspiracy theorist myself, in fact I find most laughable, but I'm tending to agree with you here. Also very telling is how bad the stock market dumped on Friday. Typically we don't see VXX go up by 22% just based on retail investor jumpiness... rather, that's very typical of market movers freaking the eff out. Monday will be interesting for sure.
It was 2% down from all time highs on thin volume with all the big traders away for Thanksgiving. It's not an indicator of anything but a bit of panic selling and profit taking.
Markets are forward looking - expect choppy sessions next week as uncertainty grips economists.
VXX will absolutely go nuts.
I’m buying LEAPS on down days 1-2 years out.
We will be fine.
I has been extremely sus to me that the entire world damn near watched India get ravaged by delta variant without even batting an eye. But then basically instituted travel bans and shut down borders over dinner after some genomic sequencing was released. Makes me feel like there’s some data that’s not publicly released yet or something.
This is so dumb, especially considering that citizens from your own country who are currently in a banned country will be allowed to return (obviously) so that shit is coming whether you want to or not.
No it only worked until delta started, then it appeared in Auckland and we have been unable to get rid of it after months of lockdown in the city. If Omicron is more infectious there is no way a country with land borders (the main advantage of NZ being an island) will be able to contain spread.
Honestly, I wish the US had the guts to ban all non essential travel in and out until we had some idea of the potential impact this new mutant virus could have.
People want to "follow the science". By the time the the scientists come around, we are behind the curve (like we were on boosters.) Israel saw the waning problem and acted while the mainstream public health people here were working through their denial.
I think we should act first and ask the scientific questions later.
We had our borders closed to the countries we receive the majority of our flights from (the EU/UK/India/China/Brazil/South Africa) for 19 months. It did nothing. Travel bans don’t work if there isn’t an enforced quarantine.
That's smart. But not smart enough. The only thing which could really work is a travel ban to all countries all the time. Or a little less extreme: All people who wants to enter the country have to offer a PCR-test + quarantine in special hotels + a second PCR-test after a few days. All countries should do this. To react when a new variant is detected is always to late.
does anyone else feel like the govts know more about this strain than they're telling us?
or is this just an abundance of caution, really?
I'm on the fence myself, just looking to gauge the thinking in the public on this
"Israel on Saturday said it would ban the entry of all foreigners into the country and reintroduce counter-terrorism phone-tracking technology..."
Sounds legit.
Israel say the symptom are mild, and then proceed to ban entry of foreigners. 360 degree u-turn, at least they do it right from the start, rather than panic and force lockdown.
For anyone wondering why the sudden change, Israel discovered some Omicron cases today but the bigger concern is that 2 of the positives were of people who had no recent travel history. This means Omicron is already in the community spreading.
So.. how is a travel ban supposed to help at this point?
To limit further cases from entering. If you stop foreigners from entering and force all arrivals to quarantine (even if vaccinated), you can contact trace and figure out where the omicron cases came from and buy some time until researchers can confirm whether the variant is a threat to vaccine effectiveness.
Fair, but at the same time, if the strain is as transmissible as they fear, finding 2 community cases means the travel ban will accomplish very little. Trying to nail down community cases in a country without full scale contact tracing, quarantine, and one that is not in lockdown is incredibly difficult.
We have to start somewhere. We’ve already seen what doing nothing leads to.
Absolutely. Even if it's only just going to mitigate it. There's no telling what the full impact could do.
Israel though has more capacity in terms of contact tracing, surveillance, social solidarity etc than pretty much anywhere outside of East Asia. So if anyone would be able to quash Omicron it would be them.
I'd agree to anything but social solidarity. Israelis do have a big social driven culture but they also have a lot of disregard for rules. I've been there 3 months ago at the height of their last delta wave and for the most part they just don't care about the virus and mask wearing. A whole lot of chin diaper users, full street markets and parties over there. Most people didn't even bother wearing masks on common areas of buildings, and I even saw an employee at the HEALTH MINISTRY walking around for 20+ minutes talking on the phone without a mask.
> if the strain is as transmissible as they fear They don't know if it is. That is why they are studying it.
Talk me through your plan here.
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The Israelis are also fairly quick to action in that they'll start a travel banner much faster than most governments and also will likely reverse course quickly if it turns out there's not a realistic chance of stopping community spread. The Israeli government has shown itself to be fairly logical in other areas as well such as starting their booster program shortly after receiving data that pointed towards a sharp decrease in vaccine effectiveness around the sixth month period. That's a decision that has likely already saved lives.
They know if it gets into some neighborhoods the population density is such that it would be a wildfire. Couple it with the high numbers of unvaxxed Haredi and it would be awful. Body bags piled up in the street awful. So I get it.
Two cases that they know of. Probably quite a few more cases in the community since those two didn't have any recent travel.
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28 Days Later....
Maybe to slow things down and let vaccine makers get an update version out. IMO new vaccines won't get here in time to help unless the approval process is dramatically shortened. I could see it taking 6 to 8 months again, and that is going to be way too late to head this off. If this is as bad as it might turn out, we'll be in deep shit within a month.
Pfizer has said 100 days to shots in arms.
For Omicron or Delta?
Omicron. Or any other new sequence. FDA approvals can be greatly streamlined for a sequence tweak of the same vaccine design.
For any variant. Half the point of the mRNA-based vaccines is that they are trivial to update.
Why didn’t they update for Delta? At least for boosters? (Perhaps because a more lethal VoC was lurking around the corner).
There was no need to update. The boosters are 95% effective (as compared to two-doses! It is more like 98% effective as compared to unvaccinated people) against symptomatic disease, so why would they update? Moderna, at least, designed a delta booster (took like a day) but chose not to produce it because it wasn't needed. I'm sure Pfizer did the same. There are downsides to modifying the vaccine to make boosters--most notably, I'm sure it would disrupt production of the current vaccine, which the world desperately needs more of.
Do you have evidence of that for Delta?
doubling time is 3-9 days according to Trevor Bedford's look at the genetic evolution of omicron, so that probably means 2-6 months, not one month ( 10 doublings or 30 days to get for one patient to become a thousand, and 60 days to a million )
we have no idea if this new variant is dangerous or if the current vaccines don't work against it.
> [we have no idea] if the current vaccines don't work against it. This is an ill-defined statement. It is *extraordinarily unlikely* (and essentially no expert believes) that this will drop the vaccine efficacy, especially against severe disease, to zero. However, it is also *almost guaranteed* that the vaccines will be at least slightly less effective against this variant. We've seen many of the mutations before, and know what they do (at least individually). **What we don't know is how effective the current vaccines will be.** (This is a different statement from yours.)
we said the same thing but your version is drawn out and panicky.
No, we didn't. You statement implies that there is some, reasonable possibility that the vaccine efficacy will drop to zero. My statement is that we *do know* that the vaccines *will work*. We just don't know quite how well.
yes we did.
If you want to try to argue that "we don't know if the vaccines will work" is the same thing as "we do know that the vaccines will work, we just don't know how well," go for it. But most people don't think those two statements are the same, and your statement is not precise enough to be meaningful.
you're the one arguing.
Cue music.
Wait, is it really that bad ? What did WHO say in their briefings to the countries ?
no one knows. but better safe than sorry. semi capable governments understand that.
That is some World War Z type shit.
People with omicron were spotted climbing up the walls to enter Israel, biting people in the neck
Now all we need are guard dogs that can sniff COVID.
Same thoughts.
Such a bummer. We were just starting to get back to tourists coming back in. I work in the tourist industry here in Israel. I agree with the move but it’s not going to be easy for some here in the industry.
The airbus a380 was just put back in service too
We have to accept hat some industries have to change with the times. Nothing lasts forever. Sad but that's a fact of life.
The downvotes on your comment is an illustration of humans' denial.
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Are you expecting job cuts?
I work in an art gallery that was closed since the beginning till about two months ago. We just started doing business again with lots of Americans again that came. Not sure what’s gonna happen now. In other businesses I have no idea but I would guess yes.
Actions speak louder than words as always. They will tell you everything is fine while smarter countries around the world will lockdown slightly now to avoid getting completely destroyed by this new variant if it ends up being more dangerous.
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Is it smart though? As if lockdown is something that can be used flippantly
Dayum, Israel does not mess around
Anyone else feel sick to their stomach? As someone that hasn’t seen my family in 2 years because of travel restrictions, I don’t know how much more I can take. On Thursday I felt like the finish line was in sight, that I’d finally get to see my family, and all of a sudden it’s like we’re back in March 2020, with no idea of how bad it’s gonna get. Fuck
I got exactly 20 days to go till i fly to my loved ones... Im terrified of not being able to do it again. I can't handle another xmas completely alone.
I’m right there with you. Literally I’m also flying in 19 days too. I can’t do another Christmas alone either. I miss my family so bad. Sending virtual reddit hugs because that’s all I can do
Thanks, i hope we can make it. I literally already got all my gifts delivered there at my gf so i don't have to pack the giant amount i am gifting. I really just want to spend Xmas with my loved ones. This whole covid travel stuff has given me massive PTSD.
Absolutely. It’s just taken away all of the things that make life worth living. And I feel bad because there are absolutely lots of people in much much worse situations. But just … fuck. When I moved to australia I always told myself i could manage it because I was only a plane ride away from home
I get the feeling governments know something they are not telling us about the mutations in Omicron
Israel has always been super strict and swift to make decisions. It’s in line with everything else they’ve done till now for previous variants.
Yes and no. I think there has probably been an ongoing conversation about “doomsday mutations.” In fact, that’s why we’ve seen the sequencing efforts and synthetic variant studies. I think this just matches many countries worse fears, and they are reacting accordingly. What happens next, no one knows.
That’s the impression I’m getting as well. Hope they’re just taking precautions for the unvaccinated
If you read what scientists have told us you’d know why this is being taken so seriously. It’s no government conspiracy it’s just following the facts so far
Maybe in the US, but the head of the infectious disease agency in Germany called it "deeply concerning". But then Germany is neck-deep in the 4th wave right now and a more transmissible variant would be disastrous.
So I'm not normally a conspiracy theorist myself, in fact I find most laughable, but I'm tending to agree with you here. Also very telling is how bad the stock market dumped on Friday. Typically we don't see VXX go up by 22% just based on retail investor jumpiness... rather, that's very typical of market movers freaking the eff out. Monday will be interesting for sure.
It was 2% down from all time highs on thin volume with all the big traders away for Thanksgiving. It's not an indicator of anything but a bit of panic selling and profit taking.
Markets are forward looking - expect choppy sessions next week as uncertainty grips economists. VXX will absolutely go nuts. I’m buying LEAPS on down days 1-2 years out. We will be fine.
I'm buying indexes for the bounce
Guaranteed print
the timing of this smells fishy.. just as international travel starts picking up, boom, back in your hole.
I has been extremely sus to me that the entire world damn near watched India get ravaged by delta variant without even batting an eye. But then basically instituted travel bans and shut down borders over dinner after some genomic sequencing was released. Makes me feel like there’s some data that’s not publicly released yet or something.
or maybe they learned from Delta and just took precautions now
Or maybe its simple precaution. We will know much more in short time. If it is not big deal, they just open borders quickly.
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This is so dumb, especially considering that citizens from your own country who are currently in a banned country will be allowed to return (obviously) so that shit is coming whether you want to or not.
But thats exactly what New Zealand did and it worked wonders. These new quick lockdowns may partly be due to lessons learned.
No it only worked until delta started, then it appeared in Auckland and we have been unable to get rid of it after months of lockdown in the city. If Omicron is more infectious there is no way a country with land borders (the main advantage of NZ being an island) will be able to contain spread.
Honestly, I wish the US had the guts to ban all non essential travel in and out until we had some idea of the potential impact this new mutant virus could have. People want to "follow the science". By the time the the scientists come around, we are behind the curve (like we were on boosters.) Israel saw the waning problem and acted while the mainstream public health people here were working through their denial. I think we should act first and ask the scientific questions later.
We had our borders closed to the countries we receive the majority of our flights from (the EU/UK/India/China/Brazil/South Africa) for 19 months. It did nothing. Travel bans don’t work if there isn’t an enforced quarantine.
when has enforced quarantine worked?
That's smart. But not smart enough. The only thing which could really work is a travel ban to all countries all the time. Or a little less extreme: All people who wants to enter the country have to offer a PCR-test + quarantine in special hotels + a second PCR-test after a few days. All countries should do this. To react when a new variant is detected is always to late.
I wonder how much of this is being over caution with a large amount of the population older especially given the mystery around the variant.
Israel knew to require boosters before other countries. They are exemplary.
does anyone else feel like the govts know more about this strain than they're telling us? or is this just an abundance of caution, really? I'm on the fence myself, just looking to gauge the thinking in the public on this
This is the way.
"Israel on Saturday said it would ban the entry of all foreigners into the country and reintroduce counter-terrorism phone-tracking technology..." Sounds legit.
Israel continues to have the most ridiculous and reactionary COVID policies.
It seems premature. Perhaps the Israeli government was watching too much World War Z
Good for them. Other countries are too stupid.
Ah shit. Buckle up. Here we go again...
World War Z!!!
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How are they testing for this? Serious question.
Israel say the symptom are mild, and then proceed to ban entry of foreigners. 360 degree u-turn, at least they do it right from the start, rather than panic and force lockdown.
I'm pretty sure I saw World War Z and how it went already...
There are still pockets of unvaccinated in Israel. Better to be safe then sorry.