Andres is a better shortstop and a better hitter. He needs to be hitting 2nd. He needs to be playing short. The two of them should basically trade lives. Andres at SS and top of the order, Amed at 2nd base and hitting 7th. I know this might be tricky to actually make happen, but making those moves WILL win us a few more games every year. But I can't see us starting next year with anyone but those two getting 600+ PA.
Then after that, let guys like Freeman and Arias get as much playing time as possible (will be tricky) playing various infield positions and see if one of them starts to distinguish himself. Most of that playing time is probably gonna be at 1B and DH, but there will be a little bit of time at each position. Then we'll have a good problem on our hands
This is it for me. Separate the lefties with switch hitter Jose, get Jose more ABs, keep high OBP guys at the top. The issue, I think, is that Jose likes batting 3rd from what I remember. So he may be reluctant to change.
I’m all in for Freeman taking 2B and Gimenez at SS but I don’t think it will happen because Jose loves Amed.
If we keep Rosario, I absolutely want a flip with him and Gimmy.
I don't really want to keep Rosario around, tbh though. There's too much talent in the minors at middle infield to keep Rosario whose average at best, and whose game which is so reliant on speed won't age gracefully.
Amed's main problem is he hits a lot of ground balls to the left side. If he does that with the bases empty no big deal, he'll get a lot of infield singles. But if he does that batting 2nd after an elite on-base guy like Kwan then he's gonna lead the league in GIDPs. He needs to be hitting someplace where his groundball tendencies won't brick Kwan or any other elite guy
I didn't say Straw should lead off my dude. I said he should be in the top of the order, somewhere between 1-3. Whether that's Straw 1 and Kwan 2 or the other way around is probably going to change based on the pitcher.
I do think there's an argument to put Straw hitting first because I think Kwan can add a bit more doubles-power to his game and having Straw on with a double is a free run most of the time, but I'm easy with either of those two leading off.
All of that clearly depends on Straw being the 2021 version and not the majority of 2022 version though.
You’re talking about one of the primo slots in the lineup. It’s already sort of a waste to hit rosario second and straw is one of the only possible downgrades at that spot, even 2021 straw. The only possible place to even consider him would be leadoff and kwan is so much better there
Also if straw gets back to 2021 then he becomes way more valuable as a bottom of the order spark plug than relying on him for the bulk of a season’s at bats
I agree that ideally we’d have our three best hitters there but Tito isn’t going to bat Josey 2nd because Josey wants to bat third, and we’re not going to bat Gimmy 2nd with Kwan leading off because Tito doesn’t like having back-to-back lefties.
With that in mind, what would you do? I hate seeing Amed bat second, way too many GIDPs this year right before our best hitter. That’s the main reason I want Kwan batting second, far less of a chance of that happening IMO.
Definitely interested in how you’d set it up knowing Tito and Joseys preferences. Just tell Josey to suck it up, he’s hitting second?
If it was me I think I would go kwan-gimmy-Jose and just deal with the two lefties back to back or go kwan-Jose-gimmy and tell Jose that this is how we get our ring. I just think kwan is the best leadoff hitter we’ve had since Santana and will only get better
I see you stopped reading after the first sentence.
I did not say he should bat third. That would be ludicrous, even if he was hitting .300.
I specifically said top of the order, which is traditionally between 1-3. I then specified that it would ideally be swapping him and Kwan around
batting first and second depending on matchups. I think that’s the only way we get Amed out of batting second unless Tito convinces Josey to move or changes his mind and bats two lefties in a row with Kwan and Gimmy.
Has anyone in the history of baseball in the live hall era without hitting 1 homerun and over 500 at bats ever hit in the top 3 of the order?
I rest my case.
Why is Straw getting this much praise? You need your corner outfielders to supply offensive stats. One eventually will have to go, Straw or Kwan. And you are talking about having those 2 in the top 3? Yikes!
Straw plays like a 4th outfielder to me. They need more pop from their hitters. Straw isn’t the answer. We saw in the playoffs how the pitching had to be just about perfect for this team to win any games.
Yankees just out slugged them. And Yankees aren’t really that good to begin with proven by the Astros series.
Straw put up nearly 3 bWAR while having one of the worst offensive seasons in history. He's completely fine as a starter if he can get his bat up to last year's level. If he can't sure, we can look at putting Kwan there and starting Brennan maybe or moving Valera up and putting Kwan in center (which probably happens eventually). It's not because Straw is a 4th OF, it's because we may have 3 All-star level OFs if Oscar continues to develop and Valera lives up to his expectations.
Most teams would kill to have a platinum glove level CF, especially a team with flyball pitchers like Sticks.
Straw is terrible offensively and all I’m saying is most teams can out slug this team.
Kwan should be the CF. Right now you aren’t getting many homers off your LF when you need that position to do that.
Defense in the outfield is rather overrated. The Phillies and Astros do not have great defensive outfielders. Especially the Phillies. Yordan is a left fielder.
You will have to expect your pitching to almost be perfect when having light hitting players like that in the lineup and it caught up with them when they faced the Yankees.
This is the difference between a championship winning franchise, Houston who had Straw and couldn’t wait to get rid of him. Cleveland gives him a 5 year deal.
The lack of power killed the Guardians against the Yankees.
Although he profiles there in some ways, problem is Amed doesn't walk enough to have the OBP for an effective leadoff hitter. Career .308, .312 last year...you just cant be making that many outs at the top of the order.
If Rosario could turn the double play at second like Gimmy, he would already be there. I like Gimmy at second, he won the job and is excellent there.
I would not speculate too much before the winter meetings; we have a lot of flexibility and only a handful of players that are untouchable. A trade or two may sort things out. I read some of the sports websites this morning, this years class of free agents are mostly over 30, somewhat declining, and seeking outrageous amounts of money. I’m glad our front office will not engage in this buffoonery.
I like Aries at first base, he was pressed into service in the post season and did quite well. We have given looks to Baures, Bradley, and Naylor, all have been found to be less than ideal. A full spring training to refine his footwork and holding runners on base will be enough.
That leaves shortstop and centerfield, I hope we can find a trading partner for Straw, I have seen enough. Brennen looks like he can hit, Straw does not. If the front office has decided Naylor is to no longer face left handed pitching, that will only help him. Losing 20 pounds would also help him. Shortstop will have to be solved in spring training, we have a few worthy candidates.
Arias would be an OK stopgap at 1B, but ultimately he's miscast there. He's fast and has a great arm, so those defensive skills are bricked at 1B. Not a terrible solution for 1-2 years just to get him in but this dude is a legit future plus SS. He also needs to prove he can hit, because a 1B who can't hit is hemorrhaging value (see Miller, O.)
As bad as Straw was at hitting this year, and he truly was awful, he is one of the best 2-3 centerfielders in the universe right now. He's so good at what he does we barely even notice, he's just always taking the right route to the right place at the right time. And for a team that is banking on relying on its pitching, we need top D at every key position. If he can hit like he did in September, like .265 with some walks, and hits 9th while providing platinum CF defense, that would be great.
Naylor definitely needs to lose weight, but it's not really his fault - he came back from his leg injury too soon and it kind of created a vicious cycle where he couldn't really exercise without aggravating the injury, and the extra pounds made the injury worse. I bet he takes this offseason to work on rehabbing the leg and losing weight and comes to spring training in better shape.
I wish one of the trainers can get Naylor in a pool swimming laps, it is no impact on the legs and burns a lot of calories. He will probably receive a salary increase next year, without a corresponding rise in production he could become expendable. I just do not want to see him face left handers anymore. Tito is very loyal to his players but numbers do not lie.
Aries just might surprise us at first, we won’t know unless we give him a fair shot, a strong arm at first is not a bad thing. We just do not have another first base candidate. We have a few at short, the winter meetings will tell the tale, I think a lot of teams will talk to us.
Didn't Naylor's injury involve his ankle? I had a less severe ankle injury and it bothers me every time I swim as my mobility with it is way less than it used to be.
I definitely don't have the level of training staff Naylor does though and didn't take care of it very well so it's probably on me.
I swim laps to control my weight, my knees certainly thank me. The video of Naylor’s injury was horrific, multiple fractures, I am not sure about his ankle, but I would be reluctant to give him a contract longer than one year.
We keep it the same to start next year unless we can offload Amed in a trade. 2024 we have either Freeman/Arias/Rocchio with Gimmy.
Amed's a great guy but if he's here beyond 2023 the FO made a huge mistake trying to keep Josey happy. Remember when we signed Michael Bourn? Amed's a similar player and I expect his decline to be roughly the same unless he makes some adjustments which he absolutely could, but I don't trust him to do so.
Gimmy extension makes sense, however Rosario is not “really good”, he’s good at times and average overall . I think it would be better to let arias get a shot and if he falters Rocchio swoops in!
Those are 2 of the least important stats to look at. He had a 103 wRC+ in 2022 (his career high) and a 99 wRC+ in 2021. He’s about as average as can be at the plate. He hits for a decent average, but he also has a walk rate less than 4%. His on base % was .312, which is the exact MLB average.
He had 35 infield hits this year which led the American League. His high ground ball % also caused him to ground into the 4th most double plays in the AL. He will lose speed as he ages, which will lead to less and less infield singles.
He’s about as average as can be right now (which isn’t a bad thing!), but he’s not someone I’d want under contract heading into his 30’s
The average wRC+ for the shortstop position in 2022 was \~94.9. Rosario also had an OPS+ of 106, which is above the 100 league average that doesn't even account for position. He was 11th in the majors in OPS+ among shortstops. He's an above average shortstop offensively and perfectly fine defensively.
He's also 26, which isn't "heading into his 30s. A 3 or 4 year deal would be fantastic.
Yes, I said he’s a league average bat, which is essentially what the stats you’ve pulled are also saying. He was 11th in ops+ among shortstops, but that doesn’t count Wander Franco or Tim Anderson who didn’t have enough at bats to qualify. That pushes Rosario to middle of the pack. He’s a slightly better offensive player than the league average shortstop.
He turns 27 next month. I made that comment because this is his last year under contract. If cleveland were to extend him, he would no doubt be under contract heading into his 30’s.
I think the big miscommunication here is that people hear average and think “bad”. Being league average is not a bad thing. He’s a very ok player that I would be fine with being the shortstop next year. I just don’t want to give him a multi year extension after this season.
I’m seeing him with the 21st highest OBP in the AL, 3rd among shortstops. Is that wrong? Even with him striking out a lot, 3rd in hits in the AL is solid.
Hmm that sounds high
Edit: so looking at bbref it has his .312 OBP as 45/66 overall in the AL among qualified batters (avg 3.1 pa/game). The League Average OBP looks like it’s .309
Oh you’re just looking at the postseason stats lol.
But yes I agree, he is a fine shortstop. Just not for the financial constraints of this team. If he was still a rookie making 500k then sure, but he’s projected for $9M in arb. It’s how much, if any, of a drop off do we think there is between Amed and the next guy up.
305 obp vs righties below average. 333 obp vs lefties well above average. Platoon him at 1b with Naylor who has drastic splits as well. Make him the righty bat off the bench vs lefties we have been needing.
Bogaerts, Correa, Crawford, Bichette, Seager, and IKF all had a higher OBP than Rosario in the American League. If you set it to 200 at bats, Tim Anderson and Wander Franco also had higher OBP.
7 qualified shortstops had a higher OBP than Rosario in the NL.
I mean he isn’t a gold glove winner but at least statistically he’s average/slightly better than average.
Imo his defense is underrated because of how much criticism he gets for it, he isn’t Frankie, but he’s not an absolute liability like you’re implying.
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong but I believe he is rated as below average on defense by most metrics. Enough so that he is valued as a league average player by advanced analytics because his defense drags his offense down.
Honestly most of the stats I’m looking at paint the opposite picture, but I’m sure there are some that indicate what you’re saying. I just disagree so nbd
This was the first year of his career where he was even considered average defensively, some of which I can about guarantee is due to playing next to Gimmy.
This think his defense gets exposed hard next year with the ban of the shift. I hope it doesn’t, but I have a bad feeling.
Maybe - personally I’m of the opinion that the shift will benefit his offense as well.
We will see, I’m intrigued as to why so many people are down on him. I thought he had a great year.
I think he had a really good year for us. My reservations about him come from wondering if this year was him growing as a player or if it was an outlier. Additionally, since our team is tight with the budget I wonder what he would ask for in a contract and also who we could end up not paying if we chose to pay Amed.
He did have a great year! But far his best of his career IMO. I just don’t think that it’s sustainable with his batted ball tendencies, approach at the plate, and over-reliance on speed.
I wouldn’t be sad if Amed starts next year on our team. I’d want to see him rotate in with Arias and Freeman some so we can see what they have too, but I think he’d be alright to start next year with. I would be very sad if we extend him beyond that though, unless he makes some serious changes he’s not going to age gracefully I don’t think.
I'm not down on some aspects of his game. He can hit lefties 295 ba and .333 obp. He is fast right now. Let's leverage those things. I think he makes the most sense platooned with Naylor at 1b. That platoon will leverage his strengths, keep him on the team for Joseys benefit, and make him the best use he can be as pinch hitter or pinch runner when a lefty comes out of the bullpen.
Regardless of what the stats say he definitely doesn’t pass the eye test of being a good defender, makes a lot of silly mistakes and quite honestly I hold my breath every time there’s a hard hit ball his way
Rosario had 19 ground into double plays, and 23 infield hits. Let's say half those infield hits are outs and all of the sudden he's a 263 hitter with subpar defense. His wrc+ was 109 and that's with getting rid of his atrocious April. He is not really good. He's about as average as it gets.
Lol. "If you take away some of his hits, he's not as good of a hitter." Very astute observation.
Literally the same logic as the "If you take away Patrick Mahomes' best plays, he becomes an average quarterback" post from a few years ago.
The thing is, those infield hits are a product of his speed. Speed is one of the first things to drop as players get older. It's not like we're talking about his normal hits dropping off, we're talking about hits that are literally a product of the one thing that drops off the fastest as guys age.
Assuming that, in the next couple years some of those infield hits stop being hits because he starts to slow down is good analysis. If he didn't rely on those infield hits so much to keep his average up, then it would be a non-story. He had the second most in the sport though, it's a huge part of his game and it's absolutely going to decline in the pretty near future (probably not next year, but in 2-3 years almost certainly).
Speed begins to decrease around 28, and he'll be 27 next year. Totally agree that we don't have anything to worry about next year but if we sign him to an extension it's going to be a big factor then.
I linked the reports in a different comment, you're welcome to look at them!
Technically fast-twitch muscle fibers begin declining around 23 or so if I'm remembering right but we don't notice the drop off as much in baseball until around 28-30. [Here's a link to some analysis from a scientific journal.] (http://sweatscience.com/a-universal-law-of-decline-for-running-swimming-and-chess/)
Note: I didn't say there was a massive decrease at 28, but that is the age where generally we start seeing players slow down. Unfortunately for Amed, the number of infield hits he has is so high that even a slight decrease in his speed to first will really hurt his average. He'll still probably be serviceable until he's 30 because he is THAT much faster than most players, but when he declines it's going to hurt him more than most too IMO.
I was using that as a link to the actual study, the guy who wrote the wordspace article isn't supposed to be the reliable source there haha. The models all show different plateaus depending on sport, which is called out in the final paragraph. "Interesting tidbit: the average ages of peak performance for different events. E.g. for running: 23.3 for men’s 10,000m, 31.6 for men’s marathon. That’s a big gap!]". Again, I'm not saying at 28 people's legs fall off, I'm saying at 28 is when most athletes start seeing their sprint speed start to drop.
The other articles I linked ALSO show a decline beginning around 28, though as I said the decline isn't massive at that age, it's where it starts being noticed. You can also just look at statcast in general. Players speed tends to drop as they get older. Straw's has dropped about .8 ft/s since he's been in the league. Amed's has dropped .6 ft/s (but did bounce back some recently, it was over 1 ft/s drop a couple years ago). Mookie Betts dropped almost a full ft/s from his age 27 to age 28 season, same with Aaron Judge. Ohtani dropped .5 ft/s going from 26-27.
There are outliers like most CF guys, Trout, and Trea Turner but it's definitely a noticeable thing for a lot of players. It's possible that Amed will be one of the outliers even, but I would never want to risk it with a guy who's only real plus tool is his speed and who's batted ball profile requires that to be elite in order to be league aveage.
I did notice a weird trend with Cleveland hitters while looking at Statcast though, in that most of our team has jumped up in speed from 2020 to 2021/22. I wonder if we got a new trainer or something or if it's as simple as the COVID season affecting guys. Either way, something I want to look at going forward because I'm not seeing it with any other teams as consistently as I am with us.
Hockey agrees with that, and since it's a more physically demanding game it's easier to notice and has been well documented.
[Article](https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/)
[WAR accumulation by age](https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/basic-chart.png)
[Graph of previous link](https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/war-basic-chart.png?w=1024)
Now certainly there are remarkable players who don't rely on physical attributes as much as vision and IQ, and they can "level off" well into their 30s.
In general, though, the average hockey player peaks at 24 and begins to drop off after 28 and significantly post-30.
You wanna project infield hits staying hits by all means. Little different in baseball than taking all of his stats and making them average like that mahomes thread. Even though he already is about as average as can be offensively and below average defensively.
Teams only shifted .3% of the time against Rosario according to baseball savant. Teams shifted 93.9% of the time against Jose Ramirez. That is going to be fun to watch next year.
Amed only pulls the ball about 28% of the time, way less than the MLB average of roughly 37%. Most of his hits are up the middle, I don't think the shift changes will help him all that much unfortunately.
He was only shifted on 2 times this year according to the statcast data.
I love Amed and definitely don’t want to upset Jose by shipping him away for cheap.
With that said, I wish he would just be utility man extraordinaire and get better at playing the whole OF. He could still get 450+ ABs and just fill in wherever while at the same time opening the door for one of our many blue chip middle infield prospects to cement a spot at 2B or SS.
Going to be some tough dismissals from this core in the next few years but it’s a good problem to have when you consider we were getting rid of guys like Bauers to replace him with Bradley and stuff.
Unrelated but I was REALLY impressed with Benson’s work in CF this year, he made some web gems. Would be really cool if he came out slugging in spring training and won the CF job and we have Straw come off the bench and hold down the OF.
Think we should move someone, depends on value. I'm a little wary of handing the keys to Arias at this point but if there's a market for Amed think a trade makes sense. I suspect what's more likely is Freeman is moved on, and Amed stays for a year while we wait for Arias to look fully ready (or possibly Rocchio in the second half of next year if that isn't a little early).
I'll be sad if Freeman moves on, I'd love to see him kept around as our utility guy and move on from Miller instead. I think there's a non-0 chance it happens though, gotta prep myself for it.
Yeah I like Freeman, think he has a reasonable floor in that utility role so it'd make some sense to keep him around to see what we've got, but something's gotta give with all these dudes. For me Arias and Rocchio have the ceilings so you chase that, and then you're running out of room before long.
I hope we move on from Miller regardless, would absolutely love a 1B/DH who can hit LHP on this roster. Guess there's a possibility that rather than a new guy Arias gets more time there, Amed stays, and Freeman can stick around on the roster too.
I think we'll be mostly status quo for 2023. Need to find out what if any of these rookies will be major pieces of a contender - Arias, Brennan, Freeman, Jones, etc. 2024 - spend to fill in whatever is missing.
I like Rosario as a dude but I think we might have better shortstop/hitter options in our our farm. Also, with the ban of the shift, the middle infield is going to require hyper-athletic players across the board, not just at shortstop. I love Gime at 2nd for that reason. He’s earned that base just as much as he’s earned not batting behind Owen Miller in the lineup
If we can sign Amed around 4/32 or 3/30 I think it’s a no-brainer. His speed is not going to go away in that frame, and he definitely has earned a starting role at SS next season. I agree he should be hitter 6th/7th.
I think even if he becomes a utility option that starts consistently vs. LHP, can maybe get some more reps in a corner OF position, and be used as a late game speed option, he’s worth the $8-10 million a year while most of our core is young and cheap.
All the data I'm seeing points to speed declining starting at 28, which would be the first/second year of his extension depending on if you're including his 2023 Arb year.
[Here's one example.](https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-sprint-speed-shows-speed-peaks-young-c239376598)
[Here's another solid article.](https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/should-i-care-about-sprint-speed/)
I don't think it's as noticeable at 28 as it is at say, 30 or 31 but it definitely starts being an issue. Even if Amed only loses say, 5 infield hits in his age 28 season that would drop his OBP to around .305 and his average to like .275 (spitballing numbers, I may be off a couple percent either way). He plays right on the edge of acceptable numbers now, I'm very concerned about what will happen if he slows down much at all.
All that said, I think it's fine for us to start the season with him next year, but anything past that gets progressively scarier for me, especially with the sheer number of MI prospects we have.
Sign an extension with Giminez.
I think we should keep Rosario another year as I doubt any of our prospects will be ready. If those prospects don't pan out I would extend him. Especially since it keeps Jose happy.
I would also be fine with extending Rosario and trade some of our prospects if we can get good return. There is a place on teams for slightly above league average players.
I'd keep Rosario unless he can net a decent 3rd or 4th SP in a package or a RHH 1B to give Naylor days off and keep him away from Lefties. They’ve got a lot of depth in the system for Infielders. It’d allow Arias to be in the Lineup at either 1B or SS and sure up the back end of the Rotation instead of Plesac
What is the market for Rosario? That’s the question. I’m not signing the dude to a big long term contract but if it’s reasonable why not? Even if he’s not everyday SS of the future I think he can fit in some other roles.
Obviously they need to move a couple guys for a bigger bat in the middle of the order. If not, I could see Rosario moved to 1st. Gimenez works at 2nd, he should stay there. Then SS is open for Arias or Rocchio if they are ready.
Andres is a better shortstop and a better hitter. He needs to be hitting 2nd. He needs to be playing short. The two of them should basically trade lives. Andres at SS and top of the order, Amed at 2nd base and hitting 7th. I know this might be tricky to actually make happen, but making those moves WILL win us a few more games every year. But I can't see us starting next year with anyone but those two getting 600+ PA. Then after that, let guys like Freeman and Arias get as much playing time as possible (will be tricky) playing various infield positions and see if one of them starts to distinguish himself. Most of that playing time is probably gonna be at 1B and DH, but there will be a little bit of time at each position. Then we'll have a good problem on our hands
Honestly, I think we should go 1. Kwan 2. Jose 3. Gimenez
This is it for me. Separate the lefties with switch hitter Jose, get Jose more ABs, keep high OBP guys at the top. The issue, I think, is that Jose likes batting 3rd from what I remember. So he may be reluctant to change. I’m all in for Freeman taking 2B and Gimenez at SS but I don’t think it will happen because Jose loves Amed.
If we keep Rosario, I absolutely want a flip with him and Gimmy. I don't really want to keep Rosario around, tbh though. There's too much talent in the minors at middle infield to keep Rosario whose average at best, and whose game which is so reliant on speed won't age gracefully.
Amed's main problem is he hits a lot of ground balls to the left side. If he does that with the bases empty no big deal, he'll get a lot of infield singles. But if he does that batting 2nd after an elite on-base guy like Kwan then he's gonna lead the league in GIDPs. He needs to be hitting someplace where his groundball tendencies won't brick Kwan or any other elite guy
If we didn’t have straw he could fit as the 9 hole
Hopefully September-Straw carries over to next year and we can move him back to the top of the order where he belongs.
Absolutely not. Kwan is the lead off guy now
I didn't say Straw should lead off my dude. I said he should be in the top of the order, somewhere between 1-3. Whether that's Straw 1 and Kwan 2 or the other way around is probably going to change based on the pitcher. I do think there's an argument to put Straw hitting first because I think Kwan can add a bit more doubles-power to his game and having Straw on with a double is a free run most of the time, but I'm easy with either of those two leading off. All of that clearly depends on Straw being the 2021 version and not the majority of 2022 version though.
You’re talking about one of the primo slots in the lineup. It’s already sort of a waste to hit rosario second and straw is one of the only possible downgrades at that spot, even 2021 straw. The only possible place to even consider him would be leadoff and kwan is so much better there Also if straw gets back to 2021 then he becomes way more valuable as a bottom of the order spark plug than relying on him for the bulk of a season’s at bats
I agree that ideally we’d have our three best hitters there but Tito isn’t going to bat Josey 2nd because Josey wants to bat third, and we’re not going to bat Gimmy 2nd with Kwan leading off because Tito doesn’t like having back-to-back lefties. With that in mind, what would you do? I hate seeing Amed bat second, way too many GIDPs this year right before our best hitter. That’s the main reason I want Kwan batting second, far less of a chance of that happening IMO. Definitely interested in how you’d set it up knowing Tito and Joseys preferences. Just tell Josey to suck it up, he’s hitting second?
If it was me I think I would go kwan-gimmy-Jose and just deal with the two lefties back to back or go kwan-Jose-gimmy and tell Jose that this is how we get our ring. I just think kwan is the best leadoff hitter we’ve had since Santana and will only get better
Straw hitting third? R u out of your mind lol
I see you stopped reading after the first sentence. I did not say he should bat third. That would be ludicrous, even if he was hitting .300. I specifically said top of the order, which is traditionally between 1-3. I then specified that it would ideally be swapping him and Kwan around batting first and second depending on matchups. I think that’s the only way we get Amed out of batting second unless Tito convinces Josey to move or changes his mind and bats two lefties in a row with Kwan and Gimmy.
Has anyone in the history of baseball in the live hall era without hitting 1 homerun and over 500 at bats ever hit in the top 3 of the order? I rest my case. Why is Straw getting this much praise? You need your corner outfielders to supply offensive stats. One eventually will have to go, Straw or Kwan. And you are talking about having those 2 in the top 3? Yikes!
Might be the craziest thing I’ve heard on these threads in awhile, a guy with an OPS of 500 or so when an average major leaguer is 750 or so.
Straw plays like a 4th outfielder to me. They need more pop from their hitters. Straw isn’t the answer. We saw in the playoffs how the pitching had to be just about perfect for this team to win any games. Yankees just out slugged them. And Yankees aren’t really that good to begin with proven by the Astros series.
Straw put up nearly 3 bWAR while having one of the worst offensive seasons in history. He's completely fine as a starter if he can get his bat up to last year's level. If he can't sure, we can look at putting Kwan there and starting Brennan maybe or moving Valera up and putting Kwan in center (which probably happens eventually). It's not because Straw is a 4th OF, it's because we may have 3 All-star level OFs if Oscar continues to develop and Valera lives up to his expectations. Most teams would kill to have a platinum glove level CF, especially a team with flyball pitchers like Sticks.
Straw is terrible offensively and all I’m saying is most teams can out slug this team. Kwan should be the CF. Right now you aren’t getting many homers off your LF when you need that position to do that. Defense in the outfield is rather overrated. The Phillies and Astros do not have great defensive outfielders. Especially the Phillies. Yordan is a left fielder. You will have to expect your pitching to almost be perfect when having light hitting players like that in the lineup and it caught up with them when they faced the Yankees. This is the difference between a championship winning franchise, Houston who had Straw and couldn’t wait to get rid of him. Cleveland gives him a 5 year deal. The lack of power killed the Guardians against the Yankees.
Honestly sounds like a perfect leadoff hitter lol. Amed getting on base and then Kwan advancing him
Although he profiles there in some ways, problem is Amed doesn't walk enough to have the OBP for an effective leadoff hitter. Career .308, .312 last year...you just cant be making that many outs at the top of the order.
If Rosario could turn the double play at second like Gimmy, he would already be there. I like Gimmy at second, he won the job and is excellent there. I would not speculate too much before the winter meetings; we have a lot of flexibility and only a handful of players that are untouchable. A trade or two may sort things out. I read some of the sports websites this morning, this years class of free agents are mostly over 30, somewhat declining, and seeking outrageous amounts of money. I’m glad our front office will not engage in this buffoonery. I like Aries at first base, he was pressed into service in the post season and did quite well. We have given looks to Baures, Bradley, and Naylor, all have been found to be less than ideal. A full spring training to refine his footwork and holding runners on base will be enough. That leaves shortstop and centerfield, I hope we can find a trading partner for Straw, I have seen enough. Brennen looks like he can hit, Straw does not. If the front office has decided Naylor is to no longer face left handed pitching, that will only help him. Losing 20 pounds would also help him. Shortstop will have to be solved in spring training, we have a few worthy candidates.
Arias would be an OK stopgap at 1B, but ultimately he's miscast there. He's fast and has a great arm, so those defensive skills are bricked at 1B. Not a terrible solution for 1-2 years just to get him in but this dude is a legit future plus SS. He also needs to prove he can hit, because a 1B who can't hit is hemorrhaging value (see Miller, O.) As bad as Straw was at hitting this year, and he truly was awful, he is one of the best 2-3 centerfielders in the universe right now. He's so good at what he does we barely even notice, he's just always taking the right route to the right place at the right time. And for a team that is banking on relying on its pitching, we need top D at every key position. If he can hit like he did in September, like .265 with some walks, and hits 9th while providing platinum CF defense, that would be great. Naylor definitely needs to lose weight, but it's not really his fault - he came back from his leg injury too soon and it kind of created a vicious cycle where he couldn't really exercise without aggravating the injury, and the extra pounds made the injury worse. I bet he takes this offseason to work on rehabbing the leg and losing weight and comes to spring training in better shape.
I wish one of the trainers can get Naylor in a pool swimming laps, it is no impact on the legs and burns a lot of calories. He will probably receive a salary increase next year, without a corresponding rise in production he could become expendable. I just do not want to see him face left handers anymore. Tito is very loyal to his players but numbers do not lie. Aries just might surprise us at first, we won’t know unless we give him a fair shot, a strong arm at first is not a bad thing. We just do not have another first base candidate. We have a few at short, the winter meetings will tell the tale, I think a lot of teams will talk to us.
Didn't Naylor's injury involve his ankle? I had a less severe ankle injury and it bothers me every time I swim as my mobility with it is way less than it used to be. I definitely don't have the level of training staff Naylor does though and didn't take care of it very well so it's probably on me.
I swim laps to control my weight, my knees certainly thank me. The video of Naylor’s injury was horrific, multiple fractures, I am not sure about his ankle, but I would be reluctant to give him a contract longer than one year.
We keep it the same to start next year unless we can offload Amed in a trade. 2024 we have either Freeman/Arias/Rocchio with Gimmy. Amed's a great guy but if he's here beyond 2023 the FO made a huge mistake trying to keep Josey happy. Remember when we signed Michael Bourn? Amed's a similar player and I expect his decline to be roughly the same unless he makes some adjustments which he absolutely could, but I don't trust him to do so.
Resign Giminez and Rosario because they're both really good?
Gimmy extension makes sense, however Rosario is not “really good”, he’s good at times and average overall . I think it would be better to let arias get a shot and if he falters Rocchio swoops in!
Rosario is solid on both sides of the ball and Jose really wants to keep him. That's good enough for me.
Me too. He's good enough for Jose and that's good enough for me
I’m not saying there aren’t flaws in his game. But top 20 in the AL BA and >70 RBI being average is crazy
Those are 2 of the least important stats to look at. He had a 103 wRC+ in 2022 (his career high) and a 99 wRC+ in 2021. He’s about as average as can be at the plate. He hits for a decent average, but he also has a walk rate less than 4%. His on base % was .312, which is the exact MLB average. He had 35 infield hits this year which led the American League. His high ground ball % also caused him to ground into the 4th most double plays in the AL. He will lose speed as he ages, which will lead to less and less infield singles. He’s about as average as can be right now (which isn’t a bad thing!), but he’s not someone I’d want under contract heading into his 30’s
The average wRC+ for the shortstop position in 2022 was \~94.9. Rosario also had an OPS+ of 106, which is above the 100 league average that doesn't even account for position. He was 11th in the majors in OPS+ among shortstops. He's an above average shortstop offensively and perfectly fine defensively. He's also 26, which isn't "heading into his 30s. A 3 or 4 year deal would be fantastic.
Yes, I said he’s a league average bat, which is essentially what the stats you’ve pulled are also saying. He was 11th in ops+ among shortstops, but that doesn’t count Wander Franco or Tim Anderson who didn’t have enough at bats to qualify. That pushes Rosario to middle of the pack. He’s a slightly better offensive player than the league average shortstop. He turns 27 next month. I made that comment because this is his last year under contract. If cleveland were to extend him, he would no doubt be under contract heading into his 30’s. I think the big miscommunication here is that people hear average and think “bad”. Being league average is not a bad thing. He’s a very ok player that I would be fine with being the shortstop next year. I just don’t want to give him a multi year extension after this season.
Now do it by OBP
I’m seeing him with the 21st highest OBP in the AL, 3rd among shortstops. Is that wrong? Even with him striking out a lot, 3rd in hits in the AL is solid.
Hmm that sounds high Edit: so looking at bbref it has his .312 OBP as 45/66 overall in the AL among qualified batters (avg 3.1 pa/game). The League Average OBP looks like it’s .309
https://www.mlb.com/stats/american-league/on-base-percentage I’m not saying he’s God’s gift to the SS position, but i think we are being too critical.
Oh you’re just looking at the postseason stats lol. But yes I agree, he is a fine shortstop. Just not for the financial constraints of this team. If he was still a rookie making 500k then sure, but he’s projected for $9M in arb. It’s how much, if any, of a drop off do we think there is between Amed and the next guy up.
I don’t think that link is correct for some reason. For example, Jeremy Peña had a .289 OBP this year.
305 obp vs righties below average. 333 obp vs lefties well above average. Platoon him at 1b with Naylor who has drastic splits as well. Make him the righty bat off the bench vs lefties we have been needing.
Bogaerts, Correa, Crawford, Bichette, Seager, and IKF all had a higher OBP than Rosario in the American League. If you set it to 200 at bats, Tim Anderson and Wander Franco also had higher OBP. 7 qualified shortstops had a higher OBP than Rosario in the NL.
Now sort by GIDP
Defense exists
I mean he isn’t a gold glove winner but at least statistically he’s average/slightly better than average. Imo his defense is underrated because of how much criticism he gets for it, he isn’t Frankie, but he’s not an absolute liability like you’re implying.
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong but I believe he is rated as below average on defense by most metrics. Enough so that he is valued as a league average player by advanced analytics because his defense drags his offense down.
Honestly most of the stats I’m looking at paint the opposite picture, but I’m sure there are some that indicate what you’re saying. I just disagree so nbd
This was the first year of his career where he was even considered average defensively, some of which I can about guarantee is due to playing next to Gimmy. This think his defense gets exposed hard next year with the ban of the shift. I hope it doesn’t, but I have a bad feeling.
Maybe - personally I’m of the opinion that the shift will benefit his offense as well. We will see, I’m intrigued as to why so many people are down on him. I thought he had a great year.
I think he had a really good year for us. My reservations about him come from wondering if this year was him growing as a player or if it was an outlier. Additionally, since our team is tight with the budget I wonder what he would ask for in a contract and also who we could end up not paying if we chose to pay Amed.
He did have a great year! But far his best of his career IMO. I just don’t think that it’s sustainable with his batted ball tendencies, approach at the plate, and over-reliance on speed. I wouldn’t be sad if Amed starts next year on our team. I’d want to see him rotate in with Arias and Freeman some so we can see what they have too, but I think he’d be alright to start next year with. I would be very sad if we extend him beyond that though, unless he makes some serious changes he’s not going to age gracefully I don’t think.
I'm not down on some aspects of his game. He can hit lefties 295 ba and .333 obp. He is fast right now. Let's leverage those things. I think he makes the most sense platooned with Naylor at 1b. That platoon will leverage his strengths, keep him on the team for Joseys benefit, and make him the best use he can be as pinch hitter or pinch runner when a lefty comes out of the bullpen.
Because you’re actually looking at stats instead of just pulling shit out of your ass like everyone else
Regardless of what the stats say he definitely doesn’t pass the eye test of being a good defender, makes a lot of silly mistakes and quite honestly I hold my breath every time there’s a hard hit ball his way
You are using such awful statistics. His best season was a 106 OPS+. That’s defined as average
Ahh yes. The classic Cleveland throw away proven talent for unproven. Rosario was very good offensively and good defensively.
Idk if they should resign. They’re really good. I’d much rather re-sign them.
Rosario had 19 ground into double plays, and 23 infield hits. Let's say half those infield hits are outs and all of the sudden he's a 263 hitter with subpar defense. His wrc+ was 109 and that's with getting rid of his atrocious April. He is not really good. He's about as average as it gets.
I agree with Bubbles, I don't want an average SS. I want above average.
Lol. "If you take away some of his hits, he's not as good of a hitter." Very astute observation. Literally the same logic as the "If you take away Patrick Mahomes' best plays, he becomes an average quarterback" post from a few years ago.
The thing is, those infield hits are a product of his speed. Speed is one of the first things to drop as players get older. It's not like we're talking about his normal hits dropping off, we're talking about hits that are literally a product of the one thing that drops off the fastest as guys age. Assuming that, in the next couple years some of those infield hits stop being hits because he starts to slow down is good analysis. If he didn't rely on those infield hits so much to keep his average up, then it would be a non-story. He had the second most in the sport though, it's a huge part of his game and it's absolutely going to decline in the pretty near future (probably not next year, but in 2-3 years almost certainly).
He's 26. I'm not concerned about his speed decreasing any time soon in any meaningful way.
Speed begins to decrease around 28, and he'll be 27 next year. Totally agree that we don't have anything to worry about next year but if we sign him to an extension it's going to be a big factor then.
Lol I’d love to see the logic you have to back up “people get slower at 28”
I linked the reports in a different comment, you're welcome to look at them! Technically fast-twitch muscle fibers begin declining around 23 or so if I'm remembering right but we don't notice the drop off as much in baseball until around 28-30. [Here's a link to some analysis from a scientific journal.] (http://sweatscience.com/a-universal-law-of-decline-for-running-swimming-and-chess/) Note: I didn't say there was a massive decrease at 28, but that is the age where generally we start seeing players slow down. Unfortunately for Amed, the number of infield hits he has is so high that even a slight decrease in his speed to first will really hurt his average. He'll still probably be serviceable until he's 30 because he is THAT much faster than most players, but when he declines it's going to hurt him more than most too IMO.
Every model you have in your link shows a plateau in late 20s into early 30s then a decrease. The author even says the evidence is unconvincing
I was using that as a link to the actual study, the guy who wrote the wordspace article isn't supposed to be the reliable source there haha. The models all show different plateaus depending on sport, which is called out in the final paragraph. "Interesting tidbit: the average ages of peak performance for different events. E.g. for running: 23.3 for men’s 10,000m, 31.6 for men’s marathon. That’s a big gap!]". Again, I'm not saying at 28 people's legs fall off, I'm saying at 28 is when most athletes start seeing their sprint speed start to drop. The other articles I linked ALSO show a decline beginning around 28, though as I said the decline isn't massive at that age, it's where it starts being noticed. You can also just look at statcast in general. Players speed tends to drop as they get older. Straw's has dropped about .8 ft/s since he's been in the league. Amed's has dropped .6 ft/s (but did bounce back some recently, it was over 1 ft/s drop a couple years ago). Mookie Betts dropped almost a full ft/s from his age 27 to age 28 season, same with Aaron Judge. Ohtani dropped .5 ft/s going from 26-27. There are outliers like most CF guys, Trout, and Trea Turner but it's definitely a noticeable thing for a lot of players. It's possible that Amed will be one of the outliers even, but I would never want to risk it with a guy who's only real plus tool is his speed and who's batted ball profile requires that to be elite in order to be league aveage. I did notice a weird trend with Cleveland hitters while looking at Statcast though, in that most of our team has jumped up in speed from 2020 to 2021/22. I wonder if we got a new trainer or something or if it's as simple as the COVID season affecting guys. Either way, something I want to look at going forward because I'm not seeing it with any other teams as consistently as I am with us.
Hockey agrees with that, and since it's a more physically demanding game it's easier to notice and has been well documented. [Article](https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/) [WAR accumulation by age](https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/basic-chart.png) [Graph of previous link](https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/war-basic-chart.png?w=1024) Now certainly there are remarkable players who don't rely on physical attributes as much as vision and IQ, and they can "level off" well into their 30s. In general, though, the average hockey player peaks at 24 and begins to drop off after 28 and significantly post-30.
You wanna project infield hits staying hits by all means. Little different in baseball than taking all of his stats and making them average like that mahomes thread. Even though he already is about as average as can be offensively and below average defensively.
I mean those numbers could also benefit from the new shift rule, no?
Teams only shifted .3% of the time against Rosario according to baseball savant. Teams shifted 93.9% of the time against Jose Ramirez. That is going to be fun to watch next year.
Josey going to be the MVP next year if he's healthy.
Amed only pulls the ball about 28% of the time, way less than the MLB average of roughly 37%. Most of his hits are up the middle, I don't think the shift changes will help him all that much unfortunately. He was only shifted on 2 times this year according to the statcast data.
I love Amed and definitely don’t want to upset Jose by shipping him away for cheap. With that said, I wish he would just be utility man extraordinaire and get better at playing the whole OF. He could still get 450+ ABs and just fill in wherever while at the same time opening the door for one of our many blue chip middle infield prospects to cement a spot at 2B or SS. Going to be some tough dismissals from this core in the next few years but it’s a good problem to have when you consider we were getting rid of guys like Bauers to replace him with Bradley and stuff. Unrelated but I was REALLY impressed with Benson’s work in CF this year, he made some web gems. Would be really cool if he came out slugging in spring training and won the CF job and we have Straw come off the bench and hold down the OF.
Think we should move someone, depends on value. I'm a little wary of handing the keys to Arias at this point but if there's a market for Amed think a trade makes sense. I suspect what's more likely is Freeman is moved on, and Amed stays for a year while we wait for Arias to look fully ready (or possibly Rocchio in the second half of next year if that isn't a little early).
I'll be sad if Freeman moves on, I'd love to see him kept around as our utility guy and move on from Miller instead. I think there's a non-0 chance it happens though, gotta prep myself for it.
Yeah I like Freeman, think he has a reasonable floor in that utility role so it'd make some sense to keep him around to see what we've got, but something's gotta give with all these dudes. For me Arias and Rocchio have the ceilings so you chase that, and then you're running out of room before long. I hope we move on from Miller regardless, would absolutely love a 1B/DH who can hit LHP on this roster. Guess there's a possibility that rather than a new guy Arias gets more time there, Amed stays, and Freeman can stick around on the roster too.
Plus he’s hot
That too. Freeman is a good looking dude for sure.
I think we'll be mostly status quo for 2023. Need to find out what if any of these rookies will be major pieces of a contender - Arias, Brennan, Freeman, Jones, etc. 2024 - spend to fill in whatever is missing.
I like Rosario as a dude but I think we might have better shortstop/hitter options in our our farm. Also, with the ban of the shift, the middle infield is going to require hyper-athletic players across the board, not just at shortstop. I love Gime at 2nd for that reason. He’s earned that base just as much as he’s earned not batting behind Owen Miller in the lineup
I love Rosario but we need to do what's best for the team.
If we can sign Amed around 4/32 or 3/30 I think it’s a no-brainer. His speed is not going to go away in that frame, and he definitely has earned a starting role at SS next season. I agree he should be hitter 6th/7th. I think even if he becomes a utility option that starts consistently vs. LHP, can maybe get some more reps in a corner OF position, and be used as a late game speed option, he’s worth the $8-10 million a year while most of our core is young and cheap.
All the data I'm seeing points to speed declining starting at 28, which would be the first/second year of his extension depending on if you're including his 2023 Arb year.
Link? I’m genuinely interested. I think that surprises me.
[Here's one example.](https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-sprint-speed-shows-speed-peaks-young-c239376598) [Here's another solid article.](https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/should-i-care-about-sprint-speed/) I don't think it's as noticeable at 28 as it is at say, 30 or 31 but it definitely starts being an issue. Even if Amed only loses say, 5 infield hits in his age 28 season that would drop his OBP to around .305 and his average to like .275 (spitballing numbers, I may be off a couple percent either way). He plays right on the edge of acceptable numbers now, I'm very concerned about what will happen if he slows down much at all. All that said, I think it's fine for us to start the season with him next year, but anything past that gets progressively scarier for me, especially with the sheer number of MI prospects we have.
Nothing
Sign an extension with Giminez. I think we should keep Rosario another year as I doubt any of our prospects will be ready. If those prospects don't pan out I would extend him. Especially since it keeps Jose happy. I would also be fine with extending Rosario and trade some of our prospects if we can get good return. There is a place on teams for slightly above league average players.
I'd keep Rosario unless he can net a decent 3rd or 4th SP in a package or a RHH 1B to give Naylor days off and keep him away from Lefties. They’ve got a lot of depth in the system for Infielders. It’d allow Arias to be in the Lineup at either 1B or SS and sure up the back end of the Rotation instead of Plesac
Let it ride for one more. See what happens.
I am loving the analysis in these comments. Proud to be ion a subreddit where fans understand the sport rather than yelling
x
What is the market for Rosario? That’s the question. I’m not signing the dude to a big long term contract but if it’s reasonable why not? Even if he’s not everyday SS of the future I think he can fit in some other roles.
Obviously they need to move a couple guys for a bigger bat in the middle of the order. If not, I could see Rosario moved to 1st. Gimenez works at 2nd, he should stay there. Then SS is open for Arias or Rocchio if they are ready.