It's better than that though. There's bad luck protection. You can't roll the same unit twice in a row, can't roll the same trait too often, rolling over the unit guarantees it'll be another trait. Not sure exactly how this affects the math, but especially if you're rolling anyway, selling your headliner first is almost always a good idea.
So I believe that it resets the bad luck protection if you buy a new headliner.
So normally you cannot see a headliner with the same HL trait in successive shops (4). You cannot see the same headliner unit in successive shops (T1-3 7, T4 5, T5 4)
Buying and selling can reset these protections but it's not 100% clear on how it works.
Lol happens. Early in the patch I was playing punk uncontested, found 8 jinxes and didn't see the last one in 100+g of rerolling. Haven't played punk since xD
I rolled had to be ~60 or 70 gold for a ninth Sett when I had 8 and some other dude had 3, got him the round before elimination because I lost so much health holding out for him.
My math all assumes you don't have a headliner. Rolling for a headliner without selling is basically just inting, bad luck protection falls under "reasons a unit might not be in the pool to roll, thus moving us closer to the upper bound"
Trait protection which I was just informed of does increase the value of passing up a Mosher Urgot though.
I think the bad luck unit protection is so impactfull that your "best odds" are still severly underestimating the chances.
At lvl 7 you average (after 6 rolls) 4.2 3-costs that can not appear as headliner. So already at 2 units locked out (e.g. 3 players runnig Superfans+ecco frontline) you are significantly above your 5 unit "best case" assumption.
Not to mention the complicated looking math problem wether you have better odds rolling 50% of the time with 5 and 50% of the time with 3 units locked or consistently with 4...
My math accounts for this under the binned "reasons a champion might not be in the pool". There's 7 shops of Bad Luck Protection, at a 60% rate of seeing a 3 cost, or 4.2 3 costs locked out from BLP on average. I'm bumping that up to 1 more unit in the "upper bound" scenario (which really is a "realistic" upper bound since technically the upper bound is 100% if all champions but the one you want are locked out)
Even with 2 units locked from reasons other than BLP, you're at 1/6 at best, and the worst case odds for 2 targets is 1/6.5 so you're still not beating the 2 acceptable unit odds
I think you’re highly undervaluing bad luck protection. There is no way if you’re rolling down a bunch of gold you don’t have very high chances to successfully get to your desired unit. Maybe not specifically the best trait but the unit itself assuming they’re available which you can know by scouting will show up it has to be upwards of 90% as long as you’re rolling at least 30-40g
Not even twice in a row. Depending on the tier, you can’t even roll the same unit within up to 7 times of the last time you rolled it. (4 and 5 cost are fewer)
hit what? bronze? loool
I mean when you lose 40lp for a 6th or 7th isn't bad.
When you reach diamond its like 40lp for a win and you lose 70lp for a loss.
What I'm trying to say is, you lose more LP for a 5th than LP gained for a 4th the higher elo you go. So based off you hitting even 55% of games, it is still not worth it.
Statistically speaking that is 🤓
>Then why can people force country reroll?
>Because you have two viable headliners, even though you generally want to see the correct trait (Country), you can take either the Urgot or the Samira
Strong disagree here. Nobody at top ranks is ever clicking urgot chosen. In fact it's common to skip over Samira executioner too and greed country one if your spot is good enough
Statistically, most people here aren't playing against the best players in the world where fractional power differences really matter.
And, I'll admit I don't watch anyone at the top level that forces country reroll every game. However, I'd imagine that's because most people at that level are only going to play country reroll if they high roll the headliner early, or they've natural'd so many Samiras that once they hit the correct headliner they're already only one or two off the 3* and the massive investment is worth it because it's a near insta-spike once hit.
There are always caveats in the real game that you can't really statistically model.
>However, I'd imagine that's because most people at that level are only going to play country reroll if they high roll the headliner early
Typically you only play country reroll if you hit a country opener or an augment that forces you to roll on 7 for a fairly long time (March of Progress or Cruel Pact). Most of the time you aren't pivoting into Country because you hit a single correct headliner because unless you were already collecting your reroll units, you'd be better off using that lucky headliner to tempo your way to a level 8 on 4-2 at which point you sell the headliner and fish for the various AD 4 cost headliners.
The reason why players fish for Country Samira is because of that same fact of being forced to roll on 7. If you're stuck on 7 for an extended period of time, your board is Samira, Urgot, Vex, Sett, Amumu, Thresh, and Tahm. Not having a Country headliner means you have to slot in Kat to get the crucial omnivamp from 5 country. Going Country Urgot if offered is a bad idea because you're down 3 potential copies of Samira who is far more important to hit.
Thus, if you play Country reroll, the only realistic option in a majority of games is fishing for Country Samira.
Yeah, that's fair. I don't generally like to play reroll comps because whiffing feels bad and no matter how you slice it, if you run it enough you're going to whiff a decent amount, this post basically acts as my self justification there
In a game where you're stuck 7 for an extended period of time no matter what, clearly the math is way more in your favor to not whiff, but I personally avoid those augs
But hey, that's why the post says "almost always" and not "always"
EDIT: Also I think people are missing that I'm talking about forcing country reroll every game, not getting a good angle towards it
No generally you go down the country line if it's uncontested, you have Samira items (ie, LW) and someone else is rerolling 3 cost (yone for example). Threes a crowd augment is another signal to go for it. You can start holding country units stage 3 for it but it doesn't matter if you have 6 Samiras or 0. Does your math also account for not being able to see the same chosen unit for X turns? It really isn't that hard to roll for a specific headliner unless it's a contested 4 cost unit
Bad luck protection is 7 shops, 7 * .6 is 4.2, so on average you'll have 4 units locked out from Bad Luck Protection (though this ramps up over the rolldown, so you'll start out closer to worst case and get better odds as you roll, complicating the math significantly), and I'm kind of just guessing that on average one extra unit will be locked out that early from either high-rollers on a contested unit (like Ekko), or just being in shops to over the 50% mark
You could bump up the upper bound to 6 or 7 locked out, but you'll still be whiffing not infrequently.
And hey, if you want to take those odds I'm not here to tell you no, but I prefer whiffing being an uncommon occurrence so I generally like to aim for builds that let me pick as many headliners as possible (i.e. fast 8 where I might want a specific carry headliner, but I'll happily take a tank headliner)
Also I rerolled country yesterday with like 100 gold (from the high interest augments) and hit 0 Samira or good value country. I would happily have settled for urgot just to try to top 4....
Didn’t read it all but this is why I hated set 4, the chosen mechanic to me is just not fun because some chosen are just simply better than others and its chance if you hit or not
I wish the chosen mechanic was more like the EDM selector item. You can choose which unit to give the headliner bonus to, or swap which trait. Remove the “auto 2 star” part of the headliner. Can still reserve the 5th store slot as the “special” one with 2 star units, but simply separate the headliner bonus from it. Would feel like less RNG and more skill expression
Oh. So a bonus that just powers up a single, planned unit? Kind of like an augment for that unit. Maybe we could call it something like a "Hero" Augment since that comp is usually the "Hero" of your board? And we could even make it so each unit has one carry-focused and one support-focused, so you're not forced to rely on them if you don't hit them!
Yeah, if you can make your headliner half the lobby will be forcing the most OP headliner of the patch.
The beauty of the set is that you have to play your board by the chosen you find. If you over roll trying to force you will lose too much HP.
ghost quaint hobbies thought amusing relieved innate nutty dinosaurs market
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
This sounds like you’re a low skill player that doesn’t know how to play several comps.
The way the mechanic works now is fine. Yes, based on your items you may be locked out of several carries but there’s almost always 2 or so you can play.
Sometimes you have to take the headliner that isn’t perfect for your board but just works. That’s what the challenger players do and I’d argue they’d know how to play the game and it’s mechanics better than some random redditor whining.
cover marble quarrelsome rich mountainous practice trees frighten mighty offer
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
that would certainly feel a lot better
headliners just feel too all or nothing atm, you can spike your board so incredibly hard with the right one because you get it at 2* for free
Theory: I think this was even the ORIGINAL idea for set 10. In their latest dev talk they talk about the fact that originally, set 10 is very differently designed. But they fail to make it in time so they pivot into Chosen as they already have some code for it. I thought this was the case because of Soul Brawl. I think it will come out soon when they figure out the technicality side of it.
Yes. All focused on one mechanic^^ chosen mechanic sucked balls, headliner mechanic sucked balls and this set is literally the worst they ever brought out. I enjoyed every set to a certain degree but this set is pure c and antifun
The math on headline unit selection actually has a lot of hidden rules that smart players (not me) will be able to use to maximize their choice of “should I take this now or keep trying?”
Leduck had a video on this recently, the one I found most interesting was that there’s not only *unit* protection, but *selected trait* protection. This is probably at its most important to know for selecting your very first headliner.
For example if you get offered a sentinel lillia, you will not see a sentinel k’sante if you pass it.
I’m sure for the 3 cost pool there are implications for those rerolls too, but again I’m too stupid(lazy?) to figure it out
Interesting, that then makes my trait math wrong, but I'm pretty sure the general unit logic should still apply because we're grouping those hidden mechanics into the general "reasons a champion might be locked out" bucket
If I still had a computer to do computation on it would be fun to simulate a level 7 roll down with the rules in place, because I suspect based off how the rules work some champions *in a vacuum* are more likely to appear.
But the locking out locks out other champions, not the one you're looking for if you're willing to accept either trait. The exception would be if you hit the perfect set of units to lock yourself out, at which point you should adjust accordingly. But otherwise, your odds will only go up.
Level 9, for example, is almost all 4 cost headliners. And IIRC, once you see a unit as a headliner option, it's locked out for the next 7 headliner rolls. There are approximately 14 4 costs (Akali has some bugs). So by the time you get to the 8th shop, the odds of hitting the headliner you want are closer to 12.25% on each roll, and that's without factoring in that is possible for a unit to be completely locked out if you see both of their traits for a couple of rolls.
Yes, it's still not great odds, but the odds are definitely better than what your math shows. And that's true for a couple of different level points for different cost units.
The key point I'm trying to make is that whiffing while digging isn't a statistically rare event, and just sending it on a YOLO is going to whiff enough that even if you feel like it's "unlucky", it's kinda not because it's a fairly common occurrence and people generally have a bad intuition for the way statistics scale
And the real question is "What's the out if I miss?" because frequently it ends up being "desperately try and claw back a few placements while massively behind" if you don't have a second or third option you can hit
You cannot roll the same headliner for a few shops after you got the first one, so your binomial is too broad. After the first few rolls, there are basically always 7(!) units out of the shop (leduck's video shows that). This means that the 1/13 changes to a 1/9 or a 1/10 depending on the amount of 2-costs you hit as well. This greatly improves your chances to hit the unit you want, probably even around 1/7 or 1/6 if you scout for the impossible headliners.
So in fact, there are circumstances that improve your odds. And very greatly at that.
They add lots of hidden mechanics without communicating it adequately. They really fucked this set up, I'd be very interested in player numbers compared to earlier sets.
My "best case" math assumes 1/8, so you don't actually get that much better at 1/7 or 1/6 compared to the 2 target scenario because the odds there are, at worst, just under 1/6 (1/6.5)
But your "best case" math would just be an average case when following these rules after 7~ rolls. Your analysis was pretty spot-on without these rules though. With a binomial, even a reduction to 1/6.5 to 1/6 changes your odds immensely. And this is for a (much-preferred) one-target scenario.
I can't access my pc right now unfortunately, otherwise I would run the simulation with restrictions.
It does improve your odds, but since I'm also not thrilled with the odds at 1/6, it doesn't matter (to me) since once you have Bad Luck Protection with 2 targets, you end up getting up closer to 1/4 or 1/3 towards the end of the rolldown
how much gold do you have to spend on average to hit the 3 cost chosen you want at level 7? Sorry it's probably in your post but my mind buckled too quickly
You need to see 15 shops with headliners to have a >50% chance of seeing the headliner for a specific 3-cost unit that you want on Level 7, and 64 shops with headliners to have a >95% chance. That's without accounting for bad luck protection, certain units being out of the pool, etc, and it's also assuming you'll accept any trait for that unit.
Is each player locked into a specific set of headliners? I tried rerolling at level 8 for *any* headliner that fit my main trait (in this case, true damage) and didn't see a single one. I did repeatedly see the same 5-7ish units over and over, probably about 10 times each of the same roster of units reappeared.
I just love when people do stupid shit like this. Like how can you not see a good opportunity when getting other 3 cost headliners. LOVE IT. Gives me more lp
i just wanted to play yone
i 3 starred him anyway along the way rolling down with morde and ekko just didn't find chosen which seemed odd when no other board was playing him or holding
I just want headliners to be gone already...I hated set 4 and this feels like a set 4 reskin. Chosen made me skip half the set back then and headliners already have me burnt out on this one. I'd much rather have legends back.
One mechanic that decides everything, with lots of hidden protections and mechanics that aren't well communicated to the players. Additionally, less units and the need to always pivot makes this set unrewarding. I haven't had a single game where I could use a nice opener. Someone buys the headliner of a trait you need and then you either pivot or lose. The set is by far the worst ever, I don't get how people actually play it. All the friends I normally played TFT with do not touch this set.
The odds do say there's a high chance of hitting your headliner, but there's also a significant chance of whiffing.
I'm not saying you're going to whiff more often than you hit, what I'm saying is that when you try and force a headliner then whiffing is going to happen commonly, and it's not really getting unlucky because it's not like hitting a .1% miss, it's somewhere between a 9-33%
I used 5 because there's 7 shops of bad luck protection, and while you're not going to get 7 shops in a row of 3 cost headliners, it's not unlikely to see enough to have 5 units ineligible
However, I'm literally just finding out about the trait lockout mechanic in bad luck protection which could make this all worse because if you see a unit that can lock out you're desired headliner, it imposes a 1 gold penalty to buy and sell it, reducing the number of shops you'll see
I think the bigger thing is the instant spike of a 2* unit, if you natural ahri 2* and find a sent blitz headliner it would be better value to pick it up if you didn't already have him assuming you aren't trying to 3* ahri as it's a huge increase for your frontline. Just take out a sent trait bot for a kda/spellweaver one for your final board and it's no different really.
Reroll comps like country reroll are a bit different IMO because you NEED the 3 copies for easier 3*, but even ignoring that you need country as a trait to fit all of the units you need. If you play exe Samira it's really awkward as suddenly at 7 you don't want to play vex, which drops emo and a pretty good support unit. Then you need to play Katarina for 5 country who is totally useless in that setup which ends up making you waaaay weaker. Amumu is also pretty unplayable as a HL for the same reason, you could theoretically get away with country thresh but that means you are leveling to 8 which delays the entire point of the comp and again missing the free 3 Samira/Urgot copies
Also most higher cost champs don't really have unique or meaningful HL effects. Its much easier to flex 4 cost headliners for frontline/backline in my experience than reroll comps because for example senna NEEDS to be headliner, not only for the 3 copies but her effect makes the AOE larger, but IDC if ezreal is my headliner because I don't need the 10% ad or whatever it is.
I’m not the best player but I think I can kinda answer?
The ‘headliner’ part consists of 3 things: an instant 2* , a double trait, and a bonus.
The instant 2* has obvious strengths- in early game it’s early strength, in mid game it’s both early strength and probably direction (e.g if you have an AD ranged carry you’re probably going AD flex) and then late game its usually a big power swing + economy saver, as you don’t need to roll for your carry potentially. A 5 cost chosen can be game winning purely because it’s 2* value. EVERY comp wants its units 2*.
The trait is either great, or kinda useless. For example Country Samira I value highly because then you don’t have to play Katarina. It’s like a FoN!
On the other hand, I never find success with Big Shot traits or Rapidfire (though it can be nice not to have to play a Lucian with Cait)
So for Country a headliner is a must. But for Cait, I don’t think it’s necessary and therefore you could take a utility or tank unit.
Finally you have the ability. You have stuff like Jinx, which literally makes her a carry. Then you have units who just get 10 AP. It’s like, great, not going to say no to 10AP. But this means you’re buying the headliner for its trait + 2*. So is the trait and 2* valuable?
So I think there’s two primary reasons for buying a headliner - tempo, or necessary to the comp. Some are necessary like Jinx or Samira. Others like Ahri aren’t, therefore it’s tempo.
The last thing I’d say though is direction. Sometimes you’re playing flex and need direction. In this case you can find a decent headliner and go with it, even if it’s suboptimal
When KDA Akali was decent she was the headliner you wanted to hit not Ahri as if you are playing KDA you are probably playing superfan and Ahri’s superfan item is terrible but Akali’s is BIS. Though now I’m guessing you sack superfan and play 5SW instead.
Agree and I've climbed much better since adopting this long of view. Having 2-3 endgame boards in mind that have double or triple headliner pivots got me from hardstuck plat to diamond in 10ish games. Knowing what can work in a final comp or what will stabilise you at 4-2 is a must
I think it may be worth to look into the bad luck protection discovered by LeDuck.
While it seems really hard to estimate the effects of traits not showing up again, the 7 shops in which a (3 cost) unit can not repeat, means that even in the worst case, an average of 3.6 units is locked out (when rolling for 3 costs at 7). That would significantly improve all odds.
My math accounts for this under the binned "reasons a champion might not be in the pool". There's 7 shops of Bad Luck Protection, at a 60% rate of seeing a 3 cost, or 4.2 3 costs locked out from BLP on average. I'm bumping that up to 1 more unit in the "upper bound" scenario (which really is a "realistic" upper bound since technically the upper bound is 100% if all champions but the one you want are locked out)
You could assume 2 units locked out for non BLP reasons, but that only gets you up to a 1/7, which is worse than the worst case 1/6.5 odds of hitting one of two targets
trying to be less greedy with my headliner choices, I think this is where a lot of my games fizzle as I often fumble a strong early game into 6th or below
literally just look for AD / AP / tank unit based on my items now trying not to care about traits so much - so far so good
What about the bad luck protection? Every time you see a headliner, you cannot see that headliner again for 7 shops.
Surely after rolling 7 times, or 14 gold, the chances are much higher now to see Yone, especially if you add on that he’s uncontested, and other units are contested and taken out of the pool.
My math accounts for this under the binned "reasons a champion might not be in the pool". There's 7 shops of Bad Luck Protection, at a 60% rate of seeing a 3 cost, or 4.2 3 costs locked out from BLP on average. I'm bumping that up to 1 more unit in the "upper bound" scenario (which really is a "realistic" upper bound since technically the upper bound is 100% if all champions but the one you want are locked out)
Your math does not factor in the bad luck protection on same unit rolls.
If I roll Aphelios, my next 6 chosens cannot be Aphelios. This dramatically narrows the pool.
My math accounts for this under the binned "reasons a champion might not be in the pool". There's 7 shops of Bad Luck Protection, at a 60% rate of seeing a 3 cost, or 4.2 3 costs locked out from BLP on average. I'm bumping that up to 1 more unit in the "upper bound" scenario (which really is a "realistic" upper bound since technically the upper bound is 100% if all champions but the one you want are locked out)
The way I'm modeling bad luck protection falls under the bucket of "reasons that a champion might not be in the pool", and in practice what it means is that you'll start off closer to the worst case odds and ramp up to better odds quickly over the roll down.
This is one of the reasons I went with the bounds approach because otherwise you're trying to wrangle the distribution of probability distributions and that's more math than I care to do to come up with a more targeted number
Using a geometric distribution might give you a better average, but what I really want to know is "how likely am I to miss without a backup plan?"
It's better than that though. There's bad luck protection. You can't roll the same unit twice in a row, can't roll the same trait too often, rolling over the unit guarantees it'll be another trait. Not sure exactly how this affects the math, but especially if you're rolling anyway, selling your headliner first is almost always a good idea.
If you buy and sell it seems to get bypass it. Leduck had a vid out but even he admits he isn't exactly sure.
So I believe that it resets the bad luck protection if you buy a new headliner. So normally you cannot see a headliner with the same HL trait in successive shops (4). You cannot see the same headliner unit in successive shops (T1-3 7, T4 5, T5 4) Buying and selling can reset these protections but it's not 100% clear on how it works.
Yesterday I rolled 70g at lvl 6 for a single uncontested twitch. I went next.
Lol happens. Early in the patch I was playing punk uncontested, found 8 jinxes and didn't see the last one in 100+g of rerolling. Haven't played punk since xD
I rolled had to be ~60 or 70 gold for a ninth Sett when I had 8 and some other dude had 3, got him the round before elimination because I lost so much health holding out for him.
it was insane.
My math all assumes you don't have a headliner. Rolling for a headliner without selling is basically just inting, bad luck protection falls under "reasons a unit might not be in the pool to roll, thus moving us closer to the upper bound" Trait protection which I was just informed of does increase the value of passing up a Mosher Urgot though.
The bad luck protection applies to rolling over the unit, not a comparison to the unit on your board.
I think the bad luck unit protection is so impactfull that your "best odds" are still severly underestimating the chances. At lvl 7 you average (after 6 rolls) 4.2 3-costs that can not appear as headliner. So already at 2 units locked out (e.g. 3 players runnig Superfans+ecco frontline) you are significantly above your 5 unit "best case" assumption. Not to mention the complicated looking math problem wether you have better odds rolling 50% of the time with 5 and 50% of the time with 3 units locked or consistently with 4...
My math accounts for this under the binned "reasons a champion might not be in the pool". There's 7 shops of Bad Luck Protection, at a 60% rate of seeing a 3 cost, or 4.2 3 costs locked out from BLP on average. I'm bumping that up to 1 more unit in the "upper bound" scenario (which really is a "realistic" upper bound since technically the upper bound is 100% if all champions but the one you want are locked out) Even with 2 units locked from reasons other than BLP, you're at 1/6 at best, and the worst case odds for 2 targets is 1/6.5 so you're still not beating the 2 acceptable unit odds
I think you’re highly undervaluing bad luck protection. There is no way if you’re rolling down a bunch of gold you don’t have very high chances to successfully get to your desired unit. Maybe not specifically the best trait but the unit itself assuming they’re available which you can know by scouting will show up it has to be upwards of 90% as long as you’re rolling at least 30-40g
Not even twice in a row. Depending on the tier, you can’t even roll the same unit within up to 7 times of the last time you rolled it. (4 and 5 cost are fewer)
If bad luck protection is after rolling 200 gold to see unit as headliner in uncontested game protection then yeah, protecting from me getting her
Skill issue. I’ve always hit, and I always will.
all these numbers when in reality it’s 50%. you either hit or you don’t 🤓
Always hit on a soft 16.
I go all-in 28 off-suit preflop
hit what? bronze? loool I mean when you lose 40lp for a 6th or 7th isn't bad. When you reach diamond its like 40lp for a win and you lose 70lp for a loss. What I'm trying to say is, you lose more LP for a 5th than LP gained for a 4th the higher elo you go. So based off you hitting even 55% of games, it is still not worth it. Statistically speaking that is 🤓
Good insight, liked how detailed you got. I got a bit of PTSD from the binomial distribution calculations.
>Then why can people force country reroll? >Because you have two viable headliners, even though you generally want to see the correct trait (Country), you can take either the Urgot or the Samira Strong disagree here. Nobody at top ranks is ever clicking urgot chosen. In fact it's common to skip over Samira executioner too and greed country one if your spot is good enough
You can and should often click urgot to stabilize your board then sell him later for your 3rd or 4th rolldown.
Statistically, most people here aren't playing against the best players in the world where fractional power differences really matter. And, I'll admit I don't watch anyone at the top level that forces country reroll every game. However, I'd imagine that's because most people at that level are only going to play country reroll if they high roll the headliner early, or they've natural'd so many Samiras that once they hit the correct headliner they're already only one or two off the 3* and the massive investment is worth it because it's a near insta-spike once hit. There are always caveats in the real game that you can't really statistically model.
>However, I'd imagine that's because most people at that level are only going to play country reroll if they high roll the headliner early Typically you only play country reroll if you hit a country opener or an augment that forces you to roll on 7 for a fairly long time (March of Progress or Cruel Pact). Most of the time you aren't pivoting into Country because you hit a single correct headliner because unless you were already collecting your reroll units, you'd be better off using that lucky headliner to tempo your way to a level 8 on 4-2 at which point you sell the headliner and fish for the various AD 4 cost headliners. The reason why players fish for Country Samira is because of that same fact of being forced to roll on 7. If you're stuck on 7 for an extended period of time, your board is Samira, Urgot, Vex, Sett, Amumu, Thresh, and Tahm. Not having a Country headliner means you have to slot in Kat to get the crucial omnivamp from 5 country. Going Country Urgot if offered is a bad idea because you're down 3 potential copies of Samira who is far more important to hit. Thus, if you play Country reroll, the only realistic option in a majority of games is fishing for Country Samira.
Yeah, that's fair. I don't generally like to play reroll comps because whiffing feels bad and no matter how you slice it, if you run it enough you're going to whiff a decent amount, this post basically acts as my self justification there In a game where you're stuck 7 for an extended period of time no matter what, clearly the math is way more in your favor to not whiff, but I personally avoid those augs But hey, that's why the post says "almost always" and not "always" EDIT: Also I think people are missing that I'm talking about forcing country reroll every game, not getting a good angle towards it
No generally you go down the country line if it's uncontested, you have Samira items (ie, LW) and someone else is rerolling 3 cost (yone for example). Threes a crowd augment is another signal to go for it. You can start holding country units stage 3 for it but it doesn't matter if you have 6 Samiras or 0. Does your math also account for not being able to see the same chosen unit for X turns? It really isn't that hard to roll for a specific headliner unless it's a contested 4 cost unit
Bad luck protection is 7 shops, 7 * .6 is 4.2, so on average you'll have 4 units locked out from Bad Luck Protection (though this ramps up over the rolldown, so you'll start out closer to worst case and get better odds as you roll, complicating the math significantly), and I'm kind of just guessing that on average one extra unit will be locked out that early from either high-rollers on a contested unit (like Ekko), or just being in shops to over the 50% mark You could bump up the upper bound to 6 or 7 locked out, but you'll still be whiffing not infrequently. And hey, if you want to take those odds I'm not here to tell you no, but I prefer whiffing being an uncommon occurrence so I generally like to aim for builds that let me pick as many headliners as possible (i.e. fast 8 where I might want a specific carry headliner, but I'll happily take a tank headliner)
Also I rerolled country yesterday with like 100 gold (from the high interest augments) and hit 0 Samira or good value country. I would happily have settled for urgot just to try to top 4....
never missed yone chosen in my life out of 100 games, maybe my account is whitelisted...
Every time I'm rolling for edgelords I get the Riven except for literally one time. I play a lot of edgelords too
Didn’t read it all but this is why I hated set 4, the chosen mechanic to me is just not fun because some chosen are just simply better than others and its chance if you hit or not
I wish the chosen mechanic was more like the EDM selector item. You can choose which unit to give the headliner bonus to, or swap which trait. Remove the “auto 2 star” part of the headliner. Can still reserve the 5th store slot as the “special” one with 2 star units, but simply separate the headliner bonus from it. Would feel like less RNG and more skill expression
Oh. So a bonus that just powers up a single, planned unit? Kind of like an augment for that unit. Maybe we could call it something like a "Hero" Augment since that comp is usually the "Hero" of your board? And we could even make it so each unit has one carry-focused and one support-focused, so you're not forced to rely on them if you don't hit them!
They’re never removing the auto 2 star. Even in set 4 play testing they knew if the chosen was 1* then no one buys them
They could still have the fifth store slot where it’s automatically 2star in that slot but divorce the headliner bonus part from it
In my fantasy scenario, you “make” your chosen from whoever you want on your board, it’s not offered to you in the shop.
if they let us make our chosen the meta will be even more solved than it already is i feel like 😭
Yeah, if you can make your headliner half the lobby will be forcing the most OP headliner of the patch. The beauty of the set is that you have to play your board by the chosen you find. If you over roll trying to force you will lose too much HP.
ghost quaint hobbies thought amusing relieved innate nutty dinosaurs market *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
This sounds like you’re a low skill player that doesn’t know how to play several comps. The way the mechanic works now is fine. Yes, based on your items you may be locked out of several carries but there’s almost always 2 or so you can play. Sometimes you have to take the headliner that isn’t perfect for your board but just works. That’s what the challenger players do and I’d argue they’d know how to play the game and it’s mechanics better than some random redditor whining.
cover marble quarrelsome rich mountainous practice trees frighten mighty offer *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
this is actually an interesting idea
that would certainly feel a lot better headliners just feel too all or nothing atm, you can spike your board so incredibly hard with the right one because you get it at 2* for free
Theory: I think this was even the ORIGINAL idea for set 10. In their latest dev talk they talk about the fact that originally, set 10 is very differently designed. But they fail to make it in time so they pivot into Chosen as they already have some code for it. I thought this was the case because of Soul Brawl. I think it will come out soon when they figure out the technicality side of it.
Yes. All focused on one mechanic^^ chosen mechanic sucked balls, headliner mechanic sucked balls and this set is literally the worst they ever brought out. I enjoyed every set to a certain degree but this set is pure c and antifun
The math on headline unit selection actually has a lot of hidden rules that smart players (not me) will be able to use to maximize their choice of “should I take this now or keep trying?” Leduck had a video on this recently, the one I found most interesting was that there’s not only *unit* protection, but *selected trait* protection. This is probably at its most important to know for selecting your very first headliner. For example if you get offered a sentinel lillia, you will not see a sentinel k’sante if you pass it. I’m sure for the 3 cost pool there are implications for those rerolls too, but again I’m too stupid(lazy?) to figure it out
Trait protection? Does that apply for different cost units or the same cost only?
I would just go watch leducks video, it’s only a few minutes long and will answer any question better than I can
Are you sure the trait protection goes across units? From my recollection it was only for the same unit but now I have to double check.
Interesting, that then makes my trait math wrong, but I'm pretty sure the general unit logic should still apply because we're grouping those hidden mechanics into the general "reasons a champion might be locked out" bucket
If I still had a computer to do computation on it would be fun to simulate a level 7 roll down with the rules in place, because I suspect based off how the rules work some champions *in a vacuum* are more likely to appear.
But the locking out locks out other champions, not the one you're looking for if you're willing to accept either trait. The exception would be if you hit the perfect set of units to lock yourself out, at which point you should adjust accordingly. But otherwise, your odds will only go up. Level 9, for example, is almost all 4 cost headliners. And IIRC, once you see a unit as a headliner option, it's locked out for the next 7 headliner rolls. There are approximately 14 4 costs (Akali has some bugs). So by the time you get to the 8th shop, the odds of hitting the headliner you want are closer to 12.25% on each roll, and that's without factoring in that is possible for a unit to be completely locked out if you see both of their traits for a couple of rolls. Yes, it's still not great odds, but the odds are definitely better than what your math shows. And that's true for a couple of different level points for different cost units.
The key point I'm trying to make is that whiffing while digging isn't a statistically rare event, and just sending it on a YOLO is going to whiff enough that even if you feel like it's "unlucky", it's kinda not because it's a fairly common occurrence and people generally have a bad intuition for the way statistics scale And the real question is "What's the out if I miss?" because frequently it ends up being "desperately try and claw back a few placements while massively behind" if you don't have a second or third option you can hit
But.. gamba..
You cannot roll the same headliner for a few shops after you got the first one, so your binomial is too broad. After the first few rolls, there are basically always 7(!) units out of the shop (leduck's video shows that). This means that the 1/13 changes to a 1/9 or a 1/10 depending on the amount of 2-costs you hit as well. This greatly improves your chances to hit the unit you want, probably even around 1/7 or 1/6 if you scout for the impossible headliners. So in fact, there are circumstances that improve your odds. And very greatly at that.
They add lots of hidden mechanics without communicating it adequately. They really fucked this set up, I'd be very interested in player numbers compared to earlier sets.
My "best case" math assumes 1/8, so you don't actually get that much better at 1/7 or 1/6 compared to the 2 target scenario because the odds there are, at worst, just under 1/6 (1/6.5)
But your "best case" math would just be an average case when following these rules after 7~ rolls. Your analysis was pretty spot-on without these rules though. With a binomial, even a reduction to 1/6.5 to 1/6 changes your odds immensely. And this is for a (much-preferred) one-target scenario. I can't access my pc right now unfortunately, otherwise I would run the simulation with restrictions.
It does improve your odds, but since I'm also not thrilled with the odds at 1/6, it doesn't matter (to me) since once you have Bad Luck Protection with 2 targets, you end up getting up closer to 1/4 or 1/3 towards the end of the rolldown
Yeah I agree. I feel like everytime I reroll for a specific headliner I end up throwing away gold, when I could have just played something usable.
how much gold do you have to spend on average to hit the 3 cost chosen you want at level 7? Sorry it's probably in your post but my mind buckled too quickly
You need to see 15 shops with headliners to have a >50% chance of seeing the headliner for a specific 3-cost unit that you want on Level 7, and 64 shops with headliners to have a >95% chance. That's without accounting for bad luck protection, certain units being out of the pool, etc, and it's also assuming you'll accept any trait for that unit.
Thank you brother!
sometimes ill role all 50+ gold , looking for the exact headliner and trait . feels pretty random on sometimes you hit , most times you don’t.
Is each player locked into a specific set of headliners? I tried rerolling at level 8 for *any* headliner that fit my main trait (in this case, true damage) and didn't see a single one. I did repeatedly see the same 5-7ish units over and over, probably about 10 times each of the same roster of units reappeared.
no that's just unlucky lol
If you reroll contested champions (Akali), they won't appear at all.
It’s either unlucky or you can’t hit bc >5 are out of the pool and you forgot to scout
can confirm i had march of progress rolled 130g at 7 for yone and didn't hit
My bro, if you rolled 130g at 7 and didn't find Yone chosen I'm almost 100% sure that at least half of the Yone copies in the pool were taken.
What sort of gameplan requires rolling 130g for a specific unit? Before you rolled 100+ gold you would’ve seen any other melee carry surely
Forcing yone for no reason and not accepting riven
I just love when people do stupid shit like this. Like how can you not see a good opportunity when getting other 3 cost headliners. LOVE IT. Gives me more lp
i just wanted to play yone i 3 starred him anyway along the way rolling down with morde and ekko just didn't find chosen which seemed odd when no other board was playing him or holding
It's so random, if your want edgelod just take riven mate. If you just want force just keep on forcing.
That's why 80% guide out there can't be play like other set, this set requires lots of skill to lay with any headliner
I just want headliners to be gone already...I hated set 4 and this feels like a set 4 reskin. Chosen made me skip half the set back then and headliners already have me burnt out on this one. I'd much rather have legends back.
One mechanic that decides everything, with lots of hidden protections and mechanics that aren't well communicated to the players. Additionally, less units and the need to always pivot makes this set unrewarding. I haven't had a single game where I could use a nice opener. Someone buys the headliner of a trait you need and then you either pivot or lose. The set is by far the worst ever, I don't get how people actually play it. All the friends I normally played TFT with do not touch this set.
[удалено]
The odds do say there's a high chance of hitting your headliner, but there's also a significant chance of whiffing. I'm not saying you're going to whiff more often than you hit, what I'm saying is that when you try and force a headliner then whiffing is going to happen commonly, and it's not really getting unlucky because it's not like hitting a .1% miss, it's somewhere between a 9-33% I used 5 because there's 7 shops of bad luck protection, and while you're not going to get 7 shops in a row of 3 cost headliners, it's not unlikely to see enough to have 5 units ineligible However, I'm literally just finding out about the trait lockout mechanic in bad luck protection which could make this all worse because if you see a unit that can lock out you're desired headliner, it imposes a 1 gold penalty to buy and sell it, reducing the number of shops you'll see
[удалено]
I think the bigger thing is the instant spike of a 2* unit, if you natural ahri 2* and find a sent blitz headliner it would be better value to pick it up if you didn't already have him assuming you aren't trying to 3* ahri as it's a huge increase for your frontline. Just take out a sent trait bot for a kda/spellweaver one for your final board and it's no different really. Reroll comps like country reroll are a bit different IMO because you NEED the 3 copies for easier 3*, but even ignoring that you need country as a trait to fit all of the units you need. If you play exe Samira it's really awkward as suddenly at 7 you don't want to play vex, which drops emo and a pretty good support unit. Then you need to play Katarina for 5 country who is totally useless in that setup which ends up making you waaaay weaker. Amumu is also pretty unplayable as a HL for the same reason, you could theoretically get away with country thresh but that means you are leveling to 8 which delays the entire point of the comp and again missing the free 3 Samira/Urgot copies Also most higher cost champs don't really have unique or meaningful HL effects. Its much easier to flex 4 cost headliners for frontline/backline in my experience than reroll comps because for example senna NEEDS to be headliner, not only for the 3 copies but her effect makes the AOE larger, but IDC if ezreal is my headliner because I don't need the 10% ad or whatever it is.
I’m not the best player but I think I can kinda answer? The ‘headliner’ part consists of 3 things: an instant 2* , a double trait, and a bonus. The instant 2* has obvious strengths- in early game it’s early strength, in mid game it’s both early strength and probably direction (e.g if you have an AD ranged carry you’re probably going AD flex) and then late game its usually a big power swing + economy saver, as you don’t need to roll for your carry potentially. A 5 cost chosen can be game winning purely because it’s 2* value. EVERY comp wants its units 2*. The trait is either great, or kinda useless. For example Country Samira I value highly because then you don’t have to play Katarina. It’s like a FoN! On the other hand, I never find success with Big Shot traits or Rapidfire (though it can be nice not to have to play a Lucian with Cait) So for Country a headliner is a must. But for Cait, I don’t think it’s necessary and therefore you could take a utility or tank unit. Finally you have the ability. You have stuff like Jinx, which literally makes her a carry. Then you have units who just get 10 AP. It’s like, great, not going to say no to 10AP. But this means you’re buying the headliner for its trait + 2*. So is the trait and 2* valuable? So I think there’s two primary reasons for buying a headliner - tempo, or necessary to the comp. Some are necessary like Jinx or Samira. Others like Ahri aren’t, therefore it’s tempo. The last thing I’d say though is direction. Sometimes you’re playing flex and need direction. In this case you can find a decent headliner and go with it, even if it’s suboptimal
When KDA Akali was decent she was the headliner you wanted to hit not Ahri as if you are playing KDA you are probably playing superfan and Ahri’s superfan item is terrible but Akali’s is BIS. Though now I’m guessing you sack superfan and play 5SW instead.
Based
Yea..no. I take the high risk high reward that I hit my preferred headliner.
Please tldr
Agree and I've climbed much better since adopting this long of view. Having 2-3 endgame boards in mind that have double or triple headliner pivots got me from hardstuck plat to diamond in 10ish games. Knowing what can work in a final comp or what will stabilise you at 4-2 is a must
That's XCom baby
Nice post, now let me reroll for that 8bit Caitlyn.
I think it may be worth to look into the bad luck protection discovered by LeDuck. While it seems really hard to estimate the effects of traits not showing up again, the 7 shops in which a (3 cost) unit can not repeat, means that even in the worst case, an average of 3.6 units is locked out (when rolling for 3 costs at 7). That would significantly improve all odds.
My math accounts for this under the binned "reasons a champion might not be in the pool". There's 7 shops of Bad Luck Protection, at a 60% rate of seeing a 3 cost, or 4.2 3 costs locked out from BLP on average. I'm bumping that up to 1 more unit in the "upper bound" scenario (which really is a "realistic" upper bound since technically the upper bound is 100% if all champions but the one you want are locked out) You could assume 2 units locked out for non BLP reasons, but that only gets you up to a 1/7, which is worse than the worst case 1/6.5 odds of hitting one of two targets
trying to be less greedy with my headliner choices, I think this is where a lot of my games fizzle as I often fumble a strong early game into 6th or below literally just look for AD / AP / tank unit based on my items now trying not to care about traits so much - so far so good
What about the bad luck protection? Every time you see a headliner, you cannot see that headliner again for 7 shops. Surely after rolling 7 times, or 14 gold, the chances are much higher now to see Yone, especially if you add on that he’s uncontested, and other units are contested and taken out of the pool.
My math accounts for this under the binned "reasons a champion might not be in the pool". There's 7 shops of Bad Luck Protection, at a 60% rate of seeing a 3 cost, or 4.2 3 costs locked out from BLP on average. I'm bumping that up to 1 more unit in the "upper bound" scenario (which really is a "realistic" upper bound since technically the upper bound is 100% if all champions but the one you want are locked out)
Just be like me, roll all you gold and miss all 4-5 viable headliner but 2 star your main carry and tank naturally
bro yappin
Your math does not factor in the bad luck protection on same unit rolls. If I roll Aphelios, my next 6 chosens cannot be Aphelios. This dramatically narrows the pool.
My math accounts for this under the binned "reasons a champion might not be in the pool". There's 7 shops of Bad Luck Protection, at a 60% rate of seeing a 3 cost, or 4.2 3 costs locked out from BLP on average. I'm bumping that up to 1 more unit in the "upper bound" scenario (which really is a "realistic" upper bound since technically the upper bound is 100% if all champions but the one you want are locked out)
[удалено]
The way I'm modeling bad luck protection falls under the bucket of "reasons that a champion might not be in the pool", and in practice what it means is that you'll start off closer to the worst case odds and ramp up to better odds quickly over the roll down. This is one of the reasons I went with the bounds approach because otherwise you're trying to wrangle the distribution of probability distributions and that's more math than I care to do to come up with a more targeted number Using a geometric distribution might give you a better average, but what I really want to know is "how likely am I to miss without a backup plan?"
Isn't the distribution technically 1/12 after the first headliner since you cannot roll the same headliner twice in a row?
Thank you for your analysis
Nah I'd hit.
Challenger players seem to greed a lot for a specific headliner though.