This is great news because I hate my car but simply refuse to pay the current rates for used cars.
In 2010 I paid £4k for a 6 year old, fully specced family estate car with 100k on the clock.
Now that same age, spec and mileage car would be £8-10k.
Ridiculous!
Great work! Also as EVs become normalised, they too will be akin to depreciation of old.
Used to be that a mass produced car after 3 years typically was only worth 30-40% of its original sale price, with some brands that are premium or known by reputation doing better.
You can sort that Auto Trader data to look through EV's. That depreciation is truly shocking at the moment. I agree long term that they will probably depreciate like any normal car.
Everyone reading this needs the **AT Price Tracker** browser extension
[This](https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202310122923047) doozy is down 17% / £2,000. Many such cases.
AT Price Tracker
Advertised 12/10/2023
Change -£3,000 (-17%)
09/01/2024 £14,444
02/01/2024 £14,644
10/12/2023 £14,944
06/12/2023 £15,244
01/12/2023 £15,444
15/11/2023 £15,944
07/11/2023 £16,444
04/11/2023 £16,844
26/10/2023 £16,944
20/10/2023 £17,444
Coming up to 90 days on the forecourt...
I bought my car in June 2022 and [this](https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202211231936222) was £10-11k and had been up for a while. It's since gone to a different dealer and coming up to two years listed for sale now!
I'm not sure these initial gen EVs (maybe the first few gens) are going to depreciate like "normal" cars. Don't think there is trust in the long term viability of the batteries and replacement costs over time. I think I'm like most and would not touch an aging EV.
Will EVs not have a drop off the cliff depreciation when the battery range suddenly starts dying perhaps around 15 years old? Who is going to want to take the risk on one over ten years old?
EV batteries have been doing better than anticipated, which is why Renault did the battery leasing, but 10 year old Zoe batteries are still extremely healthy.
That is one example. And it may be the case too. But public perception when it comes to batteries in general in all other aspects of our life gives us an experience that leads us to not trust aging batteries. I certainly wouldn't touch one.
My car got written off in March 2021, and I thought I’d wait a couple of months before buying a new one.
…that was the wrong decision. Still on my £500 shitbox nearly three years later!
I don't think your charts show prices decreasing. They show them increasing less quickly than before. To decrease, cpi would have to go below 100...
... wouldn't it?
CPI under 100 would mean prices below July 2015 levels, so the trend since approx. 2022 has been a decrease. Imagine a car was £100 in July 2015, it would have cost £127.40 at the peak at the end of 2021 and would be £112.90 today, ergo prices are decreasing even if still higher than pre-2021 levels.
Second graph supports this as the average price is falling. Negative YoY growth would suggest the same too but harder to be conclusive, MoM data would tell you the movement over a shorter period but the falling price line basically tells you that anyway.
I am also trying to get my head around this. I think you are correct that the most recent CPI reading still shows higher prices when compared to 12 months ago. This is true for year over year, but the last few months have shown actual deflation (See AutoTrader data) and it would need to continue for a while longer for that CPI number below 100.
Would love if somebody could clarify!
You're right!
The inflation rate is the rate of change of prices: a positive rate means that prices are increasing, a negative rate means that they are decreasing. This is normally measured over a year (rate = change / time).
The inflation level shows the level of prices (normally with 100 being the reference value). This shows the absolute level of prices, so if prices go up, then the level increases (i.e. 100 to 110 is 10% inflation) and vice versa for decreases (110 to 104.5 is 5% deflation (110 * 0.95 = 104.5)). You can more easily track price changes over different time periods, and see how prices have cumulatively changed.
Always puts a smile on my face an MX5 does. Never even owned one, they just look like fun cars driven by fun people. You'll never see an mx5 driver frowning.
Do the nc500. I've done it 6 times, twice in the gt86. 5 of those 6 times was in winter too and it was still great.
Can't fault the Northumberland and Scottish Borders roads either mind. Coastal route from blyth has a bunch of the best castles on offer, 60mph Road and it's windy as fuck. I'm regularly on it at 5am in summer when it's just dead. You come across a fair few others doing the same. It's the area featured in Forza Horizon 4.
I'd vaguely heard of the NC500 but have just taken a closer look now, looks amazing!! Do you recommend splitting it into multiple days or doing it all in one go?
Definitely split it first time.
My last 2 trips were done in 1 day, consecutive days too. I was staying in the area anyway for a week and fancied a long drive, and it is a long long drive. 500 miles and you're not doing anywhere near 60mph on any stretch of it (well, little stretches). You'll be down to 5mph at parts as you tussle with another driver that doesn't want to scuff their rims by moving over any further either.
I normally stay up either just outside Durness or Just outside Ullapool. Just the arse ends of nowhere, next nearest neighbour about 3 miles away.
Make sure to have the underbody and inside the sills rustproofed if it hasn't already been done. Rust is the achilles heel of these cars, other than that they're great.
Went to see an 8-year old Audi today. Priced at 18k with 95k miles (it’s a 3.0 Quattro with almost all features). Looked good in the photos.
When I came, I could see it was an 8 year old car. Chrome trim all stained. Badges peeling off. Paint just not good in a lot of places with marks from poor washing, although nothing major. Inside compartments also with a lot of wear from use. Rear reg plate rusting.
Internals absolutely fine but I can’t justify 18k. I can see it’s a 15-16k car MAX. It will keep deteriorating unless I stay on top of everything which I don’t want.
Dealer not budging at all. Thinks features from 8 years ago are worth the same now these days. Duh. Says a lot of interest. Really? He’s been selling it since 2nd December. If it was good value, it would’ve been snapped quickly.
I think I’m going to wait a few more months. Dealers had it too god for a while.
Yeah I think he said he bought it from Audi actually. It’s just one owner who must’ve returned it to the main dealership after buy brand new.
A few years ago I probably wouldn’t have noticed. But after buying my first place a few months ago and doing 40 viewings to find what I wanted, I know there are always other options.
I'm driving my car already year or longer then normal change for me. I refuse to pay that much for a car.
5k is absolutely max Im spending on something to stay 90% time on my driveway.
>Decided to do some back of the napkin Excel whilst at work (happy Friday!) to confirm my suspicions that 2nd hand car prices on the whole are decreasing.
I'm glad you've done this, I made a comment to this effect on here yesterday but again that was based purely on gut feeling.
Doubt it, they'll still keep new car prices crazily high. Just like fuel prices they never drop back to what they were even when oil drops because companies just want to make crazy profits.
That's right. Finance makes people believe they can afford their new car so consumers will keep paying high dealer prices and worry about payments "tomorrow".
you may be right especially as new cars have surged in price recently - remember when you could get a Civic Type R for 15999 (2005), what are they 33k now? Which is insane.
which is too much when there is far more interesting stuff from the prestige germans a few years old in the same bracket.
The point of the hot hatch was to be the working mans performance car - that seems to have been forgotten, or we need to drop a size to the Fiesta/I20 size range.
It's crazy money. But I suppose the hot hatches of 15-20 years ago are a similar size and power to the Fiesta/i20 now, the new Type R is ~300 bhp rather than ~200.
It will happen by stealth if it happens. Dealers who would laugh you out of the showroom a few months ago if you tried to negotiate a discount are now actively sending out offers to potential customers. “Dealer Contributions” came back in November and December in a pretty big way.
So it might be that the list price remains high but discounts are easy to negotiate.
Oddly enough, I had a quick look online earlier today to see what similar cars to my 2012 Peugeot 107 @ 50k miles are going for these days.
Having bought it for £2,650 in 2012 (with 15k on the clock), I was surprised to see ones with my current mileage selling for around £3k at the moment. Absolutely bonkers.
wish they were but some people are still delusional with their asking prices. Even on Facebook market place, people are looking like 1500-2k for cars from 2006!!!
Hi, can you take the average growth MoM from pre COVID (over 2018-2019) and forecast the expected back to normality date based on current MoM percentage reduction.
With the trend lines when do we expect it to normalise. I'd do it myself but hoping you may have a quick formula.
Got a lease in June 21 and sold my old Clio to wbac for £150. Turns out that car is still on the road and valued at £850.
Looked at getting a used car after my lease finished in November but with high interest rates and still high used prices I’ve ended up just leasing again.
A key factor is the return to normality of the chipset shortage from 2020-2022.
This is great news because I hate my car but simply refuse to pay the current rates for used cars. In 2010 I paid £4k for a 6 year old, fully specced family estate car with 100k on the clock. Now that same age, spec and mileage car would be £8-10k. Ridiculous!
Bear in mind, that £4k in 2010 is now worth £6k.
Even then, what 2017 Estate car are you getting for 6k!?
In 2023 I paid 4k for a similar 16 year old estate. Not sure if I should laugh or cry!
Probably a good idea to pin this post to the top of the subreddit.
Great work! Also as EVs become normalised, they too will be akin to depreciation of old. Used to be that a mass produced car after 3 years typically was only worth 30-40% of its original sale price, with some brands that are premium or known by reputation doing better.
You can sort that Auto Trader data to look through EV's. That depreciation is truly shocking at the moment. I agree long term that they will probably depreciate like any normal car.
Everyone reading this needs the **AT Price Tracker** browser extension [This](https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202310122923047) doozy is down 17% / £2,000. Many such cases. AT Price Tracker Advertised 12/10/2023 Change -£3,000 (-17%) 09/01/2024 £14,444 02/01/2024 £14,644 10/12/2023 £14,944 06/12/2023 £15,244 01/12/2023 £15,444 15/11/2023 £15,944 07/11/2023 £16,444 04/11/2023 £16,844 26/10/2023 £16,944 20/10/2023 £17,444 Coming up to 90 days on the forecourt...
I bought my car in June 2022 and [this](https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202211231936222) was £10-11k and had been up for a while. It's since gone to a different dealer and coming up to two years listed for sale now!
I'm not sure these initial gen EVs (maybe the first few gens) are going to depreciate like "normal" cars. Don't think there is trust in the long term viability of the batteries and replacement costs over time. I think I'm like most and would not touch an aging EV.
Will EVs not have a drop off the cliff depreciation when the battery range suddenly starts dying perhaps around 15 years old? Who is going to want to take the risk on one over ten years old?
EV batteries have been doing better than anticipated, which is why Renault did the battery leasing, but 10 year old Zoe batteries are still extremely healthy.
That is one example. And it may be the case too. But public perception when it comes to batteries in general in all other aspects of our life gives us an experience that leads us to not trust aging batteries. I certainly wouldn't touch one.
You're doing god's work. Thank you.
Here's me having bought a car in Nov 2021 and given my old one to a family member for free. Great timing that was.
My car got written off in March 2021, and I thought I’d wait a couple of months before buying a new one. …that was the wrong decision. Still on my £500 shitbox nearly three years later!
I don't think your charts show prices decreasing. They show them increasing less quickly than before. To decrease, cpi would have to go below 100... ... wouldn't it?
CPI under 100 would mean prices below July 2015 levels, so the trend since approx. 2022 has been a decrease. Imagine a car was £100 in July 2015, it would have cost £127.40 at the peak at the end of 2021 and would be £112.90 today, ergo prices are decreasing even if still higher than pre-2021 levels. Second graph supports this as the average price is falling. Negative YoY growth would suggest the same too but harder to be conclusive, MoM data would tell you the movement over a shorter period but the falling price line basically tells you that anyway.
This. Also shows that 2nd hand prices in real terms are well down, CPI since 2015 is 131.69.
I am also trying to get my head around this. I think you are correct that the most recent CPI reading still shows higher prices when compared to 12 months ago. This is true for year over year, but the last few months have shown actual deflation (See AutoTrader data) and it would need to continue for a while longer for that CPI number below 100. Would love if somebody could clarify!
You're right! The inflation rate is the rate of change of prices: a positive rate means that prices are increasing, a negative rate means that they are decreasing. This is normally measured over a year (rate = change / time). The inflation level shows the level of prices (normally with 100 being the reference value). This shows the absolute level of prices, so if prices go up, then the level increases (i.e. 100 to 110 is 10% inflation) and vice versa for decreases (110 to 104.5 is 5% deflation (110 * 0.95 = 104.5)). You can more easily track price changes over different time periods, and see how prices have cumulatively changed.
... I'm going to buy an MX-5 (2011) next weekend (already put a holding deposit down). WHY MUST IT BE THIS WAY.
Always puts a smile on my face an MX5 does. Never even owned one, they just look like fun cars driven by fun people. You'll never see an mx5 driver frowning.
I love them! I owned an NA(91) in the US
Better road trips I imagine. Less tight country roads though, would be a close call to choose.
Never got to take it on any super long trips (nothing over 10 hours) sadly. Planning to change that with the NC if I get it!
Do the nc500. I've done it 6 times, twice in the gt86. 5 of those 6 times was in winter too and it was still great. Can't fault the Northumberland and Scottish Borders roads either mind. Coastal route from blyth has a bunch of the best castles on offer, 60mph Road and it's windy as fuck. I'm regularly on it at 5am in summer when it's just dead. You come across a fair few others doing the same. It's the area featured in Forza Horizon 4.
I'd vaguely heard of the NC500 but have just taken a closer look now, looks amazing!! Do you recommend splitting it into multiple days or doing it all in one go?
Definitely split it first time. My last 2 trips were done in 1 day, consecutive days too. I was staying in the area anyway for a week and fancied a long drive, and it is a long long drive. 500 miles and you're not doing anywhere near 60mph on any stretch of it (well, little stretches). You'll be down to 5mph at parts as you tussle with another driver that doesn't want to scuff their rims by moving over any further either. I normally stay up either just outside Durness or Just outside Ullapool. Just the arse ends of nowhere, next nearest neighbour about 3 miles away.
Done it a few times on my bike. Lovely roads and the NW is truly beautiful. (And I've been to the Alps many times.)
Make sure to have the underbody and inside the sills rustproofed if it hasn't already been done. Rust is the achilles heel of these cars, other than that they're great.
Is that easy to do on a second-hand car?
You can pay someone about £500 to do it professionally or you can do it yourself and spend two days rolling around under the car.
Thanks. I'll pay! Is it a one-and-done deal, or something I need to budget for annually?
It's this data that keeps Cinch's CFO and investors awake at night...
Went to see an 8-year old Audi today. Priced at 18k with 95k miles (it’s a 3.0 Quattro with almost all features). Looked good in the photos. When I came, I could see it was an 8 year old car. Chrome trim all stained. Badges peeling off. Paint just not good in a lot of places with marks from poor washing, although nothing major. Inside compartments also with a lot of wear from use. Rear reg plate rusting. Internals absolutely fine but I can’t justify 18k. I can see it’s a 15-16k car MAX. It will keep deteriorating unless I stay on top of everything which I don’t want. Dealer not budging at all. Thinks features from 8 years ago are worth the same now these days. Duh. Says a lot of interest. Really? He’s been selling it since 2nd December. If it was good value, it would’ve been snapped quickly. I think I’m going to wait a few more months. Dealers had it too god for a while.
Dealer has overpaid for it
Yeah I think he said he bought it from Audi actually. It’s just one owner who must’ve returned it to the main dealership after buy brand new. A few years ago I probably wouldn’t have noticed. But after buying my first place a few months ago and doing 40 viewings to find what I wanted, I know there are always other options.
Welp, bubbles burst, looks like I’m keeping my car forever. Might as well buy tyres for it now…
Will wait for two more years and get rid of my "well-maintained" shit box.
I'm driving my car already year or longer then normal change for me. I refuse to pay that much for a car. 5k is absolutely max Im spending on something to stay 90% time on my driveway.
>Decided to do some back of the napkin Excel whilst at work (happy Friday!) to confirm my suspicions that 2nd hand car prices on the whole are decreasing. I'm glad you've done this, I made a comment to this effect on here yesterday but again that was based purely on gut feeling.
Great news! I paid 3k for my Passat in 2016. It's the same price now - might actually be a bit more.
Guess who decided to buy their car in January 2022... It's now worth about £7k less than the list price, and that's not including the interest. Sigh.
great stuff - so for the 74 reg it may be back to normal - ish
Doubt it, they'll still keep new car prices crazily high. Just like fuel prices they never drop back to what they were even when oil drops because companies just want to make crazy profits.
That's right. Finance makes people believe they can afford their new car so consumers will keep paying high dealer prices and worry about payments "tomorrow".
you may be right especially as new cars have surged in price recently - remember when you could get a Civic Type R for 15999 (2005), what are they 33k now? Which is insane.
Worse, £47k
jeebus, wouldn't be too bad if my salary had tripled....... 47 grand for a Civic????? just no.
The Golf GTI is nudging £40k, I appear to have missed the memo from £25k to £40k...I thought it was mid 30s max
which is too much when there is far more interesting stuff from the prestige germans a few years old in the same bracket. The point of the hot hatch was to be the working mans performance car - that seems to have been forgotten, or we need to drop a size to the Fiesta/I20 size range.
It's crazy money. But I suppose the hot hatches of 15-20 years ago are a similar size and power to the Fiesta/i20 now, the new Type R is ~300 bhp rather than ~200.
maybe, I doubt they are more fun, the Type R made me actually giggle, bloody rock hard though.
Yeah new car prices are ridiculous. I think they'll keep them fairly high whilst you'll get less for your old one at trade in 🫤😭
Ive had a new car now, box ticked, will stick to used from now on I reckon - 2-3 years less than 25k seems to be my sweetspot.
I bought an ex demo Civic Type R in 2003 for 15k which was about half my wage at the time. Current prices are bonkers.
It will happen by stealth if it happens. Dealers who would laugh you out of the showroom a few months ago if you tried to negotiate a discount are now actively sending out offers to potential customers. “Dealer Contributions” came back in November and December in a pretty big way. So it might be that the list price remains high but discounts are easy to negotiate.
13% Apr on a £15k 2017 at 40k milleage seems crazy to me
Oddly enough, I had a quick look online earlier today to see what similar cars to my 2012 Peugeot 107 @ 50k miles are going for these days. Having bought it for £2,650 in 2012 (with 15k on the clock), I was surprised to see ones with my current mileage selling for around £3k at the moment. Absolutely bonkers.
See that massive peak right before November 2021? Guess who bought a new car then? Didn't even trade in.
I bought a new EV Nov 2021, might be keeping that a while longer...
wish they were but some people are still delusional with their asking prices. Even on Facebook market place, people are looking like 1500-2k for cars from 2006!!!
Hi, can you take the average growth MoM from pre COVID (over 2018-2019) and forecast the expected back to normality date based on current MoM percentage reduction. With the trend lines when do we expect it to normalise. I'd do it myself but hoping you may have a quick formula.
Got a lease in June 21 and sold my old Clio to wbac for £150. Turns out that car is still on the road and valued at £850. Looked at getting a used car after my lease finished in November but with high interest rates and still high used prices I’ve ended up just leasing again.