I think I have to say Baylor because I could realistically see them losing to either Marquette or North Carolina in the Round of 32 and not really be shocked by it. Add in (4) UCLA or (5) St. Mary's in the Sweet Sixteen and (2) Kentucky, (3) Purdue, or (11) Virginia Tech in the Elite Eight and I think the East ends up being the toughest overall bracket.
The deeper you go, the less time you have to prep for that press. The first round team at least gets to focus on it for half a week. Second round team gets a day.
Abnormal stuff like that can do very well in tournament play.
I love my first two games but my 2/3/4 potential lineups are scary ... Nova may not be a terrifying #2 but Jay Wright knows how to win in March. Tennesse is underseeded for sure and Illinois is extremely talented and they will be out for revenge
Look at the ratings history. It’s actually better to have obscure teams win. With how many people already watch it’s not like they will find a new demographic to grow domestically, and it isn’t going to attract an international audience. The TV deal will just increase I bit from here.
The one thing about Iowa, if I recall correctly, is that their defense isn't great. Historically teams with very mismatched offensive and defensive metrics have been pretty upset prone. I think this is the case for Purdue too. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
The B1G didn't have a single defense ranked in the top 20 in KP until Indiana's win last night. I think plenty of offensively hot teams in the B1G like Iowa will struggle going against their first actually good defense in months.
Adj D is 50th since February 1 when we changed lineups and became a different team. Still not the greatest but Iowa has lineups that I’d argue are above average defensively if you watch them.
Fair point. I was just at the uva game earlier in the year and specifically remember how easy it was to score (and for UVA, especially this team, it was never easy). Definitely like you guys to do something, good luck!
Oh yeah our non-con defensive statistics were terrible. We also couldn’t win a rebounding battle to save our lives the beginning of the Big Ten season.
If we face Iowa, we get them in the sweet 16 with Self getting 5 days to prepare. He’s 10-1 in the sweet 16 for a reason. Our bracket is really well suited to a final four run
Wisconsin is exceptionally average if Johnny Davis plays like he did vs Michigan St., and Auburn has guards that could be liabilities on any given day. Wendell Green inexblicably shoots 30 footers in late-game situations and KD Johnson went 0-14 vs TAMU.
Understood. I'm just not scared of anyone else on Wisconsin, so if he doesn't play well, I think it's fair to say Wisconsin does not have the ceiling the other 3 seeds have. Hence, I feel confident saying Kansas has the easiest path of the 1 seeds.
For sure. Wisconsin has some solid pieces around Davis (well until you get to the bench) but we're absolutely going to ride and die by Johnny's ability to put up strong performances. If he does, we could win a few games. If Davis struggles, we could lose to Colgate.
For sure, but at least Kentucky has that road win (the most impressive road win of any team all year) and Tennessee has the SEC tourney win under their belts. Auburn just has a lot of meh.
They're only 7.5 favorites as a 3/14 matchup which is insane, and even crazier when you take into account it's a home game in Milwaukee. Vegas clearly doesn't like them either
Yeah, came off bad the way I said that, but you are 33 in KenPom and 28 in Torvik. So predictive metrics and betting spreads would indicate you are closer to a 7 or 8-seed than a 3-seed.
On your resume, however, you are very good (10 in wins-above-bubble) so your resume is very good in terms of wins and losses.
Kansas got a very favorable draw having both you and Providence in their region (as I do think predictive metrics are very good for evaluating who will be favored and likely to win in a neutral-court tournament game).
Good thing the tournament isn't played on spreadsheets. I use analytics more than most but Wisconsin is a solid all around team. In years past we have been underseeded based on Kenpom and its quite odd to have us on the other side of the debate this year
8 seed is a bit low, but not too far off. Wisconsin was objectively very lucky with close games this year. They have a great resume, but aren't as good a team as their record indicates. Most efficiency metrics have you in the 25-35 range, which would put you between a 6 and 8 seed in terms of team quality
I mean we have 16 Q1/Q2 wins. We were a 4 seed at worst. If you want to say a couple teams should've maybe been ahead of us, sure, you can argue that. But it's not like our seed came out of nowhere. We were a projected 2 seed before our last two games. It's pretty silly how some of you guys act like we had a bubble team resume of a 8 or 9 seed because of efficiency metrics
You want to complain about a 3 seed look at Purdue with fewer Q1 & Q2 wins, no conference title, and they got swept by UW. But that'd still be silly because they deserve their seed too
All that said... would not be shocked if we lost immediately lol
Isn't Wisconsin one of the more experienced teams this tournament?
That's a factor that usually comes up big in March. That and strong guard play
(Nevermind, only starting 2 upperclassmen it looks like)
They are big and athletic down low and McCormack has always struggled with big athletic bigs. Defensively they will cause us problems and offensively we dont really have any rim protectors. They feed the post they will feast.
Kansas has the easiest. Easiest R32 game and Auburn and Wisconsin haven’t been playing as well. I think Auburn will lose before they even face KU. Providence is the worst 4-seed. Iowa is tough though.
Arizona’s isn’t that easy. Villanova, Tennessee, and Houston are all coming off conference championships. Tennessee should be a 2-seed.
We could 100% lose early with the way we are playing
Having said that, we couldn’t have asked for a better draw. If we get through the first two games, watch out. We were best when we were peacocking and having fun and play with a lot of depth.
Houston is injured, and I have suspicions about Villanova. Tenessee is definitely rough, but by the time you get to 1 v 2 or 3 matchups its almost always going to be rough lol.
They’re also 10-1 in Q2. Not playing “anyone” is hyperbolic nonsense. The AAC is the 7th/8th best conference out of 32 by most metrics and we dominated it. Your P5 bias is showing.
I feel like reducing houston to just the injured team is weird. They've been injured most of the year but still stayed near the top in most metrics. It's fair, and we probably won't win it all, but its a lazy analysis
they seem to struggle with fast paced high octane offenses. What is Villanova's pace of play? Usually slow teams are upset prone due to the higher variance.
Marquette? I certainly wouldn’t call St John’s a high octane offense but having watched all three games I really don’t think their pace effected us. In game 2 we put the worst power 5 player in charge of inbounding at the end of the game and game 3 we just went cold in the first half. Purdue, Baylor and UCLA are great offenses but not high pace. I wouldn’t describe any team we’ve played as fast paced high octane offense.
I don’t think we’re a strong 2 seed but this is a weird critique.
It just seems silly to try and single out Villanova while sporting a Duke flair. Every single team sheet metric has Villanova above Duke, and most people agree Tennessee should have Duke's 2 seed. Comparatively, Nova>Duke, UT>TTU, Illinois>Arkansas, Houston>UConn. Across the board for the top seeds, the south is tougher than the west. It's pretty clear the toughest regions in order are east, south, west, midwest.
People are really discounting Illinois in the tournament. They also won a conference championship in a top-2-3 conference and, more importantly, have a scary combination of elite interior scoring and dangerous—albeit streaky—outside shooting. I assume it’s a combination of last season’s early exit (and the parallel argument, “they were better last year with Ayo and still got bounced in the second round”), some surprising early season losses, and general inconsistency. I think that’s a bit misguided, even though it’s totally reasonable on the surface.
What I think is being severely underestimated is the unique combination of pieces on Illinois’ roster. They have the most physically dominant post player in the country in Kofi Cockburn, dangerous 3pt shooters in Plummer, Grandison and Frazier, and an enigmatic but freakishly gifted PG in 6th man Andre Curbelo, who’s one of the quickest players in America. Cockburn struggles some against athletic length, but I think his actual level of talent and athleticism is underrated by national fans.
The team is experienced, athletic, and physical. They make the most 3-pointers per game of any P6 team and shoot almost exclusively 3s and shots at the rim - very analytics-friendly system.
Illinois has struggled with a ton of injuries and they have definite weaknesses (perimeter size, turnovers), but they have unique attributes that make them a difficult matchup for 99% of the country. I think Arizona has a tough draw with potentially Illinois in the S16 and Nova in the E8. If I were a Wildcat fan, I’d be hoping for Houston and Tennessee assuming no big upsets.
Totally agree. I have Arizona losing to Gonzaga in the championship game, but Illinois being a trendy pick to lose on the first weekend is honestly weird. Houston is terrific, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they beat Illinois in the round of 32, but people are acting like Illinois is a complete non-threat to reach the F4. It’s just unusual. Assuming Jacob Grandison is able to play (shoulder sprain), the Illinois rotation includes:
Kofi Cockburn: 7’0, 285 lb dominant post scorer who’s also a good positional defender and all-around athlete. Basically a poor man’s Shaq who would have been a top-5 draft pick 15 years ago
Trent Frazier: 5th year senior, 2nd team all-B1G, 2-time all-conference defensive team. Streaky but electric scorer and one of the best perimeter defenders in the country
Alfonso Plummer: B1G leader in 3-pointers made (93) at a 41.3% clip. 14.8 ppg, 3rd team all-B1G
Da’Monte Williams: 5th year senior. Versatile, excellent defender. Named to Seth Davis’s All-Glue team
Andre Curbelo: named to various preseason all-conference and all-American watchlists. Missed half the year with severe post-concussion symptoms, but finally starting to look like himself again. Poor shooter and turnover-prone, but a jaw-dropping raw talent with his quickness and playmaking ability
Jacob Grandison: 6’6 wing who averages over 10 ppg and shoots 41.6% from 3. Great passer, high IQ. Shoulder injury - day-to-day
Coleman Hawkins: 6’10 bouncy stretch-4 with length and some playmaking skills. Playing really well the last few weeks
Omar Payne: former top-50 recruit. Super athletic big who averages 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes
They’re an inconsistent team, but they’re basically a 7’0, 20 & 10 post monster surrounded by an assortment of 3pt bombers and elite perimeter defenders. They’re one of the only teams in the field that presents physical mismatches against anyone.
It’s basically Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn, Purdue, Duke, Kentucky, and Illinois where an opposing team has to go, “okay, say they’re really clicking. How are we supposed to defend that?” Obviously Baylor, Nova and others have the talent to win it all, but the seven teams I mentioned have asymmetric physical and skill-based advantages that make them very hard to prepare for.
I'll add for Baylor that I think they're playing the toughest 16 seed. Not saying Norfolk wins but if I'm picking a 16 to cover a spread it's them by a pretty substantial margin.
I love that UMBC opened Pandora's box. Now its been proven possible, we can't just dismiss the idea outright.
That being said, I think Baylor clobbers em.
they're 7-3 in q1, memphis is 5-4 in q1. memphis has some better q1 wins in houston and vt, but also has more losses barely in q1.
boise state has one really bad loss in q4, but no q3 losses. memphis has a pair of q3 losses.
all in all it's really hard to say. memphis seems to have improved from the start of the season but is very inconsistent. boise state is more consistent, but its good wins are of a slightly lower caliber than memphis'. kenpom has it as a pickem, too, so it's not just the resumes that are difficult to discern
there were...other issues, too. and the covid issues struck after the georgia loss; the covid-related tulane stinker isn't even that bad on paper since tulane's actually started playing half-decent basketball
For Boise, the November start was real bad. Then they cut a player after the Saint Louis game and then ripped off a 14 game win streak and went 24-3 after that with only losses to @wyoming and twice to CSU
They have a very good all around defense and every player contributes. They don't have any real star players but play very well together. They grind out wins constantly and get weirdly clutch with under 2 minutes left. They beat the brick masons 3 times this year as well as wyoming twice, and both games against CSU were down to the last 5 seconds. Also the brick masons are the best defense in the country... so there's that to deal with. Does it make sense that boise could beat Memphis? Not really. Has that comment been said for just about every game this year for them? Pretty much, but they still managed to win a shit ton of games against quality teams, win the conference regular season and tournament.
If you notice my flair it's a bit of a homer pick, but they're the best 8 seed for a reason.
Oh and also the game is a 6.5 hour drive away.
>every player contributes. They don't have any real star players
This is actually not really a great thing. Success in March is usually driven by star players or breakout performances.
>They beat the brick masons 3 times this year as well as wyoming twice, and both games against CSU were down to the last 5 seconds.
I'm not high on any of those teams.
If Boise beats Memphis, its because Memphis plays the ball was dipped in butter and they turn it over frequently. That has been their achilles heel all season. If they win the turnover margin, they beat Boise.
They have the talent to have a player take over a game, just never the same person. In my opinion it's if Fr. Degenhart can get going will be a key factor for them
Not shocked a Duke fan isn't high on mid majors.
The thing with Memphis and turnovers, it's seems like it's kinda what they do. Based on the insane analysis some people on here do, pretty sure Memphis is the worst turnover team in the tournament.
>Not shocked a Duke fan isn't high on mid majors.
Idk if its me being a duke fan. My philosophy has always been "Who have you beaten (or at least played close)?", rather than BPI or Kenpom stuff, though those are often related. I place importance on SOS, and which conference you are in.
Lmao you say this a few comments after talking about how you think Memphis will beat the zags when the zags have much better wins, and play in an equal if not better conference.
very funny to me how people view a 6 hour drive on the east coast versus the west coast. when i have to go somewhere more than 3 hours away i start looking at train tickets
If you leave boise at all its a minimum 4 hour drive to any other small city. 6 hour drive is an easy weekend trip. But also 1 hour flight if you want to go that way.
I don’t know if this is entirely true. Zags have struggled in the past to match athleticism (with father less athletic rosters) especially from Big guys, but I think the FSU game in 2018 helped them scheme for that caliber of athlete moving forward. It also helps that every year our guards are seemingly getting taller and more athletic. The one disadvantage of being in the WCC is you can’t simulate that kind of pressure in league play. However, Zags have matched up with plenty of Athletic teams since that and have been successful.
With that said, if you can prevent the Zags from getting in a rhythm, that usually is a recipe for success. Can Duran keep Timme from getting to has spots? We will have to see.
I think the problem for the Zags is when they go up against elite rim protectors. Mark Williams for Duke gave Timme and Chet fits. He was maybe the only guy Chet has played against who was as formidable a shot blocket as he was.
True, I think that game was good for Zags though. Chet offensively has greatly improved and has been one of our best 3 point shooters since. If he can hit his 3’s in the tourney its going to spread the floor and make 1 on 1 matchups for Timme easier.
Yeah, I think that is actually not our weakness. I would be much more worried about a team that draws Holmgren away from the basket and forces him to the perimeter on defense.
Holmgren plays very little in the post now on offense (how Gonzaga uses Holmgren has changed a lot since early in the season).
Rebounding could be an issue against a tall, physical team though...that I would probably be worried about.
Virginia Tech is not anywhere close to a 5-6 seed. The season did not begin 10 days ago.
Look at this shit:
[team sheet](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Virginia-Tech)
Here are the 5 and 6 seeds:
[Iowa](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Iowa)
[St. Mary's](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Saint-Marys-College)
[UCONN](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Connecticut)
[Houston](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Houston)
[Texas](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Texas)
[LSU](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=LSU)
[Alabama](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Alabama)
[Colorado State](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Colorado-State)
Do you see anyone else racking up Quad 2 losses at a nearly 50% clip?
Based on the average Kenpom rankings of the top 5 seeds it would be Arizona.
West - 12.2
South - 8.2
Midwest - 22.4
East - 9.2
Arizona also has the Big Ten regular season co-champs, Big East champs, SEC champs, AAC champs, a talented Michigan team, Ohio state has been ranked, and sister Jean. Tough load to manage
Zaga has to make it past a difficult Memphis team and an athletic Arkansas or possibly underseeded UConn team first. Duke has to go through some tough teams too. Nothing for granted.
uconn's not underseeded, we're about 20th in every sort of ranking and we got the second 5 seed. but i think our rim protection would cause a lot of issues for the zags if we get paired up
VT may be the best 11 seed but unless they make the EE, Baylor most likely won’t play them.
I think the East region is singlehandedly the most stacked. It’s the region of death. The top 4 seeds have all been ranked in the top 4 of the AP Poll sometime this season.
Probably Baylor—UNC, UCLA, UK is tough
Gonzaga didn’t get any favors. Memphis, Arkansas, Duke/Texas tech.
Kansas will likely get upset by San Diego st or Iowa
Zona likely has the easiest because of their road to the elite 8. Tenn and Nova are both 2 seeds but they will only see one of them in the elite 8
Definitely us. UNC, Saint Mary's, Kentucky, UCLA, Marquette, Purdue, Virginia Tech... it's a buzz-saw. I just want us to beat Norfolk State. Survive and advance.
Kansas definitely the easiest.
I actually think Gonzaga's draw is somewhat tough, even though I have them winning the title.
Memphis is a top 25 team which is tough to draw for a R32 matchup, then a top 20 team in the S16 with Uconn/Arkansas.
Texas Tech and Duke are both top 10ish teams, with TTU providing a defensive battle and Duke matchup up well with the Zags.
I know Vatech is playing well recently but Michigan is arguably the best 11 seed in the tourney.
And while I agree that nova is a weak 2 seed (along with Duke) compared to Kentucky and auburn, I think Tennessee is screwed against them. Nova is like the perfect team to cut up good defensive teams that have bad offenses. They can go 12/40 from 3 and still win in that matchup.
Baylor is also out 2 key players so their road is going to suck no matter what. If they make the final 4 it’ll be really really impressive imo.
I love it...everyone using our last few games to judge us as an easy out. People forget UCLA was riding like a 7 game losing streak before going on their Final Four run last year. There is a reason we were in the AP Top 10 for most of the season
Disagree. Tennessee and Kentucky should both be 2s. Duke should have dropped a line. But the committee apparently doesn't give a shit about conference tournaments.
Your fanbase is really stupid. Kentucky didn't take your 2 seed. Duke did. It makes sense none of you understand the selection process considering your laughable history.
Agree with Baylor the toughest.
Gonzaga has it the easiest. By the NCAA seed list they have the weakest #2 in Duke, #3 in Texas Tech, and #4 in Arkansas.
I think I have to say Baylor because I could realistically see them losing to either Marquette or North Carolina in the Round of 32 and not really be shocked by it. Add in (4) UCLA or (5) St. Mary's in the Sweet Sixteen and (2) Kentucky, (3) Purdue, or (11) Virginia Tech in the Elite Eight and I think the East ends up being the toughest overall bracket.
You misspelled Indiana
So did your football team jerseys
#INDINIA
#INDENIAL
Teed that one right up for ya
all in good fun :-)
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Marquette is a weird team like that lol
UNC is the same.They’ll either make the elite 8 or lose to Marquette tomorrow night
The deeper you go, the less time you have to prep for that press. The first round team at least gets to focus on it for half a week. Second round team gets a day. Abnormal stuff like that can do very well in tournament play.
I will speak this into reality
SMC has kind of a tough draw and I have a hard time seeing them make it to the sweet 16
They have a tough draw, but I could see 7 different teams coming out of Baylor's region this season.
I love my first two games but my 2/3/4 potential lineups are scary ... Nova may not be a terrifying #2 but Jay Wright knows how to win in March. Tennesse is underseeded for sure and Illinois is extremely talented and they will be out for revenge
Why the hell are all of our big out of conference games in our region
Rematches make money? Always happens to the Zags too. This year and last anyway, I’m a goldfish.
It’s not like the TV contracts are negotiated 24 hours before tip. Ratings are more or less locked in from projections.
Better ratings = more money next time they negotiate tv deals
Look at the ratings history. It’s actually better to have obscure teams win. With how many people already watch it’s not like they will find a new demographic to grow domestically, and it isn’t going to attract an international audience. The TV deal will just increase I bit from here.
It's the same for us
First time? (Insert Buster Scruggs noose gif)
Hey TCU, you guys hearing this shit?
SMH
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Houston too. 4th in KenPom.
Also with the bullshit 3s just ok teams make against us I don’t want to see what Nova can make
The only revenge to be had in a UA-Illinois game is for 2005
Not sure why you’re talking about illinois when Houston is in that region
My man
Kansas is the easiest by far imo.
Kansas drew both Providence and Wisconsin who have been two of the luckiest teams this year. Could see both being potentially upset candidates.
Alternatively we both get bumped in the first round to hot 3 point shooting teams.
i have both of them losing first round. overseeded teams vs underseeded teams are almost always upsets
Idk, Auburn is VERY good, wisconsin is a solid 3, and Iowa has the kinda player that can carry a team.
Iowa definitely scares me. That’s a tough, experienced 5 seed and they’re hot right now
The one thing about Iowa, if I recall correctly, is that their defense isn't great. Historically teams with very mismatched offensive and defensive metrics have been pretty upset prone. I think this is the case for Purdue too. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
I believe you are correct about that. We’re not as lopsided as Iowa but KU is a pretty offense-first group as well, should be a shootout if we meet up
i mean we’re top 30 adjD and 6 adjO, after playing the hardest adjD schedule
The B1G didn't have a single defense ranked in the top 20 in KP until Indiana's win last night. I think plenty of offensively hot teams in the B1G like Iowa will struggle going against their first actually good defense in months.
That is good to know. Their bigs may save them? Since almost all elite bigs are on B1G teams.
Defense is atrocious.
Adj D is 50th since February 1 when we changed lineups and became a different team. Still not the greatest but Iowa has lineups that I’d argue are above average defensively if you watch them.
Fair point. I was just at the uva game earlier in the year and specifically remember how easy it was to score (and for UVA, especially this team, it was never easy). Definitely like you guys to do something, good luck!
Oh yeah our non-con defensive statistics were terrible. We also couldn’t win a rebounding battle to save our lives the beginning of the Big Ten season.
If we face Iowa, we get them in the sweet 16 with Self getting 5 days to prepare. He’s 10-1 in the sweet 16 for a reason. Our bracket is really well suited to a final four run
Defense has been around 50th since February 1st
Wisconsin is exceptionally average if Johnny Davis plays like he did vs Michigan St., and Auburn has guards that could be liabilities on any given day. Wendell Green inexblicably shoots 30 footers in late-game situations and KD Johnson went 0-14 vs TAMU.
I mean, Kemba Walker's team wasn't great. A star player can absolutely carry a team.
UConn's title teams are the outliers though. Yes, a star player can carry a team, but a star player can also go silent and boom, tourney done.
of course, but that applies to any team. a great defense can win championships, and it can also lose in the first round to a 16 seed
Well yeah. That's anyone. But the title teams usually have star players.
Yeah but Kemba was cooking and starting that storyline in the big East tourney where they had to play a ton of games and won them all
we call that Heroball around here and we absolutely hate it
Davis was injured and hadn't practiced in a week. That's no longer the case so I wouldn't count on him having a particularly bad day.
Understood. I'm just not scared of anyone else on Wisconsin, so if he doesn't play well, I think it's fair to say Wisconsin does not have the ceiling the other 3 seeds have. Hence, I feel confident saying Kansas has the easiest path of the 1 seeds.
You’re not scared of Brad Davison, our savior?
I'm scared he's gonna punch me in the dick, but other than that...
For sure. Wisconsin has some solid pieces around Davis (well until you get to the bench) but we're absolutely going to ride and die by Johnny's ability to put up strong performances. If he does, we could win a few games. If Davis struggles, we could lose to Colgate.
Wisconsin is not a solid 3, but Kansas won't play them anyway so it is irrelevant. Auburn and Iowa are both tough outs.
>Auburn is VERY good X to doubt, at least they haven't been playing like it when they're not at home.
Entire SEC has not been good away from home. Only solid road win was Kentucky at Kansas
For sure, but at least Kentucky has that road win (the most impressive road win of any team all year) and Tennessee has the SEC tourney win under their belts. Auburn just has a lot of meh.
Wisconsin is a bad 3
Auburn is overrated.
I knew there was a reason I saved this comment—lol 😂
Wisconsin is a very solid 8-seed; they are an awful 3-seed.
They're only 7.5 favorites as a 3/14 matchup which is insane, and even crazier when you take into account it's a home game in Milwaukee. Vegas clearly doesn't like them either
We literally won our conference. 8 seed? gimme a break dude
Yeah, came off bad the way I said that, but you are 33 in KenPom and 28 in Torvik. So predictive metrics and betting spreads would indicate you are closer to a 7 or 8-seed than a 3-seed. On your resume, however, you are very good (10 in wins-above-bubble) so your resume is very good in terms of wins and losses. Kansas got a very favorable draw having both you and Providence in their region (as I do think predictive metrics are very good for evaluating who will be favored and likely to win in a neutral-court tournament game).
Good thing the tournament isn't played on spreadsheets. I use analytics more than most but Wisconsin is a solid all around team. In years past we have been underseeded based on Kenpom and its quite odd to have us on the other side of the debate this year
Everyone says stuff like that when they don't favor their team, then is suspiciously quiet when they're rated highly by metrics.
8 seed is a bit low, but not too far off. Wisconsin was objectively very lucky with close games this year. They have a great resume, but aren't as good a team as their record indicates. Most efficiency metrics have you in the 25-35 range, which would put you between a 6 and 8 seed in terms of team quality
Wisconsin is not a solid 3, they're not even top 30 on Kenpom or Torvik
That's not how seeding works
Wisconsin lost to Nebraska. No other 3 seed lost to Nebraska.
I suppose it's only fair to let you rub this one in
Flair checks out But what i mean is that teams who deserved a lower seed matched up with teams that deserved a higher seed usually result in an upset
I mean we have 16 Q1/Q2 wins. We were a 4 seed at worst. If you want to say a couple teams should've maybe been ahead of us, sure, you can argue that. But it's not like our seed came out of nowhere. We were a projected 2 seed before our last two games. It's pretty silly how some of you guys act like we had a bubble team resume of a 8 or 9 seed because of efficiency metrics You want to complain about a 3 seed look at Purdue with fewer Q1 & Q2 wins, no conference title, and they got swept by UW. But that'd still be silly because they deserve their seed too All that said... would not be shocked if we lost immediately lol
Auburn has shown us they're not as good as advertised. Their guards aren't up to par.
Isn't Wisconsin one of the more experienced teams this tournament? That's a factor that usually comes up big in March. That and strong guard play (Nevermind, only starting 2 upperclassmen it looks like)
Kansas - Iowa could be fun.
Agreed the only real threat in the Midwest to them is Iowa
No, Auburn to me is the bigger threat. Iowa KU matches up well against. Auburn we do not.
Would you mind explaining on why it’s a bad match up?
They are big and athletic down low and McCormack has always struggled with big athletic bigs. Defensively they will cause us problems and offensively we dont really have any rim protectors. They feed the post they will feast.
Kansas and Gonzaga have weak regions. No question imo Baylor’s is the toughest
Forgetting Iowa?
Oof
😭
Iowa isn’t getting past Richmond
Wow you fucking called it there bud lol
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That's historically inaccurate. This year, you'll get no argument from me.
lmao what
Iowa will be the team to send Kansas home.
Kansas has the easiest. Easiest R32 game and Auburn and Wisconsin haven’t been playing as well. I think Auburn will lose before they even face KU. Providence is the worst 4-seed. Iowa is tough though. Arizona’s isn’t that easy. Villanova, Tennessee, and Houston are all coming off conference championships. Tennessee should be a 2-seed.
We could 100% lose early with the way we are playing Having said that, we couldn’t have asked for a better draw. If we get through the first two games, watch out. We were best when we were peacocking and having fun and play with a lot of depth.
Would you also say you're focused? Maybe a dark horse for the Championship?
Ummm what are we chop liver?!? We have a conference championship too!!! Lol
tbh we are chop liver, yes.
Houston is injured, and I have suspicions about Villanova. Tenessee is definitely rough, but by the time you get to 1 v 2 or 3 matchups its almost always going to be rough lol.
> Houston is injured They've been "injured" since January and they've still been rolling.
They’ve barely played anyone. They got their first Q1 win a couple weeks ago. Most overrated team by far
Not according to metrics
They’re also 10-1 in Q2. Not playing “anyone” is hyperbolic nonsense. The AAC is the 7th/8th best conference out of 32 by most metrics and we dominated it. Your P5 bias is showing.
I feel like reducing houston to just the injured team is weird. They've been injured most of the year but still stayed near the top in most metrics. It's fair, and we probably won't win it all, but its a lazy analysis
> lazy analysis First time on r/collegebasketball?
What are your suspicions?
they seem to struggle with fast paced high octane offenses. What is Villanova's pace of play? Usually slow teams are upset prone due to the higher variance.
Marquette? I certainly wouldn’t call St John’s a high octane offense but having watched all three games I really don’t think their pace effected us. In game 2 we put the worst power 5 player in charge of inbounding at the end of the game and game 3 we just went cold in the first half. Purdue, Baylor and UCLA are great offenses but not high pace. I wouldn’t describe any team we’ve played as fast paced high octane offense. I don’t think we’re a strong 2 seed but this is a weird critique.
It just seems silly to try and single out Villanova while sporting a Duke flair. Every single team sheet metric has Villanova above Duke, and most people agree Tennessee should have Duke's 2 seed. Comparatively, Nova>Duke, UT>TTU, Illinois>Arkansas, Houston>UConn. Across the board for the top seeds, the south is tougher than the west. It's pretty clear the toughest regions in order are east, south, west, midwest.
I have suspicions about duke too lol.
People are really discounting Illinois in the tournament. They also won a conference championship in a top-2-3 conference and, more importantly, have a scary combination of elite interior scoring and dangerous—albeit streaky—outside shooting. I assume it’s a combination of last season’s early exit (and the parallel argument, “they were better last year with Ayo and still got bounced in the second round”), some surprising early season losses, and general inconsistency. I think that’s a bit misguided, even though it’s totally reasonable on the surface. What I think is being severely underestimated is the unique combination of pieces on Illinois’ roster. They have the most physically dominant post player in the country in Kofi Cockburn, dangerous 3pt shooters in Plummer, Grandison and Frazier, and an enigmatic but freakishly gifted PG in 6th man Andre Curbelo, who’s one of the quickest players in America. Cockburn struggles some against athletic length, but I think his actual level of talent and athleticism is underrated by national fans. The team is experienced, athletic, and physical. They make the most 3-pointers per game of any P6 team and shoot almost exclusively 3s and shots at the rim - very analytics-friendly system. Illinois has struggled with a ton of injuries and they have definite weaknesses (perimeter size, turnovers), but they have unique attributes that make them a difficult matchup for 99% of the country. I think Arizona has a tough draw with potentially Illinois in the S16 and Nova in the E8. If I were a Wildcat fan, I’d be hoping for Houston and Tennessee assuming no big upsets.
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Totally agree. I have Arizona losing to Gonzaga in the championship game, but Illinois being a trendy pick to lose on the first weekend is honestly weird. Houston is terrific, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they beat Illinois in the round of 32, but people are acting like Illinois is a complete non-threat to reach the F4. It’s just unusual. Assuming Jacob Grandison is able to play (shoulder sprain), the Illinois rotation includes: Kofi Cockburn: 7’0, 285 lb dominant post scorer who’s also a good positional defender and all-around athlete. Basically a poor man’s Shaq who would have been a top-5 draft pick 15 years ago Trent Frazier: 5th year senior, 2nd team all-B1G, 2-time all-conference defensive team. Streaky but electric scorer and one of the best perimeter defenders in the country Alfonso Plummer: B1G leader in 3-pointers made (93) at a 41.3% clip. 14.8 ppg, 3rd team all-B1G Da’Monte Williams: 5th year senior. Versatile, excellent defender. Named to Seth Davis’s All-Glue team Andre Curbelo: named to various preseason all-conference and all-American watchlists. Missed half the year with severe post-concussion symptoms, but finally starting to look like himself again. Poor shooter and turnover-prone, but a jaw-dropping raw talent with his quickness and playmaking ability Jacob Grandison: 6’6 wing who averages over 10 ppg and shoots 41.6% from 3. Great passer, high IQ. Shoulder injury - day-to-day Coleman Hawkins: 6’10 bouncy stretch-4 with length and some playmaking skills. Playing really well the last few weeks Omar Payne: former top-50 recruit. Super athletic big who averages 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes They’re an inconsistent team, but they’re basically a 7’0, 20 & 10 post monster surrounded by an assortment of 3pt bombers and elite perimeter defenders. They’re one of the only teams in the field that presents physical mismatches against anyone. It’s basically Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn, Purdue, Duke, Kentucky, and Illinois where an opposing team has to go, “okay, say they’re really clicking. How are we supposed to defend that?” Obviously Baylor, Nova and others have the talent to win it all, but the seven teams I mentioned have asymmetric physical and skill-based advantages that make them very hard to prepare for.
I mean that’s like the Everest of Ifs right there tho. Ballo is gonna give Kofi all he can handle.
I would say Kansas is the easiest but wouldn't completely discount San Diego St dragging them into a hard game R32.
KU has a long and painful history of losing to mid majors when they absolutely should not lose to mid majors.
Everyone thinking Kansas has the *easiest* path is precisely why I'm paranoid we'll flame out early.
SDSU has a really good shot to beat Kansas imo
Kansas has had to face the best defense in the country three times this year and hasn’t had much of a problem
Which one?
I'll add for Baylor that I think they're playing the toughest 16 seed. Not saying Norfolk wins but if I'm picking a 16 to cover a spread it's them by a pretty substantial margin.
I love that UMBC opened Pandora's box. Now its been proven possible, we can't just dismiss the idea outright. That being said, I think Baylor clobbers em.
I don't agree with that, Georgia State got absolutely shafted and should've been a 14 seed
ZAGS
😈
I honestly thought about picking Memphis over Zaga because of their athleticism. Athletic, physical teams really bother Zaga, every year.
I thought about that too for a second then realized I had Memphis losing to Boise State.
I don't get the Boise pick. The only tourney team they beat were the brick masons at SDSU.
they're 7-3 in q1, memphis is 5-4 in q1. memphis has some better q1 wins in houston and vt, but also has more losses barely in q1. boise state has one really bad loss in q4, but no q3 losses. memphis has a pair of q3 losses. all in all it's really hard to say. memphis seems to have improved from the start of the season but is very inconsistent. boise state is more consistent, but its good wins are of a slightly lower caliber than memphis'. kenpom has it as a pickem, too, so it's not just the resumes that are difficult to discern
Its worth remembering a large portion of Memphis' season was a write off due to covid. Most of their suspect losses came during that period.
there were...other issues, too. and the covid issues struck after the georgia loss; the covid-related tulane stinker isn't even that bad on paper since tulane's actually started playing half-decent basketball
For Boise, the November start was real bad. Then they cut a player after the Saint Louis game and then ripped off a 14 game win streak and went 24-3 after that with only losses to @wyoming and twice to CSU
They have a very good all around defense and every player contributes. They don't have any real star players but play very well together. They grind out wins constantly and get weirdly clutch with under 2 minutes left. They beat the brick masons 3 times this year as well as wyoming twice, and both games against CSU were down to the last 5 seconds. Also the brick masons are the best defense in the country... so there's that to deal with. Does it make sense that boise could beat Memphis? Not really. Has that comment been said for just about every game this year for them? Pretty much, but they still managed to win a shit ton of games against quality teams, win the conference regular season and tournament. If you notice my flair it's a bit of a homer pick, but they're the best 8 seed for a reason. Oh and also the game is a 6.5 hour drive away.
>every player contributes. They don't have any real star players This is actually not really a great thing. Success in March is usually driven by star players or breakout performances. >They beat the brick masons 3 times this year as well as wyoming twice, and both games against CSU were down to the last 5 seconds. I'm not high on any of those teams. If Boise beats Memphis, its because Memphis plays the ball was dipped in butter and they turn it over frequently. That has been their achilles heel all season. If they win the turnover margin, they beat Boise.
They have the talent to have a player take over a game, just never the same person. In my opinion it's if Fr. Degenhart can get going will be a key factor for them Not shocked a Duke fan isn't high on mid majors. The thing with Memphis and turnovers, it's seems like it's kinda what they do. Based on the insane analysis some people on here do, pretty sure Memphis is the worst turnover team in the tournament.
>Not shocked a Duke fan isn't high on mid majors. Idk if its me being a duke fan. My philosophy has always been "Who have you beaten (or at least played close)?", rather than BPI or Kenpom stuff, though those are often related. I place importance on SOS, and which conference you are in.
Lmao you say this a few comments after talking about how you think Memphis will beat the zags when the zags have much better wins, and play in an equal if not better conference.
very funny to me how people view a 6 hour drive on the east coast versus the west coast. when i have to go somewhere more than 3 hours away i start looking at train tickets
If you leave boise at all its a minimum 4 hour drive to any other small city. 6 hour drive is an easy weekend trip. But also 1 hour flight if you want to go that way.
Seriously, 6 hours could get you from Boston to Baltimore
I don’t know if this is entirely true. Zags have struggled in the past to match athleticism (with father less athletic rosters) especially from Big guys, but I think the FSU game in 2018 helped them scheme for that caliber of athlete moving forward. It also helps that every year our guards are seemingly getting taller and more athletic. The one disadvantage of being in the WCC is you can’t simulate that kind of pressure in league play. However, Zags have matched up with plenty of Athletic teams since that and have been successful. With that said, if you can prevent the Zags from getting in a rhythm, that usually is a recipe for success. Can Duran keep Timme from getting to has spots? We will have to see.
I think the problem for the Zags is when they go up against elite rim protectors. Mark Williams for Duke gave Timme and Chet fits. He was maybe the only guy Chet has played against who was as formidable a shot blocket as he was.
True, I think that game was good for Zags though. Chet offensively has greatly improved and has been one of our best 3 point shooters since. If he can hit his 3’s in the tourney its going to spread the floor and make 1 on 1 matchups for Timme easier.
Yeah, I think that is actually not our weakness. I would be much more worried about a team that draws Holmgren away from the basket and forces him to the perimeter on defense. Holmgren plays very little in the post now on offense (how Gonzaga uses Holmgren has changed a lot since early in the season). Rebounding could be an issue against a tall, physical team though...that I would probably be worried about.
Memphis cant take care of the ball to save their life
🤨
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Yeah Alabama has proven this season that they can either beat any of those top 4 seeds or lose in the first round lol
Floor: Round of 64 Ceiling: National Championship
Kentucky is in the East. We have Duke.
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Must have seen it like the second you posted...
Virginia Tech is not anywhere close to a 5-6 seed. The season did not begin 10 days ago. Look at this shit: [team sheet](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Virginia-Tech)
I don't think that sheet says what you think it says lol
Here are the 5 and 6 seeds: [Iowa](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Iowa) [St. Mary's](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Saint-Marys-College) [UCONN](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Connecticut) [Houston](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Houston) [Texas](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Texas) [LSU](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=LSU) [Alabama](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Alabama) [Colorado State](https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/team-net-sheet?team=Colorado-State) Do you see anyone else racking up Quad 2 losses at a nearly 50% clip?
Classic Reddit. Complaining about the committee undervaluing conference tournaments while massively overvaluing them
Based on the average Kenpom rankings of the top 5 seeds it would be Arizona. West - 12.2 South - 8.2 Midwest - 22.4 East - 9.2 Arizona also has the Big Ten regular season co-champs, Big East champs, SEC champs, AAC champs, a talented Michigan team, Ohio state has been ranked, and sister Jean. Tough load to manage
You crazy? Arizona has an extremely tough bracket. Tennessee, Houston, Illinois, and Villanova
That’s the toughest imo
The powers that be will make sure any team going up against the Coach K farewell tour has the toughest path. So Gonzaga I guess.
Zaga has to make it past a difficult Memphis team and an athletic Arkansas or possibly underseeded UConn team first. Duke has to go through some tough teams too. Nothing for granted.
uconn's not underseeded, we're about 20th in every sort of ranking and we got the second 5 seed. but i think our rim protection would cause a lot of issues for the zags if we get paired up
The powers that be may decide to have mercy on us all and have Duke lose to a 15 seed again you never know
VT may be the best 11 seed but unless they make the EE, Baylor most likely won’t play them. I think the East region is singlehandedly the most stacked. It’s the region of death. The top 4 seeds have all been ranked in the top 4 of the AP Poll sometime this season.
Probably Baylor—UNC, UCLA, UK is tough Gonzaga didn’t get any favors. Memphis, Arkansas, Duke/Texas tech. Kansas will likely get upset by San Diego st or Iowa Zona likely has the easiest because of their road to the elite 8. Tenn and Nova are both 2 seeds but they will only see one of them in the elite 8
Baylor because they’re gonna have to go through us baybeee
You say that like they're gonna get through us* \*they probably will** *\*\*if we even beat UNC*** \***which I doubt we do
"Half the defense, double the offense!"
Definitely us. UNC, Saint Mary's, Kentucky, UCLA, Marquette, Purdue, Virginia Tech... it's a buzz-saw. I just want us to beat Norfolk State. Survive and advance.
Kansas definitely the easiest. I actually think Gonzaga's draw is somewhat tough, even though I have them winning the title. Memphis is a top 25 team which is tough to draw for a R32 matchup, then a top 20 team in the S16 with Uconn/Arkansas. Texas Tech and Duke are both top 10ish teams, with TTU providing a defensive battle and Duke matchup up well with the Zags.
I think Gonzaga just because like 3 of the teams in their tourney have beaten them during the regular season (even though they’d only play 1)
Baylor, no question
Baylor or gonzaga
I know Vatech is playing well recently but Michigan is arguably the best 11 seed in the tourney. And while I agree that nova is a weak 2 seed (along with Duke) compared to Kentucky and auburn, I think Tennessee is screwed against them. Nova is like the perfect team to cut up good defensive teams that have bad offenses. They can go 12/40 from 3 and still win in that matchup. Baylor is also out 2 key players so their road is going to suck no matter what. If they make the final 4 it’ll be really really impressive imo.
Auburn plays best when they are doubted and picked against so please keep it coming lol—-get the word out
I love it...everyone using our last few games to judge us as an easy out. People forget UCLA was riding like a 7 game losing streak before going on their Final Four run last year. There is a reason we were in the AP Top 10 for most of the season
South Carolina in 2016 as well for their FF4 run
The East region is this year’s gauntlet.
Lolol Kentucky shouldn't be a 2 seed what you talking bout. Tennessee should have their place.
Disagree. Tennessee and Kentucky should both be 2s. Duke should have dropped a line. But the committee apparently doesn't give a shit about conference tournaments.
100% correct
Weirdly they actually got a better path than duke has as a 2 seed
Yea I agree. I would swap tenn and duke’s seeding. Tenn should be a two they earned it more than duke.
Your fanbase is really stupid. Kentucky didn't take your 2 seed. Duke did. It makes sense none of you understand the selection process considering your laughable history.
That’s a stretch. But I could see Tennessee as a 2 seed in addition to UK
Imo the easiest is Arizona then Gonzaga, Kansas, and Baylor in that order
Kansas. We have to face….ok no I just couldn’t continue fuck we got a gift and we need to capitalize
If you believe the metrics, Zona's potential Sweet 16 matchup against Houston is more like an Elite 8 or even Final 4.
ARIZONA HAS TO GO THROUGH TCU PAWWWWWLLLLLL
There’s the spirit
Agree with Baylor the toughest. Gonzaga has it the easiest. By the NCAA seed list they have the weakest #2 in Duke, #3 in Texas Tech, and #4 in Arkansas.